Will the Orlando Magic FINALLY overcome their 3-point curse?

Will the Orlando Magic FINALLY overcome their 3-point curse?

Everybody has been rightly praising the Orlando Magic’s off season, but guess what? There’s still some doubt. It’s time to talk about the big swing stat that we all know it’s shooting today on Locked on Met. You are Locked on Magic, your daily Orlando Magic podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. And you are indeed locked on Magic. Today is July 16th, 2025. My name is Philip Rosnik. is a senior writer over at Orlando Magicaily.com, credentialed member of the Orlando Magic Media since the 2012 season. We’ll talk a lot about 2012 on today’s episode of Lockdown Magic. Uh on today’s episode then on Locked On Magic, actually uh we are going to chat about the big swing stat for the Orlando Magic. It’s the obvious one. It’s the one we all assume the Magic have corrected. It’s time to talk about shooting. We’ll talk about the additions the Magic made. where the Magic are coming from and then talk a little bit about Paulo’s mid-range game before we dive into uh Tuesday’s very unimportant summer league game. Sorry to all those who play. Uh we’ll get to all that coming up here in just a moment. First, we want to thank you again for making Lockdown Magic part of your day every day. No matter when you listen to us, whether it’s first thing in the morning, whether it’s right when we upload, we truly appreciate you making Lockdown Magic part of your day every day. We appreciate all of you. Make us your first listen of the day. We appreciate all of you who are part of our everyday crew. I want to find a name for you guys. If if you can come up with one, you can check us out wherever you download podcast. All part of Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. I’m a games person. Uh we will not get to Tuesday’s summerly game because Jay Richardson, Tristan Dilva, and Noah Penda all sat out. Does not mean they’re done. They could very easily play Wednesday, and we will have something to talk about. We’ll talk about them more on tomorrow’s episode. The Magic played a summer league game and it was a summer league game. So, we’ll get to that at the end of the show. But the big big thing that came out of this game was Jamal Mosley sitting in with the broadcast crew for pretty much the entire second half of the second quarter. And they got into a lot of topics, his coaching influences, pretty much everything to do with the Orlando Magic. But a consistent theme is has emerged in this conversation with Mosley as well as conversations with Magic decision makers, Magic executives, Magic coaches over the last month, month and a half. The Orlando Magic understood the task they had this off season. I’m not going to pretend that they didn’t understand that task. They were the worst shooting team in the league last year, 31.2% from three. It was actually the second worst three-point shooting in team history. In team history. Only the expansion 1990 Magic shot worst from three. And teams did not really start shooting threes at the volume. We’re talking about 30 threes per game until after the 2009 Orlando Magic. the kind of one of the teams that really revolutionized the use of the three-point shot and will not get the due credit that they that they should for that revolution and and the proof of of concept of what they were doing. Quite simply, we know the Magic’s big problem. We know the big issue that they faced. The highest the team has finished in three-point field goal percentage. Again, they were 27th in offensive rating last year. Last in three-point field goal percentage, last in three-point field goal makes. The highest the Magic have finished in three-point field goal percentage since Dwight Howard’s departure in 2012 is 12th. They were 12th in three-point shooting back in 2019, 35.6%. Do you know how much this Magic team would kill to shoot like that? They’ve been outside the bottom 10 in three-point field goal percentage just four times in the last 13 years. It is no wonder the Magic have not had an offense outside the bottom 10 in that time period either. If the Orlando Magic, who have made it very, very clear, Jeff Welman was on SiriusXM radio on Tuesday saying very, very clearly, our goal is not just to win the East, we want to win the NBA. The Magic are saying that quiet part so loudly. They are putting the expectations and the pressure on themselves. If the Magic are going to get there, they’re going to need to be able to make three-pointers. Now, Orlando thought they addressed this last year. They signed Contavius Caldwell Pope, one of the best spot up three-point shooters, one of the best floor spacers in the league, someone who fit their defensive identity and did indeed add to their defense. and it didn’t work. For whatever reason, it it didn’t work. Shot 34% from three, certainly