Setting 2025-26 Season Expectations For The Winnipeg Jets TOP Line…Will They Do It Again??
Can the Winnipeg Jets topline recreate last year’s success? Let’s dive into it on tonight’s episode of Locked on Winnipeg Jets. You’re Locked On Jets, your daily podcast on the Winnipeg Jets, part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. Hey friends and welcome to tonight’s episode of Locked On Winnipeg Jets, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. I’m your host Harrison Lee, an avid Winnipeg Jets fan and an online blogger. You can follow me on Twitter at hl living loco and at l winnipeg jets. Thanks for making Lockdown Jets your first listen of the day every day. If you enjoy what you’re hearing, be sure to like, follow, and subscribe on all of your favorite podcasting platforms and YouTube. Doing so, of course, is always free of charge and ensures you never miss another episode. Most of all though, we just love and appreciate your support. Tonight’s episode, we are taking a little bit of a look ahead to next season. Obviously, it is a little premature, but you know, for the Jets, this is uh a pretty big summer, and I think a lot of us have big questions about how likely is it that so many players on this team sort of recreate this past season success. Part of the reason that we’re doing this series this week is I will be out for the next several days. So, I wanted to make sure that you had some conversation material for uh the next week or so. And hopefully the Jets don’t do anything crazy. I’ll probably give a similar disclaimer before each episode just so you have some context if you are jumping jumping in a little bit uh later in the series. But for the first episode, I want to talk about the top line. This has been uh one of the more controversial top lines in the NHL for a lot of reasons. You know, my personal thoughts on it. Um, you know, the Jets top line for the past several years has kind of been good in a lot of ways. And when you think about the finishing and talent, yeah, you would think that Winnipeg’s top line is among the most elite. And last year, on paper, it scored, you know, technically quite a few goals. It was one of the top scoring lines in the whole league. The challenge with the first line has been that the reason it finishes so many chances is because it is played more than any other line combination. I think they played over 200 minutes more than the next closest line combination, which is pretty darn crazy. Every other team in the league does tend to change their first lines. And when you look at the actual uh uh rate adjusted stats for this top line in terms of scoring and production, they actually fall more middle of the pack compared to other top lines in the NHL. I I wouldn’t say it was bad necessarily, but you might be thinking more uh I would say break even in some uh categories, especially in in chance creation. Uh while the actual gold production was good, but not like absolutely insane once you kind of break down and adjust for uh per 60 rate stats. So again, a very interesting trio and certainly from the the previous season, a huge step up. Now, we have seen a lot of the guys on this top line have careerhighs in points. The first one, Mark Schiffley, had 87 in 82 games, which was a pretty noticeable jump compared to the last few years. Um, he’s generally been hovering around the 70 odd point mark for the last three or so seasons. And then this past year had a huge boost in production. Partly driven by the power play. Partly just driven because, you know, if we’re looking at who really improved on this line, Kyle Connor took one of the biggest overall steps in his level of play that we’ve seen throughout his career, which KFC’s had a long career, right? And so for him to have such a noticeable jump is is really noteworthy. Now, has Shiffley actually posted above 80 points before? Yeah, he has twice in his career. and it’s not happened in a very long time. The previous season was 18/19, which was the year uh after, of course, our illustrious uh cup run that ended just a little bit too prematurely in the Western Conference Finals. And then two years prior in one of his arguably best seasons as a Jet, 1617, when he was a two-way dominant force, that was when Shiffley was probably playing the absolute best overall hockey of his career. So, it’s been a little bit, you know, he hasn’t really been over a point per game in a while. Uh, the last time that he was um consistently was probably yeah, somewhere around 2020ish. Uh, he had a couple of good runs there and then of course um co kind of threw a lot of things in those seasons in a a weird state. I think for this upcoming season, I do think 80 points is is pretty much a given for him. I I do feel like his production this past year is is repeatable. Uh what will be interesting is, you know, his goal scoring because usually when he posts a big year like this, he scores more than 35 goals. Uh he did it this year. He did it in 2018 