Atlanta Falcons Best & Worst Case Scenarios in 2025 | Falcons Podcast

Atlanta Falcons Best & Worst Case Scenarios in 2025 | Falcons Podcast

And let’s see. It didn’t go on. It wouldn’t go to that Twitter account because it has to have a premium account. Well, why don’t you tell me that before I set up the stream, dummy. So, we won’t go to that one. We’ll go to this one instead. And thank you for being with me as I’m going through this live messing with Streamyard. So, hopefully it’s working. Okay. And now we’re on X. Welcome in everybody. This is the Falcons podcast. My name is Scott Kennedy. is Wednesday and it’s been a soggy, steamy summer so far, but we are into July, so we are just a couple weeks away from training camp. Nick will be joining me shortly. He is resetting his Wi-Fi router. Hopefully, he’ll be able to get uh better Wi-Fi when he moves because that’s coming up soon. Uh he actually didn’t choose Charleston, so he’s not coming to the Southeast. Actually, wasn’t his choice. His wife chose Denver, so they’re moving to uh to Colorado. So, not a bl. But as we are starting to get through some of the topics where we say, “Hey, that’s a good summertime topic because there’s not really much going on.” Uh then we hit training camp which is coming up in a couple weeks and we’ll be all over training camp for the uh for for everybody with all of the new faces that I’m really excited to see. I’ll head out a few times. Uh Aresh who you may have seen over on Falcons SI recently, he’ll be over there so we’ll have plenty to go. Troy Green, how live are we? We’re live, baby. We’re live. Uh Som, good morning. That’s one of the reasons we go live is because we like having the conversation with y’all. So, good morning Dave Glassman is in the house. Good morning, Austin Fry. He’s hitting off with the topic already. He says, “Good morning, Falcons fan. I see worst case seven and 10 and best case 12 and five. I’ll just be happy with a playoff birth.” Yeah, so that’s one of the things we’re going to talk about. Yahoo Sports did a big spread on the Falcons with their power rankings and best case, worst case, offseason grades. We did it all in one big thing. We’d made several articles out of it and kind of put our our uh our spin on it, but I wanted to talk about it here because I have a little bit more personality on a podcast than I do on my writing, right? I’m a little more conservative in my writing than I am in the podcast. That’s what podcasts are for. Podcasts are to to have a little bit more fun. So, we’ll start talking best case and worst case. And uh I want to get after the uh where I where I took issue with part of their offseason grades and it won’t take you long for you longtime watchers to realize where I’m going to have a problem with what was written when I read it out to y’all. So good morning uh Austin Mad Scientist is here as well. John Harrell got another Austin in the house. Good morning. Good morning. Uh smooth C78. He says what’s up? Have a sip. You know what? I will drink to that. I’ve got um I’m not a huge fan of flavored coffees, but this is that uh it’s a coconut roast from Lion Coffee. It’s freaking good. U so it’s uh I’ I’ve enjoyed it. I’m about through my two-lb bag. I’ve got another one in the uh got another one in the hopper that I’ll get to later. Um John Harrell says, “Our first six games are going to be rough. Three and three might be good. One and five or 0 and six could be tough. Yeah, I one and five might be tough to bounce back from, but you know, last season it was tough, too. And the Falcons got off to a six and three start when they started off. They didn’t need to lose that game to Pittsburgh. That was a game they should have won. I’ll stand by that one. Uh that was like that was a rookie rookie coach, so to speak. I mean, you know, Raheem hadn’t been a a head coach in a long time, but a rookie head coach, a rookie offensive coordinator, a rookie defensive coordinator and it and with a first year quarterback coming off an injury and they played like it they played it like it was a preseason game like we don’t want to show too much. It was nuts. But then, you know, going up to Philadelphia and getting that win was huge. U and then um you starting two and two. So, if they can survive that out of the gate, it will uh it it this team should, especially with as many young players they have and especially the quarterback position, uh with the young players that should continue to improve as they go along. And I’m hoping the defense starts finding its feet. I mean, there’s there’s a lot of new faces on the defense, but they and I’ve said before, one of the reasons why it gives you hope for the defense is because the bar was set so low that they have to improve. the defense has to be better. How much better becomes the big question here. Um, but some says no Nick. No, Nick will be here shortly. He’s restarting his router. And Joe says I should go live from the camp. I’m not sure. I haven’t spent a lot of time over there. And when I do, I don’t even I haven’t even bothered getting a credential, honestly. I could I’ve got credentialed writers there. Daniel Flick was credentialed. Are Ray, he’s he’s credentialed. I could get one. I don’t necessarily want a credential because then they kind of hold it over your head for the things that you might say that might make them mad and I can’t go too long without making somebody mad. I’m too opinionated. So, I kind of just hang out on the hang out on the hill with the fans and sit there and mind my own business and watch and uh and see. But, we’ll see. We’ll we’ll see this year. But, I don’t plan on going live from the camp. U it might just be where I get to say hello to a lot of folks. A town for life, good to see you. He says, “Good vibes for everyone.” Absolutely. Thank you for the for the good words. And Troy Green is good to see you, Troy. He says, “Just so you know, I got to hide at work to catch y’all live. I’m so ready for some football. Can’t wait for Penn to make the safeties play back.” Um, so Alier and and Bjan and hell Kyle Pittz to see unstacked boxes from time to time. Exactly. There should definitely be more room out there, more space. I mean, we saw what difference space can make. Nick, good to see you. because the Falcons gave the other team acres of space on defense last year and they couldn’t get anybody off the field. So, we know what a difference that having that space to work with can be. And frankly, Bjon Robinson, I mean, off the top of my head, I mean, there’s there’s probably another answer, but is he right now maybe the best make you miss in space running back in football? Probably. Uh, probably. I mean, Jir Gibbs is up there,
but he has a little bit more just like pull away from guys versus the start stop. Saquon is not necessarily make you miss. He is make you miss, but it’s not, you know, grasping air. It can be. Uh, but
no, he’ll get a guy off balance and then break a tackle.
Yes,
Jean’s one of those over him.
Yeah, exactly. You know, he he he’s a and I’m not, again, make you miss to me the best I’ve ever seen. I can’t say best all time, but I think he’s the best all time. The best all time set you up and make you miss running back was Barry Sanders.
