A new target ENTERS the chat | How the Magic play free agency

A new target ENTERS the chat | How the Magic play free agency

[Music] A new offseason target has entered the chat. How the Orlando Magic have another path to add players and the risks that come with it. Today on Locked on Magic, you are Locked On Magic, your daily Orlando Magic podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. And you are indeed locked on Magic. Today is June 2nd, 2025. My name is Philip Rosnike. I am the senior writer over at Orlando Magicaily.com. credentialed member of the Orlando Magic Media since 2011 or thereabouts somewhere in that that vicinity. Time is a flat circle. On today’s episode of Locked On Magic, a new target has emerged in the rumor mill gristle. How the Orlando Magic have another path to add players, but one that comes with tremendous risk. We’ll talk about that coming up here in just a moment. But first, we want to thank you again for making Lockdown Magic part of your day every day. No matter when you listen to us, whether it’s first thing in the morning, whether it’s right when we upload, we truly appreciate you making Lockdown Magic part of your day every day. We truly appreciate you making Lockdown Magic your first listen of the day. We truly appreciate everyone who listens to us every day. We just passed 4,000 subscribers on YouTube. The goal is to get to 5,000 before the start of the season. That would be awesome. Got a lot going on this month. We’ll be doing draft preview. We’ll be doing offseason preview uh as we get to the end of June and the NBA draft. Just three weeks to go. Three weeks from Thursday, I think, is the NBA draft. A lot to get to. Thank you for making Locked On Magic your part of your day every day. Locked on Podcast Network. It’s your team every day. Today’s episode of Locked On Magic is brought to you by Monarch Money. Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code locked on NBA at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. It has been widely assumed that the path for the Orlando Magic to improve this off season has been trades. Jeff Welman mentioned it very specifically at exit interview saying, you know, kind of in the phase of swapping contracts. It’s it it has been it is a a period now where it feels like it’s time to upgrade parts of the roster. Obviously, always time to upgrade parts of the roster, but with where the Magic are at financially, the first apron concerns, the luxury tax concerns, how suddenly expensive this Magic roster is, and knowing that it will get more expensive with Paulo Bane Carroll’s extension kicking in in two years, the Magic or next season, um, not 2026, 2027. It’s been widely assumed that the Magic are not going to spend in free agency. You know, I I put together a list of minimum free agents already. We’ll go over some of that list and maybe a little bit later in the month. Uh that might be a this week thing. That might be a wait until July thing. The Magic are going to have to really scrap to put together their roster. Even like what I did in the lockdown mockdraft still requires work to the roster. I’ve had people say, “Well, if you’re doing all this stuff, your roster is really unbalanced.” I’m like, “Yeah, no. I I agree. It’s it’s there’s still work to do. Draft night’s going to be very important. It’s going to set the path for this team and tell us what’s possible. But there will still be work to do in July. The one thing we haven’t really considered, the one thing that has been difficult to calculate is whether the Magic will enter free agency at all. Now, the way things currently stand, the Magic do not have the tools to do much in free agent. It’s not a big free agent summer anyway. There are some big free agents, but really it’s the Brooklyn Nets and the Detroit Pistons, I believe, are the only teams with like real cap room to spend. There’s rumors about about Detroit going after Nas Reed, which feels very unnecessary considering how big that team already is. They want a floor spacing big, so I get that a little bit. Um, those rumors have some legs. They have the money. Minnesota’s a second apron team, but as now Minnesota loses in the conference finals again, they are a second apron team. Attention turns to another player, another free agent on the Wolves, Mikuel Alexander Walker, the sharp shooting wing from the Wolves. Had an excellent postseason, had some big games, had some big moments, and yeah, he’s a shooter. He fits what the Magic need. According to Mark Stein on his Steinline substack, the Orlando Magic are expected to be one of the teams fishing around for Dale Alexander Walker using the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. I will explain how the Magic can use that in a minute because as always, the rumor is less about who’s involved in