NEW! Chiefs Cap Crunch: Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones & the 2022 Draft Class Dilemma – 41 is the Mic

NEW! Chiefs Cap Crunch: Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones & the 2022 Draft Class Dilemma – 41 is the Mic

It’s time for 41 is the Mic, a weekly Chiefs podcast with Nick Jacobs of Kshb 41 and Matt Derek of Chiefs Digest. 41 is the Mic starts now. Hopefully everybody had a great Fourth of July and we are back with 41 is the Mic. I am Matt Derek from Chief’s Digest alongside projected salary cap enthusiast Nick Jacobs from Kshb41. Nick, did you have a a great and happy Fourth of July?
Yeah, I can’t complain. I hope everybody did. And yes, I do enjoy uh figuring out the salary cap. It’s like my version of Tetris. Really is because I mean you go down some rabbit holes and you could spend a couple hours on the salary cap. And this is something that we like to do every year, Nick. and is to to do an exercise as as Brett Vch looking forward to putting the puzzle pieces together for the future when it comes to the salary cap because yes, there are people who will tell you that the salary cap is fake. It’s not. It’s flexible. But when you look at what the Chiefs have going on in the future, I mean, there’s certainly going to be some challenges that Brett V and his staff are going to face. And um you know, let’s doing just a quick, you know, kind of overview. I mean 2025 the Chiefs, you know, right now they’re in the middle of it, but they have about $10.9 million in salary cap space and for ease of not only just use and explanation, but also for the best available information, we’re going to be using over the cap because their numbers are generally considered the most accurate as far as the projections for going forward on the salary cap and into the future. Um, I mean, we’re not, but we’re not going to really focus on 2025. We’re going to be looking at 26 in the future and what the Chiefs need to do and get done. And you look doing a just a quick overview of 2026. Right now, over the cap projects that the ch salary cap in the league will be 295 million. Now, I’ll just give a quick feeling that I think that’s a little on the conservative side. It’s like a 5.6% increase. um salary cap hasn’t had that small of an increase since COVID and before COVID. It’s been almost 15 years since it had an increase that small. So, it’s a little conservative, but that’s what NFL teams do. They were surprised by the 2025 cap. They were surprised how much it went up. But right now, Nick, the Chiefs have 51 players under contract for 2026, which sounds great, but that also includes a lot of undrafted rookie free agents. There’s probably about 30 to 35 players that you are planning on maybe having on the roster on 2026 that are signed. Team is $37.2 million over the cap. That’s a a bit of a problem. Yeah. So, I mean, with what the Chiefs did in 2025 to move some of Patrick Mahomes money around and to move some of Chris Jones money around, they took from future cap years. So, I mean, going into the year, the Chiefs were I can’t remember at one point they were 90. They had 90 million in cash for 2026 and at one point before that last year was over 100 million and then you slowly with each passing move got to 60 million then 50 million and now based on the projection by over the cap you’re you know you’re over significantly by about uh 37.2 2 million. That is what they are projected over based on that payroll. Now, that’s going to change. It’s going to fluctuate because I know spot track for people that like that it has the cap at $37 million and they only have 24 million over. Um, but either way, the most interesting part of it is that Patrick Mahomes has a 78.2 million capit in 2026. Now, why is that important? Um, and the fact that they’re over that much, that is because they’re going to have to figure out something with Patrick’s contract, then likely an extension that can space that money around and kind of turn it into a whole new type of contract or extend it out and adjust the overall number and everything for both probably potentially this year, but definitely next year and the following years after that. And then also the thing you need to understand is next year’s free agency class doesn’t include Trey Smith, Travis Kelce, Maris Brown, Charles and Minahue, Elisha Mitchell, um Naz Johnson, Sky Moore, Brian Cook, Leo Chanel, Joshua Williams, Jaylen Watson, and Isaiah Pacheco under contract. They are all free agents right now. So looking in the 2025 aspect, the two things that Brett Vicha is probably going to have to work on and get figured out financially is Patrick Mahomes $78.2 million capit for next year. So that’s like priority two um to get figured out before you get into the off season. And then priority one would potentially be Trey Smith. And can you get something done by July 15th and get that number down cap hit-wise this year to essentially be able to carry over into next year and honestly pay for his contract or pay for somebody else’s depending on how you adjust and do that capit. So those are the two most important things. And so everybody askked us all the time about George Carlos and Trent McDuffy and hey are they going to get those