The Harsh Truth About Mitch Marner

question. If you were a GM, what would you pay a winger who finished top five in scoring, but throughout his career has been known for becoming a shell of his true form in the biggest games? Well, if you were Vegas management, you’d give this player a $96 million contract, making him instantly the highest paid player on the team. That player being Mitch Marner. One of the most gifted playmakers in the NHL and a Selky Trophy finalist has somehow found himself public enemy number one in the place that he grew up. With a history of contract disputes along with 9 years of constant playoff failure, it has led to this. Mitch Marner smiling eartoear being a Vegas Golden Knight. Some people think Lee fans wrongly chased him out of town. Others are more than glad to see him go. Either way, this ending should have never have happened. An era of failure has led to a wild change in the NHL. So, let’s take a deeper look. Mitch Marner was one of the most beloved Toronto Maple Leafs on the team. Hometown star electric production. He was supposed to be one of the core pieces to end the curse and bring the cup back to Toronto. But after what was widely considered a bitter contract standoff in 2019 that ended up with him getting a $10.893 million ticket, the money quickly made Leaf fans say, “Show me your worth.” For all the regular season brilliance, playoffs told a different story. A lack of production and uncharacteristic mistakes and big games became a trend. And with the finger usually being pointed right at Marner. Add one more ugly game seven loss to the Panthers, it meant it was time for a change. For the next eight years, Mitch Mner will be a Vegas Golden Knight. But will it actually change the narrative around his game? Well, let’s start with the good. Mner at his best or in the regular season can be a top five player in the NHL. I mean, this past season, he did finish top five in scoring. He had his best statistical season as a Leaf in this final year, and it’s built largely off of his playmaking prowess, specifically off the rush. Mner is a master at manipulating defenders in these situations. Now, he isn’t exactly a one-on-one specialist, and what I mean by that is very seldomly does he attack a defender and try to beat him under the stick or wide with speed. Instead, his bread and butter is using his patience to pull defenders toward him to create a more dangerous opening for his teammate. Frequently using a change of speed or button hooks to throw off gaps against defenders, Marner has the patience and poise to either make a quick bump play to space or hold on to the puck and fight a slam dunk option for a great A chance. As a slighter build, Marner has it in his bag to absorb pressure and contact to make a play. Now, once he’s in the offensive zone, where he shines the most is along the wall. Controlling bobbling pucks and making plays two to three feet away from the wall is the hardest skill to master in hockey. Mner was third in the NHL this past season when it came to slot passes. And that’s because his first touch off the wall is usually handled perfectly so he can funnel it into a high danger area immediately. It’s actually how he set up the biggest goal Canada has scored in the last decade. His ability to control these rim pucks and swiftly place it in danger is at the core of what makes him one of the deadliest architects in the league. This is very similar to how Nikita Coutrov drives the play as a winger and a big reason why he’s been able to lead the NHL in points and back-toback seasons. However, where Marner thrives the most as a player is actually without the puck. It is no secret that the Leafs last season wanted to change their identity with the coaching change to Craig Buru. The Leafs went from a system under Sheldon Keefe that was more inclined to do its damage on the rush to one that was built off of its forche under Bub. So naturally, you think a player of Marner’s skill set and lean stature may actually struggle in this type of system. But he actually had his best statistical year under Bubie because of how well he anticipates the game. Almost every forch check in the NHL runs some variation of the one 122. That’ll continue thanks to the Florida effect, but Mner’s anticipation and positioning usually turn Toronto’s forche into a dangerous opportunity in a split second. His IQ allows him to be effective in every role in the forche. As well as the F1, he leverages his speed and awareness to arrive on time to pick off a pass and create havoc. as a slider build. He’s not rocking anyone on the for check, but he corners defenders really well with his angles and then uses a little bit of contact to separate the player from the puck. Where he truly thrives though is as the F2 or F3. MNER has the anticipation to frequently cut off breakout passes and be a disruptor to create a turnover. All year long, Mner’s reads off the forche put him in really dangerous spots to use his skill. And in a system where many thought the skill of Marner’s play may take a step back with the emphasis on forchecking, it actually ended