[1st and 10 from the NYJ 15](https://streamable.com/9mjo6n)
On the first play of the game, I LOVE this playcall. Considering the Jets’ tendencies and how aggressive the Falcons defense is, this is the perfect opportunity to try to hit a deep shot off of play action. Garrett Wilson on the deep over is the primary read, but he’s basically bracketed by the two safeties and isn’t open. However, with that deep safety driving on the over, Jason Brownlee, who’s basically running a clearout route, has a 1-on-1 deep with a corner who’s a step behind him and sprinting to catch up. This ball has to go to Brownlee here. The pass protection is great, Boyle has room to take two hitches and let it go, and with Brownlee’s size and leaping ability, he has a great chance to make a play and set the tone for the offense early. Boyle doesn’t have the best arm in the world, but even an underthrow is okay because it gives Brownlee a chance. To me, it looks like Boyle never even acknowledges that route, staring Garrett down the entire time, and then panic throws it away.
[1st and 10 from the NYJ 9](https://streamable.com/25n74b)
The Jets introduced a new formation this game – an 11 personnel look with Duane Brown replacing the TE. The first play they call out of it is a counter to Brown’s side, and the right side of the line actually opens up a pretty nice hole. Carter Warren in particular does a great job doubling the 3 technique and getting up to the playside inside linebacker. Dalvin Cook, for some reason, tries to hit this through a very slim B gap, instead of bouncing it outside where he might have a 1-on-1 with the corner. We pick up 4 yards here, but it seems like there was more there. Either way, I like the wrinkle that Hackett throws in there, as Brown makes an excellent block on the playside edge.
[2nd and 6 from the NYJ 13](https://streamable.com/pv0ccs)
On a second and medium, instead of playing for third and short like we seem to do often, Hackett calls another play action pass. This time it’s a flood concept, and Tim Boyle hits Dalvin Cook for a first down. However, look at the spacing between the two receivers at the top. Jason Brownlee is running a deep corner route, while Garrett Wilson is running the second-level sail route. However, with Brownlee being the one off the line of scrimmage, as well as the much slower receiver, they’re basically in the same spot as they come out of their breaks. Instead of a high-low on that playside corner, he’s covering both of them at once, so it’s lucky that Cook is open because he’s the only one with a chance on this play.
[1st and 10 from the NYJ 24](https://streamable.com/g2w7mq)
Continuing with some unpredictability, the next play is a Xavier Gipson end-around, with Tyler Conklin coming on the split flow action as a lead blocker. The Jets start in a 2×2 formation, but they shift Conklin from the right to the left side. As a result, the backside safety drops down into the box, and the blocking assignments probably change here. Initially, with the two-deep look, I would guess that Jason Brownlee is coming to crack the Will linebacker (#55), and Carter Warren is sealing the Mike linebacker (#53). But when the safety drops down, he becomes the new Will, and now #55 is the Mike. Brownlee correctly identifies this and blocks the right guy (probably in the back, but it doesn’t get called), but Warren still goes to #53, leaving his man unblocked in the hole. If Warren can seal that edge, Conklin has the corner covered up and there’s a chance for a big play. I’m not saying this is definitely what the blocking assignments are, but I’d find it hard to believe that we’d want Warren blocking the Sam instead of the Mike here.
[2nd and 9 from the NYJ 25](https://streamable.com/b8pgqd)
I’m throwing this one in because I’m tired of just highlighting bad plays every week. This is probably the most dominant rep our offensive line has had all year. The Jets are running outside zone to the right into a light box. For the first time since I’ve started watching the All-22, I think all 6 guys in the run blocking unit win their rep. Starting from left to right, Tyler Conklin holds up in a 1-on-1 against a defensive end. Carter Warren gives Conklin (not much) help and then gets to the Sam LB and knocks him backwards. Wes Schweitzer not only holds up in a 1-on-1 against the playside 3 technique, but even drives him a couple yards down the field. Joe Tippmann and Laken Tomlinson execute a perfect Ace block to the Will LB and run both of their guys all the way out to the numbers. And Mekhi Becton hinges against the defensive end, washing him up the field and creating a massive hole for Dalvin Cook to cut back into. The result is an easy 14-yard gain and a first down.
