The Kuminga Situation Is Weirder Than We Thought…

The Kuminga Situation Is Weirder Than We Thought…

The Jonathan Kuminga situation for the Warriors is the biggest plot point left in the 2025 NBA offseason, which is probably more of an indication of how slow the off seasonason has been than anything else. Also, remember when Shams told us that this was going to be some kind of crazy off seasonason and we had to be on our toes at all times. Does anybody know when that’s starting? But anyway, Jonathan Kaminga, the situation is he believes he is worth a giant contract. The Warriors disagree and nobody around the league has been willing to both pay him what he wants and send back enough in a sign and trade to make the Warriors actually want to trade him, which altogether creates a very contentious situation in Golden State and could lead to something pretty unprecedented. a scenario where Kaminga doesn’t get an extension, but also doesn’t get traded, and instead signs a one-year deal to play another season with the Warriors so that he can enter unrestricted free agency next offseason, which is a scenario that both Kaminga and the Warriors have been trying to avoid for months. And with each passing day without a solution, that outcome becomes more and more realistic. And that option really illustrates the difficulty with this situation in the first place. Well, really, it’s it’s two difficulties. The first of which is restricted free agency. In the NBA, there are two kinds of free agency. Unrestricted, which is the conventional kind, wherein a player is free to leave their team and sign a new contract anywhere around the league. It is a true free market situation where any team that has the cap space can sign any unrestricted free agent for however much they think that player is worth. On the other hand is the situation Kaminga finds himself in restricted free agency where a player is free to go out and find offers from other teams but the incumbent team in this case the Warriors get the chance to match any offer Kaminga signs. This kind of free agency is specific to players that are coming off of their first contract or what people call their rookie contract in the NBA and is specifically designed to keep those players with the team that drafted them if they’re successful for the first like four to eight years of their careers. And restricted free agency has been especially effective at doing just that. We just do not see successful, highly drafted players leave their initial teams in free agency after their first contract basically ever. Some leave via a sign and trade or a team decides to trade them for whatever reason during their first contract. But as a direct result of restricted free agency, teams like the Warriors are at no risk of losing a player like Kaminga in free agency after their first contracts expire. And the issue in the case of a player like Kaminga is restricted free agency can actually lower their overall value on the market, not just limit their options in terms of teams they can actually go to. You see, typically teams don’t let players of Kaminga’s caliber just leave for nothing in free agency. In a soft salary cap system like the NBA, where most of the teams, including the Warriors, are well over the cap, letting a player leave and not signing them to a contract doesn’t benefit you at all. It doesn’t give you more money to spend on another free agent. I mean, in some scenarios, it does, but not in this specific Kaminga scenario. And there’s no compensation for the player leaving. So, in almost every case, if a player is any good at all, their incumbent team matches any reasonable restricted free agency offers. And in many case, even most unreasonable offers. Seriously, if you look at the history of restricted free agency, pretty much nobody ever leaves. Even when crazy offers are thrown out there, like the infamous contracts of Otto Porter, Tyler Johnson, Allan Crab, guys that were paid well above market value in restricted free agency, their teams match those offers every time, which has led to a scenario where a lot of the time teams don’t even bother trying to sign restricted free agents. What’s the point of using time and resources to sign a player in restricted free agency in a fast-paced free agency period if they’re just going to have that offer matched by their incumbent team anyway? Which results in less teams going after a player, which means less competition, which means the offers continue to go down and can result in a restricted free agent getting paid much less than they would have as an unrestricted free agent. But what makes the Kaminga situation unique is the other difficulty that I mentioned like a couple of paragraphs and like three minutes ago a lack of cap space. The NBA works within a salary cap system. So in order to sign a free agent, you have to be far enough under the cap to offer that player a contract of whatever you have in mind. And in the 2025 offseason, there was exactly one team with the ability to sign free agents to significant contracts, the Brooklyn Nets. This is an extremely rare scenario and listing all the reasons for why cap space was so