Can The Winnipeg Jets Fourth Line RISE To The Occasion For The 2025-26 NHL Season?
This is the final episode of a series chronicling what the Jets forwards might do next season. And now we are down to the mysterious and everfluid fourth line. You’re locked on Jets, your daily podcast on the Winnipeg Jets, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Hey friends and welcome to tonight’s episode of Locked On Winnipeg Jets, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. I’m your host Harrison Lee, an avid Winnipeg Jets fan and an online blogger. You can follow me on Twitter at hl living loco and at l winnipeg jets. Thanks for making Lockdown Jets your first listen of the day every day. If you like what you’re hearing, be sure to like, follow, and subscribe on all of your favorite podcasting platforms and YouTube. Doing so, of course, is always free of charge and ensures you never miss another episode. Most of all though, we just love and appreciate your support. Tonight’s episode, we are concluding our forward series for season predictions next year. Obviously, I mentioned earlier this week, uh I am out this week. So, we are doing some season predictions for our uh line by line skaters. And now you have arrived at the series finale with the fourth line, perhaps the most interesting group of players because this is where we have the most in my mind competition for roster spots. Uh the Jets have brought in Cole Kepka and of course uh Tanner Pearson, all of whom are going to be vying for some form of bottom six spot and if we see, you know, the kinds of wings that we have already in our system, it’s going to be a bit of a dog fight for some of these guys to find actual ice time. So, we’re going to dive in to three guys that I think have a pretty good inside shot at uh roster spots on this fourth line and maybe talk a little bit about some of their competition as well. But before we dive into our first guy, Morgan Baron, did want to let you know that today’s episode is brought to you by Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use code lockdown NHL for $20 off your first purchase. So, Morgan Barrett, uh I talked about him the other day as a guy who is currently uh dealing with an RFA case. Obviously, the Jets are probably keen to extend him, although not for much, I would say. Uh Morgan had a a bit of a breakout season the prior year to this and then this past season I kind of feel took a bit of a step back. Uh in 2223 and 23-24 we saw him put up around 20ish points for the Jets. This year he had 15 which is not bad. But I think what really stood out with Baron was that uh when he was playing as a wing this year, I didn’t really get the sense that he was doing all the same uh defensive and offensive work that we saw previously. You know, it felt like his reads were not as good. Kind of felt like he wasn’t really as engaged or or creating as much uh effectively and just kind of looked like a very okay fourthliner. And then they moved him to center late in the season and it seemed like he really started to take off again. Suddenly he was like a one-man army sort of wrecking guys. Kind of had a yo army sort of approach to crashing the crease and just looked a lot more effective. Um then you know the playoffs happened and he sort of went back to being regular Morgan Baron which is fine but I do feel like there’s just a version of this this guy that we haven’t really gotten consistent uh uh performances from. Like I I keep thinking that there’s untapped potential with Baron and then he’ll have streaks of like 10 or so games where you’re like, “No, uh he he kind of looks like a fourth liner, which is great. I I think that there’s a real spot for a player like this.” And certainly I like uh Baron’s overall approach, but I do feel like there are just limitations in this game that have sort of held him back from maybe being higher up in the lineup. So with uh with Baron, I do kind of feel like we’re looking at, you know, a solid 15 to 20 point guy. I expect him to probably start at center. Uh or either that or or Nesttov may get the look, but I think it’s probably Baron. Namaste is better as a winger in my mind anyways, but once everyone’s fully healthy, he’ll probably slide back to wing. Now, Baron does have a little bit of competition, and it makes me wonder how likely it is that he’s actually a jet for the remainder of this upcoming season. You know, we brought in Cole Kepka for a a little uh for just a year at a mill, not a lot. And Kepka kind of plays a not too dissimilar game. You know, he’s a high energy forward, bit of a forcheing sort of guy. Uh hits a lot and also had 17 points. In general, he does some decent defensive work and I think you’re seeing um his his first year with the Bruins looking pretty good. Kepka is the sort of player that you find waved a lot, but I think his overall game might compete with Barons. And so that’s