A Deep Dive Into The 2025 Atlanta Falcons
Does this shirt come in red? [Music] What is going on everyone? Welcome in to the reveal of the number 23 team in my power rankings heading into the 2025 NFL season. Today we’ll be taking a deep dive into the Atlanta Falcons. Thank goodness this team drafted Michael Penn in the top 10 of last year’s draft because the Kirk Cousins signing was a disaster class here. But just a year removed from that, Falcons fans head into the 2025 season with a lot of excitement and expectations for this team led by Michael Penn. So much so that I think coming in with the 23rd ranking in this series will lead to a lot of people saying that is too low. I do still think Pennix and several other aspects of this team do have a lot to prove, but the upside for them to shatter this 23rd ranking absolutely is there. So, I’m excited to get into all of it here today. Before we do get started, if you could do me a huge favor, please take just a second to hit that like button. It’s a free and easy thing that really does help support this series. It tells other Falcons fans and NFL sickos just like you to check out the video. I really appreciate it. And of course, make sure you are subscribed so you don’t miss any of these deep dives as we lead up to the number one team in my power rankings. But as always, let’s begin the video by taking a look at this team’s off seasonason. Where they got better, where they got worse, where they may be staying the same. And we will start with the coaching staff. And just into year two of Raheem Morris in Atlanta. They are making some changes at defensive coordinator. The fingerpointing and scapegoating has already begun. Not really a great sign. Raheem Morris is supposed to be in charge of this defense, but Jimmy Lake gets fired here and they bring in the prank call godfather, Jeff Olrich. Uh, I’m not really ready to say that’s a substantial change with the coaching staff because again, this is supposed to be Raheem Morris’s defense. Who the deacto defensive coordinator is is much less substantial to me. And I don’t think there’s a huge difference between Jimmy Lake and Jeff Olrich either. And as we look at the offensive roster changes this off season, man, Rahee Morris better get this defense going because they are telling us that the offense is good to go. We need to pull our resources into this defense. And there’s really not much change at all going on with this offensive roster. Quarterback staying neutral. Obviously, they hand the keys over from Kurt Cousins to Michael Penn. But from a roster perspective, both the same guys in the building. They did bring in Easton Stick as a QB3. Um, but staying neutral there. No change at running back. Tight end, virtually no change as well. They did pick up Teegan Qutoraniano, a former day three pick by the Houston Texans with some size at wide receiver. also staying neutral. They did have a nice undrafted free agent pickup in Nick Nash. Um, lower on him than I think a lot of people were heading into the draft, but to go undrafted and a good scheme fit that we can discuss later on, at least noteworthy for an undrafted free agent pickup. And then really the only shift with the offensive roster talent is going to be on the offensive line. Um, they are losing Drew Dolman to the Bears. If Dolman had played all of last season for the Falcons, I would say this is just a straightup downgrade. Um, but because of that time missed and because they did like what they saw in Ryan Nutell at center there. I’m going to say slightly downgraded as Nutell steps in and looks to fill those shoes at center. And then they just spent a seventh round pick on Jack Nelson out of Wisconsin. But then you look over at the defensive changes and it is night and day where this front office where this team uh did and needed to uh spend their resources. Um but you know there’s also a lot of players kind of out the door here as well. So a lot to get into here on the interior of the defensive line. I do think that group is actually slightly downgraded. They lose Grady Jarrett who’s been a staple for this team. Um, not that it’s like this colossal loss, but he did play two out of every three snaps on that defensive line. Was still a nice three down interior presence for them. Something they aren’t going to have right now um to fill those shoes. You know, they assigned Morgan Fox, who might even be a slightly better pass rusher than Grady Jarrett, but nowhere near the player for early down work. And then Eddie Goldman as well is on the way out. But yeah, again, slightly downgraded on the interior of the defensive line. They are hoping all of these upgrades on the edge, however, can more than compensate for a slight downgrade on the interior. Um, so huge. I mean, you just don’t see a lot of position groups that get this much shakeup in one off season. Matthew Judon, that addition was a disaster. He was horrible for them last year. So much that even though he’s a big name, I could not call that a big loss. I’ll still say a moderate loss because of how much he played for them. Um, but Falcons fans, they want that pick back, I think, that they gave for Matthew Judon. And then Lorenzo Carter as well out the door. Some rotational pieces and James Smith Williams and Don Harris not back with the team either. But as far as the additions, the Falcons obviously made a huge splash in the first round of the draft. Not just drafting Jaylen Walker with the 15th pick, but trading a future first round pick to come up from the second round and get James Pierce Jr. as well. So double dipping on first round edge talent there. Big swing at this group that has been a nightmare for seemingly as long as I’ve been watching football. They’ve been looking for edge rushers. So, attacking that aggressively, they also gave Leonard Floyd a one-year $10 million deal. All right, decent enough addition pre-draft there to get an adult in the room, basically. And then also got to mention Brillin Trice, their high third round pick from last year’s draft, didn’t play for them last year, so they get another piece, another young piece, another unproven piece into that edge group. But that room was so bad last year. Even if all these young guys are unproven, that group is going to be upgraded. How could it not be? But then at linebacker, I said neutral here. They lose Nate Landman, who was a really good early down run defense presence for them. He heads to the Rams. He played half of their snaps last year, got banged up, and they bring in Divine Diablo. You could argue slightly upgraded here. I I think ultimately these are similar caliber players. They’re just a little different in terms of style. Diablo a little more balanced whereas Landman’s more of a run defenseoriented player. So kind of a shift in skill set there for sure. But then at cornerback, I said neutral as they lose nobody and make some small additions of Mike Ford, more of a special teamer there. And then Billy Bowman, the college safety from Oklahoma seems they view him as a nickel cornerback. So, I listed him there with the corners. Um, not enough for me to say upgraded to any extent, but adequate additions for what they are. At safety, even if Justin Simmons is a big name and played 91% of their snaps last year, he’s not a huge loss. I said that’s a, you know, that’s a noteworthy moderate loss. He was, you know, kind of replacement level for them last year. the NFL was kind of right that Justin Simmons is slowing down and not really the impact that he uh once was yet again here in the 2025 offseason. Justin Simmons is still out there to be signed by anybody. And there’s not much of a market for him yet again. Um they make three kind of additions here. The biggest of which is Xavier Watts in the third round which I’m a huge fan of Xavier Watts. In fact, he was something they got in that tradeup for James Pierce. That needs to be factored in and mentioned at some point in this video cuz that James Pierce pick got um and and trading this year’s first round pick to go get James Pierce, that was heavily uh crucified by NFL media. But to actually take your second round pick and your first rounder next year, turn it into James Pierce Jr. And then they get a third rounder back from the Rams, which they used to draft Xavier Watts, who I viewed as a top 50 player in this draft. So, I do want to give this Falcons front office a lot of credit for landing Xavier Watts. A little luck is involved there, and we’ll see what type of player he can be, but I actually think it’s reasonable to hope that Xavier Watts can be as good, if not a little better, than Justin Simmons was last year. But if nothing else, they have more depth. They signed Jordan Fuller, who Raheem Morris is familiar with with his time with the Rams and also Demarco Helms, another young player um that had you know a reasonable amount of excitement heading into year two last year. He also missed his full season last year. So again, hopefully upgraded with that safety room. And then with the special teams, they are changing return men, a pair of kind of former corners turned offensive gadget sl return players going from Avery Williams to Jamal Agnu. Probably a minuscule upgrade going from Williams to Agnu, but not substantial enough for me to say the special teams at large is really upgraded or downgraded. But yeah, there is your off seasonason. Like we said, a heavy focus on loading up on defensive firepower aggressively. So, you know, packaging that future first to take that asset from next year’s team and drop it into this year’s team. Uh kind of raising the stakes in in many ways for this team season. Even if I ultimately think the value worked out for Atlanta and I’m higher on that move up to get James Pierce than many people are, you still have to like prove that that first rounder that you’re now giving to the Rams isn’t going to be a top 10 pick in next year’s draft. And that is as we transition to this coach and scheme segment going to put a lot of pressure on Raheem Morris heading into year two here. I mean, needless to say, year one was uninspiring, uh, lackluster to say the best. I mean, I’m I’m just going to be honest, man. For those that think the Falcons ranking 23rd in this series is too low in the in the power rankings, how I view Raheem Morris, how I rank him, that’s a big factor here. I’m just going to be honest, I’m not a big believer in Raheem Morris that he is the guy that’s going to be able to take the Falcons where they need to go. And you factor in that he kind of put his chips on the table to go get that extra defensive player for again his defense here where he already scapegoed one defensive coordinator. Absolutely. Raheem Morris is on the hot seat for this this season that does have expectations attached to it for the Falcons. And what do I always say about teams hiring a defensive coordinator to be their head coach? something along the lines of a there’s a lot of really good defensive minds in the league that are defensive coordinators. There’s a bigger depth of good defensive minds in the league than I think there are offensive minds. So, if you’re going to hire a defensive guy to be your head coach, he better be like genuinely one of the 10 or so great defensive minds that you feel really are elevating a defense. And needless to say, Raheem Morris is not that. I mean, his Rams defenses were okay. This defense last year was brutal. They finished the season ranking 29th in defensive DVOA. And you just didn’t feel the progress throughout the year either. That’s a big deal. Like you look at some of the top defensive minds that have been hired in the last three or four years, whether it’s Demo Ryans or Robert Solo with the Jets, Matt Ilfloose with the Bears. Um, I think what Vic Fangio did as the season went on with the Eagles last year, even if even if these guys come in and it takes some time to kind of find their guys and figure out what works schematically, almost all of these exciting, high ranking defensive minds, you saw the progress and by season’s end, things got better. That wasn’t the case in Atlanta. They lose three games in the last five games of the season, giving up 42, 30, and 44 points, week 18 to the Carolina Panthers that I think ultimately led to the firing and really scapegoating of Jimmy Lake. And yeah, Falcons fans are going to come out and say, “Yeah, Jimmy Lake was terrible. Of course, we had to fire him.” No, you brought in Raheem Morris to be a great defensive mind. And I know I’m sounding like I’m overly harsh on him, but look, like the stakes do need to be raised when you hire a defensive head coach, and I didn’t see really anything from a results perspective or or frankly scheming perspective that tells me Raheem Morris is bringing anything to the table to this Falcons team that a long run of defensive coordinators out there couldn’t do. while you have either an offensive mind elevating the offense here. Obviously, they hope Zack Robinson can be that, but the second he is, he’s going to be gone. That’s obviously a big deal attached to hiring a defensive coordinator as your head coach, which I’ve discussed a lot. Or go get like a a CEO culture lord like a you know, Harbah’s obviously become the gold standard there, but a Pete Carol type another example. And I I don’t think Raheem Morris has proven to be this great culture lord, if you want to go with that term, for that style of coach. I I don’t have any heavy criticisms of his ability to run the locker room and relate to players. I don’t I don’t necessarily think he’s bad at that, but it’s not like his thing, right? So needless to say, like the biggest of years for Raheem Morris, I actually have him ranked as the 31st head coach in the league as we head into the year behind some rookie hires as well. And if you look at the overall defensive coaching rankings, again, not not horrible. They’re 22nd to 27th with a Bminus grade for pass defense coaching and 23rd to 28th with a Bminus grade in run defense coaching. Those are still solid rankings, but that’s the point. Like a solid defensive coach gets you in the mid20s in this modern framework of the NFL where there’s so many defensive coordinators out to out there to be had. And I really just view Raheem Morris as just another one of those guys. And it’s on him this year really in my opinion to prove me wrong about that. And I I I have nothing against Raheem Morris. I think he earned the opportunity. Like I think he was done wrong in his first head coaching stint with the Bucks um where he was basically thrown to the Wolves and then fired after a year. Like it’s not so much about that. I think he has worked his way up and earned an opportunity. But now it is on him to prove that he can hold on to this job. And if he can prove to be a better coach than I’m discussing him as here as we head into this upcoming season, then yeah, that’s going to go a long way towards the Falcons shattering this 23rd overall power ranking. But beyond his kind of standing with this team and in the league there, let’s discuss his scheme and what this team is going to look like X’s and O’s wise on the defensive side of the ball. And we we’ll talk about Jeff Olrich’s influence here a little bit as well. But to keep things on at least a positive note with Raheem Morris, theoretically speaking, he has run it all throughout his career. starting way back in the early 2000s, very heavily involved with those Tampa 2 style defenses. He worked under Jim Hasslett uh in Washington for three years, 2012 to 2014. Um and then he joins up with Dan Quinn here in Atlanta where they tried and failed miserably, but tried to replicate the Seattle 3 defense. Um, so very familiar with that whole background of of scheming and then most recently kind of was absorbed by the Rams coaching system, if you will, the Brandon Staley Shawn McVey style of defense there with the Rams with being their defensive coordinator for three years after Brandon Staley left. And Morris was obviously heavily involved, I think, with Shawn McVey. And this sort of um twist off of the Brandon Staley defense that Morris ran with the Rams that uh was then continued by Chris Schula uh in LA and then Raheem Morris ran that same system here with Atlanta. So, even though he’s got all these other influences, what he showed us last year, and I I think in many ways the types of moves they made this off season, which we can get into some of the scheme fits and how these certain additions match what they want to do as the video goes on. Um, but it’s very clear like Raheem Morris is running a continuation of that Rams defense really for better or worse. So what that defense is is a scheme that is very similar stylistically to a Vic Fangio Brandon Staley style defense where they want to play that off zone match style where your corners are are playing off of the receivers’s face not a ton of press coverage play that kind of bend don’t break style defense in many ways prevent big plays and obviously as we’ve discussed in many of these videos the core concept of a Fangio defenses, your two shell pre- snap coverage, and then rotating those guys up and down into any variety of coverage to try to, you know, kind of cause chaos and confusion for the quarterback and force mistakes. So, there’s a lot of that with this defense, but it’s it is different what they do here with the Falcons, what the Rams do. And I would also say the Carolina Panthers under Azero Evero are very very closely knit to this kind of deviation from the Fangio tree. And the the core difference there is it’s the heavy focus on cover three. The Falcons, the Rams, and the Panthers were all top six in the percentage of their coverages that were cover three last year. All over 40% there. And that does, by the way, include any sort of cover three fire zone blitz, which is a big part of what Raheem Morris wants to do. Especially late last season, they started to run a lot of fire zone blitzes because they kind of had to. They didn’t have guys that could win, so they had to blitz more. Um, but their blitzes were primarily out of that sort of zone based, zone matchbased, cover three stuff that PFF does chart, which is where