Whose play will ultimately determine the ceiling for the 2025 Green Bay Packers?

Whose play will ultimately determine the ceiling for the 2025 Green Bay Packers?

For the Green Bay Packers to get where they want to go in 2025, they need these players to hit their ceilings. The guys whose play will ultimately dictate how far Green Bay can go this season. You are Locked on Packers, your daily Green Bay Packers podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. You are locked on Packers, part of the Locked on Podcast Network. Your team every day. I’m Peter Bowski and I cover the Packers for the Leap, a newsletter I would love for you to subscribe to. Follow me on Twitter, peter_bukowski. Follow the podcast. On Twitter, Locked on Packers. Like us on Facebook, subscribe to the podcast, iTunes, Spotify, wherever you get podcast, you will get and find Locked on Packers, the number one Packers podcast on the internet. And this show for fans who know what happened. They want to know why and how. Thanks to everyone who makes Locked on Packers their first listen every day. We hope you like starting your day with us as much as we like starting our day with you. Today’s episode brought to you by our friends at Game Time. Download the Game Time app. Create an account. Use code locked on NFL for $20 off your first purchase. For the Packers to get to where they want to get to, to win a Super Bowl, and they’re close, it will rely on a handful of players either making a jump, making incremental progress, or ultimately reaching their potential this season for the Green Bay Packers. And the easiest, the most obvious answer is Jordan Love. I’ve talked enough about Jordan Love over the course of this offseason and I have said I believe he’s going to play like a top five, top six quarterback this season if he’s healthy and we’re going to talk about Jordan Love coming up. So, I I don’t want to spend too much time talking about him here. It is the case for nearly every team in the NFL that for you to win a Super Bowl, your quarterback needs to play well. Even though I think Jaylen Herz mostly got backpacked to a Super Bowl win this last year, he still had to make a handful of plays, still had to play well in big moments, and in the postseason, he he more or less did that. Beyond that, and I I want to pick players who I think can actually get there. Like I think it would be disingenuous for example to name Lucas Vaness in this case because I think if Lucas Vaness hits his ceiling this year. Yeah. His ceiling is like a really really freaking good football player. I don’t have any reason to believe that that would be the case. So we’re going to have to live in the realm of reality here. So for that reason I think this is going to surprise people. I am going to pick Eden Cooper because if Edin Cooper plays 17 games in the playoffs, the way that he played at the end of last season, he is the defensive difference maker this team needs. And one of the reasons why I wanted to go defense is I I I think the floor for the offense is so high. Even with some inconsistencies in the passing game, a quarterback that’s hurt, some some receiver nonsense catching the ball, especially on third down. This was a top five offense last year. I just expect the offense to be really good. I expect the passing game to be really good. I’m out on the floor as one of the best coaches in the league, one of the best play callers and play designers, game planners. I’m I’m really not that concerned about the offense. I think if they if they do what they did last year and the defense can get a half step better, they can be a Super Bowl team. Now, Adren Cooper played well in the playoffs and that defense played well against the Eagles until the end when it was just like the damn broke. But that was because the offense had been decimated by injuries. So, we’re just going to have to assume some health here. Xavier McKini, I’ve made the case, allp pro last year. I have no reason to believe he’s going to fall off. Rashawn Gary, who we’re going to talk about later in in the show, is a really solid football player. I don’t know why he would take a significant step forward. I think just finding some consistency in his role here with Jeff Hafley, getting more production because of more play from Brentton Cox and Lucas Vaness. little steps. I think that’s built into the assumptions here. But if you get Edan Cooper, I think Edan Cooper has the ability to be truly a game breaker. And I I’m not sure. I think Jordan Love his best is because of the position that he plays the most impact impactful player on this team. I am not sure anyone with a top percentile outcome that’s like greater than you know lower than 95th like not getting the absolute outlier outcomes like you get the best version of Christian Watson once upon a time I said the the 99th percentile outcome of Christian Watson is like AJ Green okay but we’re probably never going to get that even if that was true at some point I think the most likely super high-end outcome for him is like Fred Warner, someone like that. And if you like, you don’t have to get that version this year, but if you’re going to get something approximate to that, if he’s going to level up this year, you raise the ceiling of this team immensely. Now, I