Pittsburgh Steelers News: My 2 CONCERNS With Paying T.J. Watt This Year + Why I Would Do It Anyways

Pittsburgh Steelers News: My 2 CONCERNS With Paying T.J. Watt This Year + Why I Would Do It Anyways

[Music] Welcome into Steelers Talk. I’m your host, Jack Sperry. And on today’s show, first up, my two concerns with paying TJ Watt and why I think the Steelers should pay him anyways. Then we’ll get into Justin Simmons. He uh just detailed what he needs on his next team and the Steelers need to provide him this if he’s going to sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers. And then we’ll finish up today’s show with an NFL media clown who predicts a 6 and11 record for your Pittsburgh Steelers. Make sure you guys stick around to the end to see which media member that is. But thank you guys so much. We just passed 87,000 subscribers here on Steelers Talk. We are now the largest uh Steelers no news program individually run anywhere on YouTube. That’s all thanks to you guys. So, if you guys want free, daily, and informative Steelers content every single day on this channel and on this platform, click that subscribe button today and help us get to 90,000 subscribers. We are almost there. Thank you guys so much for all of your support. All right, so now I want to talk about TJ Watt today, guys. Obviously, because, you know, he’s not signed to that massive contract extension yet, and there’s, you know, a growing sense of impatience among Steelers fans uh to get this deal done. And the first thing I want to say here is that TJ Watt when healthy is still one of, if not the best defensive player in the National Football League. Um, you know, his ability to convert, you know, his explosive first step with all the different moves that he has, his ghost move, you know, his bend around the edge to win with true speed, you know, his inside counters with a really good spin move, and, you know, he’s got a really good swim move as well. He’s a really good run defender. And then on top of all that, he can drop into coverage and get interceptions and pass deflections as well as a true outside linebacker when this team asks him to do that. And then his ability to punch the football out and force force fumbles is the best in the National Football League. His impact is unmatched by anybody in the National Football League. But I do get why some people in this fan base and you know the media at large are wary about paying him now that he is past the age of 30 years old. especially a figure like $40 million or more per season like Miles Garrett got this off season from the Cleveland Browns. My two concerns about paying TJ Watt at this point in his career, especially that amount of money, especially if you’re going to guarantee a lot of that money. Number one, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy for a full season for the last four years. And then number two, you know, after the age of 30, regression is a possibility on his next contract. And if you’re paying him top of market money and he regresses, that’s not going to be a great look for the Pittsburgh Steelers and it’s going to limit what they can do from a team building perspective. But the truth is, guys, when it comes to that first point about injuries, we can point to a TJ Watt injury being what has derailed the Steelers season for the past three years. Okay, Watt is such an important piece to winning here in Pittsburgh that when he goes down, like it’s just like game over for the Pittsburgh Steelers. and he’s been injured at some point during the year three straight years and has completely derailed this Steelers season. We take a look back to 2022, Kenny Pickicket’s rookie season. He had that torn pectoral muscle late in that first game against the Cincinnati Bengals, which they ended up winning, but then he missed the next seven games. He also had arthoscopic surgery on his knee after having an injury in the preseason on that. Uh, so he missed seven games and uh when the Steelers had him on the field, they went eight and two that year. And again, that’s with Mitchell Chewbiscy and Kenny Picket as their quarterbacks and Matt Canada as their offensive coordinator. They went 8-2 and then when he wasn’t on the field, the team went 1 and6. All right, so that would completely derailed the Steelers season. If Wild would have played the entire season healthy, they would have easily made the NFL playoffs. Then in 2023, last game of the year against the Baltimore Ravens, right, to the game to get the team to the playoffs. They ended up winning the game and they ended up making the playoffs, but they lost TJ Watt to an MCL