Like many of you, I have been interested in two things this season: whether Fields could be the guy (he is) and how good of a draft pick the Bears could get. With two weeks to go, I simulated the final two weeks using 538’s NFL [predictions](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nfl-predictions/games/) for game odds and using the strength of schedule info from [Tankathon](https://www.tankathon.com/nf) to break ties. This was repeated many times to get a decent approximation of probabilities the Bears would fall at certain picks. If you’re curious, you can take a look at the code [here](https://github.com/jakewebs/Fun/blob/master/draft.py).
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As you can see, the Bears have about a 26.3% chance at the top pick, which would most likely occur via the Bears losing out and the Texans winning one of their last two. Additionally, the Bears have about a 96% chance of a top 4 and 99% chance of a top 5 pick, so they should definitely have some good options available, whether it be a trade back for a decent haul or a future star like Will Anderson/Jalen Carter.
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Note that I did not update the strength of schedule info after simulating the final two weeks, which is why results like the Texans being unable to get the 5th pick appear even though this may happen if enough games go the right way to change HOU/IND strength of schedules. However, the Bear’s strength of schedule is much stronger than the other bad teams so it doesn’t really affect the Bear’s odds (and thus I don’t really care lol).
https://preview.redd.it/caq1de350i8a1.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0ce796395e6523d77ea74ea40c38d5709ffdb09