Cincinnati Reds MAIN REASON to be BUYERS at the Trade Deadline has NOTHING to do with their record

Cincinnati Reds MAIN REASON to be BUYERS at the Trade Deadline has NOTHING to do with their record

There’s one reason that the Cincinnati Reds must be buyers at this MLB trade deadline in some sense of the word, and it has nothing to do with their current record. You are Locked on Red, your daily Cincinnati Reds podcast, part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. Welcome in to the Locked On Reds podcast. Locked on Reds is part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. My name is Stephen Offenbaker. His name is Jeff Carr. We are lifelong Cincinnati Reds fans. We’ve been podcasting about this team for a combined 14 years. We love talking baseball. We love talking Reds and we love talking about those things with you on today’s show. The Cincinnati Reds are seemingly at a crossroads in the season. On one hand, there are reasons, and I have support this, that it might be time to have a conversation about the Reds actually selling towards the deadline versus buying. But there’s one thing that Jeff apparently can’t get out of his mind and that is holding him back from agreeing with me, which usually makes him wrong. So, we’re going to find out what that idea is. He’s going to tell us why and then we’ll dissect it on just how the Reds can attack this trade deadline having now squandered their start of the second half in New York by losing this series to the Washington Nationals. That’s all on today’s episode that is brought to you by Monarch Money. Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code locked on MLB at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. All right, Jeff, you and I were talking off air before we clicked record and I am I am teetering. I am teetering on the brink of seeing the rationale behind the people that want this team to kind of take all of the dudes that are one year, all of the guys that are in their team control trade window and go ahead and sell them off and and really load up and prepare for 2026. I can see that thought process right now given how this team continues to disappoint series after series against teams they should beat. But you’re not quite there yet. No, I’m not. And and there’s one reason why, Steve. It’s because they get three more years of LA de la Cruz after this. Unless things change. Unless the economics of baseball change and there is something like a salary cap and and max contract players like in the NBA and things like that that open up the possibility of the Reds maintaining Elliot Dela Cruz on their roster in perpetuity. There is no reason for me for the Reds to be traditional sellers. Now, traditional sellers are teams that trade major leaguers for minor league prospects. I want to make that clear. That is what we’re talking about when it comes to the distinction of buyers and sellers. I begrudge that there is a world where maybe prudent people look at this and say you actually buy for 2026, you begin the offseason plan for 2026. And heck, who knows? Maybe if you catch lightning in a bottle like the Detroit Tigers did last year that you buy, sell, and you still somehow make the playoffs. But this is not a team. As as much as it’s easy to say that there is a win-loss total, there’s a there’s a number in the games behind column that I will feel comfortable saying that they should be buyers because of the existential feeling around the team that they only have so much longer with their star player. And because of that, it is hard for me to sit here and say, “Yes, go sell those one-year player or those expiring contracts for prospects. Here’s the thing though, Jeff. They’ve got one more game against the Washington Nationals where they are, it was always meant to be. They are trying to avoid the sweep of being swept by the Washington Nationals today um on getaway day there in the nation’s capital. After that, Jeff, they have three games at home against Tampa Bay, followed by three games at home against the Los Angeles Show Otanis, followed by the Atlanta Braves in the Bristol series. Now, the first game of Atlanta, the first game of that Atlanta series is just after the trade deadline. Trade deadline at six o’clock. Reds and Braves go at it at 7:10 at Great American Ballpark on the 31st. So that is 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 eight games. Seven games actually. Seven games remaining before the trade deadline. What do the Reds need to do in those seven games to make you think it is reasonable and viable to go and add right now to try and get this team into the postseason and that you would feel okay with trading away prospects to do it because I’m going to tell you if they don’t win five out of the next seven, maybe even six out of the next seven, I’m ready to trade everybody away with a one-year contract or that’s not willing to excite an extension that’s in their two-year team control window. Reload for 2026. Tell everybody in this front office, uh, this is what we’re doing. This is how we’re doing it. And if this team does not go deep into the playoffs in 2026, everybody from Nick Crawl to the guy that stocks the lockers in the locker room at the end of the 2026 season gets