Orlando Magic GAMBLE Everything on Championship Dreams | Weltman’s High-Stakes Bet

Orlando Magic GAMBLE Everything on Championship Dreams | Weltman’s High-Stakes Bet

Every interview, every time the Orlando Magic speak, they say their intentions out loud. And the reason is simple. They have no other choice. Why the Magic must win today on Locked on Magic. You are Locked On Magic, your daily Orlando Magic podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. And you are indeed locked on Magic. Today is July 18th, 2025. My name is Philip Rosenich. I’m the senior writer over at Orlando MagagicDaily.com. Credentialed member of the Orlando Magic Media since the 2012 season. On today’s episode of Locked On Magic, the Orlando Magic have made their intentions clear. They want to win the title and they are running from it. Why financially that needs to be the case over the next two to three years. The window indeed being open. We’ll talk about that, plus the cap sacrifice Orlando Magic made and how a big rival took advantage of that. We’re going to get to that coming up here in just a moment. But first, we want to thank you again for making Lockdown Magic part of your day every day. No matter when you listen to us, whether it’s first thing in the morning, whether it’s right when we upload, we truly appreciate you making Lockdown Magic part of your day. Every day, you can be part of our Orlando Magic dailies crew that suggested by one of the commenters. I like it. We’re going to stick with it. Be part of our everyday crew that listens to Lockdown Magic five days a week. We’ll be scaling back to three or four days a week coming up here uh in the next couple weeks or so after summer league ends. Take a little bit of break, get ready for Eurob Basket, all that stuff. No matter what, check us out wherever you download podcast. Truly appreciate you all listening to the show. The Lock On podcast network, your team every day. Today’s episode of Locked On Magic is brought to you by Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use code locked on NBA for $20 off your first purchase. Jeff Welman has been on NBA TV during a summer league game. He has been on SiriusXM NBA radio. He’s talked to us in the past few weeks as the Orlando Magic’s off season wrapped up and he did his work. and he has not hidden from what he believes this Magic team can accomplish. Inevitably in all of these interviews and Anthony Parker also interviewed during a during a a broadcast of the summer league games. Inevitably in all these interviews, everyone asks and pretty everyone asks with how clear the Eastern Conferences, with how much the Eastern Conference landscape has shifted and changed, did you feel like that was the reason why you pushed your chips in and got Desmond Bane and made all these big moves that have put the Magic near the top of the Eastern Conference or in the conversation at the top of the Eastern Conference? And inevitably Jeff Welman does some variation of this. He says, you know, we’re not worried about what everyone else in the East is doing. We’re running our own way running our own ways, but frankly, and I’m par I’m paraphrasing this very very much, but but this is the gist of what he’s saying. Frankly, we’re not in it just to win the East. We want to win the whole thing. We want to win the NBA. That has been the going line. That has been the going talk. That has been the going statement. The players may not be quite on that level and the players all are very very excited from everything they’ve said publicly about about the team coming up. The coaching staff probably isn’t putting that expectation on them. But the Magic are not hiding from these possibilities. The Magic are not hiding from what they feel they as a team are capable of doing. That is the reality of the Orlando Magic right now. That is the reality of their status in the league. That is the reality of this season. I will agree. And you know, there’s plenty of people that would probably say this to you. The Magic probably aren’t winning the title this year. Like, let’s be real. There’s still some uncertainty. There’s still some things they got to figure out. And there’s probably still some things to learn. And look, they got to win a playoff series first. But undoubtedly, that is the statement the Magic are making that they believe this is a future title team. Paulo Vancero and France Vager on their maxes. Jaylen Suggs getting paid $30 million. Desmond Bane getting paid $30 million plus. The Magic dipping into the tax for the first time since Dwight Howard was on the team. The Magic being with guaranteed salaries already over the projected first apron for the 2027 season. The Magic are putting their money where their mouth is. They are putting the money down and saying, “We believe we have a team worth spending on, paying the tax, doing dealing with the apron restrictions.” They are saying that loud and clear. But that’s the thing. We’re seeing this