Barry.
Um Carell Williams, if you watch for USC fans, if you watch Cadillac in his prime at Auburn, he was that guy where if you were had him in the open space, you might not touch him. It was unbelievable the way he could set a guy up and then and then and then go around him without ever laying a finger on him. Um, Eric Metaf had some of that for the Falcons, but he was, you know, 180 pounds, 175 pounds when they moved him to slot receiver. But having some space with some of these weapons, and oh, by the way, good luck, you know, to whoever is one-on-one with Tyler Algier when he only has to go through one guy instead of four. So, having more space is a good thing. So Nick uh went through this this big long Yahoo article and I want to talk about, you know, some of the best case and worst case scenarios. And they didn’t get into too specifics. One of the things I wanted to hit on real quick, you know, they go through the they they rehash the the the draft and the uh last year’s draft, the 2024 draft, and the cousin, you know, the reaction to the Penn, and how now everybody’s thinking, boy, it’s a good thing they have him. It’s like, no, this there’s so much revisionist history in this that it just bothers me. It wasn’t Pennix that was the problem. It was the the resource allocation that was the problem. You know, we always wanted Nick. We always wanted a a rookie quarterback at the number eight spot. You know, until they spent $100 million like, okay, well, they feel pretty good about what they’ve got. They’re going to go for it. Well, they tried to go half in and half out. It didn’t work out so well over the course of 17 games.
No. And obviously it is revisionist history, but be just because the sequence of how the offseason progresses when the draft comes around, it’s a different perspective as you’re talking about because you already have Kirk Cousins in hand. But we were talking I mean Sam Darnold plus JJ McCarthy uh was something we talked about a good bit uh for this Falcons team.
We talked Justin Fields, we talked Russell Wilson.
Yep. Yep. You know, we hit a lot of those guys where you get a $10 million and it’s so funny. You know, some smart guy will come in the comment if they had Sam Darnold, you know, you guys would have lost your mind. I’m like, no, we would have started the rookie [ __ ] That was kind of the whole idea was was putting the rookie in there and then you have a veteran backup. Anyway, long long gone, but going once they get into the offseason grade for this, let me see who wrote this real quick. Uh, I just said Yahoo Sports, but who wrote it? The name on it is Frank Schwab. You know, I’m not listening to Schwab when EF Hutton talks. I’m not sure. Um, but it says offseason grade. Now, tell me everybody, raise your hand when you hear something that’s going to piss me off. The Falcons huge trade up to draft James Pierce Jr. in the first round was widely criticized. The front office must be used to that by now. The Falcons overpaid, giving up a second a 2025 second and seventh round picks as well as next year’s first round pick to the Rams for the 26th overall pick. Yeah. What? They didn’t return, you morons. They got Xavier Watts back, too. Why did Why is it It’s It’s willful ignorance at this part. I mean, they just Is this what gaslighting is? If you keep lying enough about it, it’ll become fact. Is that what gaslighting is? Because I’m still not 100% sure about that. If we keep saying by misrepresenting the facts,
it’ll become fact. Is that gaslighting? Because it that’s there’s this national effort. It’s like you guys can’t be this bad at your job. It’s either you’re bad at your job or it’s willful ignorance at this time and it’s it’s intellectual dishonesty. Take your pick. Either way, it’s wrong. Yeah. I think I mean we’ve talked about it a lot on here obviously. Uh, but I think the it’s a misrepresentation uh as you’re getting at, but it’s not the overpay necessarily, but it’s amplified risk by a lot because you traded up for the 26th pick and the odds of this the Falcons being the 26th pick in return for the Rams, considering also last year was a down year in the draft where next year should be a little bit better in the first round is there’s risk. I wouldn’t say it’s a massive overpay. And then the difference between a comp pick in the third round to a middle second round. I mean that’s there’s there’s obviously value difference there, but really it comes down to the first round, but you got a first round in return. It’s just you don’t know where on the slide scale that first round pick lands. So I don’t know I wouldn’t call it a massive overpay, but I would call it a large gamble, right? The gamble still there.
Yeah. And the gamble’s still there. And you know when he when he finishes this uh Atlanta has struggled to find a decent pass rush for years. for years in the last 10 years their last decade overall.
Yeah. Which we’ve seen we know uh it felt the need to make a drastic move to solve the problem. Um then he you know he goes on and and talks a little bit about you know if if and what to to what you’re saying if the Falcons lose and worst case scenario comes up they’re going to be really upset watching the Rams take that high pick. fine, but you can’t they can’t go into the season betting on losing. You know, this is this is a pivotal year for the Atlanta Falcons. We can’t hedge our bets again. They tried to hedge their bets at quarterback last year and it failed. You’re you’ve got a $40 million backup on your on your cap right now. You can’t you can’t always hedge. You got to you got to get off the pot, you know, poop or get off the pot. Make a decision. And in this decision, they hedged last time. They didn’t hedge. They want to win. And they’re like, “This guy can help us win this year and it didn’t cost us this much.” They also got Xavier Watts who’s being pencileled in as a starter and is considered one of the best value picks in this draft. Okay, so I I spent a first and let’s see, a first and a second, and I get back James Pierce and Xavier Watts. Okay. Well, what if what if what if James Pierce wins rookie of the year? Are you going to tell me now that it was a huge overpay?