up allowing his cerebral offensive instincts to thrive even more. It’s part of the reason why he led all forwards in the NHL in takeaways. The other reason is because of how good he is on the defensive side of the puck. As a winger, it’s hard to have the same defensive impact of a center, but he can play in all situations, especially on the PK. And amongst forwards, he was first in block passes and second in stick checks. Of course, there’s the other side of the Marner narrative, and unfortunately, the harsh truth. In his Maple Leafs career, Mner’s goals per game, points per game, and shooting percentage all see a dip come playoffs. And when it matters most in games five, six, and seven, his production drops right off with him never scoring a goal and only recording seven assists in those 20 games. More than the numbers, though, the eye test indicates that MNER just doesn’t look like the same guy at times that can dominate in the regular season. Why? Well, one can point to just the overall change of play from regular season hockey to playoff hockey. Naturally, the space shrinks and the first thing to go is offense off the rush. This is why many successful teams as of late has bought into the dump and chase system as trying to create off the rush opens yourself up to neutral zone turnovers and potential rush chances the other way. So, instantly, the space for Marner and other players who thrive in this specific area becomes infinitely more difficult to create offense. Again, take Nikita Cutrof, the best playmaker in the NHL, does have a similar play style to Marner in terms of rush offense and ability to create off the wall. But even in these past playoffs, Cutrov had almost zero room to create off the rush. Tampa had the best offense in the league during the regular season, but the game drastically changes come playoff time. Playing against the defending cup champs is a factor, of course, but Cucharov himself hasn’t scored a goal in the playoffs in his last 15 games. That’s a theme that also rings true with Mner. Mner isn’t a goal scorer, but he still tucked 27 times in the regular season. And when you look at where and how he scored his goals in the regular season, almost all of them came from the inner slot, primarily with him arriving on time in these areas and pulling the trigger. On his shot map in the 2025 regular season, Martner didn’t seem to have much of an issue getting in these areas. But come playoff time, most of his shot attempts weren’t in the inner slot where he can actually be a scoring threat. Once he does lose that scoring threat, playmaking becomes increasingly more difficult. Defenses are more inclined to pressure Marner right away on the walls to force a rush pass. Options off the rush close off relatively quickly and space becomes a rare commodity. Combine that with an overwhelming wave of pressure and expectations, you have a player who often looks like a shell of his true capabilities. Now, to point the finger at just one person just isn’t right. There’s factors like matchups, defensive systems, and linemates all playing a role. Hockey is a team sport. We just saw the two best players in the world get shut down in the cup final. But the expectation is that the players making that type of money usually find a way to break through in those moments. In 9 years, the trend in Toronto at least showed that Marner couldn’t do it. Now he’s on to Vegas where the hope is that a new environment will allow Marner to thrive in these moments. From a system standpoint under Bruce Cassidy, Mner should fit very well. The Golden Knights play a relatively passive 1224 check. So the F1’s will still be hard on the puck, but the F2 and F3 will stay higher to pressure the exit near the blue line. This is where that mar anticipation as the F2 and F3 will get him some lovely looks that he saw in Toronto. Because of this structure and passivity on the forche, Vegas is naturally more patient when defending the rush. Place Mner in this type of system where he can use his anticipation to step in lanes and create turnovers in the neutral zone. He will have ample opportunities to create rush chances from his defensive awareness. Now, from a mental standpoint, a fresh start without the pressure and expectations may mean that Marner can finally loosen up and break through in the playoffs. Of course, all of this is just theory until he steps on the ice in a Vegas uniform. The truth is that the Leafs were never built for success, paying four forwards $11 million. That being said, the Leafs never did quite get the best version of Mitch Mner in the games where it mattered the most. The contract only enhanced the pressure and when the production dipped, fans turned on the player. Mitch Marner is without a doubt one of the most talented wingers in the NHL. But in order to be truly worth the money, he’s got to prove it when it matters most. Growing up as an Ontario kid, it was the perfect scenario with a special player. Yet, it ended in a complete disaster. The core four era in Toronto is over and a new one begins with Mitch Marner walking out the door to join Vegas.

