I’m including some follow up tweets from the author that will help break things down a little further:

The closer the highlighted number is to 1, the larger the impact that metric has on how many runs a team scores. The closer it is to 0, the smaller the impact.

For example, OPS is quite predictive of how many runs you'll score, but K % is not. Counter-intuitive, but true.

Regarding Avg exit velocity:

In retrospect I should've left avg. exit velo off — it is a PERIPHERAL metric (rather than an events-based one like "walks" or "batting average"), and peripheral metrics will never correlate well with final results like runs, when averaged out across an entire team.

However, if you look at the individual player level, or even down to the batted-ball level, exit velocity correlates TREMENDOUSLY well with whether or not a ball will be a hit (and the SLG of that ball). It was a mistake to include it here I think, it just got left in with the other batted ball metrics and I was like "eh, why not" without thinking too much about it.

All of this is via Andrew Kasper [@KasperStats] on Twitter (he doesn’t have a BlueSky account) and I highly recommend following him if you’re interested in the statistics of baseball.

2 comments
  1. Very interesting that K rate is so low. Thanks for posting this, this is great.

  2. You can’t win games if you don’t score runs.  This team doesn’t score runs so they lose.  A lot.

    We will never spend enough to get 6-7 good hitters at the same time. For unknown reasons this fanbase still thinks defense matters.

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