How are the Suns Going to Score?

How are the Suns Going to Score?

[Applause] [Music] Hey, you’re listening to the Sun’s Jam Session podcast. Shooting the about the sun since 2019. Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey. Thanks again for pressing play, jamsters, and thank you for lending your ears to another edition of the Suns Jam Session podcast. Yes, it’s another jort coming right at you. Uh, it’s been fun kind of doing these jorts this this off season. Uh, again, because they’re kind of easy to just hop on the microphone and put out there into the universe. So, again, if you’re an audio listener, this is just showing up on your normal feed. If you’re a YouTube listener, one thing that I’ve decided to do along with Matthew is to make this elite jamster content. So that is if you subscribe to the channel and you actually donate to the channel on a regular basis, you’re actually going to get this content ahead of everybody else, days ahead of everybody else. Uh because again, we want to provide value to you who support us. And again, can’t can’t thank you guys enough for supporting the Suns Jam Session podcast over the years. It’s been fun to do this. Uh it’s been a blessing to do this. It’s been great interacting with people for the most part. Uh but that’s just, you know, social media overall. So, what I want to do on this one is talk about the Phoenix Suns, you know, because they have this identity now that I think we’re all welcoming and we’re excited to see. But I really started to deep dive on bright sideofthe.com [Music] on how is this team going to score? So, as the season lingers just over the horizon, cuz it’s still 2 months until we even with the preseason, I find myself staring at this newly assembled Phoenix Suns roster. And honestly, I feel satisfied. Like, not elated, not giddy by any means, just a quiet, measured satisfaction. Because unlike last year, this team feels like it might actually know who it is. Identity, right? It should exist. This should be a team that hustles, uh, defends, puts pressure on the rim, all of those things that were painfully absent from a season ago. And because of that, we ended up watching the most aimless version of The Sun since 2019. So, yeah, shifting the pendulum in the opposite direction deserves at least a polite golf clap from those of us still watching every possession like it matters. But here’s where I get in my own way. I could golf clap, but no, I must analyze. And the more I do, I still don’t know how this team is going to score. I still don’t see a blueprint for how the offense becomes sustainable. Like, sure, they’re going to be competitive. They’re going to scrap. They’ll fight. But will that to translate to wins in the box score? I’m just not convinced. There are just too many offensive gaps. Too few players who can reliably create shots. Too much hope resting on role players to be more than they are. I’ve seen the math. I’ve read the threads where people are breaking down where the points can come from, adding, you know, like, well, Devin Booker plus, you know, Jaylen Green did that’s 50 points plus Dylan Brooks is, you know, 17 points, you know, plus plus. Uh, I see it and yeah, I can play along with those equations, but philosophically it’s hard to buy in because when I zoom out, I see a team that lacks playmaking and shot creation and shooting, real shooting, especially from beyond the ark. And the two guys who can shoot, Grayson Allen and Royce O’Neal, are the same two names most people are trying to package in trade scenarios. So, let me play this out. Let me see if I can accurately depict how why I’m concerned about this offense. And who knows, maybe by the end I’ll be in a better place. And again, if you’re watching this on YouTube, thank you for being an Elite Jamster. Uh unless you’re not an Elite Jamster and you’re watching this a few days from now. Again, I’m recording this on Sunday. So, be an Elite Jamster, man. Hit the thumbs up button, subscribe, all that All right, so let’s start with playmaking. We’re back here again, right? talking ourselves into positionless basketball. And this time it’s Devin Booker and Jaylen Green slated to be the back court for the Phoenix Suns. And honestly, I can live with that. Uh, you know, the game’s been trending this way for the better part of two decades. Traditional point guards are becoming extinct. The four generals of yester year, the ones who rack up 11 assists and take four shots, like they don’t survive in today’s league. Not unless they can score, like real scoring. Facilitators now come off the bench in spurts. They run the offense for a few minutes, then they fade into the background with a Gatorade cup in hand. You know, that’s the trade-off. Like, you want minutes, you better be able to put the ball in the basket. So, I’m not losing sleep over the fact that the Suns are leaning into that shift. In fact, it’s a blueprint that’s already been tested, right? Like Cleveland did it last year with Darius Garland and Donovan Mitchell and Jordan, who’s now the Suns head coach, saw it firsthand as an assistant there. Garland Mitchell. Now it’s Booker Green. Now, official reports suggest Booker will slot in as the two while Green takes the point guard duties, right? But frankly, that’s just labeling. You can call him whatever you want. Labels don’t matter as much as touches. And when it comes to usage rate, shot creation, and who’s actually steering the ship, I’m going to continue to bet on Deon Booker because he’s the better ball handler, because he’s the steadier hand. Green. He’s got plenty to prove. And the hope, no, the need is that he enters this season with a chip on his shoulder that he’s putting work in this offseason to sharpen his shotmaking and elevate his playmaking because let’s be honest, facilitating has never been his strength. So, if you want to like Bball index, you can look at his advanced metrics and his advanced metrics suggest the tools are there. like he’s ranked