From the article by Giovanni Malloy, “a data scientist and sports analyst”:
>To put a number to Canada’s hockey heartbreak, I built a Bayesian model. This is a statistical approach that is designed to capture long-term trends while staying grounded in a fair and interpretable framework.
[…]
>Heading into the 1993–1994 season and fresh off the Canadiens’ most recent Cup win, the Bayesian model, would have estimated about a 60% chance that a team from Canada would win the Cup that year. But as the seasons passed and the Cup stayed south of the border, that probability began to fall. Over time, it gradually leveled off around 20%, aligning closely with what you would expect if every NHL team had an equal shot in a 32-team league.
>Using this model, the probability that no Canadian team has won a Stanley Cup since 1993 is 0.0000037 or roughly 1 in 300,000. That is roughly the same odds as flipping a fair coin and getting heads 18 times in a row. In a sport defined by randomness and parity, this kind of losing streak is not just heartbreaking. It is statistically absurd.
[…]
>Canada’s Stanley Cup drought is more than just a sporting oddity. It is a statistical anomaly that defies expectation.
Betman.
Some interesting context I looked up. Yes, in the last 31 seasons, only 8 out of a possible 62 finals teams were Canadian…pretty low percentage. However, 5 of those losses in the finals were in game 7s. The first 3 finals appearances after 93 were game 7 losses…wild.
Well its not like a championship is a coin toss every year, you actually need a good team to win so not fully convinced with that stat. Yes its bad luck but not as bad as that article makes it sound like.
It’s just the way sports work. Should they have won one in the last 30 years? Yes.
Should the Cubs have won the World Series during that 107 year drought? Yes.
Should the Minnesota Vikings have won the Lombardi given their success? Yes.
But again, that’s not how sports work.
16 teams haven’t won since Montreal in 1993. 10 of those have never won. 10 of 32 with a combined 310 seasons and 0 Cups.
16 have won a Cup since 1993. 15 since 1994. 14 since 2000. 13 since the 2005 lockout. 10 since 2008. The last 30 were won by 16 teams. The last 17 were won by 10 teams.
———————————————
The Leafs are in a category of their own being an Original 6 who hasn’t won since 1967 but they all still have a close American counterpart.
Team (Franchise Start/Last Cup)
Leafs (1942/67) – Flyers (1967/75)
Canadiens (1942/93) – Rangers (1942/94)
Canucks (1970) – Sabres (1970)
Flames (1972/89) – Islanders (1972/83)
Oilers (1979/90) – Mammoth (1979)
Senators (1992) – Sharks (1991)
Jets (1999) – Predators (1998)
Who do you think will win a Cup first?
The Leafs, Habs, Canucks, Flames, Oilers, Senators and Jets…
or…
The Flyers, Rangers, Sabres, Islanders, Mammoth, Sharks and Predators?
———————————————
If you don’t go by the ‘franchise dates’ and instead stick to when they were based in Canada or the USA, it gets pretty complicated.
Leafs (1942/67) – Flyers (1967/75)
Canadiens (1942/93) – Rangers (1942/94)
Canucks (1970) – Sabres (1970)
Oilers (1979/90) – Islanders (1972/83)
Nordiques (1979-95)* – Whalers (1979-97)*
Jets (1979-96) – North Stars (1967-93)*
Flames (1980/89) – Sharks (1991)
Senators (1992) – Predators (1998)
Jets (2011) – Blue Jackets/Wild (2000)
*won since relocating
I mean it’s not like it’s even odds or slightly unfavorable odds going into any season. 25 vs 7. Every year. So they start each season behind the 8 ball already.
Why does it matter though? These teams aren’t playing for Canada, they’re playing for their individual cities. Do we make the as big of a fuss about American teams with long droughts?
Canada won Olympic Gold in 2002, 2010 and 2014. Clearly Canada is still dominant in its proud sport of hockey. It is a significant long shot that anyone’s team is winning Lord Stanley’s Cup. And yet, because of the special qualities of hockey and its traditions, we will all gladly embrace the puck drop at the start of another fabled season. Thank you 🇨🇦!
It is all because Montreal had McSorley’s stick measured in 1993. Chickenshit move.
It’s very surprising
There’s one reason and it’s called ‘Gary’. Once Gary goes away, they’ll win another.
