Atlanta Hawks 2025 Offseason Outlook
Hey everyone, thanks for tuning in again. A second one of the day. I’m Yosi Goslin, NBA salary cap analyst. You can find all my content on YouTube, Spotify, and uh Apple podcast. You can follow me on Twitter and Blue Sky. All that all under my name, Yosci Goslin. Uh, you can also subscribe to my newsletter, Third Apron on Substack and see all my salary cap information on capshets.com. And today I’m going to be discussing the Atlanta Hawks and their upcoming off season. And joining me today to discuss one of the best guys covering the Hawks, Brad Roland, host of Locked On Hawks. Brad, Brad, how are you doing today? I’m doing well. Appreciate you having me on, of course. So, yeah, you’ve had a lot of good stuff uh over the past week since the Hawks got eliminated as far as big uh like the developments in the front office, what might happen there, and also the uh just Trey Young’s future, like whether they want to extend him versus a trade. So, we’ll get into that. Let’s start with the front office situation first. um you know just kind of like a little bit what led up to it, what might be next, who might come in um what exactly the Hawks might be looking for. So uh whoever is listening, I suggest you all go back listen to some of his uh work on Lockdown Hawks this week. You can hear a lot of good context there. But uh just from like an outsider kind of seeing things over the past few years kind of want to here’s kind of like my view of kind of what’s happened since 2021 where they had that Eastern Conference Finals run which in hindsight maybe not exactly like a great progression for them kind of raised expectations pretty quickly maybe led to some of the decisions that ended up putting them into the their draft pick hole that they got in like particularly the Dejante trade uh trading to first unprotected in one swap. Uh and now like uh from a lot of the uh reporting that’s coming out uh seems like there were maybe a lot of voices in the room that may have led to that. So, uh, a lot of people like myself were a little surprised that the Hawks fired Landry Fields, especially considering I think they’ve done a really good job this year. Uh, especially considering where they were, uh, like at the end of the getting eliminated from the playoffs, uh, not having their picks and before the Deonte trade, I think they’ve recovered pretty nicely. Uh but ultimately it feels to me that the Hawks just, you know, they want to stabilize the front office a little bit, maybe bring in a guy that could avoid that kind of situation again and just kind of I guess consolidate the direction if that makes sense. So, but also they got to keep they got to stay competitive over these next two years because they still owe picks uh to the Spurs. So, I mean just like Bryley speaking, what would you make of that assessment? Yeah, I think it’s quite reasonable and you know, it’s it’s funny when you make a conference finals run as a as an organization that not really ever not never done that, but it’s not a the norm, right? Uh so it’s like it’s hard to say that it’s like was bad for the development curve, but because they’ve made it further than they’ve really ever made it as in since they got to Atlanta, they’ve never won more games in the conference finals than they did in 2021, which is kind of funny. But they did kind of speed up even before that. They, you know, not to go way down the rabbit hole, but they were in this rebuild. They were taking their time and they sped up even to get to that point. They went out and got Bdonovic and Danell Golinari and Clink Capella faster than people thought that they probably should for instance and they kind of did that again when they got there to your point like the first probably false step after that conference finals room was that they just kind of brought the band back together like they didn’t do anything to improve. They thought that they had arrived. I don’t know. I don’t know who they is this from organization ownership on down like they were like all right we’re here we did it and they all said I mean dating back to Travis Len who was the GM at the time and the owner they were all like we didn’t understand how much better we needed to be basically and they just kind of ran it back and that didn’t work obviously and that leads to desperation maybe is the right word I don’t know if that’s what you ever want to be but that’s kind of where they were I think when they went and traded for Jonte Murray and um that was pretty much failed immediately like it never worked and the theory of it kind of was mixed, but at least you understood kind of what they were trying to do, but they they kind of overpaid in the trade and then the partnership between Murray Young didn’t work at all. So, fast forward to all that, like I I was also a little bit surprised about Landry Fields being fired. Um, I think the league was surprised. I think people around the Hawks were surprised. Um, that was reported out there by me and other I think Mark Stein said the same thing. I went horse. Like there was some surprises within the team that they fired Landry when they kind of did that cuz you’re right like it’s been a mixed record for Landry Fields. Like there’s always there’s all this nuance as well about like what was Landry Fields and what wasn’t. Like there’s always the behind the scenes skull butt and I have said multiple times on my shows that Landry was the GM was the lead executive but the feeling has been the whole time that he wasn’t like the only voice like he was not the power level that some other GMs have for example a lot of voices in that organization some of that’s ownership a very active owner it’s been reported multiple times that the owner’s son who’s the alternate governor is involved in the conversations voices up and down the organizations So, um, it’s it’s a little