the rumor and more about what it means. Because of course the Magic are interested in a player like Nel Alexander Walker. Nikuel Alexander Walker averaged 9.4 points per game and made 38.1% of his threes on four and a half attempts per game. In the playoffs, he averaged 8.3 points per game, but shot 44% on 3.3 attempts per game. So again, playoffs, things slow down, stars get more more touches. He’s an excellent three-point shooter. Last season, according to data from Second Spectrum, he made 42 and a half% of his catch and shoot three-pointers. That’s where a lot of the Magic’s three-pointers would come from. So, to say the least, yes, there should still be a big move in there somewhere. The Magic would probably still need to maybe swap out a Contavius Cwell Pope or Jonathan Isaac, another $15 million player. But Mikuel Alexander Walker would be the exact kind of free agent target they should go after. I’ll put another name in the hat. The Magic should also be fishing around for Malik Beasley, uh, the Detroit Pistons sharpshooter, who was the second best three-point shooter in the league last year, or made the second most threes in the league last year. A player who very, not single-handedly, but very realistically helped shape and shift the Detroit Pistons offense. The Pistons do not have bird rights on him. Now, they have cap room, so I do expect them to resign him. Um but but Malik Beasley would be another player to chase with free agency money. Now free agency is free agency and you have to have the ability to go out and get players. And so I’ll I’ll explain how the Magic enter free agency in the second segment. But as always, when it comes to these specific rumors, like I’m not doubting Mark Stein’s reporting. I’m not I I I do agree. I think the Magic should be interested in Kel Alexander Walker if they can free the money to get him. But it’s more about what this means. A, we know the Magic needs shooting. They should be attached to every shooter who’s available. Anthony Simons attached to him. Uh Austin Reeves attached to him. Malik Beasley, if he’s even thinking about leaving Detroit, attach to him. Ty Jerome, another another potential free agent that the Cavs are going to have a real difficult time resigning because they don’t have bird rights. Attach your name to him. So, it is important that the Magic and that everyone understand, excuse me, that everyone understand that the Magic have this ability to enter free agency. And so what this rumor means to me is less about, oh, the Magic are interested to kill Alexander Walker. Of course they are. They should be. What this means to me is that we have to recognize another door opens for free agency or another door opens in the offseason. And that door is free agency. We have assumed because the Magic are such a cash strap team right now and they’re not cash strapped. They’re not like hurt or anything, but they’re going to be paying the luxury tax for the first time since 2012. They are flirting with the first apron because of all the contracts that they’ve built up. They do have to recognize that hey Paulo Van Carol is going to jump to for at least $42 million per year next season. Um that that he is he is not going to be on his rookie contract. He’s going to get a max deal. They’re going to be flirting and doing this apron dance for a long time. So, how do the Magic have the money to outbid the Wolves for Dale Alexander Walker to outbid the Pistons for Malik Beasley? They may not be able to out bid either, but let’s talk about how the Magic Enter free agency. We’re going to get to that coming up here in just a moment. But first, today’s episode of Lockdown Magic is brought to you by Monarch Money. It’s June. We’re all getting ready for July. We’re all talking about money. We’re talking about contracts. We’re talking about salary caps. This is the money episode. And so, it is great that they’re sponsor that this episode is sponsored by Monarch Money because nobody can help you manage your money, help you manage your budget quite like Monarch Money. We’re all dealing with first aprons of our own. It’s usually our paycheck. We’re not we’re not able to spend more than we bring in. And so Monarch Money comes in to be your personal CFO, giving you full visibility and control over your finances. Monarch Money isn’t just a budgeting app. It’s a complete financial command center. You can track all your accounts, investments, and spending in one place so you stop just managing your money and start building wealth. When you start using Monarch, you realize just how much you’re spending on food delivery. So now you can budget smarter and save more. Instead of juggling multiple apps or managing your own Excel spreadsheet, you can use Monarch to check your finances, track spending, and even plan long-term goals. Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code locked on NBA at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. That’s monarchmoney.com. Code locked.NBA for half off your first year. So, this episode is about throwing away some conventions and some assumptions that I’ve admittedly made. I I did not expect and I do not expect the Magic to be big players in free agency. Yes, I think that they will make some small moves on the margins. Uh I think that they will add some key kind of low rent like minimum level players and those players will be really really important. Uh maybe the Magic try and use their taxpayer MLE, which is about five or so million dollars. Uh that’s that’s kind of the move that I’m looking for because I think the Magic really do want to avoid the first apron. I I think that is one of the goals they have for this off seasonason is to stay under that first apron and kind of keep that little bit of flexibility. um or at least if they’re going to be over the first apron, be over by enough by by such a small amount that it would be very easy to get back under at the trade deadline so they’re not dealing with those penalties heading into the offseason or dealing with repeater stuff which builds up over time and and look the Magic probably going to be a repeater tax team here coming up. So just just consider that. But how do the Magic enter free agency? How do the magic How do the magic get to an ability to use the non-t taxpayer mid-level exception? The non-taxpayer mid-level exception allows teams over the cap to sign one player or multiple players to contracts totaling $14.1 million. Now, $ 14.1 million might is probably enough to get you to Kell Alexander Walker. and Kell Alexander Walker made about $4 million last year. He’s due for a big pay raise. It’s the same deal with Ty Jerome. It’s the same deal with even Malik Beasley who was on a small a one-year $6 million deal with the Pistons last year after he kind of went in locky. There are players very clearly that are available for that full if not most of that non-t taxpayer ML. So, how do the magic get there? Get your pens and papers out. Let’s do some math. We’ve done some of this math before. We’ve talked about this a little bit before and and and I’ll get to this here. Next season, the Magic are slated to have $175.2 million in guaranteed salary. That includes the estimated max extension. The final number will come down very soon. Um max extension for Fran Vagger that starts at an estimated $38.7 million. Jaylen Suggs also at $33 million. The Magic have $175.2 million in guaranteed salary next year. That does not include rookies. That does not include the team options, which I will get to here in a minute. The Magic are already above the salary cap by about $20 million. Now, that part is irrelevant. That just means they’re paying a tax on that. That means um they’re not over the luxury tax line at this point. Um but that part’s irrelevant. That just means they have fewer tools to sign players. So, the way you sign players now is exceptions, rookie exception. You can always sign your first round picks. That is always a guarantee. um the the mid-level exception, like I said, the bannual exception. You got all you still have tools to add players, but you obviously can’t like we’re not talking like Kyrie Irving. We’re not talking we’re not we’re not talking sign in trades. You have to get under the salary cap to do sign in trades or make enough trades to get under the cap to sign the player that you’re trying to sign. You can’t just swap players anymore. That rule that that the Magic used for Rashard Lewis, for Grant Hill, for Trace McGrady, that rule is gone. That they don’t do that rule anymore. They they saw they they understood that it became a workaround. So the Magic are already $20 million above the cap, but there’s still without all this with just their guaranteed contracts for next season, they are $12.7 million below the $187.9 million luxury tax line. That means that yes, the Magic have at least part of their non- taxpayer mid-level exception. available. The Magic, I think, if I’m not mistaken, if I understand the rules correctly, the Magic can spend 12.7 of that 14.1 million and be okay. And because they’ll be under the tax line um if if I’m understanding the rules correctly, they have at least a portion of that of that tool to sign players. Now, this is where it gets tricky to to access that to access that ability to be under the tax to spend like to spend the non-t tax pyramid level exception in whole or in part, whatever the case may be. The Magic would have to decline team options on every player they have this summer. That’s Mo Vagger’s $11 million. We’re going to get to him. That’s Gary Harris’s $7.5 million. That’s Cory Joseph’s $3.5 million. and Caleb Houston’s $2.2 