done? Here’s part of the strategy you need to understand by looking at 2026. And this is why Matt and I are doing this podcast right now. George Carl says has a 15.1 million cap hit for next year because they exercise the option. Trent McDuffy’s got a $13.6 million cap hit because they exercise the option. So, hypothetically, if you get contract deals done with them, you have to figure out a deal that is won long enough that still keeps their 2026 capit down or you need to wait until next March and have whatever you’re going to do decision-wise with Trey Smith and Patrick Mahomes situated before you start working on deals with George Carlos and Trent McDuffy and, you know, and get that number down for next year to help give you cap relief. and then start to raise that number. If you’re going to sign either one or both of them or if you’re going to, you know, trade them for picks or whatever you end up doing, then you need to you’re going to financially start working on that next February, March in that range. But you want to have Mahomes and Trent done uh or Trey Dunn. But Chris Jones capit is also big because that’s 44.8 million next year because of some of the stuff they kicked the can down the road on with his. So, with Chris Jones, the thing you need to understand on that front is I don’t know how to put this in a nice way. You’ve got a tough decision to make going in to next year. You You’re going to have to eat the contract if you don’t want to adjust anything because you can’t you can’t just outright release him because it it 19.4 4 million of cap space goes away. So that’s almost an additional 20 million you don’t have to work with. Um and then you know and he’ll be 32 at that time. So in 2027 when he’s 33 he’s got a $38 million cap hit but you get $18 million back if you were to outright release him. Then in 2028 when he’s 34 that’s another $44 million cap hit but you get 35 million back. So Chris is kind of at that point where like this year, you know, the Chiefs are going to have to make a decision after this year. Do they just stick with the contract the way it is or do they try to extend it out to drop his number until he retires? And so that’s that’s one of the unique things that the Chiefs have. So Matt, those are some of the key points. Well, and I’ll throw out even a wrinkle for you because next year in the offseason, Chiefs are going to have a fifth year option on Felix and Adik Uzama. Let’s say Felix Anadik Ozama goes out and has a breakout year this year. Nick, all of a sudden, Chiefs could be in a situation where if they have to pick up that fifth year option for 2027, you’re talking about all of a sudden adding a $20 million plus cap hit for that season for Felix. Now, am I I I don’t know. I mean, based on what we’ve seen with the body of work right now, you wouldn’t say that the Chiefs would be picking up that fifth year option, but could Felix force the Chiefs hand with a career, you know, breakout season? It’s possible. So those kind of things can happen. But you know, you mentioned the one thing you know for sure that you’re gonna have to deal with is Trey Smith in that situation because after the season the Chiefs obviously they have several options. I mean one will be to try and get a a long-term deal done with Trey Smith whether it’s before July 15th the deal you know right now the deadline after July 15th the Chiefs can’t negotiate with with Trey the rest of the season. So then it would all of a sudden that would be kicked down the curb and punted until the off season. So then you’d be faced with the choice of getting something done with Trey Smith tagging him again which would be a minimum right now about $28 million tag for 2026 which as we’ve discussed the Chiefs right now are already $37 million over the cap before they would try to add another 28 million for for Trey Smith. you would have to to tag Trey Smith even to trade him because otherwise your third option would be to just let Trey Smith walk, get a third round comp pick back for him at best. So I mean unless the Chiefs get something done with Trey Smith in the next nine days before July 15th, to me the the postseason post, you know, 2026 options aren’t great. No, I mean like they they have a chance right now if they can get something done with Trey, then that allows them to know what they can maneuver with Mahomes. And the and the reason I say that is because if I’m in if I’m in Clark Hunt’s shoes, then the thing I’m trying to figure out is like how much has to go into potential escrow and how much is he having to set aside for that on top of, you know, stadium talks? How much is he having to budget for that? So, I mean, like I the thing I think a lot of people forget a lot of the time is like there there is a budget for owners in terms of, you know, their own financials about what they’re having to set aside of their own actual money to put into accounts to account for contracts. And that’s something that just people people always gloss over when they say the salary cap isn’t real. It isn’t flexible. It isn’t all those things. Well, the owner knows it’s real because there’s still money they’re having to set aside for those for those players from either what they’ve made financially