I’m getting these numbers from. Um, they do um, batch that in, which I wish they would split those up differently as someone that used to chart those coverages myself. But anyway, it is that heavy emphasis on more of a single high at least post snap coverage look. And and by the way, when you have a Jesse Bates, also not a bad idea to have him kind of stay focused as a as a deep uh middle third. Um but it’s it’s more than just Jesse Bates. That’s what they did with the Rams, too. But even if they end up in cover three more than a lot of the other Fangio or even the Mike McDonald systems as an expansion off the Fangio coaching tree, um this team does still give you some of those pre-nap uh quarters looks to try to cause confusion and and kind of get back to that core philosophy of a Vic Fangio defense. Um, and in fact, the Falcons, the Panthers, and the Rams, these three schemes kind of being tightly knit, they were all top four in cover six as well. So, that’s kind of their change up, if you will. But it is generally speaking that sort of put an umbrella over the opposing offense. Play top down bend don’t break style defense and you know hope you can you can get some good blitz designs uh and and uh as well use a lot of twists in games up front off of fourman rushes to manufacture a pass rush as well. Not a lot of kind of crazy multiple heavy box loaded fronts. Most of their rushes are four or fiveman rushes with some form of a game element to it, whether it’s a blitz or a stunt. Um, and yeah, there’s your there’s your overall defensive scheme for the Falcons. Now, Jeff Olrich is coming in here. So, we will see now what all that means because um, you know, this is a little bit of a nepotism hire, if you will. These guys were together in Atlanta for a long time. So, it could just be as simple as that. But has gone in a much different direction with the types of defenses he’s run since they were together in Seattle. Um Olrich’s more of a a 42 Robert Salah inspired defense. Uh a defense that does run a ton of quarters coverage. Um so you know very different system. It’s good to have kind of a you know a different um approach to the defense in the building there. Uh, and as we saw last year, Raheem Morris did kind of in many ways hand the defense off to Jimmy Lake. Again, I ask, what is it that you do here if that’s what you’re doing? Um, so there might be there might be more of that with Jeff Olrich and we see the sort of Robert Salahesque defense here in Atlanta based on everything they’ve done, their offseason moves, getting a um Morgan Fox, who I think they’re going to view as their sort of Braden Fisk in this Rams defense as their sort of stunt man up front, getting a bunch of edge rushers like a Jaylen Walker and Leonard Floyd who are are good coverage droppers as a 34 guy off of all of those kind of fire zone blitzes where you’re dropping that edge into coverage like we talked about. That screams to me like Raheem Morris is going to stick in this system and um is going to come in and I guess help him run it. Um I I guess we’ll see how this goes, what types of scheme they look like and what sort of success they have. Um but let’s let’s flip over to the offensive coaching discussion with Zack Robinson here. more Rams uh influence with this coaching staff here. Uh so this is kind of one of these young Shawn McVey disciples and this was absolutely a Shawn McVey offense. The Falcons were towards the top of the league in 11 personnel last year. That wide zone play action, you know, inspired offense that I think we’re all very familiar with. um this sort of Shanny McVey system getting permeated throughout the league and this was kind of right par for the course in terms of what a lot of these teams are looking for in that kind of next ascending mind that learned from Shawn McVey and that’s I think really where we can leave the conversation. I I didn’t see too much innovation off of that system. Too much um you know prowess from a play calling perspective to get like ecstatic about Zack Robinson from what we saw last year. I I think it was pretty standard very Shawn McVey style offense stuff. Um and it’s not that I have anything negative to say about Zack Robinson, but I think he is very much proving himself. So, as far as the rankings go, they do come closer to the bottom of the league than towards the top of the league with Zack Robinson. They’re 23rd to 30th in pass game coaching with a C plus grade. Really just saying, you know, go prove yourself. I I don’t have any negative things to say, but go get it done. Go climb these rankings. Run game as well, ranking 28th to 32nd. That’s where like I just I didn’t see a whole lot of creative ingenuity in the run game. Watching Atlanta, it really did feel like they just kind of mashed wide zone at you and it worked because this offensive line is excellent at blocking wide zone. I frankly give Arthur Smith a lot of credit for establishing that as a strength with this Falcons team beforehand. Um, and yeah, you got Bejian Robinson and um, Tyler Algier. So, yeah, you should be able to run the ball, but I I frankly would like to see even more uh run game ingenuity to um feel better about Zack Robinson, and that very much could be on the table here for Atlanta this year. It’s a big year for everybody involved, but Zack Robinson as well. And if he is successful here to the extent that they could be, again, this team has a lot of upside, then Zack Robinson very much will be on the head coaching spotlight because we’ve seen this how many times at this point? The Shawn McVey disciple takes an offensive coordinator job, oftentimes under a defensive head coach. He goes to get a head coaching job and is wildly successful. And then the team that had the defensive head coach is just sitting there like, great, guess we’re back to square one. Which I think is a fitting way to end this coaching conversation. Um, where it’s obviously not the most optimistic outlook for me on this Falcons team. It’s not. Um, it’s not that this team is doomed with these coaches and they can’t prove me wrong, but I am skeptical. Uh, especially with Raheem Morris at the top of all this, that he’s he’s a franchise elevating coach. And I would love to get your thoughts on that, especially Falcons fans thoughts on that as well, cuz I I don’t think I’m alone in thinking that. Now, before we break down this roster, guys, the summer months are here. Go out, have some fun, go to a concert, go to a ball game or pre-order your tickets to go see the Falcons or whatever NFL team you want to go see during the NFL season. And when you do that, do it through Seedgeek, the number one ticketing app out there. SeatGeek is certainly my go-to place to buy tickets. The best user interface with their color coding system, showing images of every seat, what it’s actually going to look like with a real photo there. Just look for the green dots and you will guarantee you get the most bang for your buck. There is a reason SeatGeek is the most trusted ticketing app on the market. And now, if you use code TFG10 at checkout, you’ll save up to $20 on top of all of that. Thank you to Seedgeek for sponsoring today’s deep dive and being a great partner to work with. Everyone, go have yourself some fun this summer. But with that said, let’s get into the roster breakdown for this Falcons team. Starting with the everinteresting quarterback conversation with the Atlanta Falcons, now headed by Michael Penn Jr. in year two after dethroning Kirk Cousins as the starter last year. We can talk about Kirk a little bit afterwards, but let’s highlight Michael Pennix here, who it’s it’s just all excitement and enthusiasm right now as we head into year two. He got three starts in 2024, so obviously I not going to rank him that high in this series with how I do things. He has a lot to prove as the former number eight overall pick, but we can talk about what I saw in those three starts. I went in and watched all of them and revisit a little bit about what we thought about him as a prospect too because that definitely still matters when the sample size is this small. Um, but from those three games, he really didn’t give us anything to be overly negative about. I think we saw especially a quarterback that I do think benefited from those 15 weeks or whatever it was getting to sit and learn behind Kurt Cousins. As streaky and and often poor as Kurt Cousins was playing, he is a quarterback that obviously is a former fourth round pick that has had the career he’s had, is a good mentor to have and a good guy to kind of mirror his process and learn from. Um, and when Michael Pennix did step in, we saw a a 24 year old rookie that was ready to roll. And above all, the the best thing we can say about Michael Penn. And I think why there is this wave of optimism for what he can be for this Falcons team is that for a rookie quarterback, the game did not look too fast for him, as it often does for these young quarterbacks. He stepped in. He ran the offense on time. He knew his reads. He would get to second reads. He commanded the huddle. He looked the part. And yes, as with any young quarterback, you’re going to be able to nitpick some plays here and there where you you say, “I we need that throw to be a little bit quicker.” Um, you know, we need you to get to that second read or you missed a read. Like, yeah, that’s going to happen with any quarterback, period, but especially a rookie. You’re going to give him a little bit more of a pass for that kind of stuff though when the general picture of it all looks pretty good from that perspective of processing and decision-m and command of the offense. So that’s a huge green light for Michael Penn. And then you can kind of get into more of the quote unquote physical evaluation of it all. Like obviously the arm talent we knew coming out of Washington frankly spectacular probably top 10 in the NFL among starters and that was on display. I mean some of the impressive throws he’s able to make you know cross field deep bombs towards the pylon firing in some of these impressive deep outs that make you think of some of the great strong armed quarterbacks in the league. you know, like Justin Herbertesque, Josh Allenesque, that was absolutely on display in his three starts. So, that’s naturally going to get you excited when you see these throws and know that you’ve got a quarterback here that can genuinely make every throw in the entire playbook. Now, I think the biggest knock is you watch that Washington game, which again, it’s that’s 33% of the tape we have on him. We did see him spray his fair share of throws. Now, he battled back late in that game to keep uh Atlanta competitive. Um but there were some ugly moments in terms of missed throws. So, that was something that was on tape at Washington, especially as he targeted the middle of the field. That’s an area of his game I think I don’t necessarily want to say it’s critical that he improves upon, but if he’s going to ever be like a top 10 quarterback, then yeah, it’s it’s critical, frankly, that he works on the timing of those throws. And um you know, whatever the quarterback’s coach can work with him mechanics-wise to just lower that landing spot a little bit more so you’re not sailing these balls over the middle of the field, which is always going to be dangerous because you’re throwing it right into a safety’s hands at times. that’s obviously going to be detrimental to your offense and and hold you back. So, that’s that’s the core thing I saw on film that followed him back to Washington that you want to see him improve upon. I I do think his, you know, deep ball accuracy is is really damn good for a young passer. Maybe room to improve that a little bit, but that’s not so much the concern for me. It’s more of those inb breakers, the digs and the crossers that are a core aspect of any Shanahan style offense. Um, so that’s something to keep an eye on with him. And then not to highlight the sort of critiques of Michael Penn, but I think the the upside and the arm strength and the excitement, all the good things about Michael Penn do really speak for their themselves. Um, but the other kind of quote unquote drawback with Michael Penn going back to Washington and also what we saw in those three games with Atlanta is he’s he’s just not a play extender. It’s not in his DNA. I don’t think he has that natural feel as well for the decomposition of the pocket. That sort of uh predinatural pocket feel to set up blockers and move through the pocket to extend plays in and out of the pocket. And then like you know on top of that to know when and how to use his feet to extend plays to get out of the pocket and make plays with his legs. There’s a lot of excitement with Michael Penn because he is a great athlete. I think he ran like what like a he ran like a 459 or 45. Like he ran really fast. When he does use his legs, he’s really good, but he has a little bit of that kind of Derek Carr. Um I’ve been critical of Justin Herbert for this as well, which I think is ultimately, you know, Michael Pennix could be something like a Justin Herbert to highlight like the upside and the the excitement uh with with with his skill set. But similarly, like there’s a lot of plays where you want to see him use his legs more and he only scrambled four times uh for 14 yards last year. So he just he doesn’t always tap into the play extension aspect and he can be one of these quarterbacks a lot of Dak Prescott in him in this way where there are a handful of plays each week seemingly where he chooses to kind of stare down the barrel of the gun. uh which is commendable that he’s willing to stand in there and get hit while throwing. Um but he’s he would rather on a on a critical third down I think make that throw, have a receiver make a contested catch, move the chains that way than to extend the play with his legs and maybe find a more high percentage look to keep drives alive. Now it is nice when you have a Drake London on your team if that’s your play style. So that’s that’s definitely going to help him out in that phase. Um, but that’s I guess a part of the evaluation on Michael Penn that going back to college and what we saw early, he wants to beat you from the pocket and he’s got a ton of upside to do that. And we are putting the cart way before the horse in terms of any sort of eventual upside conversations, but that could be something that eventually keeps him out of that elite tier of quarterback. But there are a lot of traits here. Like I like I started the conversation, I think the mental makeup for him is really, really strong. The processing and decision-m is at a very good baseline for a young quarterback. So, I’m excited to see it. He, you know, we’re going to talk about this roster, but he’s got a lot of pieces to work with. And uh heading into what is in many ways his rookie season, um I’ve got the Falcons ranked 25th at quarterback for the passing grade, but because they don’t really use him as a rushing threat, um both by the design of this offense, you know, Shawn McVey style offenses, um follow it to Kevin Oonnell in Minnesota, like the QB run game’s just not a huge part of what they’ve done in those offenses. But even more so, Penn does have a litany of injuries going back to college, starting at Indiana, and I think the Falcons are well aware of that. They want to limit his exposure to big hits. Um, so until proven otherwise, he doesn’t really bring much to the table in the design run game, and that’s fine, but that does take this from where they were 25th in passing all the way down to 26th for the overall quarterback grade. whereas um not to tease the team, but we do have a young quarterback who comes in 26th in passing, but ended up our 25th overall quarterback, if that makes sense. But ultimately, yes, Michael Penn, huge wild card for this team. This team in many ways goes as Michael Penn goes, how he looks here in a a big year two, not a critical year two. We’re not going to write him off if things don’t go great this year, but it is a big year. Um, needless to say, and why he gets that wild card icon next to him here on the graphic. Now, let’s briefly talk about Kirk Cousins. I don’t want to spend too much time on this because unless Penn does get hurt, I think we’ve seen the last of Kirk Cousins taking snaps in Atlanta. Um, I’m not quite ready to just write him off as useless now. Even last season, there were a couple of games, specifically against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, like the two games against Tampa, he looked like Pton Manning wearing that number 18. Most of the other games though, you did see a guy who was not comfortable. Uh you’re removed from that Achilles injury. Arm talent had, I think, fallen off a little bit, partly because of age, partly because it’s just tough to deal with an Achilles recovery. Um, but that’s why I ultimately am not fully done with Kurt Cousins. Now, a full year removed from that Achilles injury. It’s possible that he could get a little bit more out of his body physically speaking and still be like a bridge quarterback option for somebody or that he could step in and play pretty well for this Falcons team if that opportunity were to present itself for him. Um, I just don’t know that we’ve for sure seen the last of Kirk Cousins, but at least for this season, I mean, he is kind of in this like luxury prison situation, you know, in the movies where the billionaire ends up in jail, but it’s just like this luxury office that he can’t leave. That’s kind of Kurt Cousins here making $40 million guaranteed for this Falcons team. No one can take on that contract. And the Falcons can’t just release him because it they literally would be drowning in the salary cap if they did that. So, he’s he’s here at least for the year. I just don’t know how they can logistically move him. Um maybe there’s a a workaround that they could they could find, but uh yeah, he’s he’s going to be here as a backup, I think, for the season. And then maybe as we we get to 2026, a team is entertaining him as a bridge option. Um but yeah, there’s your there’s your quarterback room. Don’t need to spend much time on East Stick. He’s