Are the 25-26 San Jose Sharks Tanking?

Are the 25-26 San Jose Sharks Tanking?

Class is now in session. I’m Professor Hockey and today we’ll be discussing the question, are the 2526 San Jose Sharks tanking? I’ve made this type of video for each of the last few seasons and here we are yet again. Despite the fact that the Sharks did make a bunch of moves this off season, most of them are done just trying to hit the salary cap floor and none were such a massive swing that gets you really excited about the Shark chances heading into next season. And so we must ask, are the Sharks tanking yet again? Well, it depends on your definition of the word tanking. From one perspective, someone might believe that if the team is going to be finishing bottom five or bottom three even in the league, then that would say that they are tanking. And in that case, perhaps the Sharks do fit that description. Last year, the Sharks finished with 52 points. That was nine points below the Chicago Blackhawks for 31st. I believe 16 points behind the Nashville Predators for 30th. And so in a world where the Sharks actually leapfrog a bunch of different teams here to finish, you know, like sixth or seventh last, they wouldn’t need just a five or 10 point jump, they would need closer to like a 20 to 25 point jump to make it happen. But it is made even more difficult by the fact that the vast majority of teams in the NHL going into this next season are at the very least looking to make like a slight improvement, if not a significant jump up in terms of performance. Really, only the Pittsburgh Penguins right now are planning to have a step backwards. Now, other teams may join them. Perhaps we’ll get to December or January and certain organizations will accept the real reality of their situation like Boston or the New York Rangers and begin to sell off their rosters and plummet in the standings and that could help out San Jose’s uh position. However, right now, as we go into this next season, really only Pittsburgh is planning for this type of spot. So, for the Sharks to actually manage to finish outside of the bottom five, it would need to be a really, really big jump up. And so in that case, maybe you could argue that they are tanking. However, I take a different perspective here. To me, to say that the Sharks are tanking would mean that this needs to be a worse team than what they were last year. That needs to be the big thing. And we’re not going to just be comparing it to the end of last season when the Sharks had traded away a bunch of players and had a bunch of injuries, but actually the beginning of last season when they still had Granland and Zetherland and Walman and Blackwood, all these players that were on that roster and still contributed to the Sharks finishing dead last. So, we’ll take the lineup that they had for game one of last season, compare it to the rough estimation of what I think they could get go into next year with, and we’ll start off with a head-to-head comparison here. The top line does remain the same. Ekkin, Celibbrin, and DeFoley. Whether or not they actually run with this as their top trio is kind of irrelevant for this video. It’s mostly just to make this comparison easier. When it comes to Tyler Defoley, I wouldn’t expect him to drop off too much or to get any better. He scored 30 goals this past season. I think that is fair to say that he could put up something close to that still. You know, 25 to 30 goals. The only worry here is that as TFoley does get a year older, you are kind of waiting for that pin to drop. We know that every single player at some point, whether that be in their mid30s or their late 30s, will end up seeing a very steep drop off in terms of play as they kind of age out here. It’s not expected that this will occur with Tyler Defoy going into this next season, but you never know. So, it’s something to keep in mind, but I don’t think it’ll happen. When it comes to William Ecklund, he’s kind of in an opposite position where Tofolei is maybe waiting for that drop off. Eklund is on the ascent as he’s really getting to the prime years of his career. Many people believe that that usually occurs in a player’s mid20s, you know, 23 to 26 age range. Everyone’s different. You know, Nikita Cucharov really peaked at like late 20s, early 30s when he suddenly put up 140 points in a season. But for Ekkund, he turned 23 at the beginning of this next season. And so, you are expecting yet even more improvement from him. already he got a good bit better last year where he was able to round out his defensive game and become perhaps the best defensive forward on the Sharks while still putting up a really respectable amount of points. And so going into next season, if he is able to improve in both of those areas still, maybe we could see, you know, 70 plus points from William Mecklland and some really solid defensive play. when it comes to the last player on this line, Mlin Cabbrini. He had a fantastic rookie season and the sky is the limit for this particular player. But what he needs to avoid is falling into that sophomore slump. The reason this term exists is because it does happen with relative frequency and it very famously occurred with the last first overall pick in 2023, Connor Baddard. After an incredible rookie campaign with a really bad Chicago Blackhawks team, he came into this past season and was just simply not as good. His point totals were slightly higher, but that was in a good amount more games. So, actually his points per game totals had dropped off quite a bit. And so, people’s