Evan Bouchard’s $10.5M Extension, Arvidsson Traded, & the Edmonton Oilers’ Growing Roster Gaps

Evan Bouchard’s $10.5M Extension, Arvidsson Traded, & the Edmonton Oilers’ Growing Roster Gaps

As the debris of NHL free agency clears, the Edmonton Oilers are biting their time. Is that good or bad? On today’s edition of Locked On Oilers. You are Locked On Oilers, your daily podcast on the Edmonton Oilers, part of the Locked On Network. Your team every day. Hello everyone and welcome to this Wednesday edition of locked on Oilers. I am your host Nick Cerraris. I just wrapped up my third NHL season as a host on the locked on podcast network and I want to thank everyone that is making locked on Oilers their first listen of the day. Locked on Oilers is a part of the locked on podcast network your team every day. And today’s show we are going to unpack the opening salvos of NHL free agency and the trade market from an Oilers perspective. We will start with the Evan Bousard extension. We’re going to pivot in our second segment to talking about the Victor Arbitson salary dump trade to the Bruins and then we’ll tie a bow on today’s show by talking about where the Oilers stand financially, players they were linked to, who ultimately moved on. We’ll touch on Cory Perry and Connor Brown moving on as well. But to get things started, to get this conversation flowing, it was essential that the Edmonton Oilers took care of Evan Buchard on a number of fronts. Number one, most importantly, he’s their best defenseman. And I know there are going to be people who want to say Ekholm is still their best defenseman. I am inclined to say that Bard going forward is going to be this team’s best defenseman. I think there’s an argument he is amongst the top 15, at worst defenseman in the entire world. This is one of the best playoff performers in the NHL right now. The only defenseman who averages more career points per game at that position in the history of the sports, Bobby Y. Anytime you’re in the same sentence as Bobby Y, you’re doing something right. And number two, this is how you tell Conor McDavid you are serious about maintaining a serious Stanley Cup contender around him. You think about the first eight, seven years of the McDavid dryidal tenure and the variety of defenseman they’ve they tried and auditioned and Oscar Clebbomb’s injury, you know, unfortunate byproduct of the physical nature of the sport. But KFB bomb, Darnell Nurse, Duncan Keith, not terrible choices, but none of them the caliber of player of Bousard. And this is one of the real benchmark skill sets you need to have. And it doesn’t need to be as offense first. You know, you can win with your best defenseman being skewed towards defense as the Florida Panthers have exhibited with with Gus Forsling. But you think about this just purely from a roster building standpoint. If you decided we can’t afford to keep him, we need that $10.5 million to fill out our roster. There was not a defenseman available within I can’t even think of a defenseman that I would feel even moderately good about as a replacement for Evan Bard that was available in free agency. And quite a few of the candidates didn’t even get there. I I know there might be a little devil on your shoulder whispering they could have did one year of Brent Burns. Yes, on the surface Brent Burns probably would be passable, but not nearly the caliber of play driver he used to be. And frankly, not nearly as good as the play driver Evan Buchard is now. And I know the number is a lot. $10.5 million is an unfathomable amount of money for most people. It makes Evan Buchard one of the highest paid defenseman in the entire NHL. This puts him ahead of Darnell Nurse. And I know there’s been quite a bit of pointing and laughing from other fan bases that the Oilers are paying Buchard and Nurse about 20 million combined when most people know they would like to get rid of Darno Nurse, but his full no movement clause precludes that. So when you’re paying that much for two defensemen, it puts you in a really difficult spot. We’ll see what ends up happening with the Dallas Stars with Thomas Harley and Miro Heiskining going forward. There’s a world where those two combined could push for $20 million relatively easily. the I I was very surprised surprised, excuse me, to see the number that Vladislav Gaver came in at at only 7 million per year when I expected it to be between eight and nine. So him and Adam Fox, that’s only 16 million. Still a lot of money for two defenseman, especially for someone Gabricov who’s not going to put up counting stats, somebody who’s more of a defense first guy. But this is one of the signs to Connor to Leon, hey, we are serious about maintaining this. And
I found this.