kind of an interesting thing to look at potentially for camp. I think Kepka of the guys that they’ve signed outside of like Nyquist might have the better shot at at starting over. Maybe like a Tanner Pearson. With Pearson though, he does have the Mark Schiffley friendship factor. So maybe Keepmore on the outside looking in, but the Jets do have some decisions to make with this bottom six. I feel like they’re going to be carrying quite a few of these like bottom fourthline contracts. And so Baron may kind of be on the outs and if the Jets make some sort of a trade for a roster player to upgrade the top six, maybe Baron gets packaged up and moved back the other way. All that said though, I think Winnipeg generally likes him. I think the fan base is generally a pretty big fan of Baron. He’s big. He skates pretty well. He’s got a pretty good shot. Uh it hasn’t always reflected in some of his goalcoring outputs, but um I don’t know. I just feel like at some point he will put two and two together and become a pretty decent player. But I think a lot of it is very linemate dependent with him. He’s got a lot of the raw tool sets, but I don’t know if necessarily uh the decision-m and stuff is always there. You can very much see when he has the puck in possession by himself and he’s streaking in alone. He is fast, mobile, and he has one heck of a shot. You always see that skill there. You kind of know why the Rangers were reasonably intrigued by his game. Uh but so far it hasn’t really coalesed into anything above like a bottom six role. So intrigued to see what he does this year. Uh I I do feel like at some point he gets shipped out for some sort of a roster upgrade. I can’t explain why. It just has that sort of vibe. And given what Winnipeg brought in, I feel like there’s more competition than ever for these fourthline spots. And now you’ve got, you know, some of the kids really needing a shot at the team. And so a player like Baron, you know, as much as he’s a a nice guy to have, not necessarily somebody that I think the team is like dying to keep. I I’m sure they’d love to save some money. Probably why they’re going to arbitration here. You know, they want to try and shave off a few hundred thousand here and there. Um, and it makes me wonder what Baron’s ask actually was. So going to be a very interesting year for him. If he does stick around though, again, I would probably put him in the 15 to 20 point category. would really like to see him uh kind of bring back some of that goalc scoring ability. You know, he had a season where he was potting what 11 goals, which was really impressive. Not that eight’s anything to sniff at, but I just feel like when I saw him in the 23 24 season, I felt like he was on the cusp of really breaking out and having a bigger role with the team. And last year, you know, the step back just kind of felt a little bit disappointing for what my expectations were. So, would love to see him have a big year in camp. Uh, I like him as a really nice depth option and I think his best position really is down the middle, but we all kind of know how the Jets are. We know that they tend to play some of their centers out wide and with Nemesov liking h likely having the seniority there. Um, I’d expect Vlad or Taves depending on what happens once Lowry’s back to be your 4C. So, keep an eye out for that. Uh, but if Baron does stick around, I I think he’ll have a pretty solid season. Now, his linemate in Vlad Nemesikov is a very interesting one for a lot of reasons. You’ve heard me talk a lot about Vlad not really being a 2C for the Jets. If he does not play that role this coming season, I think it would make a lot of sense for the Jets to put him as like an elite fourth liner, but he is being paid a little bit of of cash, maybe more than you would ordinarily pay your fourth liners. And I want to talk about what happens if he sees that reduction in ice time. Have you ever decided at the last minute to head to a ball game with friends or family? Maybe it’s game day and you suddenly realize you want to be in the stands. That’s exactly where Game Time comes in. It’s the easiest way to grab last minute tickets without the stress. With the money you save on tickets, you can splurge on food, drinks, merch, and even invite a bigger group to come with you. Game time makes everything possible, and it makes uh makes buying tickets fast and simple. Prices on the app actually drop the closer you get to first pitch. 