How Will The Winnipeg Jets Third Line Fare WITHOUT Adam Lowry At The Start?
The Winnipeg Jets third line is going to look a little bit different to start the season, but what might it be once it’s back to full strength? Let’s chat about that on tonight’s episode of Locked On Winnipeg Jets. Your Locked On Jets, your daily podcast on the Winnipeg Jets, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Hey friends and welcome to tonight’s episode of Locked On Winnipeg Jets, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. I’m your host Terrison Lee, an avid Winnipeg Jets fan and an online blogger. You can follow me on Twitter at hliving Loco and at Winnipeg Jets. Thanks for making Lockdown Jets your first listen of the day every day. If you like what you’re hearing, be sure to like, follow, and subscribe on all of your favorite podcasts and platforms and YouTube. Doing so, of course, is always free of charge and ensures you never miss another episode. Most of all though, we just love and appreciate your support. Tonight’s episode, we are chatting a little bit and continuing our series on how the Jets are uh likely to perform this upcoming season. Now, obviously, these lineups are sort of based on what has been predicted. First two episodes, we talked about the top line, then we talked about the supposed second line. We’re going to focus on the third light uh third line tonight and this one is going to be at full health because we know obviously Adam Lowry is probably going to miss the start of the season and that could be a a major impact on the the year and really the start to the Jets season that I don’t think has really gotten a lot of attention. But of course, you know, we we’ll we’ll dive into what he might be when he comes back and how this could really shape what the Jets need and how they approach the rest of the year once he’s healthy again. But first, let’s chat about some of the wings, right? So, Nino Nether Rider, he is probably one of our uh perennial underrated favorites. I’ve always been a Nita Rider appreciator, and Nino has been a little up and down in his Jets tenure the past year or so. Uh this year, I felt was one of the well, I don’t want to say worst seasons he’s had, but one of the most uh up and down kind of years that we’ve really seen from him. Uh the first half of the season was not particularly great. the second half he started to really have some good streaks and then he’d have a couple of games where you’d not really notice him. In the playoffs I thought he’d have some of the games where he was the best jet on the ice and other games where he wasn’t visible and so it’s just hard to really know what you’re getting with him in some outings, but traditionally Nita Ryder has kind of been that middle six dude who’s dropping between 30 and 35 points a year. I think more importantly though, he tends to be a very effective forch checker and that’s kind of been a hallmark of his game. I feel like in the 14 to 15 minutes you get from him, he’s got enough skill to be more than just a grinder, but he’s not going to be a dude who’s necessarily dropping, you know, 50 or 60 point seasons. With Nino though, I do wonder, you know, he’s always been one of these players that was drafted very highly and has always been regarded well for his elite talent and and skill individually, but it’s just never really translated to major numbers at the NHL level. It’s not like his shooting percentage is bad either. It just feels like maybe there’s something in his game that hasn’t quite let him be a a topline sort of player. and instead he’s really carved out a very interesting niche as a fantastic super underrated very versatile middle six player. Uh his careerhigh uh points was 57 and he’s not really come close to that since which is fine. You don’t really need that from him. That’s not what you’re asking him to do. With Nino though I I do wonder if at some point he needs to move to a different line. Uh, I’ve always enjoyed his game, but I feel like to some degree playing alongside Lowry maybe isn’t getting the most out of what Nino can do. And maybe with Lowry, the bigger thing is Adam just kind of needs more finishing talent around him. Lowry has been, you know, an absolute wrecking ball and a great creator on the ice, but in terms of his actual finishing talent, it’s not quite there. Nino has done some of that well, and I think, you know, with his Kane’s tenure, you really saw his shooting percentage uh have some some real good spikes. But with the Jets, it’s been a little more modest, right? Last year, uh, he had 18 goals. This past season, 17, which is pretty nice. And, you know, again, you’re getting around 35ish points with him, but I just feel like something in his game at times wasn’t as impressive as I was hoping for. The nice thing is that he’s on a very affordable contract, and, you know, he’s he’s a guy that you just really love having around. You know, he can play almost anywhere on the team in a real pinch and I think that that’s a