Steelers Entire Season Depends on WHO? With NFL Analyst Warren Sharp

Steelers Entire Season Depends on WHO? With NFL Analyst Warren Sharp

[Music] What is up Steelers nation? Thank you so much for jumping on to another episode of All Steelers Talk. I’m no strik joined always by my main man Jacob Punur. Find us on youtube.com/allsteelers talker. Subscribe anywhere you get your podcast. We appreciate everybody jumping on to today’s pre-recorded episode. I know, I know we’re not live, but we got a good one for you featuring a special interview with the one, the only Warren Sharp of Sharp Footballanalysis.com. One of the brightest minds in all of the NFL, covering the NFL for almost two decades now. an insane brain to bring to sports analysis. And I’m going to be honest, you know, at least from my side of things, an interview that I was going into and we had our questions. You know, we’re we’re journalists. We come up with questions. I think we threw them all away the second he started talking because we realized just how deep this conversation was going to get and just how off the rails it was from the generic do you think they should sign and go trade for Terry McLuren and it immediately got so much better than what we expected. Shout out to Warren. We’re super excited to share that with you guys. Jacob, we just uh we just got off. I’m gonna ask you your opinion on it, but I have to ask because I ask everybody I ask you every day. How you feeling, my friend? Feeling good. Just heard a little thunder rumbling as I start. Yeah. So, I hope it’s uh clear skies for Creed over in uh Williamsport, but uh I hope so too. Scranton, we made our way from Williamsport to Scrant. Had to make the pit stop. You got eliminated from the Little League World Series and I had to get out of there before it got too crazy. You know what I mean? Williamsport and their 15 people, man. They get bumping on on Wednesday nights. So sheets was just electric. Yeah, it was actually cuz it gas was 274. So it was Yeah, it was electric. Electric would be the word. But sorry, I didn’t mean to interrupt. No, you’re good. You’re good. No, but I’m doing good. Uh, all things considered, hanging in there. Middle of the week, just kind of rumbling through. Uh, just like that thunder. Um, but man, that was cool. My nerd brain was so satiated talking to Warren Sharp. Incredible mind. Insane brain is a is too nice a word maybe that the the man knows his numbers in uh in a way that you know you and I certainly don’t talk about a lot. You know, we’re not deep in the the data analytics all the time. I know you and I are fans of it in different degrees. Uh but to hear from an expert like Warren uh to get his insight and to poke uh poke around a little bit with him was was really really cool. So, yeah, I’ll echo what Noah is saying and and say how excited I am to share our chat with him with y’all. Yeah. And we’ll we’ll dive into that here in just a couple of minutes. We’ll start with some news and notes for the day. Some teams uh they’re calling the the 49ers looking for good old Jawan Jennings. And maybe, just maybe, the Pittsburgh Steelers were one of them, but they probably don’t have much of a shot. According to Adam Shfter, quote, “Several teams have already inquired about Dwan Jennings availability, but the 49ers said they have no desire in trading the wide receiver. They also had no desire in trading Brandon Iayuk or Debo Samuel, both of whom were eventually on the trade block and or traded.” Do you believe a single word that comes out of a head coach’s mouth that through a report that says, “Nah, you know, we’re not looking to trade him right now. That’s not really uh on our to-do list on July 16th when there’s no reason for us to trade him. Do I believe it? Uh no. I I don’t buy it at all. Um I look I I’m sure that the 49ers do want to retain Jawan Jennings. I’m sure that they want him on their team. I think they see themselves as a Super Bowl contender and I think that they see Jawan Jennings as being an important piece in making that Super Bowl attempt. Um, and I respect that. I really do. I just don’t think that that eliminates the possibility that they would have trade conversations, especially as this topic for the second summer in a row has come up regarding Jawan Jennings. And it seems like he is growing more and more frustrated uh and you know, less complicit being in this situation. So if we if we’ve learned anything from this recent updates from the Terry McLaren situation, if is if the frustration mounts, something is going to have to give one way or the other. So I think the 49ers want to keep Jawan Jennings, I totally, you know, believe that. But I do not believe Kyle Shanahan saying that they are not going to trade him outright. um or even if he believes that truly and is being honest, the organization does not believe that at all because if they need to move on from him, they’re going to and they’re not going to let a contractual demand from their second best wide receiver, you know, um hamstring them going into the season. So, no, I don’t buy it at all. No, me neither. I look at at the end of the day, teams do not care. you know, these players are numbers and if we have trade conversations about TJ Watt, if there are reports out there about, oh, the Steelers are doing their due diligence, then the 49ers are open to it as well. And I never believe a head coach that says, yeah, you know, like we’re not going to trade him right now. You don’t, if the right offer presents itself, Dwan Jennings means nothing to to the San Francisco 49ers. is a a wide receiver too on a team that drafted a wide receiver in the first round last year who at some point is going to move on and and don’t most likely have the money to keep him long term. Does do I think that means the Steelers have a chance? No. I think it’s July 16th. I think that if a move’s gonna happen, it’s going to be the middle of August after a preseason game when they go, “Dang, Ricky Pierall is a stud and we don’t need Juan Jawan Jennings and we can move on.” So to me, I do not believe it. Obviously, an update that you have to keep an eye on, but at the end of the day, like the Pittsburgh Steelers, if they called the San Francisco 49ers right now and said, “We’ll give you a third round draft pick.” I bet you there’s