Franz Wagner’s awful awesome season… and what comes next

Franz Wagner’s awful awesome season… and what comes next

[Music] fron Vagner had an awesome season fron Vagner had an awful season so what’s in store for the Magics for dour it’s time for locked on Magic you are locked on Magic your daily Orlando Magic podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team everyday and you are indeed locked on Magic today is June 11th it will be June June 12th 2024 my name is Philip Rosman Reich I’m the senior writer over at orlandomagic.com you follow me on Twitter at Philip rror OMD on today’s episode of lockon magic we break down fron vogner’s season what to make of the year that he had the things that he did well the things that he didn’t do so well and what that means for his future and the Magic’s future on on top of that we get to all that coming up here in just first we want to thank you again for making lock on Magic part of your day every day no matter when you listen to us whether it’s first thing in the morning whether it’s right when we upload we truly appreciate you making lock on Magic part of your day every day remember this’s a great lock on podcast covering every single team in the NBA to search for locked on and the team you’re looking for the lockon podcast Network it’s your team every day the last image that we have of fron Vagner is is unfortunately a a bad one um his year started with the highest of highs of gold medal at the at the FEA World Cup another kind of star making performance with an incredible game against the US in the uh in the in the semi-finals it felt like once again after another strong season in international play that fron voger was due for a great season the way his season ended and and we have to book end that of course the way his season ended was of course with confusion with just the feeling of per being perplexed how did such a promising season for him turn into this utter frustration I’m going to paint a positive picture because I I I do believe fron vager had a very good season so I’m going to pen a positive picture here but I do have to lead with the obvious part fron vogner had one of the worst game seven performances in NBA history John Starks thought that fron Vagner had a bad game seven and I will give fron Vagner all the credit in the world in that tiny interview room in Cleveland outside the Magic’s locker room he sat there by himself looked at that box score and was trying to find answers as much as we were to a one for 15 performance in such a big game has a way of coloring the entire experience the entire essence of a season and every you know Jamal Mosley talked about it Pao Ben Carrol talked about it the magic would not be in that game seven without fron fer because he had an incredible game four he had a great game six one bad game should not Define a season but unfortunately elimination games do that elimination games leave you with that bad taste in your mouth and and France promised and I K him at his word he he is going to lose a lot of sleep and he is going to figure out why he had that kind of a game and why that happened but the fact of the matter is that game seven was a continuation of a frustrating season it was a continuation of a season where a lot did go right but some big things went wrong France vogner had a career season I want to make this really clear he had a career season he was excellent in so many important ways for this SE 19.7 points per game of career best career best 3.7 assists per game career best five 5.3 rebounds per game career best 85% from the fing on a career high 4.4 free throw attempts per game he shot 48.2% overall only slightly worse than what he shot last year in a career best season he averaged 11.7 drives per game according to data from second Spectrum he made 53.6% of his shots on drives he made 60.4% of his shots within 8 feet on 9.1 attempts per game up from 58% on 7 and a half attempt Ms per game fron vogner was so good this year he got downhill got to the B even in the playoffs 18.9 points per game so slightly down from his regular season average we’re not going to pretend otherwise but 6.9 rebounds per game and 4.4 assists per game he stepped his he didn’t score as much which is important not sitting here and saying he wasn’t but he did everything this magic team could have asked for he was excellent on defense switching out on Donan Mitchell at times but excellent on defense throughout the entire season his shot wasn’t going down he was getting to the basket he was finding the holes to get to the Lane to get all the way to the hoop and finish and he was a better playmaker and decision maker on top of all that France vogner had a really good season I I I just want to reiterate that because he was put so much pressure on defenses everyone had to account for him and when he did have his big games like the early season game against Charlotte or any game against Washington um the big game that he had against Detroit and yes those are all bad teams but fogner was just a model of consistency all year long the only downside to all of it the only thing he didn’t do well was his shooting his three-point shooting and his shooting didn’t show up in the playoffs too he shot only 40.8% in the playoffs but vogner shot 35.4 and 36.1% from three in his first two seasons he dropped to 28.1% last year and the biggest challenge now everyone has to have is how does he fix that is that something he can fix because at the end of the day all the good things that he did all the positive things that I just described the bad shooting overshadowed all of it and it does deserve its own segment so we’re going to talk about it in the next segment but it overshadowed