And from a roster perspective and organization perspective, this gives you cost certainty for the remainder of Conor McDavid and Leon Dryidle’s physical primes. And Connor and Leon not old. 27, 28, 29, those are not old by any measure. And generally speaking, those types of players, the superstars of the world, they age more gracefully. They don’t have dramatic drop offs where they go from being point- per game players to half a point game player in one or two seasons. That’s a gradual overtime thing. You look at how well Sydney Crosby, Alex Ovetkin, Gino Malin are still playing to this day and those guys are in their late 30s, 37, 38, 39. And Connor and Leon have a long way to go before they get there. But you lock up Evan Buchard for his age 26, 27, 28, and 29 seasons while Connor assuming is going to sign a three or a four-year deal and dry locked up for eight. So you have your number one defenseman, your number two center, and then you get to tell Connor, “Hey man, beyond you three, yeah, we have Hyman, we have Nan Hopkins, we have Darnell Nurse, you are our core six guys. In an ideal world, we’d find a way to get out from under that nurse number, but we know you guys like each other. We’re we’re amendable to making this work. We’re going to have to be squeezed. We’re going to have to be threadbearing in other sp part parts of our lineup just cuz we don’t have the money. But we’re going to get creative here around you guys. And now that we have some cost certainty of what Bouch and Leon are going to cost the next few years, where does that put you at? what number can we work with for you so that we can put all of this together and then from there have a real operating budget to understand where we’re going because now that you have Bouch at 10 a.5 you got dry cidle at at 14 okay we’re at 24.5 million what’s Connor getting is Connor getting 16 17 maybe even $18 million per year are we going to be north of $42 million for three players then nurse will put us over 51 million and Nan Hopkins will put us in the low 60s and then we’ll have about 34 $35 million to fill out the rest of the lineup because that becomes a challenge and we’re going to talk about that more in our second and third segments as far as the lineup holes and the money because those are essential components and questions we have. I know the Oilers were linked to a handful of guys out there like Brock Besser who ended up signing back in Vancouver at a number the Oilers could not have matched. I mean, even after trading Victor Arvdson, the Oilers only have about $5 million in cap space and Brock signed for over 7 million to stay in Vancouver. So, that was out of the question. Connor Garland signed for about 6 million to stay in Vancouver. that probably also out of the question without an additional subsequent move which also would have given the Oilers another hole in their lineup because don’t look now but after trading Victor Harverson after trading Aander Kane after letting Jeff Skinner walk in free agency the Oilers have a lot of holes in their forward group and I know they’re going to find a way to replace some of these holes but you lose four forwards from your starting 12 in a single off season it’s going to require some creativity to fill in those gaps. Now, I’m not saying that’s impossible. Teams do it all the time. Good teams are going to feel the cap crunch and get squeezed and lose good pieces. But now, you’re going to have to be a little more resourceful. Now, you’re going to have to be a little more creative. And speaking of getting creative, the Oilers only got a fifth round pick for Victor Robertson. But coming up next, I’m going to tell you why that’s probably about as good as you were going to do. Coming up next on today’s edition of Locked On Oilers. Did you ever wish managing your money felt easier? With Monarch Money, it can. Whether you’re growing your savings or planning a big purchase, Monarch puts you in the driver’s seat. It’s like having your own personal CFO, giving you full visibility and control over your finances. Monarch Money is so much more than a budgeting app. It’s a complete financial command center. You can track all of your accounts, investments, and spending in one place. So, in addition to managing your money, you are building real wealth. Something I’ve definitely been guilty of at various points in my life is not saving enough for the things I want to do and ending up needing to borrow. And instead, since I signed up for Monarch, I was able to build out a savings plan, get to the target number, and book the vacation I cannot wait to go on in August. So, if you are ready to take control of your finances with MonarchMoney today, use code locked on NHL at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year subscription. One more time, that’s monarchmoney.com code locked on NHL for half off your first year’s subscription. Thank you to everyone who is hanging out on this Wednesday edition of Locked on Oilers after the opening dust has begun to settle from free agency. And we’ll have a deeper dive on Evan Bousard later in the week, but I did want to cover the topical news as we go. I know the Buchard news broke in the