Conference Final Preview – Oilers vs Stars

Conference Final Preview – Oilers vs Stars

Welcome back. All right, uh time to preview the Western Conference final. For the second year in a row, it is Dallas, it is Edmonton. So, rather than doing this where I talk about regular season games, talking about past series between these teams from before last year, I figured let’s just look at what happened last year. Uh Dallas did have home ice advantage, but they lost in six against the Evans Oilers. This year, they have home ice advantage again. So, they’re going to have to try to avoid a repeat of last season is what’s got to be done here if you’re Dallas. I’m wearing Dallas because I’m a Dallas fan. But that being said, I think the Oilers have a good chance here. Uh, but Dallas has already taken out Colorado. They’ve taken out Winnipeg. Is Edmonton going to be next? We shall see. Now, looking at last year’s series, the leading scoreer for Dallas in that six game set. One goal, six assists, seven points for Jamie Ben. The captain was their leading scorer. Uh Johnston had three goals and two assists in that series. Sean had two goals and three assists in that series. Robertson three goals and an assist. Roe Hint was kept off the board mostly two assists in the four games he played. Matt Duchain was completely kept off the board, zero points in six games. Jakeer was 2 and4 with a 901 safe percentage. Edmonton does pretty well against that keeps up. And Dallas, infamously or famously, no power play goals in that series. None. uh by the end of that series, what Edmonton’s penalty kill streak was up to 26 in a row. Uh now, Dallas won games two and three in that series and then they managed four goals in the the three games that followed. So once Skinner got his game going, there wasn’t much Dallas was able to do against him. Now looking at the Edmonton side of things, McDavid in those six games had three goals, seven assists, 10 points to lead the Oilers in scoring. Uh Bard a goal and six assists. He’s having another strong playoff this year. Uh Heyman, three goals and two assists. Dry Cidle and New Jen Hopkins both had two goals and two assists in the series. Uh Perry just one assist in the three games he played. And Skinner 4-2 with a 922 safe percentage. So it’s weird how you go from Halabuck to Skinner and you would think that the picture would be a rosy one for Dallas, but not really. Skinner played pretty well against them last year. Uh Edmonton managed four power play goals in that series. Uh they won game six by a score of two to one. And the most frustrating I’ve ever been watching hockey was that one. Uh Skinner saves 33 out of 34. Uh there were 10 shots by Edmonton in that game and two of them went in the net. It was the most frustrated I’ve ever been watching a hockey game. So we’ll see if it happens again. It could. It absolutely could. History does have a way of repeating itself in the National Hockey League. But uh hoping that in the event that Dallas does lose, it won’t be. They outshot the opposition 34 to 10 and lost the game. Uh but yeah, there you are. So looking at the leading scorers on the Dallas side for this year’s playoffs, Rantin’s leading the way. And that’s the big difference between this year’s Dallas Stars and last year’s and should make a difference on the power play as well. Nine goals, 10 assists, 19 points in 13 games for Rantinon. He has factored into most of the goals scored by Dallas in these playoffs. Rope hints 13 games, five goals, five assists, 10 points. Wyatt Johnston, four goals, four assists for eight points in 13 games. Granland, four goals and three assists for seven points. Steel has a goal and five assists in these playoffs. Sean has two goals and three assists. And Duchain five helpers. Matt Duchain not hitting the net very well uh so far in the 2025 playoffs. Thomas Harley on the blue line’s been fantastic for Dallas. Four goals, seven assists for 11 points in 13 games. CC and Labouchkin, both of them with three assists in the 13 games played. Jakeer 8 and5 record, 919 save percentage. I thought he was better against Winnipeg than he was against Colorado. We’ll see if he continues to ramp things up against Edmonton, a team that did pretty well against him last year. And to Smith in the appearance he’s made in these playoffs, a 929 safe percentage. No record for him. On the Edmonson side, of course, McDavid’s the leading scorer. Three goals, 14 assists, 17 points in 11 games. And I still see people complaining he doesn’t shoot enough. He has 17 points in 11 games. It’s fine. uh dry cidle, five goals, 11 assists, 16 points in the 11 games played so far by Edmonton. And it’s worthy of note if it matters that Edmonton’s played two less games than Dallas. Dallas might be a little more beat up than Edmonton. Uh Nan Hopkins, three goals, six assists, nine points in 11 games for him so far this playoffs. Heyman, three goals, five assists. Cory Perry’s had himself a playoffs, hasn’t he? Five goals, two assists for seven points. Uh Evander Kane’s played 10 games, four goals, three assists for him in those 10 games. And Connor Brown also four goals, three assists. That over 11 games. Connor Brown’s been fantastic. Uh Bousard, four goals, eight assists, 12 points in 11 games. Bousard’s been excellent. Darnell Nurse second in scoring amongst the defenseman. Two goals, two assists, four points in 11 games there. Uh it is interesting looking at the goalending statistics for the Oilers because they don’t look great, right? You have Skinners two and three with an 84 safe percentage. And as I’ve mentioned in video recently, I’ll mention it again here. Skinner can look absolutely awful. He can also look fantastic. And the times he looks fantastic doesn’t necessarily write off the times he looks awful. Just like the times he looks awful doesn’t write off the times he looks fantastic. But he needs to have more fantastic than awful in this series for them to beat Dallas. Uh Pickard 6 and0 with an 888 safe percentage. We know he will not be healthy enough to back up uh over the first couple of games. When he’s healthy, it’s going to depend on how Skinner played those first two games as to whether or not Pickard gets the net back. Uh my guess is probably not. My guess is that Skinner should play well. Like he has good numbers against Dallas. I don’t see any reason why that wouldn’t continue in these playoffs. When we get into the team stats, it’s it’s very interesting for me. So goal scoring favors Edmonton. This this series has to be lowscoring for Dallas to have that chance. Even though last year they lose a 2 to1 deciding game in game six, but 3.91 goals scored per game by the Oilers. 