opinions of Conor Baddard on a better Chicago Blackhawks team this year, not much better, but better, had also taken a big hit. And so, it is possible that this also occurs with Celabbrini. The fact is is that teams now have the pre-scout on you. They know what your tendencies are. They know what you’re capable of. They know what you’re going to try to do. and it’s about attempting to remain ahead of the curve and continue to adapt your game. I think CBrini will be able to do this and will be able to eclipse his rookie performance, maybe hit the 70 to even 80 point mark going into this next year. But like I said with the Foley, you never know. But all in all, I would say this first line should be an improvement over what it was at last year. When it comes to the Shark second line, this is where things get a little bit more shaky because it seems very clear on the surface that the wingers are going to end up being weaker. Last year the Sharks had Granland who was very good in the spot as well as Zetterland who was okay in this position. This year however they will have Skinner and I currently have Colin Graph somewhat interchangeable with Kurishv. I thought Graph would give more of a defensive outlook. So that’s who I have in this position. But in either case it’s not really going to be that much more of an improvement. If we go for the head-to-head comparison, Skinner is pretty much just a strictly worse player. I would say then Male Granland. The only benefit that Skinner has is that he is a bit more of a goal scorer. Granland was pretty good in that area still. Had a really good shot, he just didn’t use it all that often compared to someone like Skinner. And while he does have that career of being like a 30 plus goal guy at times, you know, with Buffalo or with Carolina or whatever the case may be, it’s not necessarily something that he has done all that frequently quite recently here. And if he was still a 30 goal scorer, we probably would have seen it last year with the Edmonton Oilers when he had the chance and opportunity of playing with two of the best players in the world, including the best player in the world, Conor McDavid and Leon Dryettle. The fact that he rarely even got shifts with those players in comparison to other guys in Edmonton means that, you know, he probably doesn’t still quite have it. He’ll be put into a better position anyway here with the Sharks. And maybe 20 to 25 goals is in the cards, but that’s still worse than what Granland can offer, especially when you consider the fact that Granland is also a center and plays the penalty kill and Skinner is very bad defensively. So, a drop off there for sure. On the other side, Zetterland compared to Graph. Graph at the very least should be more responsible in his own end. Zetherland was never bad in that spot, but he wasn’t particularly good either. And so Graph should be the slight improvement. But offensively, it does seem as though Zetherland had the higher ceiling. He did put up 24 goals a couple of years ago. That was actually a team lead at that time. Now, to be fair, we haven’t really seen what Graph is capable of doing in the NHL. He put up really good points with the Barracuda last season. And then despite getting some second line time at the end of this past year with the Sharks, it was in a situation where San Jose was looking a lot worse at that time. So, it’s hard to judge him too harshly. With just 40 games under his belt, there is still room for some growth here for this young player. And maybe he does come into next season and is like a 20 plus goal scorer, but it’s hard to really predict that that’s going to end up being the case. It is most likely it ends up being a bit of a drop off at least offensively. And so that’s going to make the second line less dangerous than it was last season. That is only with looking at the wing positions. However, the big X factor on this second line is actually coming at center. While it is still Will Smith playing just as it was at this beginning of last year, he is a vastly vastly different player. At the beginning of last season, Smith was not ready to handle a top six spot. In fact, he was barely ready to even be playing in the NHL. The Sharks had him here as like a trial by fire, but he was not prepared to handle this position. And it took some time for him to really get used to it, but by the end of the year, the last half, he was just firing on all cylinders. Even though that was on the wing, and now he’s going to be going back to center, which is going to be somewhat of an adjustment, he should still be much better equipped to handle this situation than he was last season. So, that’s going to be a significant significant upgrade. Could it make up for now the deficits on those wings in that second line? Maybe, maybe not. Depends just how good Will Smith is at being able to drive his own line. But he was really impressive at the end of last season. So I definitely don’t want to count him out. But all in all, if you take the top six as a whole, it should be better. Now we get to the third line. Wenberg is going to be probably a onetoone comparison here and probably the same as Tyler Defoley. Not expected to get much better, not expected to get much worse, but it is on the wings where unlike in the second line, you are actually going to be upgrading. Goddette over Luke Cunnan should be much better. And not only is Godet also able to contribute offensively because to be fair, Cunnan was able to score some goals here or there. Goddette put up 19 this past season with