Most of the major dominoes have fallen now a week into the NHL’s free agency period. There’s still a chance Buffalo may yet trade Bowen Byram, but otherwise the biggest free agents are off the board, which leads many to expect the trade market will be heating up as the summer drags along. As usual in the recent past, three of the top targets are with the Penguins.
Friedman on 32TP says there is a ton of interest in Bryan Rust, has heard Rakell prefers to stay but it’s not his call. Erik Karlsson is an interesting one, bonus has been paid, his actual cash is really down. Friedman has wondered about FLA & DAL, but doesn’t see how that works.
— NHL Watcher (@NHL_Watcher) July 6, 2025
Today we’re looking at Erik Karlsson. Many are expecting the Pens will retain salary off of Karlsson’s remaining $10.0 million cap hit to help him fit in. As a reminder, NHL teams are allowed three salary retentions. Pittsburgh is down to zero current retentions now that the Jeff Petry and Reilly Smith previous deals have expired, so the Pens have the room there. Pittsburgh has about $15-17 million in cap space this season, so they have plenty of room on that front as well to make all the retention (up to $5 million) that they might be enticed to do.
However, the other major factor in Karlsson’s contract is a complete no movement clause. He can’t be traded without his approval of the location. It is believed Karlsson wants to win and have chance for the elusive Stanley Cup. He turned 35 this off-season, the clock is ticking.
Who could the contenders to get him be, let’s look at some that might make sense, listed in alphabetical order and some various factors (cap situation, player/team fit, assets to give up) that could shape what happens next
Carolina
Fit: 7/10 – The Hurricanes’ best two defensemen are left handed (Jaccob Slavin and the newly acquired K’Andre Miller). Their right shot depth chart isn’t that impressive with only Sean Walker and Jalen Chatfield. However, Carolina’s biggest position of need is upgrading their quality center depth, they could always go for a committee outlook on defense and focus on improving the center spot.
Salary cap situation: 8/10 – PuckPedia lists Carolina with $10.6 million in cap space, more than enough to have a little breathing room once the Penguins retain some salary on Karlsson if they wanted. The issue isn’t pure space, but whether they see RHD or center as the key priority to spend the money on
Assets: 6/10 – The Canes have some decent young players but lack picks in rounds 2-5 in the 2026 draft. Giving up a first + young player Scott Morrow in the recent trade to get Miller drains them down in this category.
Player input: 8/10 – Some players have been hot/cold about Raleigh as a market they want to be in, but the Hurricanes have been a 99+ point team for seven straight years and made it to at least the second round of the playoffs in each of the last five years. They are very consistent and just added Miller and Nik Ehlers to an already solid team. If one wants to be on a contender and team with a chance, Carolina fits that bill.
Wrap-up (29 points): The division foe makes a lot of sense. It’s not a perfect match since they need a center more than they need a defender (the mix of Slavin, Miller, Chatfield, Walker, Gotisbehere and the young emerging star Alex Nikishin isn’t a bad unit in totality)
Dallas
Fit: 6/10 – The Stars don’t have any elite RHD, but it’s not like they need Karlsson. Miro Heiskanen is the rare defender who does well on his off-hand. Heiskanen and Thomas Harley can run the power play. Add in Esa Lindell, Nils Lundqvist and the growing Lian Bichsel and it’s not like they’re hurting for a big defense add right now
Salary cap situation: 4/10 – It’s bad, but perhaps manageable. Where there’s a will there’s usually a way to make the math work, but the math has to do a lot of work (Puck Pedia has the Stars currently $1 million over the salary cap). Pittsburgh would surely have to accept one, if not two bad contracts (Matt Dumba at $3.9 million for one year possibly AND Ilya Lybushkin’s $3.25 million) AND retain heavily on Karlsson to make the money even up. Not impossible, but the more hurdles the less likely these transactions become and there are a few hurdles.
Assets: 4/10 – Dallas’s minor league system is bare, and they’ve traded away two of the next three first round picks. They don’t have a ton to offer.
Player input: 8/10 – There’s no good reason why this shouldn’t be a positive, Dallas is one of the better teams in the NHL and have added Mikko Rantanen. They are a sure Cup contender that a player like Karlsson ought to have few qualms about joining.
Wrap-up: (22 points): The Stars under frequent GM of the year winner Jim Nill have not been afraid to take bold swings. Beyond knowing that, there doesn’t look like a lot of factors working towards making them great trade partners right now for Karlsson, though.
Florida
Fit: 2/10 – When a team has Seth Jones and Aaron Ekblad already on their roster as right shot defenders, there’s no need or reason to bring on Karlsson.
