St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions Today | Best MLB Picks For 7/19/25

St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions Today | Best MLB Picks For 7/19/25

Hey guys, Adam Trigger here. It is Saturday, two and0 sweep on the free picks yesterday and I’ve got another one for you tonight. So, we’re going to talk Cardinals Diamondbacks. Listen, the Cardinals feel like they do what they do every year. They’re just a solid team. No real superstars, not flashy. Uh probably could use another starting pitcher or two. Uh but so far, I think very respectable for them. 51 and 47, two and a half back at the final wild card spot, right in the mix in the National League. um have had a pretty good season to date. Now, the Diamondbacks, on the other hand, I think on paper coming into this season, you would have expected them to be the the far superior of these two teams. And um the the fact of the matter is they were loaded on paper, had some injuries, and I I just don’t know that they’re the better team at this point, especially with Alcatel Marte, who’s taken some time off for some personal issues. I think his house got broken into over the All-Star break. So, I believe he is is on the restricted list for at least this weekend. And and in my opinion, he’s Arizona’s best player. So, take him out of the lineup. It’s certainly notable. Now, the Cardinals were not the better team last night, that’s for sure. Uh they let Brandon F just kind of carve them up. Seven scoreless for him. Uh got in a hole early in the second inning and it was a very lethargic effort from the Cardinals. Really never in that game. and um yeah, just a a poor performance from them out of the break. That being said, sometimes I’ll give teams a pass on that first game back if they don’t play well. You know, it just they’ve had four days off and sometimes that that Friday performance is not indicative of what a team is as a team and also what’s going to happen the next day. So, I’m willing to give the Cardinals a pass for just not seeming very into it last night in the opener in this series. Now, matchup here. I think really favors the Cardinals. Uh we’ll look at the starting pitching. You got Ryan Nelson for the Diamondbacks. Now, the interesting thing here is both of these starters on paper very similar surface numbers almost identical. You got Nelson with a 368 RA 1.07 whip and uh Gray is basically the same. I think he’s like 38 with a 1.08 whip. When you look at the underlying metrics for both of these starting pitchers, I think it paints like a a very different pitcher uh p picture of what’s going to happen going forward or what might happen in the second half. Now, Nelson’s got a great fast ball, 96, solid movement, big heater. It it plays at the big league level and it’s been very, you know, it’s been a big reason he’s been able to go five, six innings, turn in quality starts, and and he has the numbers that he has this year. The problem is no one’s swinging at his other pitches. So, it’s really fast ball cutter for Nelson and he’s able to to pound the zone and get ahead of hitters and that’s great, but he’s getting virtually zero chase on his other what are what are theoretically your out pitches if you’re a big fast ball pitcher. You know, you’ve you’ve got to have one other pitch that gets a decent amount of swing and miss or or you know, can get outs and he has three of them. curve, slide, or change, but none of them are are are particularly good and and he’s not getting a ton of swing and miss. So, when I look at a a guy that’s got a mid- threes erra and a whip near one, which are elite numbers for a starting pitcher, I tend to look for elite underlying metrics. And I’m not really seeing that with Nelson. And right now, the league is not the league as a whole figures out VO. like this isn’t 20 years ago where you can roll in, throw 98 and and you’re going to probably be just fine fast slider or fastball cutter, which Nelson goes. The league it as a whole is very good at hitting fast balls. So, in my opinion, if you don’t have a an off speed or a breaking pitch or or a pitch with some lateral movement that’s getting swing and miss, you you you’re not going to maintain those numbers as a a mainly a fastball guy. the league’s going to catch up to it and uh when they do, if you can’t get the swing and miss, it’s going to be hard contact and it’s probably going to lead to that erra and that whip going up. Now, on the flip side here, Sunny Gray, we know he’s been doing it for a long time and he does it with four or five different pitches that he and he commands all of them, right? So, like you have Sunonny Gray who is has virtually the same numbers as Nelson, but in my opinion, he’s the he’s the much more valuable starting pitcher at this point. He’s the one that’s more likely to maintain this throughout the course of the season. And the reason is he’s got fantastic command of five different pitches. He’s throwing them for strikes. He’s not giving up hard contact. And he is getting swinging miss. So all of those things lead me to believe that the the 108 whip for Gray in the mid-3s erra is probably indicative of what he’s going to be the rest of the season. And then you also add in the fact that Sunny Gray has been around longer. We’ve got a bigger sample size of knowing that he can do this at the big league level. So I think that gives the Cardinals a nice edge as far as starting pitching is concerned. I think you have to give the Cardinals a little bit of a lineup edge knowing Catal Marte is not playing. And then finally, the bullpen’s really where Arizona is taking the biggest hit. This was supposed to be a team that had Justin Martinez, AJ Puck. like this on paper, I thought this was going to be a very good bullpen coming into the to the season. They’ve had injuries. It just hasn’t been the case. Cardinals bullpen is is not, you know, it’s not elite, but it’s also probably top 15 in the league. So, it’s certainly not a bad bullpen unit. And they didn’t have to use anyone last night because they were getting blown out right right from the start. So, I think when you put all of those teams together, you’re talking about Cardinals here minus 115. Especially when you know Marte’s out. I think I make them a little bit bigger of a favorite. Have not bet this yet, but this is one that’s on my short list for Saturday. And if I do end up betting this, I will tweet this out. So, take a look at my Twitter atamtriggerwt. If I play this game, I’m not going to make you pay for it. I will just tweet it and put it on uh Twitter so you get a free play out of that. If I don’t put it up for clients though, I still it is one of my stronger leans for Saturday. If you want all of my plays right now, we have a great special at Wager Talk. You buy July or I’m sorry, you buy August and you get the rest of July free. So, the sooner you do that, the more free days you’re going to get. It’s only July 19th. So, we’ve got August up right now as a at a special rate and we’re throwing in the rest of July, which at this point is going to get you almost two free weeks. So, head on over to my page wt.buzzat. Check that out and make sure you’re following me on Twitter, Adam Triggerwt, because if Cardinals becomes a client play, I’m going to put it up there as well. And uh you may get a free one out of that. Hope everyone has a great weekend. Don’t forget, Total Bases every weekday, 9:00 a.m. Eastern on the Wager Talk YouTube channel. We’ll be back Monday morning. Good luck tonight. Have a great weekend. See you guys on

