Welcome to Evan’s mailbag, where each week Avalanche reporter Evan Rawal answers all your Avalanche- and hockey-related questions. Mailbag questions can be sent to evan.rawal@gazette.com.
What do you reckon they do with Martin Necas? Should they commit to a minimum of 3 years or trade? Think Avs should focus on players that help them win in the playoffs. Necas doesn’t feel like one…
I’ve mentioned it here before but the rumblings that Necas is unhappy are just false and I feel confident saying that after asking around. The biggest reason that Necas’ name has been mentioned by more than a few NHL insiders as potential trade bait just has to come down to his price tag. Are the Avalanche willing to pay him or not? Because if they aren’t, they kind of have to make that decision relatively soon.
I’ve thought about this a fair bit, and I tend to lean towards the “sign Necas” side. He’s not without his flaws, which tend to show up more in the playoffs, but he’s extremely talented, fits the system well, and has been durable over the last few years. He’s also just 26 on a team that is now full of guys over 30. Lehkonen, Landeskog, and Nichushkin tend to miss games and if you don’t have Necas and suddenly one or more of those guys get hurt, then you get thin real fast on the wing.
Obviously, it all comes down to price, and if you can’t get him to sign something reasonable, that’s a bigger issue and forces you to pivot regardless. If they can get him under $10 million a year, I think you pull the trigger. It’s pricey but the cap is only going to keep going up.
The other thing that must be kept in mind is trade value. How much value does Necas even have in a trade? It’s tough to gauge. Keep in mind the Hurricanes tried to trade him last summer, and no one was willing to give up a first round pick for him. He followed that up with a career year, so things have obviously changed a bit, but how much is a team willing to trade for a guy who is set for a big payday and doesn’t have a great playoff track record? You can want a forward and a defenseman in return, but that doesn’t mean you’ll get it.
The Mikko Rantanen trade will be dissected for years, but the Avalanche did okay to get Necas and Jack Drury. Lightning doesn’t always strike twice. If you’re trading Necas, you’re likely giving up the best player in any deal. Are you going to get better, or are you just spreading the money out more throughout the lineup? Turning $1 into 90 cents too many times can slowly remove the high-end talent from your team.
Colorado has already made some big decisions this offseason, but this will probably be the biggest one they make. It’s not an easy one but like I said, I tend to lean towards the side that signing Necas is the right move.
Which team might be interested in Ross Colton, which would also bring us a new center for our third line?
The tricky part about trading Ross Colton now is that the team doesn’t exactly have a ton of guys to play in their bottom six. There’s no Charlie Coyle, there’s no Miles Wood, and as of right now, there’s no Joel Kiviranta. You also won’t have Logan O’Connor to start the year. You do need bodies, and Colton is still a good player. If they have to start the year with Drury as the third line center, I think they’ll be fine. Heck, they had a natural winger playing third line center for 60% of last season and were fine.
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Will Mackenzie Blackwood get moved with Ilya Nabokov’s imminent arrival?
No. You don’t move a starting goaltender just because you *think* Ilya Nabokov might be good. Nabokov will come over and either start in the AHL or go right to being the backup. If he comes over and is immediately good, that’s almost the perfect scenario. Then you’ve got two good goalies and the option to eventually move one if you want to. Blackwood is the starter until Nabokov takes it from him.
Why are the Avs so scared to make moves?
They’re not scared; they’re just being patient. So are other teams. There are a lot of rumblings that teams around the league have the cap space and are eager to improve. This just wasn’t the free agent market to do it in, which means teams will start looking at the trade market.
I’ll be very surprised if the Avalanche go into the season with the roster constructed the way it currently. General manager Chris MacFarland didn’t trade away his third line center for no reason…right?
What number is Brent Burns wearing?
He hinted at 84 in his media call but wasn’t sure just yet. He’s not getting 8 or 88 unless something changes.
Jack Roslovic or Evan Rodrigues?
I would welcome Evan Rodrigues back with open arms. Really solid and versatile player who comes at a reasonable price. The Avalanche do have the room to add him if they want to.
Roslovic is a player I have no interest in. He’s wildly inconsistent and doesn’t fill any real role in the bottom six. There’s a reason the Hurricanes scratched him in 40% of their playoff games.