sprain and of course he didn’t play in that playoff game versus the Buffalo Bills where of course Mason Rudolph was the starting quarterback and they didn’t win that playoff game. Then we get to 2024. He has that ankle sprain in week 15 versus the Philadelphia Eagles which limited his impact that he could have down the stretch for the Steelers defense. All right, this guy was the betting favorite by a wide margin. and he had negative -220 uh negative -220 odds to win the defensive player of the year trophy last year before that injury and then after that you guys can see the production and it just wasn’t very good. He played in those four games, three regular season games in a playoff game and in those those four games, zero sacks down the stretch, zero forced fumbles, just one pass deflection and one TFL where before that he was leading the league in many of these categories before that injury. So, not only was Watt’s impact from an individual standpoint not there, it affected the Steelers defense at every single level. You guys can see here, and we’ve shown this graphic on the show a number of times, but the Steelers as a team are winning twothirds of their games last year when TJ Watt was on the field and healthy, but then after the injury, didn’t win a game those final four games. And then not only was the defense affected. They gave up 10 more points a game after the injury to TJ Watt, but also the offense almost gave almost got 10 less points per game as well. That is almost a 20 point swing from one player getting injured. And then the sacks and turnover production on defense obviously went down significantly as well. And the reason why that ankle injury really affected TJ Watt is because he at his very core is a speed rusher. And the way that he can really threaten uh opposing offensive tackles is that he’s got that explosive first step. He’s got that elite bend around the edge and offensive tackles have to get out there really fast to be able to guard against that which opens up the inside counters. But if they don’t have that threat of the speed rush from TJ Watt and after that ankle injury, he really didn’t have that threat, it was a lot uh it was a lot easier to cover him and to uh limit the impact he could have on the NFL football game there. Um and you know, I do think it’s a fair question now going through the last three years with these injuries that have completely derailed the Steelers season. Should the Steelers really be paying somebody that they are so dependent on uh to be able to stay healthy? Is that really something that they should be doing if he has a history of getting injured these past three seasons? And by the way, he’s not getting any younger and we all know with age uh means a more propensity uh to get injured. And then another fair concern when it comes to Wad is that for a player whose game centers around explosiveness and speed, you know, now that he’s getting past the age of 30, you know, it’s it’s definitely a possibility that he could lose some of that explosiveness, that he could lose a little bit of that speed. Um, and if that happens, you’re not going to see Watt be as dominant as he was when he was 27, 28, even 29. Um, you know, when he was a younger man. So, we will see what ends up happening here, guys. But, I also think it’s too late to trade him. Uh, in my opinion, the Steelers have set their course here. They have decided that they’re going to try and compete for a Super Bowl right now with Aaron Rogers, who, by the way, is on a one-year timeline, and Cam Hayward, who’s on a two-year timeline here. And the Steelers, in my opinion, can’t win a Super Bowl without TJ Watt on the roster. Now, you guys might ask, what could the Steelers get in a trade for TJ Watt? And I think that it’s likely just a day two pick for all the reasons that we’ve been laying out today. You know, he has an injury history, right? He’s over the age of 30 for his style of play. There could be some regression coming in. And then not only does the team that’s trading for him have to give up a draft pick, but they have to likely give him the largest non-quarterback contract in the history of football. So these teams are going to be looking at a TJ Watt trade and say no way we’re giving you our first round pick. We’re going to have to pay him 40 plus million dollars per season on top of all the risk that he comes with. So the Steelers would probably just get a second at best, but probably maybe even a third round pick in exchange for TJ Watt. And that’s just not enough value in return if you are the Pittsburgh Steelers in my opinion. Uh, and my message to the