million. Now, they own bird rights on Vagger Harrison Houston. So, when you own bird rights, that means you’ve had a player under contract for three or more years. You can always go over the cap to resign your own players. When you have bird rights, you are unlimited in how much you can pay those players and still retain their rights over the cap. Um, they have capolds. Those are only important for signing free agents. They’re already over the tax. Cap holds aren’t important. We talked a lot about cap holds last year and and some of those cap mechanics. The magic in order to access the non-T tax pyramid level exception would have to wave essentially all of those players. Now, of those players, Caleb Houston and Mo Vagger are really the only two we expect the Magic to have some decision about. Now, decision day on this is June 29th. We will know by June 29th what the Magic are going to do with these players. So, let’s start there. Um, the magic can create the room under the luxury tax to use the non-t tax pyramid level exception, but it comes with this cost. You lose the right to control whether you retain any of those four players. And again, uh, Magic fans certainly aren’t going to be crying about Gary Harris being gone. It feels like it’s time. That’s an easy spot to replace. Cory Joseph was a good veteran, was always meant to be a one-year deal. Would not shock me if he is back. We talked with Keith Smith about this a few weeks ago. Would not shock me if he is back, but I think declining that team option is the right call anyway. Um, you do have some early bird rights on him, I believe. So, you can sign him to a limited amount, but again, he’s a minimum player anyway. It’s not that big of a deal. Caleb Houston is certainly a player that you’ve been invested in. He has shown some good signs. I don’t think it would be crazy to retain him. And obviously, Mo Vagner is, as we’re going to talk about here in a minute, a a real essential player on this team. a player who just means a lot to this team and and and helps elevate this team in some significant ways. It does not feel like it would be a good decision to part ways with him at this juncture. So, this is the conundrum because on top of let’s say you cut those four players, four players were in the rotation last year just to sign Nel Alexander Walker to a $12 million deal to let’s say four years 48. Let’s just keep the math simple. Uh four years 48, 336, whatever you want it to be for Nuel Alexander Walker. Now you are paying him that extra amount. Then you’re going to add Mo Vagner back. Maybe you get him back on a three or 24. You you decrease his salary but increases years. Give him a little more security. And then you’re paying whatever you’re paying for the trade that you’re going to make too. At the end of the day, this is all part of the same like issue, the the same conundrum, the same math problem of how do we stay under the first apron? Orlando has $99.9 million in guaranteed salary for the 2027 season before we account for Paliban Carroll’s extension or Contavius Calwell Pope’s final year on history year deal which is a player option. For now, we’re just going to assume the roster stays static. It also does not include Anthony Black’s $10.1 million team option. As I mentioned, Ben Carro in his max extension is going to make $42 and half million dollars if he doesn’t make all NBA and $51 million if he makes all NBA. I’m just saying just to get you used to the numbers, that’s the max contract for Paulo Bane Carro. Assuming they pick up all those options, the Magic’s guaranteed payroll for the 2027 season is 182.6 million. The luxury tax line is projected currently to be $26.7 million and the first apron is $215.5 million. The Magic, if I’m doing my math correctly, and I promised I I I warned you there would be some math, the Magic would still have $24 million in wiggle room before the tax next season, 2027, and $33 million before the apron. So, if you’re signing Alexander Walker to a $12 million deal and bringing back Mo Vagner, even if you resign him to another two two-year$22 million deal, that eats up all your room before the tax for next season two, and that doesn’t include your draft pick, which would probably climb you over that first April. And so, this is all a consideration. Now, again, who knows what’s going to happen. We’ll we’ll we’ll see where the dust settles. will redo all this math and redo everything after the season ends or after the offseason ends and quiets down. But the Magic are trying to avoid are dancing around this first apron. They’re going to be a tax team. They’ll bip under the tax sometimes. They’ll stay above it other times. The Magic are dancing around this line. And while it doesn’t appear that being aggressive in free agency this summer would dramatically change their