huge asset. And you know, when you look at his deployments and third line ice time, 35 to 37 points is fantastic. You really can’t complain about it. But I do feel like there were moments this season where I just wasn’t seeing enough from him. And so when he really had those hot streaks, you you noticed it and it really stood out. This season, he’s going to have a more varied cast of linemates. My gut feeling is that when uh Taves plays 2C to start the year, we’re going to see something like the Mesnikov at 3C. If we see like a Baron at 3C, the conversation gets a little more interesting. Uh, but I would expect that the Jets are going to do their usual default. We might even see Taves there and maybe Nomesticov plays on the second line with Profetti. Uh, the Jets sometimes do their old habits and stuff, but either way, I do think Nino is likely to have a a quieter year by his standards. I would expect somewhere between 25 to 30 points. Um, I do think that the cast change, maybe some of the, you know, perhaps reduction in offensive talent around him and the complications with the injury start to the season could hurt him immediately. Not that I think he’ll have a bad year. I just think given what we’re usually used to from him, he might see some impact, right? He’s going to have a changing and rotate rotating cast of centers most likely. I think the Jets are probably going to have to scramble around to find, you know, some sort of a third line center replacement that’s maybe a little more potent than me. And it could be Baron. I don’t know. It could be. But I I just have a feeling like we’re going to see a little bit of a decline in his offensive production. Not a a big one necessarily. Um maybe maybe 25 points is way too low. we might be looking more at like 30, which again for a guy who’s playing on your third line is pretty nice. Uh I think the biggest thing that I want to see from him is just continued offensive involvement, that good forchecking ability, and more consistency. That’s always kind of been the thing with Nino is that he’ll have great games, and then he’ll go quiet for like five or six, pops up for a good streak of four to five games, goes quiet again. And it’s not just the points production that I want from him. I just want to see him engaged in winning those puck battles, forcing turnovers, creating good scoring opportunities, that kind of stuff. You know, if he can at least create chances, that’s all I’m looking for. It’s it’s when he kind of goes ghost mode that I’m a little less happy with. So hopefully this year doesn’t see a big drop off. And again, I don’t think that that’s going to necessarily happen. I just do think that the third line is going to have a lot of change. And I think it’s going to be hard for him to feel like he’s getting um consistent I you know uh I guess chemistry with his linemates. I think it’s going to be a little tricky for him to keep bouncing around between different centers and maybe even different wingers. We don’t really know who’s going to be on the right side necessarily. And so Nino could have a uh a tough time adapting and adjusting to what could be a very tumultuous bottom six deployment this year. So keep an eye out for that. But I do feel like it’s pretty safe to expect 30 points from him. I think he’ll be a a positive contributor. Uh the defensive work has never really been his strong suit, but I do think offensively, you know, the chance creation and stuff, I think that’s going to be relatively fine. Um I just feel like with Lowry not being there for a good stretch to start the season, I do wonder how much that’s going to impact Nino’s own game. And if that’s the case, I wonder if Winnipeg maybe tries to change things with how their middle six is arranged. I wouldn’t really hate this to begin with just because I feel like the middle six needed a shuffle last year. Uh Nether Rider, Lowry, and Appleton did a lot of good defensive work overall, but as an offensive unit, not quite as effective, especially once you got past the first 30 or 40 games. Once you start started to see um the actual finishing talent show up, it became a little bit of a challenge. So hopefully, you know, he continues to build on the success of previous seasons. But again, I I think that this for this third line, and that includes Nino, we will see uh a little bit of a a downturn to start the year. Might sort of level off in the second half of the season, but you know, Nino is not really young anymore. He’s getting up there in years. Not that, you know, 32 is old or anything, but at this age, you’re you’re a forchecking sort of player. You grind in the corners, that can start to to take a little bit of a toll. So, um, if nothing else, I do think Nino is going to be a great versatile option in case injuries do strike. And the Jets may actually give him a bigger role this season if they need to perhaps shuffle some of the forward lines. I think Winnipeg giving itself three really good matchup lines that maybe don’t have elite