middle of the day late yesterday. I wasn’t able to get another episode out on top of the episode that was already recorded. So, I wanted to make sure I covered all of my bases best I could because I understand you have a lot of options when it comes to your content. And if I don’t do as good a job as I can, you’re not going to stick around. And it’s my goal to make you a little bit smarter, to give you more information, to help you be as informed as you can be when it comes to the Oilers. And with that said, I was very excited last summer when the Oilers signed Victor Robertson and Jeff Skinner. I thought it was a really inspiring decision to see the Oilers say, “No, we don’t need to get bigger and more physical. We just need more guys who can put the puck in the net.” And both Skinner and Arverson had significant NHL track records of successfully contributing to offense. Now, neither is what I would classify as a play driver, someone who can make their own offense, who create for others, but both are pretty strong supporting cast members. Dev Skinner’s got a couple 30 goal seasons under his belt. Arverson’s got a couple 50, 60, even 70 point season under his belt. Those are good supplementary players and they were both coming off of depressed value seasons. Jeff Skinner was bought out from that ludicrous Buffalo contract that we all knew was bad the moment Buffalo offered it. And then Victor Arbertson was coming off of a serious injury. He only played 15 regular season games in 2023, 2024 for the LA Kings. He had 18 points in those 15 games, but Arvdson profiled as the ideal prove it contract guy in his early 30s coming off of a serious injury. Had enough of a sample at the end of the last at the end of the previous season to say, “No, I’m healthy. You can sign me.” And I thought the practice, the execution here was good. I liked what Arvidson and Skinner brought in terms of their skill sets to this Oilers team. The problem of course being I don’t think the Oilers really got what they wanted out of either guy. And I think some of that is maybe a matter of the fact it was Jeff Jackson who’s the president of the team who made those signings, made those offers as opposed to the GM. We know Ken Holland his contract expired at the end of the season la uh after the 24 season. So Jeff Jackson on an interim basis stepped up and did the GM role, signed some free agents, made a trade or two, and then based on that, the Oilers were in a bit of a financial pickle. That’s what made them vulnerable to the offer sheets from St. Louis and they ultimately had to make the Cody Cece trade and they had to figure out some ways to make the money work all the way around. But the idea was right. getting lowcost, high upside guys like Arverson and Skinner who had lots of NHL experience, who were professionals, who were veterans as supplementary roles. And as the Oilers, you’re a Stanley Cup contender and you’re offering the opportunity to play with Conor McDavid and Leon Dryidle. Now, Jeff Skinner, I think, falls into a different category because he just very clearly Chris Knobblock did not see the vision there. Chris Knobblock did not feel Jeff Skinner’s game translated to what he wanted, especially in a top six role. We know that at the start of the year last year, Skinner got a look with both McDavid and Dry Cidle. And I really wish Knoblock had been a little more patient and given that one of those permutations a little more time to figure it out just because of the upside. Like on a perm minute basis, Skinner was one of the Oilers best players last year, but he didn’t really play enough to make enough of an impact. And because his defense was suspect, his forcheing was suspect, Chris Knobblock preferred to play guys like Vasili Pod Coulson over him. So when you have a season like Arbitson just did where nothing was inherently wrong, but the cohesion wasn’t there. I I I I don’t think Victor Arvittson was a particularly strong style fit, especially to play with dry cidle. I think Arvdson, generally speaking, has been more of a rushbased offense player. somebody who’s useful at creating in twoon- ones, threeon twos. Somebody I think who frankly probably would have played better with Conor McDavid than with Leon. And that’s not to say Leon isn’t a good transition player. He’s just not as much of a speed transition player. He’s a good skater, but he’s a lot more inclined to use body faints and misdirection to create speed space and opportunities for himself and his linemates. And frankly, as the season went along, you saw him and Pod Coulson really develop a synergy on the dumping chase where Leon would send it in from the neutral zone and Pod Coulson would fire up, follow up, and go and get it. And same thing, Pod Coulson would be carrying through the neutral zone. He would dump it in, go get it, and Leon would be there. And it’s part of why Leon put up one of his best goalcoring seasons of his career, why he won the Rocket Rashard. He was playing with complimentary guys. And when you’re a star, you’re a great player and you’re playing with those supplementary pieces, you’re going to be more inclined to take more of an active distri, excuse me, more