Fernando Tatís Jr. is back to dominating MLB | MLB Deep Dive

This is the Fernando Tatis Jr. we expected deepo and right out of here. This is the power. This is the speed. This is the defensive deafness that we figured would make Tatis a superior San Diego superstar. The timing is different. The position is different. And the road has been rockier than anyone thought it would be. But the five tool Tatis, the healthy MVP worthy Tatis has arrived in 2025 and it has been quite a sight to behold. If Fernando Tatis, you know, takes his walks and manages the strength zone like he’s doing now, it’s um you’re going to continue to see what you’re seeing now and that’s elite elite offensive capability. Tatis has powered the Padres’s in the young season. He entered the week as the National League wins above replacement leader. He was on pace for a 40 homer, 40 steel campaign while also at the top of his position in outs above average on a Padres’s team that had a quiet off season and whose roster looks quite a bit different than the one that reached the NLCS in 2022 or even the one that pushed the mighty Dodgers to the brink in the NLDS just last year. The total package provided by Tatis has been a blessing. What we’re seeing is not just a player fully realizing his elite potential, but doing so after shaking off the setbacks that came with unforeseen injuries and a self-inflicted wound to the reputation. Tatis’s promise was put on the professional brink. But now, in his age 26 season, the one we call El Nino or little boy, seems to have grown up right in front of our eyes. From the time he signed with the Chicago White Socks as an international free agent a decade ago, Tatis’s name has been known to many fans. After all, he is the son of Fernando Tatis, the former MLB infielder who, as a member of the Cardinals on April 23rd, 1999, became the first and still only player in history to hit two grand slams in a single inning. Swing and a long one. There it is, folks. Baseball history. In following in his father’s footsteps on the fields in the Dominican Republic, the younger Tatis earned a reputation among certain scouts for his makeup and maturity. He had a strong arm and fluid actions at shortstop, and he had a knack for barreling the ball. Still, teams didn’t fall over themselves to land Tatis. The White Socks landed him for less than a million dollars. A pittance when compared to the $3.9 million the Blue Jays paid in that same signing period to land a different player with big league pedigree in Vladimir Guerrero Jr. while in the Chicago system. Tatis’s profile grew literally. His height increased by about 2 in in less than a year. And as he played in the Arizona Fall League in 2015 and an extended spring training camp in 2016, scouts paid attention. Those scouts included reps from the San Diego Padres’s who were in the midst of a major transition. Prior to the 2015 season, the Padres’s coming off four straight losing seasons had traded for Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, and Will Meyers to create what looked like an all-star outfield. They landed one of the game’s greatest closers in Craig Kimbell, and they bestowed a franchise record free agent guarantee to starting pitcher James Shields. The result was one of the biggest busts in recent memory. The 2015 Padres’s actually won three fewer games than they had the previous year. And in 2016, the Friars funk had them 13 games under 500 and 12 and a half back in the NL West by the end of May. It was time for the Padres’s to punt. The White Socks, on the other hand, were in the hunt for the AL Central. And because they hadn’t reached October in 8 years, they sought to strengthen their rotation, honing in on the 34year-old Shields. With the Padres’s willing to kick in more than half of Shield’s remaining contract, a sum of around $30 million, the Socks were willing to deal a 26-year-old right-hander named Eric Johnson and a good piece from their prospect pool. On June 4th of that year, the Socks made what can only be described as a short-sighted move in forking over a 17-year-old Tatis. At the time of the trade, Tatis had yet to even make his professional debut in an actual regular season game in the minor leagues, but his Shields posted a 6.77 RA in 22 starts, and Chicago finished six games under 500. Tatis was just getting started. In three minor league seasons, he hit 280 with an 845 OPS, emerging as MLB Pipeline’s number two prospect overall. And on opening day 2019, El Nino was deemed ready to be rostered. At 20 years 85 days old, he went two for three in his debut, becoming the youngest player to record a multi-hit game in a season opener since a 19-year-old Robin Yant in 1975. Tatis was off and running. In that 2019 season, he launched 22 doubles and stole 16 bags in 84 games. He would have run away with the NL Rookie of the Year honor, but a hamstring issue in May and a back issue that prematurely ended his season in August left him in third place in the voting. The CO shortened 2020 campaign further limited Tatis’s ability to prove what he could do. But it didn’t stop him from posting a 937 OPS and finishing fourth in the NL MVP voting while earning his first silver slugger honor at shortstop. The Padres’s rewarded Tatis with a 14-year, $340 million contract extension, which at the time was the third highest deal in MLB history behind those signed by Mike Trout and Mookie Betts. And it was the richest ever signed by a player not yet eligible for salary arbitration. It seemed Tatis was on a perfect upward trajectory. Again, literally, during the 2021 season, he seemed to defy the laws of gravity with a so-called double jump catch to rob a hit. and caught by Fernando. Superhum Fernando Tatis Jr. up into the air. Tatis was an easy choice to become the first Padres’s player selected for the starting lineup in the All-Star game since Tony Gwyn in 1998. But while that 2021 season would see Tatis bang out an NL leading total of 42 home runs along with 25 steals to earn a third place finish in the MVP voting. It would also include more injury difficulty. Tatis dislocated his shoulder not once but twice. And while rehabbing the second injury, the Padres’s opted to have him start taking reps in right field to try to preserve his body. Tatis, though, would turn out to be his body’s own worst enemy. The following spring, the Padres’s announced that he would need surgery to repair a fractured left wrist. General manager AJ Prell alluded to an offseason motorcycle accident as the possible cause of the injury. And when reporters asked Tatis about the accident, he replied, “Which one?” Hinting that he had crashed his bike multiple times. Now Tatis’s maturity was being publicly called into question. And the story only got worse in August of that year when Tatis failed a drug test, leading to an 80game suspension by MLB. Just like that, one of the games brightest young stars was sullied. Tatis lost a major endorsement deal and gained the dreaded label of steroid chief. They basically handed the keys to the castle to him. This is a pattern of immaturity. Last year in a dugout at St. Louis with Manny going after Bobby Dickerson. At some point, you have to respect the game and respect your teammates. While Tatis was away, the Padres’s made his move to right field permanent, inking a blockbuster free agent contract with shortstop Xander Bogarts. And predictably, after Tatis served the remainder of his suspension at the start of the 2023 season and returned to the Padres’s, he was treated like a villain by opposing fans. Tatis’s fall from grace was as steep as can be for a young superstar. But a funny thing happened in that 2023 season. He emerged as the most gifted right fielder in the game, winning both a gold glove and platinum glove for his defensive efforts. In 2024, Katis again dealt with the frustration of injury, missing more than two months with leg issues. But in his last 70 regular season games, he slugged 520. Then he went 11 for 26 with seven extra base hits in the postseason, including two home runs in game two of the NLDS. We’re seeing a more selective Tatis who has cut his K rate by more than seven percentage points and increased his walk rate by more than four. We’re seeing a Tatis who punishes pitches in the heart of the zone with the highest run value against those pitches of any player in MLB. We’re seeing a Tatis with two healthy legs and he’s using them to steal bases at will with one of the highest sprint speeds in the sport. And we’re seeing him do all of this while again providing tremendous value in right field. Tatis is a player who earned a claim, threw it all away, and then came back hungrier. There are those who will never let him forget his transgressions, but he is proving that his natural talent and will to win can carry him back into the limelight. This is the fully realized Fernando Tatis Jr. Enjoy the show.

Through the first month of the 2025 season, Fernando Tatis Jr. looks like he is fully back to form, realizing the potential we saw from him early in his career.

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