everything about him all the positive and all the good that he did this year there is no reason to sell your fron Vagner stock if you’re and I saw people do this but if you’re selling your fron Vagner stock stop it he is really good and we’ll see what he does at the Olympics this year and the Olympics are early this year they’re in Late July instead of late August like the World Cup he will have plenty of time he was dealing with ankle injury had an ankle injury in the World Cup you know again you’re starting training camp maybe two weeks a week and a half after the World Cup ended he had ankle injury in January he had an ankle injury late in the season fron voger is an Iron Man he will play through anything but we can’t pretend like that maybe didn’t affect him a little little bit and affect his shot and affect his lift which all of us seemed to think was the problem but he still found a way to contribute and I will give France Vagner all the credit and if there’s a reason to believe in his future stardom it’s that even without such an important element he found a way to contribute he found a way to contribute every single night every single game fron vogner did something good that helped his team win that helped his team be competitive that helped his team stay in the game and that’s all you can ask for from your young star that is all you can ask for from a player like fron vogner you are gonna ask for more you want him to be a star you want him to be an All-Star and that means he’s playing at an elevated level he’s playing at an elevated level of expectation but from a growth and development standpoint fron took some major steps forward this year he just took one giant step back in an area that is so important so what happened with fron Vagner shooting why did his shot fall apart so much and does that mean his season was a lost one does that mean his season was a failure we’re g to talk a lot more about what happened with fron Vagner coming up here in just a moment but first today’s episode of lock on Magic is brought to you by our friends over at betterhelp um look we we all carry around different stressors big and small um whether it’s something that’s affecting us on the court affecting us at work affecting us personally when we keep them bottled up it can affect us negatively if we don’t address these issues headon 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lock on sports day 247 streaming Channel if you’re getting ready for game three of the NBA finals on Wednesday the best place to get ready for it is with the locked on podcast Network they’re gonna have previews for that game plus the Stanley Cup Final plus the best in the NFL plus the best in the m in MLB all throughout the day on the lock on sports today 247 streaming Channel get the can’t miss analysis opinions and news from local experts who know their team best that’s what you really want you don’t want the shouting you don’t want the narratives you want the unvarnished truth from people who cover their teams every day streaming 247 on YouTube or the free Amazon Fire TV channels app the lockon sports day 247 streaming channels part of the lockon podcast Network your team every day obviously the obsession that the biggest problem the Orlando Magic face uh today is their lack of shooting they’re 24th in the league in three-point field goal per 29th in the league in three-point field goal attempts per game like we we all know the stats at this point and unfortunately the Magic’s probably highest volume three-point shooter France Vagner shot sub 30% and well I I I say this all the time your perception as a three-point Shooters more important than your actually actual ability to hit threes we did get to the end of the season where both fron vogner was passing up on taking open threes it it it did become a mental thing um it did become a not a confidence issue and teams were playing him to allow him to shoot threes and again credit France voger the three-pointer wasn’t there all year long a for the most part he did not stop taking threes he still took open threes when he got them but he had attacked off the dribble he was not afraid to attack to to get to the basket to still find a way to contribute and again France vogner just gets back to his three-point percentage from last year and from his first two years in the league he’s gonna average 20 points per game he’s gonna you know that’s probably going to help Pao get to 25 just having that extra shooting and that extra trust out there but there’s no getting around it France vogner did not perform as a shooter this year he did not deliver what the magic need from the perimeter this season and that is of course a major concern that is of course a huge issue that the magic have to resolve and and have to get and the only way they’re going to resolve it is yes they’ll add some shooting this off season but so much of the Magic’s three-point Improvement is going to come from internal Improvement it’s going to come from fron Vagner getting back up to 35% or Pao banero staying at 35 36 37% getting a few more spot up opportunities perhaps Jaylen Sugg staying at 40% Anthony Black backing it up Jed Howard you know they’re gonna add shooting you know whether it’s Malik monk or tyus Jones or D’Angelo Russell or whoever it is the magic are gonna add some shooting there’s no doubt about that but they’re going to still need some internal improvement from the three-point shot and no one is going to get more than fron vogner and again it’s hard to say what the problem was he still got plenty of good looks according to nba.com tracking data he shot 31 and a half% on 2.7 attempts for game on wide open threes when the closest Defender is six or more