The HUGE Golden State Warriors Trade is Almost Here

The HUGE Golden State Warriors Trade is Almost Here

Jonathan Kuminga is playing the best basketball his career. They’ve boosted his playing time by about eight minutes a game over the last 10 games. He’s pretty much untouchable right now. I think it’s like it’s like like Steph and Kuminga and then everything else. He’s not accepting their current offers. He added that he wants to continue to explore options with his agent, whether that’s continuing conversations with the Warriors, but also sign and trade options that are available to him in the marketplace. So, today we’re going to dive into one of the most fascinating contract standoffs in the NBA. one that ESPN’s Brian Winhorse called the most important player situation to watch in the league right now. And we’re talking about Jonathan Kaminga and the Golden State Warriors that are locked in what Shams literally described as a staring contest that has the entire Warriors off season essentially on pause. This isn’t just about money, though. Although the $5 million gap between what Kaminga wants, which is $35 million per year, and what the Warriors are offering, which is $30 million a year, could cost them a future Allstar. This is about a 22-year-old who averaged 24 points in the playoffs when Steph Curry got hurt, then got completely benched in elimination games. This is about a player who literally told the Athletic he had lost faith in Steve Kerr developing him. And this is about Joe Lake facing the same decision that cost the OKC Thunder three MVP candidates when they cheaped out on James Harden. So, before we get to the content, I think my lighting’s a little bit better here, but obviously this isn’t my usual setup. I’m currently in Budapest right now and I’m doing my best to make sure you guys are up to date with all the latest NBA offseason news. If you guys want to see what I’m up to, you can follow me on Instagram or Snapchat in the description down below. And now that we got all that out of the way, cue the intro [Music] [Music] Mic check 1212. What’s going on everybody? So the Jonathan Kaminga situation just got very very spicy. Shams Chirana broke all of NBA Twitter when he came out with this video just the other day. The Warriors entire offseason has been essentially on pause for one player and that’s the restricted free agent Jonathan Kaminga. And they have wanted to figure out his situation before making their other offseason moves. And so I saw Jonathan Kaminga this morning. He’s in good spirits. He had a good workout. He did tell me though that he is in absolutely no rush on doing a deal with the Warriors right now. And he’s not accepting their current offers. He added that he wants to continue to explore options with his agent, whether that’s continuing conversations with the Warriors, but also sign and trade options that are available to him in the marketplace. So let’s start with the numbers that have both sides refusing to blink. In the past, prior to this CBA, it would be a foregone conclusion that once a player that even shows the slightest bit of potential is coming off of a rookie scale contract, you would automatically max him out. It wouldn’t matter if it was Andrew Wiggins or even Ben Simmons. Every single rookie that has flashed potential would automatically get a max contract. But the new CBA changes everything because if you make one wrong decision, if you give away one bad max contract, it cripples your ability to be competitive. According to multiple reports from ESPN and The Athletic, when the October 21st extension deadline passed, the Warriors and Kaminga were approximately $5 million apart annually. Kaminga’s camp was seeking around $35 million per year, which would make him the second highest paid Golden State Warrior behind only Steph Curry’s 59.6 million. and the Warriors maxed out at $30 million. Ryan Windhorst revealed on ESPN that negotiations were never close. Think about that. They were never close. Not they almost had a deal, not last minute breakdown. They were not even in the same ballpark, which is kind of crazy cuz about a year and a half ago, Brian Winhorse was saying this about Kaminga. Jonathan Kaminga is playing the best basketball his career. They’ve boosted his playing time by about 8 minutes a game over the last 10 games. He’s pretty much untouchable right now. I think it’s like it’s like like Steph and Kuminga and then everything else. So, how did everything change? Jonathan Kaminga wanted to be paid like Scotty Barnes, Kate Cunningham, and Evan Mobley. All of whom got 5-year, $224 million max contract extensions. Even Jaylen Johnson, who was picked 13 spots after Jonathan Kaminga, got $150 million from Atlanta. Meanwhile, the Warriors gave Moses Moody a role player, a