already around the league. Denver had to cut Contavius Clo Pope go to go to the Orlando Magic because they did not feel like they could pay the tax for him. The Boston Celtics facing the injury to Jason Tatum opted to do their dirty work now and started shedding the salary everyone expected them to shed slowly over the next couple years to bring down their tax bill. The Indiana Pacers with Tyresese Hallebertton now decided it was not worth going into the tax for a lost season and let Miles Turner go. These are the realities of the NBA. As Jeff Welman has said in the past as well, the salary cap comes for everybody. And the bill for the Orlando Magic is due. Well, it’s not due quite yet, but this is the heavy part. And the fact of the matter is, if you’re going to be an apron team, if you’re going to be a second apron team, which the Magic will be flirting with next season, if you’re going to be an apron team, you have to win. And you not only have to win, you have to win big. The teams that are second apron teams are all teams that should be championship contenders. These teams are the teams that are the top of the top according to Bobby Marks and his projections. The charter members are the Boston Celtics. They won a title in 2024 and then opted to cut salary to get back under the apron, get back under the tax so they could have a little bit more wiggle room. The Minnesota Timberwolves, they are all in right now. They spent those five first round picks on Rudy Gobear to transform their team. They’ve been to the conference finals two straight years. Whether that means that the apron experiment is a success or not, the Timberwolves are all in. But even then, that still made them decide between Nas Reed and Alexander Walker. They couldn’t keep both financially. The Phoenix Suns went all in trying to win with a second apron team and now they had to completely break apart to reset themselves. trading Kevin Durant, trading uh letting cutting Bradley Beal, buying out Bradley Beal, the Cleveland Cavaliers, now that Evan Mobley’s extension has kicked in, they are a second apron team, and them losing in the second round again would be a massive failure. And of course, the Oklahoma City Thunder are not a second apron team yet, just like the Magic aren’t a second apron team yet. But the Oklahoma City Thunder spent a lot of money to retain their championship team to keep their window open and they too will have to make some difficult decisions even if they continue drafting. Well, the Magic are in that group now, too. The Magic are in that group, and we’re going to go through some of the numbers here in a minute to explain this. The Magic have to win now because they are an apron team. Obviously this year they’re not by signing Tus Jones with the non- tax pyramid level exception. They hardcaped themselves at the first apron. They’re about one point by my math according to the figures from spot track. The Magic are about $1.3 million from the second apron from the first apron, the first apron hard cap. They cannot sign anybody else. They can’t even sign a minimum player to their current loan open roster spot because of that hard cap. They’re going to have to wait until the deadline. So, don’t expect the Magic to do anything until the trade deadline to fill that roster. They’re going to keep that roster spot open. The Magic have to win now. Not just because they have a team that is ready for it, but because they have a team that is expensive and a team that a team that pays this much payroll has to be a contender. It’s not merely puffing their chest out and believing in this team. It’s a requirement to spend like this. If the Magic lose again in the first round, heads are going to roll because this is an expensive team. Now, if the Magic don’t look like they can make a leap to a championship team, there’s going to be pressure. So, let’s be real about it. The Magic saw their window open, saw that this was their last opportunity to spend this way because of the big contracts coming for Paulo Beno and Franag. We’ll talk a little bit about some of those restrictions coming up here in a minute. The Magic knew they had to spend and they know now they have to win. So, what are what is the Magic situation and what are the ramifications of being in the apron? Well, I’m glad you asked. We’ll get to that coming up here in just a moment. But first, today’s episode of A Lockdown Magic is brought to our friends over at Game Time. We’ve all been there. 