feet away and 25.7% on 1.6 per game when the closest Defender was four to six feet away that’s 4.3 of his 4.63 point attempts per game again if he shooting just 35% if he’s making a a three a one and a half threes or two you know again two two threes per game on those types of shots and the magic are generating even more of those shots which we hope that they will with with the additions we’re expecting this Summer that changes his game that changes the Magic’s offense completely I I will say I will we will do an episode on this probably after free agency in the dog days of summer the Magic’s offense is not far from being a good offense um I know that’s hard to say they’re 24th in the league in offensive rating um worst offense among all teams that made the postseason but if you add some three-point shooting make your free throws and reduce turnovers you do those three things I think this offense will be a top half in the league I think this offense will be comfortably top half in the league um a lot of the things the magic were bad at are young team things and be things that are completely within their control and so if fron Vagner can become a better three-point shooter and not even better if he bounces back to where he was last year that’s gonna be more than enough for this magic team to reap the benefits to get the most of it the magic don’t need to change fron Vagner shot profile he gets to the basket a ton we talked about the driv through he takes um four threes per game like honestly let’s get that up to five like the magic needed need a couple guys making taking five threes per game magic need to take more threes that isn’t that who this team was and I was fine with the number of attempts to Magic take they they tend to settle sometimes when they’re taking too many threes but they need to work for more threes that is going to make their offense better um again more quality threes let’s say let’s leave it at that fron vogner takes quality three-pointers when he is taking a three sometimes you’ll do that step back so you know you give him one one or two of those every so often but most of fr vogner 3es are good three-pointers he just missed them it’s a make or Miss leak and so the question that’s haunted everybody is why I would posit the ankle injury left over from FBA from the FEA World Cup probably slowed him down a lot more this season than anyone would would be willing to admit uh fron voger is an Iron Man that guy will play through anything he missed a week of action at the World Cup because of that ankle injury the World Cup ends a week before training camp or two weeks before training camp so you don’t have a lot of time to rest and recover um it’s a lot now for those concerned about the Olympics the Olympics start in Late July they’re over by August 10th I believe the Olympics end on August 10th or 11th that gives him a full month that gives him Mo Pao if he plays Jo Engles if he’s still on the team Goa batad if he’s still on the team that gives whoever the magic have in the Olympics a full month to get ready for the for training camp so Olympics are not as crazy as the World Cup the world up is very late in the summer so I think that’s part of it I think some of it is that foger shot was just off you know again like so much of this is about timing so not being able to get lift throws your shot off and fron is a very flat shot if there was a concern about him in his shooting it was that his shooting form is a little bit flat so again you know we we talk about this a lot with Markel folz Mark Kel you know lost some lift and that ruined the timing of his jumper um I you know I I wouldn’t say it was any noticeable how bad if fronza lift was off but it’s just missing a lot of shots short um kind of a flat angle on his shots who knows maybe he tinkered with it too much and and went the wrong way but it did get to a certain point where fron was passing up open threes and that’s the thing that can happen he’s got to take threes and the magic need to have confidence in him to take threes and he needs to have confidence to take those threes and this summer the things that fron vogner talked about coming off his playoff run and he did not shoot well in the playoffs Cleveland did a very good job eliminate you know kind of neutralizing him a lot uh and a lot of that has to you know I I mentioned this before the series began whoever Evan Moy wasn’t guarding is who the magic is who the magic needed to attack with they put Evan Mobley on frons for a long chunk of time there was that little narrative that the magic were able to attack Evan Mobley that wasn’t true moble had a very good defensive series he did a very good job on Pao and fron you know again was just not there but this is the deal we are now in the results business it is no longer about development it is no longer about are you getting better are you progressing we are in the results business the magicar playoff team the winning window is open they’ve got to walk through it they’ve got to win that’s all that matters right now is winning basketball games and so now comes the struggle now comes the difficult part fron enters this season with some questions now for the first time in his career and questions that he should have the latitude to answer what is at stake now in fron Vagner this season with everything about this magic and how do the magic play in their future with fron vog unfortunately coming off a season like this where he did so much good but there was one over arching negative thing that clouded the whole thing we got to the magic have to ask themselves what role does fron actually play and that’s what we’ll get to coming up in just a moment but first it’s time for quick