talent, you know, on every single unit, but enough to where they can kind of distribute the scoring might be the best way to go about this. And Anita Ryder in your back pocket for these opportunities is so so so nice. So keep an eye out for him. But I think the bigger part of this equation and the one that’s really got my attention for this season, especially the start of it, is what’s going on with Adam Lowry. Lowry is really one of our most important players. And I feel like no one’s really talking about the fact that he could miss anywhere from 10 to 15, maybe even 20 games if his rehab takes longer than expected. Ever wish managing your money felt easier? With Monarch Money, it can. Whether you’re growing your savings or planning a big purchase, Monarch puts you in the driver’s seat. It’s like having your own personal CFO, giving you full visibility and control over your finances. It’s more than just a budgeting app, though. Monarch Money is a complete financial command center. You can track all your accounts, investments, and spending in one place. And it’s not just about managing your money. It’s also helping you build your wealth. If you’re tired of using lots of apps, it’s a one-stop shop all in one place. It brings in all sorts of things. Whether you’re tracking expenditures like your your streaming services, maybe you’re spending more of those and then you realize and you want to cut a few. 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One of the ones that I’m really having a hard time with uh and and sort of doesn’t really seem to be getting a lot of attention is Adam Lowry. Now, I know people love Lowry and I do too and he’s probably grown to be one of my favorite players on this team in terms of captains the Jets have had. I feel like he’s been the best. Um, I love his game and I really feel like Bones really brought him back from kind of a decline where, you know, a very forchecking physical oriented player often has that decline once he starts getting closer to 30. Lowry has really bounced back in a tremendous way the past couple of seasons. He is arguably one of our most important skaters and I don’t think he really gets a lot of credit from the fan base for just how important he really is to this team. Now, I’m not going to sit here and say that he’s like Samberg level or or Shley or Hleabuk level, but he’s kind of close. Uh I’d argue he’s one of our really big secret weapons. And in fact, he does so much matchup work and feasts on that sort of weaker competition to the point where I don’t really know if there’s anyone quite like him in the NHL that’s doing what he does at the level that he does in this sort of setup. Um, Adam is is really a force of nature and so his injury and rehab process is really really uh critical to determining what happens with the Jets this season. Um, it’s why I’ve really been hammering the need for a a real 2C to take up a big spot on this team. I feel like Lowry, as much as I love him, just doesn’t quite have the finishing talent uh to to necessarily align with that. And the Jets need somebody who can really support him. Winnipeg has, you know, a very win by committee sort of approach. And so if you can find a way to really improve that higher end center depth with guys who offer really good scoring punch to to sort of pair with Lowry, I think that that gives you such a nice look. Uh Taves will probably do something for this team, but again, he’s kind of a mystery box. The thing that kind of worries me with Lowry though is he has now uh had a a hip surgery and ordinarily hip surgery has you know a fairly long recovery time and rehab time but you know the surgery has gotten a lot better, rehab has improved. It’s just one of those situations where depending on the severity of the case and what was done players who come back from hip surgery may not be the same and that’s like a permanent thing. It’s not something that’s just a temporary setback. For some guys, hip surgery is like lifealtering. And I wonder what’s going to happen with Adam. He’s 32 and the injury that he had was apparently something that’s been bothering him for like the last couple of years. Uh so just bear that in mind when you think about his past season production, whatever it is that he’s been dealing with, he’s been dealing with it for like two or three years now and still putting up some of the best two-way results on the entire team. truly an absolutely beast of a player. He’s one of those guys that I was incredibly wrong about when it came to his contract extension. I wasn’t really upset about it a few years ago. I did feel like, you know, we were talking about what three and a half or four million at the time for like a bottom six center. Kind of seemed a little expensive, but I wasn’t really mad about it. I’ve always sort of liked Lowry and I think he’s just a really good leader, a great player, and somebody who does a lot of the little details uh really well enough to where even though he doesn’t score, his forcheing and prowess