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Use code locked on NBA for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, create an account and redeem code locked on NBA. That’s L O C D O NA for $20 off. Download the Game Time app today. Last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed. So, let’s let’s get uh into the numbers here. We’re going to take out take out the calculators and and start talking a little bit. And and this is just intro to tax aprons 101. I want to repeat this. I haven’t gotten this question in a while, so I appreciate everybody for not not repeatedly asking this question. Um, but the Magic are not an apron team this year because the Magic signed Taius Jones using the non-T taxpayer mid-level exception. They are hardcapped at the First Apron, so they do not need to worry about any apron restrictions. They can make all the trades they want. The only thing they can’t do is exceed the First Apron under any circumstances. We’re going to get to Caleb Houston signing with the Atlanta Hawks, why that was a clear just cap related move. Um, and again, the consequences of being in the apron are things that is essentially the Caleb Houston situation. Um, the Magic could not bring him back on anything other than a two-way deal because they cannot exceed the the first apron under any circumstances. Anything having to do with the aprons, and I think this is a really important point that often gets lost, too. Anything having to do with the aprons, um, sorry, I got to find my thing. uh anything having to do with the aprons is uh is calculated after the transaction is done. So again, it it’s it’s these are going to be very kind of minuscule minute things. Uh and so just something to consider here a as we dive into this as we dive into to some of this stuff here. Um let’s just go through the numbers first and foremost. I think that’s that is the the best best best place to start. Um uh here are the numbers here. Just here are the the plain simple numbers. Next year 2026 2027 season. So not this upcoming season. The Orlando Magic already have 185 really 186 million guaranteed. That is assuming Paulo does not get the super max. if he gets the super max that increases by a little bit. So these numbers are going to be important. They also have another $28.6 million in likely options. That’s Jonathan Isaac, Anthony Black, Tristan Dilva. At this point, I am anticipating the Magic will decline the team option on Jet Howard. Um that is just my gut feeling. Would not shock me if they pick that up. That would make that would change some of these numbers. So the number that I am operating with and I am assuming that Jonathan Isaac’s contract will get guaranteed. I think you’ll hit the game’s play mark, all that stuff. The Magic don’t have draft pick next year. Don’t have to worry about that. This does include J. This also does include Jace Richardson and Noah Penda on like my pre my pre free agency stuff. I was eyeballing stuff. This doesn’t include Tus Jones obviously $7 million. Magic do have early bird rights on him. We’ll get to some of those in a little bit. That means the Magic’s likely payroll for 2027, just good little ballpark number to remember here, is $214.6 million. That alone is over the $29 million first apron. That is the projected first apron with 7% rate, 7% increase in the cap. $29 million first apron. So the Magic before we go anywhere are already a first apron team. Um that is just the first place to go. Now um uh just beyond anything else um beyond anything else the biggest restriction in the first apron is that you cannot take in more money than you send out. So you can’t make a deal like usually deals have to be within about 110% of salary. It is possible to take back more money in a legal trade. If you are over the first apron you cannot do that. That is the big big restriction. And there’s taxes involved at all these all this stuff which is a little less important. We’ll we’ll do an episode where I calculate the Magic’s tax bill just to give you a sense of how much extra the Magic are paying that there’s potential that the Magic would make a move to just simply cut their tax a little bit and that compounds. So it we’ll get to some of the stuff in a minute. So already the Magic are over the First Apron. So 2026 2027 season right now they’re hardcap to the First Apron. So they can’t exceed their first apron under any circumstances. Next season the Magic are restricted by the first apron. They cannot make the cannot make certain kinds of trades. They have to cut payroll. Essentially any move they make has to cut payroll. They do not have access to the non-taxpayer mid-le exception. I believe they would still have access to the taxpayer mid-level exception as long as they do not exceed the second apron. The taxpayer mid-level exception. Um if I’m not mistaken, I may be mistaken on this actually. um the taxpayer mid-le exception hard caps you at the second apron. The magic may do that, they may not. We’ll we’ll get to that when we get to it. The other part here is the second apron is set at $222 million. So the magic are a little less than $8 million in guaranteed money for 2027. Already they’re about $8 million from the second. So, assume that they’re going to give Mo Vagner, who signed a one-year contract and is not included in my totals there. Assume they give Mo Vagner a $10 million deal. They can do that. They have bird rights. You can always, you