a conversation to be had. I do. Do I think that it ends in a trade? No, I don’t. Not right now. But I do think that they would at least they wouldn’t say no. No, no, we’re not entertaining this. No, they’d entertain it. And they’d see where they can get for it. And if it worked out, great. If it doesn’t, who knows? But it’s July and they’re going to take all phone calls like every other team’s going to do because Jawan Jennings is not Brock Pury, who they also probably took phone calls for. and they will move on from anybody outside of a key cornerstone piece of their franchise which is their quarterback and probably Nick Bosa and Fred Warner and that might be it. So, and Christian McCaffrey obviously, but I just don’t think that uh that I believe a word that he says. Here’s another one. Okay, TJ Watt on the news and notes. We’ve talked TJ Watt every single day for the last month it feels like. Well, kaboom. Good old Mark Kaboli said on 93.7 the fan quote I heard on Friday and I put that out there on the X that it’s more than just one thing. It’s definitely the length of the contract. I’m not sure the specifics, but I’m assuming he does want five years. I think he wants four of those guaranteed and I think he wants to be the highest paid edge rusher as well. We have no issue with five years. We have no issue with making him the highest paid edge rusher in the NFL. We disagree a little bit on how much guaranteed money the Pittsburgh Steelers should give him. You are pretty gung-ho and pay the man every penny in the Rooney trust fund. I am not as into it as you are. And I got to admit Warren Sharp gave us a pretty If he convinced me one way or the other, I lean heavily towards sign TJ Watt and we’ll obviously get into that here soon. Would you guarantee him four years? Four years. That’s $160 million. Mhm. It’s a lot of money. If Noah, if you thought we disagreed on what they should do regarding a three-year guarantee, you are not going to like my thoughts here. Yeah. I I Yes, I think you have to do it. I don’t think the Steelers have allowed themselves any other way forward. Not if they actually want to be a winning team. If they actually want to pursue a Super Bowl, then they have to do whatever it takes. They have backed themselves into a corner and TJ Watt is pulling these strings like a marionette. I tell you what, is like Jeppetto and Pinocchio because they’re he’s got them right where he wants them. They’re going to have to give him, you know, at least a three-year guarantee at this point because now he’s asking for a four-year guarantee reportedly. I would still do it. I think he is worth it. It’s a huge risk. It is a huge gamble. It will not work in their favor in years four and five for sure. There’s no avoiding it. But for the first three years, I don’t care. It’s worth it. And for 2025 alone, worth it for me. I’ll let you I’ll let you respond. That’s so nuts, dude. That’s so nuts. There’s a line that needs to be drawn at some point. And TJ Watt guaranteeing $160 million is that he’s he’d be 34 years old. 34 years old. Mhm. At what? 34year-old edge rusher in the NFL who bases his game off of speed and not power are you handing $42 million to and saying if you stink we still have to pay you every single penny if you get hurt with what TJ Watt has done over the last couple of seasons. We still have to pay you every single penny. I’m a you pay TJ Watt guy. I’m a TJ deserves the money. You give him three years guaranteed. You take the risk on the third year. It’s worth it. You pay him more than Miles Garrett because he’s better than Miles Garrett. And I think that you and all of your Super Bowl aspirations go right out the window right with TJ Watt the second you get rid of him. Four years is nuts. That’s nuts. That’s too much money. N I can’t name an edge rusher. JJ Watt retired before 34 years old. And TJ is going to be worth $42 million guaranteed. That’s just it’s nuts. And what do you Okay, so it goes deeper than that. What do you What do you tell Jerry Jones when Jerry Jones calls the Pittsburgh Steelers and says, “Who are you, the Cleveland Browns? What the hell did you just do? What What was this? You think now I got to pay Michael Parsons a fully guaranteed deal because you just gave him four out of five years gu you are setting the NFL up for f I mean I just think it’s I it just doesn’t work like you you’d have the whole league pissed off of you if you did that. I agree with you 100% and I think it’s more realistic that TJ will not get his way if he is uh demanding four years guaranteed because the league is so as we talked about they do not want to guarantee full contracts and they will do whatever it takes to not guarantee them. Um and the players are understandably whe whatever side of the aisle you’re on are understandably pushing back really hard. We, you know, we talked about the second round picks of this 2025 class. 30 of them have not signed a deal yet because they want a guaranteed contract like the dude whose name I’m forgetting from the Houston Texans, Jaden Higgins. Thank you so much, sir. You’re welcome. So, we there’s a battle already being already happening. You know, I think Jerry Jones is probably already having these conversations of being like, “What the hell are you guys doing?” Like, you don’t think he probably called the Houston Texans owner and was like, “You just you just darn screwed me out of that thing.” or whatever he sounds like. I don’t know what he sounds like, but has my southern voice. Yeah, I hope he sounds just like that. I I pictured uh Doug Dilladome and that’s that’s who I pictured. That’s who I pictured. That’s That’s how I hope I hope that he gets out of a ridiculously long stretch limo with a hat that’s even higher. That’s what I hope the Houston Texans owner looks like. For sure. For sure. It is. But yes, I I Yes, Noah. I I 100% agree with the the realistic logical approach you are saying that the owners will probably get their way before TJ Watt does but I think it is one have to ask the question and I know it’s illogical and I know it goes against what the entire precedent is for edge rushers but what if he is productive for those years? I’m not guaranteeing it either. I think he’s going to be productive for at least three more years. And to me, it’s worth the sunken cost