I've been a fan of Luka since he was coming out in the draft. After his second year I was convinced he was headed for a best player in the league for a decade trajectory and was going to be the clear heir to LeBron .

Put simply, Luka has undergone the type of changes in his shot distribution over the last two years that you would expect to see from a player in his 30s, not at ages 24-26. Now Luka is still an elite, elite player but his game is overly reliant on tough shot making as he does not get to the rim or go up against length at the rim with the same confidence or explosiveness anymore. Much like a late career player, he relies on hitting a lot of contested tough jumpers now. Last year this wasn't a problem as he hit 39% on damn near 11 threes a game, plus great numbers from mid-range.

I'll start with a very simple stat, number of dunks each year.

2018-2019: 25
2019-2020: 14
2020-2021: 12
2021-2022: 15
2022-2023: 12
2023-2024: 2
2024-2025: 1

Now dunks can sometimes be a choice but I have seen that he is simply much less confident going up against length at the rim. A really good example was in the Knick game (6:46 on this clip https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=H_I6vmRPUw0&t=406s ) when he stole the ball late in 4th and just didn't go up. This used to be a dunk or layup for Luka 99% of the time before last season. As an ex, here's a similar play from 2 years ago: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f8JhgKo0mic

This table from basketball reference is the percentage of his shots based on what distance they are from the rim. What you'll see is clear, a player that is taking less of shots at the rim than ever before and more reliant on making contested jumpers and shooting variance than ever before.

% of % of % of % of % of
Season Age Team G Dist. 0-3 3-10 10-16 16-3P 3P
2018-19 19 DAL 72 15.5 .209 .212 .103 .042 .433
2019-20 20 DAL 61 14.5 .260 .237 .058 .014 .431
2020-21 21 DAL 66 15.6 .180 .201 .153 .060 .406
2021-22 22 DAL 65 15.9 .128 .239 .165 .062 .406
2022-23 23 DAL 66 14.7 .176 .252 .145 .054 .373
2023-24 24 DAL 70 16.9 .123 .192 .152 .082 .450
2024-25 25 2TM 34 17.6 .109 .189 .175 .060 .468
2024-25 25 DAL 22 17.2 .099 .195 .185 .067 .455
2024-25 25 LAL 12 17.9 .129 .176 .155 .047 .494
7 Yr 7 Yr 7 Yr 434 16.0 .170 .219 .135 .054 .421

Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/11/2025.

Next looking at drives per game (from NBA.com), it's the same story.

2022-2023: 19.7 drives per game and shooting 62.7% on them
2023-2024: 17.8 drives per game and shooting 61.6% on them
2024-2025: 14.8 drives per game and shooting 55.3% on them.

Pure eye test, he looks slower than ever, and has all year. He is unable to shake defenders to create the same dangerous driving and finishing angles at the rim as before.

I don't say all this to say Luka is cooked. What I hope to convey is that *right now* he looks physically cooked and needs to put some serious work in to get his burst and bounce back. He does that, he can be the best player in the league.

Edit: adding in his playoff what percentage of shots are from within ten feet.

                                  0-3ft     3-10ft

19-20 playoffs 19.5% 28.9%

20-21 playoffs 13.8% 21.9%

21-22 playoffs 13.6% 29.5%

23-24 playoffs 8.7% 23.6%

34 comments

  1. Good post, it’s something definitely worth monitoring and discussing. He’s in his mid-20s now and with this recent injury-riddled year (last season + this one) I’ve had creeping concerns about his health and ability to get back to his old form as well. If these injuries are gonna affect him in perpetuity I hope he can find a way to stay on the same level impact-wise by changing his game up ala CP3. The first step to that is gonna be actually getting in shape instead of looking like he spent the last month having beer and McDonald’s for every meal.

    I think this season is gonna be a write-off, especially with LeBron likely not coming back at the level he was. We’ll have to wait and see if this is the new him or not. It’ll really be tragic if he never gets back to the guy we’ve seen in the playoffs before last season.

    TLDR: Get on the treadmill, tubby

  2. Two questions:

    1. How does this factor in roster construction/Does that play a role ?

    2. Does this data also cover layups ?

  3. Yeah it’s very well known among Mavs fans that Luka straight up didn’t look the same after his injury late last season. He pretty much stopped doing his post ups and started going way too hard on those step back 3’s.

  4. This is a fantastic post. The sub can be so defensive when it comes to Luka (or any laker for that matter) but this is just straight facts and data. At 26, Luka needs to get serious about reaching his potential because the numbers show a dangerous trend.

  5. I remember watching rookie highlights of Luka a while back and the thing that stood out was how much faster he looked back then vs how he does now. While Nico went way too far, I do think Luka would benefit from losing some weight to regain his speed. He could still retain his large frame to bully a ton of defenders but now his drives become far more lethal as layups/lob/pass to corner 3 are better.

  6. He definitely has a conditioning problem. And I do think that’s all it is because he’s young and doesn’t have big injury history. Anyway look at Jokics improvement after getting incredibly conditioned, I think Luka can def get even better than before.

  8. These are legitimate concerns that will definitely be something to monitor. Especially the part about his rim pressure going down. Nico getting back a poor return has overshadowed reasonable concerns about Luka’s long term viability.

  9. I’ve said it one and I’ll say it here again, even though I’ll get hate. The reason Nico was a fucking idiot is for wat he got back. He should’ve gotten one of the biggest hauls ever.

