[JFresh] Here’s how all 32 teams rank in all situations expected goal differential per game VS goal differential above expected

10 comments

  1. I don’t know if there is a god, but if he does exist he fucking hates Minnesota sports.

  3. Looks like NYR are getting a cookie tossed to them in the First Round from this

  5. Expected goals per game shows more of how you possess, out chance or out create ‘expected’ chances.

    differential above expected shows more of how the actual finishing outpaces your expected.

    Models have limitations and the stats don’t account for everything, naturally. In lieu of better models and whatnot, the difference between goals above expected vs expected either quantifies: luck, finishing/goal scoring ability, or efficiency in the offensive zone, or a combination of said factors, or other factors I neglected to mention due to lack of knowledge.

  6. Kinda unrealated to this graph but the oilers really got fucked likely having to play Vegas in the first round

  8. Our defensive structure was sooo good in the first half for the season and went to shit after the TDL.

    Clearly this is Okposo’s fault for bringing the bad Buffalo voodoo with him.

  9. I’m genuinely confused as to how folks can take ~75 games and chalk up GD > xGD to good luck or the reverse to bad luck. It’s an impressive level of training yourself to not believe your lying eyes.

    An exercise: look at each of the 3 columns for the xGD graphic. Which of those columns has the best teams? Which has the worst? Best column = 1, Worse = 3.  Now look at the GD graphic. Which of those columns has the best/worst teams? Best column = 1, Worse = 3. You want to have a high xGD, but good teams also tend to outperform xGD.

    Which is more likely, that xGD isn’t a perfect stat accurately summing up a complicated and chaotic game, or the entire NHL season is basically luck and some teams are just lucky for 7 months? Bananas.

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