bit odd the timing because they did, for me, it’s kind of funny. I said that all year long, if you kind of grade on an appropriate curve for what they were supposed to be this season, they didn’t have a bad year at all. They had a pretty encouraging season while going young and kind of taking their time and resetting a little bit. And to have your GM be fired two years after he was hired when the results weren’t disastrous is kind of not what you would usually see. But the messaging has been as kind of spin it forward that I think wrestler even in his announcement the owner basically was pointing to not saying that he wanted a big name but that’s the feeling that I’m getting that everyone’s kind of getting like he he’d like a bigname established executive that they haven’t had. Um whether that person exists or not is actually up for debate. I’m not sure that person is going to come to Atlanta. Um and maybe they end up end up with just giving the job to Auntie Salah who they already promoted to GM. But yeah, it’s been a mixed record and I think it’s it comes down if you want to go back to what you did what you said is perfectly accurate. Like they got a little bit over their skis, tried to make up for that by going against Jonte Murray to try to win now. And they did pivot very well. They pivoted very well. Dyson Daniels, that tray was great execution, but also they’re still in that like funny middle where if you don’t get too deep into the weeds, you would say, look, this is a team that just won 40 games and they’re kind of the playin poster child in some respects. And they have a young core that makes it a lot more optimistic than that makes it sound. But if you wanted to be cynical and just say, look, the Hawks are like a 4-1 team every year, that isn’t wrong. And I think they don’t want to be there. Obviously, I agree. But at the same time, I know a lot of people might not be able to see it right now, but just yeah, considering again where they were after getting eliminated last year versus now, it’s like a complete 180. I wrote extensively about the Dyson Daniels trade on Third Apron, like that trade really bought them some time as far as this draft picks holder in, but they also got exactly the player they were looking for uh in Dejonte Murray originally, an even better uh if anything uh much better fit. So, uh, yeah, they really turned things around. Uh, as far as like their path in 2020 when they did those moves, I wasn’t totally I didn’t really see how it would help that much more. It just cuz they’re mostly just adding depth pieces, but it worked. But also, when you take a step back now, we can see, you know, there was a lot of a lot of injuries uh on both sides of the conference that helped a lot of that kind of played into what a lot of the results were. Not so much for the Hawks. uh I guess mostly benefiting the Bucks. I think they play like a healthy Knicks and Sixers team. Okay. So, yeah, that wasn’t really the case with them, but still a weird year. Um and yeah, I just may Yeah, so maybe yeah, it kind of led to the decisions to like make another step after they got bounced out of the first round the year after. Uh but it seems like the yes as far as a surprise that I would say the front officing has improved uh since the Jante trade. But I kind of respect organizationally if they just by wanting to do this move anyways uh just to you know try to really like get rid of this like multiple voices syncing which seems to be in a lot of the reporting and just really try to stabilize things. though I um you know they’ll do the search. We’ll see what they who they end up bringing in. But I’m I’m pretty optimistic at this point. Like really one of the bigger turnarounds. A lot of teams have overleveraged their draft picks. Uh the Hawks did not too much in bystanders from what other teams have done, but they’ve already recovered pretty nicely from it. Um, yeah. The only the only fear there, not to cut you off, the only fear there is that when you’re doing the patient thing and you’re retooling and then you make an executive firing, it come it almost announces that you don’t want to be patient anymore. Uh, which is a little bit scary uh when you have an owner has a record of being a little bit impatient. So, uh, that’s the only fear I think. I I’m with you 100% like they’ve been on the track that you want to be on. It’s just whether they’ve might step out of that now and get more over uh over their skis again. But hopefully not if you’re a Hawks fan, right? So, uh, let’s get into the actual offseason then. And I think the place to start is Trey Young. Uh, very interesting situation for him. So, just looking at his contract situation. Um, I would say probably the the biggest priority for the Hawks to navigate. Uh, they also have the Dyson Daniels extension, which we’ll get into, but I I would say Trey Young is just like a little bit more paramount at the moment. So, he’s got one year on his deal before he’s got a player option and he could technically opt out, become a free agent. Uh, and there’s there is some uncertainty about what can happen next. Now, you’ve done a good job covering this, gathering intel reports about uh the situation. I remember right after the trade deadline, Chris Haynes posted about he was like on NBA TV saying, “Oh, Trey Young wants to win.” And it kind of sounded to me like maybe he’s implying he might ask for a trade or something like that. Uh but now there’s reports that an extension is very much possible. Uh and uh you’ve made the point that the that Trey is more valuable to the Hawks right now than as a trade chip. And I think I agree with that. Like I’d even say Trey is probably more valuable to the Hawks right now as a player than maybe any other team. Um the Hawks, they’ve been committed to working around his limitations and making everything work. And I just struggle to