I made a post about this a few weeks ago, and it was mostly downvoted and ignored because of how long it was. Here’s the post once again, this time shortened into bullet points.
The original post is here: https://www.reddit.com/r/nhl/s/VzCR1riKCn
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Point #1: American teams greatly outnumber Canadian teams.
This one is basically self explanatory. The more American teams there are increases the chance they will win. -
Point #2: The American dollar versus the Canadian dollar.
American teams are able to afford better players due to the high value of the American currency. -
Point #3: The ‘sunbelt’ advantage
Despite most of the best players being Canadian, a great many of them would prefer to play in cities with warmer climates instead of cold Canadian cities. -
Point #4: Affordance and salary cap.
In the early 1990s when Canada’s Cup drought began, Canadian teams were in bad shape and could not afford good players, and there was no salary cap. This meant most good players went to American teams.
In the early 2000s, a salary cap was implemented, and right around this time Canadian teams were able to afford better players again. Yet the salary cap naturally promotes more parity in the league, and makes it very difficult to create a stacked team with mostly all good players. -
Point #5: Home-Ice advantage.
Home Ice advantage is extremely important in the Stanley cup final – around 70% of the teams with home ice advantage in the finals end up winning the cup. Now, Canadian teams have iced some rather bad teams in the last 30+ years due to the above reasons. This has led to Canadian teams playing mostly on the road when they do make the finals. In fact, out of the last 31 seasons, Canadian teams got into the finals only 7 times, losing all 7 series’ – only ONE of these teams had home ice advantage in the finals, and they lost mostly because of their goalie choking.
I do think in general there may be some reffing biases against Canadian teams, but I cannot say for certain. The biggest factors for why Canadian teams don’t win are the ones I mentioned. Those are quite a few. Canadian teams clearly have the odds stacked against them.
31 comments
#6 Gary Bettman – He dosent want canadian teams to win the cup.
It’s the Curse of McSorley’s Stick.
The Canadiens training staff snuck into the Kings locker room early on in the series. They knew that McSorley’s stick had an illegal curve and sat on that knowledge until it was useful. When they were down by 1 late in the 3rd in game 2, they called for the challenge, tied up the series (instead of going down 2-0), and winning the Cup.
As a result, the hockey gods cursed all Canadian teams and won’t let them win another Cup. Edmonton will get to game 7 of the finals this year and lose in triple overtime.
I’ll offer a point #3B if you’ll indulge me. A survey of player agents found that most players don’t want to play in Canada because of the insanity of the fans and the media circus. Sure, the prairies have some desolate winters and not much to do when you’re a rich guy in town, but being publicly ripped apart every day by the media and the fans when you lose a hockey game likely sways their willingness to setup shop here.
The second point doesn’t apply, every player is paid in the same currency. Point four there is more to this then teams in Canada going through a tough stretch. Each team was going through it’s own struggles and ownership problems which caused a lot of their problems.
I put a curse on Canada in 1995. I don’t remember why but I’m pretty petty so it probably didn’t take much.
Canadians win cups more than anyone else each year, the cup comes to Canada with winning player visits more than anyone else 😆
Florida panthers and other American fans chanting USA at nhl hockey games is cringe worthy
The American dollar one doesn’t belong imho. A lot of the Canadian teams are cap teams anyways. It matters for the health of the business, but not for spending on players.
If anything it might help attract players. They get to earn USD but their expenses are in CAD. People go on and on about the tax advantages of some American markets but never talk about the ~30% bump NHLers get from the exchange rate in Canada.
Because tampa was 20mill over the cap
Montreal Canadiens: Already reached the limit.
Toronto Maple Leafs: There are currently more than eight teams in the league.
Vancouver Canucks: Curse of 1970; Buffalo can’t win either.
Edmonton Oilers: Used up several generations’ worth of talent in the eighties, but they’ve become competitive once again.
Ottawa Senators: Gave themselves banners for Stanley Cups that they never won, so they’ve pretty much asked to be forever winless.
Winnipeg Jets: Possibly the least appealing city in the whole league for a player.
I think it’s really just a combination of point 1 and the frequency of repeat winners. In the 31 cups since Canada won, only 16 teams have won. The 31 teams that lost in the final are Philly, San Jose, and Nashville and 5 Canadian teams (all except Toronto and Winnipeg) [edit, outside of the 16 that won]. So 24 teams have made the cup final in those 31 years, and 5 are Canadian. Thats 21%, only 1% less than the 22% of the league’s teams that are Canadian. [Edit 2, it’s actually 25 and 20%, doesn’t change the end conclusion much. Toronto, Winnipeg/Atlanta, Utah/Arizona, Columbus, Seattle, Minnesota, and the Islanders have not made the cup final in that time frame]
On top of that, even with the road point, statistically you would expect 2 of 7 canadian teams to win the cup on the road with a 30% chance to do so (not even accounting for 2011).