a he’s a mobile backup type, but obviously the the Falcons can’t rank that high with how I do things in this series, needing young players, unproven talent to prove it before they earn that high ranking. Um, that’s where the 26th overall QB grade comes in. Um, but all signs are pointing up. And I always remind people, these are week one power rankings, not necessarily how I expect things to finish. I am generally speaking quite optimistic that Pennix is a good fit here and that he will climb up these rankings as the season goes on and in turn uh should lead to the Falcons having their share of success offensively. Um and a big part of that as well is this group of weapons which ranks with a B+ grade for me 11th to 13th in the NFL. a lot of talent in this group, but it’s also just a very logical, even distribution of skill sets where everybody kind of has their role in the design of this offense. And it all just does kind of line up and make sense, even if they don’t necessarily have elite talent um to get towards the very top of the the rankings here. But they have more than enough to work with um in the sense that the weapons shouldn’t be the excuse here for the Falcons, barring injury. I mean, Drake London’s obviously a huge part of that. I have been so wrong about Drake London coming out of college. I didn’t hate Drake London, but I didn’t really think he was worth a top 10 pick. I thought he was going to be maybe a little bit closer to like what maybe Michael Pitman has been for the Colts in a best case scenario where I I just didn’t ever see a world where you would feel good about Drake London being your best wide receiver. I was so concerned about the lack of speed and the focus on contested catch ability that I undersold his contested catch ability and just how dominant he is at the catch point, but also his route running prowess in the short to intermediate game to genuinely create separation in a way that um he has just blown me away at the next level. And I I am at a point now where I am more than comfortable if Drake London is your best wide receiver. Now, like I mentioned, he’s not an elite talent. There are shortcomings in his game in terms of big playability, vertical threat ability that a lot of the game’s best wide receivers do have. A lot of our top five or six ranking groups of weapons in the NFL are going to have those tier one elite alpha wide receivers. I don’t know that Drake London can ever get to that point. I would even bet against that just because of the lack of speed and those are really really special players we’re talking about there. The Justin Jeffersons and Jamar Chases of the world. I I just don’t think Drake London has quite that upside. But I do still think the arrow can be pointing up on Drake London as he just hasn’t had the right quarterback play for an entire season this year. When we did see Michael Pennock step in and the passing game looked frankly at its best late in the season, Drake London was eating. He had 17 receptions for almost 300 yards in those last two games. Granted, against the Commanders and the Panthers. Um, but yeah, I think just in terms of how we view Drake London from a production standpoint, he had a career year last year at,200 yards, nine touchdowns, awesome season. Uh, again, cementing himself as someone that I think very well can be your best wide receiver as long as you put the right complimentary pieces around him. Um, but could he get up maybe into that kind of top six, seven wide receiver in the NFL conversation? Maybe closer to like how we discuss Amanra St. Brown for example. Um, different styles of wide receivers in some regards, some similarities as well. But yeah, I think that could be the last evolution of Drake London. And then like an Amra St. Brown, someone that is going to have a very hard time entering that sort of Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson level. But I just want to give him a little bit more credit before we move on. There was I think it was Nico Elite Takes on Twitter was asking who’s the best route runner in the NFL. And Drake London isn’t my final answer to that question. There are other guys that you would put over Drake London in in the route running category, but that is the area of Drake London’s game that he has just blown me away so much. Um, yes, when he is working in space and he’s so good from the slot, too, where he’s not getting pressed, he can run two-way goes and uses shoulder fakes and he has remarkable foot speed for such a big guy that allows him to cut on a dime. He is a good route runner just out in space for your sort of tick- tock routes, if you will. But perhaps the most advanced part of route running that just doesn’t really get lumped into the route runner conversation is being able to play through contact. Like that is part of running routes is understanding that you’re going to deal with physical coverage and that yes, sometimes you do have to push off. Sometimes you have to do what Drake London does where he does these almost like swim moves in between his routes to win leverage. Um creating separation before the catch as well. Like that is the physical side of route running that never gets lumped into that conversation. And if you pair that with the fact that he is just a good, you know, route runner in the traditional sense, I do think Drake London can put himself into the conversation for just who who are the best receivers at at the art of running routes. Like he is tremendous at that even if he doesn’t have that top speed necessarily to stack corners on the outside and be this tremendous big play threat. Um, and then the dude, the the contested catch ability speaks for itself, but he’s so unbelievable at it, dude. Like, and and he’s gotten so good at it. He did a careerhigh last year. Came down with 22 out of 38 contested catch targets. That was at 58%. I’ve talked about how the term 50/50 ball is uh disingenuine to what that actually is in the NFL. I mean, if you’re at a 50% contested catch win rate, you’re you’re in exceptional territory. It is not normal to be a big wide receiver and to be able to convert 50% of your contested catch targets. Drake London does it and has for the course of his career, every year he’s been over 50%. But to get up towards 60% when you’re getting that volume of targets and your tape shows a guy with that basketball background. I mentioned the way he he uses his arms to win at the catch point um to win body positioning and just the play strength and focus at the catch point. You can literally throw him the ball whenever and there’s a pretty good chance he’ll come down with it. But he also broke up seven interceptions last year that was tied for second in the NFL. Um, the only person above him, by the way, was Elijah Moore because there was a lot of interceptions to break up playing with Deshun Watson and Jameus Winston. Um, but yeah, I just I have become such a fan of Drake London and I’ve learned so much about the wide receiver position just from watching his game. And I’m not going to say I regret my draft analysis of him, but I was so wrong. And I’m not afraid to say I’m I’m proud to hold my hand up and say I was wrong. I’ve learned here from Drake London. There’s there’s so many different ways to win at this position and he does it in a in a very rare way. So, um that’s a great starting point, but like I said, you you do need verticality to pair with a Drake London because otherwise defenses can really collapse down on him. You you like if he’s going to be one of the better threats off of dig routes, for example, you need to have those safeties have the respect for somebody over the top. Otherwise, they’re just going to crash and double team Drake London and take that away. And that’s why the Darnell Mooney signing was such a big deal last year. They needed this presence. They located him. They watched the tape in Chicago and said, “Hey, that guy’s getting open, but their quarterback, Justin Fields, just isn’t looking at him because he’s the second read on all these plays.” And he comes into Atlanta. The flip of a switch, Darno Mooney is back to being a really nice number two wide receiver. This is exactly the role he should be in as a Z, as a vertical threat, someone to run, um, you know, uh, out routes as well, comebackers off of the threat of that uh, verticality in his game. And Mooney ends up just short of 1,000 yards. Um, 992 yards on the season. That that it’s just like a very stable spot for Darnell Mooney to be. he has become a value for this Falcons team um because of how he was utilized in Chicago. I think it was a three or $40 million deal for Darnell Mooney. Like you will pay this player that every single day of the week, especially when his skill set again is a necessary compliment to Drake London. Is he the best wide receiver too in the world? No. There are better wide receiver twos out there that are bigger, faster, more dynamic after the catch, better at the catch point, but he does everything they need him to do at not just an above average level, but a genuinely good level. So, I’m a big fan of Darnell Mooney. I think too, if you want to talk a little fantasy football for a second, I’m obviously high on Drake London, what he’s going to do this year, but I think Darnell Mooney, too, there’s a lot of value in him, too. Especially if you’re playing best on underdog where it’s all about just getting big weeks and they’ll set your best lineup for that week. There’s going to be weeks where teams either double team Drake London or use those safety rotations to focus on Drake London. Big opportunities down the field for Darnell Mooney will open up. That happened last year even with Kurt Cousins in there. But Michael Penn with his arm. There’s going to be some weeks I think where Darnam Mooney has 150 yard two touchdown um types of weeks. Currently going in the 10th 11th round on underdog as the 47th wide receiver drafted. He’s absolutely someone to target in that format. But even for your home leagues I think uh as a wide receiver to have on your bench I think is a great by-week play as well. So big fan really of both these guys be because I think these two guys they they make so much sense together and this is going to be the the core focal point of this passing game where I’m not so much buying stock anymore is the Kyle Pittz train. In fact, I’m jumping off the train. And I hope this is the year that now that I’ve jumped off, he becomes the superstar that, you know, with the potential and the number four overall pick and years now at this point of us waiting for Kyle Pittz to be this dynamic superstar weapon of a of a pass catcher. I hope that happens this year, but I just it’s it’s been three years now of the film not being there on him. The production obviously not being there. I mean, look, Kyle Pittz, you make all the excuses in the world you want for him. He came down with four out of 16 contested catch targets last season. That’s 25%. After being 38% last year and 25% again in 2022. I don’t have the reason for why that skill set disappeared, but where is that dog in Kyle Pittz? That was of all the athleticism and how good of a route runner he was for a tight end. And you know, everything we praised him for, the defining strength in Kyle Pittz’s game was his ball skills, the unreal catches he made at Florida State where they would just put the ball in his area. He would moss defenders. He would make one-handed grabs. It didn’t matter. or just put it in his area, he’s going to come down with it. That has been nowhere to be found in the NFL. And you rip that away, you have an oversized wide receiver who I think his lower body kind he’s had a lot of like foot and ankle injuries. He’s still a pretty good athlete, but he’s not a he’s not even like an exceptional athlete for the tight end position at this point. Not not on film. In theory, you want him to be that, but you don’t see a ton of separation um in his routes. Not not against any sort of competent cover player. Even after the catch, which is probably what he does best. Um but even then, he’s not like a superstar after the catch. He was 11th in uh average yards after the catch for tight ends. So, at least there’s one area of his game that he’s doing at a pretty good level. Um, you know, and I know we’re highlighting the disappoint disappointing parts of his game. That’s going to happen anytime you have a player that had these types of expectations. He’s still a useful player and you do still see moments um of tough catches and some of the juice that maybe rope you back in or have roped you in for the last couple of years. I’m done looking at those moments and believing that that’s going to come out full force. If it happens, I would love to see it. And this could be one of the best group of weapons in the league where you are now talking about two different like true differencem types of players if Kyle Pitts or maybe even three with Bejian there depending how much you value the running back in this equation. But um really focus on on Pitts and London their theoretical upside in a best like 2% dream scenario. Yeah, that’s like an elite duo, but I’m just I’m just not betting on that at this point with Kyle Pittz, and I think that is probably understandable. But still a useful receiving forward tight end. That’s the other downside to him is he’s just such a liability as a blocker that it becomes harder to get him involved. and even being a slot wide receiver a lot of the times here in that sort of Cooper Cupesque role with this Shawn McVey expired off um inspired offense you would expect him at least in a wide receiver role for him to be a good blocker he can’t hold Cooper Cup or Jawan Jennings for example he can’t hold their jockstrap as a blocker even though he has 25 pounds on those guys so he’s been underwhelming in that role too that that is probably the pathway for him to take the biggest step is to take that role more seriously um as a wing blocker, as more of a slot wide receiver, then maybe we can get the conversation going here. But um they’ve had a hard time utilizing him in that role, too. So that kind of leaves him as this sort of Noah Fanty receiving forward useful tight end, which is not the end of the world for him to be, you know, the third or fourth part of this equation when when the other parts are pretty good, but it is still disappointing nonetheless. Um, they have Ray Ray Mloud as their gadget slot guy. I don’t I don’t feel the need to spend too much time on Ray Ray Mloud. We know what he is. He’s going to get the jet sweeps and the bubble screens and a lot of the underneath work. He’s an okay player after the catch. Did some nice stuff for them. He’s definitely a part of the picture here, but um you know what you’re getting there. Bejian Robinson is your fifth starter here. And Bejian has solidified himself just as we expected with him coming out of Texas as one of the best receiving backs in the NFL. Depending on how Christian McCaffrey can bounce back, I think Bejon has a chance to emerge as the best receiving threat in the league out of the backfield, at least in terms of doing the complete package. Yeah, there might be some jitterbug speed threats that have even more explosive playability. Um, but there is not a single trait for receiving backs that Bejon is not good at. Great hands, great transitions after the catch without dropping the ball. So many of these guys turn up field before they secure the catch. Bejian had just two drops on 70 targets last year. That’s exceptional for the running back position. Obviously, the missed tackles forced the um jump cuts out in space. Uh being a screen threat, he’s a good route runner. I I don’t know that I’m quite ready to say he’s a great route runner, but for a running back, like he certainly is well above average in that sense, maybe closer to great than above average. Um can even make some tough catches at times. Like he’s he’s fantastic. He can he can track the ball over the shoulder on a wheel route. Uh he is everything you could possibly look for in a receiving threat. So he also uh contributes to the equation. If Bejan was just a replacement level receiving back, this is probably a B-grade for weapons. And it’s a B+ here. That’s there. I don’t other than Christian McAffrey, I don’t know if there’s another back that like genuinely moves the needle in that sense. And by the way, just to have him as a checkdown threat is maybe even where he’s at his best. the the amount of times where it’s a third and eight and Kurt Cousins or whoever might be in there just dumps it down to Bejian Robinson, he makes that slot defender miss and you get a first down out of it. I mean, those are gamechanging plays that steals a possession for you. And when you have a Michael Pennix who’s not the biggest play extender, um I’m not prepared to say he’s great at getting to his checkdown yet. We’ll see. Um but theoretically that could be a just an exceptional outlet for Michael Penn. Um, and there’s your starting five. This is behind their their starting group, maybe the thinnest group of weapons in the league. This is a group that maybe needs to stay healthy more than other groups. They spent so much investing in this defense that I do think you’re seeing the depth on offense uh show up as a as a potential weakness for this team. Outside of your starters on this side of the ball, it’s it’s not just the weapons, but all these other position groups. there’s just just not um a lot of backups that you’re too excited to see step in or or raise the floor if they have to step in. Um you know, Cadrell Hodgej is some of the best of that depth. He’s a wide receiver five. He’s had some clutch moments. You’re okayish there. I I don’t have anything negative to say about Cadrell Hodgej for what he is. Um but he’s Cadill Hodgej, right? And then you got Okay. Casey Washington hardly played last year. undrafted pickup from last year. Not even too familiar with his game, frankly, coming out of Illinois. And then you got Casey Washington, a sixthround pick last year. Got two targets for one reception last year. Not someone I was really familiar with coming out of Illinois. Maybe he’s surprises, but hard to say there’s much there at this point in time. Agnu’s there for special teams. You don’t want him on the field. Ask any Jags fan if you want Jamal Agnu on the field for offense. He’s a disaster waiting to happen. The only kind of interesting depth maybe on this entire offense is Nick Nash. And even then, like I wasn’t that big of a Nick Nash fan coming out. He had crazy production. Won the Triple Crown in in college at San Jose State, but you really break down his tape and there’s there’s not really anything that he does all that well. Like he’s crafty, he’s got decent hands. Um, it’s kind of the two best things I can say about him. He’s got decent size, 6’2, 195, but the reason he’s interesting to me is I what I wrote up about him was if he’s going to have any success in the NFL, if he’s going to have a chance of making it as a role player, uh, it would have to be in that kind of Shawn McVey Shanahan scheme, big slot role where he’s got some size from the slot. Um, I would love to see him bulk up a little bit to be a better run blocker. 