and 19. He did not do it in the other 80 point uh season, which was 1617. But had he actually stayed um throughout the the full 82 game season, maybe he would have had a couple of extra goals uh to sort of hit that 35 mark. But usually if he’s hitting these points totals, he is getting um you know 80 plus in a season, which is great, right? That’s first line center production. That’s what you’re looking for. And I think with Shley, you tend to know what his game’s going to be. He’s going to be elite offensively, especially with the right linemates. And usually the defensive work is probably going to be a little on the rougher side. It’s not really been a hallmark of his game for the last several years. And I don’t expect that to necessarily change, but I do think, you know, for the duration that he’s able to play this season, assuming that he has a relatively healthy season, he’ll probably drop another 80 plus point season. Uh I I might anticipate it going more towards like 82 or 83 points, maybe in that range. I just feel like the Jets power play may take a slight step back. We’ll have to see. Uh, I know I’ve gotten some push back on uh on Twitter about, you know, just how important Eers was, but for some context, Eers had a hand um and and an assist on like a third of the Jets power play goals this past season. So, I don’t think it’s going to be, you know, just a a minor step back for this unit. We could see them look more like not necessarily league average. I think they’ll be pretty decently above league average, but they might be more top 10 than top one. So, just keep in mind for that that could be a thing. and that’ll certainly impact Shiffley’s uh scoring rates this year. Um, a lot of his scoring this year, 25 points of his 87 came on the power play. So, he might have a little bit of a drop. Not a lot, mind you. I I’d only imagine just a couple of points. If we can find a way to squeeze out more even strength production from him, that would be a a really big boost for this team. The 5v5 play from Shley has generally been solid, but I wouldn’t say it was outstanding and spectacular. I think it’s been good, but again, you know, the defensive work hasn’t exactly been there the last several years and uh the overall offensive production has kind of come and gone in in streaks. He’s, you know, a good maybe even great center, but I don’t think, you know, when you look at the top contenders, we’re not talking about him oftent times in the McKinnon range or the McDavid range. He’s in perhaps the most elite contenders like a 2C, but for the Jets, he’s their 1C. And that’s going to be the way it is for the remainder of his career is my guess. Uh not until he really starts to slow down and age out and maybe the Jets have a new future 1C will he slide into that second line role. But again, you know, if you pair him with the right linemates, Shley for me can still be a game-breaker. Sometimes I feel like he does get a little more stick than I think is warranted. Mostly in the seasons where he’s really bought in and driven. I know the kind of player that he can be and so it’s very obvious when he’s not really engaged and not feeling it. But the last few years, Bones kind of turned him around. Like Rick really got him committed, uh, driven, really bought into the whole system. And I feel like Shiffley has been, um, just a very rejuvenated player the last few years. He’s smiling more. He looks happier in press conferences. And you know, this past playoff run, it was just it was absolutely one of the most gutting feelings I’ve ever had as a fan to see him, you know, blaming himself for what happened in uh what was it, game six or game five. But uh you know, it is what it is, right? The Stars were just the better team. It all came down to a difference of error margins and stuff and it was absolutely not on Shley for that penalty. He had to do it. I get it. It’s really unfortunate, but that’s just how the sport can be. It can be a very cruel sport and I’m hopeful that one day he can kind of find a way to get his ring and sort of push those memories to the past. Sometimes to really rise to the top you have to stumble once in a while and hopefully that was his moment where you know he’ll come back better and ready for this upcoming season. So I think Shley if we’re looking at guys who could repeat uh close to their careerh highs, he’ll be doing that this year. Uh the past couple of seasons he’s just gotten better and better overall and so I’m expecting a big year from good old Mark. Now, his linemate Kyle Connor is a very interesting one. I’ve got a lot of thoughts about KFC, and I want to talk about whether or not he can repeat his level of success because that’s going to be really important for this Jets team and what their top line does going forward. Summer sports are in full swing, and whether you’re all about baseball under the lights, golf on the green, or high stakes soccer action, FanDuel is the best way to make every moment more and even more exciting. You’re already following the action, so why not make it a little more thrilling? With FanDuel, you can get in on the game while your friends are getting sunburned on the beach. They have stats tracking for everything from goals to assists to points scored in a game. Uh they even have score predictions for games as well if you think you know the final score line for a given moment. 