So Canadian teams make the cup final at exactly the rate you would expect statistically, but underperform in winning, likely partially due to the relatively small sample size of only being in 7 finals, combined with being the underdog in most of those finals.
I think none of these are factors honestly.
I think it’s that most Canadian teams are poorly run as a hockey team, but as a hockey business they work wonders
Aka, they maximize profits because it’s a guarantee they get support. Just capitalize on that.
Teams like the Florida panthers have to win and do well to sell tickets and jerseys.
Not one mention of the real reason: Canada’s significantly higher taxes for high earners.
Old boys club. Same problem hockey canada has
It makes sense. If you grow up in Canada (as most players do) you recognize the winters are cold and grey and you want a change. Florida and Carolina and other places offer an alternative that is nice.
I’ll offer a point that has no scientific study behind it! What if, say you play for Florida or Tampa or Vegas – you live in a warm climate all season long, and get tons of vitamin D. Therefore, you are healthier and more energetic. This could help with overall performance, rather than having to deal with cold brutal winters with little sunlight.
Point 6: they’re very poorly managed and led by FOs with dinosaur mentality
For me, the big reason is pressure from fans and media.
“, Canadian teams got into the finals only 7 times, losing all 7 series’ – only ONE of these teams had home ice advantage in the finals, and they lost mostly because of their goalie choking.”
Also a combination of Boston getting away with assault for the entire playoffs (see: Tampa Bay) and Tim Thomas going Super Saiyan.
>only ONE of these teams had home ice advantage in the finals, and they lost mostly because of their goalie choking.
Why is this the narrative? The canucks scored 8 goals in a seven game series. 2 of their wins were 1-0 shutouts.
Is it really all on the goalie when your team cant score?
There’s just more American teams and tons of internal pressure from fans and media on the Canadian teams that get far.
You missed the tax difference too. Playing in a place like Florida or Vegas has no state income tax compared to Canada has high income tax is far more lucrative even if the salary is the same. So they are at a disadvantage in recruiting
You missed the tax difference too. Playing in a place like Florida or Vegas has no state income tax compared to Canada has high income tax is far more lucrative even if the salary is the same. So they are at a disadvantage in recruiting
You missed tax issues too. USA tax rates are lower than Canada’s for the rich. Some states have no state income tax too
I just hope McDavid doesn’t pull a Gretzky and heads down south
It is no coincidence that the three decade long cup drought for Canada precisely aligns with Gary Bettman’s tenure as league commissioner. It is also no coincidence that Bettman’s squad of zebras suddenly start making highly controversial and questionable untimely calls on non-calls as soon as the post-season begins. Canadian teams must beat their opponents plus the zebras. Despite this huge mountain to climb, 2025 is Canada’s year. The cup is at long last returning home where it belongs. 🇨🇦
It’s because most of the good Canadian players get scooped up by American teams.
Canada vs USA in the NHL is a ridiculous argument, almost every year the cup is won by teams made up of mostly Canadians. It’s the NHL, not the worlds!
Ppl also tend to overlook the fact that 6/7 canadien teams are clustered in only two divisions. So they have to knock each other out on route to the conference finals. Only one canadien team can ever make the eastern conference finals. In the west, it’s 1 of 3 in the pacific plus Winnipeg. So it’s not just the overall probabilities but the available pathways.
I think the fact that there are only 7 Candian teams versus 25 US teams probably has the most to do with it
Bunch of taxes, crazy media, crazy fans and shit winters or no/low taxes and sunshine. Seems like a no brainer.
Another year, another post about the drought.
While I appreciate all the stats and deep dives, yall just want it to be something nefarious or intentional.
You can’t just say that since Canada has 7 teams, it is a statistical anomoly that one of them hasn’t won a cup. That only would track if each year it is just a randomly “selected” team.
It’s a team with skill, depth, goaltending, and, let’s face it, luck.
During the drought, only 3 Canadian teams won the presidents trophy for the best team in the league. (Not an indicator of post-season success by any means). But a sense of a team that is good enough to win, but often doesn’t, so we now have a President’s Trophy “curse”.
It’s just our brains trying to make sense of the randomness that is hockey (and the world if we are being honest).
Canadian teams have been close several times during the drought, while also sometimes being in contention for the draft lottery.
So go ahead and have your fun and claim your conspiracies, but at the end of the day, if Vancouver beats Boston in 2010 or Edmonton last year, we would all have to find a new reason to feel our teams are being cheated.
2 words…weather, taxes.