Ottawa. I don’t expect those same numbers, but anywhere from like 8 to 12 would still be pretty good. But it is defensively where you’re hoping Godette will end up being pretty good here. The Sharks coaching staff had convinced themselves that Luke Cunnan was actually a good defensive player, but that was obviously not the case. And as we saw as he got traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets, they also realized that that was not the case. kind of some false advertisement here from the San Jose Sharks as he quickly fell out of favor. Ended up as a healthy scratch and I don’t even think Luke kind of even has a contract at this point, but that’s neither here nor there. Not the point of this video. The idea is that Godette should be a strict upgrade. And then on the other wing, Goodro to Kurv. These are two very, very different players, but you’re definitely not going to be catching me saying that anyone is a downgrade over Barclay Goodro. So Kurichev from an offensive perspective, even at his worst, is going to be able to put up better numbers than Goodro. at his best. We’re going to be talking about like 10 times better offensively than what Goodro could ever really do this past season. And then even defensively, as I mentioned, the Sharks coaching staff had also convinced themselves that Goodro was really good five on five in this area when it was very much not the case. And so maybe Kurichev will be slightly less reliable, quote unquote, than Barkley Goodro, but he can’t be that much worse in the general sense of five on five defensive play. So all in all, this third line should be much better offensively and also pretty good defensively in comparison to last year’s. The fourth line is where we might see a bit of a drop off here. Now, it’s a little bit strange cuz in 2425, the Sharks did have Denil Guushian starting off the year on the fourth line. This only happened one single time, so you can kind of more so substitute him with a guy like Carl Grundstrom or Clim Cen in this spot. going head-to-head, Dandria compared to Dandria, like it’s the same where you’re not really expecting much difference. If anything, maybe Dandria could even see a little bit of improvement because this past year with the Sharks, he was quite bad. But previously in his career with the Dallas Stars and his young career, admittedly, he had looked promising at timesish for at least a bottom six player. And so maybe there’s room for growth in this particular player. But if anything, it’s like a side grade. Not really much happening. On the other side, Goodro in comparison to Guushian or Cen or Grundstrom. Again, not going to be saying that anyone is a downgrade over Barklay Goodro or anything like that. And but at the very least, you know, Goodro provides some short-handed play, something that Grunch or Cen or Gushian don’t actually end up doing. So, it’s not the end of the world, especially on a fourth line when it comes to a guy playing like seven or eight minutes. It’s at center where you might end up being more hesitant here because last year the Sharks did have Nikico Sturm. He was pretty good in this area, but in particular, he was very good on the faceoff dot. And for a Sharks fourth line that really struggled to maintain any amount of possession, actually being able to start with the puck off of these faceoffs was extremely valuable. And that’s not something that Zaka Stapuk is going to provide at as high of a level if he does end up getting this position. However, as we know, Mike Greer is very high on Zack Stap as a player. when he acquired him, he viewed a future elite thirdline center in the sort of realm of an Adam Lowry type of player. If some of that potential does actually leak out here in this season, Zakasta could end up being better than Nico Sturm. I’m not sure if I’m expecting this and definitely not right from the get-go game one. It will probably be a little bit worse, but the fourth line is not nearly as important as those top nine players are. And so generally as a top 12, I would say that the Sharks forward group has seen an improvement. When it comes to the blue line, let’s take a look at the top fours. Last year, the Sharks had Walman, CC, Ferraro, and Ruda. This year they have Orlof, Ferrar, Mukamadullan, and Clingberg. The only hold out being Mario Ferraro. Now, some people will approach trades by saying, okay, which side got the best player. And if we do the same logic here, the best player out of both of these two teams defensive cores is likely to be Dmitri Orof. Now, I say likely because as I’ve mentioned in a previous video, we don’t know if Orlov is going to be able to bring his best. Not only could motivation be a question, but also just age as Orav is 33 years old. But realistically on paper, he should be the best out of anyone here, even above someone like Jake Walman, which is a benefit to next year’s San Jose Sharks team. When it comes to Mario Ferraro, kind of like with Ty Dandra, if anything, you’re likely expecting somewhat of an improvement. Not only is this a contract year where there’s even more motivation to do well to perhaps earn a contract with a contending team in next year’s off seasonason, but also being able to play or at least have the potential to play on a pairing or even just on the team with Dmitri Orlov should be beneficial for Mario Ferrar to perhaps even see some growth in his game. He’s still relatively young as a defenseman. Still the ability to actually see some just general levels of increased play in areas that he has struggled