of an active shooting role because when the play ends in a shot from dry cidle, you feel good about that. When the play ends in a shot from the point or from one of the wingers, you don’t feel as good about that because they’re not as good of a shooter as Dry Citle. And as for Harvardson, he didn’t have a bad season, per se, but coming off of that type of year, I understand why the Oilers felt getting that cap space back would be more helpful. And getting that cap space back gives them the maneuverability to make one move. They’re sitting with about $5 million in cap space right now, a little over that. And after trading Arverson for a fifth round pick, trading a Vander Kane for a pick, you have created two top six lineup holes, you also have at least two bottom six lineup holes in Cory Perry and Connor Brown leaving, but we’ll talk about that more in our next segment. And really quickly, you are realizing just how tricky it’s going to be to put together a really good. And look, the Oilers are spending more on their defense than their forward group right now. And that might change depending on what Connor’s number comes in at and what they choose to do to fill out the bottom half of the lineup. We haven’t talk talked too much about Matthew SA or Noah Phillips so far this summer. I think both of those guys are candidates to play some type of role on next year’s team. Both as an opportunity to kind of seize a spot, but also a cost cutting measure. If you have a guy who’s coming in at a million, million and a half or less, that puts you in a position where you can financially afford to pay, you know, two or three guys 30, $40 million combined. So, it’s a real tight rope to walk. It’s a real delicate balance. But, as for Ardson, sometimes, you know, making good decisions, good in in theory, doesn’t pay off. And I don’t I don’t think the Oilers would I don’t think the Oilers would say they regret the decisions they made last summer. Do I think that in an ideal world they probably would have just kept Dylan Holloway and Philip Roberg as opposed to signing Skinner and Harvard? Yeah, probably. I think there’s a strong case to be made they would have done that if they knew now what they knew. If they knew then what they knew now. I I knew I was going to mess up saying that. That’s why I started talking really slow like I didn’t know what I was saying. Sorry about that. But knowing what you know now, it it’s really easy to say, “Yeah, they should have just kept Broberg and and Holloway. They should have got those contracts squared away, made sure they weren’t vulnerable to offer sheets.” And instead, here they are with serious roster holes, not a lot of money to improve, to add to fill those holes. A massive question in net. Alex Lion is reportedly signing with Buffalo. So maybe one of the Buffalo goalies becomes available in a trade. Maybe one of the Montreal goalies or whether it’s Dobachev or Montenbball becomes available because they signed a third goalie as well. But right now you are looking at an Oilers team that based on how last season went. Nude McDavid Heyman question mark Dryido question mark question mark Adam Henry question mark question mark Matias Yanmark question mark are Tomasek Savois Noah Phillip and Max Jones filling those question marks. I really hope not. You know, Pod Coulson and Kaan, I think you can get away with one of those guys in the middle six, but not both. I think if Kaan’s playing with Dry Cidle and Pod Coulson for a good chunk of next year, that’s not a good outcome for the Oilers. And I liked what they got out of Kaspari Kaepern last year, he’s not a top six player in the NHL on a good team. On a bad team, whatever. Yeah. You know, if he’s on Seattle, if he’s on Chicago, sure. But on an Oilers team that’s going to be expected to be a seriously good team, a serious contender, they got a lot of holes and they don’t have a lot of money to fill them. So coming up next on today’s edition of Lockdown Oilers, I’m going to tell you why moving on from Cory Perry and Connor Brown, though maybe emotionally painful, was the right decision. Coming up next, where we’ve got your team covered every day. And a big thank you to everyone who is hanging out on this Wednesday edition of Locked on Oilers as the debris of NHL free agency and the early stages of the trade market take shape. Real quick, um I didn’t think Brock Basser was a fit for the Oilers based on finances or on style. I’ve been very adamant that though I love Brock, he’s one of my favorite players, he’s not the best of skater, he doesn’t really create for others. He’s really more of a conventional straightline trigger man. someone who unless he was going to play with dry cidle I didn’t really see a fit and then the money coming in at over $7 million per year even after dumping Victor Harvardson the Oilers only have about 5 million in cap space so Brock would have would have had to take significantly less money I I I suppose they could potentially be inch in on Nick Eers but I also don’t think the money is going to work there I think Eer’s really lucked out on the market that’s going to be developing here uh Marner signing for as much Mner getting signed and