word from our friends over at FanDuel there it is uh over at FanDuel summertime means baseball the NBA finals and more and you can bet it all on right now new customers get $200 it’s two z z in bonus Bets with any winning $5 bet that’s 200 bucks you can use to bet everything from the finals MVP Jaylen Brown and Jason Tatum now co- favorites for finals MVP last I saw who’s going to hit one out of the park and so much more visit fanduel.com lockon and add a big win to your summer bucket list visit FanDuel America’s number one sports book this is obviously a big summer for the Orlando match we anticipate that this is the kind of The Last Summer the magic will have to spend in free agency and it’s important for them to spend um France Vagner is extension eligible he will be on a new contract for the 2026 season Palo van Caro’s Max contract is going to follow right behind that the magic are not going to have a lot of wiggle room under the salary cap here in the for in two years time um mer expecting that the magic will consider at least giving fron Vagner a Max offer sheet or Max contract next summer if not this summer um that would pay him roughly 38 M A Sal starting salary of $38 million don’t be so roughed up about the number that’s 25% of the cap and that that will decrease um over time that’s going to be the reality of the magic summer and they have to ask themselves a really key question um if if you think fron Vagner is potentially worth the max it is beneficial for you to wait uh for salary cap reasons uh most importantly but if you think that he’s worthed the max it’s probably best for you to wait to say okay prove it we we we are ready to give you a Max we think it’s more beneficial to wait and and save the kind of cap savings and the cap hold savings on that but we will talk about this next summer prove to us go out there and prove it because unfortunately the playoffs do make you ask questions about your roster we’ve been asking a lot of questions whether it’s about Wendell Carter whether it’s about Cole Anthony whether it’s about the magic Supporting Cast and what players can do the playoffs make you ask a lot of questions and the magic are still young enough that they should allow players to answer some of them they’re not at a stage where they should make inclusions like you know I said this a lot last year about wend Carter wend Carter deserved the opportunity to show us that he could be a starting in the playoffs did he show us to that in that seven game series against the Cavs I would I would say the answer was inconclusive and that might be the answer to the other big question a question that I have seen fans ask that I just I don’t that that I’ve seen fans ask an answer definitively but I don’t think we’re quite ready to make a definitive answer on this but the 2025 season is going to be centered around this key question is fron Vagner the number two option on this team can he be the best the number two player next to Palo ban care and this isn’t meant to divide or anything like that you know we see everyone trying to do we saw we’ve seen everyone try and do this with Jason Tatum and Jaylen Brown which is a good analog for The Who The Magic are um and and you know they’ve had to answer all these questions and the Celtics have very clearly correctly stuck with them and said no these are our guys we’re going to figure out a way way to build with them and now look where they’re at so I don’t think the magic have to answer any of these questions definitively they got to pay up obviously pretty soon but I don’t think they have to answer any of these questions definitively but fron has to start answering this question more definitively too we want to see fron vager get over that 20 point per game Mark just so I can retire the 20 point per game stat with sha and Penny um magic have not had teammates average 20 points per game in the same season since sha and Penny in 1996 um we want to see fron get there and I think he can like I have no qualms about paying France voger this offseason 30 million 35 million Max it get it agreed to I don’t think he sign it this summer but get it agreed to it it it should the hope is at the end of the season We Come Away thinking fron is a Max guy but that’s going to be The Narrative of the season and unfortunately how you think about this question informs what the magic do this summer like if you don’t think fron Vagner is a number two guy if you do not think that he is that dude or is not ready to be that dude go sign Paul George like Paul George will be that dude we know he can be sure thing gives you 20 a night steps up for 30 every so often can you know France does that too but maybe Paul George is more reliable I don’t think that’s the case I don’t think that’s what the magic are thinking I think the magic are still they’re winning they want to win but they’re young enough that they want to give their young players the space to continue growing and developing they’re not going to get in the way of Pao and France and that’s why I don’t buy the Paul George R necessarily um I think it’s just professional do connecting fron vogner can be that guy and obviously the magic have to figure out and and and make decisions on that pretty soon um because they’re they’re gonna be limited in what they can do and again maybe fron Vagner is ultimately the guy they trade to get that guy if he’s if vogner’s not that guy but right now I think the magic should be fully invested in France I don’t have any reason to believe that this season was anything more than an anomaly from his shooting if fron vager did everything so well this year except for his three-point shooting I have no reason to believe that this is representative