with. And having a guy who has had as much success as Orlof has had to be able to mentor him a little bit could be extremely extremely good. For the other two players in both of these top fours we have last year being CC and Ruda. This year it is Mukamadullan and Clingberg. Out of the four I would say Mukamadullan is definitely the best. We had seen some performances last year at the end of it with Mukhamadulan that was better than anything that we had really ever seen from CC and Ruda. So, as long as he’s not too heavily impacted by the injury that he sustained last season, he should be good to go and better than anything that the Sharks had in those areas. And then when it comes to uh Clingberg, he’s definitely quite hit or miss. There is a chance that he ends up being very successful in this position, a solid top four guy. And then there’s also a chance that he just completely crashes and burns. But honestly, you know, even a crashed and burned John Clingberg is likely not that much worse than what we saw out of Ruda on a yan on Yan Ruda Mario Ferraro defensive pairing last season. So even then, it’s not the end of the world. This top four should end up being a good bit better than what we saw last season. On the third defensive pairing, the big wild card is definitely Sam Dickinson. Hard to predict exactly what we will get from this teenage defenseman. It’s possible he makes the jump and is really, really great. And it is also very possible that he’s this huge liability that the Sharks just can’t play all that often in this spot. The role of a defenseman, especially as a teenager and a young guy, it is not easy to do at the NHL level. But even if Dickinson is not frequently in the lineup here, and Ley is playing with a guy like Timothy Ldrin or Vincent Darn, at worst, this is a side grade over what the Sharks had last year when it came to Henry Thun and Matt Benning. Benning isn’t even in the NHL anymore. And then with Henry Thrun, he was barely good enough to even crack a top six on a Sharks team that was not very good defensively. So that’s not exactly a glowing recommendation. So realistically, it should end up being okay. And generally, the top six will be better than what it was the previous season. It is between the pipes where things do get a little bit shakier because in the backup goalending position, I would say that the Sharks have done better. Vanichek wasn’t great in this area. and the Dulkovich is at the very least somewhat average or at least he was last season with the Pittsburgh Penguins, it is in the starter spot where things might not be looking as great because Mackenzie Blackwood, while I wouldn’t say that he was an elite goalender, he was definitely above average, rather good, and gave the Sharks a chance to win many of the games that he did play and went on to do very much the same thing with the Colorado Avalanche. And with Ascarov, while he is one of, if not the highest goalender potential-wise outside of the NHL currently, the ability to actually do that in what would end up being his full-on rookie season here in the NHL is not all that easy. Perhaps he follows in the same pathway as Dustin Wolf this past season and is a Calder finalist by the end of the year. But that’s not an easy thing to do. We have seen some inconsistencies in Ascrov’s game going back to last season. Some really great outings, some not so great outings. And so if that continues going into this next year, I would say he probably ends up being around middle of the pack, which would be a small step back from what we saw from Blackwood. However, as we know, Blackwood was traded in the early parts of December this past season. And in hisstead, the Sharks acquired Alexander Gorggivv from the Colorado Avalanche. And I can definitely say with pretty good confidence that neither Ascrov or Nelkovich and definitely not both of them will end up being worse than what we saw out of Gorgv in the final two/irds of the season. So maybe the first couple of months won’t be as good for the Sharks goalending wise, but over the course of a full 82 game season, it will likely be more consistent. So that will be good for the Sharks. And so in conclusion here, the Sharks forward group should be better. The Sharks defensive core should be better. The Sharks goending wise maybe not as much of a high high, but should end up still being pretty good. And so to answer the question, are the Sharks tanking this season? I would say the answer to that is no. that the Sharks have looked to improve in most different areas this year. It is going to heavily hinge on how good the young players actually improve, right? How much strides players like Celibbrini and Eklland and Smith and Graph and Mukamadulan are able to make in their game. Will they be a good bit better than last season in all of these different areas? If the answer is yes, the Sharks should be a good bit better. If the answer is no, maybe they even take a little bit of a step back. But even with this being said, as I mentioned earlier on, actually passing many teams in the standings is going to be an entirely different story. I hope the Sharks can at the very least avoid last place and maybe finish ahead of a team like Chicago or Pittsburgh in that particular area just to help out the mentality of this team, but it is likely that, you know, a bottom five finish and a really good draft pick is still heading this team’s way, which is perhaps not the end of the world. Class dismissed.

Asking the question of whether or not the 25-26 San Jose Sharks are tanking this season.