traded really put Eers in the driver’s seat here as the best player available in free agency. He’s going to command, I don’t want to say as much as he wants, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Eers was getting 8 and a half $9 million per year from Carolina or from Utah, you know, teams that are robust and flush with cap space who desperately need high-end talent. And Eler is a very good player. He’s one of my favorite analytical darlings. He’s a great transition player, one of the best carriers of the puck through the neutral zone in the entire league. There are some questions about his durability, about his motor, about his grittiness, but I I am always going to be inclined to take the talent and say we can figure out the rest based on what we do around you. And though I think Eers would be a really fun fit for the Oilers, I don’t think the money’s there. I don’t think you could commit what he’d be looking for without jettisoning another player. You know, if there was a way you get out of nurse’s nine and a quarter, yeah, then we could talk about Nick Eers, but barring that, you know, you have to trade Adam Henrik who’s making 3 million to get to 8 million. And then 8 million still probably not enough to sign Nick Eers. And then speaking of money and making things work, Conor Brown signing with the Devils for four years for $3 million per year. That’s way too much money for what he’s going to offer the Oilers. He he was a very worthwhile investment each of the last two years. Even with the performance overages from the year before hitting this season being a little bit of a budgetary constraint, Connor Brown really solid hockey player. You love the straight line speed. you loved what you got from him on the penalty kill in the playoffs two years ago when they had one of the great penalty kills in the history of the playoffs. But for $3 million, he’s not going to put up the the amount of offense you’re going to need for that. And I know I need to reframe my brain around the salary cap being 95.5 million as opposed to 80 89, 88 and a half, whatever it was this past season. But at the same time, if he’s not going to put up 30 to 40 points, three three and a half million, that’s that’s too much for what he was going to bring to the table. And I like Conor Brown. He’s a good dude. He plays a really honest game. He plays a style of hockey that I understand why Chris Knobblock liked him so much, why he got those opportunities to play with Conor McDavid at various points this past season, why he was a staple on that third line with Adam Henrique. And I wish there was a way they could have made the money work to keep Connor Brown. He’s an ideal bottom six guy, but $3 million for that skill set just isn’t where the Oilers can afford to be right now. Whether or not that’s a Matthew Savois or Noah Phillips spot, that third line rightwing, that remains to be seen. I do think the Oilers are going to need to add at least one or two forwards in free agency. even if they’re dart throws, you know, even if it’s someone like Max Patcheri coming off an injury laden season on an over 35 contract, maybe you look into something like that. But I I think the Oilers definitely need to add another forward just purely to have bodies. And then speaking of over 35 contracts, Cory Perry really cashed out you going from $1.1 million as an Oiler this past season to as much as three and a half million as a member of the LA Kings for this upcoming season. Now, some of that money is structured through bonuses, which won’t count against the cap until next year. I’m sure the Oilers could have made an incentive laden contract, but $3.5 million for what Cory Perry is going to bring to you as a king is crazy. Now, as an Oiler, 19 goals in the regular season, did a really good job in extremely limited minutes. You saw how effective he was in the playoffs. I mean, he was a real key in that second and third round, especially when Zack Heyman got injured in the Dallas series. You saw Perry consistently be the only Oiler who was really getting any netront position who was getting that first power play opportunity. I was really happy to see the Oilers find something there. And even though last year I was very I I don’t want to say sour, but I felt like they were paying too much for Connor Brown, like they were paying too much for Cory Perry based on what they had given the prior season. And both of them gave reasonable value, but that’s the type of market the Oilers are going to need to be in. Now, I understand money is going to be a little bit different now because the cap’s up. So the old 1 million is like 2 million now. The old one and a half is closer to three. And that’s probably why Perry got three. Perry’s weird cuz it’s bonuses and they won’t count against the Cap till the following season. But when you’re talking about good but one-dimensional or limited or role players, you got to be really smart. And for the Oilers, it’s going to be challenging to find interesting pieces. Now, there are probably going to be some non-tendered restricted free agents who are enticing. There are probably going to be some guys coming off of injuries or buyouts, very