in creating chaos is just so overwhelming that it doesn’t really matter. Um, but he has grown into a force on the ice and in the locker room. And so his absence for up to maybe 15 or 20 games could be a real problem for this team. Uh Lowry is probably one of those centers that you just can’t really afford to lose. He really doesn’t miss games. He’s traditionally played almost every game per season that he’s been a Jet. Uh there have only been a few where he’s really missed 10 or more games. It just does not happen with him. And so I really don’t know how Winnipeg is going to handle uh his absence. He usually has a pretty good faceoff win percentage. He’s one of our most responsible defensive players and, you know, he’s such a wrecking ball on offense that even though the points production is not there, the chaos that he creates with his possession and stuff really sets up the top lines to do their work against softer and softened up matchups. But with Lowry gone, I I just don’t know how you handle this. Um, and I say the the longer timeline just because I think there is a risk of that. uh he last I heard this past week was still on crutches and if that’s the case the the rehab timeline may be pushed back a bit. Now I’m not saying that he’s going to go back into the next calendar year. I don’t think it’s anything that extreme but you know October’s not that far away and if he’s not good by October and is looking more towards a November start you know you could be missing a minimum of 10 to 15 games. So you got to be prepared for that. Now this is why you brought in Taves, right? But Taves, two years off of his last N any stint, not going to be the same thing as what Lowry was bringing this past season. And I just I don’t really know what we’re looking at with him. Lowry is truly one of the guys that I think is an unheralded hero for the squad. He’s one of the leaders in expected goal share percentage. He is one of the guys who does the most defensive work on the team. and he really pulverizes those depth matchups to where most opposing bottom sixes are absolutely terrified if they have to go up against the Lowry line. So, um I’m hopeful that when he comes back all of these concerns are relatively unfounded, but hip surgery is very serious. It’s a big thing and so what happens with him really might shape how the Jets have to arrange their their lineup matchups. And if that’s the case, it may also force the team to make some really needed changes to the top nine. I’ve often advocated for the idea of splitting Connor and Shley in part because you just need to really distribute the talent on this team and Connor and Shley apart tend to do a lot better work uh because they get good linemates to support them than when they’re together. This past year not as much of a problem but in previous seasons definitely the case. And honestly, with this team just needing more speed across the lineup in general with so many slower veterans brought in, maybe this is the time where, you know, in the absence of Lowry, you start to really explore how you can distribute the talent a little more to give the Jets a good threeline rotation. Um, now I I know how this team’s probably going to do things, and I’m not really shocked about it, but hopefully Winnipeg kind of comes into this this uh this uh start to the season looking to experiment. I think that that’s really helpful. I think Winnipeg kind of needs to think outside of the box. And you know, Lowry when he comes back is going to be a bit of a mystery box himself. Just like Taves, we don’t quite know what he’s going to be like. Uh a surgery this intensive and invasive could have some really long-term impacts or maybe he comes back and it’s like he never missed a step. I know that for the uh duration that he’s out, I’m going to really miss him. Lowry is our captain. He’s the heartbeat of the team. And you know, sure, he might not have the the prestige or the importance and impact that maybe a Hella Buck has, but I’ll tell you one thing, there’s really uh very few skaters on this team that I put above Adam in terms of importance to how the Jets attack, how they build, and what they want their team to do tactically. So, please, whatever happens with Lowry, I hope he comes back. I hope he has a speedy return, and that when he does come back, he’s healthy and good to go. We already know that he’s played through some serious stuff the past couple of years and look at how good he’s been. So, I’m hopeful that that’s more of what we see from him, especially postrehab, and that he doesn’t really miss much of a step. He’s really grown into a guy that I’ve come to love in a way that I never expected. Um, he’s one of my favorite players. I know he’s a fan favorite, and with how the Jets are, he is truly uh one of the most important pieces of what Winnipeg wants to do going forward. So, curious to know how he fares and what they do with him. You know, I’m very curious to know uh who they replace him with, too. Because if it’s Baron, uh