Pittsburgh Steelers at this point in time, guys, is I understand the concerns that you might have about, you know, guarantees three, four years into an extension, all that stuff. But too bad, man. You You have to pay him at this point in the offseason to accomplish your short-term goals. And right now, the Steelers are in a short-term goal mindset, which is to win a Super Bowl in the next two years before Cam Hayward retires. And plain and simply, guys, you can’t win a title without TJ Watt on the field. All right? Like plain and simply we have seen the impact that he has had on the Pittsburgh Steelers uh you know defense and even offense here you guys can see we looked at the 2024 impact after the injury. You just look at his general impact ever since he came to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Again the Steelers win twothirds of their games when Watt is on the field. When he’s not on the field they win less than 10% of their games. They’ve only won one game in TJ Watt’s entire career as a Pittsburgh Steeler where he wasn’t on the field. Of course the opponent points per game. You know, the Steelers defense gives up less pretty much a touchdown less per game. The offense gets affected by that as well. And the sacks and turnover production once again takes a big decline. So, if you trade them away at this point, you’re not going to be getting a player as good as TJ Watt in return in a trade at this point in the offseason. So, your team is not going to be a Super Bowl uh you know, hopeful this year if TJ Watt is not on the roster. Now, for the record here, guys, if you wanted to trade TJ Watt this off seasonason, you didn’t want to pay him all that money and you wanted to fire Mike Tomlin, trade Cam Hayward, trade Minka Fitzpatrick, draft a rookie quarterback, and completely embrace a rebuild this year, I would have been completely on board with that. I said that at the beginning of the off season. But now that the Steelers have gone down this win now kind of mindset, they have to be able to secure Watt for this season. and the strategy that they’ve chosen, uh, you know, the short-term strategy of trying to win. Now, you have to pay TJ Watt. You likely have to guarantee a good portion of his contract over three, even four years, depending on how much Watt wants. And Watt knows he has the leverage right now, and he knows the Steelers essentially have to accept whatever number that he wants at this point in time. So, what say you guys? Let me know down there in the comments section. Is TJ Watt worth more than $40 million per season on his next deal? give me a yes or a no down there in the comments section. Uh this will be the pinned comment on today’s show. So YouTube’s going to throw you an ad break here in just a couple of seconds. And when that happens, take advantage of that time. Now give me a yes or a no down there in the comment section. So now let’s shift over to free agency here where Justin Simmons is a popular free agency target in Steelers Nation right now. and he recently said that the number one thing that he is looking for in his next team uh that he is plans to sign with in 2025 needs to be a Super Bowl contender. This is what Simmons had to say uh recently. I’m being a little bit more picky where we want to go and where we want to call home the next two years, a year, whatever it is. But a contender is number one on the list right now. Okay, so the Pittsburgh Steelers are a team that he could potentially land with. The big question that I have on my mind here is how does Simmons view the Steelers? Do they view uh this team with Aaron Rogers as their starting quarterback as a team that could legitimately make a run for a Lombardi Trophy or not? If he does, then I think that he would absolutely want to come play for the Pittsburgh Steelers. If not, obviously that takes the Steelers off the table in terms of him. But I personally wouldn’t hate the signing. I think that Simmons is still somebody that plays with really good instincts. Kind of similar in the play style to Minka Fitzpatrick. Although I am a little bit worried about his ability to tackle. I believe his miss tackle rate was like 20% last year, which is just not good enough. Um, and Juan Thornnehill, I think, is probably a little bit more of a reliable tackler than Justin Simmons is at this point in their respective careers, but it definitely seems like Pittsburgh likes Juan Thornnehill. All right. I I it just seems like that they really like his skill set, that they really like how he fits in this defense as that true free safety that can tackle. um you know, he he he’s shown that he