similar to what we had said about Victor Arbertson and Jeff Skinner. sifting through all of that and finding the right guys. That’s going to be a challenge. But like we said before, the Oilers are going into next season with a lot of question marks. Even if you want to be generous and say of that initial lineup with six question marks, which are all the wingers other than dry um other than Nen Hopkins and Heyman, and you want to say, well, Pod Coulson and Kaen are two of them. Okay, you still have two blanks in your lineup right now. At least two, if not four. You know, I’ll say two based on the idea Savois, Noah Phillip, or maybe Tomishek is going to be two of the three, two of the four empty spots. Even then, you still need two more guys. And honestly, you probably need two top six guys. And if you want to say, well, Leon can drag good performances out of mediocre players. They only need one. Okay, one top six winger is going to cost more than the cap space you presently have. And that’s why there was a lot of conjecture yesterday about maybe they find a way to trade Adam Henrik and his $3 million to create space to maybe make a play for Besser or for Eers. And now sitting here, you can’t trade Henrik because then you’re creating another hole. I’m realizing I forgot to put Trent Frederick on my list. Okay, so being that I’ve I’ve been talking out of my butt for the last five minutes because I forgot about Trent Frederick. Let’s say they want to put Trent Frederick as the two leftwing. Let’s say they put him with Leon. Okay. So, you’re going to say Pod Coulsen’s the third line left wing. Okay. The fourth line left wing is who? Tomishek. I almost said Zack Jones. Not Not correct. Max Jones. Okay. Do you really want one of those guys as your fourth line left wing? Okay. Even then, you can get away with that. But on the opposite side, who’s playing behind Heyman? All right. Keenan’s one of those four spots. Savvois. Noah Phillip. Do you feel good about either of those guys in a top six role? Savois Phillip or Kaspar Kaepern for that matter? Not really. You need a top six winger on this team. And maybe that’s an inseason addition. You know, maybe that’s the trade deadline target. And then we still haven’t talked about the fact they need another goalie. As much as the Oilers want to say we don’t think there’s value out there, we’re going to struggle to find the value we’re looking for. You can’t look at me with a straight face and tell me you feel good about them running back Skinner and Pickard again. You know, is is there a trade to be made? That seems to be the only way because with Jake Allen resigning in New Jersey and with um Alex Lion signing in Montreal, excuse me, in Buffalo, where are the Oilers finding a goalie? It has to be in the trade market. Whether that’s Montal, whether that’s Devin Levy, whether that’s to Dobbachev, whether that’s Ukal Lucin, the Oilers need a goalie, they need a top six forward. Those two commitments will cost more than the cap space they already have. Hell, one of those commitments is probably going to cost more than the cap space they presently have, unless they take a dart. If they take a restricted free agent, if they take a a player coming off of a buyout or an injury, maybe you can manufacture a decent 15 20 goal season playing alongside Leon. But even then, it’s not a great place to be in with this many question marks. There’s plenty of time left in the off season, but with the limited cap flexibility, it is hard to see a world where the Oilers aren’t going to go into the season without at least one major hole. But that will do it for today’s edition of Locked on Oilers. If you could be so kind, please subscribe to the show wherever you get your podcast. If you happen to be listening on Apple or Spotify, please take an extra second and leave the show a fivestar review. If you’re watching over on YouTube, hit that subscribe button, hit the like button on the video. Let me know how you feel about the Oilers roster holes. Before we sign off, just got to remind everyone, go check out Locked on NHL, wherever you get your podcast or over on YouTube. I will talk to you guys tomorrow. Until then, let’s go.

On today’s episode of Locked On Oilers, host Nick Zararis reacts to the Edmonton Oilers signing Evan Bouchard to a massive $10.5M AAV extension and trading Victor Arvidsson to the Boston Bruins for cap relief. With Jeff Skinner also gone, Corey Perry and Connor Brown out, and no goaltending solution in sight, how will the Oilers fill key forward and net minder roles? Nick breaks down the future of the forward group, remaining free agent options, internal promotion risks, and why Stan Bowman is running out of options 0:00 Intro: Oilers free agency and Bouchard extension

5:13 Bouchard deal signals commitment to contending

10:19 Arvidsson trade and roster holes analysis

15:54 Oilers’ tight salary cap situation

21:30 Brown and Perry departures, forward needs

26:35 Goaltending and top-six forward needs to plug the growing number of roster holes.

Evan Bouchard’s $10.5M Extension, Arvidsson Traded, & the Edmonton Oilers’ Growing Roster Gaps

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