outlook in 2027, it would certainly make them a tax team this year, which we’re expecting, and would certainly make them a t a a a first apron team, perhaps a first apron team in 2026, but but a potential first apron team in 2027. Let me throw one more little nugget at you here and I think this is really important and this would limit what the magic do with Mo Vagner. If you use the mid-level exception, you are hardcapped at the first apron. If you use the non- taxpayer mid-level exception, you are hardcapped at the first apron. You cannot exceed that. And so if you’re signing into Kell Alexander Walker to let’s say $12 million, that means you are limited in what you can bring Mo Vagner back on. And that is the central question now. Yes, the Magic can enter for agency. Yes, the Magic can be aggressive. Yes, the Magic can get a quality player probably with the money they’ll have and they’re an attractive place, but the cost could be one of the biggest players on their team. So, let’s review it. Why Movager is so important? We’ll get to that coming up here in just a moment. At the end of the day, I think a lot of this debate and a lot of the questions that the Magic Front Office are probably asking themselves has to do with Mo Vagner. It all comes back to Mo Vagner and how much the Magic value him, how important he is, and yeah, to some extent, how much faith they have in his recovery to get back to the level of play. The Magic have been playing the stance with Movager for a few years. This isn’t the first time we’ve sat here and said, “Oh, Mover is a team option. He could be gone.” It happened the last two seasons. Orlando signed him to a two-year deal two years ago or three years ago now. Set declined that second year on the option and signed him to a fresh two-year deal, a two-year $22 million deal. They took care of him, gave him a little bit more money, gave him another year. It it, you know, he seemed pretty happy with it. Although, if you watch the Vagab Brothers documentary, it’s a lot of stress in there. Like I I I watched that like right after Mo’s injury and was just like oh I feel he does not deserve this that dude that because like I I remember like sitting there like you know we talked about it’s like look the Magic are going to decline Mov’s team option that is a cap mechanic to create Cap room they’re going to bring him back and that’s still generally the feeling like even if the Magic decline Mov’s $1 million option is widely assumed the Magic want him back it is just a cap mechanic. It would be a way to get under the luxury tax so that you could pay. You could use the non- tax pyramid level exception. Again, you just have to be cognizant and aware of the of the the first apron of the hard cap of all that stuff. So, the question then is, is Mov? I I think that the answer is unequivocally yes. Uh, I I I think that it is abundantly clear that Mo Vagner is worth that price. Before his injury last year, he averaged a career high 12.9 points per game and 4.9 rebounds per game. Made 30 appearances and 18.8 minutes per game. His 36% three-point shooting led the team for most of the year until Caleb Py Joseph, you know, caught fire toward the end of the year and passed him. He finished third because Vagner is one of the one of the few players with an offensive mindset that just wants to put the ball in the basket. As Jamal Mosley joked several times, Bill Vagner wakes up scoring 10 points. The Magic averaged 40 points per game off the bench before Vagner’s injury. That was the fifth most in the league. They dropped to 33.3 per game after the injury and that was 23rd in the league. The Magic went from having one of the best benches in the league and one of the highest scoring benches in the league to one of the lowest. And as we look at this NBA Finals with the way the Oklahoma City Thunder play, with the way the Indiana Pacers play, Indiana Pacers have one of the best scoring benches in the league. Depth matters. And look, the Magic don’t make the playoffs without their depth. Obviously, injuries played a major role. There were a lot of guys out, a lot of guys who are normally on the bench having to start. Maybe the bench distinction doesn’t matter. injuries cut into the Magic’s depth and that is one of the Magic’s superpowers. But even during the Magic’s late season run, they still only averaged 33.4 points per game off the bench. Still in the bottom 10 in the league. Having a guy like Mo Vagner who’s going to give you 13, 14 points, sometimes boost himself up to 20 off the bench. Having a guy like him who can reliably do that is transformative for this team specifically. He may not be the greatest pick and roll uh pick and roll roller. He may not be the greatest postup player, but he knows how to put the ball in the basket. He knows how to run the floor. He