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Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use code lockdown NHL for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, create an account and redeem code LOCK E NHL for $20 off. Download the Game Time app to date. Last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. Hey friends, and welcome back to this episode of Locked On Winnipeg Jets, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. every day. Thank you so much for rejoining us on tonight’s episode as we are chatting a little bit about the Jets fourth line and what we might expect from this group as Winnipeg starts to see a lot of competition for some of these bottom of the roster spots. Now, I I know it sounds very silly to talk about the fourthline competition, but I really do feel like this is where we have the potential to see uh some big changes, some big movement, and I think that there’s real opportunity for some guys who are newcomers and maybe some of the more established veterans to uh to try and vive for some real uh role playinging, right? And one of those guys is Vlad Neomestikov. Now, Nomesticov the past year has been the Jets 2C and has played that role in the previous year. This season, I really feel like the Jets need to get away from that, right? Like the two seed messes thing just wasn’t working out that well. Now, you’ll look at his points production, 38 points this year, 37 the previous season, and ask what am I talking about, right? Why wasn’t he a good 2C? For one thing, Nasnikov doesn’t really win faceoffs, which I think a lot of people really put a lot of value on. I personally don’t put as much emphasis on it, but it would be nice to win uh at least half of those if possible. and Nomesticov was putting out like 45 to to 40% at times. So, not exactly a big faceoff guy. What you get with Vlad is a player who can generally keep up, but who doesn’t have like a lot of high-end offense. Nestnikov’s biggest value is in the forche and doing some of the hard gritty defensive work. When it comes to like wall battles and stuff, that’s really where he’ll do most of his his uh damage. And it’s not like he can’t score, but I think if you’re asking him to be a really big uh offensive play driver, that’s not really Nemesikov’s game. As a supporting middle six to bottom six forward, I think he is fantastic in this role. But if you ask him to be a 2C guy, that’s just not really what you want on a true contender. And I think the Jets kind of saw the limitations with him scoring only 11 goals per season and, you know, kind of getting in that 25ish point range. If you play him where you really should, which is more on your fourth line in very limited minutes, uh I would expect him to get around the 20-ish point range. I think if you fly uh flex him out to the the wing position rather than the 4C position, I think it would also suit his game a little more. Um I think when he’s the sort of bang and crash guy along the walls, that’s great. I think that that’s where he does so much of uh his best work as a center in the fourth line spot. Again, I don’t think it would be bad and I think it would be probably one of the better fourthline centers the Jets have had over the past couple of years. He has the veteran savvy and experience to know what he can do and can’t do and get away with, but he also brings that two-way maturity and presence that, you know, really can fortify your bottom line. And it also gives the Jets some flexibility to potentially use their fourth line more than they have in the past. Uh if you have a situation where you’ve got like um a one two two maybe three configuration with your time on ice deployments, I feel like that could work out reasonably favorably. And again, I say that 1 223 not being like really hard cut offs here, but just sort of in terms of priority and importance. You know, having that 2 A2B and then like a thirdish line that’s actually your fourth would be really nice to soften up some of those matchups and distribute the ice time relatively evenly. and Nomesticov as your 4C would really do that or you know maybe as a fourthline wing if you ask him to play above that role. I do feel like you’re setting yourself up for some disappointment. It’s not that he can’t but I just feel like you know for what the Jets want out of this group and what they have asked him to do it’s been too much responsibility. You know I think back to Perfetti really needing a skilled center uh to to make the most of his passes and his offensive creativity and like Vlad’s just not that guy. He’s a hardworking two-way forward and he does great work there. But if you’re asking him to be like this dynamo that just creates constant offense and really looks to be, you know, a lead attack player, I feel like you’re just not really getting what his game is at the stage. Uh, and you know, he he’s like what, 32, 33 now. So, as he slows down and his body starts to to show some of that wear and tear from the style of game he plays, you know, I just feel like the Jets need to be a little more cautious with what they ask of him. Again, I think as a tertiary supporting player, he is awesome and he’s been one of the better depth acquisitions the Jets have made over the past couple of years, which is why committing some term and money to him really wasn’t a big deal to me. Uh