95 is a little bit thin for that role. Um, but he does make some tough catches over the middle of the field, can run digs and run up the seam. So, like this would be the right offensive fit for him as their Cooper Cup role in this offense, which to be honest, Drake London can do some of that stuff, but you don’t just want to focus on Drake London in that role outside of Drake London. We mentioned Kyle Pittz has struggled with that, and Ray Mloud just isn’t that guy. He’s a gadget slot. So, um, there is an opportunity for Nick Nash to emerge in that role, especially if the run blocking stuff can come along, and there’s certainly an opportunity for him to make this team. So, good job by Nick Nash and his agent to find a good landing spot as an undrafted player, but he was undrafted for a reason. Um, beyond that, your tight end depth, Charlie Warner is there to block. He is in many ways their starting tight end. He had 327 inline snaps to Kyle Pittz’s 365. So, it’s it is very much a split there. He plays a lot and should be listed as a rotational starter for this team, but at the same time, uh they only target him 11 times for seven catch and 46 yards. And he did have a drop on those 11 targets. He is a blocking specialist, but he plays his role there, uh for this offense, and it’s an important role when Kyle Pittz is as bad of a blocker as he is. But it is kind of a tough spot for them to be in where your two tight ends are so one-dimensional that it’s painful at times. And then they picked up Tegan Qutoraniano. Um big body dude. I I want to say I recall him having a basketball background coming out of Oregon State. Um decent enough pickup for a shot at a tight end three there. Uh and then Tyler Algier is a useful receiving back as well. Bejian’s obviously going to get the most of that workload, but Algier can pass, block, and catch dumpdowns, and he’s he’s adequate at what he needs to do. He’s he’s not the special athlete that Ajan is in that receiving game. And then all the other running backs here, like it’s all just kind of an undrafted crop of guys that I wasn’t familiar with coming out. I mean, Deshawn Corbin, I remember watching him, not seeing much there. Felipe Franks, you know, the quarterback making the transition to tight end project type. I guess maybe we’ll see there, but probably nothing there. Um, but that concludes your depth and conversation on this group of weapons. And as long as your starters stay healthy, Michael Pennock should have more than enough to throw to within this offense. But it should at least be mentioned that this time of year we always just assume all five starters are going to stay healthy and that never happens for most teams. Atlanta is less equipped to handle injuries than I think a lot of the groups of weapons that we have discussed and will discuss in the future. So got to keep these guys healthy. But let’s discuss the backfield here for the Falcons. Another major asset for this team. The Falcons come in with an Agrade at running back. Uh ranking second to third at running back. And for the first maybe 20 games of Bejian Robinson’s career, it was good. But honestly, I think even Falcons fans would admit like the very beginning of his career was a little underwhelming. And a big part of that was Arthur Smith usage as well. Um but it was really fun to see especially like for me as just a huge Bejon fan. Um, but really fun to see him in the second twothirds of last season. I think Bejon arrived for the type of back that we uh knew he was capable of coming out of Texas. I think anybody you ask would say he’s one of the best running back prospects to come out uh in this generation at least. And now heading into 2025, we get a chance to maybe see what he did for the last twothirds of last year for the entirety of the whole season. And if that happens, there’s a very rare situation where Bejian actually takes the crown as the best running back in the league. A crown that does change hands every year or two. As great as Saquon was last year, I don’t think it’s I certainly would not say it’s out of the realm of possibilities that 2025 ends. Beh Robinson is an offensive player of the year candidate or winner and we’re saying, “Yeah, Bejian’s the best running back in the league.” And because of that narrative, because we haven’t seen that full season of elite running back play from him yet, he does stop just short of getting the elite RB grade for me. A 92 rating. 93 is where we start the purple coded elite tier for this series. But definitely think Bejian can get into that category. The dude has every single trait you could look for. Such a special athlete for the position. No, maybe not the elite speed of a Saquon Barkley or maybe not even like Derrick Henry when he hits his top speed when he really gets rolling. Maybe not quite the ability to pull away from defenses that those other top two backs have, but he does have plenty of speed. But Bejon is without a doubt an elite overall athlete in terms of um suddenness, acceleration, change of direction, just like he’s so fluid and that shows up like he ends up in all these awkward body angles, but his ability to just react on a dime. It is so special and and the way he can pair that with his jump cut and his vision to just consistently make guys miss. Bejian finished fourth in missed tackles forced and that was with having less games than all of the other guys. Saquon had 20, Dererick Henry had 19, Josh Jacobs had 18. And with Bejon taking maybe five or six weeks to really settle in at that exceptional level. And that all shows up, by the way, not just in the overall rushing yards and all that. Um, not just on the film, but the PFF grades support this as well. Weeks one through six, Bejian was still really good. He was the 13th overall running back PFF grade about 82. But from weeks seven onward, Vjian Robinson was PFF’s number one ranked running back in the entire league. So again, we get that picture for the entire season. The sky is literally the limit for Bejon. And with that said, fantasy football, give me all the Bejian Robinson you could get. I don’t know what that necessarily means in terms of projection or ADP or whatever, but find the person who’s the highest on Bejian Robinson. Put those chips on the table. I will match it. I am just the utmost believer in his skills and the fit here as well. Recently just made him the first non-quarterback off the board in a new dynasty startup myself, which I think backs that up. But it’s not just him. you have Tyler Algier next to him and that’s how you end up, spoiler alert, but Derrick Henry is for me the second best running back in the league today. Um, but the reason the running back room as a whole ends up with the same grade as the Ravens is because the Ravens don’t have someone like Tyler Algier to step in and get those, you know, 25% of touches that naturally you can’t give your starter every single carry. and having a Tyler Algier here, as frustrating as that might be, or at least it has been frustrating certainly in the Arthur Smith days, that yeah, Algier’s probably going to steal some touchdowns away from Bejon, at least as long as he’s here. He’s probably going to get the nod to close out some games and do some of the dirty work. You’re not going to see the Falcons fully lean into Bjan Robinson like some other teams do with their top backs. But that is because Tyler Algier is really good at that stuff. He is nasty. He has good vision, really good power. You use him in those situations for good reason. And I think this current Falcons regime was much better at knowing when is the appropriate time to use Tyler Algier being those short yardage and grinded out end of game scenarios which the Falcons are hoping they can have more of those this season. Whereas Arthur Smith, it felt a little bit more frustrating and sporadic where it was like big moments and you’re using Tyler Alier instead of Bejon. And that’s just not how you maximize the value of having a Bejon. But I also just love how this timeline lines up here. Uh because Tyler Algier is heading into a contract year here for him and he might finally get his I guess redemption. like he was coming off of a really good rookie season when the Falcons effectively replaced him with Bejian here. Um, and maybe he does just want to stick around and and stay in this complimentary role and this is always the way it’s going to be. Um, and the Falcons want to pay him as the RB2. I’d be a little bit surprised if they did that, but not stunned. But I do think Algier is a starting caliber running back that certainly someone should be looking to pay in free agency this off seasonason, probably more than Atlanta should value him. But I love how this timeline has synced up because if you’re gonna spend the number eight overall pick on a running back, you do want them to get to that second contract. You want to extend the shelf life of that player. And as we saw with like a Zeke Elliott, giving that guy 300 carries a season is just not going to be how you get there. It’s just the reality of this position. So, I do think even if it’s been frustrating at times from a fantasy football perspective, um it was very smart by Atlanta and has been smart to have a guy like Tyler Algier that isn’t just effective when you use him, um but is most effective in the types of carries that would put the biggest burden on Bejian Robinson’s body, getting drilled at the goal line and grinding out games against these pissed-off defenders that are looking to punch you and punch the ball out and all this stuff. So, um, as much fantasy football conversation has been centered around this RB duo, I do think in in real football reality, this is the way to do it. And I’m going to try to enjoy at least one more year of this duo depending on if Atlanta decides to bring Algier back or not. Um, now, as I mentioned, there’s aspects of this offense that the depth is quite poor. uh as we’ll see with the defense, the difference between depth on defense and depth on offense is becoming quite hilarious with this team. But yeah, there’s there’s no one else with any sort of proven track record in this RB room. If anything happened to Bejian or Alier, you would expect that the other guy is going to get 90 to 95% of the workload. So, if you are drafting Bejon uh super high in your fantasy leagues, I would recommend uh valuing Tyler Algier maybe around or even two higher than he’s going out there because Algier is useful in his own right because he gets touchdowns. Um but I mean he could he could be a league winner. Not to keep this all about fantasy football. I know we we’ve centered around it a lot with this conversation, but um definitely would be my advice to round out this conversation on the running backs. From a football perspective, this is about as good as it gets in terms of making a positive impact on the run game. Not so much though, as we mentioned with the quarterback run multiplier there ranking near the bottom of the league, 22nd to 28th with a basically C nonfactor grade from Michael Penn. that’s more of a usage deal with him with his injury record. Um they just I I don’t think they are going to put a priority on getting Pennocks involved in the run game even if he has the wheels to do it. But let’s finish up the offense with the offensive line. Pretty damn familiar group here in Atlanta with just the center swapping out. Um but even then Ryan Nutell played and started half of this team’s games last year. So continuity always good for these offensive lines and this is a very good offensive line ranking 12th for me overall. A little bit lower in pass blocking. Um so so they’re a B-grade for overall offensive line but a B minus grade for pass blocking B+ in run blocking. Um the pass blocking grade gets them 13th to 14th and run blocking gets them sixth in the league. So much closer towards the top of the league with this group as run blockers. But let’s go through them. So, you got Jake Matthews at left tackle, franchise left tackle. Feels like he’s been one of the more consistent overall players now for like a decade. Uh, just in terms of like what you see is what you get. He did actually have a career year in pass blocking efficiency last year. So, we’ll give him some credit for that. But to be fair, when you’re going up against Carolina and that edge group twice a year, New Orleans and that edge group twice a year, we’ve already done them in this deep dive series. That wasn’t pretty. And Tampa actually really struggled off the edge last year. I think that’s probably why he had a career year in pass blocking efficiency at 33 years old for a guy that has really just been steady Eddie throughout his career. Um, so I feel very good about him being kind of a borderline top 10 pass protector. He’s he’s more of a smaller guy, so like occasionally he can get overwhelmed by the best athlete edge rushers um on the perimeter, but for the most part, his technique and um enough play strength makes him top 10ish as a pass blocking left tackle, which is obviously a huge asset. He is the best asset they have in pass protection. Um and then as a run blocker, again, not the biggest enforcer, but he is an athlete and has been a good fit for this wide zone run game. So, you know what you’re getting at Jake in Jake Matthews at left tackle. At left guard, Matthew Berseron has had very steady development. Everything you would look to see for from a second round athlete um making a transition inside, played tackle at Syracuse, but he and that athleticism and his his like um straight up just mentality as a run blocker. You love to see that. uh he has really come into his own as a run blocker and as a pass blocker he’s settled in as well. He takes his losses. He’s very weak to weak in that sense, but the final picture was solid in terms of pressures allowed and everything and much better than his rookie season. So, I think he’s getting there. He’s he is heading towards like a very nice payday and being a very good guard for this team. I’m not going to say he doesn’t have like Pro Bowl upside um just because all the traits are technically in there, but if nothing else, like you feel very good about his projection now heading into year three. Uh at center, Ryan Nel, this is going to be the big question mark. Um even though he did play and start half of their games last year, I’m not going to say he was great. It was good enough that they felt like, yeah, let’s bring him back on kind of a one-year, $3 million deal or so. uh enough that they were willing to let Drew Dolman go. Uh they have quietly been a bit of a factory at this center position where they they’ve been this wide zone run game for so long that they know that their play action game is going to protect smaller centers in pass protection by keeping defensive tackles moving east and west and then you can always help them on double teams in the drop back game. And then they want to leverage that athleticism to be a good reach blocker in the run game. And Ryan Nutell is very much in that breath, but just not quite as athletic as a guy like Drew Dolman was. So, I don’t know that he’s going to be quite as good as Dolman was in that phase where Dolman was genuinely top three in run blocking for wide zone specific centers. I I just don’t know that Nutell quite has that in him, but there were a lot of good run blocking reps in there on tape. Um, I think the mentality is there and Nutell does even have a he’s a little bit bigger than a Drew Dolman, 6’2, 305 versus 6’3 300. So, it’s a subtle difference um but a little bit more um bulk and potentially even more uh from a pass blocking perspective in terms of the anchor. Um but for the most part, I think they’re going to be just fine. you don’t want him left one-on-one as a pass blocker, but I I think for the most part, this scheme does a good job working around that. Um, and then at right guard, Chris Lindstöm, perennial Pro Bowl caliber player. Now, I do think we have certainly seen that he hasn’t really developed as a pass blocker. like he’s not a problem in pass protection, but he does certainly lose for a guy that has been kind of pencileled in as a perennial pro bowler and um someone that is viewed maybe as the best guard in football. I certainly wouldn’t say he’s top 10 from a pass blocking perspective. Now, he is inarguably the best run blocking guard in football, especially getting to live in this world where he’s he’s just been a wide zone run blocker for the most part. The Falcons been one of the most wide zone run game heavy teams in the league now for multiple years and he is he is the best at that. He’s crazy athletic. Uh just has such a good feel for that. Um there’s an awareness side to it where you got to kind of keep that backside hand on on a guy as you’re kind of riding the wave. But knowing when to climb up and then having the athleticism and the targeting system to find linebackers and safeties even, he he just is so so good at it. So, I think you got to at least note that, yeah, he’s a superstar and maybe even the best guard in football, but from a pass blocking angle, um, he’s