or uh you know from their franchise or even their own even their own money that they’re having to adjust from a business perspective in a different way. So, I I just I think sometimes people, you know, since they don’t have to, you know, account for it or pay for it, it doesn’t exist. So, but for an owner, there’s some owners that have to they have to think about things a specific way because of like, you know, other businesses they might be involved with and other things they may have going on. So that’s why I’m like Trey Smith and Mahomes is kind of those are the two that if I’m in Clark Hunt’s shoes, I’m trying to budget for what’s the budget going to be that’s got to be a set aside for that for whatever may happen or whatever is adjusted or whatever needs to be guaranteed that wasn’t before, you know, in that aspect of it. And especially with Trey Smith, you’re I think it’s really key that if you do get something done done by the 15th, in some ways, you’re essentially paying for his contract by what you can carry over capwise. If you adjust the cap space a certain way, you’re already kind of accounting for his contract to where it doesn’t add on to next year’s cap if you do the carryover at the end of this year via, you know, to kind of account for a lot of his number. Well, and and that’s the next question, which is that then when you are, you know, I tell you what, I want to throw one more wrinkle in before we get to the Mahomes contract. The other possibility, let’s say that Travis Kelce decides to play in 2026. You don’t have him under contract yet. And his he’s been his cash this year is a little over 17 million. Um, his cap hit is a little over 195ish, I think. But if Travis Kelce wants to come back, um, Chiefs aren’t going to say no, right? They’re going to bring Travis Kelce back. That’s another contract you’d have to shoehorn in.
Then that then that may be where the cap savings that they got from this year with if they hypothetically got something done with Trey, maybe that’s where that has to budget for for a year, two years, however they do that. But getting trade done helps provide them flexibility to essentially how they set it up can can help them anywhere probably between 10 to maybe even $20 million from a cap hit perspective for next year depending on how they do the the new number with him if they are able to get it done.
Yeah. And getting into the Mahomes part of the contract. I mean, his his contract has obviously been designed to be restructured and re reworked and renegotiated along the way. And 2026 is one of those points. I mean, it’s designed for it to be revisited as far as, you know, redoing the contract to one, keep Momes kind of at the top of the market, competitive with other deals around the league, and then two, obviously, to help the team move the money around so that it helps build a team and keep a team around Patrick. Um, some people may not realize this, but I mean, right now, I mean, Patrick Mahomes’s contract runs through 2033 when he’d be 38. Now, there’s two void years on there, but they’re there for this purpose, this contract purpose of eventually penciling in numbers that, you know, one can be used to kind of, you know, manipulate the the cap a little bit, but it’s also there to kind of throw some numbers in that at least make a deal can make a deal look bigger than it actually is because that’s once again the story of the NFL is throwing in money that the player will never see just to make a contract look bigger. Now, that’s not what Mahomes is about. and most of the money that you throw in there Mahomes is going to get. But, you know, yeah, you’re not going to be carrying a quarterback. No, even if it’s Patrick Mahomes with a $78 million cap hit right now. That’s going to get moved around. So, Chiefs are going to do a new deal with Mahomes. You know that right now Dak Prescott’s got the top deal in the league. Four years, $240 million. I mean, Patrick Mahomes is going to get a new new deal and it’s going to have somewhere along the lines of 60 million plus in new money per year and that’s will take him through most likely 2026 to at least 2029. That’s probably the, you know, best place to cut it off. But, you know, the Chiefs, hey, they’ll they’ll throw some other years in there, too, to, you know, have have a kind of a base for the future. But, you know, you’ve got to now I’m I’m not saying that it’s anywhere near, but you know, one, you’ve got to you it kind of makes you realize just the mortality of the NFL, Nick. I mean, Patrick Mahomes is going to be 38 in 2033. I mean, could that be the last year for Patrick Mahomes? It could be. Yeah. I’m I’m only focused on 2026 right now. Not trying to get us too far ahead covers, Matt. That’s a podcast for a handful of years from now. the the Chiefs will be playing in their new stadium on Pluto in 2033. So, we all know that. Um, so do you have any, you know, I mean, and I think we could spend a couple of hours trying to come up with a contract that, you know, the Chiefs will end up with a weeks and months with the with Mahomes’s agents to try and structure a deal. Do you have anything as far as, you know, you think ballpark as far as what Mahomes’ next contract might look like?
