Full Steelers 2023 Offseason Prediction


[Link to Google Sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1p8idGg9zufUstiOrYy9g38x_8k6yIJIaw55GqHtXRrQ/edit?usp=sharing).

**CUTS**

Only move I wrestled with here was cutting Myles Jack. Although he is a good player and not particularly overpaid, he’s only got one year left and the $8M savings was enticing. Even if we keep Jack I’d want to target ILB heavily in free agency and the draft, so at that point it made more sense to seek cheaper options. The coaches clearly trust Spillane, and at less than half the price that made more sense.

**RESTRUCTURES**

Why these four and not higher paid guys like TJ and Minkah? All four of these contracts expire before Kenny Pickett will be due his extension (if he earns one). We can afford to inflate their cap numbers a bit in the meantime and we avoid having TJ or Minkah’s cap hits get out of hand.

**RESIGNINGS**

Since this is all fake money, I intentionally gave slightly higher contracts than I think these players will ultimately get. I think most people would agree that I was generous but hopefully not unreasonable with these numbers. I did this to handicap myself so I couldn’t go on a crazy unrealistic spending spree. But I would be surprised if any of these players signed for bigger contracts either here or elsewhere.

That said, the only players I really prioritized were Cam Sutton and Terrell Edmunds. Both are solid if not spectacular players and deserve the significant raises they’re getting. Ogunjobi* is a solid player but not a long term option, and the rest are just depth signings. Any of them would be easily replaceable.

*When I started this process I had intended to let Ogunjobi walk and sign JJ Watt. I doubt he will unretire, but if he does I would absolutely take him over Larry. They are similar players at this point in their careers and I’m in it for the memes.

**FREE AGENCY/EXTENSIONS**

**Tremaine Edmunds:** This is why we cut Myles Jack. The Steelers shatter their franchise record for a free agent contract because Edmunds checks all of their boxes. Young, tons of starting experience, NFL bloodlines, defensive captain, wears the green dot, position of need, position the Steelers value, and of course – the memes. If there was a way to bring in Jason and Travis Kelce, I think the Steelers would look into it.

**Juju Smith-Schuster:** Young, tons of starting experience, position of need, and meeeeemes baby. But seriously, in a vacuum the decision not to resign Juju has proven to be a bad one. They never really found a slot receiver to replace him and it will now cost double or triple what it would’ve cost last year to bring him back. Although if the Steelers had resigned him there’s very little chance they would’ve drafted George Pickens or traded Claypool for a 2nd round pick. Maybe it will be worth it in the end. If Juju is open to returning, he would complement our other weapons almost perfectly.

**Josh Dobbs:** Dobbs is a capable backup that we’re obviously familiar with. He will be a good mentor to Pickett but won’t bring any danger of a QB controversy.

**Bud Dupree:** Yep. We’re fully bringing the band back together. While not technically scheduled to be a free agent yet, the Titans are sure to cut him to save over $15M in cap space. He might draw some small interest from other teams, but his best fit is here as the top backup on the edge.

**Alex Highsmith:** I saved myself some cap space to make sure I could give Highsmith an extension over the summer. I still have enough room to sign our draft class and some in-season moves if necessary. Highsmith’s contract is right in line with what the Dolphins gave Bradley Chubb just a couple months ago.

**DRAFT**

Gonzalez will work his way to becoming CB1 sooner rather than later. Likewise, Simpson and Smith will immediately work into a heavy rotation with Spillane and Ogunjobi, respectively. Bergeron starts off as the top swing tackle and will be pushing Dan Moore if Moore doesn’t show improvement. Leota will have time to develop behind our top 3 Edge players, but with huge financial investments in Watt and Highsmith, we need to start developing cheap backups now. We finish with a couple late round flyers on a slot WR and QB to fill out the roster. If Cropper can show any return ability, he might take Sims’s roster spot.

**FINAL THOUGHTS**

Let’s address the elephant in the room: half of you already have your pitchforks in hand because I didn’t address OL more aggressively. It’s true the OL is still not great, but they developed into a damn good run blocking unit and an acceptable pass blocking group. They’re no longer a liability. If the offense is going to improve, it will come from Pickett and Pickens’ development. If those two don’t take leaps in Year 2 then the offense will struggle anyway.

More importantly, there’s not one player among the starting 5 that is overpaid or so awful that you need to replace him right away. Moore and Dotson are the weak links among the group, but since both of them are still on rookie contracts it makes sense to see what another year of development and continuity can do for them. If anything, I think the Steelers could look for a LG in free agency, but I don’t think it’s necessary.

On defense, this unit has the makings to lead the league. We have excellent star power at every level and our top 3 draft picks can be brought along relatively slowly. Seriously, if you don’t get excited by that defense on paper then I don’t know what to tell you.

I did push a good amount of money down to 2024 with less than $2M in projected cap space for the following season. However, we don’t have any free agents we’ll need to resign (Dotson and Levi Wallace are the only names worth mentioning). We also have several restructure candidates as well as players we could probably cut given that we’ve already drafted their replacements: Ogunjobi ($8M), Spillane ($3.5M), Dupree ($3M).

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