of the additional years of perhaps mediocrity to guarantee those three years. That being said, what if he does it for all four years? And secondly, the Steelers have given themselves no leg to stand on, no leverage. They are backed into a corner in every single way. They’re going to have to give concessions at some point. I agree that. So, you know, I think it’s crazy, but it just might happen. Look at Look it. If you want to know what happens if TJ Watt’s good for those four years, he plays a fifth year and he makes $42 million a season. That’s what he does. Because if he’s good the three years, you want to know what he does the fourth year, he makes $42 million and he plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers. It’s not a matter of how long he should stay here. It’s about how much going into the season after his worst season as a pro since his rookie year, his worst healthy season as a pro since his rookie year to a a record-breaking deal coming off multiple injuries and you’re saying four years from now you’re going to be great at 34 years old because that happens all the time. Go ahead. Give me an edge rush with it because JJ Watt retired at 33. Okay. 33 years old. And I mean, he had 12 and a half sacks, but I don’t think he was paid $41 million a year. I think he was paid like $15 million a year his final season. Guy, give me an edge rusher. Give me any legendary edge rusher that you think would be in the same conversation as TJ Watt at 34 years old. And I guarantee you they they weren’t worth the the the highest paid guaranteed contract at the age of 34. Dwight Freeny. Dwight. That’s a good one. That’s a good pull. That’s a That’s a very That might be the That’s a good pull. That’s a good pull. I’m not going to lie. That’s a good pull for sure. 34 years old. He played 16 games. He started nine for the San Diego Chargers, which is Okay. Yikes. Not a good pull. You want to know? You want to know how many You want to know how many sacks he had? I I brought it up. Three and a half. Jacob, three and a half sacks. You want to know what he did at 30 years old? He had 10 sacks. And you were probably arguing. I mean, Dwight Free got it in the tank. Yeah, you pay the man. You want to know what he did after that? Eight and a half, five, half a sack, three and a half sacks. eight three retirement. It doesn’t happen. And do I think J TJ can change it? Certainly. Do I think paying him four years fully guaranteed money makes any sense at all? No. And if and to be honest with you, I think if TJ is being the guy that’s saying, “If you don’t guarantee me four years, I’m gone.” I think that’s a little ridiculous as well. Like I agree with that for sure. Like if that is the point of contention where it’s either this deal gets done with four years guaranteed or I will not play another down as a Pittsburgh Steeler, I I you lost. You Yeah, you can’t like you lost either way. Like there’s no winning in that situation. So, but if that is the point of contention, uh then I you know Yeah, the it makes it very real. I I have a really hard time believing that the the four years guaranteed is the main sticking point. Um, not saying I uh not to discredit the Kaboomster, but like I I just don’t know if I believe that that is the one sticking point because I don’t believe the premise that you just voiced a minute ago that like the TJ Watt has any intentions of giving some sort of ultimatum of like I either will get this amount, years, duration, whatever, or I will not play another down for the Pittsburgh Steelers. I don’t think that’s what he’s doing. Um, could be wrong 100%. And I don’t think you’re wrong about, you know, guaranteeing four years to an edge rusher after 31 is wild. I think the prevailing thought that I keep coming back to is the Steelers have no leg to stand on. So, what else are they going to do? They don’t. But at some point, you do have to draw a line in the sand and say, “Look at dude, this is getting you’re asking for too much. This isn’t, you know, you you aren’t you’re just hurting us at some point.” And I think I think four years, that’s where we uh that’s where we stand. All right, with that said, let’s dive into it. It’s the Warren Sharp interview. I’m super excited for it. I won’t hold you guys up anymore. Let’s keep it trucking. Diving into it. What’s up, Steelers Nation? I am so thrilled to announce today’s special guest. The uh the man I think many people have looked for to explain some rough Steeler stretches. Uh 19 plus years as one of the biggest and brightest voices. Amongst those in the NFL, you could find his latest book at sharpfootanalysis.com. And uh we’re excited to pick your brain today. That is the one, the only Warren Sharp. Warren, uh we’re thrilled to have you today. Yeah, I’m thrilled to be here, too. Obviously, the Steelers seem to be one of those teams every single year. The the good news is you’re in contention. People are talking about you. The bad news is you’re never really getting to the spot that you want to be yet. But, uh, yeah, I’m I’m happy that we’re getting ready to enter training camps for all 32 teams momentarily. I’m done writing that 586 page behemoth of a football preview book, which I think you guys got a copy of it. Uh, at least I hope you did. My editor, uh, my, uh, producer is supposed to send a copy over to you guys. Um, but yeah, it’s it’s it’s great to have that out in the wild and then be able to join shows such as yourselves and, uh, and talk a little bit about expectations for the upcoming season. Yeah, I I kind of wanted to give you the floor here before we start and just tell fans, you know, we have Steelers fans, but every once in a while, as as you and probably everybody else do, you get fans from all over the place. What can you look for in this book? This is this is a yearly release of this book and and what what can we expect? So, I’ve got I’ve got the printed copy here right now, which I have no idea why, but you can get this printed copy on Amazon for only like $38, which if you take 586 pages and try to go to Kinko’s and ask them to print that for you, it’s going to be well over $100. So, I have no idea that what like they dropped the sale price today to I don’t know what day this is going to come out, but today the sale price is $39 for this book of 586 pages. If