do want to take an offensive player here as well, and it is someone that we’ve talked about a number of times over the course of this season. I think the receivers are what the receivers are. I think Matthew Golden is going to give them some of what they got from Christian Watson. I think Savon Williams is going to give them some inconsistencies, but also some flash plays that maybe they didn’t have last year. I think Romeo Dobs is who he is. I think Jaden Reed is who he is. I think Dantavian Wix Wixs is who he is and I expect some regression to the mean with those drop numbers with those guys. I don’t know if there’s a significant step for any of those guys to make. I really don’t. I I think there’s an incremental step for Jaden Reed. I think there’s an incremental step for Dantavian Wixs, but I think the idea that any of those guys are going to suddenly be, you know, one of the two or three best players at their position or even one of the 10 best players in their position is probably pretty unlikely. But if Tucker Craft hits what I think is a reasonable outcome for him this year, he could be Trey McBride. I mean, maybe not in terms of pure volume. I mean, he had a 100 catches last year or whatever it was, but I mean, in terms of on third and six, third and eight, or in the red zone, or in a big spot, you can call a play for him and he’s going to he’s going to get open. He’s going to make the catch. You can funnel offense through him. He’s so reliable. He is so tough after the catch. He’s so big and physical. He’s a tone setter. Chris Long said on Mina and K’s podcast um this week that last year they did a training camp tour, the only team they saw big enough and physical as big as big and physical in the same ballpark as the Philadelphia Eagles, the Green Bay Packers. Tucker Craft is one of the reasons for that. And he is a tone setter. And it’s not a coincidence to me. You go back and you look all those Aaron Rodgers teams, there were two places they were consistently inconsistent, linebacker and tight end. Now they had that run with Jamaal Finley, but even that like 2009 that Jamaica Finley was freaking awesome and then he tears his ACL. Never quite the same. After that, you still get the versions of, you know, from 11 until the neck injury. that player was a very good a very good player. There were some inconsistencies there still and so that team lacked physicality and I think one of the reasons why is the inconsistencies at tight end. You know, you go back to the Andrew Corless days, the Richard Rogers days, like those guys that just they weren’t good enough. They weren’t physical enough. Like if you’re not going to be a great pass catcher, then you need to be an MFer in the run game. you need to have an elite skill. Their linebackers just were not that for too long. And it hurt them. You could see it in these big games when it’s when it’s punch you in the mouth time in the playoffs. They did not have enough physicality, they did not have enough capital D dudes on their team to compete in those moments. But if you get a linebacker who becomes a star and you have a tight end who can become, if not a star, one of the stalwarts at his position, I think it’s out there for him for sure. You have you have created a team and Dallas Goddard is no question one of those tone setters for Philadelphia. And Zack Baughn changed the Eagles defense last year. Now, they have not always prioritized linebacker, but finding that guy turned them into the number one defense in the league. Him finding the exact right group at the exact right time. They catch lightning in a bottle and they go win a Super Bowl in part because Zack Bond has an allp pro outlier season. And I hope for his case, for his sake that it continues. But you get that for the Packers with all the speed and explosiveness that they have at some of the other positions to get those guys in those spots. Now you have a chance to compete against the Eagles, the Lions, the Commanders in the postseason, and that’s what they need. Now they’re going to need Jordan Love to do it. One of the things that I hear from the Jordan Love detractors though is he yolo balls too too loose with the football. Why is Why is that a thing? It doesn’t make sense to me. I’ll tell you why next on Lockdown Packers. We’ve all been there. Logging on early and waiting forever for concert tickets to go on sale only to lose your spot for a show you’ve been dying to see. Live music should be about making memories, not dealing with the stress of ticket shopping. That’s where game time comes in. I just went through this, going to see Chris Stapleton perform and trying to find, okay, I got to find the right ticket. Oh, I got to am I is but is the view going to be okay? Am I getting good value? How do you how am I possibly going to know if I’m getting good value? Well, Game Time has zone deals that will pick the best seats in the section for you that’s going to give you the best deal. Plus, in the app, you get a panoramic seat view so you know what you’re getting before you buy. Take the guesswork out of buying tickets and go to Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use code locked on NFL for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, create an account and redeem code locked on