MLB Betting Model LOVES These LA Angels Today vs Orioles | Friday MLB Best Bets | Payoff Pitch

welcome to Payoff Pitch Action Network’s Major League Baseball Betting Podcast i’m your host Mike Calibies i am joined today by Derek Cardi of Roto Grinders for a quick look at the Friday slate we’re going to hit you with a just a treasure trove of props and not only that we also have Billy Ward parachuting in at the end episode with some Yurfy Nerfies but we’re going to start with your best bet Derek and we’re going to look at the Angels versus the Orioles in Baltimore and I have to imagine you’re targeting this one because Charlie Mortyn is on the hill for the O’s and that’s great news for people looking for hitting props particularly home run props he’s given up 10 dingers this season to go along with his 6.59 ERA and when you get into the bullpen things look even better because from a long ball perspective Baltimore’s Penn has given up the third most home runs in the AL given up 36 long shots this season so walk me through who you’re targeting for this game because there’s a bunch of Angels that are going off at tasty numbers yeah the bad X pretty much likes anyone in the Angels lineup to hit a home run today at the odds they’re being offered at like it sees value on just about everybody uh the best one that I’m seeing right now is Logan Oppoy uh to hit a home run at plus 625 but also uh Zach Neto at plus 600 Taylor Ward at plus 550 um in addition to some other guys but those are the those are the three we’ll call kind of official official plays here yeah I’m interested that you’re you’re starting with Logan because he’s been ice cold and I think what’s interesting is you know how you go ahead and model these things he’s won for his last 25 but he did showcase great power through the first two months of the season so obviously you think he’s due in this matchup yeah uh do I don’t I don’t really believe in do but but yeah I I don’t believe either in uh in cold streaks for uh at least in terms of their predictability like if you look at you know all the studies that have been done on it like cold streaks generally don’t do a good job of predicting what the guy does next like it just kind of happens it it starts it ends more or less randomly um this is a guy who has really good power all three of these guys actually I believe have careerhigh barrel rates they’re all launching the ball they’re all hitting the ball hard um they’re facing Charlie Morton it’s uh it’s good hitting weather there today you know low to mid 80s and it seems like this year for whatever reason the books just aren’t pricing Camden Yards the way they should um which we saw in the offseason they they move the fences back in a little bit it’s been playing extremely home runheavy and uh just game after game um we’re still seeing value on this so seems like books haven’t adjusted you throw it all together and uh the Angels are showing a lot of value today so you got him at plus 625 You got another hitter in this lineup at six to one talk me through that one that’s Zach Neto um basically the same thing it’s all the all the same angle it’s a guy who is hitting really well this year the projection likes as a hitter there’s upside beyond the projection because the underlying metrics are so good and and the matchup and game environment are both really good you know we’re getting we’re getting the right odds on all these guys basically today now you mentioned you don’t necessarily believe in the hot streaks cold streaks how they correlate and how they’re predictive but Taylor Ward has hit two home runs in his last seven games is there anything under the hood in terms of his barrel rate exit velocity anything like that that makes you like him even more at plus 550 uh yeah all of it um Taylor Ward’s a guy that the bad was really high on coming into the year like if you play in a fantasy league Taylor Ward is on your team because it just loved him so much and he’s been so good he’s been even better than expected um this year basically he has 18 home runs the barrel rates a careerhigh um you know the the launch angle he’s getting it in the air a little bit more like it’s just everything about him i think you have to like you know him being hot two home runs in the last seven days great i’ll you know I don’t think that necessarily adds to his chances today but I’ll take it it’s nice to have in your back pocket so uh so yeah I I love Taylor Ward i think the skills have kind of always been there and I think we’re really really seeing it this year if you’re an Orioles fan don’t worry we’re not just picking on you we’re going to look at some other games here and some other player props let’s go to Herberto Hernandez over.5 hits at plus 190 you can get that at a couple books out there the Fish’s young outfielder is off to a hot start to his career