Capitals Disrespected in Cup Odds | Todd Nelson Joins Penguins | Ethan Bear’s Future in Doubt

the odds makers have panned the Capitals yet again what to expect from the Caps in the 2526 season next on this edition of Locked on Capitals you’re Locked on Capitals your daily podcast on the Washington Capitals part of the Locked On Network your team every day well hello and welcome into this edition of Locked On Capitals part of the Locked On Network your team every day my name is Dan Holy i’ve covered the Capitals for the last three seasons for Locked On and various other outlets before that i’m also the host of the weekly show called The Capitals Minute Cast available wherever you find your podcasts and as always I want to thank you for making this your first listen of the day so in this edition of Locked on Capitals we talk about the Capitals in the off season and the changes that await uh one player that looks to be on the move this summer is Ethan Bear uh what kind of season did he have last season with the Capitals organization and what are his long-term plans i’ll talk about that a bit later some sad news I guess I’m going to say and congratulatory as well is that Todd Nelson leaves Hershey uh as he will be an assistant with the Pittsburgh Penguins i’ll talk about that uh but just to get it going here the Vegas odds makers have panned the Capitals yet again and it’s tough that you know despite what the Capitals have accomplished if you want to go back two seasons the last team to qualify for the playoffs the first team to qualify for the playoffs winning the Metro winning the Eastern Conference the Vegas odd makers say nah probably not the Capitals season and I’m talking FanDuel I’m talking Bet MGM that they have already kind of panned the Capitals as not doing great things uh they don’t see them playing horribly but they’re not one of the front runners to win the Stanley Cup uh and it’s interesting you know that uh you know at the end of the season the Capitals did great things they won the Metro they won the Eastern Conference and I kind of talked about how they were the underdog and uh if you want to rewind that time those people in the beginning of last season said the Capitals weren’t going to do anything either and then the Capitals surprised everyone those risky moves uh that former GM Brian Mlen made paid dividends big time pure Luke Dwis Logan Thompson Chikin and by the end of the season they’re like “Why are you calling him underdog?” I mean we knew the Capitals weren’t going to start well but then when we saw they’re going to take off then Exactly so if you’re going to you know kind of make your mark in the sand you got to do it before the season starts it’s easy to say what kind of team uh the Capitals or any other kind of team is going to be after you see how them play during large swaps of the season but right now I’m going to go ahead and say I see the Capitals being competitors um the players that ostensibly are going to be on the move uh you know who I’m talking about Mapane uh these kind of guys Radish I think the subtraction of those players isn’t going to be so much that it is going to set the Capitals back if anything the additions that they make this off season primarily on July 1st are only going to catapult this team to make it even better uh that I do think that uh new GM Chris Patrick uh very well might take a big hack or uh we might see some of the younger players rise to the surface and what is Leonard what is Crystal what is Miro uh going to look like in the 25 26 season but let’s dive into that in uh this first segment here and you talk about the Capitals like I said uh they’re doing great things metro Eastern Conference uh 50 wins the first time we’ve done that since 2017 and somehow someway bet MGM and FanDuel think we’re just the 12th best team in the league heading in to the 2526 season really is that what you have and you know go ahead put your money on other teams i think the safe bet is to put it on the Capitals as I record this uh in the latter part of June here do I think the Capitals are going to win the Stanley Cup i didn’t go that far but I do think they will make it to the playoffs um hopefully past the second round um you know and the bar that I set for the team last season hasn’t changed i would like for them to be in the Stanley Cup final and I understand it’s not easy there’s 32 other teams you know the Panthers the Oilers you got to think that they’re going to maintain if not get better um you know but how long is that sustainable for Florida uh as a lot of those players uh when you tack on Stanley Cup winner on your resume makes them that much more valuable but I think the Capitals um I think are destined for the playoffs despite uh what some of these insiders or bet MGM and FanDuel think now you take a look at it uh plus 2,800 odds to win the cup uh that’s behind teams like Toronto Tampa Bay and even the Devils uh who if you take a look at the Capitals during the regular season and good chunks of the postse season played better than those teams um because the Capitals in in fact made it to the playoffs so uh you take a look at it that there is often no love for this team and I’m not really sure why that is um I think that uh kind of the feeling outside of the Washington DMV market is that the Capitals somehow someway in 2018 caught lightning in a bottle and they got lucky uh I don’t believe that i think that it was a team that was built well and I think that the team is in a similar position you know last season despite where they finished and going into next season as well uh so let the oddsmakers say what they say uh you know at the end of the day I think let’s be real here it’s a bit disrespectful you take a look at how