fired. That’s where I’m at with this team. I am sick and tired of average. I am sick and tired of inconsistency. I am sick and tired of wait till next year. I am sick and tired of give them time. I’m done giving them time. If they’re gonna blow it up, blow it up with 2026 being Nick Craw. You will not have a job if we’re not in at least the National League Championship Series. It’s It’s interesting because I don’t have a ton of like analytical perspective on this. Normally I do. Normally I’m looking at some different stats and I’m saying this is pointing to this. We’ve got a trend this way. We’ve got something that’s pointing me up. I’m I have seen my confidence really shattered these last couple of days, which says a lot, right? Because you are Mr. The glass is overflowth most of the time. Yeah. And and this season has I feel like I’ve said that before this season, which probably just speaks to my uh emotionalness, but when it comes to this ball club, it’s hard not to feel that way. Like at some points it seems like they’re dead in the water and then they go on a run that’s completely improbable against really good teams and all of a sudden they’re right back where you hope they’d be and then they go on a run of badness and and it just throws it all back into chaos. If they do what they’ve done all along this season, they’re going to get swept today by the Washington Nationals. Then they’re going to go out and win two of three against Tampa Bay. No, they haven’t been swept yet this year. So then they would win today. You I I’m Listen, they’re going to get swept today. That’s what’s going to happen. They’re going to get swept today. I’m I’m going to win. Looo is going to shut them down. They’re They’re getting swept today and then they’re going to win two of three against Tampa Bay and they’re going to sweep the Dodgers and we’re going to be right back at square one where we always end up at the end of every single week following this team. But I think, hear me out on this, I think Lola wins. And then if you win both those series, if you beat two out of three against the Rays and then you and then you beat the Dodgers, then you there’s absolutely no reason to be buyers for this year. Now, I will begrudge if you not do that. You mean sellers? Buyers for this year. If you win both those series, you win both those series. Okay. Yeah. Yeah. That’s what I’m saying. I will begrudge if you don’t do that. then I will entertain the idea of a buyell strategy. But I do not agree that there is a realm of reality where the Cincinnati Reds should be a traditional seller. Now a traditional seller also means that there is some rebuild in your motives. There are multiple players that you’re getting rid of. The Reds are just looking to get rid of expiring contracts and maybe listening to offers on guys like Tyler Stevenson and Gavin Lux because of their one plus years of team control. But I don’t necessarily think that the Reds have to do this because they are in a super frustrating position that is okay. Maybe this year isn’t so bad or isn’t so good and as good as we hoped and we’re not going to make the playoffs, but next year will be. And it feels like we’ve said that a lot in our lifetimes and I’m really tired of saying that and I really don’t want to get to that point. That’s where my mind Dallas Cowboys fans around here. We are because it’s just it’s it’s oh man, next year man next year the pitching staff, man, it’s going to be so healthy. Oh my gosh. And then and then you know and listen Jeeoff, I want to continue this conversation. So let’s do this. Let’s let’s get it to let’s get a break and when we come back we’re going to talk about specifically what I see as the red selling for 2026. We’ll talk about what that looks like coming up next. You ever wish monitoring your money was easier? Well, with Monarch Money, it is. 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That’s half off your first year of making wealth happen over at monarchmoney.com with the promo code locked on MLB. Make sure you’re subscribed that way you don’t miss any of the great reds content we’ve got coming for you. That includes Jeff and I here Monday through Friday on the Locked on Reds podcast. Uh, with that subscribe click, you’re also going to get Tim Daniel live after each and every Red’s game with the Reds post, plus any breaking news, uh, emergency podcasts, the Reds did something, they didn’t do something, something cool happened, you’ll get all those as well. So, make sure you click those subscribe and notification bells today. All right, Jeeoff, let’s let’s continue this conversation because when I say I’m ready to have the cell conversation, I think you’re right that I need to different differentiate between blowing it up rebuild and a sell now for an all-in in 2026. It would have to look like this for me. You would you would shop Gavin Lux, you would shop Nick Martinez, you would shop Austin Hayes, you would shop Tyler Stevenson. Everybody settle down. He’s in the window of not having much team control left and wasn’t interested. The Rays model, right? Right. The Rays model and he wasn’t interested in an extension conversation based on whatever numbers it was that the Reds were presenting. So, he’s already