It’ll be like last year with Michael Penn, you know, it’s will be the the hindsight retrospect. Oh man, look, they got the best pass rusher in the draft class and all they had to give up was a future first and a third, you know. So, obviously more information will change it. Um, but I do come down to I think it is misrepresented. the overpay is wrong, but you and because you don’t know where that first round pick lands, but it is a gamble. I think there’s no doubt about that. The big gamble the Falcons made trading a future first for pick 26 overall
is that and Edward Brown, I see you. We’re going to get to you in just one second. And and the thing is, you know, forget the the
forget the players that are picked and whether or not they have panned out. The biggest criticism I have for Terry Fontau’s draft strategy right now is he does tend to overpay. He He does He tends to overpay. He’s traded up now four out of five. Four out of five. I think it was three out of four going in. So he’s 75%. He traded up twice in this one. So he has traded up in his trades five out of six times on trades. Traded up. Okay. Well, that means you’re losing other players because you’ve given up a pick in other one. That’s basically six picks that you’ve given up in five drafts. That’s six players that could have been on your team that may or may not have panned out. So, it is a it is a risk because the idea is like, well, we would have taken this guy at 15 if Jaylen Walker wasn’t there. We we like him at 15, so we’re okay taking this pick at at 26 and using a a future first because we think we’ll be better than 15 anyway. All right. Well, you don’t always have to trade up, man. That’s that’s where he he is on the whole aggressive and falling in love with the players that he really likes. And that can sometimes it’s better to just be patient and let the board come to you and even sometimes trade down and hey, you know what? I got another fourth out of this and there’s a player in the fourth round I love too. Uh, so that was that was for me the the that’s where he always gamles by betting more by betting more instead of kind of heading heading his bets on that. Um, the Joe says there’s no risk. James Pearson’s going to be a dog. There’s always a risk, dude. There’s always there’s always a risk. And Matt Sus says, “Who cares about a seventh?” I’m like, I don’t even mention the seventh, honestly. I I don’t That’s a throwin for me. It was First, it was number 26 and like number 99. Actually, it was like 102 because he traded up a fifth to move up from 102 to 99, a fifth round pick to get Xavier Watts, but it was it was number 26 and number 99 for number where were they drafting? 40. 40 and a future first. And by whoever Jimmy Johnson scale or whatever, that ended up being the equivalent of a late round third to get an extra year to get another edge rusher. So what I mean that’s that is not a huge overpay overly, you know, and the risk is how can it all go bad? Well, what’s the worst case scenario? You know, overall the Falcons fall flat on their face and you’re watching the Rams pick top five next year. That’s going to be bad.
That don’t say that. That would be that would be very bad. Um, man, look, the one thing you have going for you in that case, though, maybe you don’t, um, if you pick top five, but you have your quarterback already, so like you can live a little bit with that top five pick going elsewhere,
right?
Uh, and again, come back to the Broncos, they gave up two top 10 picks, uh, and they turn it around pretty quickly. So, it’s not a death sentence forever for the Falcons, but that would be very, very unfortunate if it ends up being a top five pick, especially because next year looks pretty good in terms of the uh offensive and defensive line uh positions for uh the NFL draft and quarterbacks. I mean, it could be the you get the third pick next year and you turn that into three firsts, you know, kind of a uh Miami Dolphins uh 49ers trade.
Let me see. Edward Brown coming in the $5 super chat. Thank you for going green on us this morning and breaking the ice on this. Edward helps keep the lights on, keeps his forehead nice and shiny this time of year. He says, “Best case scenario with all the new additions, the Falcons defense’s finish is top 10. Worst case scenario, the Falcons defense does what the Falcons defense does.” So, in the last decade, not counting 2025, how many first round picks have the Falcons used on defense? I AJ Terrell
and there was one more in 2017. I’m
blanking off the top of my head right now.
T McKenley, but just two. Answers two.
Yep.
Um so since 2016, which covered nine drafts, the Falcons had used a first round pick on two defenders. That’s it.
Two. It’s an imbalanced team. And before that, they really hadn’t. And the only defensive tackle they’ve taken in last like the last 25 years in the first round was Prey Jerry who was undersized a little bit older and injured. Good god. Uh you know but they took AJ Terrell. Everything else has been you know been offense offense offense. So this was this was a long time coming. This draft was a long time coming and hopefully you’ve got your bookends for the next decade. You know, I can I can at least if it wouldn’t it be a great problem say, “Oh, no. Which when these guys are both going to hit free agency at the at the same time, which one are you going to pay? Can will you be able to afford to pay both of them?” Damn.
Wouldn’t that be a fun problem to have, Nick? Yes, it would. And uh sorry about the sneeze. I think I hit the mute in time. Um but no, that would be
You might be coming through you. I heard it. So, you might probably going through the wrong thing there.
See, your your your desktop microphone is good enough. I don’t even notice it when I’m listening because I don’t have you that loud anyway.
Well, now I’m coming through the Yeti. So, it’s the camera. I got a good camera. Uh, Razer, um, that’s where it was coming through. But, u,
well, wouldn’t it be, you know, wouldn’t wouldn’t it be a great problem to have to worry about how are we going to pay both of these guys? We got two first round draft picks. That means they both hit and if you have two edge rushers hit for the next five years, you’re gonna be a pretty good defense.
Yeah, absolutely. Uh, that’s called good problems down the line. and you are a few years away from having to worry about that. So, yeah, the new additions give the defense top 10. I I still think you’re probably a little bit over your skis with top 10 with the new additions because they weren’t necessarily free agent editions. Like even your first round picks tend to be unless they’re like lottery picks like top three, top five. You’re talking halfway through year two, year three is when you really start to get an idea who they are. Uh so, can they finish top 10 this season? Sure. Anything anything is possible. Uh but even if they finish let’s say 16th this season it won’t it won’t feel great uh but it’ll be like okay that’s positive direction we haven’t had something I mean considering what we have seen out here
uh that would be huge uh for them so top 10 is I guess you can say that’s best case because on both yeah these are dreams if if this becomes an average defense average defense in the metrics that matter And you can say points and and yards are the metrics that matter, but you can finagle those a little bit. I can artificially hold those down by how I play the game. We watched Arthur Smith do it for years
by limiting possessions, running the ball, burning the clock, running the clock down. Basically, you’re running a, you know, you’re running a clock drill the whole time in reverse, trying to kill it and just trying to keep the game close and keep possessions down.
It’s called Iowa Hawkeye football. I appreciate it. Suffer ball. That’s what we had under Arthur Smith. And God bless him, the first two years he had to. That was the only way they were going to even be able to stay in games because they couldn’t get into a shootout with anybody. They didn’t have the offense or the defense. Um, so if this team is defense is average in the metrics that matter, this is a playoff team. I wholeheartedly believe that. And again, will this defense be improved over 2024? Yes. I have no doubt in my mind that this defense improves over 2024 because the 2024 defense was the worst coached defense I’ve seen at the college or NFL level. Worst coached. And uh it wasn’t the worst defense I’ve ever seen because there were still players. There’s still pretty good players out there, but it was the worst coach defense I’ve ever seen.