know, unless you’re exceeding a hard a hard cap, you can always resign your own free agents, but that puts you over the second. Essentially, if the Magic had any player of significance, if they want to sign Taius Jones, I believe they would have early bird rights on Taius Jones. So, they would be able to bring him back, but only to a certain amount. I believe it’s only like 120%. So, it be $8 million, let’s say. If the Magic want to retain their roster, they’re going to be a second apron team next next summer, next season. The second apron restrictions are much much much more punitive. In addition to being unable to tra uh take back more money than you send out, you always have to cut salary when you’re in the aprons. They would not be able to aggregate players. That means you can’t trade two players for one. You can only trade one player at a time or one player to each team in a multi-team trade. Um that is the that is the big big restrictive rule. And so you wouldn’t be able to combine uh you know whoever you want to combine. And Anthony Black will also be extension eligible. You got to deal with that coming up here. you wouldn’t be able to combine players to get one player to improve your roster. Essentially, if you are a Second Apron team, the only players you can sign are minimum players. And even then, even then, you can sign minimum players in the offseason. I think you’re fine there. But even then, you can’t sign a minimum player who made like 1520 million the year before or the season before or a certain amount the year before. We’ll get those exact numbers coming up, but you can’t hit the mercenary, what I call the mercenary market. The mercenary market is that buyout market after the trade deadline when quality players get traded to bad teams, they don’t want to play for them, they latch on to a championship level team. The Magic going to be in the mercenary market this summer to to grab a player um to to finish out their roster and help them toward the end of the season. Uh would not shock me if that’s the case. Um and again, the Magic Cap to reserve, that’s like 1.3 $1.4 $4 million before the first apron hardcap. They got to do all this. This is the future the Magic are staring down. And so while I think we’ll talk about Caleb Houston here in a minute, the I think the Magic wanted to keep Caleb Houston, it became really hard to because the Magic needed to spend the money this summer. They needed to go get a Taius Jones to complete their roster to add to their roster because whether they keep Taius Jones or not, Taius Jones isn’t included in any of those numbers I just said. They are an expensive team. They are a first apron team at the least next season and very, very likely a second apron team. That’s why we’re already talking about cap sacrifices. That’s why we’re already thinking a little bit about what happens two or three years down the road. And I’ll be the first to say it’s still too early to talk about all of this stuff. The Magic need to live in the moment. They need to maximize this group. See what see see how far they can go. But that’s the thing. That’s why it’s a two to three year window. And whether we like to admit it or not, we’re already seeing the Magic make these sacrifices. Why one of the Magic’s, you know, I don’t want to say brightest, but why one of the Magic’s young young stars has already not young stars, but young players has already been a sacrifice to the cap and why that’s already going to hurt the Magic. We’ll get to that coming up here in just a moment. But first, today’s episode of Lockdown Magic is brought to our friends over at Open Phone. If you’re running a business, you know that every missed call is money left on the table. Think about the last time you had an urgent need. Maybe a plumber or service provider. If the first person didn’t answer the phone, did you wait? Probably not. You moved on. That’s why you need open phone. Open Phone is the number one business phone system built to streamline and scale your customer communications all from an app on your phone or computer. Open Phone let you manage business calls and text from a single app. The shared inbox feature, a true game changer, so your team can jump into any conversation instantly without missing a beat. and their AI agent handles afterhour calls, answers common questions, and captures leads so you never miss a customer. Open Phone is offering our listeners 20% off your first six months at openphone.com/lockdona. That’s open phone. O pen pne.com. And if you have existing numbers with another service, open phone will port them over at no extra charge. Open phone, no missed calls, no missed customers. This is ultimately for better or for worse. We can argue these cap rules. We can argue these restrictions all we want. You know, NBA NBPA has a new president. Um we’ll see what happens with that. Um there we’re long way away from the next CBA negotiations. These are the rules. Um, and certainly part