rejected an overture. So, I would shop him at this point because a as unpopular as that is in Cincinnati and as anti- Cincinnati as that is, if this is going to work, this this model that the Red’s front office has pitched, we can’t do that thing we do in Cincinnati, which is get attached to every single person that puts on a Red’s uniform. We can’t do that anymore. So, those guys get shopped, Jeff. um any of the bullpin arms that could get you a little something in return. Shop them because the idea would be then you’re trading for guys that maybe aren’t quite ready for prime time but that should be major leaguers next season. You’re using the off season to go sign a guy or two to fill wherever your gaps are. And then you’re counting on your pitching being healthy again, right? Hunter Green will be back. Rhett Lauder will be back. Brandon Williamson will be back. Uh Chase Burns will have a year under his belt. Andrew Abbott continues to deal. You got a lot of pitching. This team could be constructed for 2026. Now, I meant what I said there in the last segment, though. I would put everybody in this organization that draws a paycheck on notice that if this team doesn’t get deep into the postseason in 2026, after you do that, after you trade away, after you go out and go all in, you push all your chips to the middle of the table, anybody that’s getting a paycheck right now should get should be fired. Start over from a front office standpoint. re new GM, new baseball operations, new everybody. Uh we can’t fire the Castellinis. I’ve tried. I’ve been told that’s not legal. So, we can’t do that. But everybody else should go and and try again because this is the window. The time is now. Three years of LA de la Cruz, they’ve already squandered a couple. You get to 2026, you build around him for a run, and you you tell this team, “Let’s go.” You tell Tito Francona, “This is why you’re here. Here is your team. Get this team to the postseason.” That’s what I would do. I like it. I I I definitely think that it’s it’s got to be moves that help out next year’s ball club, not moves that help out 2028, 2029 year’s ball club. We’re not talking about, you know, guys. Yeah. Get out of here with the number one prospect from trip from single A. We’re not talking about that guy. Like like I I love talking about the minor leagues and I love looking at the future of players, but there is a reality to it that is very stingy about how good those guys can be. Just see the most recent news in Red’s minor leagues that they released Matt Nelson, a a compensatory first round pick from a couple of years ago, one of the guys we had on the list of like future catchers. Never really panned out. never really made it above DoubleA Chhattanooga. But again, he was a compensatory first round pick, the number 35 draft pick in that year. So, it it it’s really hard for me to say, yeah, go ahead and trade Nick Martinez for some guy we won’t see for three years. Like, if the Reds are trading Nick Martinez, and I even say the expiring contracts, if they’re making those moves, it’s got to be for difference makers next year. They’ve got to have the same eye that they had in 2019 or money to buy a difference maker in the offseason. Okay, I I can handle that. Like, yes, if you’re if you’re getting rid of some contract money for Nick Martinez or somebody like that and you’re reinvesting that, that’s good. But we we’re coming up now, Steve. we have hit the window because I think that we were all spoiled in 2023 where we were using the moniker of ahead of schedule and then they weren’t because they didn’t make the postseason and then they had, you know, they didn’t do anything last year and now here we are on the brink of not making the playoffs yet again. We are in that time frame that we were all looking at and saying that is what they’re pointing to. They are pointing to 2025, 2026, something like that. 2024 in some cases what we looked at and they hired Terry Franona signaling that they believe they were there. And if you’re doing that and now you’re hitting the reset button again in some even if it’s a soft reset and you trade guys like Stevenson and Lux for prospects, then you’re going to have a really hard time selling that to me, let alone the casual Reds fan out there that’s just like, “Where’s the plan? Where are you guys going with this? Because I get it. I understand that the moniker was get rid of the peaks and valleys. Well, I’m starting to see what happens when you get rid of peaks and valleys, Steve. You’re a 500 ball club that doesn’t go anywhere and you never have any peaks. And you never have any I would take a peak season, Steve. I would take a peak season. If If you told me that the Reds got deep into the playoffs and then they would go quiet for a couple of years, man, I’d have a lot of fun that playoff run. And I haven’t had that much fun as a Reds fan in a long, long time. And in fact, they’ve never made a deep run while I’ve been old enough to understand baseball. So that just kind of feels like a pipe dream to me at this point. I That’s why I have a hard time sitting here saying that the Reds don’t need to add for this year. Unless they just go on some crazy negative run these next seven games, I think I’m just