obviously you sort of have to pick and choose how many of these players you resign, but Nomestukov I think was a very sensible choice and somebody that you know has really proven to be a steadfast member of of this club. He has said repeatedly that he really likes playing in Winnipeg and that kind of stuff really goes a long way not only with the fan base but with the team. Hearing somebody actively advocate for sticking around with the Jets uh is really positive. It’s not something that you hear from a ton of free agents or or at least you didn’t until the past couple of seasons. And so him being one of these guys that sticks around, I think is a nice little ambassador thing, right? He has played for a ton of teams over the years, coming from super winning organizations like Tampa. He’s played with the Rangers for a bit, even had a spell with Colorado, Detroit, and Dallas. And so getting to to have Nomesticov in your bottom six really is a nice luxury. He’s got a huge winning pedigree. He’s been a great player throughout most of his career and if the Jets kind of give him that third or fourth line role that I think would really suit him. Uh I think it would really start to change some of the perception about what his ability is because in those roles that’s where I think he really shines. Let him feast on those softer minutes. Let him be your matchup god in your bottom six. And I think you’re going to see a very different version of Neomestikov. Yeah, you’ll see a points reduction, but I would much rather have him eating those matchups alive and beating up on like other third and fourth lines rather than forcing him into the 2C role and asking him to be something that’s just outside of his usual scope of work. It’s not that you can’t do it, but it’s really not an ideal fit. And I think this past season, we really saw the limitations of just how far you can push him as your 2C. But on that fourth line, man, he will absolutely wreck in whatever position he plays. So, uh, I I’m kind of optimistic about his season. I think he will see a big reduction in points if he’s played in that bottom six, but I don’t care about that. I’d rather have somebody who can keep up with the thought process of like a Cole Perfetti or or, you know, an IQist or something and let Nesnikov be who he is in your bottom six. Let him be a wrecking ball. The guy already took a ton of abuse this past season anyways and so kind of protecting his health might not be the worst thing. that dude like he threw himself in front of every single puck. He constantly got the crap beat out of him from like tons of of rough hits and flying pucks. I mean, that guy was just like a magnet for injuries and yet he really didn’t miss many games at all. Just four games missed in the past year and then the same for the previous season. So, uh I don’t know what this dude is made out of. I don’t know if he’s got adamantium in his bones or something, but this guy is extremely rugged and uh it’s it’s nice to see him kind of thrive with the Jets. You know, we don’t often get too many of these guys coming in and really hitting it off immediately, but Nestikov slid in immediately became something of a fan favorite and uh you know, for the past couple of seasons, he’s really been a fun player to watch. And I’m sure as his, you know, role changes and he starts to move further down the lineup, he’ll continue to be that ever reliable, ever steady metronomic sort of player. He doesn’t really have as much competition in my mind and I I don’t really think any of the new arrivals will threaten his position. Like Tanner Pearson, I know brings also Stanley Cup winning pedigree and is certainly a very solid player, but like between him and Vlad, I’d much rather take Vlad. Nesnikov is defensively still a good positive impact. He still does some really good two-way work. And uh Pearson, while he does finish opportunities very nicely, he’s kind of on on the washed side. And like Nomesticov, I think, is around the same age. And yet Vlad’s ability to impact the game is a lot more pronounced. And I just feel like he’s more likely to be a more successful two-way presence. So if I have a choice between him or Pearson or Kepka, 100% taking Vlad, zero question. And uh I would hope the Jets see it that way, too. Maybe there’s a surprise though and I can understand if the Jets have to make a guy like Shifley happy with a Pearson appearance, but Nestnikov for me should be a lock for your bottom six one way or another. Curious to know if you feel that way as well. Drop your thoughts and comments below or at my social medias at HL Living Loco and at Winnipeg Jets. Speaking of guys who are in my mind uh locks for the bottom six, there’s one other player that I think really shouldn’t be pulled out of this lineup and it is Alex Ayafalo. Yet another recent acquisition and a guy who has in my mind really grown to be a bit of a fan favorite in