Salary cap situation: 0/10 – The Panthers kept all their big players, but now they’re almost $3 million over the cap, per Puck Pedia. There’s no reasonable combo of players that they would be willing to dump who have a big enough cap situation to bring on Karlsson, even at $5m
Assets: 1/10 – Florida has arguably the league’s worst prospect pool. And they’ve traded their next two first round picks, they have almost nothing of value to offer in this situation, not that they should care about that in the least at this moment.
Player input: 10/10 – What player in their right mind wouldn’t want to join the back-to-back champs?
Wrap-up: (13 points): It’s been surprising to see Florida even tangentially mentioned as a potential Karlsson destination. They would have had to go that direction before adding Seth Jones. Now that they’ve got him plus re-signed Ekblad, there’s no more room.
Ottawa
Fit: 6/10 – Ottawa could use a right shot defender, but they have offensive-minded blueliners in Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson that can take care of power play and puck moving duties.
Salary cap situation: 8/10 – Toss Nick Jensen ($4 million cap hit for one year) into the trade and have Pittsburgh retain a bit and there’s plenty of space to make this happen on the cap front.
Assets: 7/10 – The Sens have to forfeit their 2026 first round pick to the NHL but otherwise have decent young players and lots of picks in their arsenal.
Player input: 7/10 – Karlsson’s wife is from Ottawa, and the Sens have a new owner, GM and coach since he left. If his main goal is to join a solid contender then this might not be a priority, but there’s some poetry in trying to go full circle.
Wrap-up: (28 points): Perhaps both player and team will be looking forward and not for a reunion, but on paper there is a lot that makes sense from a 30,000 foot view.
Tampa
Fit: 9/10 – Tampa’s best two RHDs are Erik Cernak and…Darren Raddysh? Yeah, they could use Karlsson in a major way to help boost their puck moving abilities. It’s a big fit since Victor Hedman and Karlsson are known to play tremendously well together for Team Sweden’s over the years (including at the 4 Nations, where Karlsson played as well as he has in a long time).
Salary cap situation: 7/10 – It’s not terrible in Tampa, who have about $3.5 million in cap space. Send Oliver Bjorkstrand ($5.4 million) to Pittsburgh and get some retention and we’re just about there already.
Assets: 6/10 – Tampa trades picks like they’re going out of style, but they do have a few picks and prospects to offer.
Player input: 9/10 – Tampa is a contender, throw in the Hedman/Karlsson relationship, warm weather, no taxes, and a spot considered by many to have one of the best/classiest combinations of ownership/management/coaching and there’s not much negative to worry about here.
Wrap-up: (31 points): There’s a lot of dots to connect that make a lot of sense with this possibility. Tampa is a bold team that’s trying to extend their window, they could use a player like Karlsson and it’s tough to imagine the player turning down the opportunity.
Vegas
Fit: 8/10 – Vegas has an Alex Pietrangelo-sized hole in their depth chart right now after surgery will keep the defender out for all season (and possibly for good). Moving Karlsson in to fill it carries some measure of sense.
Salary cap situation: 7/10 – Puck Pedia has Vegas right up against the cap once Pietrangelo goes to LTIR. That’s never seemingly stopped Vegas before from swinging and connecting on big moves. Whether that means trading someone else to Pittsburgh or in a different move (William Karlsson? Keegan Kolesar? Brett Howden? Jeremy Lauzon? Someone else?) the Knights have never been shy about flipping players and contracts away to bring in new toys. There’s not a lot of space to work with, but no one does better at creating space than Vegas.
Assets: 7/10 – Vegas has a few decent prospects. They’ve already traded their 2026 first rounder but otherwise have a full compliment of important picks from 2026-28..
Player input: 9/10 – Everyone seemingly likes the idea of joining Vegas, they’re aggressive and they tend to be in the hunt.
Wrap-up: (31 points): The news about Pietrangelo’s surgery has to put Vegas on the radar. They’ve been a franchise that lives for make flashy moves and looking to bring in Karlsson is a natural fit for their strategies in the past.
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Markets for high-profile players with full no movement clauses can be a lot more limited than many might realize or expect. Teams might send out some feelers to see if the Penguins want to drop Karlsson on the cheap and retain a lot of money to ship him out, the number of honestly interested clubs could be very limited. (After all, arguably in Karlsson’s last trade in 2023 it was Carolina fitting in the first category and pretty much only the Penguins somewhat warm on making a deal).
We’ll see how it goes this time around, but on paper at least it makes a lot of sense for a team like Tampa or Vegas to consider adding Karlsson. Carolina and possibly a wildcard like Ottawa or Dallas could be in the mix but at this point all of the various needs, fits and motivations point to Tampa or Vegas as the most logical clubs to monitor if and when the Erik Karlsson 2025 trade derby gets off to a start.