going to be in wait and see mode. Now, I’m definitely not for standing pat. There’s no world of there’s no there’s no argument for standing pat. It’s either buying or selling. You’re either moving somebody or adding somebody. I get that. So, you’re not cool if Nick Crawl walks to a microphone and says something like, “We like our team. We’re uh we’re just we’re just trying to get healthy.” So So, congrats, Nick. we’re going to win 84 ball games. Like, we’re not going to get there. It’s just not going to happen. Like, it’s got to be some moves. Nick Crawl has never in his tenure built. He has always torn down. He’s got to stop doing that. I got to see if Nick Crawl knows how to build. So, given what’s happened in Washington with the Nationals, let me ask you this. Has your opinion changed at all about this team as a buyer, what that would look like? Is your opinion still go get a a bat, go get a bullpin arm, and then maybe if you can look for an extra third piece, but still do those two things. Are you still are is that still where you’re locked in even with what’s happened in Washington? Yes. Because I think too, like I imagine adding and I’m not even gonna say Auano Suarez. Imagine adding a really solid bat like a Raone Lauraniano from the Baltimore Orioles right now and how that would look because we’re talking about a guy that’s had a really nice year on a slash line. He’s hit some home runs. Like just putting that dude where you were seeing at bats from guys like Jake Frilley or, you know, Gavin Lux wouldn’t have to play in the outfield. he could be a little bit more of the infield super utility guy. Things like that. Like I I really want to see this team with a proper roster and not constantly moving guys out of position just to get them into the lineup and then all of a sudden they’ve all got the same profile right now, Steve. They are a really good good piece of hitting guys. There is nobody that is striking fear into the opposing pitcher right now. And they and and Raone Lauriano doesn’t do that. But I just I’m to the point like it feels like they need to supplement this roster and they’re not doing it. And for them to sit on their hands or for them to trade guys away for prospects this year, that just doesn’t interest me. I I really would like to see them get a bat to put behind Ellie because I never ever want to see again three intentional walks in a game for Ellie de la Cruz. That was just ridiculous. Um I was at that game, it ticked me off. Um I don’t want to see that anymore. And the only way to prevent that is to get a bopper behind him. And the Reds I I mean, you know, there’s people with the threat of power. There are no boppers right now. And what they need to do is go get a bopper. A guy that every single time he steps into the box, the opposing pitcher is going to think, “My god, I hope he doesn’t hit it into the stands.” That’s the guy they they lack right now. And at this point, Jeff, I really don’t care what position he plays. If you can get me a power bat, they can move everybody else around. Everybody else is flexible enough they can find a way to shoehorn a dude in that hits for power no matter what position he plays. You know, we’ve seen a guy I’m curious as to your thoughts on this. We’ve seen a guy these last couple of days in Washington because Josh Bell might be an interesting guy who won’t cost as much as an Auano Suarez. Should the Reds look at him? We’ll discuss that and an interesting example that the Reds could draw upon for late season inspiration coming up next. If you’re running a business, you know that every missed call is money left on the table. Think about the last time you had a service emergency, like a burst pipe. Uh if the first plumber didn’t answer, did you wait around? No, you called the next guy right away. That’s why having a reliable business line is so important. And that’s why you need Open Phone. Open Phone is the number one business phone system that helps you streamline and scale customer communication all from an app on your phone or computer. Do you juggle two phones to keep business and personal calls separate? Open Phone solves that instantly by having the app on your phone. Uh your whole team can share one number and respond to customers like a shared inbox. No more uh who is handling this. Uh, Open Phone is offering LockedOn Red’s listeners 20% off their first six months at openphone.comlockedonmlb. That’s openphone.comlockedonmlb. And if you have an existing number with another service, open phone will port them over at no extra charge. Open. No missed calls, no miss customers. If you can’t watch us on YouTube, you can always listen to us on your favorite podcast app. We’re on all of them out there. Go check us out today. And when you’re done watching today’s Lockdown Reds podcast, make sure you go check out Locked on MLB game night over in the Locked On MLB feed. They watch every game every night so that you don’t have to. All right, Steve. Uh, two things here to close out the show. I mean, this has been an interesting one because quite frankly, it’s not been a show that I felt super confident about and I thought about this all while watching the debacle that was uh Tuesday night’s ball game. But I I just I I’ve I’ve I’ve