Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres (7-8-25) MLB Game Predictions, Picks and Best Bets

957 958 we’ve got Mel Kelly and the Diamondbacks at plus 118 Nick Paveta Padres’s -1 130 total of eight with some juice to the under at minus 120 Corby uh today I was actually surprised we have a guy in Mel Kelly who’s hit stre six strikeouts he has gotten to six strikeouts in one two three four Five, six, seven, eight, nine. 10 of his last 11 starts. 10 of his last 11 starts. This man has gotten six Ks, including a June 14th start against the Padres’s. One of his worst starts actually in that stretch. He gave up four runs, uh, seven hits in that game. Walked a guy, but he still had seven strikeouts in that game. Today, we’re getting five plus at plus 108. 6 plus plus 181. I’ve seen that as high as plus 240. I’m taking the five for Kelly and the six. I’m taking the ladder. I’ve even seen out there. You can get sevenks at five to one. I strongly endorse that. I I think that’s a crazy price. Again, he’s got here 10 of his last 11 starts. So, give me the five, give me the six, Corby. And then the sizzling six parlay of course, Mel Kelly, Jose Soraniano. That’s at plus 575. What do you think in this one here today? Diamondbacks Padres’s Corby. Yeah, Mel Kelly was the highest projection on my numbers. So, I I made the over four and a half strikeouts minus 120 and you can get basically plus 110, which is a pretty good price. So, I do agree with you. I haven’t bet it yet. Um, a couple things. First off, I don’t think Melro Kelly is relatively a good pitcher. Like, his stuff just doesn’t scream out to me. Not not anything crazy from a from a spin rate standpoint. Throws 91 fastball, goes fast ball, change up, cutter, little bit of a sinker. It’s just like slider curve. He throws all five pitches. He’ll use all five of his pitches, which I like. and he’s throwing sliders 7% of the time. So, right, like it it’s tough to to give him those two, but like the primary four being in the 20 like 20-ish percent, they’re just not like they’re not that great of pitches. But I will say like the one thing about Mel Kelly, and again, it was my highest projection. So, I do agree with your number here. Um, is the fact that his arm angle is so unique. It’s a lot like Andrew Heeney. Like, we’ve seen Andrew Heeny time and time again have double digit strikeouts and then also just get absolutely pelted. So, it’s one of those things if of when it’s working, it’s really deceptive. Uh, and it’s been working as of late. I I think this number is so low because Padres’s historically, this lineup has had really good numbers versus Muro Kelly, 19%. I guess that’s let’s round it up to 20% strikeout rate versus this lineup. But inevitably, like if it’s looking good, there’s no reason to assume that Mel Kelly’s deception isn’t working. So, I agree with you. I haven’t bet it yet, but uh it is my highest projection of the day. Yeah, BDub, he had hit this number in 10 straight starts going into his last outing that he only had three. So, we’re getting a little by low number here. But what do you think overall here? Dback your Dbacks slight dogs here. I like Mel Kelly personally. Nick Paveta I like also. I think Nick Nick Paveta is an excellent pitcher. One of my favorite guys to back in terms of strikeouts. He’s just got that stuff. Uh what do you think here? Dbacks Padres’s You’re muted Bub. It’s a, you know, Kyle, it’s a it’s a tough game for me. Um, I’ve got it close to a pick them, but you know, all the numbers that you cited were really good. You’re looking at location plus number 90th percentile for Paveta, and then he’s in the 92nd percentile uh from a strikeout percentage. But what’s really interesting about him is the really really for your bet home road split uh favored to the to the home numbers. Uh we’ll start with the with the BBK at home is 0.13. That’s super low. Uh on the road is 34 which is better than average but just barely. And then if you’re looking at some numbers uh from an OPS standpoint at home he’s at OPS allowed 0.550 uh away. is at.707. So, it’s almost a 200 point uh OPS disparity home versus away. And uh looking at strikeout percentage, it’s 30% at home. And uh so I think that that all the numbers that you cited are good. And I also think that the home home road splits uh favor your play, but it favors the the Padres’s more. And so that’s why I didn’t make it a play. I thought about making the Diamondbacks a play. You know, this Diamondback’s offense still number one in baseball. That’s looking at last 500 played appearances from an aggregate standpoint and uh it’s hard to play against them. So, you know, everything I’m going to pass on it. I think that your your strikeout prop is is a good play though. Excuse me. Yeah, I was actually surprised that I’m getting to five at plus money. It’s just so So, I I went back and looked on the 27th here on this show. I took me Merryill Kelly’s 6K 7Ks. We did a ladder. The 6Ks were plus 105 and the 7Ks were plus 167. Now we’re getting five at the same price and six at a better price. And like I said, you can ladder this to seven at 5:1 at some outlets. So for purposes of the show, I’m going to take Merryill Kelly 5 plus Ks at plus 108. 6 plus K’s plus 181. And then we’re going to do a little sizzling six parlay Sorano and Kelly 6 plus Ks and that’s at plus 575. Heat. Heat.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres MLB game predictions for July 8th, 2025.

Our betting experts preview the MLB game between Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres. They’ll go over the latest MLB betting trends and best value baseball odds available for their betting predictions and will share their MLB expert predictions, picks and best bets.

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