identify like you could pick some teams out there that make sense for him, but I struggle to identify teams that would give up like a hall that makes trading him right now worth it. And the Hawks cannot underell him. Like I would rather I think I’d rather write out the Trey era um under like under like a good contract than just get rid of him just because he’s got these limitations that are, you know, hard to work around. But um yeah, so I mean yeah, I just feel like the Hawks are just better off extending him at something pretty reasonable uh than than just even trying to find out what type of offers might be out there. Yeah, I mean you just laid it out like that’s my broad thought is that um he is a limited player in some respects. I I think the it’s almost gone too far the other direction on Trey Young where he’s now pretty clearly underrated to me. like there was a point in his career where that would have surprised me because he is, you know, a big big stats, small guard, like that kind of player is not usually like my cup of tea honestly. And I found those those guys to be overrated a lot of the time. And Trey Young, you could argue four years ago might have been overrated when he was getting in involved in top 10 player conversations and all those things. And I’m not sure he’s that, but he’s also better than people think he’s now. It seems like it seems like he’s like an afterthought and he’s, you know, I some of these player rankings where he’s in the 30s and 40s and I’m like that that seems a little bit odd to me. Um, for a guy in the middle of his prime, but you’re right. I mean, there’s this combination of the Hawks have kind of built around him, not entirely because of him, but they’ve insulated him pretty well with what they’ve done as a team building exercise with all these young wings, two-way players. That’s what you would want around Trey Young. And also all of their other core pieces, like right now anyway, maybe not in three years, but right now they all kind of need the number one guy to make it all work. Like they don’t really have another another number one offensive creator in the pipeline. I like Jaylen Johnson a lot. I like that’s Daniels a lot, Zachary. None of those guys are probably a number one option offensively like as a creator for other people in particular. Um, and Trey obviously does that. So there’s that side of it, the basketball side, and then there is the transactional side. where part of the reason I’m saying Trey Young is underrated is that there you’re you’re 100% right from what I’ve heard the there is no Godfather offer available for Trey Young. If they could get four first round picks like one of those like you know crazy full draft halls that we’ve seen traded in the last few years like you’d have to consider that but that that offer is not coming. That offer doesn’t exist for Trey Young. So, if your options are to try to build with this guy or to sell him for a pick or two and like suddenly be turning around and trying to get the same kind of player Trey Young already is, which is what they would do. Like, the Hawks are not going to suddenly pivot to a really hard rebuild if you trade Trey Young. And you need an an offensive initiator. So, you just be turning around and trying to replicate what Trey Young already is for you. So, that doesn’t mean you give him a blank check. You know, you can argue about whether he should get the max. Like, he probably shouldn’t get the full max in an extension this summer if you ask me. It’s a lot of money for him. I agree. 27 season. Yeah. So, let’s get into what that could look like. But, I agree with you that Trey Young has become underrated and I feel like as a cap guy, a lot of that type of discourse kind of stems on a player’s contract. I think the conversation on Trey Young would be a lot different if he wasn’t making a full max right now. Uh, so and and yeah, I don’t really envision a Max being out there. You look at some of the teams he’s been linked to in the past, like Lakers, Spurs, they’ve got their guards now. The Heat, I mean, they’re paying Tyler Hero half that amount. I think they’re comfortable with that. I’m not sure that’s out there. So, he might need to compromise a bit. And I do feel both sides really need each other right now. So, you mentioned the Jaylen Brunson situation, which is something I’ve thought about. uh his extension. He took a submax ex uh you know uh significantly below the max extension uh paying him in the mid30s and I don’t think that’s something that front offices are going to hold like other guards to that are like borderline all NBA players. Uh and in Trey’s case I don’t think it’s going to be like hey you got to you’re you’re not as good as Jaylen Brunson so you’re going to take we’re going to only offer you less than that. But I I think just if it does make some sort of impact, it’s that Trey probably for sure doesn’t get like a full max. Uh so if you So I’m looking at what that is, his full max, assuming he doesn’t get the super max. Uh it starts in the low 50 million range and then ends up averaging 60. So it ends up in like the high 60s. um what I I’ve kind of had in the back of my mind, maybe he signs an extension where he’s kind of making around the same he’s doing right now. Maybe tops out in the low to high 50s, maybe just like stays under 60. So you’re talking like instead of a 30% max, you know, something like 27 28, something like that, you’re, you know, you’re still above the 25%. And that would be, you know, even if that feels like a lot, that’s still a great percentage in a rising cap environment. So, I think that could be something where they kind of settle on just something slightly below the max and that would come a long way towards sustaining this group they have where they have uh Jaylen Johnson. They’ll be able to afford Tyson Daniels on his next deal. Uh they still have