he’s good. He has athleticism. He’s got strong hands, but he he does not have the best anchor and even at times like he’ll miss with his strikes and just have these ugly losses at times. I think Falcons fans that watch closely would even admit that. So, he’s far from a perfect player. Um, but he is the best member of this very good offensive line. Um, and then at right tackle you have Caleb McGary who he himself has found uh, how should I put this? M maybe what he’s best at and that is that run block that wide zone run blocking system. Um, I think his length and he’s a pretty good athlete when he gets out on the move specifically to wide zone run blocking. he has found a really good fit um in that ability to get on the move and seal off that edge. But um for a while like he kind of struggled to block north and south to get up and under guys pads. He can fall off of blocks if you’re doing a little bit more inside zone and and do a gap center run game. And likewise, he just isn’t that great of a pass protector. He’s very average for a starting tackle. Um, you know, he’s he’s come along in that sense. His technique’s pretty good, but he doesn’t anchor all that well. He doesn’t have much sand in the pants, and I know we praised his length. Um, that comes more from his height and a lot of size on the perimeter to seal that edge, but he he doesn’t actually have great arm length in terms of those tight quarters uh against power rushers with longer arms. Just 32 and 78 inch hand uh arms for Caleb and Gary. So you do see power rushers get up under his chest and he can get driven backwards. So like a lot of these offensive linemen are, you know, better in certain scheme fits or certain phases of their game. The the entire picture comes together for a very good offensive line. But it is a group that I think kind of they are at their best when they live in this wide zone Shanahan style offense where you’re you’re running east and west tapping into their athleticism, not necessarily with the size um to drive defenses north and south. Um and a group that like they’re they’re okay in pass protection. These are these are tough dudes. They’re good athletes, but um it’s it’s certainly not an impenetrable wall uh in terms of buying time for Michael Penn, but it is it is still above average. Again, um a B minus grade for pass blocking, which does rank 13th to 14th in that side of things. Now, as far as the depth goes, Storm Norton has been just a diminished version of Caleb McGary in that he’s a lengthy tackle uh that is a pretty solid athlete who has uh been a good run blocker in this system and a pretty poor pass blocker. So, just take everything we said about Caleb McGary and turn that down about 20 30%, but as a backup for that specific player, Storm Norton is okay. Uh Jack Nelson, they draft in the seventh round out of Wisconsin, six foot seven himself. Like they have a type at right tackle for sure. Um Brandon Parker is another backup here. He’s played a little bit. He has not played well, but he started, I think, two full seasons for the Raiders until they eventually woke up and replaced him, but he does have some experience. And then you got your developmental types competing for roster spots after that. Overall, pretty standard depth for tackle. Um, and then at guard, okay, you got Elijah Wilkinson who’s played a decent amount of time for this team. He’s a balanced fit for this team as a backup option. He’s, you know, you’re not going to feel great with him in there, but you could do worse. It could be guys like Kyle Hinton and Jovon Gwyn, who are your next up. Uh, Gwyn would be the backup center. I just I did not see it with him coming out of South Carolina. I thought he had really play strength. So, maybe he’s bulked up. Uh, maybe not. Um, and then Kyle Hinton has played on and off a little bit. Um, but I would say it’s like average to slightly below average depth, but certainly nobody you’re excited about stepping in if you have injuries. So, another group you certainly want to see kept healthy. Still though, a good offensive line that especially for the scheme that they run is an asset and rounds out an overall offense that we should feel pretty confident in this season. So, as I like to remind people, we’re ranking these teams damn near at their floor. And even with unproven commodities on this team being Michael Penn at quarterback, this young coaching staff with Zack Robinson in command and maybe a little bit of Ryan Nutell being the unproven commodity at center, even with some still pretty big questions and and areas of this team that need to prove themsel. The Falcons offense does come in as my 17th ranked offense heading into the year. 22nd in passing game. Obviously, if Michael Pennix is good, they’re going to shatter that. But they do head into the year ranked eighth in run game, and that very well could end up being low as well. I mean, hell, they were fifth in run game DVOA on offense last year. Um, but obviously losing one of the best run blocking centers for your system dings that down just a little bit and we’ll see what Ryan Nutell can do there. But with that all said, yeah, Michael Pennock started three games last year and he’s an unproven commodity as we head into next season. That’s understandable. But I think you get the sense that I’m pretty damn optimistic for what this Falcons offense can accomplish this year. And I even understand if you think the 23rd ranking as we start the season is too low on the Falcons. I can even understand that because of those high expectations. But as we transition to this defense, this is the core reason why the Falcons rank 23rd here. And I have very serious questions with this side of the ball. Let’s get into those questions. And it starts on the defensive line which is right next to frankly Michael Pennix in terms of being just a massive wildcard X factor for this team that is going to be a huge part of determining the final success of this Falcons team and maybe even if Raheem Morris keeps his job through this season. And I say that because I have the Falcons defensive line ranked dead last in the league. 32nd bad in both phases. C minus grades across the board. 31st to 32nd in pass rush tied with just the Carolina Panthers. Um and 30th to 31st in Dline run defense as well. But there is a lot of youth here, especially in the edge group. And there is unlike a lot of the offensive positions at least a lot of depth and names to discuss here. But whether any of these guys are going to be difference-making starters for this team is entirely up in the air. And I think the two guys that they are hoping at least one of them could be a differencemaking player as early as this season are your two rookie edge rushers. So let’s discuss both Jaylen Walker and James Pierce. We’ll start with Jaylen Walker who was the first of the first round picks here. Hometown product out of Georgia. Always fun. And I was lower on Jaylen Walker as a draft prospect. I thought especially all of the top 10 uh hype that he got. This idea that the Carolina Panthers especially were like locked in on taking him number nine. There were moments where there were rumors that the Jaguars were in on him with like the number five pick, which never made sense to me. If he went in the top 10, those are just like different levels of expectations. That to me just did not line up with how I felt about Jaylen Walker, who to me is a really special athlete. Did some really special stuff in certain rushing looks, especially as a blitzing linebacker in Georgia’s system that it just makes evaluating their edge rushers and linebackers especially, it just makes evaluating those guys so challenging. But when Walker was used in sort of that Micah Parsonsesque look where he’s going over guards and centers um and just acting as this kind of chess piece mismatch uh rush player. He was awesome. He has an incredible first step. He’s a shorter player so he can, you know, get low. He’s got bend. He’s got a rip move. He’s got awesome strength in his core. He’s got these massive strong arms that as he pushes back up on these guards trying to uh get their hands on him, he’s able to keep them off of him. So, he’s got a rip move um that just destroys guards. But the problem is we didn’t really see that rip move show up when he lined up as an edge rusher going up against tackles that are much more physically equipped and much more used to going up against this sort of build and athlete. I think he can win with a rip move against tackles, but I don’t think that alone is going to make him worth a first round pick. You are really counting on, if you’re going to get that type of return, you’re really counting on number one him getting better at placing the bull rush because at his size, he he does have flashes with the bull rush when he connects. You can see the pop in his hands. As you can see, his ability to convert speed to power, but his technique with the bull rush does drastically need to improve, which isn’t a huge surprise. The dude played half his snaps as just an offball linebacker in Georgia’s stupid system. So, he just doesn’t have the time on task to develop the proper first step to consistently land his hands to mix up his hand usage so that tackles um can’t win that first uh first punch and and set the rules of engagement on him, especially as a guy that does have shorter hands. I think mixing in more ghost moves and a variety of different strikes is going to be useful for him. Not to mention just actually having other pass rush moves that tackles have to account for because you watch his edge tape and they knew the ball rush was coming and it was very hit or miss for all the reasons we just said. So you want to see Walker develop inside counters, maybe a cross chop, break out some euro steps. There’s just so much more technique and gamesy uh gamesmanship that can be brought out in Jaylen Walker, but it does need to get brought out. And how many of these freaky edge rush prospects over the last five years, whether it’s Trayvon Walker out of his own school, Miles Murphy, Tyrie Wilson, I mean, how many how many guys do we have to rattle off there? this is the type of ath athlete um he doesn’t have the size and length profile of a lot of these other prospects but this is kind of the general idea that teams are swinging for is if you’re going to be a great pass rusher you got to be a great athlete and that is true but you also need the technique and so many of these first round guys are drafted off of the athleticism I mean Leonard Floyd another Georgia prospect now with this team it’s been a lot of the same with him too a top 10 draft pick that never really figured figured the rest of it out. That growth simply needs to come with Jaylen Walker as he presumably makes more of a switch to a full-time edge role. Now, the ability to line up over guards and do that kind of stuff, that’s going to translate as a blitz package rusher. I don’t think you draft just that role 15th in the draft and that’s why they’re going to play him a lot off the edge, but that should at least be mentioned that yeah, he can do that and we’ll see if Raheem Morris finds the right way to scheme him into that linebacker room to be determined there, right? Like like I said, I don’t have a tremendous amount of confidence that he’s going to know the right way to use Trayen uh uh Jaylen Walker. Um but we’ll see. it it would there is a lot of potential there for like Jaylen Walker, maybe Leonard Floyd and James Pierce to all be out there together, but we’ll see. That’s not really consistent with what they did last year. And then the other thing with Jaylen Walker is he’s not a good run defender. He doesn’t have the length um and he doesn’t have a lot of time on task playing the run on early downs, but his tape as a rundefending linebacker was quite poor. his diagnostics and ability to get off blocks was really underwhelming. That’s why he’s a defensive line prospect um or at least an edge outside backer. And even when he dropped into coverage, I didn’t think he knew what he was looking at. In theory, Jaylen Walker can be um a weapon with his athletic ability and linebacker experience in a lot of these different blitz packages off the edge where they drop that edge rusher into coverage. In theory, Walker should be pretty good at that, but even then, there wasn’t a lot of promise outside of just his athleticism when he did play in coverage. So, he’s a complete project and a complete projection out of that Georgia system. He is really the ultimate question mark young wild card where there is upside here. You don’t find a lot of guys that have this much explosiveness and power packed into his frame, but you gota you got to be able to tap into it with with skill as well. So, we will see what we can get from him. That’s the evaluation on him. Now, we can watch him as a pro player and see if this was a case of misutilization in college and NFL development. That’s what you’re obviously hoping for if you’re a Falcons fan. But your other rookie is actually someone that from a football evaluation I liked more. Now a big reason why James Pierce was available in the 20s to begin with is there were we at least have to bring it up because why he was available to begin with. There’s a lot of questions about his sort of football character. Whatever that means to you. That was the narrative that was out on him. Whether it’s practice behavior or how he interacts with the coaches. There was something there. there. That is inarguable because this was a top 10 talent if that wasn’t there, but that was something that was discussed on him for months and it leads to the fall into the 20s and here we are. I don’t really know what to think about that. It’s just kind of sitting there on the back burner like, okay, he had questions about his football character. Let’s see what that means for his NFL career. Um, but as far as the football evaluation goes, loved James Pierce. And as I said in the intro, I actually don’t mind this team who’s been so deprived of edge rush talent. I actually don’t mind them double dipping at the edge going up to get this player. As you can see, it’s not like they had anyone else that they were counting on. Um, so yeah, go take if you think next year you might have to draft another edge rusher in the first round, go get a 21-year-old and start his development plan in your defense right now. Why not? So with Pierce, what I always say about him is he understands how to win in every way that you can ask an edge rusher to. He’s got a great first step. He has speed and bend around the corner. That’s with the 44 speed. That’s what people are going to bring up first with him is his ability to threaten that corner and force tackles to have those power sets and explode um to the corner. It’s a big threat for James Pierce, but a lot of guys like a Leonard Floyd for example or Vic Beasley with the Falcons, a lot of guys that’s all they have. With James Pierce, I think he at least even if he doesn’t have this tremendous package of rush moves, he at least understands the core art of rushing the passer where there’s there’s really four ways to beat a tackle. You can just go true speed to bend around the corner. You can win to the outside shoulder. you can win to the inside shoulder with swipes and chops and rip moves. And then there’s the bull rush where you can go through the tackle. And James Pierce at least understands that because he’s got that big threat of the speed rush, tackles are going to set hard and set wide and then he can mix in a baseline of moves to win to those other three areas. So he has swipes that work well for him. He’s really good at keeping tackles hands off of him. So, he can kind of win that outside shoulder. He can win the inside shoulder on swipe moves. We’ve seen that a lot. I think there’s a ton of potential for him to develop a spin move. He’s a little bit tighter of an athlete, but I think there’s potential in there for that to develop. But he also can convert speed to power. For a 245 lb edge defender, he’s got a bull rush. Um, and it’s not just like there were some times where he would he would have those explosive dynamite hands and blow up his man. Um, but he he had impressive play strength considering that listed uh size and considering he’s such a putrid run defender. I was actually impressed by his ability to latch his arms on and have that more steady drive uh as a power rusher as well. A lot of these undersized guys Yeah. you you know you think of like Hassan Reic for example. Reick can win with a bull rush, but it’s it’s when he uncoils and blows the guy up. Usually if if the tackle’s ready for it and he sets his hands first, that rep’s over with a guy that size. James Pierce at 245 pounds. Even if he doesn’t destroy you right away, I did see him actually compress the pocket with a little bit of natural power in there, too. Um and he’s a young guy, he can always bulk up, too. So, I I’m a huge fan of James Pierce, the prospect. Again, I think he should have been a top 10 talent. The idea that Jaylen Walker was was always kind of projected top 10 and James Pierce wasn’t did not line up with my evaluation. Both these guys have potential, but very different prospects as well. I think you can tell I’m actually more excited about James Pierce. I I wasn’t able to interview him, you know, in a private setting. So, maybe there is more to his character stuff than I was able to tell. But, um, that was my evaluation on those guys. And now we get to go see where this goes. Obviously, just like I said with Michael Penn, unproven talent. They’re not going to come in ranked that high, but with this sort of potential, there is a chance that these are closer to impact players. And even if the Falcons pass rush could just be 22nd in the league, that’s a dramatic step up from where we have them right now. And that’s going to go a long way towards this defense getting to where certainly Raheem Morris wants it to be and maybe needs it to be if he’s going to save his job this year. But let’s keep it with the edge group and then we’ll go to the interior. So, this is definitely going to be a rotation of starters. We started