knows how to put himself in scoring positions. And when he gets the ball, he wants to freaking score. Like that’s not nothing. That’s not irrelevant. The Magic get a lot out of Moagger. The Magic gain a lot from Mo Vagner. And that is that is just uncontroverted. His injury was devastating because not only did the Magic lose a key player, they lost a player that helps them keep their heads. Like, yeah, Mo sometimes feels a little bit like a hotad. Mo sometimes sometimes, you know, lets the emotions get to him and and look, he’s always trying to needle and he’s, you know, he’s he’s that kind of guy. He gets under people’s skin, but he’s always in control. Like honestly, I don’t think the issues that Mo is out of control or anything. He’s always in control. But but yeah, he’s really important. And the fact that the Magic will not have him until December, possibly maybe even January, that is something you have to consider, too. Because look, the Magic are in the business of winning now. They don’t have time to wait around on injured players. They need players who can produce. And with ACL injuries, it takes a year to come back and a year to get back to full health. So, if you’re keeping Mo Vagner, that is a two-year investment. We’re probably not going to see the best version of Mo Vagner until December or January of 2027. And that’s okay. Like, Mo deserves that patience. He has earned that patience. He is someone that has seen this team built up from the very bottom, from the very drags. He is as invested in this team and in what they’re doing as any player on this roster. Mo Vagner is super important. Is super important for this team. But the Magic have to consider all these financial consequences. They have to consider all the finances that come with keeping him. And so when June 29th comes around, Mo Vagner’s option is one of the key decisions. If the Magic declined the option on Mo Vagner, that likely means they are playing free agency. They’re going to go after a free agent with their non-t tax pyramid level exception and bring back Mo Vagner again, probably on a smaller deal, probably on a smaller salary, but on a longer deal, give him the long-term security that I think he really craves. And that the Magic clearly believe in him enough. They’ve structured his contract to get out of it easily. I don’t think they want to, but the decision on Mover is is an essential decision this summer and it’s one we will be watching very very carefully. I want to thank you all again for listening to today’s episode of Locked on Magic. You of course find us on find me on Twitter, Philip R, Philip RR_MD, and on Blue Sky, Philip RR. You can subscribe to the podcast at Apple Podcast. Tun him play Spotify Odyssey also sell podcast to your podcast listened device you can find us on YouTube as well just search for locked on magic for the latest on the Orlando Magic be sure to check out Orlando Magagic Daily.com you can find us on Twitter omagic daily and for even more Orlando Magic content be sure to check out my Patreon page where I’m doing my player evaluation series starting to get to the starters um you can find that at patreon.com/orlandomagichhub as always thank you for your support now that you’re done listen to us, be sure to check out the Locked On NBA Big Board show. NBA draft expert Rafael Barlo reacts to every workout, interview, and rumor leading up to the NBA draft. Find Locked On NBA Big Board on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. That’s going to do it for me today, though. I want to thank you all again for listening to today’s episode of Locked Up Magic. We’ll be back tomorrow. We’ll talk some draft. I want to get to some players that I’m interested in to replace Magic players that could be on the way out. We’ll get to a couple prospects there. We’ll do that tomorrow on Locked on Magic. But until then, for Orlando Magic Daily, Locked on Magic, this has been Phil Broson, right? We’ll see you again next time for another episode of Locked On Magic.

The Orlando Magic are expected to play most of their offseason moves in trades. But a new rumor involving Minnesota Timberwolves wing Nickeil Alexander-Walker opens the possibility for a new door.

The Magic can maneuver their way into the non-taxpayer mid-level exception and the ability to chase a free agent shooter like Alexander-Walker, Ty Jerome or Malik Beasley.

Doing so could cost the team Moe Wagner. There are a lot of big decisions ahead for the Magic.

0:00 New target emerges in Magic rumor mill
5:39 Alexander-Walker’s shooting stats and fit for Magic
11:18 How Magic can enter free agency this offseason
16:55 Weighing costs of declining team options
21:33 Moe Wagner’s importance to the Magic
25:36 Wagner’s impact on Magic’s bench scoring

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