of fron Vagner as a three-point shooter I think fron will step up and get back to his career average get back to 35% maybe better and I think we’ll look at this season as the anomaly that it was and because I believe that in that I believe that you take that France is that guy and that you’re building a team around Pao and fron are two six foot1 Playmakers but the proof is going to be in the pudding the proof is g to be and how he steps up on the floor and obviously we’re going to get a good look at him a little bit with Germany in the Olympics for whatever that that is worth if fron struggles again from three in the Olympics I think we’ll be a little worried um he struggled from three in in the World Cup this this wasn’t something that came out of nowhere but to me when I look and think about fron Vagner season this year I see someone who had a really good year who had a career season but the most important thing that he did he unfortunately fell short and unfortunately in the biggest game of the season he fell short and this team is Young and this team is isn’t experienced and so the answer to all these questions the the real question we need to be asking about France Vagner is how are you gonna respond yeah he had a bad game you know we talked about d’angel Russell last week and how d’el Russell’s really struggle in the playoffs and it’s been a repeated thing okay France you had a bad playoffs you had a bad shooting season how are you going to respond because that response is going to tell you a whole lot more than any anything else that’s going to tell you whether fron is the player worth investing in and knowing fron and being around him and seeing how he operates I have no doubt that he’s going to respond and I have no doubt we will look back at at this past season and say this was the beginning of an awesome run from France vogner because he was awesome this year just had to make some shots I want to thank you all again for listening to today’s episode of locked on Match course find me on Twitter at Philip rrd subscribe to the podcast and apple podcast s you’re tuned in himo Google play Spotify Odyssey and all the F podcast to your podcast enabl listing device you can find us on YouTube as well at lockon Magic thanks to all of our YouTube subscribers we are now at 3,000 subscribers very very happy about that tell your friends to subscribe to YouTube if you’re Audio Only subscribe to YouTube even if you don’t actually follow it helps us out um so I appreciate all of you who follow all of you who listen all of you who watch appreciate it as well for the latest on the Orlando Magic be sure to check out orlandomagic daily.com you can find us there on Twitter omic daily and also be sure check out my patreon page I’m doing player evaluations on my patreon page including the one from France voger that one is actually free I published it last week so you just have to kind of scroll down the archives a little bit um you can check that out at patreon.com orlandomagic HUB again that’s patreon.com Orlando magichub and as always thank you for the support now that you’re done listening to us be sure check out the lockon sports day 247 streaming Channel on YouTube and now available on Amazon Fire TV in the free Fire TV channels app lockon Sports is here for you 247 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local Experts of lockon plus our national shows covering every leak find locked on sports today now available on the free Fire TV channels app before we sign off today I I want to remind everyone to just take a moment and uh spread some love around around the world around your world today um obviously June 12th uh the the day that this EP this this episode will publish the evening of June 11th but June 12th is obviously an important day here in Central Florida an important Memorial Day here in Central Florida um and so uh I want you to a remember the 49 that unfortunately lost their lives uh lives at the pulse Mass pulse shooting Massacre uh almost a decade ago now it’s unbelievable that it’s been almost a decade but uh take a moment to to to reflect to to reflect and and and do what they do what what they were doing inside that nightclub uh before that heinous act and that’s to spreading love and enjoying life um it it is a day to enjoy life um and and I hope that you are able to spread a little light and spread a little love to people in your world it can be big it can be small it doesn’t matter um but please spread a Little Love in Your Life on this on this day that that we take a moment to remember those who who lost their lives doing you doing that you know spreading love and so uh I appreciate everyone who listens to the show I appreciate all of you I love you all I’ll be at the US Brazil game if you see me come say hi I have I have walked on Magic stickers that that I’m happy to give out to people um but just spread a little love to the people in in your world today and that’s that’s all I would ask of you I would ask you that that and every day but especially on on this day on this puls remembered day June 12th 2024 but that’s going to do it for me today I want to thank you all again for listening to today’s episode of lock on Magic for Orlando Magic daily and lock on Magic this has been Phil Rosman right we’ll see you again next time for another episode of lockdown Magic

Franz Wagner had an incredible season. . . if you ignore his shooting and that Game 7 performance. How do we make sense of a season that was a career year by any measure but featured a major regression in his most important skill as a 3-point shooter and a frustrating showing in the biggest game of the season.

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