of this as well and part of the frustration I’m sure the Magic are feeling is that the NBA did project uh a lot of NBA teams were budgeting for a 10% increase in the cap, the maximum increase in the cap and the and NBA did send out a memo projecting a 7% increase in the cap. That changed everything. I don’t know if the Magic give France Vagner a max contract if they knew the cap was only going to rise by 7%. What’s done is done. Can’t go back. Can’t can’t change it. I think what we’re seeing is how the league intended that this cap to operate. They wanted it to be a hard cap. They wanted to spread talent around. They wanted these championship teams not to spend endlessly, but to have to make these difficult financial choices. I don’t think the NBA is thrilled that Boston broke apart as quickly as they did. I think the injury spurt that or Indiana broke apart. Again, injury spurt that. But I think like what Denver did with Contavius Cowwell Pope is exactly what the league is looking for. They’re looking at a team that had an expensive player, very key player that drafted what they hoped was his replacement in Christian Brown and made the decision to stick with the cheaper young player and let the more expensive player go, thus lowering their payroll. Denver played again, it worked out for Denver, didn’t work out for the Magic, but I think that’s exactly what the league is looking for. That is also what was in play with the news that came out today or came out on Thursday. The Atlanta Hawks, according to Michael Scott of Hoops Hype, will be signing Caleb Houston to a one-year contract. I hope I have made it clear that I was a big advocate for Caleb Houston. Um, everybody on the Magic loved him. Hard worker, really performed well when he got consistent minutes. Shot 50% from three over the last 18 games of the season. Didn’t shoot well in the playoffs. I’ll give you that. But Caleb Houston to me felt like the kind of guy that the Magic should keep around. He was cheap. He was b born into the system, really played well, really performed well, seemed like he figured some things out and was getting ready to turn a corner. That’s how I felt. And I was a big advocate of the Magic cannot afford to let this guy go. But these are the realities. For the Magic to get Tyus Jones, hardcap themselves at the first apron and resign Mo Vagner meant losing Caleb Houston. Even if the Magic wanted to sign Caleb Houston, his minimum contract, according to Spotrak, um his minimum contract is uh let me get this uh $2.6 million. I have the magic again using Spotrak’s numbers currently $1.2 million beneath the First Apron. Again, the Magic aren’t signing anybody until after the trade deadline so that they can stay under that first apron. Um, that’s just the again, you cannot exceed the hard cap under any circumstances. So, this is where the Magic are at. The Magic could not bring back Caleb Houston under the current cap math. He was gone. And so, now look, he is a 11th, 12th man, 10th man, ninth man. He’s a bench player. It isn’t the end of the world, but these are the kind of cap decisions everybody is making. And Atlanta, who still had some cap room, benefited from that decision. And now, and now a guy that I really believe was a key player for the Orlando Magic and someone who could have made this team a lot better. Now he is on one of their biggest rivals. The Hawks are going to be the fourth or fifth seed in the East. They are they are going to be a very good team. He is now on that team. And again, this is exactly how the salary cap and how these new rules were supposed to be mentioned, how are supposed to operate. It is a preview of the bigger decision that is coming down the pike for the Magic. Again, the big reason or one of the big reasons the Magic have to win now this next two to three years they’ve got to win and win big is because they’re going to have to probably make some heavy financial decisions because the tax is going to be heavy. They’re going to get hit with the repeater in a couple years. Um the aprons make it even heavier, make it even tougher to improve your team. This is the eb and flow of the league. Now the magic the the way I’ve described this to people is you’ve got about two to three years with any established core. I think that’s the reality of the new cap is you got two to three years. So the Magic are in their first two to threeyear window. The good news is Paulo and Fron are so young. Assuming you’re able to resign him, assuming you’re able to keep them, you should get three or four shot. you should get three or four of these two to threeyear windows. So this is the first two to threeear window and the magic of push their chips in. They are in it to try and win it during this window and then in three years they might have to decide well we got to trade Desmond Bane. We can’t afford this team anymore. We want to you know kind of reset the deck a little bit. Give us give us a little more flexibility