Morgan could be an intriguing linemate that can maybe get a little more juice out of that third line. If it’s Nemesikov, you’ll probably see more of a defensively oriented group, which is fine. But I I do feel like getting some more finishing talent for that third line could really boost what you get out of that trio. And speaking of finishing talent, the guy that might be willing winning to uh winning that spot out of camp and actually bringing that finishing talent is Nikita Chberov. But I I want to say Chimberov is going to have some awards and I think people need to be prepared for that. Let’s chat about what that might look like coming right up. Hey friends and welcome back to this episode of Locked on Winnipeg Jets, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Every day, thank you so much for rejoining us in tonight’s episode as we’re chatting a little bit about uh season predictions for a lot of our our forward skaters and stuff this week. And one of the guys that I think has perhaps gotten the most attention as making the team uh out of camp this coming year, I think a lot of people are expecting Nikita Sherikov to be a Jet this season. And I’d agree. I think Chubberov was really lined up to be the guy once Appleton left. And now that Mason is gone, Chubberov is going to fill in his spot. Chubberov is a very interesting player because on the one hand, I think people have really talked him up as this elite top six talent. And on the other hand, the production that we’ve seen from him and what he’s done with the moves suggests more of a modest middle six guy. you know, you look at his overall points production and, you know, the past season with the Moose, look, Manitoba was really bad and so I don’t want to read too too much into this. At the time that he got injured and broke his ankle, uh, you know, he had one of the top scorers on the team, but I I think overall what you saw with him the previous season, 47 points in about 70 games is probably not far off what he would have done this season. I think his scoring rates were very similar this year. Uh a little over half a point per game and I wouldn’t be shocked if that’s what he did this this year had he had a full healthy season. The thing with with Cherov is that offensively he’s a little buzzaw, right? He’s going to constantly work below the goal line. He’s going to want to grind along the walls. He’ll want to create opportunities. And he has a really special release. Uh I wouldn’t say like it’s a release that’s going to surprise people the way that Lise does, but it’s very fast. It’s very sneaky. It’s very accurate and I think he’s going to pot in a full-time NHL role somewhere between 15 or so goals. I feel like that’s a very fair expectation. I think he’s got that extra level of of finishing talent that maybe the third line has been looking for. Not that Appleton was terrible, but we all kind of saw the empty net. I think Ashov maybe pots that opportunity. Uh Nether Rider himself pots a decent number of chances, but maybe doesn’t have the world’s greatest release. Lowry or whoever the center is likely to be on that third line role until Lowry comes back. Probably going to be in a similar boat, right? Nomesh Noikov is not a crazy finisher. Lowry, even when healthy, isn’t a crazy finisher. And so Shikov brings much needed skill. The thing that I want to point out, though, is that defensively, Sherov’s not really present, right? He’s not going to be the best at winning puck battles. He’s not going to be the guy that tracks back really aggressively. And I think the deaw awareness in the zone tends to be a little wanting. Uh this is just one of those things where he’s hopeful to maybe improve that at the NHL level, but I feel like it’s going to be something that’s going to take some real growing pains. And so having a more defensively oriented center down the middle is probably important for him. And I think this is where, you know, either a Lowry or an ASnikov can probably coach Shippov a bit. Now, I do think Tripov is still going to be very good. I don’t really worry about that. I I just think people are expecting kind of earthshattering performance from him and I don’t know if I’m quite there with him. I do think that he’s one of our best prospects and likely one of the guys who’s most uh prepared to jump, you know, jump to the NHL. Uh but I do think that those warts in his game might become a little bit more apparent, especially on a Jets team this year that may have some harder matchup challenges. you know, Winnipeg is going to be starting with a lot less speed and a lot older of a roster than it did last year, and that could play into how this is going to be a big a bigger challenge for a guy like Chubberov. And so, keep that in mind. I I think he’s going to have some moments that Jets fans are going to be frustrated by, but you already saw the excitement with like five points in his first couple of games. I think a lot of folks are going to be looking at that and very excited about