this team’s built dylan Stro centering with Alex Ovetkin logan Thompson uh you know one of the guys in the mix for the Vzna and uh Obie you know still chasing goals despite the fact that he caught and passed Gretzky that it is going to be the last harrah ostensibly for the great eight uh in the NHL that I think that the Capitals very well might push their chips in on a Stanley Cup winner you know and I guess it depends on what Chris Patrick wants to do i think that for what fixes to be the last season of the great eights in the NHL at least his last season that we know under current contract that he might push his chips in for a big win you know and I talked about this you know what was it a week or so ago about Brad Marshand and what kind of difference you know maker would that be for the Capitals or you know there’s names out there that are big hacks you know Conor McDavid i’m not saying they’re coming to the Capitals but those are the names in flux right now i understand that Conor McDavid is a bit of sour grape still uh after his team you know playing you know two months of postseason hockey fell short of his goal that he might test the open waters i mean I’m not saying that’s the case i think he loves playing with dryidle and you know as far as uh you know Brad Marshand is concerned i think that the Florida Panthers are going to do their level best to try to bring him back or maybe Boston will take another swing back at him i think the Capitals um could be in that mix uh I mean I guess it depends you know I I I don’t want to and I’m going to circle back to what I’ve talked about if you’re an everyday you know I don’t want the Capitals to deplete their prospects their young talent down in Hershey that the Capitals are in a good position for the first time in quite some time uh that I don’t want that to be the case but if they can finagle away if they can move on from some expiring contracts or players going into contract years I’m talking Carlson TVR these kind of guys that maybe it’s possible um if the feeling is is that Carlson’s not going to come back then why not try to get a return on him uh same goes for TVR here uh but let’s break it down bet MGM’s top dog is Edmonton um and is is that the case i mean you take a look at it playing in the Stanley Cup final they’re rolling with Carolina at plus 700 so the books think Conor McDavid or the Canes are hoisting uh the cup next season uh is that going to be the case and how much weight uh do you guys ultimately put into uh these online betting bet makers i know that that’s how they make their living and you know you got to think that there’s AI and all that kind of thing associated with it but I think the Capitals are in the mix and here’s what stings the Caps finished 12 points ahead of Carolina and 20 ahead of New Jersey and yet those two teams are still considered better bets that doesn’t track to me i really don’t think that’s the case and again I would love nothing more uh than to smear it in the face of all the detractors that think the Capitals are going to suck again and no doubt this summer we’ll have to do some preseason predictions with Locked On and those guys were wrong i mean I wasn’t 100% right either i picked the Rangers and the Capitals number two but none of my fellow co-hosts on locked on for the Metro teams thought the Capitals were going to even make it to the playoffs we’re not talking Stanley Cup here folks we’re talking about even making it to the playoffs and they made it to the second round um so it’s going to be interesting to see how it all shakes out here you take a look at it look I get that we’re not the sexy pick who are the sexy pick it’s you know who’s done the greatest things lately it’s funny it’s funny for me to say that the Panthers are a sexy pick uh five six years ago they panned the arena there it was empty seats galore now everyone’s drinking the Kool-Aid both hands on the bandwagon pulling them down the road going “Yeah I’ve always kind of liked the Panthers i want receipts i don’t believe it.” Um but you know they’re in a good position back-to-back Stanley Cup wins that they are the sexy name the Oilers are the sexy team um and you know you take a look at you know the the teams that you know could very well continue to do great things i’m talking Stars Avalanche Islanders under new leadership could be that much better you take a look at the Penguins uh the Penguins with new leadership um that it could be different you know a lot of unproven things and I’m already excited about next season and uh you know I’m hoping of course I’ll have you guys covered Unlocked on Capitals on July 1st i hope they make a big pick something that’s kind of like dropping the mic or lowering the gauntlet saying “Yeah we did that now what what do you think now NHL uh I think that it is going to be an exciting time uh to be a Capitals fan and even if they don’t go out make some big big splash they’re already in a good position right now not a lot is changing right i I I I think that the guys that the Capitals wanted to lock up they locked up save Conor Mcichael and uh uh uh Marty Farraari but that that’s something that they don’t need to take care of right now it’s something that needs to be addressed but you take a look at Chikin you take a look at Thompson uh these guys are under contract Charlie Lingren for the foreseeable future so I think the Capitals if anything are going to even get better i guess time will only tell all right so coming up here after the break a bit of sad news and a bit of a congratulatory note as Todd Nelson gets a promotion what does that mean for the Bears what does it mean for Todd Nelson i’ll discuss straight ahead looking for a snack that’s both delicious and nutritious