#nhl #hockey #torontomapleleafs
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We break down Mitch Marner’s game and what his signing means for The Vegas Golden Knights

50 comments

  2. I have been a fan of the Leafs long enough to have actually seen them win a cup. I have seen every iteration good and bad since. The toxic Leafs fan base has driven away so may talented players, including several future HHOF inductees. I am sad to see to Marner go but I don't blame him one bit. He was unjustly crucified by fans and media alike for the team's lack of playoff success. He and his fiance were harassed. For all those fans who whine about Marner disappearing in the playoffs, you are full of it. He has more career playoff points (63) than Matthews (59), Nylander (58), Tavares (31) or Rielly (47). He sits 5th all time in career regular season and yes, even playoff points by a Leaf, behind only Gilmour, Sundin, Keon and Sittler, three of which never won a cup in TO. He has more playoff points than legends Wendel Clarke, Ted Kennedy, George Armstrong and Frank Mahovlich in fewer playoff games. He has 4 playoff GWG, and 12 GWA. That accounts is 16 playoff game wins. He is only 2 points back of Sittler, 4 back of Keon, 7 back of Sundin and 14 back of Gilmour. He was one or two seasons away from passing Gilmour for first place in a 108 year old franchise with 13 Stanley Cups and 60 HHOF inductees. How does that quantitative data jive with the narrative of a guy who disappears in the playoffs? It doesn't. Math does not lie but fans and media like do. I wish Mitch and his family well and hope he wins a Conn Smythe and a Stanley cup in Vegas.

  3. Matthews is no better. I would rather have kept Mitch. Matthews is our Captain. Where is he. Those mutant brothers on florida and Ottowa are twice the leader matthews is. Window closed. Our fanbase is a toxic wasteland.

  5. Reminds me of the way Leaf fans treated Phil Kessel. The thinking was you can't win with Phil. After leaving the Maple Leafs he went on to win three Stanley Cups.

  8. Nothing wrong with marner. Leafs nation is a pressure cooker. He will likely thrive in Vegas. Toronto is the kind of place that has newspapers and tv pundits discussing what you had for lunch, over analyzing everything, and quick to point blame as soon as everything doesn’t go their way. Leaf fans love to blame someone. Meanwhile the leafs never had any defense or goalie in 30 years which has a lot more to do with their lack of playoff success. Of course your scorers aren’t going to do as well when you’re playing against the better teams. Hope he wins the conn smythe in Vegas as torontonians seethe

  9. IMO the whole situation isn't about Marner. It's about the leafs having a lot of small size big skill forwards. He should have been traded years ago. The leafs would have been better off trading Marner and signing Hyman and allocating the extra cap space into other areas of need while adding either capable NHL ready players or high end prospects or both. It was always a VERY questionable choice to keep Marner, Mathews, Nylander while signing Tavares. I think Marner will do better in big games when he has his own niche instead of his skillset and size being more of a theme.

  12. My guess is his attitude will change in Vegas. Different players, management, media, environment. I don't know how Vegas keeps adding salary like this, but I'd say it's a fair gamble.

  14. Plenty of blame to go around as to why Leafs have not won a Cup since '67. Hockey is a team sport and a lot of core pieces did not play as well in the playoffs.

  16. The truth is that Marner was the best player on the Leafs. He was just a soft player on a team full of soft players.

  22. Tough to replace Marners regular season production, but come playoff time, he’s invisible anyway. The core players of the leafs have all been bad in the playoffs, but marner is the only one who wanted out and it was evident the last couple of years.

  23. Leaf tears taste amazing. Now why'd you dummies pay Tavares a ton 7 years ago when you needed defensemen and a goalie? Blame Dubas and Shanahan for this mess. Not Marner. Have fun finishing 5th in the division next year.

  25. Might work out for Marner….he won't have to dig in the corners, check anybody, he could play like Gretzky use to, waiting at the blue line for a pass….

  27. It disgusts me the way fans scapegoat single players like this. Do you not think they want to win as badly as you want them to win? Like they spent 20+ years constantly practicing, skipping out on a lot of the fun parts of life and being berated by fans and the paper just to say "Game 7? I'ma take it easy tonight."
    No, they want to win. They want fans to stop harassing them. They want to be able to go out and eat with their family without someone yelling at them about being a choker.