three-year, $39 million extension right before the deadline, but wouldn’t budge for Jonathan Kaminga. Bobby Marks from ESPN laid out the financial reality. If Jonathan Kaminga doesn’t accept the Warriors offer, he’s looking at a $7.9 million qualifying offer for next season. But this isn’t just about money. If you guys remember, this all started on January of 2024. This night changed everything between the Golden State Warriors and Jonathan Kaminga. The Warriors are playing the Denver Nuggets and Jonathan Kaminga is having the game of his life. He had 16 points on five of seven shooting, four rebounds, and four assists. He was leading the team with a plus six plus minus. And then Steve Kerr benched him for the final 18 minutes of the game. The craziest part is the Golden State Warriors would go on to lose this game and what happened next sent shock waves through the organization. Shams and Anthony Slater dropped a bomb on The Athletic where Jonathan Kaminga said that he lost faith in Steve Kerr and no longer believes Kerr will allow him to reach his full potential in Golden State. But it gets even deeper. On Christmas Day just days before, Kaminga told Marcus Thompson that sometimes I come out of the game not knowing what I did and that messes with my head. It’s like what do they want me to do? I can pass and I could do different stuff. Even Steph Curry had to intervene. Before their next game against Detroit, Curry met with Kaminga and publicly backed him. He’s not wrong in being upset and pissed off. Um, wanting to play, probably should have played probably. Now, Steve Kerr joked it off saying, “I played 15 years and all 15, I was frustrated with my playing time.” But this wasn’t a laughing matter. Within 20 hours, Kerr and Kaminga had a face-to-face meeting where Kaminga claimed there was no beef and that he never complained about playing time. But the damage was already done. And things would get a little bit weirder from here on out. Fast forward a year later to February of 2025 and the Golden State Warriors made their next big move. They traded Andrew Wiggins, Dennis Shruder, Kyle Anderson in the first round pick for Jimmy Butler. On paper, it looked like a team that was going for their last dance to win a championship. In reality, it might have sealed Jonathan Kaminga’s fate. And Steve Kerr’s recent admission on this is brutal. Right now, he is a ball dominant player. 92nd percentile in usage rate this year in the NBA. That’s really high on a team with Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler. I mean, honestly, Steph’s going to have the ball. Jimmy’s going to have the ball. And so, the fit is tricky. So, listen to what else Steve Kerr said. He’s not a guy who I can say, “I’m going to play 38 minutes with the roster that we have. Steph and Jimmy and Draymond and put the puzzle together that way and expect to win.” The numbers back this up. in 120 minutes with Jimmy Butler on the court. The Warriors were minus30 when Jonathan Kaminga shared the court with Jimmy. That’s catastrophic. And Steve Curry even admitted that lineups with Jimmy, Jonathan, and Draymond don’t fit well together. But here’s where it gets really confusing. If you just went to basketball reference and looked at Jonathan Kaminga’s regular season production, it wouldn’t necessarily scream max contract player. Let’s break down Kaminga’s actual production. In 2024 to 25 last year, he’s averaging 15.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game. His shooting has regressed down to 45.4% from the field, and a rough 30.5% from three. His true shooting percentage sits at 55.1%, which is only 42nd percentile in the entire NBA. But here’s where it gets really interesting, and this is Jonathan Kaminga’s argument for a max contract. When the Warriors needed him the most when Steph Curry got hurt in the playoffs against Minnesota, Kaminga exploded. Over games two through five, he averaged 24.3 points on 55.4% shooting from the field. Game three, 30 points, six rebounds, three assists, two blocks. That’s all-star level production when the lights are the brightest and you need a player the most. Jonathan Kaminga didn’t fold like Ben Simmons in the 2021 Eastern Conference semi-finals. He stepped up when the Warriors needed him the most and proved to them that he could be a superstar if you gave him a chance. Now, the advanced metrics also tell a complex story. He’s 92nd percentile in usage rate and free throw rate, which means he’s a lead at getting to the rim and drawing fouls, but he’s also 19th percentile in three-point attempt rate and has consistency issues. Now, you compare that to the Jaylen Johnson extension, which is five years and $150 million when he was averaging 16 points and 8.7 rebounds per game, or Jaylen Williams, who just