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Uh these are not guaranteed, but I think we all kind of know who’s going to be on the first line, right? It’s going to be Shifley, Connor, and Valardi barring a big surprise or injury. So, uh, if we’re looking at, you know, Shley, we just talked about him likely putting up really good numbers. Connor, I I do think is also going to have a very strong season, but this year, even by his standards, he almost had a 100 point season, which the Jets have never had. That would have been an absolutely crazy accomplishment, and he came three points shy of it. I don’t feel like he’s going to hit the 100 point mark this year. Um, I would anticipate the Jets taking again a bit of a step back. And I think with KFC constantly generating so much offense on the power play, I do wonder if that’s going to be a more pronounced impact on his overall goalcoring record this year. He had 41 goals. He’s done a 40 plus goal season just once prior in 21-22 when he almost hit 50 and was in the Rocket Rashard mix for a bit. Uh, this year obviously he wasn’t quite on that level, but he was still really close. And I would say for his entire career, this was by far the most well-rounded, most complete g uh career season of Kyle Connor’s tenure here with the Jets. It was a lot more defensively responsible. He was backing and manmarking more. And I think it really showed in the offensive impacts, too. When you look at just how much he was able to create off the Russian on counters, there was way more for Connor to feast on this year. his commitment to a new complete topline level game really transformed his overall performance and I think it’s not really a surprise that he had a nearly 100 point season off of that. You know, when you look at KFC’s technique and stuff, you always see that there is a level of player that can be truly transformative for a franchise, but he has never played like this version of himself in prior seasons. Even in the year where he had 93 points, you know, the defensive work wasn’t really a thing. In fact, the hallmark of his career is that he’s usually cheating for offense. And yes, he will score a crapload of goals for you. Zero question, one of the best finishers in Jets franchise history. Every year, you expect at least 30 goals from him. So, you know, you’d probably look at him and say, “How could you not be on the top line?” But when you look at the defensive impacts, what he does away from the puck, uh, and how it occasionally limits him in terms of his actual offensive production because he’s spending so much time in the Dzone, it’s had a pretty dramatic impact on what he’s able to do further up the ice. But this year, that was a lot less of a concern. Now, again, KFC still has KFC moments. Like, we’re not talking about a guy who’s putting up berseron defensive results here, but even just a little bit of commitment to the back check makes a tremendous difference. And it’s why when we’re talking about extensions, I don’t feel nearly as much apprehension about it as I may have done in the previous season. Not that I I still don’t have longerterm concerns about how long he’s able to do this and how much of him is committed to this two-way effort. But assuming that the next few years uh see him do what he did this year, I really have zero qualms about signing that $12 million deal. Yes, is expensive. Yes, I think for a lot of reasons there’s an inherent amount of risk with it going into his 30s, but like listen, the Jets are going to have to pay somebody. They’re going to pay their stars and KFC is a guy that really loves Winnipeg and loves playing here. So whether you want him extended or not, you know, you’re just going to have to get used to the fact that he’s going to be a lifetime Jet for the most part. And it really comes down to what he wants to do himself, right? If he doesn’t want to be a jet, then that’s a very different conversation. But like we’ve never heard anyone uh suggest that KFC is unhappy. The guy seems to just love Winnipeg. Uh and it’s really rare that you see a player of his talent come to a city like Winnipeg and just want to stay here for the duration of his career. He’s never expressed an interest in leaving. He’s always been happy to play here. He seems to get the the cream of the crop deployments. Um, and in in previous years that might have been more of a detriment to the Jets in some ways, but the past season he was uh really earning that topline role and I was thrilled to see that that commitment to the two-way game, you know, the less uh or the reduction