No. Absolutely no idea. I just know that $78 million cap hit is not cuz he’s got a $78 million cap hit next year, then he’s going to $74 million capit the following year. So, like they’re going to have to do something different to space that out and potentially add on some years if they need to to guarantee he stays the chief obviously, but also to give them the flexibility they’re going to need here in the next three to four years to either add additional players on to build the next wave of how they’re going to have to attack a Super Bowl or to, you know, just give them flexibility in general to sign some guys in their prime. But I mean, they’re they’re getting to the session to where next year, most of that 2022 draft class is going to hit free agency market and they’re what they’ve done in the draft past couple years is going to have to replenish it. So that’s that’s a big part on that front. Or if you know depending what type of year George Carlos has and Trent McDuffy has like that’s another thing that I’m not going to say they’re going to get a Tyreek Hill level trade but that may be something where they’re going to have to visit to get some additional draft picks to replenish what they’re going to have to do from a Super Bowl perspective because for people that want to know that here’s the here’s the key hits cap hits for 2026 right now. Patrick Mahomes is at the top of the list is 78.2 2 million. Chris Jones is at second of the list at 44.8 million. Third on the list is going to be Jawan Taylor at 27.3 million if they were to outright release him. That’s 20 million back in in potential cap savings. That’s where a lot of their dropping the number is going to come from. Other than potentially Mahomes and potentially, you know, Trey Smith if they get an adjustment done um to bolster up their cap. Then Nick Bolton is going to be next in line at 19.2 million. You’re not adjusting that uh for the most part. Jaylen Moore at 18.47. If you were to outright release him next year, you get 8 million in relief, but you’re likely going to have him be your replacement for Joan Taylor, right tackle. Creed Humphrey is going to be at 18.1 million. You’ve already done that contract. That’s going to be that. George Carlos is an option of 15.1. That’s something you can obviously adjust with an extension or if you were to if you saw a trade that worked out with a team that you wanted then you could get that cap relief from that. Trent McDuffy’s at a great price at 13.6 but you’re going to try to figure something out long term. Christian Fulton’s at 13 million but if you were to outright release him that’s a $5 million relief but you signed him because of what you’re expecting to lose from some of the drafted corners. And then Mike Dana is 11 million cat pit. And if you were to outright release him next year, you get $9 million in relief. And that’s where Ashton Gelani, that’s where Felix and UDK Usuzama comes into play to where you’re hoping those two are productive to where you feel comfortable moving on from a Mike Dana. And even Omar Norman Lot will probably play a factor in if the Chiefs feel comfortable kind of moving on from Mike Dana’s cap number. doesn’t mean he can’t come back in some way or capacity, but at $11 million, I don’t know if you’re going to have the level of production that warrants that 11 million. Here, here’s a crazy, you know, number that I I realized that to me just boggles the mind. But when you look at the Chiefs free agents for next off seasonason, for the 2026 off season, there are only three players on this team that took part in more than 50% of snaps last year that I would consider, you know, franchise cat tag caliber players. So, I mean, anybody who’s below 50% is a part-time player. I mean, that’s not somebody you would necessarily think of a franchise tag. So, you know, the the three players below that threshold, the top two, Nazi Johnson and and Leo Chanal, you’re not thinking about franchise tagging either one of those players, the three who are above the franchise, above that 50% and they’re and these three are over 80%. So, that would be Trey Smith, Brian Cook, and Travis Kelce. Now, Trey Smith, like we said, I mean, if you tag him next year, it’s $28 million. You don’t really know if you have that kind of space. If you’d like to get a deal done with him, could you tag Brian Cook? Sure. Could you tag Travis Kelce? You actually could. I mean, the franchise tag, non-exclusive, for a tight end this year, Nick, was 14.2 million. That’s actually could be a reasonable number. I mean, unless for some strange reason Travis, you know, agreed to a lower number than that. That’s less than he was making this season, which technically can’t take a pay cut, so it would actually have to be the at least higher than what he’s making this year. I mean, in theory, the Chiefs could use a franchise tag on Travis Kelce. I’m not predicting it, but I mean, Brian Cook is your only other option. And if Brian Cook has a standout year, or maybe one of your other guys who’s in a contract year all of a sudden breaks