his future. Just measure your expectations. uh kind of in the same way that I think a lot of people have been down on Lambert and and sort of concerned that he’s not going to get up to speed at the NHL level. I think Sherov will also need some some time. He may have had a couple of goals already, but I I think that that’s a little lucky in some ways. Just be prepared for those moments where he might turn the puck over and make some really poor D reads. It’s going to happen. It’s just a part of growing his game. And hopefully playing alongside some guys who have been doing this for a while and who are really defensively responsible will sort of set him up for more success. If the Jets make a really big trade acquisition, I think Chibberov’s spot starts to look a little more uncertain. Not that I think he’s at risk of completely losing it, but if the Jets try to trade for a right-winger to replace Eers, Nyquist would probably slide into that third line spot. That would be my expectation at least. Uh, I could be misreading that, but either way, uh, I do think that Cherov’s spot would kind of come into a little bit of question. Uh, he might then slide to the fourth line, which would really change that fourth line dynamic a lot. You know, Chibberov on your fourth would be pretty dang elite. As a third liner, I think he’s an interesting punt and somebody who could really be fun to watch with some limitations, but again, I I think he’s probably a little more borderline pending what this Jets off season looks like. Uh that said, I I think of the young rookies we have, he’s most likely to make that jump. I just don’t think that Lambert’s quite at the level to where he’s seized an NHL spot. And in his tenure, uh with the Jets last year in that brief stint, I thought he was okay. I didn’t think he looked like crazy. So, uh this is probably Shimmerov’s season to really make the team. I think he might have had some NHL time more than he did last year had he not broken his ankle. That really set him back. It was very unfortunate. Um, so I’m just hoping that when he comes back this season that he’s ready to go and that he looks good because, uh, Winnipeg could definitely use a real scoring boost to the bottom six. As of right now, you know, the finishing talent looks okay, but not particularly outstanding for this Jets squad. So, yeah, man, it’s going to be an interesting year. The bottom six, uh, last year did a lot of good two-way work, but again, the goal scoring was kind of a problem. So, if you can find some way to improve that and really make this group pop, I think that that would be such a boost and and really a burden lifted off of the top six. Those top two lines have had to really carry a lot of the load. And when they can’t, you know, the bottom six hasn’t always been able to lift them up. So, Chibberov’s a step to getting there if he, you know, has his spot bounced out. Maybe you see Nyquist help with this. All these considerations can can kind of make or break Winnipeg when the playoffs come around. So, you know, the regular season, I don’t worry about it so much. the playoff and postseason. That’s where I I kind of feel like some of these vulnerabilities tend to show up in a little starker relief. So, hoping for a big year from Nikita. Uh I hope he really comes into camp and blows uh the roof off. Really hoping the same for Lambert because Lambert could really give the Jets that internal upgrade on that second line as well. So, lot of intrigue. Uh it’s probably why I’m really excited about this upcoming preseason in camp. I expect Sherov, Lambert, Joerger, all these guys to really start pushing for roster spots and hopefully it gives the Jets a lot of competition as we start nearing the start of the season. But curious to know how you feel about Chipperov. Do you feel like he’s going to have a really strong season? Do you think that some of his defensive concerns are a little bit overrated and overstated? Drop your thoughts and comments and predictions below or at my social medias at Living Loco and L_Winnipeg Jets. Tomorrow’s episode, we’re going to wrap up with the fourth line and talk about some of the guys that I think are probably uh getting roster spots on that fourth. The Jets have made a lot of signings, though, and maybe there’s going to be more competition for some of these spots than we initially expected. We’ll chat about that tomorrow. But for tonight’s show, that’s all the time that we have. Thanks for listening. Have a great night, and as always, go Jets Go.
The Winnipeg Jets season is still a few months away, but questions about the middle-6 remain. How will the third line be arranged, especially with Adam Lowry slated to miss part of the early season? Will Adam be the same force of nature he is when he returns, or should Winnipeg prepare for an un-Lowry-like season? Can Chibrikov bring the scoring presence that trio has been missing, or will Nino have to carry the offensive burden?
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