in cheating for offense. You didn’t see him fly the zone nearly as much and it made a huge impact. You know, nearly 100 points. Um, I don’t know if he’ll ever hit 100. I think that might be a little bit much to ask of him, but I think this year he could easily hit 90 points again. Uh again, I do think because the power play may see a little bit of a step back. Um I do wonder if maybe you see him get closer to like 91 92 points, which I I say that like it’s not the world’s most impressive feat, but 90 plus points is fantastic, right? Uh let’s not underell that. That’s pretty crazy production and I think Connor is very much in line to do that again this year. What I’m really looking for uh from him though is that continued commitment to the defensive side of the game. That is where I think a lot of his growth has really been the most uh noticeable and impactful. You know, him backing more, forcing turnovers, trying to pick off passes and jumping those lanes. That stuff I really feel like feeds more into his overall offensive success than it really gets credit for. And it’s why I think that this could be the biggest development for his career going forward. Yeah, it’s a little late for it to be happening now. You know, he’s getting close to 30 here, but as long as he commits to it and he keeps doing it, especially as maybe his skating starts to slow down, I think that that’s really uh a tremendous gift and a really big tool set that can help keep his game relevant to the Jets for much longer into his career. This season, I think it’s going to be very telling to see how bought hidden he is with it. uh because if he’s not really that committed to it, we’re going to see the old Kyle Connor. That’s going to be very fun but very frustrating. If he is more like the 24-25 KFC though, um I would actually say that that’s a really big testament to the work that Arneal and and Bones have done individually with some of these players. This is a version of KFC that Maurice never had and never seem to get. The fact that Bones and Arneal have managed to get this version of him out of this player at this stage of his career, I think is a very impressive feat. You know, for whatever gripes I may have about, you know, the coaching idiosyncrasies and some of their lineup choices, I’ll tell you one thing. They absolutely get guys bought in in a way that I don’t think the Jets coaching staffs have ever had over the past several years. We really have not seen anyone able to turn Schiffley and Connor into sort of clock back uh clock turnback sort of players, right? These guys are putting up, you know, careerhigh results. They have put up fantastic uh improvements in their overall two-way game. Not to the level of maybe the most elite, but still enough to where it makes a really tangible impact on this overall team. So, I’m very hopeful that KFC can keep doing what he’s done this past year. I am a little bit skeptical for how long it continues. But, you know, as long as he keeps doing some of this stuff. I think it’s a big step up from the previous years. I will take him backing one out of four or five times versus him doing it zero times. That already makes a tremendous difference. It’ll make the top line a lot more palatable. And when Connor does this, it not only improves his own game, but it also improves everyone around him. KFC did so much more transition work this year. I thought his overall participation in offensive buildup and and playmaking was much better and much more well-rounded. And it really showed when you look at his assist totals and that overall line’s production, it got to break even, which it really wasn’t in the previous year. That first season that they ran together was kind of awful. And so to see them do much better this year to where you know for the most part they were probably above average to to decent or even great in specific games I think is a big testament to just how much KFC himself tried to buy into what Arneal wants and to how he has really changed and evolved his game. So never say that you can’t teach an old dog new tricks because it seems like KFC has absolutely bought into the system. he seems like he’s ready to go and I anticipate another big season from him. Uh I think the only thing that you worry about is, you know, what happens if he gets hurt because then you start to run into some real challenges. We saw last year uh or in in 2324 the year that he missed a good uh what 15 20 odd games. That was rough for the Jets offensive production. So hopefully he has another 82 game season. uh he’s not a guy who tends to miss a lot of time and so when he does miss time it is fairly noticeable with the topline deployments. So cross your fingers full healthy season KFC dropping another 90 plus point year coming right up. The last guy on this line is probably one of the harder ones to figure out. Gabriel Valardi. Uh I don’t quite know what to make of this game to be honest because there’s a version of him that I do