boosted by a late season push from three and then struggled a ton in the playoffs. He just did not mesh with what the Magic were doing. And sure, some of it might have had to do with injuries, but he did not mesh with what the Magic were doing. So, the M So, the Magic, sorry, my mic just fell. Uh, so the Magic went about changing their three-point shooting. The Magic The Magic went about changing their three-point shot, their three-point shooters. Every addition they made had this shooting thing in mind. That is the truth. Desmond Bane, 39.2% 2% shooter last year. Just the second season industry he shot worse than 40%. He was a 42.3% catch 42.3% on catch and shoot three-pointers according to second spectrum. They added Taius Jones 41.4% from three last year. Career 37.8% three-point shooter. He made 43% of his catch and shoot three-pointers last year. Even if they don’t, as long as they come in near those averages, the Magic shooting just got a lot better. And that doesn’t get into Jace Richardson who has delivered so far with the shooting. He’s been three of six in two games from three. You maybe not the volume the Magic are hoping for with the amount he’s on the ball, but a 41.2% three-point shooter at Michigan State last year. The Magic did indeed add the shooting that they were hoping for. All of these numbers would suggest the Magic are going to be a different kind of shooting team. that the Magic are going to take a big leap offensively, but I’m sure I said those things last year. Like, look, France should get better from three. Technically, he did improve from three last year as bad as he shot. Um, Paulo should get better from three, especially with more space with another attacker to maybe set him up with some easier shots. Jaylen Suggs should get better from three as well. There is no reason to think the Magic won’t be a better three-point shooting team. There is zero reason to believe the Magic aren’t about to take a big step. But we don’t know. And that’s been the going phrase and the going comment is on paper everything looks really good or it looks better. I want to say really good. I don’t know how good this Magic team is going to be offensively. I think there are still major flaws. addressed those flaws over the last two days and we’re kind of talking about it again this today. The key for the magic is still shooting and again we’ve all said this Orlando could just be an average three-point shooting team. It changes everything. We’ll talk about one way it could change things here in a minute but it changes everything. The thing is, while on paper it all looks good, we don’t know the answer to that question. We don’t know if the Magic are about to take this huge leap, this big step from three. It could end up being that now this team’s cursed or that the way Joel Mosley runs his offense doesn’t quite work. And obviously Magic have added Joe Prunty to help with the offense. We don’t know. So shooting remains a big swing stat because we don’t know what this team looks like, how this team’s going to come together. On paper, it looks good, but we don’t know. We’re pretty sure, we’re hopeful, we’re confident, and we should be. There is no reason to think the Magic won’t be a better shooting team. And we saw this so many times last year. We saw this. We saw this in Tuesday’s summer league game. The Magic played a pretty energetic and decent defensive summer league game, but they couldn’t make a shot. Nine for 36 from three. And that changed everything with the normal summer league turnovers and all that stuff. And it’s just summer league. I’m not going to freak out. I’m not like there’s a reason I’m not leading with summer league stuff, but shooting matters. There’s no getting around it. It matters. And while the Magic have done their work to address those shooting wos and to become a better shooting team, we’ve got to see it on the court before we truly believe it. And that’s going to open up another world, another Pandora’s box of shooting because a big area where the magic could improve is with Paulo Beno and his mid-range game. We’re going to talk about that coming up here in just a moment. But first, today’s episode of Lockdown Magic is brought to our friends over at Monarch Money. Ever wish manager your money felt easier? With Monarch Money, it can. Whether you’re growing your savings or planning a big purchase, Monarch puts you in the driver’s seat. It’s like having your own personal CFO giving you full visibility and control over your finances. Monarch Money is more than a budgeting app. It’s a complete financial command center. You can track all your accounts, investments, and spending in one place. So, in addition to managing your money, you’re also building wealth. When you have the ability to track your finances and see what you’re spending, you find out how much you’re actually spending. Are