you want to get it for just a dollar. So that’s a great sale and and I don’t control that price. If you want it to for just a dollar for the PDF though, it’s regularly $30 on my website. Go to sharp.foot, enter the code Steelers, and it will drop the price down from $29 to $1 so you guys can check it out. Uh we’ll be talking about the Steelers chapter. There’s 32 chapters, one for every team, obviously. And I go through and break down uh what teams did last year. I totally destroy the maddenism. You are what your record says you are. I don’t believe that whatsoever. I think so many different factors go into teams wins and losses from a prior year. And so I examine really what that team was last year and then what they lost via free agency, what they gained via free agency in the NFL draft, different coaches that might be there, uh, and then what their expectations are for this year and whether they’re justified or not. Um, and I talk a lot about coaching and play calling and decision- making and uh, in some cases like the Steelers, I go back a few years and I talk about the direction of the franchise and some of the things that they’ve struggled to do in terms of finding that franchise quarterback um, for other teams. I talk a little bit more about the future. So, uh, there’s a lot in here. This takes months of work. Uh, I started in late February to early March and I’m non-stop working on it more or less all the way through to uh, end of June when I finish it. And we’ve got stuff in here from a fantasy football perspective, from a betting perspective, uh, and just from a general fan perspective. So, for $1, if you want that PDF, you’re not going to get better bang for your buck to get prepared for the upcoming season. So, again, it’s at sharp.foot. That’ll redirect you to the purchase page and you enter the code Steelers. You’ll get it for $1. That’s uh that’s awesome and everybody should go check that out. Uh it’s a phenomenal read. I’m working my way through the the Steelers. I actually got the book yesterday and spent I my brother lives in Williamsport. We’re out here to see Creed, which you know, you can’t go wrong seeing it. Yeah. And there’s nothing to do in Williamsport. So, where did you catch me for the last 12 hours reading the Steelers chapter? So, thank you very much, Jacob. I’ll let you uh kick us off here. Ah, thanks Noah. Warren, thanks for your time and letting us pick your brain a little bit here. Uh, I’m curious about your input here on a debate Noah and I have been having as far as positional needs for the Steelers. Safety and wide receiver seem to be the two biggest holes. Which do you think is a bigger need for the Steelers? And second part here, which do you think they will address first before the 2025 season? Uh, well, I don’t I don’t you know, I think at first they’re probably going to just get one of the wide receivers that Aaron Rogers wants them to get is my guess. So, that’s where I would think that they would go first. Um, the issue is I just don’t see the upside in a lot of those guys that Aaron Rogers has just been going from city to city with town to town like a three- ring circus. You know, unpacking here, setting up shop there, and just bringing, you know, he’s the center, you know, the the middle ring there of the three- ring circus, but bring in these other receivers. I think you need to go after the guys that are actually going to help raise the ceiling of the team, not the guys that he likes the most. And so it’s not going to be the Allen Lazard and before that it was the Randle Cobb and the players like that. Um I I love the fact that they went out there and took a swing on a DK Metaf when they realized that it wasn’t going to work out with George Pickkins. I think there’s a lot there for DK Metaf. Um and his approach to the game from a more professional perspective, even though he gets frustrated as much or more than George Pickkins potentially. Remember DK played out in Seattle. They didn’t necessarily throw the ball a ton in Seattle. He’s used to that. Arthur Smith probably not going to throw the ball a ton in Pittsburgh. Although I I would expect with Aaron Rogers, he raises that a little bit because you have to consider the quarterbacks that Arthur Smith has been working with in his prior stops, right? Whether it was in Tennessee or Atlanta was just an absolute disaster. And then in Pittsburgh, it hasn’t been pleasant over the last couple of years either. So with Aaron Rogers there and Aaron Rogers saying this is like his last goaround. I think they are going to be throwing it more. I think the first stop that they’re probably going to do is is get a receiver, but I believe that they need to be going after a different type of receiver than they’re probably going to end up uh signing and is going to be one of Aaron Rogers buddies as opposed to not that there’s really great receivers on the free agent market right now. Um, but like I I believe that you guys have already invested a ton into your defense. And so you could definitely argue that um maybe safety positionally is more of a need, but if you look at your draft picks, if you look at your who who you were spending the bigger bucks on in free agency, you’ve addressed a lot on the defensive side of the ball. You’re running a lot of the offense back. You know, DK, George Pickins, swap, whatever. the rest of your offense and of course Aaron Rogers is largely the same offensive line running back core you drafted a new running back who’s going to be supporting Warren but other than that I mean I think with the likelihood that you’re probably going to pass the ball more you probably are going to be going after a wide receiver first when you you look at the the roster and you know I’m going to take you back to the Matt Canada days because I used you on this show constantly to help explain what was happening in the Steelers offense and just how bad it was at the time. I think Steelers fans have, you know, a little bit of PTSD. They’re very nervous about new offensive coordinators and and Arthur Smith’s year last year wasn’t, you know, it wasn’t great. Just like you said, dealt with some quarterback change, dealt with maybe a lack of of superstardom at the wide receiver position and at the running back position. Do you see that changing with