limited. We’ll probably make this like a 30 plus minute video. I have actually covered it in more detail here, but for the purposes of this video, it’s simply important to understand that the Nets weren’t interested in signing Kaminga to a big contract. They were the only team outside of the Warriors they were capable of doing so. And as a result, the Warriors have been able to keep their offers much lower than they would have in a normal off season with more cap space out there and without the threat of a team signing Kaminga to an offer that they would then have to match. And that exact scenario is plaguing not only Kaminga, but basically every significant restricted free agent on the market this offseason. Cam Thomas in Brooklyn not getting the contract offer that he wants. Josh Giddy in Chicago not getting the contract offer that he wants. Even Quinton Grimes in Philadelphia not signed as of the recording of this video. All of these guys would have signed with their respective teams by now if they’d gotten offers that they liked. But the teams simply don’t have to do that because not only is there no risk to them leaving due to restricted free agency, but there’s zero motivation for them to offer more money. Without getting into the details, the most that any team around the league that is over the cap can offer Jonathan Kaminga in free agency is the $14 million a year mid-level exception. And with no teams competing to sign Kaminga to more than that, that is the number that the Warriors are sticking at with Jonathan Kaminga. But what makes this situation different is the Warriors are totally okay with not having him on the team next year. At this point, that’s actually probably their preferred situation. They are 100% willing to just trade him to a new team. And primarily right now, the two teams in on Jonathan Kaminga trades are reportedly the Phoenix Suns and the Sacramento Kings. two teams that are in this mode of we’re not that good, but we’re also not rebuilding and we probably could use a high upside wing like Jonathan Kaminga. And if Kaminga isn’t on the Warriors next year, all reports seem to be that that would be because he was traded to either the Suns or the Kings. But that requires two things. First, one of those teams would need to agree to a contract with Kaminga and then trade for him. Thus, the term sign and trade, which means they’d have to give him more money than the Warriors have so far, which is difficult with their respective cap situations. And second, they’d have to agree to send back a trade package that the Warriors would actually want in exchange for Kaminga. And so far at least, the super exciting Suns offer of Royce O’Neal, Nick Richards, and four second round picks is just not getting it done for the Warriors. But really, the core of this issue is this. Kaminga no longer believes that the Warriors are the best place to continue his basketball journey. And he’s probably right. You see, the beginning of Kaminga’s Warriors career goes back to a time period in which the Warriors infamously attempted to execute a two timelines strategy, which Warriors fans everywhere watching this video just got chills hearing that phrase for the millionth time. Essentially, the Warriors were in a pretty unprecedented spot within the history of the NBA a few years ago. They had been good for years, winning multiple titles and even adding Kevin Durant in free agency. But right before Kaminga was drafted in the 2021 draft, everything fell apart. The Warriors lost Klay Thompson to injury in the 2019 finals, lost Durant in free agency in the 2019 offseason, and then had terrible injury luck in the 201920 season. All of which resulted in the Warriors, a team that when healthy were still contenders, getting three lottery picks in the span of two years between the 2020 and 2021 drafts. Well, actually, the Warriors kaminga pick specifically was because they traded D’Angelo Russell to the Timberwolves for Andrew Wiggins in a pick, but they only had DLO because they got him when Durant left for the Nets in free agency. So wait, that goes back to the point that I made earlier about teams not wanting to lose free agents for nothing. So it still works. The two timeline strategy for the Warriors refers to the time period in which they still had Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson on the roster, thus making them a competitive roster while also adding three lottery picks in two years in James Weisman, Jonathan Kaminga, and Moses Moody. The goal was to get the young guys up to speed enough and quick enough to help them compete for titles now while also developing them to build the next era of Warriors basketball. The problem was they didn’t really do either of those things. They did win the 2022 title which was amazing, but none of the young guys really contributed, nor did any of them really develop in the following few years. Wiseman famously was a complete bust. Moody has gotten better and turned into an okay role player, while Kaminga frankly just felt out of place the entire time. The Warrior system under Steve Kerr has always prioritized ball movement, shooting, and quick reactions and reads