Yeah. Every time they came out it was uh Yaky Sachs was playing. I could hear him slipping and sliding around. So it was uh Yeah. Worst case scenario, they’re you can’t get out. You can’t stop the run and you can’t fully unleash the pass rushers and outside of AJ Terrell, your quarterbacks are not getting the job done and any quarterback with a average drop back pass game uh gets to third and short and is able to take advantage of the matchups. Uh so that’s that’s what we’ll see. I mean, this Falcons defense, even though they did use a lot of draft picks on the defensive side of the ball, still ample questions uh and roster pitfalls on the defensive side of the ball, but you never know. Um you could roll multiple yatsis in a row row and you’re all of a sudden like uh Edward says here, top 10 defense.
Yeah. And I’m I’m just looking for again improvement and get into into and when I say the metrics that matter, I start talking about third down efficiency. You know, can you get the team off the field where the Falcons were bottom three last year was like yards per drive, points per drive. They were dead last in uh in completion percentage against at 70%. Opposing opposing quarterbacks completed 70%. You got to play the Panthers twice and the Saints twice, 70%. That’s some That’s unbelievable. Um, so again, the Falcons defense was the Falcons offense was either getting the ball back off a kickoff because the other team scored or getting the ball back in their own red zone inside their own 20 because the other team had the most yards per drive of anybody or bottom three. And all of those metrics, those have to improve. And if they improve, then the the the total yards and points could change. You know, I we have more possessions, so we gave up more yards and more points, but we gave up less points per drive. And oh, by the way, that also meant our offense had the ball more. If our offense has the ball more and the kicking game gets out of the freaking tank, that’s a good thing. Regardless of, well, they finished. They weren’t the worst. They were like 24th in points and yards. Yeah. No, we watched them. What’s the eye test tell y’all? What What did watching this team tell y’all in your gut watching them? Did you feel like you were going to get a stop when you needed one or that you could get the team off the field? No. No. And there’s deeper metrics that help explain what you were watching
inflated. And I’m glad you used the uh per drive statistics. I mean, this really I mean pace of play is such indicative. I’ve been having a not a bout necessarily, but Broncos fans like the Broncos finished top 10 in points, total points last year. It’s like, well, when you average the best starting field position because you have the number one defense in a lot of metrics last season, the special teams was great. You’re going to be set up pretty well, but you’re trying to figure out how to equalize uh the situations as much as possible. So, your per drive basis, your per play basis, I mean, college analytics fans have been on it for a decade now. uh they they’re pretty good at figuring that stuff out. But your EPA, your DVOA, and those those will always probably be the first two I go to. Like when I’m trying to do a quick scout of an opposing team, I’m not going to look at the points or the yardage given up total. I’m going to look at EPA and uh EPA per play, not total EPA, and uh DVOA. So, those are those are the first two I think those not gold standard because it’s football. It’s weird. It’s the perfect game because it’s there is a level of ambiguity. Uh, but those are where I’d go.
Um, talking about worst case scenarios for uh for the Falcons and and this is kind of we’ve said this before and in fact I I just don’t think it happens. Uh, let me see. This was this was a long article. I’ll I’ll I’ll link it in here too. So, uh, get a chance to give them a little bit more. The nightmare scenario. If we see the Falcons voluntarily start Kirk Cousins this season, we’ll know things have gone ary for Atlanta. That means without an injury, if Kurt Cousins is in the game, Michael Pennix has fallen flat on his face and they’re trying to salvage what’s left of the season. I think that doesn’t I don’t see really any way that happens, you know? I I just I don’t I mean, that’s the worst case because that means the season’s already gone and that would already be the worst case. So, I mean, he could be right on this, but Pennix is the future of this team. he will get a long long long long leash and if they are not successful with Michael Pennix and say the first 12 games of the season and they’re out of it, they’re not going to be able to save Rahee Morris might not be able to save his job even with four wins to close the year by throwing in Kurt Cousins and and and all that stuff. Then you’re going into next season like, “Oh, do we keep Kurt Cousins? What do we do? He’s got a $57 million cap hit. What do we do now?” I I just don’t see that happening. you say that, but Arthur Blank has been the king of they started slow, but oh, they rallied around the coach. Dan Quinn, let’s do it another time. So, we’ll see. Uh, obviously Quinn’s been good now, uh, as well. But, uh, yeah, it’s never say never, but it’s Fonto as well, right? Like, this is he’s had ample drafts now. This is his
This is five years. This is five years, and people want to, you know, there’s there were there are people Nobody We’re not going to have 100% agreement on just about anything. we might be able to find something. Uh but but for the most part when discussing your own team,
there’s going to be different opinions. So there are Terry Fonto that have a lot of supporters, I don’t even want to necessarily say apologists, but the people that only see good in Terry Fonto and and that’s we’ll we’ll be critical and we need to be critical. We’ll say we’re wrong about something with when we’re wrong, but nobody hits 100%.
No. and the the everything is awesome crowd they their team cannot make a mistake and I just I can’t deal with that level of bias for me five years is enough well he’s had this problem this problem this problem doesn’t matter you’re in charge as a general manager you are in charge the only other person higher than you is the owner and he can’t fire himself five years without a winning season is enough you you’d be gone and and I I I wholeheartedly believe that and I think Terry Fontno would probably be able to another job fairly quickly, you know. Oh, it’s Atlanta. Yeah, we know. Oh, he had he had a lot of problems down in Atlanta. I know. And some of them are self-induced, but most, you know, he came into a tough situation. But I think it’s another losing season and they’re they’re cleaning house. And uh it will be another general manager, another coach starting 2026. And you don’t have a first round pick, but you might have your bookend edge rushers and your young quarterback. Yeah, it’s it’s tough, too, because not having your first round pick next year is a harder sell uh for a new general manager to get their fingerprints on a team. Now, granted, it’s still only one of 32, so
lot though.
And yeah, that’s that’s true.
A lot more money.
It’s just it’s a harder It’s almost like you have to give them a plus one year uh when you do something like that without that pick. But we’re getting way ahead of ourselves, right? We got to see what this year looks like. We have No, we have worst case.
Yeah. You know, we were hitting on worst case on that.