got a max deal, averaging 21.6 points per game with all NBA and all defense honors. And Jonathan Kaminga is somewhere in between. He’s not quite max worthy based on current production, but he definitely has all-star potential. And this is where it gets really interesting because if you have such a player that could become an all-star, but you can’t really play that player as much as you should and this player is demanding max contract money, then you should trade him. And here’s where it gets really interesting. Teams are trying to trade for Jonathan Kaminga. According to Brett Seagull, the Kings have offered Devin Carter, Daario Sarich, and a protective firstround pick for Jonathan Kaminga. But the Warriors have zero interest in this package and are only interested in Keegan Murray or Keon Ellis from Sacramento. They also want nothing to do with Malik Monk’s contract. This is fascinating because it shows just how picky the Warriors are being. Carter was the 13th pick in the 2024 NBA draft. He’s a lottery talent, but the Golden State doesn’t really see him as a player that’s worth Jonathan Kaminga’s value. Meanwhile, Anthony Slater just reported that even as the Kaminga situation drags on, the Warriors are actively pursuing Seth Curry and DeAnthony Melton in free agency. Translation is they’re preparing for life without Jonathan Kaminga. Now, here are the teams that are the most likely to trade for Kaminga. The Sacramento Kings have already offered Devin Carter, Dario Sarich, and a protected first, but the Warriors want Keegan Murray and Keon Alice instead. The Washington Wizards would be a dream scenario for Kaminga because he could be the focal point of an upandcoming offense in a relatively weak conference. The Miami Heat need wing depth after losing Jimmy Butler to the Golden State Warriors. The Chicago Bulls were in discussions, but they hurt their chances when they traded Lonzo Ball to the Cleveland Cavaliers. They don’t really have assets that they could give up for Kaminga. The Brooklyn Nets are the only team with significant cap space, so I’m going to throw them in every single trade rumor that involves a young upandcoming all-star. And the Phoenix Suns made concrete offers per shams, but they don’t have first round picks. I think the only team here that makes sense would be the Brooklyn Nets. They’re the only team that could offer Kaminga a massive contract that would make the Golden State Warriors squirm according to reports. Imagine Kaminga on a young Nets team with Cam Thomas, building something fresh in Brooklyn. But of course, it wouldn’t be a Golden State Warriors video if we didn’t speculate on a potential crazy blockbuster trade. And here’s where it gets really crazy. Brian Windhorse reported in December that the Warriors are sniffing around to make a star player transaction and are making their final analysis on whether to keep or trade Kaminga. Now, obviously, this happened before the Jimmy Butler trade. And the dream scenario that’s been floated is one that you’re very familiar with. There is a world in which Giannis says, “I want to be a part of this team.” Yes, there is a package that the Warriors could use. They have some future draft picks, but they can’t win a bidding war. If we do reach that point where Giannis would want to look around, he will have agency in this. He has two years left on his contract. The Bucks don’t have to listen to him. If he were to come to Milwaukee and say, “I want to play with Steph.” There could be a deal worth Wendy said that the Warriors have the trade package needed if Giannis ever demanded out. A package centered around Kaminga, Brandon Pazki, Moses Moody, and multiple first round picks could be the foundation. Now, a lot of people are saying, “Mike, Giannis is never going to demand out.” But take a look at the Milwaukee Bucks roster. They wave and stretched Damen Lillard over the next 5 years. Yeah, they signed Miles Turner, but take a look at the rest of the Bucks roster. It’s a meme for crying out loud. I mean, you have Giannis Anetta Kmpo, Cole Anthony, AJ Green, Gary Harris, Andre Jackson, Kyle Kosma, Chris Livingston, Bobby Poris, Torian Prince, Kevin Porter Jr., Gary Trent, Miles Turner, Jericho Sims. I mean, Bucks fans, do you really expect this team to be competitive throughout the season with Doc Rivers as your head coach? I’m not saying that Giannis is demanding a trade right now. I’m saying I wouldn’t be surprised if he does demand a trade at some point in the regular season. And given the fact that the Bucks have no assets at all whatsoever, it would be bizarre not to trade Giannis to whoever he wants to go if they could get a good return on him to actually start a rebuild. But say Giannis doesn’t happen. While maybe the Warriors pursue Joel Embiid, the