2.62 goals scored per game by Dallas. In fact, Dallas has been outscored. Uh for all of the talk I’ve heard about how Colorado were frauds and then Winnipeg were frauds, they’ve been outscored in these playoffs. They’ve allowed 2.92 goals against per game. Uh whereas the goals against per game for the Oilers, 3.09. So, uh, for Dallas, they’re going to want to keep this very low scoring, low opportunity even. I’d go that far. If this game gets brought down into the muck and we have like 15 shots each, that may be a more favorable game for Dallas. If it opens up, that should favor the Oilers. The power plays, uh, Dallas is a little bit ahead of Edmonton, 30.8% on the power play versus 25% for Edmonton. It really does come down to Rantin. If Edmonton’s able to neutralize Rantin, I think Dallas can be beat. Remember, Hella Buck did have two shutouts in the last series. So, Dallas can be shut down in the Colorado series at certain points, too. Colorado was able to shut down their offense and Edmonton has shown during these playoffs. Yeah, at times their defense can be perfectly fine even though their goals against per game is a little bit high, but some some ugly games have kind of skewed those numbers, including the penalty kill. Uh 86.1% on the penalty kill for Dallas, which is fantastic. Edmonton 66.7%, but they they kind of got destroyed by the Kings in the first round. So, I’m not surprised those numbers are still awful. They did get past Vegas in five games. They look great in that series. I I don’t think the penalty kills necessarily a big deal unless Dallas gets a lot of power plays, which once you get to the conference final, that’s usually not the case. Uh hits per 60 minutes favors the Oilers. And as I said, it’s possible Dallas is probably nursing some injuries here. And for all of the discussion about, oh, that hit looks like they’re designed, they’re trying to hurt those guys. Of course, they are. Uh, that’s that’s sort of the point of playoff hockey. You’re trying to wear the other team down. And if you injure another player, you’re not happy to see them injured, but you’re not apologizing for hurting the player if it’s a hit along the boards. As long as it’s clean, right? I’m just saying. And and clean hits can still hurt somebody the same as a dirty hit. So, 35.61 61 hits per 60 minutes by Edmonton. 30.27 hits per 60 minutes by Dallas. Uh Dallas is not an overly physical team. Uh on the blocks per 60 minutes, Edmonton’s favored there as well, though not by as much. 17.2 blocks for every 60 minutes played in these playoffs, whereas Dallas 16.62. Now, if these teams have a lead, they’re pretty good at holding it. Both of them 3-0 if they lead after the first. If they lead after the second, Edmonton still 3-0. Dallas 3 and 1. Now, if they’re trailing after two periods of play, a little different. Dallas is 1 and three. Uh, and then for Edmonton, three-2 if they’re leading a or if they’re trailing after two periods. So, you’ve got to watch Edmonton in the third period. And the goals per period really tell you this story. So, in the first period, both of these teams have been outscored. So, I’ll be interested to see how they’re both trailing after the first. Uh, 9 to6 has been the score against Dallas in first periods. 12 to 10 the scoring against uh the Oilers in this first period and they trail in second periods too. This is odd. I don’t know that I’ve seen this before. Not in a conference final. Uh Dallas has been outscored in the second period 16-13. Edmonson’s been outscored 13 to11. But in the third period, well, Dallas is still outscored 13-2. However, uh Edmonton outscores the opposition 19 to9. So for Dallas that third period they’re going to have to be really really careful because Edmonton once they get their confidence in third periods they’re pretty darn good in the overtime both teams are perfect 3 and 0 in overtimes in these playoffs. It is a big part of the reason that Dallas is here. That means that three of the rate victories have come via overtime and so they’ll be looking to uh extend that in this series. Whereas Edmonton they want to stay perfect in the overtime as well. I think this series could go the full seven, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes six. And I honestly will not be surprised either way by who wins. I will be rooting for Dallas in this series. Obviously, as a Stars fan, but Edmonton’s had a great story, too. And if they go back to the final, it might be kind of fun to see the Edmonton Oilers win a Stanley Cup. Might be kind of fun. So, either way, uh, this series should be a lot of fun. And it’s really going to come down to who dictates the play. If Dallas can keep this game really low scoring chances and just make sure that Edmonton’s blanketed every time they have the puck, they have an excellent chance. In the event that Edmonton can dictate the the speed of this game and and use their their forwards and their scoring from guys like McDavid and Dry Cidle, uh Dallas is going to have more of a struggle. And in that I I know Auter is going to be seen as better than Skinner, but last year when they played against each other, that wasn’t how it turned out. So, I’m not making any bets on any of that cuz I don’t bet. It’s generally not the case. But, thank you guys so much for watching. Let me know your thoughts. Who do you think wins this series? Don’t forget to hit like and subscribe in the event you may not have done so already. Thank you guys so much for all your support. I will talk to you again soon.

This is the second straight season that these two meet in the Conference Final.

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