I mean, worst case, you’re talking about everything being bad. Worst case is that Michael Panix comes out and looks bad and then gets injured. Uh, so you’re sitting there with a small sample size. I’ll knock on wood, too, because this is I mean, we’re worst case, it’s even hurts to say. We’re talking a lot about the defense. Defense can turn around quickly. I mean, it really can. You can get average defense throwing some money at veterans and hitting on a couple draft picks. Lickety split. I know it’s hard to say that from a Falcons perspective considering what the defense has been for many years, but worst case, I mean, we we’re all excited about Penn last season, but the sample size was small and he from the the little things of quarterbacking, the quick game, the accuracy, still question marks for me personally. Uh some of the touch throw stuff. So, worst case is he comes in, he looks erratic, a little bit turnoverrone, and then uhoh, we have another injury for him. and you don’t know where you’re at. The season kind of gets off the rails uh from that point and you’re still with him, but you’re still not sure what he is as an answer. Yeah, Maurice says, “Wow, way to jinx the team.” I knocked on wood, Maurice. And the title is worst case scenario. So, I I did.
We don’t have that kind of power.
No, I mean, no, definitely not. I’m not that much of a narcissist to think that, but Problem is I am.
Oh, I do think I am that big of a jinx personally. Yes, I do believe that that I’ I’ve said before the uh you know the the curse of the bambino is much more wellknown but do not underestimate the skinnity curse for god’s sakes I even tank Chelsea for god’s sakes you know one of the top like the only real macro program I I have rooted for in my life everybody else has been pretty much underdogs and they still went in the pooper Keith Rogan says PP Walker have the opportunity to be the best pass rush duo for Falcons since now when I wax poetically about the 1998 Atlanta Falcons and the Super Bowl that we missed out on that should have been one of the best games ever with 15-1 Denver Broncos against the 14-2 Atlanta Falcons who had just beaten the 15-1 Minnesota Vikings. The Falcons were good on defense because their front four was so good there. They could rush four and they could drop seven and then they had, you know, Jesse Tugle out there as well. And I think, let me see, I have it sorted by sacks, but I mean, uh, Keith Brooking had to be on that team because he was drafted 90 after the 97 season. So, uh, but for sacks from the front four, you had Lester Rshambo got 10, Chuck Smith got eight and a half, Shane Dronette got six and a half, and Travis Hall got four and a half. So, that’s Everybody has a half sack. So that’s 11. That’s 19 and a half. That’s 30 sacks from your starting front four. Bro, that doesn’t happen anymore, does it? I mean, you might get somebody that gets 16. Errol Normal had 16 and everybody else chipped in three, but that was that defense was so good because their front four was was that good. And you know, I’m I’m still I will hold it against Eugene Robinson for robbing us of what should have been an epic Super Bowl for, as Ron says, for I I will hold it against him for as long as I live. We’re at 27 years and I’m still pissed. This Irishman carries a grudge. That and again, I’m not saying you would have beaten the s the defending Super Bowl champions, Denver Broncos. Denver Broncos were a phenomenal team, but it should have been a good game. It it should have been a good game and it wasn’t. Um and you know, Dan Reeves had a part of that. I know the Falcons, they they went down to Miami and acted. They got fully into we’re just happy to be here mode, but that was a good that was that was a good good team. And they falconed last last week in here. They falconed it up. Um Chuck Smith and Lester was a is a good one from Terry. And then uh I wanted to look up because I couldn’t remember when I mean because obviously it’s John Abraham and who because he’s the best pass rusher that in the modern era I think you know I don’t go back to uh you know home you know Claude I don’t I never watched him play in the 70s but the modern era John Abraham is the most consistent best pass rusher I think the Falcons have had. Who did he play with? Carney was damned good. Damn good. But I for some reason I thought he was a little earlier than than Abraham and they didn’t really cross over as much but I could have been wrong on that. Yeah. I you’re digging into the Falcons history which is a little bit uh beyond me. I can talk a little bit, you know, the last 5 10 years when I kind of had like a football awakening um 15 years ago. But yeah, Patrick Kernney, I definitely know those two names, Patrick Kernney and Jonathan Abraham. I had some dreams for uh Adrien Claybornne for you guys. play I played beer pong against him Scott um in when I was a freshman in Iowa he had the most sacks he had was 16 and a half in 2008 for the Falcons and the next was Chanty Davis with four
you know so I have to kind of go through all this stuff in 2007 Atlanta if I go um sacks and I have this in a spreadsheet actually for like total sacks John Abraham 10 the next one was Michael Bolley who the hell remembers Michael Bolley I don’t um he had three so it was 10 and three. So I think I don’t think Kierney and and John Abraham really crossed over that much. Um 32 years old he was a Pro Bowler with 13 sacks and you go um who was with with Abraham then? If I click on I sort the next one was Jonathan Babino with four. So 2014 he didn’t play. That was Arizona. Atlanta was his last year. He had 10. So I’m going to click on 2012 because that was for before Beasley. He didn’t make it to that 16 team. And I click on that sack. And the next one is Croy Beerman at four.
So I would say I don’t think Karen and Abraham crossed over. I cheated here, Scott. Um you guys are talking on here, but uh I asked chat GPT because like why not? Yeah. Um, they do have Jonathan Abraham. Um, so I asked for the best Falcons duo in the last 20 years and they do have Abraham, but they also have Jonathan Babino uh in there as part of that group.
Jonathan Babino was a big defensive tackle. And by the way, he’s got a son, Johnny Babino, who is a pretty dang good baseball player. Plays uh for Dingers out of Buford. And he should be he should be a freshman now. He might be he might have been playing a year up, so he might be an eighth grader, but he’s he should be a freshman. Watch out for Watch out for Old Johnny Babino. Good baseball player. Well, I do want to give Babino a shout out because University go to Iowa. He was good. He was really good.
Yep. Yep.
Yep. He was really good. And Travis Hall was a monster, too. Another one of those guys. I think he was like from Alaska.
But Travis Hall was a beast also.