NFL for $20 off. Download the Game Time app today. Last minute tickets, the lowest price guaranteed. It’s list time of year and we’re, you know, we’re doing it over here on the Lockdown Podcast Network. I don’t want to spoil too much. I will be giving you my top 10 quarterback list. Where did Jordan Love check in? Where did Jordan Love check in on the top 100? He is on our locked on top 100. I put him higher than he ended up being. We’ll see. But I went back and took a look because there is this perception of Jordan Love as a risktaker and as someone who’s going to put the ball in harm’s way. And I know he threw some interceptions this past season. But I think what people fixate on are the throws off his back foot that he gets away with, not the ones that he doesn’t. Now, there were two plays last year that I think are seared in a lot of people’s minds. The pick six against the Lions and the pick six against the Rams. The pick six against the Lions was an extremely unlucky play. Jordan Love trying to find a window to get the ball to Josh Jacobs. It is not a good throw. The guy can barely move. It’s pouring rain and he cannot see Kirby Joseph who’s being blocked out by Zack Tom. Okay, it’s a turnover, I guess. I mean, obviously it is. That is a pretty fluky play. And in general, pick sixes are pretty fluky. Like if Kirby Joseph just gets tackled right away, we don’t think of it the same way. It was a momentous play in that moment. They needed more from Jordan Love because the rest of the team was not doing anything in that football game. Could not catch a cold in that game, which is crazy ironic given how cold and wet it was. And then the Rams, the Rams pick six was a a Will Levis yolo play. He’s trying to avoid the safety, trying to throw it out of bounds and he gets the bad luck of a bad play. He’s trying to throw it out of bounds. There just happens to be a linebacker right there because Tucker Craft sort of chip released on that play. Also, part of the bad luck on that play is they had that play blocked up or they had enough guys to block up that play. They leave a free runner comes in and tries to flatten Jordan Love and Love has the wherewithal to stay on his feet and try and get the ball out of bounds knowing he’s gonna get avoid the safety. Those plays, let’s not fixate on two plays in a season when he was hurt last year. He had the same on the season the same turnover worthy play rate as Jared Goff and Jaylen Herz who are credited as being guys who take care of the ball. So on a per attempt basis, on a per snap basis, the same turnover worthy play rate as guys who are lauded for how they protect the ball. 2023 he had one of the best turnover worthy play rates in the league. In 2023, let me just give you a sampling of the quarterbacks that Jordan Love was better than at making throws that protected the ball. CJ Strad, Lamar Jackson, ever heard of him. Josh Allen, ever heard of him? Brock Perie, also supposed to be a guy who runs the system, takes care of the ball. Baker Mayfield, who by the way made it on one of the top 10 lists ahead of Jordan Love. Our pal Wendo Fetta points out career turnover worthy play rate Jaylen Herz 2.8% 8% Jordan Love 2.9% Jared Goff 3.3%. Jordan Love as a career player takes care of the ball better than Jared Goff. We fixate on these little plays and you can say okay versus pressure. Felipe Reyes Ceti pointed this out. Sorry if I butchered your name. Felipe Jordan Love’s 3.5% turnover worthy play rate while facing pressure last year is the second lowest rate for a Packers quarterback in the last 10 seasons. That means in 2020 when Aaron Rogers won the MVP, he had a higher turnover worthy play rate against pressure than Jordan Love did last year. That means in 2021, Aaron Rogers when he won the MVP had a higher turnover worthy play rate against pressure than Jordan Love did last year. In fact, the lowest turnover worthy play rate is actually 2018 Aaron Rogers probably because he was hurt. Now, this is part of the deal, but I went back and looked at all 11 interceptions. There’s one really, really bad one from the pocket. Clean pocket, wide open receiver. Tucker Craft last week of the season just airmails it. Just airmails it. Throws a pick right to right to the corner. And by the way, that’s also a little unlucky because I saw Caleb Williams in that same game make that same throw and there’s just not a corner. He sails it so bad it’s out of bounds. Like it’s so bad it’s good. It’s like when you hit a drive right going right and it ends up in the next fairway and you’re like, “Oh, okay. That’s nice.” rather than under a tree. The idea that Jordan Love is some like wild risktaker is just not borne out by the tape or the statistics. And I I do think part of it is that he does attempt throws in ways that most most players wouldn’t. And he does want to make every play. It’s why he doesn’t get sacked. He wants to make every play, but he doesn’t put the ball in harm’s way when he does that. He’s usually throwing it to a receiver. He wants to and can keep those plays alive. last year and I’ve made this case all off seasonason so this is not new territory here the turnovers and he did increase his turnover worthy play rate last year were a direct result of his inability to move and when you saw