think the Jets have yet to see. and we’ll dive into which version we are going to see this upcoming season in just a moment. Hey friends and welcome back to this episode of Locked on Winnipeg Jets part of the locked on podcast network your team every day every day. Thank you so much for rejoining us in tonight’s show as we’re just wrapping up with some final thoughts on this Jets top line. Obviously, we are doing season predictions ahead of next year. A little early and premature perhaps, but we do know at least a couple of line combinations that are likely to be uh pretty consistent. And CSV probably one of the most easily predictable lines in the league. We know the Jets don’t really change their top line. Their guys tend to dictate those terms and so we expect to see our usual trio together again for better or worse. Um, but one of the guys that I have a harder time sort of figuring out is Gabriel Valardi. Now, I like Valardi a lot and I’ve always been a big admirer of his ever since his uh early Kings draft days. I had actually thought the world of him as a prospect and so I was really shocked when he had so many injury problems and I didn’t really know if he was ever going to be an NHLer. Uh, I’ll be honest, I thought that he might have his career completely derailed by some of the very significant upper body stuff that impacted him at a young age. Here we are, fast forward, you know, six, seven years on, and he’s finally starting to really carve out an NHL role. But I think the hardest thing for him has really been his health. This past season was the most he’s ever played in a full year, and it was only 71 games. That is a lot for a guy uh, who has been hurt a ton in his career. But for your average top liner, that’s probably a little disconcerting that this is, you know, the first year that he’s almost gotten closer to that 80 game mark. With Gabriel, uh, I like him as a really good power play specialist. I think the thing that’s really kind of stuck out with his game that’s been a little harder to read into is the 5v5 play, right? uh his mobility at times can be questionable and when you see him under pressure and fighting for the puck. I feel like his uh maybe some of his health injuries, some of his lack of u rotation ability and stuff starts to become a little bit more of an issue. And you know, I I don’t quite know how you work around that. I think if you pair him with a really strong forch checker, maybe it’s a little bit of a different story, but I think if you’re asking him to be a primary puck carrier, it’s less effective for him. I think that’s why KFC doing so much more of that transition work this year is a really big boost because Gabriel Valardi just seems to be not as uh great along the walls. You know, he’s great when he’s around the goalmouth and in those tight spaces, but if he’s, you know, trying to win puck battles against forwards um near the half wall and stuff, he’s not really the same guy. And so, I don’t quite know what his year is going to hold for him. For one thing, you have to wonder what his health is even going to look like. And when you look at his deployments the past couple of years, I do think some of that kind of bleeds to how much he’s playing compared to everyone else. KFC and Shley are playing like 20 minutes a night. Valardi is playing at most up to 18 on average. So that probably tells you, you know, the time on ice deployments are uh a little more measured, a little more careful, and Winnipeg trusts their two first star guys ahead of Ardi for all situations. So, Gabe, you know, I I do hope that he’s able to stay healthy this year. I think there is a version of him that can be a point- per game player, but I just don’t know if he’s going to find it with the Jets. And with the increased pressure on the top line this year, uh I do feel like he’ll probably be more in the uh 2/3 point per game sort of range than the point per game guy. He’s traditionally been closer to like, I don’t know, 7/10en of a point per game or or maybe twothirds in some seasons. Um, again, it’s just really hard to predict with him because he gets hurt so much. And a lot of his game in the past year has really started to come on the power play. It it started happening in the first year with the Jets. It’s really been noticeable this season. Almost a third of his production, actually getting even closer to a half of his season’s production came on the power play. And that’s great, but that’s not really what I think you were hoping for. If you’re putting a guy on your top line, you needed to you need him to do more uh at 5v5. And I think that’s where um I do have some questions. If you filter out those power play points, you know, he had 36 at even strength, which is good, but you’re talking 36 and 71 games. That’s half a point at 55, which is kind of a little underwhelming in some ways. So again, I think a lot of this has probably been more health influenced. And I don’t think that this year he was at 100% even