You know, a couple of those guys. But it’s been 20 years since they put any real effort into trying to build up the defense. And you wonder why don’t they have a defense? Well, look at the drafts, man. You know, they haven’t put any effort into the defenses. They’ve hired defensive coaches and then said, “Well, we’ll just let them coach their way up. We’ll we’ll draft offenses.” And, you know, doesn’t always work like that. So, again, I think this this last draft was music to the ears of Atlanta Falcons fans. And to say that to say that was an overpay, it might be, but it’s not yet. It might be if the Falcons fall flat on their faces and ends up being a top five pick, then it was an overpay. And if James Pierce Jr. ends up being just a 26 level overall pick, then it was an overpay on paper. It’s not going to be an overpay if no matter what happens, if James Pierce Jr. hits, cuz that’s worth a top five pick. And on paper, it’s not an overpay, period. Because everybody just wants to X out the fact that they got Xavier Watts, who’s probably gonna start for this team and should be a pretty good football player in the defensive backfield, has some really good credentials. Everybody just seems to I can see the my I’m getting fired up enough. I can see the vein popping out my forehead about this these people just constantly glossing over the trade to fit their narrative. And it just it pisses me off. It’s dishonest. Yeah. Again, I think it’s just a misrepresentation of uh the reality of what it is. It’s a gamble. Uh overpay, you won’t know that until in hindsight. Uh just like with Michael Penn, was it overpay to take a your backup quarterback 88 overall? Well, no, now that we know what we know. So, only time will tell on that one. But I I do agree. It’s just it’s misleading uh in putting it the the most positive light. But, uh, yeah, best case, we’re talking a lot of defense on this team, but what’s the best case for this Falcons team? Behan Robinson makes a play for offensive player of the year, uh, right there with uh, Saquon Barkley, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson. He because right now I feels like he’s like a tier under the face of the league offensive weapons, right? Like he’s, don’t get me wrong, he’s phenomenal, but like he’s not the cover of Magic.
Derrick Henry, Squan.
Yeah. And then the
Christian McCaffrey, Nick. Yeah. I McAffrey is a weird one because the injuries, but like right now it’s like Saquon
Henry also, but I’m talking even like with the wide receivers uh with Jefferson, Chase,
uh Nico Collins isn’t probably there yet, but he’s he’s probably the most underrated.
Yeah, he doesn’t have the Q rating that those others guys do because that’s what you’re talking about. I mean, he finished fourth in
fourth in touchdowns and fourth in yards from scrimmage. I mean, the production was there, but it’s what happens when you play for a team that is mired in losing seasons. and we’ve seen it for years and years and years. Jake Matthews is probably underrated. I know it’s taken two years too long for Chris Lindstöm to get the recognition he deserves. Um, and Robinson, the number eight, he came in with, you know, a little bit more flash being a number eight pick, you know, a high pick like that. And then he’s been really good, but he’s still not
the cover boy on Madden, you know, and he’s got that type of ability.
So, best case about best case there. And then
best case. Yeah,
Dejian Robinson has an MVP type season. Michael Pennix plays average or above level quarterback play, which you know, 15 and up. Look at some of the names. You’re like, “Oh, he’s better than that. He’s top five.” Look at some of the names that are in there with top 15 there. It’s you’re in good company. Yeah.
And the defense works its way up to average because you had number six in total yards despite the limited possessions last year. The Falcons could move the ball. They did they weren’t as efficient in the red zone and their kicking game was off the boil last year and the the defense was terrible at getting the ball back into this high-powered offense. So best case, the defense becomes an average unit. Best case, top 10, of course. Realistic, I did put that in the description, Nick. Realistic, this becomes an average unit with an average amount of sacks, which would be almost one more per game. Get them up in the 40s and in the mid-40s. Michael Pennix is good. Bjon, Drake are great. Everybody says healthy. And we see something from Kyle Pittz again. Kyle,
who has more to gain this year than Kyle Pittz? Nobody. And he’ll he should have more room to operate.
And if he has all he’s did in a contract, then franchise tag him. Make him do it again. Give him $30 million for two years of top five uh tight end play. Great. And if he does have a monster season and you franchise tag him and him and his agent aren’t happy with it, well, at least you’ve got a trade prospect with a 25-year-old tight end coming off a monster season instead of three consecutive disappointing ones. All good. Those are all good things. Yep. And the last one would be Drake London becoming a top three in top five in yards. He was like seventh or eighth last season. Top three in target,
fourth in yards last year.
Let me pull it up. I have it on PFF right here. yards. I have him at seventh behind.
I remember seeing there was something he was pretty high. Not cutting tight like tight like just wide receivers. Was there a tight end in there or something?
Nope. You got Jamar Chase number one, Justin who had the triple crown last year.
Yeah.
Uh Jeff Justin Jefferson two, Aman Ross St. Brown three, Lad Mani four, Terry McLaren five, Brian Thomas six, and then you have Drake London with 1,271. So
yeah, so he can he’s there and again but we we we we I caution everybody and Chris Walker says, “Wouldn’t the best case scenario be Pennix performs between Mahomes and Jaden Daniels?”
Uh yeah, best case I mean this isn’t your typical rookie, right? This isn’t your typical first year starter. He’s I think he’s ahead of Jordan Love simply for the fact that he’s got a little bit more arm talent than Jordan Love and the weapons around him are better. the the what Green Bay had done is kind of the opposite of what the Falcons have done. They’re like, “We’ve got Aaron Rogers, so we’re going to spend all of our resources on defense and just let Aaron Rogers take care of it.” I think the surrounding pieces for Michael Penn are better than what Jordan Love had as a first year starter. Yeah, I think honestly what the one that I keep coming back to is it would be uh CJ Strad’s rookie season. kind of like we have. I mean, this is kind of like it’s gonna be Penn’s rookie season. Granted, he’s not as young. Uh, but CJ Strad was very good in that 2023 season. First full year as a starter. We’ll see the same thing with PennX this season. And comparing him to Daniels, it’s just so hard uh to compare him to Daniels because Daniels is such a different style of player to Penn. So, like a drop back passer who has full command of the offense and doing the the hard things in the true drop back pass game. Maybe we see him come out somewhere similar to uh uh where we had CJ Stout his rookie season, not last season where it kind of fell off the rails and the offensive line was so bad it was pretty hard to evaluate him. So that’s kind of where I’m looking there uh with him. And where did uh Strad finished 12th in EPA per play as rookie season? That’s
23 touchdown passes against five interceptions. So he was really good of taking care of the ball and had 4,100 yards. Um, those are all within range. I I I will be a little disappointed if Michael Pennix only has 23 touchdown passes.