had this thought as the Reds have played the Nationals the last couple of days that he’s not the sexiest trade candidate. He’s not the guy that everybody’s pining for. He’s not going to cost I I don’t think a whole lot, but Josh Bell has absolutely murdered Red’s pitching these last two days. And I don’t necessarily know that he’s the best candidate to be a number four guy, but I think he would be a big bopper. Oh, if you can’t, you know, if you can’t beat him, sign him, right? Is that’s the thing. Here’s the thing with Josh Bell, though. He’s wildly inconsistent. And if you go back uh to his 20, go back to 2022, um you know, he’s played for multiple teams in multiple seasons, but in 2022, he had a war of 2.9. And if you expand that out from that 2.9 war in 2022 and bring it to through today, um that war has dwindled down to 1.7. Uh he’s just it’s going down and down and down and down. you look at his OPS plus um it’s a roller coaster, Jeff, again back to that that 2.9 season where he was 27% better than league average in 2022. Uh you look at his 2023. Now he’s down to 101, so just 1% better than league average. Now, he did have a bit of a bounce in Miami in 2023 where he was 14% better than league average, but you know, overall still just 1% for that season. And then in 2024, you you look at his numbers again, multiple teams, you know, his OPS plus is now down to 100. So now down to league average. And then this season, he’s at 99 below league average. All of his trends are down. His war is going down. His OPS plus is going down. His home run totals are going down. Um I I don’t know, Jeff. I mean, probably scraping the barrel then. This would this would feel like uh this to me would feel like one of those moves that I say I hate which is look I did something to say that look I did something. Um this doesn’t really address the need. This is going and saying we got somebody so we can say and have a press conference Candelario we added Yeah. I would much rather whatever resources they were going to put into pulling this off. Go get a platoon guy for the outfield um that you can pair up with Freillley or whatever. Um, I I would much rather them do that than than a look what I did move because this this would really be like a name that everybody recognizes. However, when you really dig into the numbers, it doesn’t quite warrant any fanfare kind of thing, right? No. No, and that makes sense actually because like I was thinking of him. I’m like I I understand that he’s probably like all power and then everything else is just kind of fine to maybe below average. But even if the power is kind of dipping too, but that would be he’s slugging 383 right now, Jeff. Like Okay, never mind. Yeah. Like, but no, I I think that that would be the thing that they I could see Nick Crawl and Brad Meet getting up on the microphone and say, “Well, you see how he hit against us. Obviously, he’s a good power hitter and everybody’s been wanting a good power hitter and so we got us a a good power hitter.” But no, I I’m I’m with you. I It was just a thought that I had that I definitely wanted to dissect there. But there’s one other thing, too. Kind of getting back to where the Reds are right now. what’s going to happen in the next week plus uh you know the next eight days as it were leading up to the trade deadline. How are the Reds going to attack this and everything? I food for thought. July 31st last year, the Detroit Tigers had a record of 52 and 57 and they had just traded one of their better starting pitchers, a guy that was having a bit of a comeback year in Jack Flity. They just traded him to Baltimore. So, they actually sold and I don’t remember what they got back in that trade, but I don’t think it was a major league. Um, but when it came to how the do how the Tigers attacked the trade deadline, they didn’t go too crazy. They did a little bit of selling, but they kept the core intact. They kept the most of the team intact. You could argue that they really didn’t do very much as far as selling is concerned, but the fact that they were under 500 at the trade deadline last year and they made the wild card is something that at least Tito can draw on with this team because the Reds are not under 500, at least not yet. Knock on wood. uh they are not as in the same spot as the Tigers were back then and they’ve got the same opportunities as the Tigers in that this third wild card thing just keeps everything super open for teams that are teetering on you know will they or won’t they on the knife’s edge of getting to the playoffs. I think there’s plenty of examples with the Tigers being the most recent one for the Reds to just be like yeah look we don’t have to pack it up right now. We don’t have to hang it up right now. And in fact, maybe even if we do add somebody, we could do what the Tigers did last year and come from behind where everybody’s not expecting us and then end up in the playoffs. It could happen. I mean, it’s, you know, you’re telling me there’s a chance, right? Like, you’re you’re telling me there’s a chance. But I I mean, I look at up and down, Jeff, and I’m just like, I would keep Trevvinho. I would keep Steer. I would keep Mlan. I would keep Dea Cruz. I would keep Marte. That’s it. Those are the