crack into a good source of protein with Wonderful Pistachios wonderful Pistachios is one of the highest protein nuts each 1oz serving has six grams of protein giving you over 10% of your daily value plus they’re packed for you with fiber and better for you unsaturated fats to help you keep feeling fuller longer and guys I don’t know if you’re like me if you go to work and you bring a lunch sometimes in the morning you’re like I’ll bring a sandwich and maybe this and by the time it’s lunch break you’re 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@lockoncaps so in segment two here news that we saw coming for quite some time that you know you take a look at the Hershey Bears and they had won backtoback Calder Cups and um you know missing their goal this year but if you take a look at the resume of Todd Nelson he definitely elevated uh the Hershey Bears organization and he took it to uh the next level you know long history of doing great things but I think there is a big hole in Hershey uh that Todd Nelson left behind but deserving deserving of another chance at being a coach uh in the NHL so a bit of a sorry uh you know somber thing I guess as far as you know a great coach in the Capitals organization moving on presents an opportunity for another uh guy to take that role or girl whatever the case might be um and I guess the hard part about it as well is that he’s going to arrival uh in the Pittsburgh Penguins so let’s dive into that in segment number two todd Nelson leaves Hershey calder Cup legend moves on and uh you know the legend himself is heading to the pens to join the Penguins as an assistant coach yeah I know the Pittsburgh Penguins i’m not loving it either but um you know a good opportunity um there were some teams that were kicking the tires on him as far as being a head coach um and I think he would make an outstanding option to do that he very well might here i think that you know if he cementss his uh place in Pittsburgh say Pittsburgh takes a big step forward and say he has a lot to do with it uh then I think that um you know that will definitely look good on his resume showing that he still has uh what it takes in the National Hockey League but let’s not let that ruin what this guy did for Hershey two Calder Cups in three years a 704 win percentage nine straight playoff series wins uh that’s an AHL record and just the vibe he brought into the locker room is legendary um and if you talk to the players that played under his leadership if you you know uh talk to some of the fans and just the people that cover the Hershey Bears they have nothing but positivity to say you know positive things to say about him he was more than you know a head coach he was a culture builder in a lot of the same ways that Spencer Carberry has been for the Capitals and you know I think kind of the feeling for a while there was that Nelson was the head coach in waiting for the Capitals the big team and I think that was true when Peter Labulet was here and uh for some reason they decided to go with Spencer Carbier of course Jack Adams winner and just did great things a a great you know a great decision by the leadership in the Capitals don’t get me wrong but that was the feeling uh that um Todd Nelson was the head coach in waiting uh for the Capitals the big team but I don’t think Spencer Clberry is going anywhere anytime soon as he has elevated this team um and ultimately you know despite the fact removing from the situation that he’s going to a bit of rival the Pittsburgh Penguins if he was here I’d give him a pat on the back shake his hand and say “Good job.” And uh like I said there were teams out there that were you know sniffing around vancouver uh there were whispers last year too but now it’s real he’s back uh in the NHL and uh even other rumors out there uh about Dallas you know that Dallas decided to move on from Dbor even though I think that was you know kind of questionable judgment if you want to take a look at the back of Dbor’s um coaching hockey card if you will now you know let me read you this quote he gave after the announcement he said quote “What we accomplished over the past 3 years was truly special hershey will always hold a special place in my heart.” And um you know I was lucky enough to see a game in Hershey uh and quite uh for one just off the top it is like an an NHL quality facility uh if you take a look at it just you know I’ve seen a couple different AHL games from different teams on the road and let me say they’re not all like they are in Hershey so uh the Capitals organization the Hershey Bears hockey organization there they put a lot of effort into into making it like a pro experience it is pro hockey it’s the American League but what I’m saying is is that you are geared you are prepared that when you get your call up to Washington to the big team that you have a lot of the same vibes you have a lot of the same experience uh just based on the fact that you played in Hershey a a gradea organization that I have no doubt will you know select another great coach um to take that team to yet other great heights because you take a look at it a long legendary uh history of doing great things in Hershey and a lot of that here recently had to do with Todd Nelson and you can tell this wasn’t just a stepping stone for him it meant something and it positioned him to to qualify to be in the running for a head coaching job uh or an assistant in this case that um you know people have their eyes on Hershey they see what kind of organization it is and I think ultimately what put them in this position so now the Caps and Bears need uh to find someone who can follow the act the Capitals organization working in tandem with the Bears not an easy job not easy at all uh