Brodie’s Breakdown: How the NHL Draft Lottery Works

Brodie’s Breakdown: How the NHL Draft Lottery Works

Brody Brazil here to break down a very difficult topic. I’m going to try and explain everything you need to know about Monday’s 2025 NHL draft lottery. It is a complex process, but obviously very critical to a team like the Sharks, who once again have the best odds at landing first overall due to finishing 32nd in the regular season standings. So, let’s start here. All 16 teams that did not qualify for the playoffs are eligible for the draft lottery. But since no team can move up more than 10 total spots from where they actually finished in the standings, only the bottom 11 are eligible for that first overall pick this year. That’s the Sharks, Hawks, PRs, Flyers, Bruins, Kraken, Sabres, Ducks, Penguins, Islanders, and Rangers. Yes, in that order. The Rangers, by the way, have just a 3% chance of getting first overall. Now, if any team from 12 to 16 wins that first overall pick, they don’t actually get the first overall pick and instead it goes straight to the Sharks. So, knowing that it’s those 11 previously mentioned teams and five others can’t get the first overall pick, the Sharks odds to pick first overall once again in 2025 are precisely 25.5%. Their odds to get the second pick are 18.8% and their odds to get the third pick are 55.7%. And due to simple logistics, the Sharks cannot get a lower pick than third overall. That’s because the first two picks in the draft are determined at random by pingpong balls. Everything else after that is decided by the inverse of the regular season standings. Are you hanging with me still? So, let’s really get in the weeds now. There are 14 sequentially numbered ping-pong balls to generate a possible 1,000 different codes that are proportionately distributed to the teams. For example, the Sharks will be assigned 185 of those unique codes, which each could be a match. These pingpong balls will pop out of a machine before the announcement on Monday afternoon. And the NHL does allow each team one representative to act as a witness to the entire process. They’re all sworn to secrecy, having their phones held by security and being sequestered in that very same room until the draft positions have been made public on the television broadcast. There is one more thing. Should the Sharks win the lottery for a second straight year, it would rule them ineligible to win again until 2029. That’s because a new rule starting with the 2022 lottery says you can’t win it more than twice in any 5-year span. And of course, they did win it last year. Two years ago, Connor Baddard was chosen first overall by Chicago. Last summer, obviously, the Sharks snagged Mlin Celibbrini. And this year, NHL Central scouting has 17-year-old OHL defenseman Matthew Schaefer as the number one North American skater and likely the first overall pick. There’s also forward Victor Ecklund. Yeah. Williams brother, who is ranked as the number two overall European skater by Central Scouting. So, now that your brain is likely numbed by the combination of complication and anticipation, let’s remind you of the bigger and maybe best part of all this. The Sharks have two first round picks and two second round picks in each of the next two entry drafts. this year. That adds up to four of the first 53 total picks. The other firstrounder coming of course from Dallas in exchange for Granland and CC. And the other second rounder is Ottawa’s in exchange for Fabian Zetterland. So yeah, at the very worst, it’s still a really good situation for the Sharks to be in. Think of the wealth of talent they’re likely about to acquire come late June in the draft. And at the very best, it could turn out to be something special. and great. Before last summer, the Sharks never had a first overall selection in franchise history. And the big question now, will they be lucky enough to make the first choice two straight summers in a row? I can’t wait to see you

Brodie Brazil breaks down everything you need to know about the NHL Draft Lottery and how the Sharks stack up.