apparently this is an unpopular opinion based on comments i’ve gotten, but i wouldn’t sign Timo long-term unless it’s a very team-friendly deal. hear me out:
first, i don’t see timo signing long-term for less than $8.5 mil AAV, and i don’t blame him. [evolving hockey’s current projection is around 8x$8.8 AAV](https://twitter.com/CJTDevil/status/1660603127458873344?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1660603127458873344%7Ctwgr%5Ed0e0580ac70118f90d9388c212bd914035b071e1%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fpucksandpitchforks.com%2F2023%2F05%2F24%2Fnew-jersey-devils-timo-meier-vs-jesper-bratt-contract-value-debate%2F). he’s in line for a $10 million QO this year, and then he can hit free agency with a higher salary cap next year and get the UFA premium. he’d probably get $9+ mil AAV in free agency unless it’s an absolute trainwreck of a season for him this year.
don’t get me wrong, signing Timo for 8x$8-8.5 this offseason would be fine because he will produce…but let’s think bigger picture.
the cap this year is $83.5 million. if we sign both bratt and timo long-term this offseason, we will have ~$47 mil tied up on just 6 players the next 4 years (bratt, timo, jack, nico, dougie, palat). During those 4 years, luke, nemec, mercer, and [goalie] will need sizeable contracts. all of our bottom-6 and bottom pairing will also need contracts.
is that doable? maybe…but only with cap gymnastics, and we wouldn’t be a real player in free agency. then, once those 4 years are up, we will need to extend nico and jack…those contracts will NOT be as friendly as they are now.
it’s inevitable that we would have good players/prospects become cap casualties. meanwhile, timo palat and dougie will be carrying high cap hits into their 30s.
alternatively, we give Timo his 1 year $10 million QO this year and try to make a run. next offseason, another team will sign him to a mega deal taking him from ages 28-36. it would be a big hit losing timo, but imo it would make the team better off in the long run
4 comments
No. If we sign him long term and get Bratt to a deal then we have our top six locked for the foreseeable future with Holtz coming in and can fill out our bottom six through players in our system already on entry contracts. No way is Fitz thinking to just go all in for a run next season with Timo on a one year deal, he’s consistently said he is building the team for long term success rather than boom and bust. Also, it wouldn’t make sense for Timo, he’s not going to want to take a one year deal and risk injury going into UFA. Fitz knows what he’s doing and will get the job done. I’ll start worrying about the cap when Fitz starts worrying about it.
You’re going to take Timo long-term and you’re going to like it!
There is no dilemma. This is not a difficult decision. You sign both Bratt and Meier for what they’re worth which is 8.5ish. It is very doable. You’ll have to cut corners at some point in the future but if you have a good management team like everyone seems to think we do (I still am not fully convinced they’re the geniuses people say) then you will find quality depth pieces for cheap. Don’t skimp out and lose your stars. I have a feeling they’re lowballing Bratt yet again. That’s the bigger issue than Meier.
There is no dilemma. We have the room to sign both, and if we actually can’t fit both in, Bratt is the one out the door, not Timo. Timo is priority #1 this offseason and him resigning is massively more important than resigning Bratt.