can be a ball hawk in his career as well. He’s just generally a very solid player when he’s been healthy. Now, he hasn’t been healthy the last two years. So, the last two years of film in Cleveland haven’t been fantastic, but uh you know, during his time with the Kansas City Chiefs, he absolutely proved that he could be a cog in a championship winning defense. That’s what the Steelers are hoping that he can be this year. Now, before we get into our final topic of the day, guys, click that subscribe button if you haven’t already. Like I mentioned earlier, guys, we just passed over uh 87,000 uh subscribers on this channel. Our goal is to get to 100,000 subscribers by the middle of next NFL season here. So, if you want to help us accomplish that goal today, uh we provide you guys daily Steelers videos that are in-depth and informative. We also have breaking news coverage every time the Steelers make a big move. I was on vacation when the Jaylen Ramsay trade went down. I immediately got on a live show despite that. Uh we also have weekly live shows and it’s all 100% free, guys. So, if you love the Steelers, you want daily news updates, this is the place that you get those. Click that subscribe button if you haven’t already. So, now NFL Networks Adam Rank predicts that the Pittsburgh Steelers will have a 6 and11 record for the 2025 season. Now, before you know we get into anything and we go over Rank’s kind of predictions here, he hates Aaron Rogers. All right? He hates him. And so, wherever Rogers is going to go, you could just know that Rank was not going to be a big fan of that football team. But this is how he sees the Steelers season going. Week one at the Jets, he has Aaron Rogers going to his former stadium and losing to the former Steelers starting quarterback Justin Fields, last year’s week one starter. Then the home opener versus Seattle also has the Steelers losing that game. But then three straight wins against the Patriots, Vikings, and Browns respectively to get to three and two. But then uh here on this graphic, they lose three of the next four, losing to Cincinnati on Thursday Night Football, Green Bay on Sunday Night Football, and then the Chargers uh in week 10. But he does have them beating the Indianapolis Colts in week nine. Then rattle off four straight losses along with that Chargers loss to make it five straight losses to the Bengals, Bears, Bills, and Ravens, respectively. That’s a tough stretch during the season there. Uh but then week 15 has him bouncing back against the the soft soft uh Charmin soft Miami Dolphins there in week 15. Then losing to the Lions and the lowly Browns on the road in week 17. Then finishing out with a win versus the Baltimore Ravens in week 18 for a final record of just six and 11 for Aaron Rogers, Mike Tomlin, Jaylen Ramsey, DK Metaf, and this Pittsburgh Steelers team. By the way, the Steelers won eight games with Duck Hodes. They won, you know, as a starting quarterback for like half the games that year. They won uh nine games with Kenny Picket as their starter for most games and Kenny and Mitchell Trabiscy. Uh they won uh 10 games with a combination of Picket, Trabiscy, and Rudolph. But no, Aaron Rodgers is the one that’s going to get them to go all the way down to six and 11. All right, Adam, I think this this prediction is a joke. Um, you know, I think it it has no, you know, bearing on the history of the Pittsburgh Steelers, especially under Mike Tomlin, where even if does hit the fan, like he’s able to keep things afloat and keep things relatively competitive. I think that, you know, maybe the the downside to this year, probably the very floor for me is eight and nine. And that’s if Aaron Rogers is really not it this year. But I like the defense. I like the uh, you know, the additions they made to the offense as well this year. I think this is the best Steelers roster we have seen since 2017. in quite a while and I’m excited to see what this team is going to look like this year. So, let’s throw that, you know, 6 and 11 prediction out the tra, you know, in the trash bin because it sucks. Let’s go over my updated Steelers record prediction so you guys can actually know what maybe to expect heading into the 2025 season. And yes, I’m going to predict a very fast start for the Pittsburgh Steelers. I think they’re going to win versus Justin Fields and the Jets in week one. They’ll win their home opener versus Sam Darnold. This defense will have him seeing ghosts in week two. Then week three, I think Drake May similarly young quarterback versus this very, very tough defense. I think it’s not going to be great for Drake May