him last year at his best it was not all off play action big- time shot plays a ton of stuff from empty And most of it was I’m going to hit the back foot and get the ball out. But even that, like the first interception of the year, he did not plan and drive in part because that field in Brazil was a nightmare. And you could see he slips on one of the first dropbacks of the game trying to plant his back foot. And after that, he’s thrown a lot of fadeaway jumpers in part because I think he and I I’m still convinced and he we don’t know because he does end up getting hurt in that game. I still think he got hurt early in that game. Whether it was hurt, whether it was injured or hurt, I don’t know, but he throws a lot of fadeaway jumpers after that. And I think the footing had a lot to do with it. You look at the he throws three interceptions against the Vikings. One of them bounces off two Packers hands. There’s an interception against the Cardinals. Bo Mountain slips on an out perfectly thrown ball. Like these are those are not turnover worthy plays, but they end in interceptions. Imagine if those two interceptions come off the board. The difference between nine interceptions and 11 interceptions in in 15 and I guess it’s really like 14 games, right? Looks pretty different. looks pretty different, but that’s that’s not the way this works. So, everyone has to Monday morning quarterback the outcomes rather than the process. He is always going to be a little bit of a variance player because he is a big game hunter, but the big game is there. He creates those big plays. And I’m I’m not going to ask him to stop. It’s why the comparisons to a player like Josh Allen when I’ve talked about the the way the roster is built and the way the the Bills are set up to win and the Packers are set up to win. I I think Jordan Love is capable of playing in a given season. Not with the running to the same degree and I don’t think he has the arm talent quite of Josh Allen, but I think Jordan Love is capable of playing at a level that goes he had a season as good or better than Josh Allen in that particular season. I don’t know how many quarterbacks in the NFL can say that. production. Sure, like Brock Party had a season where, you know, you look at the EPA numbers and the advanced numbers and you go, “Okay, that was as good or better than the Josh Allen season.” But we all watch the games. I’m talking about you watch the games and the stats and everything says he was every bit as good as elite quarterback X. We can argue over who belongs in that conversation. Apparently the NFL argues about who belongs in that conversation, but Jordan Love is capable of doing that. He just needs to be healthy and he needs he does need to learn to play injured a little bit better. Aaron Rogers could do it. Joe Burrow struggled to play hurt. It is in some ways a skill to play hurt. Jordan Love has got to figure that out. This is the first time in his NFL career he had to deal with it. And so, you know, you hope he doesn’t have to deal with it again, but chances are good. At some point, he’s going to get banged up, dinged up, and be playing through something. He’s got to be able to manage it. That’s part of the deal, too. I’m I’m big on if you’re going to play, you need to be you need to be judge based on what you do on the field. Otherwise, don’t play. So, I can’t I can’t make too many excuses in that way. But I I’m not concerned about the the turnovers because they’re not a big deal. Our eyes can lie about this stuff sometimes because we we fixate on, oh, that was a terrible play. He’s he’s being described like he’s Jameus Winston and he’s he’s just not. He produces like Jared Goff or like Jaylen Herz who are caretakers to their offense and are lauded for being caretakers for their offense. Jordan Love can do more and it’s like he’s dinged because he can do more. He tries to do more and that puts him in a position occasionally, every once in a while to make a boneheaded play. Now, we we pivot from quarterbacks to someone who’s going to hunt them, Rashan Garry. Aside from being labeled as a defensive tackle on the uh NFL top 100 list, uh one stat that explains everything last year for Rashawn Gary, that’s next on Locked on Packers. The locked on NFL Top 100 will be released Wednesday, July 16th. That’s tomorrow at 10 a.m. Eastern on Locked On Sports Today. Hey, I host that one. The Locked On top 100 was voted on by the NFL hosts of Locked On. And there are some stunners. Don’t miss your favorite players where they were ranked. Subscribe to Locked On Sports Today on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. We are going to have plenty to say about that one. I can promise you. So, this was put out by NFL Plus NextG stats and it was a stat about Rashan Garry that I think tells you everything about the way the Packers wanted Rashawn Garry to play last year. Rashawn Garry generated pressures on 23.5% of his pass rushes on third down last season. That is the sixth highest among qualifying pass rushers on third down last year. So, he was extremely good at creating pressure on third down last year. Seems good, right? Well, Gary managed to generate pressure. This is again via NextGen stats on just 7.8% of his pass rushes on early downs. 