batting 417 across 24 at bats but you’re going under against Mitchell Parker who does have a plus fast ball but kind of walk me through do you just think with a small sample size that he’s being mispriced at this point yeah so we’re we’re going under under half a hit here plus 190 part of it is he’s gotten off to this hot start and so I think you know when that happens we see the books tend to shade the lines you know too far that direction because they know that’s the side that people are going to want to bet you don’t want to bet against the the rookie who’s off to a scorching start so just right right off the bat we’re getting good odds based on that um and then I think there’s a decent amount of pinch hit risk here too for him um we haven’t seen obviously a big sample yet but the other time he started against a lefty got yanked missed two at bats against the bullpen um and so I think when you combine just kind of the odds being off based on the perception of his talent being higher than it probably actually is the chance that he gets removed from the game at some point and we’re getting plus 190 on it um this one looks like good value to me the badex has it projected um to go under about 45% of the time so at plus 190 that’s very good value um so yeah I’m I’m in on this from plus 190 to a six to one shot here with Royce Lewis to go yard this one’s interesting to me because you’re banking on the Twins third baseman to basically have an extra base hit have a home run do something that he hasn’t done in a month but Colton Gordon on the bump he’s allowed homers in like just bunches at this point he’s allowed four homers in his last five starts and you can count on fly balls specifically from him he’s given up 40 through 24 and two/3 innings worth of work this season so is there any correlation or any math that you go through when it looks at how many fly balls and the fly ball to home run rate allowed yeah absolutely the more the more fly balls you allow the more home runs you’re going to allow there you know in simplest terms there’s more to it than that but uh that is always a good thing when uh when you’re looking for a home run here royce Lewis like you said has been cold but you look under the hood and it’s like this guy is still really good like he’s hitting the ball hard he’s launching it like he’s just going through a period of what looks like really really bad luck um and so uh so I’ll take him here you know the the books have been moving on him throughout the morning uh plus 600 I believe is still out there as the best line um but yeah like I’m I’m at the point where you know Royce Lewis everyone coming into the year I feel like last year everyone’s like “Oh Royce Lewis is so good so good.” It’s like “Well let’s pump the brakes a little bit.” And now it’s uh it’s kind of the opposite he’s been so cold that it’s like Royce Lewis kind of has to be better than this guys he does from 6 to1 to 22 to1 this one really basically was was interesting as soon as I saw it I was like I I need to figure out why this guy is going off at 22 to1 kyle Isbell he’s hitting the baseball he just hasn’t hit the ball out of the ballpark since May 7th but when you look at the pitching matchup Waka is just serving him up five dingers in his last four starts so somebody’s probably going to go yard in this game and 22 to1 is one of those bets if he hit it can make your entire week so what do you like about him potentially pulling out of a you know a bit of a drought at least as it relates to uh you know the round trippers yeah this one’s purely a math play isabelle is a guy that the bat has kind of been higher on than the market for most of the year on any given day you’ll see some level of value on him probably if you’re using the bat X um but today at 22 to1 like that’s that’s really good odds um the chances him of him actually hitting a home run are going to be very very low i can get a number for you hold on real quick um the Bad X has him projected to hit a home run 5.9% of the time so probably a loser but when we talk about betting or at least when I talk about betting I talk about it as as a long-term thing you’re not hoping to win every single bet you’re hoping to get in good on the right odds and over the long run you get in get in on enough good odds that all that variance evens out you win Kyle Isbel once a month or you know something like that um and uh and you wind up profitable in the end so this is that kind of bet i’m not telling you Kyle Isabelle is like in some fantastic spot today where he’s a lock to hit a home run and then you know no you know but there is positive expected value and you make enough positive expected value bets over the long run and that’s what makes a winning better colin Witurch if you’re listening Derek is coming for your job we got a walk under here and it starts with