out, maybe you consider it. But right now, I mean, there’s not necessarily a lot of obvious options for the franchise tag in 26. Yeah. Well, right now you’re you’re so much over the cap that like you’re going to have to figure out that problem first before tags even on the thing. So, from a checklist perspective, like we talked about for people that continually ask and the whole reason we’re doing this podcast is like after July 15th, we’ll know what options are on the table for Trey Smith after that day. Did he get a extension done or or is this something that’s going to have to wait till next year? And then if it does wait till next year, like you’re going to have to if you want him in your plans long term, then you’re going to have to have a different financial approach than getting something done now and being able to have that 20 million account for potentially or 15 or 10 million, whatever, account for his cost in 2026. Because right now 2026 is kind of the key year of them having to readjust cost through a handful of players to springboard them for the next potential three to five year hopefully Super Bowl run or you know big playoff run and everything. So but the first building blocks is what happens with Trey. Do you get a Mahomes extension done? then that kind of really opens up the board in the years to come about what they can do whether like Matt’s talking about with Travis Kelce or you know with Charles Amen or Maris Brown or any of those type of guys or any of the 2022 draft picks. So that’s kind of why we’re hitting on this in the way that we are. Yeah. And I I couldn’t decide whether I was going to start with this Nick or finish. So I’m going to finish with this.
Okay. two thoughts from Brett Vch when he got the job in 2017 and asked about his vision and one thing he said was that it’s about constructing this team not for the short but for the long term and when asked about what vision that he thought sold Clark Hunt when because Clark Hunt said it was hey it was vision for the team for the future that got him this job he said I think it was just the detail in which you go by 17 18 19 this is kind of how I see the roster These are the key pieces we want to keep, extend, and move on from. And then there are the areas moving in a year and two years from now, we’re going to have to really put our focus in the draft and free agency. And that’s where the Chiefs are. I mean, they continue to be and this I think going forward more especially, they have to draft effectively well, which means that the guys in this year’s draft class have got to be key pieces in 26. They can’t afford to have, you know, bust. They can’t afford to have a guy who’s not on the 26 roster because these are affordable players, even if they’re special teams players. They need to those guys to hit. And they obviously need players like Omar Norman L, Ashton Gelotty, Jaylen Royals, up and down the up down this lot lot list. They need them to be effective and and most importantly affordable cheap players in the future.
Yeah. And that’s that’s where like like you said with Omar Norman Lot, you need him to potentially this year you got to find out is he a long-term three tech or is he kind of a a rotational one tech or is he, you know, you you’re starting to try to map out his future by how he does on the football field. So that’s where you’re going to watch on that front. Josh Simmons, you’re just hoping he gets the healthy point to where you’ve got that cost control position at left tackle for four to five seasons because then you have the fifth year option with him being a first round pick. then you can kind of worry about that five years down the road to where he would probably replace the number that you’re routinely given to Chris Jones or maybe that you’re given to um one of the current offensive linemen that is making big money between Creed and Trey of where maybe that’s where that comes from. Um, and then on top of that, like you know, with Ashton, you’re Ashton’s going to in some way, you’re hoping from when you drafted him, you’re hoping he can be a ro at minimum be a rotational guy this year, but long term, could he replace George Carlos at a cheaper rate or can he replace Charles Amin a cheaper rate next year or is he potentially going to potentially replace Felix Inid Usuzama? But you’re needing him to potentially replace one of those three roles because you you don’t you don’t want to get in a position where you’re paying two defensive ends 20 plus million per year on the pass rush while you still have Chris Jones making 40 plus in the next two years. So like that’s that’s kind of where you’re having to even out that cost and that’s where Josh Simmons comes into play because in an ideal world he’s evening out the cost of what you’re giving Creed and what you’re potentially giving hopefully Trey Smith in the next handful of years and then Jaylen keeps you more it keeps you at a more cost control spot at right tackle versus what Joan Taylor’s contract is. So, I mean there’s just like Matt’s saying, there’s just different