a couple years of research on his rookie deal. So yeah, this would help build like more sustainable a more sustainable window for like the next, you know, 3 four years at least. Yeah, I don’t think that, you know, I’ve used the Brunson example just because it’s a recent one, but it’s not the same situation as people probably know like Brunson wasn’t coming off the fullax the way that Trey Young is. Uh he was limited what he could sign at at that very moment. He could wait a year. There was this whole discussion about that whole thing with with Brunson where um but yeah I think you know Trey makes about 46 million next year um in his final guaranteed season if you can hang around that area. Yeah, something like you know 4180 or something like that as a as a full deal versus 4240 or whatever he’s actually uh able to sign 230 240. That would be a reasonable range. Or you can you could also go a little bit shorter if you wanted to. like if you can get him to take three years, that probably be better for a guy who’s going to be 31 by the end. If you do a four-year deal in a small garden, that could be a little bit tricky. But I think that um you never know till you get in the room. But I think there is probably a way to get the point across to Trey who just changed agents about a year ago as well. That’s a relevant data point in this. um that like, hey, we we’re going to pay you as much or more than anybody else is going to be able to pay you uh or probably going to pay you, but we don’t want to go to the point where we’re going to hurt our team building ability. And I think you can sell Trey Young on the fact that we want to be able to keep our the rest of our guys and Trey Young is bought into guys like Dyson Daniels and Reese Shay and Jaylen Johnson. There’s a little bit of a middle ground there, which is not usually the case. It’s it’s hard to negotiate with star players. Like usually there’s not really a negotiation. It’s like you get the most you can get or you don’t offer it. And Tre is in that middle where I just said he’s underrated, but he isn’t at the point where you have to give him the absolute most you can give him right now all the time. That’s how you end up with a bad contract at the end. Like even with even without even without a falloff, I don’t think you want to be paying Trey Young 70 million in his age 31 season. Uh yeah, maybe he’s maybe he’s worth that, but I kind of doubt that he is. So there is a middle ground there. And I think the Hawks um whoever this person is negotiating that contract has their char probably the number one charge going into the offseason is like can you get Trey Young to agree to a what you would call a reasonable extension even if it’s going to be a lot of money for him. Yeah. Um and yeah that’s just been the trend the past five six years since CO where the cap stalled so it made more sense for players to extend that. You were making as much as you would have gotten in free agency with a max deal. uh and teams have just been handing him out very little negotiation and I kind of feel like that that might be about to end. This is something that Brian Winhorse has he’s been pounding the drum on this that there’s probably going to be a lot more negotiation now as far as like handing as what you pay like you know a borderline all NBA guy or like a lower tier all-star guy. Um because yeah I mean I I I wrote about uh Darren Fox for example with the Spurs. it seems like they might just pay him the max, but when you look at historically uh players getting a second max, uh who’ve only had like one AllNBA, one all-star appearance, not a great history there. Trey Young’s a little more uh he’s he’s he’s a he’s done a lot more than that. He’s gotten like more, you know, accomplishments than that, but um yeah, still not like I wouldn’t say wouldn’t probably wouldn’t project to be such a high value. So, if you could just get something slightly below, I think everyone’s happy and you could continue this and then maybe down the line if things do change. Probably a little easier to trade him uh than he is now on a full max deal. So, yeah, I think yeah, we’re kind of in agreement that probably that’s probably where it ends up at the end. Uh but yeah, so then the other extension candidate, Dyson Daniels, uh finished he finished second in defensive player of the year, I think, and just won most improved player last year. And uh so yeah, I mean, I’ll just throw it out to you. Have you had any thoughts about what an extension for him could look like? Yes, I think it’s going to be again not to go back this one more time, but the uncertainty with the front office makes intel a little bit harder because you don’t know who’s making the decision on the Hawk side. Um, but you know, I’ve been looking at it for six months now probably about like what comparisons are and all that. Defense doesn’t always get you paid in the way offense does. Um, for better or worse, that’s the history of it. Not it’s not always the case, but um it could be a little bit harder to negotiate these deals where it’s not a max offer. He’s a defense first player, but he is a super young guy with a lot of pedigree. Like Des, I know he was a kind of toiling in New Orleans, but he was a mid lottery pick. Like he’s not coming out of nowhere. This is an established player. And I say that in part because I think the most recent comparison that I’ve been using is Jaylen Suggs. and Jones got five for 150 um a year ago in a lower cap environment. And I’m not saying Dyson needs to get more than that, but if you’re Dyson’s representatives, you you have to come to the table with that as a primary comparison. It’s the most similar one that I can find. They’re very similar players. Sugg’s a little bit more proven as a shooter, but they’re both defense first guys drafted in the lottery who had breakouts in their third seasons for their