Warriors can send Kaminga, Padmski, Moses Moody, and two first round picks. But Embiid doesn’t really fit the roster, and he’s an injuryprone superstar. But what if the Warriors don’t do any of that? What if they just let Jonathan Kamingo walk? Here’s the brutal financial reality. The Warriors already have $130 million committed to Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green for the 2025 to 26 season. They’re staring at another massive luxury tax bill after paying over $500 million in taxes over 6 years. Joe Leob has even said on the TK show that our plan 1A is that we’d like to be out of the tax. We need to be out of the tax for 2 years out of the next four in order to get this repeater tax thing off of our books. But wait, when asked specifically about paying Kaminga, Leup said, “Absolutely, 100%.” Are you kidding me? I love that guy. We love him. So, which is it? Because you can’t dodge the luxury tax and pay Jonathan Kaminga 30 plus million dollars annually. And the one parallel here that applies the most is something that we saw in 2012. The Oklahoma City Thunder had three future MVPs on their roster. Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden. They just made the NBA Finals and the future was bright. And then came contract time. Harden wanted a max deal. And the Thunder offered four years and $55.5 million. That’s about $4.5 million per year less than the max. Sound familiar? This is just like Jonathan Kaminga and the Warriors being 5 million apart. OKC’s ownership was so worried about the luxury tax that they traded Harden to Houston for Jeremy Lamb, Kevin Martin, and draft picks. Harden immediately signed for 5 years and $80 million and would eventually become an MVP. And the Thunder never made the finals again with this core. The parallels are scary. It’s a championship contender trying to keep young talent. It’s a small gap in contract negotiations. It’s ownership being concerned about the luxury tax. And it’s a young player betting on himself. But in the Warriors case, I don’t necessarily fault them for being so concerned with the luxury tax considering the fact that they paid a lot of luxury tax. And they were a dynasty over the past decade. So what happens next? Well, the first scenario is Jonathan Kaminga takes the $7.9 million qualifying offer. plays out next season and this gives them a right to be an unrestricted free agent in 2026. You never see this happen. You never see players bet on themselves in such a way. Jonathan Kaminga could potentially walk for nothing. The Warriors would have one year to repair the relationship or risk losing him completely. The next option is a sign and trade. Sacramento or Washington makes an offer that the Warriors can’t refuse. A promising young player plus a firstround pick. Kaminga gets his money and a bigger role elsewhere. The Warriors get assets back and everyone saves face. And the final scenario is probably the least likely scenario and that’s the Golden State Warriors caving. If Kaminga starts next season hot and shows all-star potential, the Warriors might panic and offer him the full max to keep him. But with their luxury tax situation and Butler’s presence, this seems the least likely. As I’m recording this, Shams reported that Kaminga is in absolutely no rush to sign with the Warriors after working out in Miami. He’s got until October 1st before that qualifying offer expires. The Warriors are trying to thread an impossible needle, which is keep their future without breaking the bank, develop youth while chasing championships, and manage egos in a locker room with a salary cap bill that’s going to potentially exceed the luxury tax. But in my opinion, the Warriors are about to repeat what OKC did with James Harden. They’re choosing short-term financial flexibility over long-term dynasty building. When Kaminga is averaging 25 and eight for the Nets or Kings in two years and the Warriors are struggling to find athletic wings around an aging core, remember this moment. The gap is just $5 million per year. That’s the difference between keeping a potential all-star and watching him thrive elsewhere in a league where one player can change everything. The Warriors are playing a dangerous game. Steve Kerr admitted after the season that I just hate the way it ended for Jordan here about the Jordan pool situation. My prediction in 2 years he’ll be saying the same thing about Jonathan Kaminga. The dynasty isn’t over yet, but the cracks are showing. And those cracks might be exactly $5 million wide. But if you’re a Warriors fan, let me know in the comments section down below how do you think this situation’s going to end. Aside from that, I’m your boy Mike and I’m dropping our mic until our next upload.

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