[1st and 10 from the ATL 41](https://streamable.com/gh9bzr)
And now we come back with maybe the most infuriating play of the afternoon. The Falcons are in a single high press man look, and the Jets have the perfect playcall for it. They’re making it look like a boot to the right, but Garrett Wilson runs a corner route and then breaks back to the post. Against that deep safety, Tim Boyle has the entire left side of the field to throw this ball. He’s set up to throw it, but for some reason, he doesn’t. The safety is sitting a little farther inside than you’d like, but with all that room to work with, you can underthrow this ball by 10 yards and still pick up at least 20, with a chance for Garrett to break a tackle and score. Instead, Boyle comes off of it super early and throws it in the general direction of Allen Lazard. We saw this exact concept go for a touchdown to CJ Uzomah last year, and this could’ve been the difference between winning and losing.
[3rd and 12 from the ATL 43](https://streamable.com/ks0uu0)
Two plays later, after we run for a loss on second and long again, Tim Boyle has a chance to make up for that miss. Xavier Gipson is running a deep out from the slot against the Falcons’ Cover 3. When Allen Lazard cuts inside, the corner closes the gap on Gipson to cover a potential seam. His hips are facing inward and his momentum is carrying him inside, so when Gipson breaks out instead, he’s forced to make a difficult baseball turn, and Gipson beats him outside easily. A good quarterback sees that leverage and anticipates Gipson winning on that route, but Boyle drops his eyes to the pressure. Instead of hanging for a little bit and putting the ball on the sideline anywhere between the 25 and 31, he tries to run back inside to escape the pressure and gets sacked. This sack is neither on the coverage nor the offensive line, I’m putting it entirely on Boyle.
[1st and 10 from the NYJ 33](https://streamable.com/b5244i)
Another run play where it looks like we have a missed assignment, and I’m guessing it’s Jeremy Ruckert here. The Jets are running a same-side inside zone with split flow action from Nick Bawden. With these runs, you typically leave the end man on the line of scrimmage for whoever is coming across on the split flow. The way I would block it, Laken Tomlinson and Mekhi Becton would double team the 3 technique to the Mike LB (#53) and Ruckert would come down on the Sam LB(#55), with Bawden kicking out the edge. On the snap, #55 comes so far inside that he almost takes himself out of the play and effectively swaps positions with the Mike from a run blocking perspective. You’d like for Becton to see that and just let him go, but he has no way of knowing where Breece Hall is, and you never want to leave playside LBs unblocked. When he goes inside, Ruckert instead should probably work up to #53, who’s now basically the Sam LB. Instead, he’s blocking the edge, so when Bawden comes across and blocks him as well, we have a double team on the edge and nobody blocking the linebacker in the playside B gap. I’m not sure if Ruckert thought Bawden was going to get the corner since the edge is inside, but that would leave one of the linebackers unblocked, which can’t happen on inside zone. Either way, someone misses an assignment here, bringing up second and long.
[2nd and 7 from the NYJ 36](https://streamable.com/vfr0qy)
And on that second and long, the Jets actually have an answer, on a play action throwback screen to Breece Hall. It doesn’t pick up a first down, however, because Mekhi Becton is looking for a block inside when there is none. I understand why he looks inside initially, Laken Tomlinson doesn’t have the best leverage on #96. However, once Tomlinson seals him and Breece cuts outside, Becton has to notice that there are no more unblocked defenders inside and get upfield. He tries to help out Joe Tippmann, who doesn’t need it, while the corner he should be blocking makes the tackle for a minimal gain. This play should be a first down and potentially more if we block it up correctly.