you spending too much on going out to eat? Are you spending too much on those subscription services? Where is your money actually going? The money you bring in, the money you work hard for, where is it actually going? Is it going to the places you wanted to? That’s what Monarch Money helps you find out. That’s what Monarch Money helps you track. That’s what Monarch Money helps you manage. So take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code lockna at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. That’s monarchmoney.com. Code lockdown for half off your first year. Palo Mano is a Max player. We talked about that last week. We talked about that and why he is a Max player worth every single penny the Magic are spending on him. I don’t you’re not going to find an argument for Magic Vans. I’m preaching to the choir. Honestly, even his detractors would agree he is a max player. They might disagree on whether he should have gotten the the player option that he got, but he is a max player and and and I don’t think that’s up for debate. What continues to be debated among some people is just where he places and whether he can be the kind of star that leads you to a championship. Again, the Magic are talking a big game. I’m not the one sitting here saying, “Oh, this is a championship level team.” I I think they’re still another year, maybe another move away from being very serious about that. The Magic are the ones telling us, “We think we can win a championship. Maybe not this year, but very, very soon. And so, how do the magic get there? I think a lot of the criticisms people have of Paulo Beno are they’re they’re fair but unfair in their conclusions. People who are obsessed with his advanced analytics and and I’ve heard people I I think it was the game theory podcast when they discussed Powell Ben Carro’s um Palo Ben Carro’s extension. They said a lot of these advanced stats don’t know how to track superstars, especially superstars on flawed rosters like the Orlando Magics, like a team that doesn’t have quality shooting to create space and make his job easier. It can’t tell you, oh, the quality of Paulo’s shots are tough because no one is leaving their shooters or they’re doubling they’re leaving their shooters and doubling and triple teaming him. The numbers can’t tell you that. And so I think you get a lot of people who don’t understand the context of numbers. Um I’m a big numbers purpose person. I do believe in analytics but I think analytics without watching games without proper context that’s the problem. You have to ask yourself why do the numbers reflect this? Sometimes I think people are just looking at numbers straight up and making conclusions. And so there are still a lot of areas where Paulo can get better. I don’t think his critics his critics pick on things that are there. They’re not wrong. They’re just wrong in the conclusions they draw from them or or or just making grand sweeping conclusions about a 22-year-old who’s already done so much. It’s at this point then that I think it is really really important to understand a big area where Paulo Beno is going to have to get better and hopefully having more space having more shooting around him having another playmaker hopefully the magic improving the personnel around him will get him to this level and that is his mid-range game. Look, Palivan Carro is a scoring machine, 25.9 points per game, even in an injury-filled season. If you take out the games where if you take out the games where he was still clearly working his way back from injury, and again, I think we talked about at the time probably like how much grace can we give him for coming back from that injury. After the All-Star break, he was phenomenal. His efficiency was incredible. after the All-Star break, he shot he played very very well um coming off of that injury. And so it comes down to Paulo has to be more efficient in the shots that he takes. Last year was third in the league with 4.7 mid-range field goal attempts per game according to NBA.com, but he made only 41.7% of those shots. That was the second lowest percentage among players who took at least four mid-range attempts per game. And again, the only players who take a lot of mid-range jumpers are stars. The mid-range game is the providence of the stars because the other efficient shots are taken away. The star takes the mid-range shots. So only Joel Embiid of the nine players who took four attempts per game from the mid-range shot worse than Paulo. He was eighth worst among players who attempted three mid-range jumpers per game. There are some bigname players. Luca was only 38.9% on 3.1 mid-range jumpers. Everyone compares Paulo to Jaylen Williams. They play different different roles. I I don’t think the comparison is necessarily fair, but Jaylen Williams is an elite mid-range shooter. 