Mina Kimes: Praise For Sean McDermott, The Bills Offense, And The State Of The AFC East
We welcome in ESPN NFL analyst Mina Kimmes. And Mina, we know your downtime is about ready to end because training camps are going to be starting. So, thanks for giving us some of what is left uh of your free time uh to join us here on the show. And as I was just saying before you hopped on, um we know that you are uh you know, a proponent of Shawn McDermott’s head coaching exploits. Uh what is it about, you know, his coaching style that most appeals to you? Oh, that’s an interesting question. Um, well, I think he just deserves a lot of credit for the play of the defense. I’ll start there. Over the last few years, um, I think the Bills defense, you know, they don’t have a stud pass rusher the way, you know, like a Cleveland or um, a Pittsburgh does. And they have really good players, but I think across the roster or across the depth chart, you don’t really see that many superstars. Matt Milano at times perhaps, but when you watch them, they’re extremely disciplined. The fundamentals are there and they always, I think, play almost, I wouldn’t say above their talent level, but he gets the most out of the players he has on his roster. You see also the development of players who are drafted outside of the first round. You have some real um really talented guys uh that Brandon Bean has managed to find later. But I do think Sean McDermott, given that that’s his side of the ball, deserves a lot of credit for that. They’ve had turnover too on the coaching staff as well. So, you start there. I would also say he gets credit in my mind for making difficult decisions. Um, moving on from Ken Dorsey was a decision that I was dubious of because the Bills offense was statistically extremely good under Dorsy, but it proved to be the correct one. And then finally, I think as a game manager, he’s improved a lot over the years. um sometimes it’s hard for defensive coaches to become more aggressive, modernized in terms of approach and game management and you’ve really seen that with him. So those are three things that come to mind for me. Well, one of the things that uh is evident with this defense is you’re right, the talent level has they’ve overcome it with their ability to get turnovers and and it’s one of the things that we talk about on the show is being it’s so unpredictable. One game you go and you don’t get any turnovers and then you know you struggle defensively. However, for some reason, this team over the last four years has always been a top three, top five team in getting turnovers. I don’t know how much credit you can give the coaching staff, but when you ask, they say you get what you emphasize. Um, if but it it sounds a little more simple than it is. And basically the thing that did bail this defense out last year was their ability to consistently get turnovers even if even with a long track record four or five years. Do you expect it to continue? It’s a great question. It’s a really important thing to isolate when you talk about this defense. Um so nerds like me believe that turnovers regress and when we look for um defensive performance regressing next year that’s something that we that is kind of like a red flag right um I think I I was looking at the FTM fantasy does this great it’s called the almanac and the Bills chapter had numbers if you took out the Bills turnovers they were basically an average defense to your point um but this is a defense that’s also as you said has gotten turnovers year after year and I think some of that is stylistic this is a very zoneheavy defense. It lives a nickel. I think they’ve got um DBs who play the ball really well and while the pass rush isn’t amongst the NFL’s best, it’s pretty consistent. So, the elements are there for them to get turnovers. I think um will it likely, you know, regress a little bit? Probably. I think you’re counting on some of the investments that they made in the draft, particularly on the defensive line to mitigate that, as well as of course improved play at the second quarterback position. Um, so even if those turnovers come down a little bit, and I do think, you know, typically statistically that does happen, hopefully the talent influ, uh, the talent that you’ve added to the roster addresses that to some degree. Yeah. Talking with ESPN NFL analyst Mina Kims, who’s joining us here, and, you know, you mentioned on defense how there wasn’t a lot of elite player talent, and I think they’ve taken a sim similar philosophical approach to their wide receiving core. After they traded Stfan Diggs last year, it was clear they made this philosophical shift that they were going to move away from a true alpha number one receiver and just have a collection of very good receivers who from receiver one to receiver five, there isn’t a tremendous amount of talent difference. And all they did was go out and become the first team to score 30 rushing and 30 passing touchdowns in a single season. and when we got past the Super Bowl, they had scored more points than any team in the league if you count the postseason in there. Um, what do you make of that philosophical shift number one? Does it have staying power? And should we take anything from the fact that there are a couple of other teams