And maybe it’s rushing, though. I mean, it’s just what is the offense? How do they utilize it? I’m looking for the efficiency uh in the yard. So,
we’ll see. Um, but it’s if it’s that and the offense is stalling in the red zone, we’ll have problems. Uh, but how
you got to think from a from a if you can get five touchdown passes to the running backs. If I can get three to five, there’s 10 to pits maybe this year. I think he was close to that last year. Eight to 10 for Drake London and then 8 to 10 combined between Ray Ray and Darnell Mooney. There’s 30 plus right there. I I don’t think those are unrealistic um as far as this. Now, the hot take is the 50 plus sacks because the other part of that rookie season for CJ Strad was Will Anderson coming in and playing on a Pro Bowl level as a rookie. Um they, you know, so the the defense was winning some games for them while CJ Strad was taking care of the ball and and being very efficient in his playmaking. So, I think the Falcons offense is still ahead of Houston’s, but the defense Houston’s defense was was Yeah, I wouldn’t mind having a Houston level defense for uh for for this for this Falcons team coming in.
Most underrated defense in football. I think they got as good a chance as anybody to be number one in the NFL this season. Granted, they’ve invested. They have two top three picks uh on at the key positions there. So, who they get a I know I mean I know Will Anderson and then who who else do they have?
Derk Stingley.
Who?
They you talking about pass rush or top three pick? because they have Stingley and they also have Danielle Hunter.
Stingley was who else for I couldn’t remember because I know they’ve got they also have didn’t they have a monster defensive tackle from Mississippi State or something.
They have a really good defensive line.
I can’t remember off the top of my head. Um I would know my Mississippi State ones. I love them. Um but
yeah know like like where did Hardrove Harrove didn’t play with them. Um Houston Texans 03. I’m we’re talking too much Texans. I know y’all. Apologies. Uh roster room players. Now I’ve gotten myself lost in here. I can’t find it. I’ve got my lost. It reference isn’t always as linear as you would expect it to be when you’re
no
when you’re clicking there. So again, best case for me and if we want to talk about just total records. I mean, let’s go again, I put realistic in here. 12 and five isn’t completely out of the question for this team if the defense steps up. Cuz for me, when I’m doing my equation of offense time defense time special teams equals wins, the big X, the big X factor in here is defense. That has the most variable on here. I expect the Falcons offense to be good again. They were good last year. If they even improve a little bit, they’re a top 10 offense. They were a bottom three defense. So, there’s a lot of room for growth there. How far up that chart they go this year will be the difference for me between I still think the floor on this is at worst the worst case scenario is seven and 10. How good this defense is goes from seven wins to 12 wins for me. Yeah. Yeah. I think you’re right on the money. I I still think the defense can be poor enough and we still have enough questions from Penn that I probably would spread the range a little bit. uh we especially defensive coordinator with this style of defense and the pieces he has better than last season but still could be a question. So I’ll probably do six wins uh as my floor uh with 13 as the ceiling. I mean I’m just a little wider on the air bar uh there’s a variance there’s a big variance in there. I just think, you know, they they finished eight and nine last year, even with the atrocious quarterback play we saw in the middle of the season
and a defense that made you want to stick forks in your eyes. And again, it was it was just and Jimmy says, “Man, we better not have another seven and 10.” No, if I’m if I I I like the I mean, the overunder on this is six and a half for the Falcons right now. Six and a half or seven and a half. I I don’t I just have a hard time thinking they won’t reach that this year. This is a good and if you’re if you’re watching our site when we start going through, you know, projections and breakaway, you know, uh breakout players and stuff like this, there’s a lot of Falcons on there. Devon Diablo, Michael Penn, obviously, uh when they start coming out with fantasy rankings, Bjon is going to be top three. So, for for something like that. So, there’s a lot of good talk and people are afraid to get on board because it’s the Falcons. They’ve been bored. So, you know, it’s like people talk about, oh, we don’t get enough respect, blah, blah, blah. Everybody hates us. Everybody hates everybody when it comes to it’s one of the universal truths. The refs are out to get us and the media hates us. Every fan base in the world says that.
Yeah. The Falcons have failed to match have failed to beat their overunder win projection from from Vegas in six of the last seven years. So they’ve actually overestimated the Falcons. Oh, everybody hates us. They’ve overestimated, let that sink in. Six of the last seven years, they’ve overestimated what the Falcons were going to do this year. I think it’s I think it’s too low. I I think eight wins minimum. and and we’ve got questions. If it’s eight and nine and you miss the playoffs again, then we’ve got questions. 10 and seven is realistic for me. I think that’s a realistic and we will see. Uh so 10 10 and seven would be my off-the cuff projection right now. July 2nd. Yeah. Yep. I’m I’m with you completely. Uh again, bottom line, uh what is Michael Pennock? Uh that change that’s And we we have to run this one on the bottom too, Nick.
As well. Yeah,
stay healthy.
Yep.
Stay healthy.
Yep. So, we will see what happens uh this season. Yeah. It’s a good article from uh Frank Schwab, right? Not Charles. Charles Schwab’s the investment one. I think it’s
Frank’s the investment. Yep.
Yeah. Yeah. Uh he’s done Yahoo for a number of years. So, I appreciate him putting out content in July. Uh I appreciate us putting out content in July, too. If you guys want us appreciate us putting out content for you guys in July, make sure you click the thumbs up uh heart react as well. We got way more viewers uh than Reacts right now. So, that can help us a lot. Not everybody can be as uh supportive as Edward Brown, but uh it’s completely free to click the thumbs up and uh share, like, subscribe, all that good stuff.
Yeah. And I like uh you know, Terry says, “Putting Jaylen Walker and Pierce on that fast track in the dome. Uh their game feed will show up on Sundays.” I um going back, you know, to my Auburn days, there was it was 1995 and there were two freshman on the field and you could I didn’t have to see a number. I could tell who they were just based on who was getting to the play faster. It was uh it was Tequo Spikes was uh he was he played as a freshman in 1995. Another one I kind of forgotten his name was I think it was Martavius Houston. He was a safety. He wore number 25. And if you saw like an oh my god, like a a bullet going across. It was either 25 or 5’5. What Terry’s saying, I kind of agree with. We should see a different level of speed. Not just from him, though. Not just from these two guys. How about Divine Diablo? Let’s get Troy Anderson out there, too.