with those two rookies because I I do think those guys are the leading snapgetters. Um, but they’re also the most important and interesting to talk about. But it’s going to be pretty close, I think, with both Leonard Floyd and Arnold Ebocati getting on the field a a good bit here for sure, especially if they do want to use Jaylen Walker in a bit of a rush linebacker role. You would see Floyd and Ebac uh step in as the edge in those formations most likely. But I view these guys pretty damn close. Uh, and they’re both, you know, both in different stages of their career, respectively. Leonard Floyd definitely getting up there in age, 32 years old, you know, a couple years ago, about 30 years old. He had a career year with the Bills, but that went away very quickly after he went to San Francisco last year. So, he’s useful with his bend and um still at his age like fluid athletic ability. He is useful as something that we need to start talking about with this Falcons defensive line. Um Raheem Morris very much is looking at what the Rams have done with his defense. I think especially as the year went on, you saw the Falcons running a lot more twists and games, which the Rams have become kind of infamous for that, running those ETE stunts. And Leonard Floyd is still very useful for that where you can take a Morgan Fox, for example, being this team’s version of a Braden Fisk and say, “Hey, Morgan Fox, go straight in between the guard and the tackle, blow those guys up, and then we’re going to loop in a Leonard Floyd or a Jaylen Walker in behind those guys because they got a great first step and bend to wrap into that hole before the guard can adjust and cut that guy off.” Floyd also did his fair share of that with Raheem Morris, with the Rams 2021, 2022. So, there’s a lot of familiarity there. He’s he’s got length and can defend the run, but um he actually turns 33 here in a couple months. So, like he’s getting up there in age. They gave him a one-year $10 million deal before the draft happened and um he’s going to be a rotational piece that they kind of know what they’re getting, but not a one-on-one winner and not really an impact player at all. Arnold Deati has stalled out, I believe. Um, you know, he was a second round pick. Ultimately, a guy that he’s he’s a solid player. He he he’s a higheffort dude. He’s tough. Um, he’s kind of crafty as a rusher, but certainly like lacks a lot of those traits. There’s a reason guys like Jaylen Walker and James Pierce go in the first round. It’s because of the Arnold Aadies of the world where it’s like, yeah, there’s a lot of stuff he does well, but is he a dominant player? No. And he’s probably stalled out at that. But he’s certainly a useful dude and now he doesn’t have to be like the guy you’re hanging your hat on. Right now he can be a nice edge three. He falls into a nice role there. I like that. Um so he’s going to play. And then you have Brillin Trice who it kind of feels like they’re giving up on with signing Floyd and drafting these two guys early, but he’s going to have an opportunity to show what he can do. Um Trice I thought had a good bull rush coming out of Washington. another guy that just doesn’t have all of those traits and is probably never going to be a real starting caliber guy that you feel good about. Um, someone that I thought really needed to improve his run defense coming out of Washington if he was going to settle in as a nice kind of rotational edge three. If he can do that, I think you can get something like an Arnold, different styles, but caliber of player, it’s possible for Brilland Trace to turn into that. So definitely keep an eye on him to emerge as more quality depth though they don’t need him to. D’Angelo Malone, a Tracy dude that just has not developed here. I don’t even know if he’s going to make the team at this point. And then Khaled Kareem as well is one of the better run defenders in this edge group because James Pierce barely did that at Tennessee. Jaylen Walker is a question mark. Basically learning how to defend the run off the edge. Floyd and Ebati don’t have a ton of size. Wouldn’t be s surprised if Khaled Kareem actually made this team and ate up a decent amount of snaps as kind of a a hard five technique to play some run defense. But obviously an edge group that is fully contingent on the success of their rookie first rounders. Then the interior is much more straightforward in that you mostly know what you’re getting from these guys, especially your two core starters, David Anyada and Morgan Fox. Um, so David Anyada is also way older than I thought. He turns 33 this season as well. And that’s totally like the sneaky part of this defensive line that makes this unit such a wild card. Not just do you have the young guys that you don’t quite know what you’re going to get at this point in time, but you you have on the the opposite end of their career, David Anya, Morgan Fox, and Leonard Floyd all on the wrong side of 30 guys that have shown some regression. How hard does that age regression hit those guys? That’s also a question mark literally on the reverse end of the the rookie conversation. So, it’s a just the biggest of wild cards with this whole unit. Um but yeah, David David Anyad has been such a steady DT um in the NFL. He’s a good two-way player. He’s got power, he’s got quickness, everything you look for in just a good three down defensive tackle. And in his first year with the Falcons in 2023, he was able to give the Falcons that that kind of 35 pressure, you know, five sack season and good run defense as kind of a ideally this would be the third or fourth best piece on your defensive line. Last year, he took a step down from that. He actually only had 19 pressures and three sacks. You did see some flashes in there as a rusher. Still not a bad run defender, but frankly, we give him a 77 rating here. that’s probably not the level he played at last season. If he is just what he was last year or worse, you’re talking about him being more of a kind of replacement level starter or adequate starter type of guy and less of a kind of impact player. So, the age and the regression with him is real. He’s on the last year of his deal as well. And for those looking at the graphic, he’s the only green on the screen. Again, you might not get that green from him, if you will. Um, but then you got Morgan Fox next to him. They give him a kind of cheap two-year deal. Uh, and he’s a a pass rush specialist kind of tweener type. He’s 6’3, 275 lbs, which like that’s going to have its pros and cons, right? If you want to run all of these twists and stunts, like that is that is what Morgan Fox does. He is there to run ET stunts. Um, but unfortunately you can’t just use him when the stunt is coming or the opposing offensive line’s going to figure that out pretty damn quick. So, he does ultimately have to number one be out there for some run defense snaps. Um, and he is a problem. I mean, he’s he’s he’s basically an edge rusher in size having to take on double teams a lot of times and that can get really really ugly. that is going to be a massive drop off in Dline run defense from the Grady Jarrett playing a lot of those snaps last year where Jarrett’s still pretty good at that. So, that’s that’s a drawback in his game. And he’s also a guy that like if you’re asking him to win one-on-one as a rusher, he’s fallen off. Uh he already wasn’t great at that. He’s got a decent bull rush. He can cross your face from time to time. He’s okay in that sense, but he’s not dominant for an undersized guy. So, for him to be kind of your second best interior defensive lineman, that’s just not a good place to be. You want Morgan Fox to be someone that you rotate into specific packages for very specific looks, not in the role that the Falcons are are going to kind of need him to step up into. Um, and there’s one player that maybe can uh reach a point where you don’t have to ask as much of Morgan Fox and you can let Morgan Fox be in more of his natural role. There’s one player there that you’re holding out hope for and that’s Ruka Rooro. And look, I’m not ready to take victory laps on my draft grades, my draft takes here into year two. Like I said, there’s there’s still intrigue and hope that maybe he can step into a starting role, but Jesus, man, considering they traded up to get him 35th in the draft, those are damn near first round draft pick expectations. And we’re talking about a guy that is a 23-year-old rookie, was a healthy scratch for the first month of the season, played 150 snaps total on the year, um was loosely banged up, but but it was not injury related really why he didn’t play. He ends up getting in eight games. Uh just five pressures on over a 100 pass rush snaps. That’s not going to cut it. Was not an impact against the run. He was essentially a lost cause in his rookie season. Still worth keeping an eye on because this is the regime that drafted him highly. He’s an athletic dude. But the reason I thought this was such an egregious overdraft was 5 years at Clemson. There wasn’t really a pass rushing plan. There wasn’t a high level of production. There wasn’t a lot of great tape on him. It was just flashes of athleticism. He’s tough. It’s not that it’s like an effort thing, but he just needs to figure out how to play the position at a much higher level. So, you’re attaching hope to him because of the draft pedigree, but that’s really it. But, it’s certainly scary that he’s really the only like actual technically defensive tackle left. Like, this is a this is a horribly undersized group. I mean, Zack Harrison was a college edge rusher. I actually like what Zack Harrison did in this defense as that kind of fourey defensive end role. Um, when they get into penny fronts, 5-1 fronts where they want to play a base 3, four, I think he played that base end pretty well considering he was more of a college edge player. Um, and he, you know, he brought some play strength and length to the table there. But like that’s a role specific kind of maxed out version of Zack Harrison, I think. um as kind of a tweener. You know, tweeners do have a limited upside and that’s where Zach Harrison falls. Um and Harrison would run into the same issue if you did have to ask him to play three technique in your base fronts or base nickel fronts rather. When are we going to get used to just calling nickel base? Like come on. Um, but anyway, in looks where you have two interior defensive linemen, Zach Harrison is not really practical in in those looks. They do have Taequin Graham. He’s okay. They bring him back in like a one-year $2 million deal. Uh, and until Rrook takes any sort of step forward, Taquan Graham is your second best rundefending true interior player. He’s another though kind of undized guy. He’s about 295 pounds. Um, Contavius Street is a he’s he’s Morgan Fox turned down. He’s another guy that’s like 275 pounds and plays a very specific um pass rush downs role. He’s shown a little bit more defending the run as an edge player at times, but that’s not really how this scheme works for Street to show that. Brandon Doris was drafted in the fourth round. Another guy that could not get on the field as a rookie, another tweener with athleticism. And then Lale London is actually a nose tackle that damn well might have to play here because they just don’t have a guy that can um eat up double teams other than David Anya. And even David Anya is like 305 lbs and and you know not as good at it as he once was. So, not only is this group highly questionable in terms of overall talent, but they’re tiny. And two years ago, this Falcons defense was actually pretty damn good at stopping the run. They took a step back last year with Raheem Morris coming in, and now you’re saying goodbye to Grady Jarrett, who’s really a presence against the run. I mean, Jesus, man. I I I fully understand wanting to get better as a pass rush and this team needed to do that. But it is there not a better way to build this defensive line in a way that you have guys that can actually help you get to third down? I I am very worried that this team is going to get gashed, especially with two 245 pound edge rushers now stepping in to start as rookies that weren’t highly touted run defenders coming out. Um, all right. I’m almost starting to question myself why I don’t have them ranked 32nd. Um, I guess we’ll see if that holds when we get to the team who currently holds my 32nd ranking for Dline run defense. But, um, yeah, entirely unproven with the rookie pass rushers, very thin against the run. A group that has a bunch of guys getting older. I’m a big Dline guy and this group especially is a reason why I think people are going to say I’m a little low on the Falcons. Um, but I think you can probably at least see my reasoning there. But let’s continue. Uh, the linebackers is another interesting conversation for the Falcons. It’s a it’s a solid group. I’m not really worried about this group. They don’t rank like terribly high. Um, they actually came in 25th for overall linebacker. That felt low to me, but then you look at it and you realize they’re not really great in any one area. I do think they got better in coverage because Nate Landman w was not good in that department. Um, and Diablo comes in. So, like they have a they have a solid enough floor ranking 23rd to 25th for linebacker coverage. And then they do come in 18th to 24th for linebacker run defense, but that’s another area where it’s like, all right, the run defense is actually taking another step back here because Landman was actually a really nice run defender for them. Um, Devon Diablo and the rest of these guys that are all going to be kind of in the mix here, not quite the level of a run defender that I think Lanman showed to be in Atlanta. But you do have gad Kaden Ellis who’s a very stabilizing force. He has really settled in as a good starting uh three down linebacker here for the Falcons after he came over from New Orleans where he was more of their LB3 in a very deep group. Um, but a lot of athleticism. This these Ellis brothers, we talked about, uh, his brother Christian for the Patriots, also a linebacker, but Jonah as well, a third round pick, edge rusher for the Broncos last year. Um, he can fly around, man. And, you know, from a coverage perspective, he he does have the speed to turn and run. He can get depth, but he actually still has he’s he’s missing some of that uh playmaking instincts and coverage feel. It was something watching uh the Falcons tape where I actually was a little bit underwhelmed if it was whether it was play action, him maybe taking the cheese a little bit too much with his aggressive mentality or even just dropping into a hook zone. Uh there were actually a lot of times where I I I wish he would have taken stuff away a little bit better. So, he’s he’s not a horrible coverage defender, but he’s he’s not a good one, per se. Run defense, though, he’s he’s good at it. Missed tackles showed up as a theme for him last year. 13% is below average. Um, and I think that leads to some questions whether or not he can clean that up if if he can be a great run defender for this team. I think tackling consistency is a big part of that. He was much better in 2023, almost half of that at 7.2%. 2%. Um, but his career rate going back to New Orleans was more of that double-digit percentage. So, that would be the one thing to keep an eye on. I think if he can improve, his miss tackle rate, you would view him as um even a a larger impact in the run defense than we’re painting him here. But he’s also a tremendous blitzer. He had 43 pressures and five sacks for this team last year, which we just talked about that defensive line and how bad they are. He actually led this team in pressures last year uh as a blitzing linebacker, which is just astonishing. And that’s where I’m very excited to see like how they want to use Jaylen Walker because they obviously were able to get Kaden Ellis going off of their blitzes. Jaylen Walker is just that ramped up even more. So, I did want to put him on the linebacker graphic here. Not because I think he plays linebacker really. It would really just be third down rushing packages. Um, but it could change Kaden Ellis’s usage a little bit. Maybe that does lead to him getting even better as a coverage defender because even going back to New Orleans, he was kind of this I don’t want to call him an edge guy, but he was kind of their strong side backer that wasn’t really worried about coverage. And even last year, like he just he he he was rushing the quarterback one out of five snaps when it was a coverage snap. So, more time on task as a coverage defender could help that side of his game, too. So, just all something to keep an eye on. It’s, you know, it’s interesting to view him as someone that could be getting a lot better at 30 years old, but that’s certainly possible, I guess. Not that I necessarily project it or I’m putting the up arrow on it, but it’s at least fascinating to have those conversations. Um, and then your real LB2 here. I I do expect that it’s going to be Divine Diablo. They give him a 2-year $14 million a year deal. So, it is starter money, but it’s not a ton of money. And that’s not so much money that if Troy Anderson, for example, who has traits for days, not that Diablo doesn’t, but Anderson now heading into year three is fascinating to me. And I didn’t think I was going to say that until I watched the film. and he was much better on tape than I was expecting to see, especially that New Orleans game, which was the last game he got to play healthy last year. And honestly, that’s what makes this really interesting is um it’s it’s been health for Anderson has been his biggest drawback. I mean, he was very raw coming out, one of these athletic, developmental second round linebackers. Um, but you know, 44 speed at his size and the highlights that he can he can make. Like there’s intrigue in his upside, but he missed a ton of time in his rookie season. Missed a lot of time last year. That’s where I think they signed Diablo because they’re like, man, we don’t know if Anderson can stay healthy. We need to have an LB2 out there for us. But if Anderson is healthy, I