with Aaron Rogers? Do you see a mesh there? you know, not not really are they going to throw more, but more so can those two work well together? Do you see that that working out? Well, it is going to have to require Arthur Smith to make some changes in his philosophy and in his play calling and his aggressiveness. Um the because he has been wanting to run the football more, but honestly, that hasn’t been working out for the Pittsburgh Steelers particularly. And I had some stats in the book uh I’m trying to pull them up here that that were just mind-boggling with regards to uh what Matt Canada was doing in Pittsburgh and how terrible that was as we all know and live through and and have the PTSD. Uh, but then what Arthur Smith’s offense was doing to start games last year because I was very much so I mean I remember recording videos two years ago about Matt Canada’s disastrous start to games and the way that his play calling was. But I’m looking up here the NFL uh the Steelers were the NFL’s worst offense on first downs last year. They also were the 30th ranked offense on first quarters. They averaged 0.92 points per drive in first quarter drives, which was worse than the Matt Canada offense of 2023. So I I I know that um actually Canada was there the year before that. Smith has been there since 2023. I’m getting my year screwed up, right? This was this is Smith’s third year there. Uh second second. So he was Okay, so I was right. Canada was 2023. The Steelers averaged 1.17 points in first quarter drives, which ranked 24th. Last year, they averaged Arthur Smith’s first year, 0.92 points per drive, which was 30th. This offense was worse in first quarters with Arthur Smith than it was with Matt Canada. And I wrote in the book, I didn’t think that it would be possible, but it actually was when you look back at the numbers. And on first downs, they averaged 4.5 yards per play, which was dead last in the NFL. They averaged 34% success rate, which was 31st in the NFL. And they averaged minus.09 EPA per play, which was 28th in the NFL. And what I wrote is, if you had told me that an Arthur Smith combined with Russell Wilson first down offense was worse than Matt Canada and Kenny Picket, I would never have believed you. But that’s what it was last year. And so when you incorporate Aaron Rogers into the mix, like he’s already gone from Kenny Picket to Aaron Ro uh sorry, Kenny Picket to Russell Wilson. Yeah. And they were less effective and that should not be the case. It’s up to Arthur Smith to figure out a way. Now you got Aaron Rogers who theoretically is a little bit better than Russell Wilson, although I’ve got some numbers that say maybe the difference isn’t as big as what a lot of people think it could be. You’ve got a better quarterback, at least historically, in there with Aaron Rogers. This is on Arthur Smith. He He’s got to figure out a better way to call offense on first downs, to call offense at first quarters, to try to start games a lot faster for the Pittsburgh Steelers because when they have started games fast, they have had a lot of success. It’s just that they have not started games fast. And I’ll throw this last stat that’s from the book that sounds impossible. I tweeted this out there. You guys have probably talked about it before, but maybe some people haven’t listened to the podcast, and I’ll retweet it to get more people in here who have never listened to the podcast either. This is really hard to do. The Steelers own opening drives of games last year, opponents scored more touchdowns than the Pittsburgh Steelers did. On the Steel, when the Steelers have the football, their opponents scored more touchdowns than they did. They scored zero opening drive touchdowns themselves. They threw one pick six to allow their opponents to, and I’m talking about all games combined, zero opening drives, touchdowns. And I go back the last six years, 100 games were played the last six years. The Steelers ranked dead last in opening drive touchdowns over the last six years. To me, this is in part Mike Tomlin as well because you have Yeah, you have bad offenses. Yeah, you have bad quarterbacks. Yes, you need a a um a better play caller as well. and you need a better focus of how you’re going to find that franchise quarterback. All that’s understood. But when you have a defensive-minded head coach who hamstrings some of the offense maybe and doesn’t allow them to open up games quickly enough and throw the ball a little bit more frequently or try to start with some explosive plays or try to build a lead, then you wind up with the dead last offense in the entire NFL at scoring on opening drives. So something’s got to change. And I don’t think that just because you added Aaron Rogers, all of a sudden it erases six years of this pathetic first quarter offense and opening drive offense. Um, it it’s got to be the coaching and the play calling from your head coach Mike Tomlin to give Arthur Smith and Aaron Rogers a little bit more flexibility to get aggressive early on in games to Arthur Arthur Smith embodying that and taking that u under his advisement and actually going out there and calling more aggressive plays for Aaron Rogers. So, uh, what you don’t want to have with with the Pittsburgh Steelers this year, if you’re a fan, is to constantly see Aaron Rogers walking off the field after the opening drive with his head down or shaking his head and and ripping off his chin strap like he typically does out of frustration. Uh, you you got to start this off with a little bit more positivity early on in games. And if you happen to blow a game, it’s one thing, but you got to start faster. And that’s something the Steelers just don’t seem to know how to do. Wow. Yeah. I mean, well said, Warren. And I think you are going to be stoking the uh the fears and rekindling sort of the the PTSD of the past few years, and we are hoping to avoid it again. That’s the goal for sure. I have one more question about the offense, and it’s just a little bit more personnel related. Do you think Arthur Smith will feel more comfortable or maybe be given more flexibility or freedom to open up the offense with these new personnel pieces? I’m thinking specifically about Janu Smith and how much of a fit he is into what Arthur Smith likes to do offensively. Do you think the