    So what if they're paid a certain amount. They dont control the salary cap, that's the way it's supposed to work. Every year a small amount of top talent resets the new high. Marvin Miller designed it that way with baseball's free agency, restrict the amount of talent so they go for top dollar. He's a top dollar talent so he gets top dollar. Its not his job to say "Knock me back 20% and use it to buy other players." First of all, the NHLPA would view you as a traitor. What would you do at your job if a coworker told your boss or the customer "Yeah just pay me less I need to do a better job?" You would be livid because their personal feelings just created a precedent everyone else has to be measured against. The only time that ever flies is late in career guys who take a big paycut after having already made their millions to be a veteran presence on a team, aka they're not commanding the top prices to begin with.
    And what if they did take the cut? Do you know how you're going to turn 1.2mil into a meaningful change to your roster? Do you think you can just walk up to any player and go "here's an extra million over their offer, come to me." No. It changes by sport. In some RFA's previous team has first rights of refusal, they can match any offer to keep them and are the only ones who can offer a contract of the maximum +1 year, making their potential deal the most stable. If they're good enough to command that price, their current organization is just going to meet it and be very hostile towards you in the future. You'd be able to sign two guys on two way league minimum contracts. Those are where most of the true value players come from, but its also where most of the "never panned outs" go as well.
    TLDR- Their salary means nothing to you. You know nothing of the inner workings of free agency, the player market, the inter-GM relationships. Mentioning how much they make is basically you screaming "My opinion is worthless please ignore me."

    3% of the teams win every year with every team comprised of the best athletes at the sport they could find. Its not just your Sunday Beer League games where you can be the hero by stopping at 6 drinks before the game and having a massive performance advantage because of it.
    If Marners tactics werent working in the postseason, you want to know why? Because teams relentlessly scout and plan how to take out the strongest elements of a team. His tactics not working are indicative of a coaching failure that they didnt switch it up and have him do something else, because obviously the top players are going to be clamped down on the entire series. And that's exactly what Florida did every step of the way, clamp down on the stars.

    I just feel bad for these players because people think "He makes millions of dollars" means they stop being human or are suddenly required to win a championship. The 60 other guys on that payscale would like a word about their promised championship as well.

  33. Eichel only had one goal during the VGK short playoff rum. Conner McDavid rated the best player in the NHL was non-existent in the Stanley Cup finals! The Winnepeg Jets goalie Halibuk is a stone wall during the season and a seave, during the playoffs. Rantanen killed his former team the AVS but could not do anything against the Oilers. Sometimes different surroundings help a player. VGK has been to 2 Stanley Cup finals and only missed the playoffs one time, which is incredible for an expansion team. Coach Cassidy will make sure that Marner earns his keep. If I were a Leafs fan, I would be more upset with Tavares, who has never lived up to his big contract.

  34. Having had this conversation many times, I ask you, 1) if they would be in the playoffs without him? 2) playoff hockey is far different. It is the coaches and management who have to devise a plan to succeed. Mainly secondary scoring and defense.

  36. This has to be the most frustrating and humorous Leaf move since the Sitler, McDonald, Thompson years and when the organization tore apart the highest scoring line in Leaf history. This is like Pocklington giving the gift of the great one to LA. Meanwhile there's another big guy on that Leaf team who gets his fingers slapped (maybe) for not showing up in the playoffs. Marner is either going to come back to bite them in the ass or just slowly go to sleep on his bed of money. I get why the fans are so frustrated but Marner is not the reason for the failure and if you think he is, then there's 20 odd other guys to blame as well.

  42. The Leafs and Oilers did not have the dominant goalie you need to win the cup. A good goalie does not cut it, you need your goalie to be consistant and one of your best player.
    It’s a confidence thing for your team.
    But great goalies don’t always win it.

  44. Years ago a GM said that having four players eating up 50% of your teams payroll would never work. He was right. 
    Now was the right time to break the pattern.

  45. BS video.. Marner doesn't need to change his game for the playoffs, but needs to be around players that take care of the other stuff during the playoffs. That's the problem. Reinhart doesn't change his game during the playoffs another great 2 way player, but has Bennett and others that play a different style that allows him to be him

  50. Marner is similar to the phil kessel conundrum; great player to add into the fold, not a player to build your team around.

    Looking forward to willy taking #1 RW job like he shouldve 5 years ago. Hopefully they still have gas for another couple runs.

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