in the league that have taken that approach as well, the Packers for example? So, maybe just roll all that together in a ball for me with that philosophical shift. Yeah, it’s really interesting. Um, I I we all laughed at the uh Billy or Billy Brand Bean uh kind of getting a little bit riled up about the not adding the number one wide receiver, but I fundamentally I agree with him. It was in my mind important to focus on the defense. You know, when you think about this team and why didn’t they get over the hump? I I think about second quarterback being mercilessly targeted in the postseason. I think about the lack of a pass rush. I think about the need to add interior defensive line depth. So his approach to me makes sense. That said, you know, when you run an NFL team in a hard salary cap sport, you have to make difficult decisions. And that is where they have chosen to, you know, you might say underinvest um betting on not only the importance of investing the defense, but also if you have a dominant run game, a dominant offensive line and an MVP quarterback, you can skimp there a bit because of that dominant run game, because of the quarterback defenses play them in a way where you create opportunities for the receivers you do have. So maybe you don’t need a guy like a Justin Jefferson Jamar Chase who the, you know, uh, defense that you’re playing has to completely key in on. I think there is something to that. I still wish they had one. I’m not going to lie. I wish that they had a little bit more speed. I I mentioned this on NFL Live. You know, Josh Allen’s uh splits were worse versus man coverage than zone. The Bills face a lot of man coverage. I wish they had a man beater. That’s not a Josh Allen stat, right? That’s about the pass catchers. But ultimately given the decisions that they had to make, I think they’re understandable. Um especially given again the need to prioritize the defense and they do they have said in the past it’s complimentary football. It was a catchphrase for a minute for Shawn Mcder and certainly they play to that. This is an offense that while he scored all those points we talked about they were 50/50 almost run pass which I mean that’s you talk this pendulum swang swung back drastically from throwing it twothirds of the time. Um, is that a deliberate? Do you think that’s deliberate because of the defense or do you think it’s just part of an overall philosophy? I think it’s trying to shorten the game, you know. Yeah. The state of the NFL. Um, I just did a podcast with Dan Oraski, my uh co-host on NFL Live where we talked about offensive trends and basically how much offenses over the last two or three years in particular have leaned into running the football in response to defenses going lighter, right? over the last prior five years or so. Um, as defenses have gone lighter, as with Buffalo being a prime example, Nickel being the new base, um, there is an advantage to having a team that could just pound the rock, that can get into heavy personnel, that can force run past conflict. And I think Buffalo is wise to lean into that because stylistically it is the best offenses in the league right now can run the football. The top four offenses, I mentioned this on the pod, in DVOA, Buffalo, of course, being one of them, were also the top four rushing offenses in football. That’s just state of the league. It doesn’t mean it’s going to be that way for all of Josh Allen’s career because he’s so good. You could go into different directions philosophically. Maybe you find a receiver that, you know, a gem uh who and you end up pivoting away and being a little bit more passive. But I think in terms of like where football is right now, the quarterback you have, the strength of your team, it makes perfect sense. dovetailing off of that. Um, you know, we know the Bills were one of the teams that played that jumbo package with Alec Anderson as a sixth offensive lineman almost more than anybody. I think it was around 15% by the time the season was over in terms of percentage of snaps. And now, even though it’s kind of under the radar, they have a fifth round pick in Jackson Haw who’s more of a traditional Y tight end. And it’s got everybody wondering, hey, this is your new third tight end. Are we going to see more 13 personnel knowing the success the Chiefs have had with that personnel grouping in recent years? So, I’m wondering if it if it even goes another step further. Uh granted, that’s maybe a lot to put on the plate of a rookie fifth round pick, but you know, Jackson Haw is a former Yaley, so you know, um smart kid, quick on the uptake, and finished up at Georgia Tech, which is no slouch of a school either. So, um I I think he can handle it. But what do you think about maybe more teams copycatting the Chiefs to some extent with some more 13 personnel in light of where you think the run game’s headed? Yeah, multiple tight ends uh is another trend that we’re seeing statistically. I mean 12 personnel hit a all-time high last year uh since we started tracking it at Tree Media 20 years or so. Uh, you know, I I have been kind of wanting the Bills to lean into more multiple tight end sets and when they drafted Concaid, I think that was the hope, but then, you know, there was health issues. Um, was him with