45.9% on three mid-range attempts per game. Beyond that, those comparisons, beyond those numbers, 23.9% of Ber’s field goal attempts came in the range. mid-range. Nearly a quarter of his total shots are mid-range jumpers. He has to be better. In the playoffs, he shot 37.7% on 8.6 mid-range field goal attempts per game. Again, Celtics forced a lot of difficult shots. Paulo took a lot of difficult shots. Among players who took four mid-range field goal attempts per game in the playoffs, only Giannis shot worse. So again, there is an area for improvement. Paulo has to be a more efficient shot maker and shot taker. If he’s going to take a lot of mid-range shots, percent is kind of the elite level. Certainly needs to be above where he was at last year in the low 40s. This is the bigger point though. Paulo may have already taken that leap. All those full season numbers include the stretch in January where he was very, very clearly working his way back into health. After the All-Star break, Paulo shot 39.2% on 5.7 mid-range attempts per game. Or that was uh from the time he returned from surgery until the All-Star break, he was at 39.2% on 5.7 mid-range attempts per game. After the All-Star break, he averaged 29 points per game. shot 47.3% from field, 33.3% from three, a 58.3% true shooting percentage. It’s a small sample of 24 games, but after the all-star break, Paulo Ben Carro looked more like an elite star in the making than a player who has rough statistics. He shot 42 and a half% on 4.4 mid-range field goal attempts per game after the All-Star break. So again, still a decent volume, a slightly better percentage. He made more of these shots. And if this is a place where he’s going to make shots, he’s going to have to be a lot better. And again, when he was healthy last year, he was very, very clearly maybe not all the way there, but an improving player from the mid-range. The question remains, will Paulo keep getting better at this? Will Paulo continue to take that step up and be a better and more effective mid-range jump shooter? If he can, it changes everything about the Magic because as much as we want to talk about the shooting and the shooting is going to give him the space to get these these these points, you go as far as your stars take you. France Vagner adding a mid-range jumper was huge. Changed his game completely. If he is even halfway decent from three, France Vagner becomes unguardable. If Paulo Ben Carol becomes a more effective and efficient mid-range shooter, let alone a three-point shooter, which he’s already made progress on, he becomes unstoppable. All of a sudden, the Magic have two of the best attacking forwards in the league, which they already do have, but they get that at an elite championship level. We talk about the things that are going to swing the magic from nice, competitive, good team to elite championship level team. These are the things. Improve three-point shooting from the rest of the roster. Improve mid-range shooting from Paulo Beno. If the Magic get that, these are not merely championship dreams. These are championship realities. And that’s why shooting is still at the center of everything. And frankly, while yeah, Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones and Jace Richardson should help with the magic shooting. Jaylen Suggs in a more complimentary role should help with the magic shooting. We have to see how this all comes together. And at the end of the day, the Magic are going to go where Paulo and Fron’s development takes them. So, we’ll see what that looks like in about two and a half, three months. Let’s talk a little bit about Tuesday’s summer league game. There isn’t much to say, but we’ll get to it coming up here in just a moment. The Orlando Magic remain winless in summer league falling to the Oklahoma City Thunder 92 to75. A I would call this a frustrating game to watch if you were emotionally invested in it and cared. Um which again I the players are, the coaches are. Um the Magic did a lot of good things. I I will say this. Um, I think I think I’ve gotten to the point with these summer league games where the first thing I look at is is the effort there and and I I think the Magic have played with incredible effort. I think this group has really done a good job, playing with energy. They’re not giving up on these games. Um, you know, coach coach Amir Bahur has said he wants this team to be resilient. He wants this team to keep fighting. The score does not matter. again. Do I want the Magic to win? Absolutely. Winning is better than losing. Always will be. Always has to be. Um but it’s summer league. Random things happen. You’re dealing with lineups and rosters that haven’t played together and sometimes the other team gets hot or just has better players. The Magic played with one hand behind their back sitting Tristan Dilva, Jace Richardson, and Noah Penda. It certainly felt like going to