We We should We should see more closing speed. And then on top of that, these guys shouldn’t be backpedaling the whole time. This should be a more attack-minded defense. We should see more guys fly into the football rather than just, okay, try and keep them in front of you and we’re going to play Matador here and and just jump on their backs as they get seven yards. God, it was frustrating.
Yeah. Yeah. And what what do you remember what our big conversation was following the uh the draft? It’s like, can you talk about all the fun stuff and the speed and the pursuit stuff? Can you do enough boring stuff on first and second down where that starts to matter? That is probably the crux of the defense this season along with secondary depth uh guys rising there. But I do worry they’re smaller. Uh
I think they’ll have to make up for it with numbers and you’ve got a little bit more speed behind them that I can afford to put another guy on the line of scrimmage that if if especially if Anderson’s out there, but with the with Diablo and Ellis, I can run two linebackers and put five guys on the line of scrimmage
and and be better against the run and feel okay in my first third of the field. as far as where I’ve got coverage.
That just hasn’t been MMO uh as a defensive coordinator, but you should good coordinator.
Not the same defensive lineman you had in New York either.
Yeah. Oh, not I mean, talk about investment on offensive line or uh defense if they had like three or four first rounders in that defense.
And that’s and hopefully that’s coming again.
Yeah.
Offensive tackle. We go I feel like we could we’re like it’s about time to get out of here and now we’re starting to change the subject and I could go on for another 20 minutes on this. as far as team building goes, like you feel like the offense is still pretty set, but I kind of want another wide receiver coming up soon. Um, you know, another offensive weapon on there and then offensive tackle is going to be a priority in the next couple years. It might be one in 2026 as far as where do I spend my premium resources and if Terry if we win here in Atlanta and Terry, he’ll probably find a way to trade back up into the first round anyway. Um and and it might be an offensive tackle, you know, so don’t be surprised on that one. Uh sip thoughts, good to see says he’s tardy to the party. Um Corey Carter says to Spikes, no neck. I I was mad. That’s who I wanted. Yes, I was biased, but I wanted they took Brooking who was a fantastic Atlanta Falcon. I wanted Spikes. I I really wanted Spikes. And then I was mad just like when they kept saying that Kyle Pittz was a was a win now move. I was like, “No, it wasn’t.” of when they started saying, “Oh, that really should help, you know, get the locals excited by taking Keith Brooking.” Like, there’s 14 Georgia Tech fans. There’s three times the Auburn football fans in Metro Atlanta than there are Georgia fans. You want to get the locals excited, draft the Auburn Tiger. U like I said, this Irishman holds a grudge. That was 30 years ago. So, uh but I thought it was him. Was Tomlin his coach at the time? Was he talking about him? Because the quote I I remember about Tequo Spikes was I thought it was Washington County though. There was somebody at Washington County. I thought it was Spikes. They said letting him play high school football was child abuse. Um a lot of fun. Little throwback time. Enjoyed it with everybody. Nick, what do you got for us as we get out of here? Fun conversation. Uh we will see. I might not be here next Monday. I My wife is finally starting to get healthier. Uh so that’s good. I heard some screaming upstairs. I I slept I’ve been sleeping. We only Okay, how do I back it up? Seattle is typic has been historically mild enough that you haven’t had ACs in the house, but with trends changing, uh it’s been hotter and hotter here in the summer. So, uh baby sleeping in the guest room where the only air or our our room with Natalie where the only air conditioner is. And I slept in the guest room and unfortunately the kids still woke up uh when I woke up. So, the goal was when my alarm goes off. The dog jumping off the bed, uh would keep the baby asleep. Nope, he still woke up about 5:30, 5:15 when I was uh coming down here. So, hopefully things are okay up there. But yeah, things are good here. And
gosh, I got to have to pack up this house through August. So, wish me luck and coming back to not having air conditioner. Uh
sucks. We need to We need to change up your background and make it a little more neutral for for the new house.
The next place.
Yeah. Yeah. I I need a green screen screen is what I need.
Yeah. Well, I just painted I just painted my back wall green. It looks like crap. I’m like, “Yeah, it’s my office. I’ll do what I want with it.” I I I probably need a green screen. That would be a big one. Um but yeah, it helps.
So, next week, what’s today? What’s today? Today’s Wednesday, right? The second. Yep.
Okay. I’ll be here Monday. We will not be here Wednesday. So, next week we will not be here Wednesday. I’ve got to I’ve got to find a way to get to Jacksonville and Fort Myers, Florida. baseball tournament in Fort Myers, Florida. Starts on Thursday and my car is still in Jacksonville because I got some bad gas. Insert joke here and uh it it misfired my whole engine and it’s still in Jacksonville getting worked on right now and I got to find a way to go get it in Jacksonville on Wednesday or coming back. But I’ll be on my way down to Fort Myers on Wednesday regardless. So, we won’t be here on Wednesday, but I will be here on Monday for sure as we uh take one more step closer to training camp. I can’t wait to see these new guys and I’m hoping there’s enough new faces for competition. I’m hoping Raheem lets them compete. Lets them compete and hasn’t already made up his mind and we get to see these guys go to work in training camp in the preseason. Some of these young guys and new guys fighting for jobs. Um I don’t want to see players 55 through 95 are the only ones we see in the preseason. That that doesn’t interest me. So I’m hoping we get to see more of this. But we’re going to get out of here. Thanks so much for being here everybody. Thank you to Edward for the super chat.
Yeah.
And and thanks to everybody else that was here. Make sure you hit that like button on the way out. We’re a little light today, but that’s okay. It’s July. So, uh, everything you can do, just a little like or a share or any of those helps us a lot. But we’re going to get out of here. Y’all have a great rest of your week. Thanks for being here, everybody. Peace.

This week, Yahoo! Sports discussed what they think are the best and worst case scenarios for the Atlanta Falcons. Nick and Scott break it down and go through their own realistic best and worst case in 2025.

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