for the games that he was playing. So, uh, this year I I think he’s going to have to get a lot of his production again on the power play. I would anticipate probably another 20 plus point power play season, maybe even 10 to 15 goals there. Um, I think his overall season record will probably be, should he play 80 plus games in the 70 point range, uh, probably on the lower side of that. I think you’d you’d be happy if he played 82 games and got like 71 72 points. Happy might be an understatement. You’d probably be thrilled with that. Uh I would anticipate that he’ll probably miss between 10 and 20 games though this season. So if that happens, you’re probably looking more in the low 60s again for his points production. Not a bad thing, but I do feel like uh his his future with the Jets to me is slightly in question in some ways. Um, not that I think the Jets are really eager to to to get rid of him, and I personally wouldn’t be myself either, but I do wonder, you know, if you have longerterm injury concerns with him, what do you do? You know, do you commit to him with term? How do you feel about his his tenure with the Jets? You know, it’s very early in his career with Winnipeg so far, so I don’t want to read too much into it. I think this season’s probably going to be a very big barometer for what happens in the coming years, but you know, he’s an expiring RFA this summer. So, you’ve got to make a decision in in some capacity. And I really feel like the four-year deal is probably the safest bet. If things really don’t work out, it might be better to let Valardi seek greener pastures elsewhere. But if he can really start to put his 5v5 game together and find that consistency, find the line combination that really gets him going and gets him uh to be a productive member at 5v5, you’re going to see a really great player. I I still think that he’s got another gear to show and I think it’s just finding the right combination of of teammates. I don’t think CSV is the way to get him out of that. I think on the power play, absolutely those guys are dynamite together, but at 5v5, I don’t think that’s really the best line fit for him. I know people will disagree, but if you look at the 5v5 production with him, I think that there’s a story there and one that’s probably worth uh figuring out how you can get him to that elite level. I still think that Valardi has so much more to give this team. I think if he gets away from Connor and Chely, we’ll really start to see it with the right uh teammates alongside him. Maybe you try a slower line with Perfetti. Um it didn’t really work in the past and I’m not sure I would do it again this time, but you know, I don’t want to rule it out. I think my personal preference would to be would be to see him with Lowry. I feel like if you put him with a zone domination crusher type like him, I think Valardi will really start to take off. Let him do the perimeter pickoff play. Let him attack the faceoff circles and slot area when he’s got space to work. And I think Valardi will turn into that beautiful butterfly and really show why he was such a highly touted prospect seven or eight years ago. Uh I have a really big soft spot for Valardi. I really hope that he stays healthy this year. Um, I’ve really been rooting for him ever since he became a king and it’s just a shame that it’s it’s had so many issues uh throughout his career early on that have really derailed a lot of the normal development and stuff that you typically see from a guy like this. So, hope he can stay healthy. Love him. He’s a great player. I know he’s uh really started to find his groove and fit in with Winnipeg. So, hopefully that all pans out. But curious to know how you feel about him and how you’re feeling about this top line. Do you feel like this Jets first uh trio is going to maybe take a step back this year? Do you think they’re going to put up even bigger numbers or stay about the same? Drop your predictions in the comments below or at my social medias at HL LLC and at l Winnipeg Jets. For tonight’s episode though, that’s going to be all the time that we have. Tomorrow’s episode, we are going to be taking a look at a potential second line, which is one that could be uh one of the weaker Jets second lines that we’ve had recently. But because it’s a little bit of a mystery box with Jonathan Taves, we’re just going to have to wait and find out. We’ll chat about that all in tomorrow’s episode. So, see you then. Have a great night and as always, go Jets.
The 2025-26 NHL season may still be a few months away, but it’s never too early to think about how the Winnipeg Jets may fare. For the Winnipeg top line, what can we expect from some of the team’s biggest scorers? Will we see the 5v5 game improve as it did this past season? Can Kyle Connor continue his elite-level performance and growth? Will Gabriel Vilardi finally stay healthy long enough to put together a season’s worth of strong play?
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