spots you maneuver and everything to where like you’re having to draft at spots to keep things cost control because for example, Bashard Smith, you’re hoping he’s a more explosive running back so you don’t feel the need to have to resign Pacheco and people and people confuse may confuse that Pacheco is a good straight line runner but lateral quickness he he lacks in that and he lacks in vision to where he hasn’t been able to become a complete back because of those aspects of it. So you’re can Rashard Smith give you more of what you need laterally on the outside of the offense and then they got to find who could be more of the between the tackles punishing runner which is where you’re hoping Elijah Mitchell can prove himself and you can kind of maybe figure out something there short-term longlong term but then you know if if that doesn’t if Smith solidifies himself is what I think they envision from an explosive outside the tackles running back, then they’re going to have to go find their their physical back for next year potentially. If you know, depending on what how Kareem performs, how Pacheco performs and Pache is probably going to, you know, if I’m in Pacheco shoes, I want to go get a payday somewhere. and maybe something like, you know, being in a Baltimore Ravens scheme honestly probably fits him more in terms of style and what because Pacheco in my opinion is his running style is based on how his offensive line blocks for him and so in like a Ravens type scheme I think and also having a quarterback who has the threat of running I think gives Pacheco more lanes to where his vision doesn’t have to be as important and his ability to run in a straight line I think actually helps him more on that front. So, yeah, you have those aspects on that. And I’ve talked too long, so I’m going to give Matt back the floor. But, I mean, you just got to think how each one of those draft picks can potentially how do they help I hate to say it this way, but how do they help save on cost for either 2026 or 2027 free agents like a Jaylen Royals, he may help with the potential departure of Travis Kelce in a couple years. He may be a replacement for Rasheed Rice. Maybe he’s a replacement for Maris Brown down the road. But like you have to that’s where you’re going to watch how each one of these guys gets used, what type of role they succeed in, and then that kind of helps answer, you know, who they may be replacing. It’s this is my favorite exercise that we do every year, Nick, because this is what really gives you a sense of what it’s like to be an NFL GM because just making signings and and thinking about things in the short term and for this season is not what NFL GMs do. They have to figure out and look at what the roster is going to look like even more in depth than what we are talking about with 26 and 27. They got to be looking at 28, 29, and 30 as well. Um it’s tough. I mean, and so if you are going on and you want to know what it’s like to be a GM, go on spot track, over the cap, your favorite site, and don’t look at 25, look at 26 and 27 and how you would build this roster. Everybody, thank you very much. Hope you had a great Fourth of July weekend. We are going to be back. I haven’t talked to Nick yet to make sure see if he’s going to be available for Tuesday night for the Chief’s Digest live Q&A, but I always try to rope him into my shenanigans. Um, we will be back next week with another 40 episode of 41 is the mic. As always, we ask you if you can give us a fivestar review wherever you hear the podcast. If you’re on YouTube, hit the bell to uh get notified whenever new videos are available and like and subscribe as well. Nick, any parting thoughts?
Yeah, we need your reviews. Give us your reviews. Give us five stars on the audio version. give us whatever likes on the YouTube version because that helps more people find it and share it with everybody. Share it with everybody. I hope you shared with with everybody at the Fourth of July like, “Hey, you need to check out this podcast, 41 of the Mic. You need to check it out.” So tell everybody and that helps us out as well. And that also gives you a additional podcast that’s going to be informative and isn’t going to be as speculative as some can be
and will rarely be an hour and a half long like last week.
Yes, 100%. All right, everybody. Have a great week and we will see you later. You’ve been listening to 41 is the Mic presented by Kshb41, your home of the Chiefs and Chiefs Digest.

Matt Derrick and Nick Jacobs take Chief-ventory and dive deep into the crucial salary cap decisions looming over the Kansas City Chiefs. With major contracts like Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones, Trey Smith, and Jawaan Taylor on the books, what does that mean for Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis, and the rest of the 2022 draft class? The guys break down the financial future of the franchise in both the 2025 and 2026 cap years and what Brett Veach may have to sacrifice to keep the core intact.

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