Magic’s history at summer league, they tend to play those guys two potentially three games. I wouldn’t have been surprised and I still won’t be surprised if Jace or Noah play on Wednesday. I did not think they would play both games of this back-to-back at minimum. Um I was not surprised that Tristan sat. I think we’ve seen enough from Tristan. I think it’s we’re good. We’re good with what we’ve seen from him. Um this is just how the magic deal with summer league. You can agree with it, you can disagree with it. I probably disagree with it more than I agree with their approach to summer league, but this is how it goes. And you got to have a game where you give the young guys uh give the non-roster guys a chance to play, a chance to show off themselves, chance to like play in front of the scouts for the other teams and teams overseas and everywhere else. Um, unfortunately for the Magic, like nothing really grabbed me um about any individual player on this team. Uh again, like Oklahoma City had AJ Mitchell. He is a roster player, contributed to the team last year. He scored 27 points, nine for 13 shooting. Just Magic did not have a way to stop him. Um Brandon Carlson, sevenfooter, uh was a two-way guy for them last year. He came off he he started played 23 points. It was first game of the summer league, 23 points, seven rebounds, four for six from three. Just bugged the magic with his size. Um they were really the only two guys that scored. They combined for 50 of the 92 points. Um, Orlando fought, I want to give them all the credit in the world for the way that they fought in this game. They fell down pretty quickly, I would say. Um, it was close in the first quarter. They gave up a run toward the end of the second quarter, got down by like 1213. The lead stayed there for the most part. Orlando tied the game toward the end of the third quarter, I want to say. Um, and then Oklahoma City burned off some burned off like a 10-2 run to end the quarter to go back up by like eight, nine, 10 points and then the Magic got down to six at one point and then they and then they just kind of let go of the rope and they kind of lost it there. Um, after the game, uh, coach coach Bahur said that um, he was really proud of the way that they played. They missed some shots. They missed some shots on the rim. We had our kind of normal turnover issues, 25 turnovers in this game for 22 points. Again, just like the game against Toronto, while the Magic were were kind of throwing the ball around and turning it over a lot, they got back and and got it back. Oklahoma City had 19 turnovers as well. Orlando scored 23 points off those turnovers. Orlando scored more points off of Oklahoma City turnovers than Oklahoma City scored off of Orlando turnovers, which you know, again, turnovers were the issue because the Magic just couldn’t shoot. Nine for 36 from three, 32.3% from the floor overall. They were 24 for 26 from the foul line, which helps. Um, a lot of guys scored a lot of their points at the foul line. Uh, Wendell Moore had six of his 14. He shot three for 11. Um, two for seven from three. I think Wendell Moore has a really good shot at getting a two-way contract of any of the Magic’s non-roster players on this team. Wendell Moore has stood out the most. Uh, I think that he is very much in line for a two-way contract if that’s again the direction the Magic want to go. We don’t know what the Magic do with their two-way contracts really. I I I don’t have, frankly, I don’t have uh any rhyme or reason to their their decisions on those two-way contracts. Um he played well. Ethan Thompson bounced back really nicely at 16 points. He made four of the Magic’s nine three-pointers. He was four for eight from three, but five for 12 overall, so one for four inside the paint. Um a decent showing for him. Scallabier, like again, he’s a veteran. We know what we’re getting. 10 points, one rebound, five fouls, three blocks. It’s again a very summer league stat line. But again, other than that, like Janelle Divas got his first extended run, had 10 points, but four turnovers. Nate Santos I thought actually did play pretty well, but 11 points, two for seven shooting, six for six from the foul line. Again, very summer league stat lines. Nobody stood out in in in a particularly meaningful way. And again, these guys, they need to stand out and stand out in positive ways. Again, I want to repeat this. I think the ma the one thing the Magic have done very very well in summer leagues over the last under Jamal Mosley but really the last three years is the guys that they bring in as non-roster players really do embrace the energy and effort uh culture and mentality that this Magic team has. I I did not have a problem with the effort that they played with. I think they fought. I think they played hard and and that speaks a lot to the character of this team. It speaks a lot