the Jets fandom. Hey friends and welcome back to these closing thoughts on tonight’s episode of Locked on Winnipeg Jets part of the Lockdown podcast network your team every day. every day. Thank you so much for rejoining us as we were just chatting about some season predictions for Jets forwards over uh the past couple of days. We are closing out this series with the fourth line and you know the fourth line has maybe some of the the most opportunity for for changes from the new arrivals, competition, injuries, you name it, the fourth line could be a real rotating cast. But just like Nomesticov, there’s one other guy that I think should really be a luck for this bottom six. It’s Alex Ayafalo. Now, Ayafalo is a really interesting player because when he first joined the Jets, I thought that he was going to be a lot like his prime kings days where he was very pesky. U you know, a very intriguing sort of faceoff slot menace. Uh Ayafalo has always been really creative around those circles. Has got a great shot. You know, I think his instincts tend to be very good when it comes to opportunistic moments. And uh he can kind of score some really greasy goals. He’s not afraid to get it up, you know, mix it up in that blue paint area. He’ll have really good hand eye coordination. And, you know, the the first season with the Jets was good. I don’t think it was nearly as good as I was expecting. You know, 27 points in 82 games. Decent, but not great for somebody playing like 15 to 16 minutes a night. Now, usually when you see a decline in ice time for a player, usually that means their uh goal scoring and production actually goes down. But with Neomestikov, he actually scored more points this season than he did in the previous one. Uh 31 points, 15 goals, 16 assists, playing 13 and a halfish minutes. Uh and that actually is is pretty cool. Um it actually earned him a nice little contract extension for a couple seasons. And Dafalo has really talked again about, you know, liking his time in Winnipeg, enjoying playing here. And to get that from a guy who’s been in LA for most of his career is really cool. You know, he’s a Cali guy. And so I thought I follow might want to go back towards the coast and and maybe hang out there a little bit. U obviously he has played in in Minnesota before with uh you know his college season so maybe the the Winnipeg jump really wasn’t as big of a deal as it would ordinarily be but I follow kind of coming in with the Valardi trade. A lot of people looked at him as as a guy who was sort of a cast a cast off a bit of a a toss in and I was excited about him and this past season I think really showed why. My favorite moment from this past year with him was when he he actually went up to the CSI line and just really changed it. You know, the top line without Valardi you thought might take a bit of a step back, but I follow stepped in and actually gave them a lot of defensive stability that the trio had been missing. Uh I follow doesn’t always have like the craziest offensive play driving ability, but in terms of that two-way uh two-way presence, the forchecking and the defensive attention to detail, it really helped balance out Shiffley and Connor. And I was upset in some ways that they broke it up in the playoffs. Again, if not necessarily your ideal topline player, but I think he does enough right with the right linemates to where he brings some really good middle six to top six value. Again, you’re not ne necessarily looking at it from the ideal arrangement, but when you have the Jets arranged that the way that they are, uh, needing to kind of spread out their talent a little more without sacrificing punch, I think if actually worked quite well with Shifley and Connor in his his more recent stints. Originally, it didn’t look that great. But this past season under Arnneal, very different story. Ayafala was a real force. I thought that he fit nicely in there. And even if they weren’t necessarily adding a lot of offensive production with that group, uh if nothing else, they were at least hemming opponents in and generally being a really big nuisance on the forche, which I follow does quite nicely. It’s one of his best attributes and uh I’m really glad that he’s decided to stick around. I at first was kind of hesitant about keeping him just because I felt like he brought a fair bit of defensive value, but I kind of thought that the Jets maybe overused him a little bit, over relied upon him, and instead that’s kind of come full circle to be a really positive thing. Uh, all with, you know, more alignments in how he’s deployed, where he gets deployed, and and what his role is. And he’s really taken off as a great middle six option and somebody with quite a bit of versatility. So glad he’s sticking around. He’s been a great addition. Um, you know, it’s interesting to see that the Kings didn’t really think that he was valuable enough to retain. They