addition of him will have any sort of impact on big plays or just getting uh offensive production quicker for the Steelers this year? I hope so. Um I was actually looking at um here’s my main concern. I was looking for the New York Giants and some of the work I was doing there about Russell Wilson and where he was having success last year out of 11 personnel versus heavier personnel groupings. And if you flip to the Giants chapter in the preview, you can read a little bit more in case you want to get some history on what Russ was doing well versus poorly last year. And I didn’t know this when I was sitting there watching the games. But when I went back to spend months researching things, I was shocked because it translates to what Russell Wilson’s going to be doing in in New York for the Giants because Dal operates his offense at the fifth highest rate of 11 personnel. And the Steelers were down at like the 26th highest rate of 11 personnel. And the year before that, the Denver Broncos, where Russ was was the 25th highest rate of 11 personnel. So, he has been in two offenses back-to-back years, Shawn Payton’s and then uh Arthur Smith’s where Russ was not having a lot of 11 personnel. But the numbers are staggering, the juxtaposition and the difference between how efficient Russ was utilizing 11 personnel and how terrible he was at throwing passes out of heavier personnel groupings. And um I mean we’re not even out of like 44 quarterbacks, we’re literally talking about he was 40th or worse in like five key statistics throwing the ball out of heavier personnel groupings and yet they threw the ball out of 11 personnel at the 26th highest rate. So that tells me that you guys aren’t doing enough self-couting and analysis throughout the course of the season to figure out when Russ is having more success and adapting the offense to fit that and instead you’re utilizing what Arthur Smith wants to do as a more stagnant approach to the season as a whole and just moving through the season without tweaking it enough. Uh, which causes a little bit of fear for me with what they might do this season in that are they gonna try to fit Aaron Rogers into the Arthur Smith hole? That doesn’t sound right, but are they going to try to make Aaron Rogers do what Arthur Smith wants them to wants him to do or are we going to try to get this offense to really adapt to what Aaron Rogers wants? Now, we have no idea when on what went on behind the scenes there. And clearly Aaron Rogers, we know two things. one, he chose the Steelers. Two, he said this is going to be his last year there. Now, he said that he wants to play for like a story franchise and really gives a lot of uh pat on the back to Mike Tomlin and what the Pittsburgh Steelers franchise means. Um, but all that aside, like were there any discussions with Arthur Smith or Mike Tomlin about how they’re going to tweak this offense to do what Aaron wants it to do to be a little bit more 11 personnel heavy, spread the field a little bit more? I I have I have no idea. I just know in prior stops for Arthur Smith that has not been something that they’ve done in Tennessee, in Atlanta, in Pittsburgh. So, will they make a make a a change for Aaron Rogers? That remains to be seen, but it it probably would help things in my opinion uh if they leaned a little bit more to doing what Aaron Rogers wants them to do. And then if it doesn’t have success, then you can pivot back. And we’re not talking about going like LA Rams Shawn McVey frequencies of 11 personnel here like 90 plus percent. Let’s just move from like bottom seven or eight in 11 personnel usage up to potentially league average and then experiment from there and lean into it more if it’s working and move back from it if it’s not if heavier sets are working. In order to do that though, you have to be studying the data every single week and tweaking it and making adjustments. Based upon that, I want to I I want to switch over to the defensive side of the football. There’s there’s a lingering question or name, his name is TJ Watt, and what’s going to happen to TJ Watt? I I mean, in an analytical side of this, is it is it as clear-cut as the Steelers are 1 and 11 without TJ Watt? Is there more that goes into it? And is that, you know, a big enough argument to say the Steelers and the step back that they would take would be that significant, that drastic if they were to? And, you know, everything that we’ve heard and have reported is that a deal will eventually get done, but right now it’s still on the table. Is it can it get that bad? Is is there more into this than just a one in 111 record to say the Steelers need or don’t really need TJ Watt? I I think it could get that bad if they don’t have him. I think the one in 111 record is is quite um clear. Uh his onoff splits secondarily are quite clear. I’m trying to find the statistic about um I think it’s at the very beginning of the chapter. Um so you guys were plus 11 in turnover margin in 2023. You were plus 16 in turnover margin last year. You guys are 15 and six in one score games. You’ve won the third most one-sore games in the NFL. You have the third best win rate in one-score games over the last two years. The only two teams that were better in one-score games were the Super Bowl champs and the Super Bowl runnerup, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles. So, you guys are third best in terms of one-score games. What all of this tells me is that you rely a lot on the defense and the defense has to be there delivering because the offense has been terrible. I ran the regression analysis on the offense and I’ll just tell you that um the Pittsburgh Steelers have won 10 games. They won 10 games last year despite leading at halftime in just five games, which is crazy. Uh is the same exact result in 2023. There have been 61 teams to win 10 or more games over the last five seasons. Of those 61 offenses on those teams, the Steelers rank 59th and 60 out of 61 offenses in yards per play. They rank 58th and 59th out of 61 offenses in success success rate. They rank 56th and 60th out of 61 offenses in EPA per play. What this tells you is that if you if you look at what they actually did offensively in those games, their yards per play over the last two years offensively would equate to a team that’s won 6.75 