don’t know that they wouldn’t give him an opportunity to start, especially because what he did in the last game he got to play was was unreal. Like I’m now a third of the way grinding tape for these teams. Haven’t watched any of Rocoan or Fred Warner, so that’s gonna be something to consider here. Um, but the game Troy Anderson had against the Saints is the best linebacker game I’ve seen in I don’t know what, 20, 25 games of tape study, something like that. That feels notable at least. So, yeah, it’s probably Divine Diablo and Falcons fans might tell me it’s not a position battle. Um, but I’m I’m at least going to throw it up there and say, you know, I if Anderson looks healthy and looks great, I don’t think that would stop Atlanta from starting Anderson over Diablo or at least making it a rotation to see where it goes because Diablo, I think we know what he is at this point. To be fair, I always say these second contract athletes at the linebacker position are always worth picking up. And there is certainly a world where, you know, things are really starting to click with him at age 26, 27, which is the sweet spot for a lot of these kind of mid-ranging third, fourth round linebacker types. So, yeah, there there is a hidden upside with Diablo as there is with a lot of linebackers his age. Um, but Diablo also doesn’t have the like positive trajectory. The last two years have just been very unsubstantial for his time in Las Vegas for a guy that played safety in college. I mean, he has two pass breakups in the last two seasons as a starter and zero last season. So, like he’s just not able to get around the football as much. Um, he’s just missing a little bit of something. He is a smaller guy as well, so the run defense side of things is never going to be a great strength for him. is a little bit more limited in terms of his frame in that way. Um, and mist tackle showed up as an issue in a way that they weren’t so much in previous seasons. So, the Raiders just kind of were like, we’re ready to let you go. And I think it’s it’s pretty unlikely that he’s going to have that kind of second contract breakout that a lot of these linebackers have. Um, and that’s another reason I think Anderson probably has more upside at at this point in his career. So, we’ll keep an eye on that. I I do think ultimately whoever wins that battle, you can feel pretty good about the L LB2 spot. And if Anderson wins it, there’s a lot of potential there for him to actually be a bit of a superstar. I mean, his traits, the the sky is the limit for him physically speaking. And I loved what we saw from him in his last performance. Um, you do have JD Bertrand as depth. I liked JD Bertrand coming out always, you know, with the understanding that he’s probably just an LB3 type, hence why they signed Devine Diablo. Um, but he’s got instincts. He’s tough. He made some good plays stepping in for this team last year. Good day three pick as a specialteamer and a backup linebacker. Um, Josh Woods has played, that’s the nicest thing I can say about Josh Woods. And then you got some undrafted types. Caleb Johnson is on this Falcons team, by the way, guys. not the star running back out of Iowa, a different one. Um, but yeah, there’s your linebacker room. It’s not going to make or break this defense in my opinion. They got bodies. I think the floor is perfectly reasonable here. And as we saw with that defensive line, they’ve got bigger fish to fry in terms of investing in a position group and getting better at a position group. Um, but there’s there’s certainly upside with this room to finish uh higher than 25th. No doubt, particularly with Troy Anderson, I think would be the maybe the wild card there. But let’s go to the secondary. At least Atlanta has something to hang their hat on with this defense. And it is this secondary that’s very stable. They have some good depth across the board. Um, really no complaints about this Falcons secondary. They come in with a B+ grade, ranking fifth to 11th. So, kind of sniffing top five with this secondary and I think we can keep this conversation a little bit shorter um because it is such a stable unit and a and a pretty damn familiar unit from where they were at last year. You got AJ Terrell who’s every bit a number one corner. I don’t think he’s been able to kind of recapture his early career hype and kind of get himself into like top five consistency at this position and into those types of debates. But he’s well compensated. He’s a he’s an awesome number one corner. can do everything. Um, loves to hit sometimes will dip his head and misses too many tackles at times. That’s maybe the biggest criticism on AJ Terrell. Beyond that, it’s just like, yeah, just like most corners, he does have some down games in a way that your premium top five corners avoid more often. That’s really the only negative note I have on him. But I love AJ Terrell. Definition of a number one corner in my opinion. your other corners like they’re fine. They’re solid. I would say these are the guys that are keeping the Falcons firmly outside of the top five is I do think you can kind of pick on these guy like pick on is let’s say you can go at these guys maybe not pick on Dford and Mike Hughes but you can go at them and find some success. Uh you do wish you had better players at CB2 and your nickel corner. D. Alfred showed a lot of promise out the gate as an undrafted pickup. He’s got a lot of twitch. Um, but his lack of size shows up. He gets out physicalled at the catch point. Um, he hasn’t been always in the right place in terms of coverage, but you do see it in run defense and against bigger slot guys. Like, he just has his limitations with his size. But, he’s a nice player. I like his athleticism and his coverage feel for the most part. Um, Mike Hughes earned a second contract with Atlanta here. Journeyman, CB2 type. He can play a little slot, play outside. He’s fine. Definition of a fine kind of band-aid starter for a team. I’ve shifted more and more towards comparing corners to kind of like batting average with baseball in terms of like reception percentage and stuff. Mike Hughes is like your seven hitter that’s going to hit 250. And in football terms, that’s, you know, about a 65% reception allowed percentage. You can go at him. He’ll stop you sometimes. More often than not, you’ll be able to beat him. That’s kind of average starter CB2 territory. Now, you do also have Clark Phillips, who I I don’t know quite how much he’s going to play um just because Mike Hughes did kind of take, you know, these guys were kind of duking it out. Mike Hughes emerged, but Clark Phillips played well, too. He’s he’s got a little bit more I think playmaking instincts in this offzone system. Um if Mike Hugh starts to struggle, they will go to Clark Phillips as an outside corner. Absolutely. And I think Phillips has shown like a Darius Williams, you know, similar in this Rams system that even though he’s a smaller guy, he’s actually played better as an outside guy in an off zone style system. So, I like Clark Phillips, his size, his lack of long speed, like more limited physical traits, but as a as a CB 3.5, that’s actually really good depth. And he can be slot depth as well. Um, I think Hughes and Clark Phillips can both step in and play the slot. So, you’re very kind of um really just deep and flexible if and when injuries happen. Corners get hurt all the time. So, that I like that flexibility. And then Billy Bowman, they see him as a slot corner. Uh definitely not a guy you’re going to be sticking outside, I don’t think. Um but I’m interested to see how this goes. You know, Billy Billy Bowman was fun. Really instinctive and twitchy coverage defender, but as a safety, you know, I like what the Falcons are doing here because his tackling was so impractical and he’s smaller for a safety. He’s he’s under 5’10”, 5 um like 59 and 3/4 and 194 lbs. There’s just not a ton of safeties playing at that size having success in the NFL, especially for a guy that had the tackling issues that he had. But at least from a like physical standpoint, that’s much more average size for an NFL slot corner. He’s still going to have to learn how to tackle. But if he can clean that up, I I’m at least interested to see how this goes. And he he honestly makes more sense as a fourthrounder and a slot corner prospect in a draft that did not have many good slot corners uh than he he would as a a safety to me. So I’m at least interested to see where it goes. I I don’t think he’s going to pass up D. Alford and Clark Phillips in his rookie season playing a position that he’s kind of learning for the first time. But as a dart throw on a guy with traits and instincts, maybe 2026 could be interesting for him. Mike Ford’s more of a special teamer, and that’s probably going to be your six in the quarterback room. But then you go to safety, and I I think Jesse Bates is the best safety in the NFL. I I do. I think there’s just nobody that really does what he does in the NFL right now, and that is play free safety at an elite level in every phase. Like, there’s there’s so many free safeties that you watch play after play after play. And it’s like, yeah, you’re being asked to stay deeper than the deepest. They want you to be conservative as a um in run defense. Like don’t trigger overaggressively, don’t take bad angles, square guys up as a tackler. But Jesse Bates plays as much cover three as any safety in the league as we talked about and does so without without being too far on either side of the spectrum because there’s other free safeties. Think of like Jaylen Bullock for the um Texans in his rookie season. Not to pick on him, but he’s an example of a guy that’s like all aggressiveness and you get some exciting plays, but there’s a really low end of allowing explosive plays on the far end of that. Jesse Bates has that balance where you don’t get the negative side of things like like yeah, there’s a reason so many defensive coordinators just say, “Hey, if you’re rotating free safety, like just stay deeper than the deepest and play conservative.” But Jesse Bates gives you that and some of the best, if not the best playmaking ability from this position. He just has such a good understanding back there of risk management, when to bait quarterbacks, when to, you know, collapse down on these posts and dig routes when he like he just understands when there isn’t a route developing behind him to go do something about it. Whereas so many safeties just stand there and wait for something to happen. Um he does this he plays this position I wish so many other safeties were allowed to play like and and they allow him to be Jesse Bates which is great. Um yes there are safeties like Brian Branch and Kyle Hamilton whose defenses allow him to be around the ball much more often playing in the nickel or from a strong safety line. And yeah, you’re going to end up with more pass breakups and more tackles and more opportunities for highlight plays. Um, but for Jesse Bates to be able to still give you a fair share of that and give you multiple games a year at this point where it feels like he is swinging the outcome of games by jumping these plays on the back end while also not costing you games with busted coverages and overaggressiveness and bad angles. That to me is why Jesse Bates is the best, most valuable safety in the game, at least as an actual safety, like a deep safety. There’s different types of safeties. Jesse Bates is not the best box safety in the NFL. He doesn’t have the size to be that type of guy, but he has been just such a tremendous addition by the Falcons. And I I will end this by just shaming the Bengals. you couldn’t find $16 million a year to pay this guy. What a freaking steal. And if Jesse Bates is not asking for a raise, I don’t know what he and his agent are doing because I mean, you just saw Trayvon Merig in this division get more than you’re getting paid. Cam Binham got what you got. Like if you’re Jesse Bates, you’re looking at those numbers saying, “Hey, we got to get this over 20 million because I am on a different planet than those guys.” So, as far as safeties impacting the coverage grade, Jesse Bates does as much as any safety in the league in my opinion. And then I love the Xavier Watts addition. I hinted at this earlier in the video, but he was a top 50 player in this draft for me. Um, could not believe he fell as far as he did. And good on the Falcons for pulling the trigger. Um, there were there were multiple other safeties that tested better that were drafted ahead of Xavier Watts that I think those teams are going to deeply regret not drafting Xavier Watts who’s just a good football player. Don’t overthink it all the time, especially at this position. Like, dude, 40 time is not that big of a deal at safety. It’s not. Having range is so much more about understanding route concepts and taking risks at the right time than it is about your 40 time. And you know who some of the best safeties in the NFL are? Jesse Bates ran a 457. Kyle Hamilton was a 459 guy. Brian Branch 458. Xavier McKenna, my high-end pro comp for Xavier Watts was a 458. And Xavier Watts was right in that range like a 458. like he has more than enough speed to be a good safety at the NFL level. And three picks before the Falcons were able to get Xavier Watts. The Inner Division New Orleans Saints threw an absolute bone to the Falcons in my opinion, drafting Jonas Sanker because he ran a better 40 time. Obviously, time will tell, but that is my take on this. You’re talking about a guy that has a rare understanding of this position for a a college prospect. There’s a reason he had way more ball production than any other safety in this draft. Not because he’s fast, but because he understands routes, just like a Jesse Bates, he understands when to take risks, how to anticipate route breaks, and actually start covering guys instead of just playing passive like so many of these young safeties do and being too late to react to anything. Watts just gets it. He loves to hit. He’s got size to play down in the box as a complement to Jesse Bates. But I love especially like um we mentioned this team was near the top of the league in cover six. About 20% of their coverage snaps are cover six. you can rotate Jesse Bates to the half field and Xavier Watts in that kind of lurking quarters assignment um on the other half of a cover six like he is going to be in a great playmaking opportunity or vice versa. Xavier Watts can totally play a two shell rotating high. Now, if you rotate into a cover three, yeah, you want it to be Jesse Bates more often than not, but I think Xavier Watts can at least um you know, not allow big plays from the back end, too. If not, be even more than that as a as a free safety. So, just a huge huge fan of the Xavier Watts pick. Can’t rank him too high, obviously, as a rookie coming in, but um if Watts is anywhere close to my kind of high-end pro comp on him of Xavier McKini, then yes, this is a top five secondary in the league. You have really three impact players in the secondary and then nonweaknesses in Alford and Hughes. And that is certainly good enough to be a top five secondary. So, he’s got to prove it. Of course, he’s got to hell, he’s got to earn this job because right now Jordan Fuller is listed as the starter. That’s because Raheem Morris worked with Fuller in um in in LA when these two guys were together. Look, if if Raheem Morris starts Jordan Fuller over Xavier Watts because he’s familiar, I’m going to be pissed. Like, that I I just really don’t think that that is acceptable. Um, Fuller was really bad last year. He is a guy that is probably below the threshold at this point in terms of athleticism. Um, I mean, I know I poo pooed the idea of 40 time being so substantial, but all the guys we were talking about were at least in the four fives. Jordan Fuller coming out ran a 467. You watch his tape in Carolina last year. He’s moving slower than most linebackers out there. So, just to play him because he’s more familiar with your defensive calls um because you worked with him two years ago. That would really piss me off. get Xavier Watts out there. Get him out there early and by season’s end you could have um a prolific safety duo. Um and then you have Demarco Helms as well coming back off the injury. I actually I don’t want to oversell Demarco Helms, but there’s a chance for him to fall into a really exciting role in this defense. I always said on Helms, he is I mean talk about risk assessment. He is like going to fly after the first thing he sees, a route break, a pump fake, playaction fake, whatever it is. He’s a go-getter. He’s a hard hitter. He’s got decent speed, um, decent ball skills, dare I say, decent playmaking ability, but probably not someone you want playing the deep half or the post or anything because as we saw at Alabama, you’re a double move away from him giving up an 80 yard touchdown basically. But if they use him as a dime back roll where they say, “Hey, you’re a hook zone. Go run around. Go find a play. Go make a play. Go hit someone. Go punch a ball out. Like go make something happen.” The PJ Williams role, if you will. I think he’s got a lot of potential coming back off the injury. So, keep an eye on him. If if he can carve out that type of role, I think that can be an impact player for a defense, even if it’s not a starter. Uh, and then you got Kevin King. We’ll see if he makes the team with these new additions at safety. And then Josh Thompson was a college corner. Um, now at safety, they have out of the Big 12, they have a Texas corner who’s now a safety and an Oklahoma safety who’s now a corner in Billy Bowman. Um, but yeah, it’s a fun secondary for sure. And at least this defense has something good going for him. But as a big pass rush and Dline guy, uh, the Falcons defense has some major major major major questions. They come in as my 30th ranked defense. I know those watching the series, I know what you’re thinking that this is now the third team we’ve seen ranked 30th at some point. Just a reminder, sometimes these ratings do change as I dive into my prep on each of these teams. I did feel like I originally had the Falcons