If you are looking for MLB picks, predictions and best bets for today’s St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks matchup, we have you covered! Our MLB handicapping experts discuss the spread and total from a sports betting perspective, sharing their picks and predictions vs the current odds.

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🔴 St. Louis Cardinals @ 🟣 Arizona Diamondbacks (D‑Backs)
📅 Date: Saturday, July 19, 2025
📍 Venue: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona

🕖 Game Time & Broadcast
First pitch: 7:15 PM ET (4:15 PM PT)
TV: MLB.TV for Diamondbacks local coverage; check regional sports networks

Listen Live: Cardinals — KMOX 1120 AM / ESPN Radio; Diamondbacks — KMVP‑FM 98.7 FM
Online Stream: Fubo (free trial available)

📊 Betting Line (as of July 19)
Spread: St. Louis –1.5; Arizona +1.5
Moneyline: ARI –110 to –101; STL –106 to –121
Over/Under: 8.5 total runs

🤼 Probable Pitchers
STL Sonny Gray (9–3, 3.50 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 118 K)
ARI Ryne Nelson (5–2, 3.68 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 65 K)

📋 Series & Team Trends
Cardinals lead the season series 3–1

St. Louis is 22–27 on the road; Arizona is 24–25 at home

Chase Field ranks among the top 4 hitter-friendly parks in MLB (+5%)

🌟 Fun Facts & Storylines
Ketel Marte’s tough stretch: After being robbed during the All-Star break, the 31‑year‑old infielder remains one of Arizona’s top hitters (.290 AVG, 19 HR, 165 OPS+)

Arizona’s history: The D‑Backs won the 2001 World Series only in their fourth season—one of MLB’s fastest titles

St. Louis batted .252 team average this season (10th in MLB)

📣 Get Social
Team Hashtags:
St. Louis Cardinals: #STLCards #Redbirds
Arizona Diamondbacks: #Dbacks #AriSnakes

🎥 Tune in to catch the action as two NL Central and West teams battle it out under the Chase Field lights!

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