[3rd and 5 from the NYJ 38](https://streamable.com/23j0wb)
On the very next play, the Jets fail to pick up a first down. The first thing you notice is Garrett Wilson absolutely blowing by the corner at the bottom of the screen that’s just sitting at the first down marker. I’ll be honest, I have a hard time putting this on Tim Boyle too much. The Falcons are in a Cover 1 look, and Garrett is running what’s basically a seam route. On the other hand, Jason Brownlee and Tyler Conklin are running a drive concept, which is a good Cover 1 beater because of the rub that Conklin gives and the runaway routes at different levels. Up until the throw, Boyle actually plays this pretty well. Brownlee is the first option here, but with the left edge defender dropping into coverage, this is probably not getting a first down. Conklin is the second option, and he’s working an in against an outside leverage safety. This is open and the right throw for Boyle to make, but he misses it by a couple yards. I don’t know if he thought Conklin was going to break earlier or if he just missed, but he has to throw this with extreme anticipation because of the pressure. The reason for this pressure is because of a really difficult stunt from the Falcons. With a linebacker and a DB walked into the A gaps, the Jets are fanning this protection and having Nick Bawden pick up the safety, which is the right call in my opinion. However, those two defenders run a stunt on Joe Tippmann, with the safety hitting him from the side and the linebacker looping around. Really, this is just a well-designed blitz, because it’s extremely difficult for running backs and offensive linemen to pass off stunts when they’re at different levels vertically. If I were coaching this formation, I’d want Bawden up in the A gap so that he doesn’t have to start 3 yards deep, and everyone knows he’s not going out for a route, but it’s a lot easier to say that watching film. Overall, this play looks bad because of Garrett running wide open down the field, and you’d love for Boyle to peek the corner and just throw it up. But based on the defense pre-snap, there’s no reason to expect that corner to just squat at the first down marker and let Garrett blow by him. Now if Aaron Rodgers is at QB, maybe he peeks the corner and throws it up to Garrett, but the drive should be and ends up being open. It’s just a miss. This is one of those plays you file away and draw something up for next time they give you this look.
[2nd and 10 from the NYJ 25](https://streamable.com/0tagsy)
The Jets come out in that 11 Heavy personnel with Duane Brown on the wing. This time they send Xavier Gipson in motion and run Duo back to the right. Instead of running with the motion, the linebackers all shift to the left, and the corner bumps inside. At this point, the Jets need to change their blocking assignments. Before the motion, #55 is the Mike and #53 is the Sam, so the plan is to have two double teams to those two backers, leaving the Will, #37, unblocked. However, when the defense shifts and nobody runs with the motion, those assignments change. Now that the corner is in the D gap, he becomes the Sam LB, #53 becomes the Mike, #55 becomes the Will, and #37 is out of the picture. But the Jets don’t make this assignment change. What needs to happen is that Carter Warren and Wes Schweitzer need to double the 3 technique to the Sam LB (the corner in this case) and Joe Tippmann and Laken Tomlinson need to double the 1 technique and work to the Mike. Instead, they work the doubles to the original Mike and Sam, and the result is that there’s a defender in the C gap that Breece should be running through. With 7 defenders in the box and 6 blockers, this isn’t a great look, and you have to leave one man unblocked. That man needs to be the one farthest from the play, which is either the left edge defender or the Will LB. It cannot be the guy in the playside C gap.
[1st and 10 from the NYJ 39](https://streamable.com/hky5n9)
I’m gonna do something I did not see myself doing before I started this breakdown, and that’s give Nathaniel Hackett his props for calling a significantly better game thus far than what we’ve seen in past weeks. Up until now, this 11 heavy personnel has been almost exclusively runs, and it looks like another one. But now, the Jets run a flea-flicker off of it, and the result is a huge gain to Xavier Gipson. The one criticism I have of the design of this play is that it’s too easy for the defensive backs to see what’s happening. Usually when you run a flea flicker, you want the pitch to be a bit obscured to sell the run fake, but you can see the outside corner on the right turn and bail as soon as Breece goes to make the pitch. Still, he’s in a tough position to cover Gipson, and there’s all that room between the numbers and the sideline for Tim Boyle to work with, and he gives Gipson a chance to make a play. The Jets took and hit a lot more deep shots in this game than they have recently.
[1st and 10 from the NYJ 11](https://streamable.com/md2ujo)
Please let me know when you find the hold on this play, I’m still looking for it.