guys that I wouldn’t entertain trading right now. Everybody else I would entertain trading. Um, from the position player side of things and the pitcher side of things, I keep Lolo. I keep Abbott. I keep Green Burns. I think Chase Burns. I think that’s it. everybody else. Fair game build for 2026. I mean, I I I just I mean, looking at it, looking at it up and down, there’s your there’s your core of hitters that you reload around for 2026. There’s your starting rotation that you build them a brand new bullpen heading into 2026. And you tell Nick Crawl you’re fired if you don’t make the National League Championship Series. Get your resume in order. I would even be okay just making the division series. take it to the next no no that is the that is the mediocre I want to make the playoffs if they do this if they do this plan I’m talking about right now are if they do this plan that I’m talking about right now nothing short of the National League championship is a success I tell you every year that a successful season only one team in baseball has a successful season every year and that’s the guys that hoist the trophy at the end and everybody else failed I want this team to be freaking successful. And that means winning a World Series. So, if they’re going to do this, if they’re going to quasi blow it up in order to be ready to go day one on 2026, there needs to be some repercussions if they’re not successful because that’s the other piece. I was promised accountability by Tito. I was promised accountability. I want accountability. And that starts with heads rolling if this team doesn’t make a deep playoff run while Ellie de la Cruz is here because it’s criminal if they don’t. Maybe there’s some sort of behind the-scenes accountability going on with Will Benson because he’s had exactly three plate appearances in the last 10 days. Actually, now last 11 days. It’s kind of crazy to see, but I I I think maybe they’ve just marked it. And they’re just like, “Look, we’ve got to improve. This is an area we’ve got to improve, and maybe we’re just going to improve via outside means, and maybe Gavin Lux is going to be the left-handed platoon in the corner outfield.” And then Jake Freley on the other side as well. I I don’t know, Steve. I’m at a loss. I I I really think that they’ve broken me because I feel like there’s they’re right there. And And yes, these last two losses just really have brought out all of the boobirds and all of the negativity. And it’s obvious to so many negative people that this team is horrible, which they’re not. They’re just mediocre, which might even be worse than horrible. I’m not I’m not The good news The good news is is that if if Locked on Reds remains consistent, which we usually are, they’re going to win the next eight games now because I’ve said all the things that I’ve said. That’s what’s going to happen. So, if they do that, you all are welcome. And I’m obviously not advocate. I don’t like the plan of blowing it up. I don’t necessar But the Reds need to get creative. We said that this past offseason they didn’t get very creative. If they’re not going to sign free agents, which they don’t do, then they’ve got to make creative trades. Nick Carl’s got eight days to do it and then there’s going to be this really long break for a couple of months and then he’ll be able to do it again this off seasonason. But really hope that we see some prudent moves moving forward and that is where we will end prudently today’s Lockdown Reds podcast. Thank you so much for checking out the show. Make sure that you’re subscribed and become an everydayer if you’re not and already an everydayer. Appreciate you if you are. You guys are so awesome and I definitely seeing all of the all of the uh consternation of our everydayers and the consternation of Reds fans as a whole. Hopefully we will not be as concerned on tomorrow’s podcast. Until then, you know that you can get Tim Daniel on the postcast live at the end of every ball game and you can check out locked on MLB game night where they watch every game every night so that you don’t have to. But you know that Steve and I will be locked on reds every single day. Oh, the comment section is going to be fire. I already feel the burn.

The Cincinnati Reds face a crucial decision at the MLB trade deadline. Should they buy or sell? Jeff Carr and Steven Offenbaker dissect the team’s inconsistent performance and playoff chances. The hosts debate building for 2026 success or searching for 2025 help, emphasizing accountability in the front office. They explore potential trade targets like Ramón Laureano and Josh Bell, weighing the impact on the lineup and long-term strategy. Will Benson’s reduced playing time and the need for a power hitter to protect Elly De La Cruz are also discussed. Get the inside scoop on the Reds’ trade deadline strategy and future plans – listen now!

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Gameday Hue
Let your colors talk—because colors speak louder than words. Right now, you can get 15% off with code MLB15 at GamedayHue.com.

Monarch Money
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Gametime
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FanDuel
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