but you know like I say best of luck to Nelson just not uh when he’s drawing up penalty kill plans against us uh I guess if that is what it comes down to but uh you know you take a look at it i think that he did a good job and the proof’s in the pudding as they say right that you see what uh he did with a Hershey Bears organization and like I say if he can continue uh with his current trajectory I have no doubt in my mind that a head coaching job will come calling sooner than later all right so coming up here after the break we’ll talk about Ethan Bear uh he has been given permission or his representation to listen you know to offers he might go somewhere what is the future of Ethan Bear and would he be a good fit for the Capitals at this point i’ll discuss 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back into this edition of Locked On Capitals part of the Locked On Network your team every day the best way that you can help grow the show is to subscribe to Locked on Capitals on YouTube and comment anything down below well if you can tell by looking around me here I’m back at home back at the home studio hopefully it looks a little better hopefully it sounds a little bit better um thanks for bearing with me on the road as you know I have you know not my gradea microphone and you know the background was well what it was but anyway I’m back let’s dive into segment three talking about Ethan Bear a guy that was called up for the playoffs but did not play an NHL game in the 2425 season if you want to rewind time a little bit more when the Capitals acquired him there was quite a buzz about Ethan Bear like he was the future of the Capitals blue line then if you take a look at Ethan Bear and Rasmus Sandine that’s a one-two punt it didn’t materialize it wasn’t the case uh he also went into the NH NHL’s player assistance program got right what was wrong in his life and went down to Hershey didn’t sulk didn’t moan elevated his game to the next level in Hershey kind of ties in with what I talked about in segment two under Todd Nelson there that he found his footing uh in Hershey you know again pro hockey still but now the question is the future of Ethan Bear does he fit in in the Capitals is he that emergency healthy scratch that you can keep in the cupboard for me as a guy that covers this team I don’t think he’s the guy that I want playing uh you know on the Capitals on the Blue Line on a regular basis i I I just don’t I think that he for me right now I think he’s a good option if for some reason the Capitals decide to hold on to him that I think he would be a good piece to keep in the cupboard um the question now is is why didn’t they open the cupboard and pull him out when they needed him uh that is a broader statement a broader podcast that I could talk about Alexv and ultimately if I had to pick one or the other I would go with Ethan Bear uh over Alexv i just I didn’t like what I saw from him not horrible not great but let’s steer it back to Ethan Bear here and his future what lies ahead for Mr bear let’s talk about that in segment three so the Caps have given him permission to talk to other teams ahead of the July 1st free agency which doesn’t guarantee that he’s gone uh but you know it kind of feels like the writing is on the wall and you know like I’ve talked about and it’s just common sense common sense people you’re better to trade someone than to let it go out to free agency and get zero because then they’re not under contract and they can go somewhere and you get nothing and that’s why I’ve tied it back to Carlson and TVR that yeah it stings like peeling off a band-aid but when you’re like “Hey look at the return that we got.” I think that um you know if the Capitals you know could trade him some now and there’s not a lot of time but if they could treat him trade him before now and July 1st and get some kind of return that would be advantageous bear was an AHL Allstar this year looks pretty shiny on the resume he led Hershey defenseman in scoring 46 points in 62 games so to say he had a bounce back would be yeah I’m going to go ahead and say that it wasn’t a bounce back in the NHL but a bounce back in one level down in the American Hockey League good good thing for him eighth overall among Dmen leaguewide that’s no joke and uh he didn’t dress for a single NHL game this past season not one um and that’s a bit concerning on one on in one regard but in another regard not too surprising is the Capitals did not face any real injury on the blue line except for when Marty Farravari went down at the end of the season i know that Chikin missed a little bit of time there were you know spots here and there but big picture if I’m going to generalize the 24-25 season other than Martin Fervari at the end of the season I’m going to go ahead and say that the blue line overall was pretty healthy so he didn’t get his opportunity would he have perhaps you know there’s other guys in the mix as well and Prrisky and Iorio and and Dylan Mrath there’s a lot of guys in the mix there to to fill in but um the fact that they didn’t choose to go with him you know in the playoffs uh is one thing and there’s different reasons for why that is just based on uh where they slot into the lineup but uh it’s rough he signed that two-year deal in December of 23 but training camp came he got waved and honestly credit to the guy he embraced the demotion and uh if you are familiar with this situation uh he had to get you know what was going on in his head right he was dealing deal dealing with some issues and I’m happy he got in the right headsp space because in his professional life it steered him to be in a good position right now do I think he could land a job in the NHL somewhere absolutely just the fact