[1st and 15 from the NYJ 6](https://streamable.com/2a0vok)
On the next play, the Jets try to run a screen to Breece Hall, who catches it and immediately is met in the backfield. The problem with this play is that Joe Tippmann is the only offensive lineman who gets downfield to block. On most screens, you need some offensive linemen to allow their defender to win so that they can get downfield and the QB can throw it behind the defensive lineman. The Jets, ironically, don’t let a single defensive lineman through. Usually you would see the three interior linemen on the screen while the tackles short set and run their defenders up the field, and I think that’s what’s supposed to happen here because Laken Tomlinson and Wes Schweitzer are trying to seal the defensive tackles from the left side. But nobody is blocking the weakside inside linebacker. If Tomlinson and Schweitzer just fired out, allowed their defenders to beat them, and then got out to the second level, we’d have 3 offensive linemen against 2 linebackers, which is a matchup anybody would take. I’m not sure I even blame any of the linemen individually here – it looks like it’s what they’re being coached to do. I’ve talked about how our screen game is extremely basic and predictable in the past, but the way we block it is what seems to really be at fault. And it’s not even the same one or two guys every time, it really feels like there are design issues and missed assignments across the board, and that applies beyond the screen game as well.
[3rd and 8 from the NYJ 13](https://streamable.com/o2oyi3)
The physical limitations of Tim Boyle as a quarterback are really evident in this game. The Falcons are in a muddy pre-snap look, but they eventually roll to a Tampa 2. Tyler Conklin is the #3 receiver running a seam, and the guy who has that responsibility for the Falcons is the linebacker walked up into the right B gap. A seam against Tampa 2 is a really good option because unless you’re playing against somebody like Fred Warner, most linebackers are gonna have a really difficult time running with the seam, let alone being able to make a play on the ball. So Boyle makes the right read, he just misses this throw by a mile. The throw needs to be high and on Conklin’s face or back shoulder. It’s not an easy throw, but this is open by NFL standards. To top it all off, Boyle should probably get called for a false start too. This is one of those plays that demonstrates how we’re sort of between a rock and a hard place with our QB situation. Zach Wilson can make this throw pretty easily, but I have my doubts on whether he even sees it. Boyle at least recognizes the coverage and knows where to go with the ball, but his arm talent is really lacking. This is why we went all-in on Aaron Rodgers – he both sees this route develop and completes this pass.
[2nd and 15 from the NYJ 20](https://streamable.com/z7cs6m)
Once again, a confusing rep from Tim Boyle, compounded by a bit of a poor route from Garrett Wilson. The Jets have two receivers on the right side that are both running slants. The idea here is to read the nickel corner. If he doesn’t jump on Garrett’s route, then that’s where the ball should go, but if he does, that should open the window to hit Jason Brownlee behind it. The pre-snap look gives a heavy indication that the nickel corner is not going to allow Garrett to get inside. He’s in off man but a full yard inside. Now I think Garrett could really help both himself and Boyle out by stemming this route inside to try to get head up on the corner. If the corner continues to stay inside, that opens the window for the outside slant even wider. Instead, he tries to give a head fake that does nothing because the corner is fine with him breaking outside. But I don’t know why Tim Boyle still tries to throw this ball. I understand trusting your best receiver to win against man coverage, and Garrett will usually do that, but that slant is NEVER there. If Boyle hits his back foot and puts the ball on Brownlee in stride, he probably gains 10 yards minimum.
[2nd and 9 from the NYJ 43](https://streamable.com/rbwo18)
Tim Boyle’s final play is another great playcall from Nathaniel Hackett. This one builds off of not only the 11 Heavy personnel that they’ve been running out of, but also the first play of the game where we had a shot to Jason Brownlee. For that play, Brownlee ran a deep inside flag route and Garrett Wilson ran the over to that same side. This time, we run play action with the same route look, but Xavier Gipson is running a deep post instead of the flag. Again, the protection is more than enough for Boyle to read the defense. Garrett is the primary read again, but if Boyle checks the safety at all on the top of his drop, he’d see his hips fully turned to the left and running to that over. That deep safety is also Jessie Bates, who is not only one of the best ballhawks in the league, but a huge gambler when he thinks he knows the play. So you could argue that he should not only be a priority to find every play, but that you could also expect him to drive on this over before the ball is even snapped. Gipson, meanwhile, has a step on his man and there is nobody else that could come within 10 yards of making a play on that ball. Now I wouldn’t fault Boyle so much if he threw a good ball, because Garrett does have a step on his man. But this is anything but a good ball. It’s even more obvious that Boyle has no idea where the deep safety is because he throws it so far down the field that Garrett can’t even catch up with it. This play is a touchdown if it’s on target to Gipson, a huge gain if it’s on target to Garrett, and even Allen Lazard is open underneath. Instead, it’s the easiest pick Jessie Bates will ever have, and could potentially be the last pass Tim Boyle will ever throw in the NFL.