to play in the next phase of this team. we got to trade Desmond Bane for something or as has been looked at by a few people including a few people on my staff at Orlando Magic Daily maybe this is when we got to let go Jaylen Sucks he’s in producing up to the contract level and his contract is frontloaded so it’ll be a little bit different but we can’t afford to pay him another $30 million they got essentially like there is going to be a point where the Magic might have to decide who are we paying between these two players we can’t pay everybody forever again those decisions are four years away, three, four years away. The Magic will have their chance to maximize this group before then. And that’s why this move was so brilliant. That’s why bringing in Desmond Bane on the first year of a five-year contract, getting him on the second year of that five-year contract was so big. The Magic don’t have to make these critical choices. As long as they’re willing to pay these taxes, as long as the Magic are willing to work under these restrictions, they don’t have to make these choices. They’ve got time to let this group figure it out, see how good they can be, and maybe make some small adjustments. Like, we all see it. Jonathan Isaac at 14.5 million, $15 million feels very heavy for the restrictions the Magic are under. That is a far more likely trade candidate than anyone else. Goabat at eight or $7 million to be your third center. The Magic might look at that and say, “We need to find a more effective way to use that salary slot to make our team better.” And that’s when you get into the trade game. That’s when you start fishing around for trades and figure out how to make those work. The Magic are dancing around the cap now. That’s the reality of it. And because they are dancing around these restrictions, they have to perform on the court to make it all worth it. The Magic are telling us they want to win a championship. They should be telling us that. They should be shouting it from the mountain tops, but it is equally as important not just to believe it, but to do it. The Magic with their payroll with all these restrictions that are coming up to them must win a title or must win at a high level over the next two to three years. as things will get very very sticky and much much more difficult if they’re not able to compete at this high level. As we’ve said all summer, pressure is a privilege. The pressure is indeed on. That’s going to do it for me today though. I want to thank you all again for listening to today’s episode of Lockdown Magic. You can find me on Twitter, phipr_omd, and on blue sky, phipr. You can subscribe to the podcast on Apple podcast. tune in him Google Odyssey and all city along the podcast to your podcast enable device find us on YouTube as well to search for locked on magic for the latest on the Orlando Magic be sure to check out orlandom magagicdaily.com you can find us on Twitter omagic daily and for even more Orlando Magic content including my video breaking down why Taius Jones is such an effective passer you can find that on my Patreon page at patreon.com/orlandomichub as always thank you for your support Now that you’re done making Lock on Magic your first listen of the day, go make Locked on NBA your second listen of the day because there is no offseason. Doug, Matt, and Hayes keep you up to date on contract negotiations, rumors, and everything you need to be the most informed NBA fan. Find Locked on NBA on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcasts. It’s all part of Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. That’s going to do it for me today, though. I want to thank you again for listening to today’s episode of Locked On Magic. will do a more formal recap of summer league coming up on our next episode on Monday. I am not planning as of now to go to go on after the game against the Mavericks. I’m not expecting no appenda to play. I’m not expecting Jace Richardson to play. Not expecting Tristan Dilva to play. If something happens, we’ll jump on here and do an episode, but more likely than not, we’ll save any thoughts, any wrap-up from summer league for Monday. So, have a great weekend. We’ll see you all again uh after the weekend. We’ll see you next week for another episode of Locked On Magic.

The Orlando Magic pushed a lot of chips into the middle to build a team they believe is on the path to win a championship. Orlando will pay the tax for the first time in 14 years this upcoming season and will be over the first apron next season. That means the window is open to win a championship is now as the team prepares for the restrictions of the first and second apron.

0:00 Intro: Magic’s intentions to win a championship
5:16 Financial realities of being an apron team
14:32 Magic’s projected payroll and apron restrictions
19:38 Two to three year championship window
24:45 Caleb Houstan signing with Atlanta Hawks

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