games, not double- digit games. Their success rate stats offensively would equate to a team that’s won between five.9 and 6.4 games. their e EPA, expected points added over the last two years in their games offensively, would equate to a team that’s won between 6.2 and seven games. So, what we’re saying is that the offense has only been getting this team between around six to seven wins. It’s the great fortune that they’ve had in these one-score games. The turnover margins thanks to a bunch of takeaways and their ability to win in these one-sore games that have actually led them to have the winning records led them to have the playoff appearances. And so, if you remove a guy like a TJ Watt, we already know this offense is terrible. This offense isn’t an offense that is capable of getting them to the playoffs. This has not been an offense that’s been capable of getting them to winning records. even their offense is well worse than that. And so if you remove TJ Watt from the defense and the defense falls off even a little bit, which it might fall off more than a little bit, that could be a catastrophe for the way that you guys have built this team. Uh now, I know you added Aaron Rogers, but I’m just saying it could be a catastrophe. I personally don’t think it’s going to happen. I think the Steelers would be ludicrous to allow that to happen. So, I’m banking on Watt playing in Pittsburgh this season. I I can’t imagine a scenario where that doesn’t occur, but were it to occur, I think the drop off is going to be substantial and it’s going to show up in the one-sore game margin and I think you’re going to fall from the third highest win rate in one score games to something much lower than that and as a result falling out of uh playoff contention probably. Yeah, the the Steelers love nothing more than to win very close one score. I mean, a Mike Tomlin embrace. I’ve been to too many press conferences after a game where Mike Tomlin’s got a smile going, “That’s football.” And you’re like, “Nah.” Is it? I guess for the Pittsburgh Steelers, I guess it is. Uh Jake, we we’ll finish it off with you. I know you got one more and then uh then we’ll close it out. I do. Thank you. Um we’ll stick with the defense here. I I just I’m curious what your thoughts are on the the Minka Fitzpatrick swap, the Jaylen Ramsey coming in. The Steelers believe that they are going to continue adding to their turnover differential to being a turnover producing team by bringing in Jaylen Ramsay for what they deem to be a struggling Minka Fitzpatrick over the past two seasons. Do you believe what that take is is on par with what’s going to happen for the Steelers this year or do you see uh maybe we’re missing something here? No, I I I think that that’s probably accurate. Look, if the if the Pittsburgh Steelers are able to still get some of that pressure up front, which then allows some of the turnover, some of the balls to be thrown into harm’s way in the second half, um that’s going to help their defense get some of those takeaways, which they’re going to need to win the games. I don’t think their offense is going to be good enough. I think if that takeaway margin wasn’t or that those takeaway numbers and the turnover margin wasn’t like it has been the last two years, the Pittsburgh Steelers are going to struggle to win games in 2025. Um, it’s also incumbent upon them to ensure that it happens because last year, by my model, I show the Steelers as having played the 20th most difficult schedule of opposing offenses and the 20th most difficult schedule of opposing quarterbacks, which means obviously easier than average. This year, I am forecasting the Steelers to play the fourth most difficult schedule of opposing offenses and the third most difficult schedule of opposing quarterbacks. In other words, a top five most difficult schedule of opposing quarterbacks who are coming to throw the ball against your defense, whereas last year that was 20th. So, they’re going to have to step things up defensively. Now, I talk a lot about complimentary football, and it means in the way that Arthur Smith and this offense could help the defense out a lot with those takeaways if they were able to build leads a little bit earlier in games. if they weren’t so disastrous on their first drive of the game. If they actually put up points and weren’t the lowest scoring offense in the NFL on first drives, if they actually scored a touchdown at some point during the season on one of their opening drives, were they able to do that, then they could build a lead that then potentially their defense could open up a little bit more in the second half of games. It’s much harder to win games when you’re losing at halftime and your defense is having to defend an offense that could do whatever they want to do. The offense could run the ball. The offense could pass the ball because they’re playing with a lead. It’s far easier to play defense in the second half of a game with a Jaylen Ramsay ball hawking and trying to get those interceptions off of a number one wide receiver. If that opposing quarterback is in known passing situations and it’s very predictable because they are playing at a deficit, the Steelers defense is playing with a lead and now they can start playing a little bit more free. Now they can dial up a little bit more of those pressure packages to confuse the quarterback who is obviously going to be passing the ball and now Jaylen Ramsey and other defensive players can ball hawk a little bit more or take advantage of some of those situations. So, um, I think it’s on the offense to help the defense out a little bit in that regard. I I can’t really tell you if I think the swap is going to help. I know their swap for getting Minka Fitzpatrick in the first place several years ago was just ridiculously dumb to to do that after losing Ben Rothsberger a couple of years into that season. And so, this was like years ago. I thought it was dumb for them to have Minka. Minka though obviously has played really well. last year was a different story. The team and they were having some issues defensively. You guys are aware of those far better than I am. Uh just from reading everything that’s been said and discussed behind the scenes there in Pittsburgh. But I’m I’m it’s hard to really uh measure Minka versus