in the 83rd percentile in overall playmaking talent, but when you dig deeper, the picture gets murkier. He was just the 25th percentile in passing efficiency last season and even more alarming seventh percentile in passing creation quality. Not exactly what you call ideal. you know, he’s got the playmaking talent, but when it comes to uh playmaking creation, passing creation, his his versatility is in the 50th percentile. Assist points per 75% per 75 possessions, 61st percentile. So, it paints a portrait of potential without polish, someone who can create, but often without purpose or precision. uh the Bledsoe effect, as I like to call it, and you guys know what that is. You heard me talk about it over the years. You know what used to drive me crazy about Eric Bledsoe is he had tunnel vision. He was quick and Green’s quick and he’d blow right by a defender. He’d get into the paint, he’d leave his feet, and then he’d only realize he had nowhere to go. That moment of midair panic when he saw his shot was about to be sent to the third row was when he finally started scanning for teammates. It led to countless turnovers and more importantly revealed a fundamental flaw. That was an inability to read the floor. He was focused on what he could do but not what they could do together. Now, I don’t know if Jaylen Green is cut from the same cloth and I truly hope not. The athleticism is undeniable. He’s a blur, a human highlight. But when it comes to seeing the floor through the eyes of a playmaker, there’s real room for growth. the instincts, the awareness, the ability to read a defense, anticipate the next move. Those are still question mark. And in this league, that kind of vision can’t be taught. It has to be developed through reps, feel, and most importantly, trust. So, Gambo pointed out a few days ago when the news broke that I don’t know if it’s like breaking news, but the news was reported that Jaylen Green was going to be the primary point guard and Devin Booker is going to play the two. You know, he pointed out in 22 games last season as a member of the Houston Rockets when Fred Van Vleet uh was was out of the lineup. Jaylen Green played uh well as the primary facilitator. You know, I I say that in quotes because he went for 19.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists in those games. The team was 11-1ven those games, but he wasn’t really like Green wasn’t really running the show from the point guard spot. That role belonged to Aman Thompson. Green posted 4.4 four assists over that stretch, you know, but he he also had three turnovers per game, and that is a ratio that raises more questions than it has answers. His assist percentage when Fred Van Vleet was off the floor was 19.7%. Which was third behind Alfred Shenun and Aman Thompson. So that’s a glimpse of his potential as a playmaker. Sure, but also reinforces the idea that he hasn’t quite figured out on how to steer an offense. And then there’s Devin Booker. Now Devin Booker is coming off a season in which he posted a careerhigh in assists despite not being labeled as the point guard, right? Tyus Jones was the point guard. Booker was the three. Because you’re not telling me Bradley Beal was the three. I mean, you can tell me that, but I don’t believe you. And it’s a testament to how positionless basketball has taken hold in in Phoenix. Like per basketball reference, Book played the point 1% of the time, yet led the team in assists. And he carried an assist percentage of 30.1% with an assist to turnover ratio of 2.4. Now, I get it. Like, the point Book label still carries baggage. It’s a reminder of the early years when he was forced into a playmaking role out of necessity, not design. and those scars linger in the narrative. But the truth is Booker’s evolved. He sees the floor better. He makes the right reads more often. And he can run the offense when called upon. He may never be a traditional point guard, but as a playmaker, he’s more than serviceable. He’s steady, he’s capable, and in the right structure, even reliable. Uh the challenge for Booker comes when the defenses start to lock in. We all know that. Like over the course of a regular game, his playmaking works. It flows within the rhythm of the offense. But when the pace slows, the court shrinks, and defenders dial in with one goal to dig the ball out of his hands, things change. And that’s when he can get jammed up. He has a tendency to wait a beat too long to pace to pass out of double teams. And it it sometimes it feels like he’s inviting the pressure before trying to escape it. like he wants the double team to come so it opens up more lanes, you know, but while he’s an elite scorer, he’s not physically overwhelming. Like he doesn’t have great length and that makes it tough when he’s passing out of those tight traps and it makes it even harder because he sees the right reads. But it’s just that in the biggest moments, those reads have to come faster and cleaner, you know. But at the same token, like let’s let’s use Cleveland as a reference point. The Cavs last year finished ninth in assists per game last season, averaging 28.1. Now think about this and ask yourself this question. The backcourt duo of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, how many assists do you think they accounted for per game combined? It was 12.7. And like that feels like a mark that’s within reach if the Suns have Booker and Green sharing the load. But if either misses time, what does this team become? I don’t even want to think about it. The key lies beyond the back court, though. Phoenix will need playmaking from non-traditional sources. That’s where someone like Oso Igodoro becomes essential. Like he might not start, but when he’s on the floor, he’ll need to facilitate because guys like Ryan Dunn and Dylan Brooks, they’re average playmakers at best. Man, they combined for 2.5 assists last season. What we need them to focus on is another area of concern for Phoenix, and that’s shot creation. Like