to the advantages that are created. And Kaminga’s game just does not fit within that system. Now, you could also argue the fact that he can’t shoot that well, can’t pass that well, and can’t read defenses that well is just as a result of him being not that good of a player. But that’s not really the point of the argument we’re making here. In Kaminga’s opinion, this system has actually held him back in his development. And given the lack of success of the three lottery picks that they drafted between 2020 and 2021, he might have a point. Those guys were put in situations as highly drafted rookies that 99% of players have never had to deal with. They were supposed to develop to help the team with less opportunities and minutes than most other guys in their position get because the team was trying to win. And if they made any mistakes, those opportunities got cut more because again, they were trying to win. None of which helps their development. Now again, you could just say that these guys weren’t any good, and if they were, they would have played more and contributed more, but regardless of their talent level, the point that Kaminga is making was that he was given less opportunities to learn and grow in Golden State than he would have in other situations. And that Steve Kerr and the coaching staff were very inconsistent with his role and minutes, which made his development difficult, which honestly is pretty inarguable due to the whole, you know, two timelines thing. Which brings us to where we are now. Kaminga is frustrated with the Warriors. He can’t find a big new contract in restricted free agency. The Warriors are lowballing him on extension talks, and the Kings and Suns trade offers just aren’t good enough right now. So, what exactly is the path forward? Well, for that, I bring you back to the intro in which I mentioned a third option. Not Jonathan Kaminga signing an extension with the Warriors this off seasonason and him not being traded this off seasonason either, but him playing one more season in Golden State and becoming an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2026. Because worked into restricted free agency is what is called a qualifying offer. This is something that a team extends to a restricted free agent to indicate that they would like to retain their restricted free agency. It is a contract offer to play for one more season and after that season, the player is an unrestricted free agent. The problem for Kaminga and basically every restricted free agent ever is nobody ever signs this thing because for one, it underpays most players. In Kaminga’s case, the qualifying offer is $7.9 million for one season, which is significantly less per year than any other offer that he has on the table right now. Number two, it’s a massive risk for the player to not only hope they have a good season entering free agency the following year, but also that they stay healthy. One bad injury could cost them tens of millions of dollars, which for a lot of players is just way too much pressure. Third, in Kaminga’s case, his role is extremely uncertain in Golden State should he return, which could lower his value and is especially concerning in his situation given he already feels the team hasn’t helped him develop properly. and fourth. Most importantly for Kaminga, it would be weird. The team and Kaminga have been negotiating over this contract for a long time. It’s gotten contentious. And so for him to go back to a team that probably doesn’t want him there in the first place and to play there for an entire season would be uncomfortable. So he would be on a team that doesn’t like him, that he doesn’t like in an uncertain role, risking injury while being underpaid, and everyone involved would be extremely uncomfortable. that is just not worth the risk in 99% of situations, which is why no one ever signs the qualifying off. But the Kaminga situation could be the 1%. Because every other avenue to this point has been cut off. Most of the time, teams and players don’t even get close to considering the qualifying offer option because some solution presents itself. Either another team offers the player in restricted free agency, or the initial team and player come to a compromise on a new deal, or a sign-in trade is worked out. But for Kaminga and the Warriors, none of that is even close to happening, which makes the possibility of something that neither team wants, Kaminga signing the qualifying offer, actually realistic. All of which has made a truly unprecedented situation that still is not resolved.

The Jonathan Kuminga situation for the Golden State Warriors is the biggest plot point left in the 2025 NBA offseason. Which is probably more of an indication of how slow the offseason has been than anything else…
But Kuminga believes he is worth a giant contract, the Warriors disagree, and nobody around the league has been willing to both pay him what he wants AND send back enough in a sign and trade to make the Warriors actually want to trade him… which all together creates a very contentious situation in Golden State… and could lead to something pretty unprecedented.

#kuminga #jonathankuminga #warriors