7.8. He tripled his pressure output on third down. What’s the deal there? Well, Rashan Garry also happened to be the number one edge player in ESPN’s run stop win rate. And the Packers run defense went from one of the worst in the NFL to one of the best in the NFL. One of the things Rashan Garry could do off the rip in the NFL. His best trait as a collegiate player was he is an extremely stout run defender. He can take on two at his size with his strength and his length. He is a stout run defender. Now, there are some times when he’s not disciplined, but that’s when he’s chasing plays. It is clear they didn’t they did not do a bunch of wide nine last year and just say, “Hey, Rashan, go and and cause hell.” We thought that was going to be part of the Jeff Hafley plan was going to be, “Hey, just let him be Nick Bosa out there.” Joe Barry embraced that. Condense the split a little bit. A little bit of better gap integrity up front. and he held up in the run game as well as any edge player in the NFL. What the Packers plan was, and this is this is extremely Robert Solo coded, this is something that he has always preached, you have to stop the run on early downs and then you you basically you have to earn the right to rush the passer. That is not a new concept to be sure. But it is very Bob Salah in this case and that is Jeff Hafley cut his teeth with with Robert Salah in San Francisco. Um and so it makes sense to say look if you want to get to third and eight you got to win first and 10 and you got to win second and 10 and you have to be able to stop the run to do that. And there there’s a lot of made of like you’ve got to, you know, you you rush the passer, you stop the run on the way to rushing the passer, but the Packers clearly committed to stopping the run on early downs last year. And it didn’t make them, you know, particularly vulnerable to pass pressure either because their coverage, they were so sound on the back end. Now, there were times last year where I felt like they did not have some great plans early in the season against play action. That is true. And they were not able to generate pressure. Part of that is they were selling out to stop the run. But even against teams that are good play action teams by design, I understand the 49ers did not have all their guys. That’s a really good play action team. No one is better at scheming that stuff up than Cal Shanahan. Couldn’t get it off. Two in the Dolphins. couldn’t get it off. By the end of the year, they were excellent. The tradeoffs that they were making, that was working. Some teams, they did use run blitzes on early downs. So, that is like that is playing the run on the way to the quarterback. If if need be, you send that nickel, you send that extra linebacker. If it’s a run play, you’ve got an extra guy. And if it’s a pass play, now it’s a blitz. Jeff Hafley got much more creative with that stuff than Joe Barry ever was. Joe Barry was not like an early downr run blitz guy. Jeff Hafley mixed that stuff in and it does serve two masters because it allows you to create advantages in the box if it is a pass. Teams love to pass on early downs. Now this is like part of the NFL now. you you pass on first down and you can gum up run fits and blocking assignments by sending an extra guy. Shoot a gap and now you’ve got a negative play. Now you you can hurt yourself by getting out of gaps if you don’t play those things soundly. But the Packers were able to do that effectively last year. It did work. And I I know I I need to emphasize this. They were a top 10 rushing defense. they were top 10 passing defense. So for all of the kvetching about the secondary and the pass rush and all that stuff, the plan last year worked. So I know you look at the sack numbers and you go, Rhan Gary underperformed. Well, did he? On third down, he was as effective as any pass rusher in the NFL. In in those must-have pass rush situations, he was very effective. And on early downs, he was the best damn run defender in the league at the position. that’s a really good really useful football player. We just don’t have good tools and terminology um and and the nuance or the time often cases to talk about what makes those players so useful for your football team. It’s why guys for years someone like Kus Campbell can just go underappreciated. And I think Rashan Gary has a chance to set up like a very similar career that he’s not truly appreciated until later in his career maybe. I don’t know. He’s really good and he’s going to be important for the Packers to win this year. If he can recreate what he had last year and then you get a little more consistency out of the pass rush of Dvonte Wyatt and or Kenny Clark and or Lucas Vaness and or Bretton Cox, then this defense can really have something and or Edin Cooper as a blitzer if you want to do that. We’ll see. All right, top 100 time. It’s almost here. It’s coming. We’re going to have fun. Oh, baby. We’re going to have fun. I promise you, we’re going to have fun with this top 100. Follow me on the social media is Peter_bowski onx on Instagram. Um the the podcast, Lockdown Packers, wherever you get social media. We’re also wherever you get podcasts. Leave a rating, leave a review. Go subscribe over on our YouTube page. You can watch us so you can stay locked on Packers.