teams. Like, it’s a pretty logical comparison point. Um, yeah, and if you just do the the inflation for the cap, it’s even more than 30 million a year in this in this environment going in. Um, so I’d probably start there if I was Dyson’s team. I don’t know if the Hawks are going to go that high, but if the deal gets done, like I’ve been thinking it’s it’s going to be 25 million a year or more. I I don’t see how it couldn’t be. Um unless DA just really wants to sign an extension because look there is the security aspect this the real life dollars and occasionally people that do what we do like you get lost in like this is this is still real money and real security lifetime changing money. Um but even you go back two years ago I mean is he going to take less than someone like Jaden McDaniels or Deon Vasel got two years ago when he’s more proven than those guys were two years ago? like he just like you just said, he just won most approved player with number two defensive player of the year. Like those guys got 26 million a year in a lower cap environment. So something in the 2530 range would be my guess if it gets done. The Hawks love him, you know, for obvious reasons. So I think it will get done. I I just honestly I’m more curious than anything because the uncertainty with the Hawks side is so glaring that it’s hard to kind of lay out, but the comparison points are pretty like clearly in that 30-ish million range. Yeah, Jayen Suggs is I think the exact comp a lot of people are looking at. Uh so, and I’ve I’ve really dissected the situations where when Jaylen Suggs got his contract, he shot the hell out of the ball in his third season and he held it up this year even though he didn’t play too much. Uh I’m not sure if he held it up to like the exact rate he was doing, but I know he was still like playing really well offensively. The magic really fell off once he got injured. Dyson, he he became he like he he he got his shot a little more respectful respectable. He’s not going to be like a primary offensive guy, but like now he’s he’s got to be respected. Uh but I do think the offensive factor is going to be important uh for what his deal would be. So I would say like as a baseline, yeah, whatever like the same deal Jaylen Suggs got plus just a little more to adjust for the inflation of the cap going up 10%. That seems like a very logical uh end point for how this might go. A lot of, you know, a lot of listeners might think, hey, like he’s probably going to be he should probably be worth a lot more than that. Uh maybe like 35 plus. I could understand that. That would definitely need that would take like a strong belief within the Hawks organization that he’ll he is going to make like another significant offensive leap where he can maybe be like like a true secondary like offensive threat. Um, you know, thankfully the Hawks don’t need him to be that right now, but that would help a lot towards that. So, I would say, yeah, the floor is probably what Jaylen is getting. Maybe like Trey Murphy, who’s making a little less, like 28 a year. Uh, but just for like just kind of comparison sake, yeah, probably more so than the the Jaylen Suggs deal. And I do think it’s worth noting if there’s something the Hawks front office deserves a lot of credit for is negotiating with their players. I think they did got an excellent deal with Jaylen Johnson. I would say based on what he’s done this year, he’s probably worth more than that. 30 million year flat, that’s going to age really well. Getting Okongo on basically the mid-level exception. Uh, excellent deal. So yeah, I wouldn’t expect them to do anything, you know, to to like, you know, give them something exorbitant to Dyson Daniels. I would say, you know, they’ll probably obviously different slightly different front office now. We’ll see what happens, but I probably would expect they kind of continue to hold the same lines that they’ve been holding these past few years. Yeah, they’ve only given out one iffy extension in this entire era, and it was due to the Audrey Hunter one. Oh. Well, no, Collins. Collins was an extension. That that was a re that was a resign as a free agent. That was uh and they should have they should have squeezed him more than they did, which I said at the time. It was a weird negoti because they had all the leverage and they didn’t use it. It was odd. Um but the only year ahead extension that was a little bit shaky was the Hunter deal. And even then, they got out of it by the end. Uh a year a year before that, they couldn’t move that deal. It was seen as a negative. And then Hunter decided to have a good season so they got off it. But um yeah, Aong Woo, JL Johnson, uh pretty good data points and not paying Sadiq Bay, you know, they could have paid Sadi Bay and they didn’t. Um they they drew a line in the sand there and were smart to do so. So different people for sure, but um I think there is a line though for Dyson. As much as I like him, he’s a really good player. I I wouldn’t go to 40, you know what I mean? I wouldn’t be I wouldn’t be giving him the, you know, 24% of the cap or whatever it was going to be moving forward. So because of ultimately I how do I say this? I I think that there is not that much of a risk of Dyson blowing up more and getting the max in free agency a year from now. Like if he and if he and if he does that that is a good problem to have if you’re the Hawks. So you should at least negotiate fairly fairly firmly because I don’t really think Dyson’s the kind of player that’s gonna suddenly command the max. So there is a little bit of wiggle room there, but um being smart and kind of using your leverage to your advantage is probably smart there. Yeah, I’m with you there. I would guess most likely they come to an agreement. probably not g probably one of those that goes down to the eve of the start of the regular season because usually only