11 comments
From the article by Giovanni Malloy, “a data scientist and sports analyst”:
>To put a number to Canada’s hockey heartbreak, I built a Bayesian model. This is a statistical approach that is designed to capture long-term trends while staying grounded in a fair and interpretable framework.
[…]
>Heading into the 1993–1994 season and fresh off the Canadiens’ most recent Cup win, the Bayesian model, would have estimated about a 60% chance that a team from Canada would win the Cup that year. But as the seasons passed and the Cup stayed south of the border, that probability began to fall. Over time, it gradually leveled off around 20%, aligning closely with what you would expect if every NHL team had an equal shot in a 32-team league.
>Using this model, the probability that no Canadian team has won a Stanley Cup since 1993 is 0.0000037 or roughly 1 in 300,000. That is roughly the same odds as flipping a fair coin and getting heads 18 times in a row. In a sport defined by randomness and parity, this kind of losing streak is not just heartbreaking. It is statistically absurd.
[…]
>Canada’s Stanley Cup drought is more than just a sporting oddity. It is a statistical anomaly that defies expectation.
Betman.
Some interesting context I looked up. Yes, in the last 31 seasons, only 8 out of a possible 62 finals teams were Canadian…pretty low percentage. However, 5 of those losses in the finals were in game 7s. The first 3 finals appearances after 93 were game 7 losses…wild.
Well its not like a championship is a coin toss every year, you actually need a good team to win so not fully convinced with that stat. Yes its bad luck but not as bad as that article makes it sound like.
It’s just the way sports work. Should they have won one in the last 30 years? Yes.
Should the Cubs have won the World Series during that 107 year drought? Yes.
Should the Minnesota Vikings have won the Lombardi given their success? Yes.
But again, that’s not how sports work.
16 teams haven’t won since Montreal in 1993. 10 of those have never won. 10 of 32 with a combined 310 seasons and 0 Cups.
16 have won a Cup since 1993. 15 since 1994. 14 since 2000. 13 since the 2005 lockout. 10 since 2008. The last 30 were won by 16 teams. The last 17 were won by 10 teams.
———————————————
The Leafs are in a category of their own being an Original 6 who hasn’t won since 1967 but they all still have a close American counterpart.
Team (Franchise Start/Last Cup)
Leafs (1942/67) – Flyers (1967/75)
Canadiens (1942/93) – Rangers (1942/94)
Canucks (1970) – Sabres (1970)
Flames (1972/89) – Islanders (1972/83)
Oilers (1979/90) – Mammoth (1979)
Senators (1992) – Sharks (1991)
Jets (1999) – Predators (1998)
Who do you think will win a Cup first?
The Leafs, Habs, Canucks, Flames, Oilers, Senators and Jets…
or…
The Flyers, Rangers, Sabres, Islanders, Mammoth, Sharks and Predators?
———————————————
If you don’t go by the ‘franchise dates’ and instead stick to when they were based in Canada or the USA, it gets pretty complicated.
Leafs (1942/67) – Flyers (1967/75)
Canadiens (1942/93) – Rangers (1942/94)
Canucks (1970) – Sabres (1970)
Oilers (1979/90) – Islanders (1972/83)
Nordiques (1979-95)* – Whalers (1979-97)*
Jets (1979-96) – North Stars (1967-93)*
Flames (1980/89) – Sharks (1991)
Senators (1992) – Predators (1998)
Jets (2011) – Blue Jackets/Wild (2000)
*won since relocating
I mean it’s not like it’s even odds or slightly unfavorable odds going into any season. 25 vs 7. Every year. So they start each season behind the 8 ball already.
Why does it matter though? These teams aren’t playing for Canada, they’re playing for their individual cities. Do we make the as big of a fuss about American teams with long droughts?
Canada won Olympic Gold in 2002, 2010 and 2014. Clearly Canada is still dominant in its proud sport of hockey. It is a significant long shot that anyone’s team is winning Lord Stanley’s Cup. And yet, because of the special qualities of hockey and its traditions, we will all gladly embrace the puck drop at the start of another fabled season. Thank you 🇨🇦!
It is all because Montreal had McSorley’s stick measured in 1993. Chickenshit move.
It’s very surprising
There’s one reason and it’s called ‘Gary’. Once Gary goes away, they’ll win another.