him and Knox being on the field at the same time, right? And and I I always think about there was a playoff game, maybe it was two years ago, where they used a ton of Reggie Gilliam, and I thought, “This is it. It’s happening. The Bills are I don’t you guys would probably know better than I, but but they keep going back to the 11.” Um, and I I think it would be immensely valuable for them to be able to put three tight ends on the field. Again, when you have a run game as dominant as Buffalo, when you have a quarterback who’s as much of a dual threat as him, and then you have, you know, multiple tight ends who can you can hunt mismatches with, it’s just going to make the pass game that much more dynamic. So, I would love to see that from from the Bills. How many how many more question marks are there on this roster than there were just 12 months ago? It seems like particularly offensively he had a ton of question marks at the wide receiver spot. James Cook was finally going to be the lead dog. Um you know Concaid entering his second season. Um and now this year after having this guy M. Holland we do nothing about. Um now this year the guys that they brought in have pedigrees are actually better than M. Holland was when he came here last year with Moore and uh the rest. What do you think? Are there Yeah. Are there more question marks or fewer headed into this season for the Bills? Uh, it’s a good question. I think offensively it’s less I would say question marks because you got a lot of solid players. Josh Palmer’s super solid solid. Um, the question for me is not like oh are there gaping there aren’t gaping holes on this offense. is more just like can any of these pass catchers pass catchers I think Coleman and Cater the two guys we keep looking at really take a leap forward and be that man coverage beater that we talked about be a guy Josh Allen can lean on to get you a bucket on third down in a high leverage situation in the postseason defensively I think there actually are some question marks um you know Bose’s health is a question mark TJ Sanders can he step up right away can he play three downs what can they get out of him how do they use him that’s a question mark can he immediately step in because he’s going to get targeted right? If he plays, what does that look like? Cole Bishop taking a leap. So, I there’s young there’s young players there and I think that’s more where I’m I’m like, “Okay, I want to see how this plays out before I know how to feel about this defense.” Offensively, I’m not worried. And then finally, before we let you go, I mean, just an overarching view of the AFC East. There’s a lot of us here in Buffalo that feel like New England’s going to be a much tougher out this year. um with Varel as head coach May in year two, even though the offensive line there still needs some work, um we expect them to be a more formidable group on the defensive side of the ball. And I think we believe that they’re going to be the toughest out over the Dolphins and the Jets. The Dolphins seem to have a culture problem. Um the Jets are in year one under another rebuild. So, how do you kind of see this division shaking out? I mean, it’s I think the Bills pretty still easily clear everybody to be honest. Uh I said that last year. It’s funny. I think last year I saw a lot of like rhetoric around oh the Bill’s taking a step back and I remember doing my AFC East podcast and being like no what I feel crazy that this is even a conversation. Feel the same way this year. I think this year you know there’s a lot less um skepticism. But and actually I’ve uh I’m doing previewing the AFC East on my podcast next week. So Bills fans check that anytime show featuring Lenny. Um but yeah I guess you’re right. I I I would say the Patriots definitely are a team on the rise, but I think that’s a pretty significant gap to close with Buffalo. Yeah. And then the Jets and the Dol I I don’t know about the Dolphins to me seem just like a team ready to implode. Um they’re going in the other direction. Yeah. Just some bad roster decisions. It’s major holes on that defense. Question marks and the offensive, you know, Yeah. I’m not Good stuff. Good stuff. Mina, thanks so much for taking some time. I know you’re you’re the season’s going to crank up in a minute. We’re all going to be busy, but thanks for taking a minute. Well, I appreciate it. You guys always ask the best questions. Thanks for having me on. [Music]
ESPN NFL analyst Mina Kimes joined One Bills Live. She shared her thoughts on why Sean McDermott is on the cusp of being a top-5 head coach in the league, the ‘everybody eats’ mentality with the wide receiver group, and the evolving 12 and 13-personnel schemes with multiple tight end sets. Mina then discussed Buffalo’s defensive youth movement and took the temperature of the AFC East as a whole.
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9 comments
first
We got the Jimmys and Joes
Always love a Mina Kimes take.
13 personnel with Jimbo
Mina on OBL might be the fastest click I have ever made.
Last two minutes … ?
Big fan of Mina. Smart, knows the game and beautiful. The Korean version of Kay Adams.
Hey look it’s Lamar Jackson’s biggest fangirl
I see Mina and I watch. Smart as hell, super knowledgeable, objective. She's awesome.