shot creation is an art and it’s one that both Deon Booker and Jaylen Green have in their arsenal. Like each can take a defender off the dribble and find their spot and make it count. For Booker, this that spot is the mid-range. He’s a surgeon there. You know, 16 to 24 feet, he can rise up with that jumper and it feels inevitable. And Green on the other hand, he’s a blur. Like he thrives in downhill attacking with speed and burst. And Phoenix fans, I guarantee you, like, we’re going to love him for his explosiveness and his durability. He played 82 games last year, and it offers hope. So, it’s not all doom and gloom. Like, Green can collapse defenses and and finish with the at the rim with force, you know, kind of like uh a young Bradley Beal, but with more vertical juice. Booker can score from the mid-range. But outside of Booker and and Green, the Suns don’t have many playmakers who can reliably create their own shot. Like Dylan Brooks is average in that department. Ryan Dunn showed some flashes in summer league, but beyond that, there’s a real scarcity of isolation scorer on this rosters on this roster. Guys who can break down the ball or can take down the ball, break down a defense and generate a clean look when everything else breaks down. Say what you want about Kevin Durant’s isolationheavy style, but that’s a skill that’s gonna be sorely missed because sometimes not about scheme or sets. Sometimes you just need somebody who can get a bucket. You need a player whose offensive talent simply outpaces what the defense throws at them. And when you don’t have enough of those guys, it gets easier for opposing defenses to key in, send help, and blow up your rhythm. And like that’s why the interest in Jonathan Kaminga makes sense. Like sure he’s undersized at the four, but he can put the ball on the floor and create. That’s something this team desperately lacks. The problem with Kaminga though, like my biggest concern with what happens uh you know with him uh if if we were to acquire him, it’s shooting. And that’s my biggest challenge with this whole team, right? You know, even if they can figure out the playmaking, even if they can move the ball and make the right reads and get it to get the ball to the open man, the question remains, whoever gets the ball, can they actually knock that shot down? Because as it stands, this roster is not built to be efficient. It’s not built to shoot the lights out. And if you were making a list of things that we’ll miss from last season, offensive efficiency might sit right at the top. Sure, this team’s going to hustle. They’re going to grind. They’ll wear teams down with their energy, intensity, and effort. But all that is wasted if you can’t do what the game ultimately asks of you. Put the ball in the basket. So, let’s run the numbers. Yes, it’s it’s flawed to rely solely on last season’s stats, right? There’s new systems, new roles, new teammates, all that matters. But still, the math can’t help but paint a clearer picture of the road ahead. So, let’s assume that the starting five is Jaylen Green, Devin Booker, Dylan Brooks, Ryan Dunn, Mark Williams. Like maybe Nigel Hayes Davis slides into the four to provide more size, but for now, I think that’s the five that will open games. And let’s dig into what those five brought to the table statistically last year. Because when you combine their shooting and scoring data, a story begins to take shape. When you combine Green, Booker, Brooks, Dun, and Williams, field goal percentage combined from last season was 45.4%. Three-point shooting from last season was 35.1%. and effective field goal rate from last season was 52.7%. So for comparison, last se last season’s Suns starters, last season Suns, it’s a fun one to say, uh, posted a 48.4 field goal percentage, which was 10th in the NBA, shot 38% from three, which was seventh in the NBA, and carried a 56.4% 4% effective field goal percentage, which was eighth. So, if you take the projected starting five of the 25 26 Suns and compare it to starters percentages across the NBA from a season ago, here’s what you get. Again, 45.4% from uh the field, that would be 24th in the league. Again, last year we were 10th. 385.1% from beyond the ark, 21st in the league. Again, last year we were seventh. and a 52.7 effective field goal percentage would put them 23rd in the league. Again, last season we were eighth. So, what you’re seeing is exactly what worries me. Efficient shooting, it’s barely on the horizon for this team. Three-point shooting nearly non-existent. So, sure, you can crunch the numbers, add up last season’s points per game, and make some hopeful assumptions, but the reality still sparks serious concern. Now, chances are next season will be a flip of the script. Phoenix might emerge as a top 10 defense. Like, seriously, relentless grinding, suffocating, but offensively, they could fall to the bottom 10, struggling to put consistent points on the board. And that’s why my expectations next season are tempered. These are the reasons I plan on enjoying a new version of Suns basketball, but have no expectations of anything higher than a playing appearance. This feels like a gap year, a season dedicated more to develop and evaluation than chasing wins. But with this roster in its current state, winning basketballs consistently or basketball games consistently, I just don’t see it happening, Jamsters. So, what do you think? Let us know in the comments below. If you’re listening, uh, go ahead and write a comment on Spotify. It’s one of the cool features on Spotify. You can leave comments there. But, you know, on on that note, again, thanks for hanging out. Let me know what your thoughts are about the Phoenix Suns and whether or not they’re going to be able to score. Uh, and go home and love your fans. [Applause] [Music] Hey, you’re listening to the Sun’s Jam Session podcast. Shooting the about the sun since 2019.

The Suns have an identity, sure. But how the heck are they going to score points?