    But when it comes to the actual decision of trading him, go through the last couple of years, look at every single injury. I don’t think people realize how often he’s been hurt.

    Yes, he manages to play through it and still perform at a high level, but that was the management’s point, that as he got older, he wouldn’t be able to do it anymore, his knees are still bleeding, constantly playing through pain, always wincing and struggling to get up, it is an actual problem.

  10. It should really be his #1 priority to get back to his physique from the bubble. He was slim, fast and dominant.

  11. Idk from your data 2022 was actually the year he took the least amount of 2 pts? And last year he drives less because for once they had a lot of front court presence and not enough 3-pt threat and he happened to be able to shoot 38% on 10 attempts on 3s?

    Look this year is toast even before he got traded. The most logical explanation is playing thru injuries during playoffs last year made him difficult to recover from it. It’s not unheard of how making the finals previous year would lead to this player having a down year the next year.

    And people change how they plays all the time. Maybe Luka just prefers playing this way. He had quite a few ankle injuries in his early career, now it becomes knees/calfs.

    Bottom line is not everything is because of his “conditioning issue”. It sounds like such a character attack to me when there can be many other legit reasons.

  12. My biggest gripe is his shot selection and I feel like it’s getting worse and worse from last season. It’s super bad when he tries to foul bait like last game vs the Nets. And I’m hoping he will work on his floater and midrange game again in the offseason because I feel like he can’t even punish drop coverage sometimes, or just attack the rim more but he’s even more hesitant to finish around the rim. Idk what his PPP vs drop coverage but from my eye-test they don’t look as good.

  13. I thought the same thing watching the 73 point game last week. He looked really faster then.

  14. Not sure if 34 games this season is enough to warrant any long term concerns about drive per game trends. Especially when a large portion of those 34 games he was either coming back after injury, playing with injury, or acclimating to a new team. Worth monitoring though.

  15. I was watching Luka bubble highlights recently and the difference in how he moves is jarring. Completely different guy

  17. Nico is about to print out this post and send it to the Mavs season ticket holders

  18. I watched Luka religiously for 7 years and I can anecdotally say that his shot selection is a reflection of his physical condition. Even in the same game, as he gets tired, he’ll resort to more and more threes. If I remember correctly, last year there was a massive difference in his TS% between two halves of a game. First half numbers were like double the second half.

    Jokic was same before he sorted his physical conditioning out. Lakers literally beat the shit out of him in the bubble and he was wrecked at the end of the games. Today’s Jokic doesn’t tire out even though he does more in defensive end.

    Path is clear for Luka as well. I hope the shock of the trade will create enough motivation in him to level up his conditioning in the summer.

  19. I think one of the reasons is players have played against him for so long they kind of know his tendencies. Also they blitz him a lot off of pick and roll so he never can get downhill like he used to. He bleeding knees felt like they slowed him down more than his calf imo.

  22. Wow it’s almost like the Dallas Mavericks acquired a slashing player known for getting to the rim in 2023 offloading that responsibility from Luka.

    If only he had someone that can get to the rim like that on the Lakers too…

  23. This is interesting and I’ve noticed it too, watching him play especially recently. Just curious though, if you think the way they defend him evolving over the years (he’s considered to be a bigger offensive threat now than he was earlier in his career) contributed to this decrease? Cos that’s where I’ve always attributed it. And now that JJ is his coach, who encourages more outside shooting, I’m not as confident we’ll see much change in his shot distribution when he does get in better shape.

  24. Luka has been playing professional basketball for a decade already. It makes sense he has the wear and tear of a player entering their 30’s.

  25. I don’t know if it’s true or not but as a Lakers fan his shot selection has been awful. And yes, he’s been unable to get by defenders. He routinely gets the center switched onto him and he can’t get by him. Is it by choice or a physical limitation? I have no idea.

  28. Hasn’t he been playing pro since he was a pre teen? I would imagine he doesn’t want to wear down his knees more than he has to.

  29. Damn, me and my pops were just talking about this earlier. We’re like “what happened to all the drives and post ups?” Hopefully he gets back on track, I wanna see a 100% Luka in the playoffs.

  30. Hes at the same weight as he did last year when he dropped 34/10/9

    Its not his weight but his nagging injuries

  31. The generational hate campaigns Luka gets are something else dude… crazy

  33. I wonder how much more he’s getting doubled. Based on my eyes test I could be wrong but he’s getting double and treble teamed when he drives way more than before. Most teams adopted the idea off closing on Luka in the painted Area and are fine with his teammates being open from three.

  34. There is one major flaw in your statistic, you didnt include roster construction and open layups/lobs/dunks generated by Luka each season.

    In his early carreer Luka had to score himself when he drove to the rim and he dindt get blitzed as much, now that he has/had lob threats and he gets blitzed he doesnt have to score those anymore.

    Just the eye test of how often Luka lobbed to Dwight Powell in the bubble playoffs and how often he lobbed to Lively or Gafford last playoffs on those drives should tell you what you need to know.

    He gets absolutely hacked everytime he drives and doesnt get the whistle anymore, would YOU still drive as much if you risked injury everytime, when you have other options like Luka has with his stepback.

    Add to that that he has been dealing with that calf-injury since last seasons all-star break and didnt let it fully heal until now. And he now hast to play in a new system with new teammates, some of which cant even set a screen propperly (Jemison III) which also takes away from that. Dwight Powell isnt a good player by any means, but one the thing he was exelent at, was setting very good screens that Luka liked.

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