Jaylen and which one is going to make a bigger impact in 2025 for me. But I just know that they could absolutely help this defense as a whole if the offense played a little bit better. So, I’m excited to see what they can do offensively, how they could start games and and see whether or not that’s going to help the team. But unfortunately for you guys, you know, as as we wrap up here, I just want to mention, you know, that schedule that you’re going to come up against later on in the season. You’ve got some manageable games early on, but that schedule later on in the season from week seven onward, I wrote about it in the book, the number one most difficult schedule in terms of who you play, the number three most difficult schedule in terms of the rest. When you play these opponents, they’re tough opponents. But in the Steelers six toughest games based upon how strong the opponent is, you have a rest or scheduling disadvantage in five of those six games, which is not going to be easy to overcome. Against Buffalo, you got a three-day rest disadvantage. Against the Detroit Lions, you’ve got a one-day rest disadvantage. Against Baltimore, you’ve got a three-day rest disadvantage. Against the Bengals, you have one game is a 7-day rest disadvantage. The other game is a short week road game on the road in Cincinnati on a Thursday night football game. In from week 13 to 16, you’re at a rest disadvantage in three out of your four games. So, it’s not going to be an easy schedule. And that’s on top of the brutal opponents that you’re playing. Like you said, the number one most difficult schedule of opponents during that stretch from week seven onward. So, um I I I’ll say this in some I think the Pittsburgh Steelers are better with Aaron Rodgers. Um I I think that the Pittsburgh Steelers um should be a better team in 2025 than they were last year in 2024. Um but they’re going to play a very difficult schedule. And there are things that are within their control that they can do to improve their record if they try to aggressively go out and do it. And some of it is on the offensive side of the football. Some of it relates to Mike Tolman. Some relates to Arthur Smith. some relates to just Aaron Rogers and the way that he’s picking up on this offense and how quickly they can incorporate things that Aaron likes, get rid of some of the things that don’t aren’t working quite as well. Um, but at the end of the day, expecting that you guys can continue to live off of the takeaways and the close game win rates is is very hard to imagine, but it just seems to happen year after year that this is the way that you guys are winning games. Like you said, you go to the press conferences and Mike Tomlin is beating his chest, happy about the fact that they’re winning games ugly like this and uh there is a Yeah, there’s door one might be losing these games. Door two is winning ugly games. There is a door three, Mike. Door three is actually like building a big lead, scoring early, getting up and winning games by 17 points and coasting at the end of the game. It’s it’s pulling Aaron Rodgers on the final drive and letting a backup quarterback come in and kneel the game out. Like that is also an option that could be explored if you so desired. So, um it is going to be interesting to see how you guys end up performing this year. It’s not going to be an easy schedule. No, it definitely is not. I think you just terrified a lot of Steelers fans by saying that the season relies on Mike Tomlin, Arthur Smith, and Aaron Rogers, the three scariest names in Pittsburgh this year. And uh I can tell you firsthand I’ve, you know, I’ve had a lot of uh press conference moments, but also just a lot of like, you know, joking around at training camp or going out to dinner or whatever with with Mike Tomlin in the past. And uh I I don’t think he’ll ever change from the the beating his chest and getting excited about close. If he could pick, Aaron Rogers would never be on the bench in the fourth quarter. It would always be a a two-minute drive to win it. And he just there’s something about it. There’s something about it. Warren, I can’t thank you enough for coming on. Uh, one more time, I I just want you to let everybody know where they can find the book. Um, and obviously where to check you out every single day. Yeah. Head on over. If you want the printed copy, it’s on sale at Amazon. You get a book that looks just like this one. If you want the PDF for just $1, go to sharp. Enter the code Steelers. You grab it for a dollar. Uh, hope you guys enjoy it. Good luck this season. Obviously, it was pleasure talking to you guys about the Steelers here. and um high expectations in Pittsburgh last season with Aaron Rogers. It’s going to be fun. I will say this in closing, I like the fact that Aaron came out and said this was his last season. I don’t know if you guys do or not. Um there is going to be more drama around it and sort of like but for so many years you guys were dealing with like Ben Rothosberger not knowing if he was going to leave or come back and all the wishy-washiness of that situation. Although I think the Steelers needed to make a different move and find a franchise quarterback and should have done so several years ago. If you just forget about that for the time being and just enjoy the 2025 season that will feature a legend of the game in his final run with a new team, it’s going to be mustsee TV. It’s going to be interesting to watch every week. It’s going to be fun to see them out there hopefully winning more games in your guys’ case than than losing. But um I’m going to enjoy watching the season unfold for the Steelers positively or negatively just because we know that like it’s Aaron Rogers Swan song and it’ll be interesting to see how they how they send him out. Yeah. I I mean Ray Lewis to this day I I can’t not picture him as the farewell tour, the farewell well tour champion and that’s where I always go and hopefully and I think I speak for every Steelers fan out there, the Steelers feel uh the same way. Warren, thank you again. Everybody else, go check out the book now and uh we’ll see you guys tomorrow.

NFL expert and analytics guru Warren Sharp joins AST to dive into the Pittsburgh Steelers and how their season looks.

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