[1st and 10 from the NYJ 49](https://streamable.com/jh33cj)
This is the exact same flood concept we ran earlier in the game that had poor spacing, this time to the right side and with Lazard running the deep corner. Again, the spacing is equally bad. This time, though, Dalvin Cook is running a slow and lazy flat route. Trevor Siemian tries to throw it to him, but the linebacker catches up to Cook despite being sucked into the A gap on the play fake. If Cook runs this route full speed and beats the linebacker to the edge, it’s an easy first down. By getting to the flat quickly, that would also potentially open up a window downfield if the corner drove on it, although that likely wouldn’t have happened on this play due to the coverage. Still, it shows a lack of detail with this offense that contributes to our struggles.
[1st and 10 from the ATL 48](https://streamable.com/ycvi57)
On the next Jets drive, Trevor Siemian motions Tyler Conklin from the right to the left. After seeing the defense rotate, he checks out of the initial play into an outside zone run to the right side. Looking at how the defense adjusts to the shift – bringing a 7th guy into the box – I don’t know why Siemian checked into this play. You can see from the back angle that the three defenders on the right side of the offense have outside leverage on the Jets three offensive linemen on that side. In particular, Joe Tippmann’s reach block on the 1 technique is going to be very difficult, and that’s the guy who ends up making the tackle. With the Falcons in a Cover 1 press look, I would be checking to a some kind of man beater, like a slot fade from Garrett Wilson, until they stopped showing this coverage. Maybe Siemian doesn’t have the authority to check into something like that, but either way, this is a tough look.
[2nd and 11 from the ATL 49](https://streamable.com/ecsvmk)
The play after that, the Jets have a play action pass dialed up. Garrett Wilson and Xavier Gipson are running a dagger concept up top against the Falcons 2-high look. As Trevor Siemian hitches up in the pocket, Garrett Wilson has a step on his man, who has his back turned and is sprinting out of the hook-curl zone. This is perfect because while the two safeties are way over the top and taking away that seam route, Gipson is going to be wide open running a dig against an outside-leverage corner. The pass protection is excellent, aside from Dalvin Cook, but Siemian panics and escapes the pocket for absolutely no reason. This puts him in the path of three defenders, leading to a strip sack and a huge loss. This is an inexcusably bad sack that is once again 100% the fault of the quarterback.
[1st and 10 from the ATL 48](https://streamable.com/72xegp)
A backbreaking turnover with under 3 minutes to go. The Jets are running the Yankee concept again with Garrett Wilson on the post and Allen Lazard on the over. The Falcons are in a Cover 1 man look again, but they look like a team that has seen this concept several times already today. The deep safety is overtop of the post, while the other safety drops underneath right into the hook zone where Lazard is running to. If Trevor Siemian has time, Garrett is probably the ideal throw because he does end up baseball turning the safety. He’s actually trying to go to Lazard instead, and there’s a window if he can laser the ball in there accurately, so I don’t fault him there. The problem is the pass protection. The edge defender for the Falcons is a defensive back, and with the split flow action to sell the run, Carter Warren doesn’t get the depth that he needs to get out to the speed rush. Dalvin Cook notices this and aborts the fake, but then basically tries to catch the DB when he turns the corner and allows him to hit Siemian’s arm. It’s eventually reviewed and called a fumble, and the Jets’ best chance at taking the lead is over. Replacing Michael Carter with Cook as the third down back was a major downgrade in pass protection, and it’s shown up on film several times since we cut him.