to the character of the coaching. It speaks a lot to the character of the culture, but execution wasn’t there. And some of that is roster construction. Some of that are the players that are playing. There is no like true attacking point guard outside of Jace Richardson on this roster. And we talked about this after the Toronto game. that is a deficiency on this roster that that echoes and mirrors a little bit of the deficiency in the Magic’s roster and that’s a small cause for concern in my book. Um but but you know but the Thunder played well. Um you know the Thunder did enough to win. They had they had the better players take over and even though the Magic I thought did some good things and played with heart and energy just they didn’t have the horses to compete. Um again it’s summer league I’m not going to lose sleep over summer league loss. Um again the fight was there. I think that’s what matters. I think that’s ultimately what they want to see. It’s just this roster frame and I think uh you know to a little part of me wants to say they’re doing a disservice to these guys because they’re not necessarily in positions to succeed and that’s not air’s fault. That is you know whoever’s putting the roster together and and we’ve talked about this over several summer leagues. Um but it’s summer league the guys we cared about played really well. We’re gonna we’ll re I’ll recap what we saw from Jayce Richardson, Noah Penda and Tristan Dilva on tomorrow’s show. Um, even if they play, we’ll we’ll we’ll talk specifically about them. Um, yeah, that’s that’s that’s where we’re at. That’s what this is. Um, we’re at that part of Summer League where it’s it’s there’s just not a lot left to see. So, we’ll talk again about Summer League tomorrow. We’ll talk about more specifically about the guys we care about, but that’s that’s where we will leave it at that. I want to thank you for listening to today’s episode of Locked on Magic and sticking through a whole eight minute segment on a summer league game that felt completely meaningless. But I appreciate you all for listening to today’s episode of Locked on Magic. Of course, find us on Twitter. You can find me on Twitter, phipr_omd, and on blue sky, phipr. You can subscribe to the podcast on Apple podcast, chunboy, Google play, Spotify, Odyssey, and all all the fun places you don’t download the podcast to your podcast enabled listening device. You can check us out on YouTube as well. Just search for locked on magic. For the latest on the Orlando Magic, be sure to check out Orlando Magicaily.com. You can find us on Twitter, omagic Daily. And for even more Orlando Magic content, be sure to check out our Patreon, my Patreon page, the Orlando Magic Hub, at patreon.com/orlandomagichub. As always, thank you for your support. Now that you’re done making Lockdown Magic your first listen today, go make your second listen. The Lockdown NBA podcast where there is no offseason. Doug, Matt, and Hayes keep you up to date on contract negotiations, rumors, and everything you need to be the most informed NBA fan. Find Lockdown NBA on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast, part of Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. My apologies for earlier in the show when my mic fell. As you can see on YouTube, my little mic flag off it weighs the thing down like crazy. I am in the process of buying a new mic for the start of next season. Uh, so that we’re our championship run sounds crystal clear and all that, but I apologize for the technical snaf you earlier and and if this sounds a little weird because I don’t have my my wind guard in place, but that’s going to do it for me today. I want to thank you all again for listening to today’s episode of Locked On Magic. We’ll be back tomorrow for another episode talking about summer league. Until then, for Orlando Magic, daily locked on Magic. This has been Phil Prosman Mike. We’ll see you all again next time for another episode of Locked On Magic.

The Orlando Magic had one goal for this offseason: Improve their offense and 3-point shooting. To compete for a title, the Magic needed to find a solution to their long-standing shooting issues.

They seem to have done so with the acquisition of Desmond Bane and Tyus Jones along with Jase Richardson. It could truly transform and boost the team to get consistent shooting. But nobody really knows if this will work until the team gets on the floor.

Better shooting should also unlock a new level to Paolo Banchero’s game, putting him on the path to meeting his vast potential.

0:00 Intro: Orlando Magic’s offseason and shooting
5:09 Magic’s historical struggles with three-point shooting
11:53 Paolo Banchero’s max contract and potential
16:58 Banchero’s mid-range shooting improvement needed
23:38 Recap of Magic’s summer league game vs Thunder

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