put all of this stuff in this package for Dubois and Dubois lasted one whole year with the Kings, man. Can you believe that? Uh, one season and already, you know, the Jets made out like bandits. So, what a a fun player he’s been. Uh, I don’t really feel like he should have competition from Pearson, but I’m sure he will. For me, Ayafal and Nestnikov are both better than Kepka and Pearson. like they just bring so much more. Their presence and veteran experience is great. Um, you know, Nomesticov has won titles. Uh, sure, Afalo hasn’t, but he’s just a really good two-way player and somebody whose versatility and skill allows him to fill in when somebody gets hurt up top. That I think is a really big deal and adds a lot of value to him as a player. And so, uh, I would really prefer him to stick around. Um, I think he really shouldn’t be coming out of the lineup for, you know, some of these these new additions. The only thing that I kind of worry about is because you have so many uh veterans signed and the Jets don’t really bury salary that rather than having competition for these spots, they just get all added into the lineup and take away any opportunities for the youth. I think that’s my bigger fear and it’s probably something that the Jets are are factoring into this upcoming season. I think they probably will go very veteranheavy and so I wonder if even Cherov will really have a spot. I think I’ve already mapped him out as being a starter for this team at least at the beginning beginning of the season. Um but it wouldn’t shock me if the Jets end up putting him more as like a 13th forward type and like I get it right like the Jets had a really big season. They won the president’s trophy. They did it going with all the veterans and maybe they think that they can do it again. But I think given the changes to this roster composition, the loss of Eers, the promotion of some guys who are going to be slower and older, and the need to find more offense basically across the board, um I would rather have the kids getting some real chances to make this team and to try and improve internally because we all kind of know what the veterans are likely to do again. Uh I doubt that they’re going to repeat the President’s Trophy, but this will still be a pretty competent regular season team. I just don’t think that they’re really built for the playoffs with what they have already. So, if they can, you know, make sure that they don’t bench the wrong guys and don’t put too too many veterans in while leaving some, you know, room for the youth to grow, I think that would be the most uh beneficial outcome hopefully for this season and really beyond. We got to start preparing for the next core to turn over. I think that group is going to be a lot of fun. I think that there’s going to be more skill across the board than we’ve ever seen and guys like Ayafalo and Nesnikov can kind of help bridge that gap and welcome in this new generation. But would be curious to know how you feel about it. Do you want Pearson to start over guys like Aafalo and Vlad? Do you think that the Jets are planning to have these guys uh for the full season, you know, or do you think maybe Winnipeg ends up shipping somebody out at some point? Drop your thoughts and comments below or at my social medias at HL Living Loco and at L_Winnipeg Jets for tonight’s episode. That’s all the time that we have though. Uh I thank you so much for listening to this series and really appreciate you sticking around. Next week if the Jets have any major moves, we will react to them earlier in the week. I’ll be back after the first day or so. So, uh we will be shifting to a three episode a week format. Just be prepared for that. Likely have an episode out on Tuesday or Wednesday. probably Tuesday, especially if Winnipeg announces some major contract extensions. But like I said, that’s all the time that we have for tonight. Thanks for listening. Have a great night. And as always, go Jets go.
The bottom-6 for the Winnipeg Jets holds many questions and competition for roster spots. Will the new arrivals in Koepke and Pearson unseat the current rotation? How will Namestnikov perform if he is moved back to the fourth line? Should Iafallo really be on the bottom line, or is he too good to keep playing for only 10 minutes? Will we see any rookies potentially filtering in to the fourth for sheltered minutes?
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1 comment
The 4th line is crowded the 10th forward is likely iafallo but last 2 4th line spots
Barron,Gus,Lambert,Koepke,Ford,JAD,Yager,Pearson,Duehr,Fagemo,Shaw will get looks preseason. When lowry Returns Namestnikov can be 4th line as well.
I think it ends up
Iafallo unless injuries he always moves up.
Iafallo Barron Pearson
When you do one on the defence it's pretty crowded
Morrissey Demelo
Samberg Pionk
Schenn Fluery
Stanley Miller
Clague Heinola
Salmonsson Phillips
Freijs