[1st and 10 from the NYJ 37](https://streamable.com/6tg33m)
As time is running down, the Jets have one last chance to take the lead. After hitting Xavier Gipson on a deep shot down the sideline, they have a first down at the 37-yard line. They have a perfect call for the Falcons Tampa 2 defense – mirrored hitches and inside fades with a seam down the middle. The seam is a great route here, but Trevor Siemian stares it down the entire time. If he works either of the inside fades, not only are they probably open, but if the safety closes hard outside, it opens up the window for the seam. The snap is a little off, but it’s catchable, and there’s no reason for Siemian to rush his dropback like he does. It almost looks like he panics and moves to the seam too fast, because if he takes a normal drop and works the right side, which he only gives a peek to, Jeremy Ruckert is going to be wide open. The window on the seam is extremely type, and the throw is too far inside for Gipson to make a play.
[2nd and 10 from the NYJ 37](https://streamable.com/wzxml7)
The very next play is an even worse example of Trevor Siemian moving too fast through reads. The Jets are once again in a perfect call against the Falcons’ Cover 2 defense with Garrett Wilson running a corner and Xavier Gipson running a return route underneath it. The corner stays with Gipson, and Garrett is as open as can be on the corner. There’s a little pressure up the middle with the T-T stunt, but Siemian makes no attempt to buy any time and let the play develop, instead opting to just dump it off over Breece Hall’s head on the checkdown. Siemian didn’t even play a full half of football, but he had a few plays where he just panicked, rushed his process, and missed open guys downfield.
—
This game might have been the most frustrating loss of the season. For once, Nathaniel Hackett was not the problem. We called several play action shot plays and there was a noticeable lack of those “Hackett special” plays like 4 verticals or all hitches or curls. The offensive line made their share of mistakes, but it was a lot better of a performance than they’ve had in recent games. If Aaron Rodgers played this game with the same playcalls and the same pass protection, he would’ve had a chance at 400 yards with the amount of deep shots that showed up on film. Even Zach Wilson would have probably hit a couple of them, which probably would’ve been enough to win. Unfortunately, this game came down to Tim Boyle (and to a lesser extent, Trevor Siemian) playing terrible football.
Some other thoughts on this game:
1. Garrett Wilson probably should have gone over 200 yards this game. There were at least 3 plays he could have scored 40+ yard touchdowns on. Instead, he had three catches – one long one down the sideline and two in the left flat where he created separation and the ball was thrown behind him. I know he’s had some drops this year but we are wasting his legitimate superstar potential in this offense.
2. Dalvin Cook as the third down back was a disaster from the beginning. Michael Carter had his issues with drops, but he was significantly better as a pass blocker than Cook has been. He gave up a sack in the Bills game on a missed assignment, he gave up a strip sack on a potential game-winning drive here, and he’s nowhere near good enough as a receiver to make up for the lack of blocking ability. It’s gotten to the point where we’re putting Nick Bawden in the backfield as basically a sixth offensive lineman.
3. The offensive line has looked… slightly improved over these last few weeks? I think Wes Schweitzer’s return has definitely helped, but Carter Warren is still making mistakes at right tackle. To me it looks like there’s potential there, but he definitely needs work on recognizing his assignment and passing off stunts, whether that’s in-game reps or just more coaching. The 6-OL personnel group that they used was moderately successful when they blocked it right, and the pass protection overall was pretty solid. The penalties are still a problem though – we can’t have so many false starts. It sucks to say this, but I think the tackles we had to start the year (Brown at LT, Becton at RT) are probably our best option right now.
4. If this was an average game for us outside of quarterback, I really believe Aaron Rodgers has us between 7-5 and 9-3 and in contention for the division. Zach Wilson would have most likely won us this game, but this should’ve been a blowout with an average starting QB. This is now the third game that we’ve lost that a top-25 quarterback probably wins, and that’s without considering the Chiefs and Chargers games that Rodgers would have made a difference in as well. I know people have been wanting to just clean house right now, but if we get Rodgers back next year with an improved offensive line (which is a MUST for Joe Douglas if he wants to keep his job) and one more weapon at receiver, this is a playoff team.