What players will the Green Bay Packers rely on most to reach their ceiling in 2025? Plus, why the narrative around Jordan Love’s “recklessness” is totally wrong. And the state that perfectly explains Rashan Gary’s 2024 season.

Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms…
🎧 https://link.chtbl.com/LOPackers?sid=YouTube

📢 Follow Locked On Packers on Social!
• Instagram: https://bit.ly/3VsdxCa
• Facebook: https://bit.ly/4c0DeAK
• Twitter / X: https://bit.ly/45rZjWo
• TikTok: https://bit.ly/3VjvEKy

Locked On NFL League-Wide: Every Team, Fantasy, Draft & More
🎧 https://linktr.ee/LockedOnNFL

Peter Bukowski, co-founder of The Leap, brings you a daily look at the Green Bay Packers year round with Locked On Packers! Go beyond the latest injury news into what you’re seeing on the field, how it works, and how it might change with new players or against a division rival. It’s the podcast for fans who know what happened, they want to know why and how!

And follow Peter Bukowski on Twitter, where he’ll be sharing the latest news about the Green Bay Packers and talking with fans.
On Twitter: @Peter_Bukowski & @LockedOnPackers

Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!
Gametime
Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNFL for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime.

FanDuel
Right now, new customers can get $150 in BONUS BETS when your first $5 BET WINS! Download the app or head to FANDUEL.COM to get started.

Monarch Money
Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code LOCKEDONNFL at monarchmoney.com/lockedonnfl for 50% off your first year.

FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)