there in week three. Same thing for JJ McCarthy in his first season with Minnesota. It’s going to be a rocking stadium there in Dublin in week four. I think going into that week five buy, you are undefeated. Then uh coming out of the buy, Mike Tomlin is excellent and the Browns stink. So there’s a win there. You got the Bengals uh in week seven. I think they split versus the Bengals this year. So, I’m going to have them win that football game. I’m going to have Aaron Rogers get his revenge versus the Green Bay Packers and play better than Jordan Love in that week eight matchup. Now, I will have them lose uh three straight games here, Indianapolis, Los Angeles, and Cincinnati. All right, Shane Stikens done a really good job as the Colts head coach against the Steelers defense. The Chargers are a tough team on the road. And then the Bengals are a really good team coming off that physical matchup versus the Chargers. But Aaron Rogers owns the Chicago Bears. I expect him to win his final game at Soldier Field there in Chicago in week 12. Then I have them losing another pair of games there in Buffalo and Baltimore. Uh but then week 15, they get back on the horse with a win versus the Miami Dolphins at home. It’s going to be a cold weather game. Miami doesn’t play well in cold. I do think they’ll lose to Detroit in week 16, but that they finish out the season with two straight wins versus division rivals in the Browns and the Baltimore Ravens. And my updated record prediction here, guys, is 11 and5 for your Pittsburgh Steelers. I think it’s going to be a very fast start. I think that there will be some losses uh you know, in the twothirds kind of section of the schedule cuz that’s a very tough stretch admittedly. Uh but 11 and six, uh not 11 and five. That’s that’s a mistake there on the L3. But 11 and six is my updated record prediction for the Pittsburgh Steelers. That should put you in position to compete for the top of the AFC North this year, depending on how well the Bengals and Ravens do this year. But that would certainly land this team in the playoffs yet again. So, it’s your turn down there in the comments section. Let me know what you guys think. What is your Steelers record prediction for this season? I’ve got 11 and six right now, guys. Adam rank has six and 11. It’s probably going to be somewhere in the middle there. Let me know what you guys think down there in the comments section uh what your record prediction is for the black and gold this year. All right, that’ll be it for today’s edition of Steelers News and Rumors, guys. Thank you guys so much for uh making it to the end of today’s show. We got more Steelers coverage coming your way tomorrow, so click that subscribe button if you haven’t already. Until next time, guys. Here we go, Steelers. [Music]

T.J. Watt is one of the NFL’s most dominant defenders, but should the Pittsburgh Steelers commit to paying him big money in 2025 despite injury concerns and possible regression? On this episode of Steelers Talk with Jack Sperry, we break down the two biggest concerns with paying Watt, why it’s still the right move, and how the Steelers can’t win a Super Bowl without him. We also react to free agent safety Justin Simmons’ comments about wanting to join a contender, and fire back at NFL Network’s Adam Rank for his outrageous 6-11 prediction for Pittsburgh this season. With Watt’s injury history and the Steelers’ current roster strategy, Sperry gives his honest take on what comes next for Pittsburgh. Subscribe to Steelers Talk for daily Steelers news, rumors, and bold predictions from a true fan perspective!

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T.J. Watt’s Stats After Injury:
– 4 Games Played
– 1 TFL
– 0 Sacks
– 0 FF
– 1 PD

Justin Simmons On His Top Priority:
“I’m being a little bit more picky where we want to go and where we want to call home the next two years, a year, whatever it is, but a contender is number 1 on the list right now.”

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Adam Rank’s Steelers 2025 Record Prediction:
– Week 1 at NYJ: L
– Week 2 vs. SEA: L
– Week 3 at NE: W
– Week 4 vs. MIN: W
– Week 5: BYE
– Week 6 vs. CLE: W
– Week 7 at CIN: L
– Week 8 vs. GB: L
– Week 9 vs. IND: W
– Week 10 at LAC: L
– Week 11 vs. CIN: L
– Week 12 at CHI: L
– Week 13 vs. BUF: L
– Week 14 at BAL: L
– Week 15 vs. MIA: W
– Week 16 at DET: L
– Week 17: at CLE: L
– Week 18 vs. BAL: W

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– Is T.J. Watt worth more than $40.0 MM/YR? Yes or No?
– What is your Steelers record prediction for this season?

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