of how well he played last year i got to think that there’s a team out there that’s going to take a flyer on him and say that guy’s worth a shot even if he’s a cupboard piece uh I think that that could be the case uh he said it himself playing every night no more stress of being in and out of the lineup uh he needed that and it showed he played loose he played smart he played well in Hershey uh but if the Caps didn’t give him a real look during uh the late season playoff push even as a depth position then maybe this chapter’s done for Mr ethan Bear kind of get that feeling you know and it’s a good story i know there’s some Capitals beat writers that talk about him and you know how he went into the NHL’s player assistance program and and came out better on the other end and that’s a good story i love good stories or the makings of a lifetime or Disney thing but I’m not about that i want the best person on the ice regardless of who they are off the ice or the struggles that they’re going in i care but I care primarily I guess I’m going to say about the well-being of the organization winning games rooting for him regardless of where he goes uh but I want the best option so I’m rooting for I’m rooting for him whether it’s in Vancouver Seattle uh even back out west you know whatever the case might be wherever he lands around the NHL it’s a good story and if he does stick around um you got a solid two-way defenseman with power play upside in playoff experience uh could be sneaky valuable you know that he has experience whether it’s in the NHL or the AHL that he he’s been there and he’s done that but what is his value and what kind of return could the Capitals ostensibly get for him uh but the way the CA caps blue line is shaking out carlson Chron Farravari Roy Sandine and TVR it’s crowded um and there’s questions you know and I’ve talked about it carlson question mark capitals non-committal Carlson non-committal uh you take a look at TVR as well going into his last year under contract that there could you know potentially be a spot open but you know if you’re asking me of course uh they’re not going to put Ethan Bear in for uh John Carlson and to be clear here I don’t think Ethan Bear goes in for TVR if for some reason they trade him i think where he’s at in his career and I would don’t get me wrong I would absolutely love to be wrong here i see him as just that depth piece that guy that sits in the cabinet or emergency break class we need help pull him on out that’s where he’s at um you know again he could prove me wrong uh but I think that he ultimately needs a fresh start elsewhere there was high hopes um and you know oftentimes that’s the case it doesn’t always go uh the way that you hope for but all things considered I think that uh if you’re asking me right now I think his time uh in Washington for the Capitals is over given the fact that the organization gave him the green light to pursue you know other avenues if you will um but uh all things considered I wish him nothing but the best i hope the Capitals get some upgrades uh that when like a Marty Faravari gets injured that it’s not like uhoh we didn’t plan for that you know the team that has so much defensive depth even though that’s the one thing that they really want to target at the draft but we’ve heard that the people that cover the team um you know beat Riders these kind of things they’ve said that the there’s a defensive glut on this team that you got Prrisky and Io and when it came to it none of those guys was ready we need NHL ready players and if they’re not playing you know on a night in night out basis they can play you know as a healthy scratch it’s not optimal but you know I’m you know the smallest you know violin plays for you as you’re still taking in that sweet NHL money uh so in any event Ethan Bear I wish him nothing but the best whether it’s for the Capitals even though it’s kind of leading towards somewhere else I wish Ethan Bear nothing but the best all right once again I want to thank you for joining me on this edition of Locked On Capitals your only daily yearround podcast covering the Capitals and I want to thank all of you that listen on the audio side and watch this on YouTube you are what makes this show successful when you’re done here head on over to Locked on NHL as they have you covered 5 days a week available wherever you find your podcasts and on YouTube all right once again I want to thank you for joining me on this edition of Locked On Capitals part of the Locked On Network it is your team every day my name is Dan Homie and I’ll talk to you again next time

Despite finishing first in the Eastern Conference with 50 wins in the 2024–25 season, the Washington Capitals are getting little respect from sportsbooks heading into the 2026 Stanley Cup race. Both BetMGM and FanDuel list the Caps with +2800 odds—12th-best overall—and behind teams they outperformed last season, like the Maple Leafs, Lightning, and Devils. BetMGM favors Edmonton (+650) while FanDuel gives the edge to Carolina (+700). The Capitals are also pegged as only the third-most likely to win the Metropolitan Division, despite finishing well ahead of their division rivals.

Meanwhile, Hershey Bears head coach Todd Nelson departs after three dominant AHL seasons—including two Calder Cups—to join the Pittsburgh Penguins as an assistant. His exit leaves a coaching vacancy in Hershey and a legacy of strong development for Caps prospects. Additionally, defenseman Ethan Bear, who led Hershey defensemen in points but never cracked the Capitals’ 2024–25 lineup, has been given permission to speak with other teams ahead of free agency, potentially signaling a fresh start elsewhere.

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