Kate Horton under one and a half walks issued six starts for Horton on the season four with one walks or fewer so we know that he’s you know essentially not going to be someone who’s struggling with command struggling with control we also know that he’s not going to go deep he hasn’t pitched into the seventh inning this entire season and he hasn’t gone past 92 pitches in a single game do you look more so at control at pitch count at you know historical performance what brought you to Horton’s under on one and a half walks it’s a combination of everything um and what you mentioned are kind of the the main points that I was going to hit which is that his leash is short he’s a young guy they’re not leaving him out there very long he’s more often than not in that like 75 to 80 pitch range like you said 92 I think was his his season high um I’m hoping he’s more in that like 80 area today facing um a Pittsburgh team that projects a little below average in terms of uh their walk rate here uh projecting as a 59% winner so at plus 105 59% we’re getting you know a decent amount of value and uh you know I don’t necessarily believe too much in CLV for props but we have seen this market just tank all morning it opened as high as plus 135 and uh the plus 105 is the best out there right now but I I think I’ve seen it as low as like minus 120 or minus 125 at some books which I would be out on at that number i’m I’m looking for closer closer to that even money area before we get out of here let’s toss it over to the Action Network’s predictive analyst Billy Ward to talk some Yurfy Nerfies on Friday’s slate thanks Mike i’ve got two picks today both nerfies one in the early game at the 2:20 Eastern start between the Pirates and the Cubs best I’m seeing right now is minus 150 at a couple different books that’s about as far as I would take it but it is a Paul Skins game paul Ske first time through the order erra remains at 0.00 in his last start he gave up a third inning run but it was on an error so still not Paul Skins’s fault and he still did not blow a Nerfy part of the reason the Paul Skeery is such a powerful bet is because the Pirates offense is pretty bad they’re bad at the top they’re bad overall they’re just not a team that’s going to punish you too often i don’t think Kade Horton is a great pitcher by any standards for the Cubs but he’s fine and he gets to face the Pirates so we’re going to keep riding this train we’ve had really good success in this series betting the Nerfy but also anytime Paul Skins takes the mound we’re almost always going to take the Nerfy even at Heavy Juice and the other one I like today little bit um riskier but much better price is the Rays verse Mets game has just a eight-run total we’ve got Taj Bradley and Klay Holmes taking the mound holmes has been very solid i have my concerns about Bradley this is a weather game in a stadium that is already one of the most pitcher friendly according to Weather Edge about 13% less runs based on the conditions at City Field tonight we like that when they are when City Field already takes about 8% off the typical stadium so with minus 111 odds on the Nerfy I’d take it to about -1 120 or -25 given the conditions at hand even with Taj Bradley having his struggles lately that’s it for me but be sure to follow me in the Action Network app i may have more picks added later in the day as some of those games lines move thanks everyone thanks Billy that’ll do it for today’s episode of Payoff Pitch thanks for tuning in if you’d like to tail some of the bets you heard from Billy or from Derek go ahead and look for the quick slip links in today’s episode description and that’ll allow you to populate your bets in your sports book of choice right away don’t forget to download the free award-winning Action Network app and leave us a fivestar review wherever you listen to the pod also check out the Action Network Discord you can hit a link in the episode description in this podcast we’ll be back on Monday with another episode of Payoff Pitch we’ll be going live there at 10 in the morning so make sure to tune in and to hear what Shawn is cooking up i know that he’s chomping at the bit to get back into the seat and give out his best bets his favorite underdog and the rest of his card on Monday for Derek Hardy and Billy Ward I’m Mike Calibies thank you so much for listening today’s episode of Payoff Pitch Action Network’s Major League Baseball Betting Podcast and as always best of luck with all your bets

Action Network host Michael Calabrese welcomes MLB betting expert Derek Carty to give out their favorite plays on the Friday slate. At the end Billy Ward joins us to give his NRFI/YRFI bets for Friday!

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00:00 – Friday Best Bets
10:57 – NRFI/YRFI Plays

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