coverage grade a little bit too high. I originally had them firmly inside the top five with an A minus grade. Had to remind myself that Xavier Watts is still a rookie. and those other two corners are far from great. So, I think we’ve got them in the right spot now. But that did push the Falcons defense below Carolina. So, just an update for the the the series. It is now Miami 28 after the addition of Ma Fitzpatrick. Carolina’s 29th, and now Atlanta is 30th for total defense. Um, but 28th in pass defense and 29th in run defense. That’s also a major major concern. Overall, there are certainly pockets of upside with this defense. It’s probably not going to all come together this year. Uh unless you think Raheem Morris can be u an elite coach. Um that’s another factor here. It’s like Morris just doesn’t stand out as a defensive coach for me um compared to so many of the great ones in the league today. Uh but there is upside if the pass rush can come together. If Xavier Watts is awesome as a rookie, maybe even with the linebacker room, if Troy Anderson can break through, this could sniff top 20. But there’s still like that Dline is so far away that it’s it’s just tough to have a good consistent defense when you have quite possibly the worst Dline in the NFL. But let’s begin to wrap things up. We do have to talk some special teams here. So, the Falcons come out 24th for me in special teams. Maybe a bit of a surprise here is Young W Coup has actually taken a dip in his play as their kicker the last couple years. I believe he made the Pro Bowl in 2022. But over the last two years, he’s 9 for5 on 50 plus yard kicks and 16 for 22 on 40 plus yard kicks. He’s been frankly below average. So the Falcons ranked 25th for kicker. Uh Bradley Pinion has been awesome. They did bring in Jamal Agnu, who should be a good returner. As far as the PFF and DVOA team grades last year, they were 24th for PFF and 29th for DVOA. Um, so yeah, 24th for overall special teams with a C++ grade. I don’t think this is a group that you’re worried about by any stretch of the imagination, but um not a special special teams uh either. But before we get to the schedule, let’s recap this this team overall. um starting with their strengths, weaknesses, and most importantly those pivotal factors that will ultimately decide if this 23rd overall ranking is going to hash age like milk. Um but yeah, their strengths all really come on offense, running back, receiving weapons, and the run blocking are all strengths for them. Weaknesses, I have defensive line, as we’ve discussed, and then I put down depth on offense. just going through these deep dives, it does feel like the Falcons are an injury away from shaky players coming in a little bit more so offensively than others. So, something to at least stash in the back of your mind that the Falcons might be a little bit more dependent on their starters staying healthy. Um, but the big wild cards obviously Michael Pennix, that’s the biggest one far and away. if he plays well, this team should finish better than our 23rd team come season’s end. Um, but that defensive line, uh, while it is currently a weakness in my opinion, there is a chance for it to at least be a non-weakness. Not just the two rookie edge rushers, uh, but also those aging defensive linemen if they can slow their regression at 33 years old. In the case of Anya Mada and Floyd and even Morgan Fox, I think it’s 31 years old who’s been regressing. If they can slow that pace of aggression and these rookies can play really well out the gate, then again, I think the Dline can at least from a pass rushing perspective be a nonweakness. It being a strength in year one, I would probably say is off the table. And either way, I think the run defense is going to struggle for that group. And then coaching, man, like we talked about, big year for Raheem Morris to show us a little bit more of just something, whatever that something might be, culture, it factor, defensive scheming, creativity, young players developing and exceeding expectations under his wing, whatever whatever things you can attribute to a head coach. I mean, there’s just not a list of anything too impressive for Raheem Morris at this point in time. And that carries through to Zack Robinson as well, who’s just extremely young and still at this point in time unproven as an offensive coordinator. But if he can prove his ability to push the right buttons at the right time, fun find the right run pass balance and maybe even bring a little bit of um offensive ingenuity to the table as opposed to what to me felt like he was basically just running Shawn McVeyy’s playbook last year, which there’s nothing really wrong with that, but you probably want to see a little bit more um creativity than that. So um there’s upside in that sense too with Zack Robinson and then the Falcons can lose him and be stuck with Raheem Morris. Uh, but let’s wrap up by taking a look at the Falcons schedule. And for those that are saying, “I’m too low on this Falcons team.” They are, in terms of Super Bowl odds, right in this range. They are 21st to 23rd in total Super Bowl odds at 75 to1. They are second in this division, which holds true. We’ve already done the Panthers and Saints, and their overunder is 7 and a half, which is right in line with about your 23rd ranked team in the league. So, at least Vegas would say this is pretty par for the course with this ranking. Um, but their schedule pretty standard in my opinion. Nothing really stands out to me about it being overly easy or overly hard. I guess the two key things to look at there would be what two divisions did you draw? And then you want to probably get if you’re in the Falcons range, you probably want to get from those divisions, you want to get the more winnable games at home and then take that underdog approach on the road against the teams that you probably wouldn’t be favored at home anyway. So they draw the AFC East and the NFC West. I would say that’s favorable. The AFC East just might be the worst division in football. NFC West probably average, but out of the East they did end up at home with the Bills. Would probably rather get like New England or the Jets at home, especially with the Jets later in the year there. I think they might figure out things as the year goes on. Um then with the West, uh you host the Rams, have to visit San Francisco, visit Arizona at the end of the year. uh team that has not finished the strongest um in Arizona and in the Kyler Murray era Murray era. So that’s that’s nice at least and then Seattle at home. So, you know, there’s nothing really too much to say about this schedule. This is just going to come down to the the X factors for this team for the Falcons taking care of the Atlanta Falcons. There’s nothing about this schedule that says it’s insurmountable. Um, and that they can’t, you know, beat this over under or dare I say even win this division. I think it’s in play if Tampa falters. Um, obviously we have Atlanta second ranked in this division. But at the same time, this is a team that I I would not bet. Um, in fact, my math has them right next to what Vegas has, seven and a half win total. But I’m just not a huge fan of betting on or even against young quarterbacks. Like it’s it is just kind of a crapshoot. So it’s probably more of a fun team to watch than it is to bet. Obviously Falcons fans going to lean towards the side of optimism with this team. And taking that over as a neutral bystander, I would say I’m not going to stop you. But there’s not necessarily a lot of value in that line either for the betters out there. But that is going to do it for our Falcons deep dive. Would love to hear from you guys if I missed any news and notes on this team, any tidbits, if you disagree with any of my evaluations or things I said about these players, and let me know who do you think comes in with the number 22 ranking in these deep dives. I know we got a couple teams like the Colts and the Raiders that you guys have been waiting on uh to be revealed. It seems I am just a little bit higher on those teams. We’ll see when those guys come in. But, uh, yeah, gonna have some fun for the 4th of July here. To our, uh, US viewers, um, happy 4th of July. Uh, to our international viewers, shout out to you guys. It’s like 20% of our viewership, which always blows my mind. So, I don’t want to disclude you guys, but I’m a big Fourth of July fan. So, we we host a big party every year, which is going to be about a day and a half of not working on deep dives between the partying and the ensuing hangover. Uh so we’ll see you probably in about four to five days for the next deep dive and then um it is really full go uh every two to three days after that leading up to the start of the season. So thank you guys for watching. This was a fun one and I’ll see you soon. Peace out. [Music]
A comprehensive preview of the 2025 Atlanta Falcons! In this video, we’ll review Offseason Changes, the Coaching Staff, what the Offensive & Defensive Schemes will look like, how each position group stacks up against the rest of the League, and finally take a look at their schedule and win total expectations!
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My QB Tiers
Tier 1 – Elite
QBs who give you a shot at a Super Bowl every year almost regardless of roster talent.
Tier 2 – Great
QBs who elevate their team who you would expect to win a Super Bowl in a 10-year window at their current level of play.
Tier 3 – Good
QBs who can get the most out of a great team and give you a shot at a Super Bowl as long kolas the team stays great around him.
Tier 4 – Fine (Split into Developing & Capped)
Clearly a starting caliber QB but are either in their growth stages as a prospect or have reached a ceiling that suggests you will have a very hard time winning a championship with this player.
Tier 5 – Fringe Starter (Split into Developing & Capped)
A QB flirting with the line of being one of the Top 32 QBs in the league. Is either a capped, bridge Quarterback for a team, or a talented, young QB with upside and at least a 1 year runway to show development on his current team.
Tier 6 – Backup (Split into Developing & Capped)
Either a veteran backup who has reached his ceiling, or an intriguing young backup who could surprise someday if given an opportunity.
QB Run Multiplier is for the Designed Run Game Only! Scheme & usage is heavily considered. The QBs
Scrambling ability is a part of my Passing grade and evaluation.
Team Formulas
Team Overall)
64% Offense | 35% Defense | 1% Special Teams
Team Offense)
64% Passing Game | 36% Run Game
Passing Game)
40% QB Passing | 30% Weapons | 21% Pass Blocking | 8% Pass Game Coaching | 1% Coach & Culture
Run Game)
45% Run Blocking | 32% Runningback | 20% Run Game Coaching | 3% Coach & Culture | QB Run applied as a Multiplier
Team Defense)
65% Pass Defense
35% Run Defense
Pass Defense
45% Pass Rush | 30% DB Coverage | 6% LB Coverage | 17% Pass Defense Coaching | 2% Coach & Culture
Run Defense
41% DL Run Defense | 30% LB Run Defense | 25% Run Defense Coaching | 4% Coach & Culture | DB Run Support applied as Multiplier
Chapters
Intro 0:00
Offseason Changes 1:23
Coach & Scheme 9:56
Quarterback 25:29
Weapons 38:08
Backfield 1:00:17
O-Line 1:09:24
Offensive Summary 1:19:48
Defensive Line 1:21:30
Linebackers 1:48:27
Secondary 1:57:41
Defensive Summary 2:12:45
Special Teams 2:14:41
Team Summary 2:15:39
Schedule & Win Total Projections 2:18:32
38 comments
Just a couple errors and omissions:
I said Florida State for Kyle Pitts by accident, not Florida.
I also failed to edit out my re-take on Casey Washington when I called him an undrafted pickup last year so you get to hear about him twice. 😉
Marcus I hope you know that you feed my football autism
Over colts I don’t get but people saying raiders are crazy
Breaking news: Atlanta Falcons just traded Kirk for Jaycee Horn
Love it. i'm always waiting for the next one
COLTS SURVIVE AGAIN!! LFG INDIANA JONES!!!!!!
Did not see that coming, very ballsy!
Love your videos, but how in the world is Chris Lindstrom not an elite Guard ?
Another Year of the Falcons not firing Terry Fonteno. Lets see Alanta Burn their organization to the ground more than they already have 😂
#23 seems fairly low to me considering all of the additions they have had and where specifically their offense ranked last year, especially in rushing metrics. but fair enough, this is your prerogative at the end of the day. just one of those cases where I happen to disagree, especially given that you did acknowledge a lot of their over all upside as a roster, even despite the more detrimental aspects of the organization as a whole. at least we'll always be first in the most important metric: stadium food prices, lol. the one thing I will always be thankful to Arty Blank for!
You know I had a weird feeling the falcons would be next. It was either them or raiders
This seems harsh. We are a better roster than last season just with a different QB thats actual mobile
As a Raider fan, from here on out, I’m holding my breath to see what he thinks of the competitive rebuild
Crazy the Eagles have it this far.
Where in the world are the RAIDERS!!!?
As a Falcons fan, I get this ranking; I look at the roster and I see a young star QB about to break out, an elite WR about to become a household name, two rookie first round pass rushers who are going to immediately elevate the pass rush and- by extension- the entire defense, and even a rookie safety who is going to form one of the best tandems in the league with Jessie Bates. Not to mention, that Kyle Pitts breakout is always just around the corner.
If I weren't a fan, I'd see a young QB with potential who may or may not pan out, a good WR who might take the next step or might take a step back, a few promising rookie dart throws at a bad defense. And a former 4th overall TE pick who clearly isn't what he was supposed to be.
You say you rank these teams near their floor, so 23 makes sense!
Side note about your stance on defensive head coaches: I feel like no team hires a DC to be their HC if they don't think he is a top 10 defensive mind in the league. The criticism might seem more poignant (not to mention more fresh, at this point), if you were to focus on any apparently-bad evaluation of what a specific defensive HC hire brings, rather than the whole concept of hiring a defensive HC.
32:44 After Penix ran that surprising fast 40 at the combine, a quotation from his father circulated. Back when he was being recruited, people asked why he didn’t take off to run when the opportunity presented itself. Penix Sr said they encouraged him to run, but he just woundn’t. He developed the desire to continue to read and extend plays in the pocket and would sooner take a sack than run.
He clearly developed his ability to get through his reads. But sometimes you see him and yell, “there’s room on the sidelines to run!”
Saying things with zero evidence again. Morris isnt on the hot seat so what if he fired his d coordinator. Is Mike McDonald on the hot seat for firing his oc. Maybe they just weren't a match. These more to staffing ppl than just X and O's.
And there no proof that your theory on hiring defensive head coached is worse than Offensive head coaches. Is bill belichek not the winnings coach inthe nfl.
You definitely sound like you have something against Morris. And just one season. After taking over a very below average roster. That still has a shot at playoffs up until Kirk Cousins started to fall off. Whole critique sounds like you have a problem with Morris . And defensive head coached in general.
Actually I take that back. He didn't have anything negative to say about Vrabel being a defensive head coach with a young qb. Thats was fine.
Boutta be the best work shift of alltime
Jimmy Lake was not scape goated. Going into the season rah said that he wanted to take a CEO approach and let both coordinators do their thing. James Lake was absolutely putrid, and rah ended up picking up more defensive duties after the bye which the defensive then started looking better, but then kirk shit the bed. Carolina, rah gave the defense back to james for one last opportunity and once again he was dog water and learned absolutely nothing.
Falcons are too high. They are bad and I don’t like them, panthers should be higher
Sincerely : a panthers fan
Disappointed with the ranking but non the less excited for what this season could be for us. Killed it once again Marcus!
Imma Colts fan and we should definitely be lower but I'll see what he says. Keep up the work
Colts clear the Falcons you casuals can keep crying
I enjoy this deep dive series! I think I agree with this ranking for the Falcons as there are quite a few question marks on this team. I've seen them ranked as low as 28 because of the questions around Michael Penix and this defense.
Some people, however, are VERY high on this team. One ranking I saw had them as a Super Bowl contender, all the way up at number 3.
So, people are all over the map on the Falcons. Ranking them anywhere from 28 to 3.
I don’t really get watching Penix and Kirk last year and grading them the same… Penix like a 78 and Kirk like a 72…
i think this team can go 12-5 i’m not even gonna lie
I can assure you this will age poorly
I gave up on Kyle Pitts 2 years ago that dude. He doesn't block, he doesn't get open, and he doesn't beat guys over the top.
That run defense is SWISS cheese lmao
Falcons upgrade on defense but are worse than colts and raiders clean logic
Nooo you’re wrong for this one , way too soon. Colts? Steelers? Raiders? Cardinals? Bears?
i knew this was coming i noticed on the schedule overviews for previous teams that you were meaner to the falcons than I would have been
What goes into “missed tackles forced?” Surprised at how low the numbers are. Maybe it’s a bit different than how many guys you get away from or avoid, or the break tackle ability?
Raheem morris isnt even a good dc, for him to get another head coaching job is a joke. His last 3 def coordinator years his defense was 15th,21st and 19th in points allowed
Definitely too low
Maybe Morris is like ravens and Lions head coach. I think he is running for CLord
How have the Raiders not been dove into yet?