the max deals get done early. Uh this one’s going to be a negotiation. There could be incentives. There could be a lot of bells and whistles into this one. Probably go up to the last minute. So, but I I would I would expect it gets done at the end. Um but yeah, so last thing just general roster stuff. So, I’m looking at their cap sheet. Whoever’s watching, you can watch uh view their cap sheets on capshets.com. So, for the first time in a couple years, the tax aren’t like right up against the tax or needing to do a John Collins type salary dump to get below it. They’re entering the offseason. They’re about I got them about 32 million below the tax. That’s assuming they also keep the Kings pick, which they probably will. Uh you know, very unlikely the Kings jump into the top four. That’s that would be unprecedented at 13. Um, and so they’ve got a lot of flexibility, but they already have most of the team pretty set. They’ve got their starters set. Um, they could use the full midle to fill out the bench, but you know, they already have most a lot of the bench already filled out. So, with that flexibility, if they want to, they could they could try to go after someone with the full mid-level. They got bird rights to several free agents like Capella, Levert, Larry Nance. Um, obviously what they do in the draft will could uh impact what they do to fill out the rest of the roster, but uh, yeah, they have some flexibility to just bring back their guys, run it back for the most part, and even do some sort of not like super imbalanced trade, but they can increase payroll in a trade if uh, you know, they’re able to bring in like a consolidate a little bit, bring in a more impactful guy. Uh, yeah, just Jenny, any general thoughts on how you could see their offseason playing out? I think they are going to be in an adding mode. Um, not to go back to it, but I think the decision by a wrestler to change the front office was a bit of a signal that they want to be aggressive to some degree to try to win more in the short term. That could be dangerous, but that that’s kind of the feeling I’m getting is that they want to win more. Um, and that means adding. Now, obviously, they have they have a team that is primed for some internal development. a lot of young players, they’re very young, but you still need to get better in some other spots. Um, you mentioned the full mid-level. They’ve had access to parts of it in recent past and haven’t used it at all. Basically, they’ve been sitting on their hands with that um that ability. They have that. They have um probably not going to use it, but they have this Dejonte Murray trade exception that’s 25ish million that they want to even get a little bit more creative. And part of the appeal of the DeAndre Hunter trade when they did it was to create flexibility for this summer to do some other stuff because they’re not up against the tax to your point. So I think a lot of it’s going to be running it back, but it will not surprise me if I’m kind of expecting them to add at least one real player. And when I say that, I mean like a mid-level exception or better kind of player to this team. Okay. A top seven guy under some because I think they want to win now. Okay. Okay. Cuz I was going to ask if you could clarify like if you that just meant adding to exactly what they’ve got or maybe upgrading uh like their top five guys, which yeah, they they do have the flexibility to do that. They’ve got some picks. Um earlier this morning, I had my Giannis stream about teams. We went through me and Sam Quinn went through every single team and we consider the Hawks like an actual dark horse if they really wanted to get into it like a Jen Johnson and pick space package. Probably probably got to include one other of the of like Dyson or Zachary Reese Shay to make it happen. But you know that’s as far as I’ll go. Uh just generally speaking if the Hawks wanted to do something that aggressive they might not have the best package but I could see them getting into the mix. Um, I mean, do you have any like pie in the sky possibilities you think are even reasonable or uh you think it’s not really going to happen? Giannis is one where you have to make the call, but I I’d be surprised if he wanted to go there and if they had the best package. They have a package that’s reasonable to your point, but uh that’s one that’s not likely. I think if they’re I’m not expecting this to happen to be very clear, but I think if you said, okay, who is the big splash that’s like the most reasonable for them to get? It’s probably someone like Zion just because the price isn’t going to be crazy crazy high. He’s got Southeast ties. Like I can see that. Like I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but he would pair well pair well with Trey Young. Like that kind of move I I would bet against it happening, but if you that’s the one big splash that I’ve got him quietly circling. They’re not close enough to me to get into KD war because like to trade for KD, you got to be like think you’re going to win the championship probably. he’s just at that point in his age curve where you don’t want to do that if you’re not ready to really win right then. Um, so yeah, that’s the one I think it’s probably more gonna be modest, but I know they have this starting five that’s locked in with five young guys, but there’s nothing to say that that they can’t add. I mean, I I’m one one of my big things is that people have to realize there are more than five players that matter in each team. Like you I know you know that, but it’s it’s a fan thing. They just want to list the starting five and it’s like, well, yeah, who’s the sixth guy? you know, uh there’s some wiggle room there, but yeah, my sneaky uh allstar level splash guy would be Zion, but even then, it doesn’t seem likely to me. Yeah, with that that I could see. I would imagine that just more so do you want to bring in Zion instead of having Jaylen Johnson? That would have to I I would imagine that’s kind of what it might come down to. Uh but I don’t ultimately I think they’ll just stick with Jaylen. Katie, I think they could do it. Like I think they have the stuff to do it, but like you said, like they could do it. They they definitely could do it. I just don’t know if I would recommend it. No, but I think Yeah, if you’re trading for a KD, I feel like it’s because you are like a KD away from winning a championship, which the Hawks aren’t there. So, I would I wouldn’t do that. So, I think ultimately, yeah, they’ll probably just continue. And I just just continue the course, which is fine. again like I keep bringing it back like just considering where they were last year have like they actually have something to build to now cuz last year you you had Jaylen Johnson mainly and we didn’t know what’s going to happen with Trey Young but now you’ve got Tyson Daniels and Reese Shay there like you really have like some real something to build on. So, I I would say that really eases the pressure from needing to do anything crazy and just continue to see these guys grow because I think this is like a very good core for the Hawks to be excited around and and to build on. Uh, as far as what they probably do, we’ll see about the mid level, I would guess, cuz their it seems like their biggest hole right now is back up big, which is not won’t be very hard. They’ll have their options. They can ex they don’t even have to wait till free agency. they could extend uh Capella or Nance right now. Um you know, maybe they bring back one of them or just bring back a different or bring in a different big man. Um I kind of I I kind of feel like they want to bring back Caris Levert. You know, you could tell me if you if you disagree. You could push back on any of this. I’m saying, but uh he played really well. They could really use another uh combo guard like him. But yeah, they could so like if they bring if they bring back like Levert in one big, they probably still have some room to use the mid level. Uh so yeah, they can have like a pretty pretty like deep roster like up through like their top 11 if they really wanted to do that. No, I think you’re right. They they’d like to bring back Levert. It’s just is there an offer out there for Levert that they don’t want to go to? Basically, that’s what it comes down to with Lever. I think both sides, from what I heard, would like to have a reunion, but if you’re Caris Levert and somebody offers you five extra million, you probably have to take it. It’s one of those things. Um, but yeah, I I think that’s a practical the most likely player that they would quote unquote bring in at a real salary is Carl, who they already who they already have. Um, he just happens to be a free agent. Now, as far as the backup big spot, that is the one spot in the rotation that’s like very empty right now. I think Capella is going to move on if I had to guess. Uh Nance could return, but Nance is um not quite like I I think they want a little bit more size. So if they want to bring back Nance for cheap, they love Larry Nance as a guy in the locker room, versatile piece, but like they’ll still want another big man, I think, if they did that as their primary. Um but like you said, it’s not too hard to find relatively cheap backup center play. They can do that. So yeah, I think they’ll be pinching pennies, you know, if there’s anything. Um sorry, pinching pennies. I think if there’s anything I’ve noticed or known for several time, they’re not going to pay the tax this year. I’d be surprised if they were to do that. Um, which means that becomes kind of a firm line and there is a lot of wiggle room under there, but they do care about that tax line. They haven’t paid the tax in almost 20 years. So, it’s they’re not going to do it and I think that that would make you somewhat limited even if you have you have they have more weapons if they wanted to use them. It’s just if that’s your dividing line, then you only have so much room. Right. Sorry. Right. Uh but no, I think yeah, they just I think just continue with building on what they’ve got. Uh they’ve just they have this flexibility for the first time and I would like they’re going to try to stay as good as possible. So I would think yeah, they’re going to just try to maximize their flexibility like up until the tax line. Last thing, do you have any MLE guys that you think that you would like to see them target? I would guess they probably want like a much better backup wing. Yeah, I mean it really depends on what they do with Levert. Like if they if they bring Levert back, it it’s lessens the need. If Levert doesn’t come back, that is a glaring need and they’re going to need another perimeter player of some kind. I mean, no one like for the full MLE that I’m like in love with. Um there are name like for if they wanted to go a little bit more of an investment at backup center, they go with like someone like Steven Adams. Like they could try to go throw the the mid level or something like that at Adams if he wants to come. I don’t know if he would. Um, I’m trying to look at my list right now. Like there’s been some Tai Jerome stuff if they want to go another guard. Um, but everybody wants Tai Jerome right now and Cleveland might just want to keep him. So that might not like I don’t know. There’s not anybody that I’m absolutely in love with as a full mid-level guy unless someone wants to take a discount or whatever. Um, they could really change it up especially if if Milwaukee goes in a different direction. Maybe you go Brook Lopez and that that gives you a different look at center. Ah could play with him a little bit etc. I don’t know. I don’t know what’s going to happen there, but there’s no one that’s screaming at me as far as mid-level is concerned. I do have a bunch of names, but a lot of those guys are either like a little bit better than the mid-level or they’re a little bit like where you don’t want to go that far, if that makes sense. I’m not I’m not sure what your board looks like, but a lot of guys either think, okay, they probably won’t come to Atlanta or they’re not worth the $14 million a year investment. Like, it’s just interesting middle ground right now. Yeah, I haven’t looked too much into it because I actually think there’s a pretty good possibility they don’t even use the mid-level. they reserved it and ended up using it as a trade exception uh to help generate an even bigger one or they I think they yeah they generated like a bigger Bogdan Bdonovich one which lasts longer. They never honestly they they they almost never use and that’s it frustrates me there have been times when they’ve been sitting you know 10 million under the tax line and it’s like they need another player and they didn’t use the mid-level and it’s like what are we doing here? But yeah, you’re right. I mean, especially if they especially if LVvert comes back, it will not surprise me at all if they don’t use it. If Lever leaves, they’re going to have to do something else with to find depth. My feeling is, yeah, there’s not a lot of really strong options worth throwing that out there for someone. Uh, but I’m also when you’re looking ahead, you know, you’re going to have extended Trey, you’ll have Johnson under contract, and then you got to give Dyson Daniels his extension. So, I’m kind of looking at their their cap sheet two years ahead. And when you have a mid-level on top of that, then you’re starting to get kind of dangerously close to exceeding the tax again. So, I think if I had to guess, I think they’ll, you know, they wouldn’t use the whole thing. Maybe they’ll use it on someone, but not necessarily to like maximize their spending, but like you said, if they lose Levert or someone like like like they lose him or they lose one of the big men and now you got to go after someone, okay, then you use it. I just wouldn’t expect them to like maximize their long-term payroll uh to help, you know, you got to prep for when Dyson Daniel’s next contract kicks in. That’s gonna, you know, that’s going to cost a lot of money eventually. So, I think ultimately they they’re not they’ll bring they’ll bring in some depth pieces. I would expect all those deals to be like on the shorter end of things. Like all these guys we just mentioned, you don’t really need to commit more than two years to really any of them. Uh so I think they’ll just try to keep it things on the shorter end and just keep their flexibility open so they’re in a good spot to retain everybody uh beyond the next two seasons. Yeah, they have a pathway to real depth if they retain their guys. Um but you know they could they we’ve been saying it for years and years. They they always need more offensive firepower on the perimeter. Um Levert helps with that, but if he’s not there they’re really going to need it. What is Kobe Buff game? There’s always like lower level questions that they’re going to have to answer. They’re draft picks. They have two first round picks. Rookies don’t really help you in their rookie season most of the time, which is always an underdised thing. But they’re going to have to add to well probably add, I should say, two more salary guys who are going to make a not a ton of money, but a little bit of money who they have to commit money to and resources to. And yeah, they’re in this limbo that they’ve always been in where if you’re if the thin red line of the taxes is your thin red line forever, then it it creates team building challenges when you start paying guys of any kind. Right. But look, let’s see. Maybe I don’t think they’ll ever not pay the tax. They just got to it’s the team’s really got to be at a high level where they’re like a homec court advantage team at the least. Uh and maybe that’s possible in the next three years or so. Uh but yeah, I think that’s just about that’s about everything I’ve got. Brad, thanks for being on. I really appreciate you doing this. And do you have anything coming up that we should uh be on the lookout for? No, thanks for having me. Uh nothing hu I mean it’s just uh it’s busy for the Hawks with this front office search on top of everything else. Uh Lot on Hawks podcast is the number one thing there. I have a Patreon as well. It’s patreon.com/bt rolland write with some Hawks writing and some extra audio stuff. I cover the league off and on. I just changed outlets because one of them went away and you know how it is. It’s it’s that time of uh it’s the industry that we’re in. But uh never stops and I’m at BT Roland on all social platforms as well if you want to follow hawks and non-hawk stuff. Well, there you go everyone. Yeah. So, you could, as Brad said, you could follow him on Twitter, Blue Skybt Roland. Listen to all his stuff almost like pretty daily, like almost daily on uh on Locked on Hawks. And you can follow me on Twitter and Blue Sky, Yos Goslin, as well on YouTube. All the podcast providers all have my name, Yos Goslin. Please subscribe to Third Apron. I’ve got more off like deeper offseason previews coming out. I’m going to release the Kings tomorrow. I did the Raptors yesterday and I’ll be back tomorrow to talk Miami Heat upcoming offseason. So, I will see you guys tomorrow.
Brad Rowland of Locked on Hawks joins me to discuss the Atlanta Hawks upcoming offseason. We’ll touch on their front office situation, Trae Young’s future, what a Dyson Daniels extension could look like, and other moves they could make.
You can follow Brad on:
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And see him talk daily about the Hawks on Locked On Hawks.
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1 comment
What’s up bro can you be a guest on my Miami Heat pod!