The ULTIMATE Washington Commanders 2025 Preview

The ULTIMATE Washington Commanders 2025 Preview

All right, let’s wrap it up. NFC East, it’s the Washington Commanders, the biggest surprise team of last year. They go from picking number two overall. They select Jaden Daniels, losing the NFC Championship to the Eagles, 12-5 last year. Um, some big offseason moves trading for Debo Samuel and Laramie Tonsel. So, a receiver in Debo, starting left tackle and Laramie Tonsel. And FanDuel has the overunder at nine and a half for the Commanders. I think they’re one of the trickier teams to peg. I will explain in a second, but what are your initial thoughts on the Commanders? Yeah, I mean, I would say that they scream regression this season, except Jaden Daniels might be special enough to offset all of that. Yeah. Right. That’s that’s where I’m I they feel a little bit like the New York Giants from a few years ago, except instead of Daniel Jones at quarterback, they have Jaden Daniels. And that that could completely change what that means. The Giants were absolutely it’s it’s actually a really good comparison. They were massive regression candidates after their making the playoffs in 2022 were like this is a rebuilding team that just overachieved in year one. You could make the same argument. I mean Washington won like what one more game than the Giants that year. The Giants went and beat Minnesota, upset them and that got everybody all excited. If they’d won one more game, they would have been where Washington was. It’s a really good comparison. First year head coach, they surprise, they make the playoff run. The difference is yes, Jaden Daniels versus Daniel Jones, but then also bringing in Debo, bringing in Tonsel. Um they I think they upgraded the roster from where it was last year as well. Well, they yeah they so the Giants kind of got they lost a run of themselves coming off the back of that and they used that to kind of keep their players. Washington lost a run of themselves. Not like you know but they the excitement that Washington generated off the back of that run was used to then bring in players. Theirs is like so that’s where they’re like Houston from a year ago. Like Houston surprised everybody. They overachieved. They It’s like oh look we got our special quarterback. we we aren’t just good now, we can win a Super Bowl this year. And they went out and acquired players and they got aggressive. So, it’s sort of Washington now are almost like a hybrid of the Giants from a couple years ago and and Houston from a couple years ago. The Texans are definitely the the more exact proxy though, just because it was picked number two overall, hit on the quarterback, CJ Stout and Houston, Jaden in Washington, and then the aggressive on paper moves that look great. But I think in that area it is. But I don’t think Houston were necessarily a prime regression candidate last year. I think things needed to spiral out of control for that to happen. Whereas the Giants, so that’s why I think it’s a it’s like a melding of those two things. They they’ve treated it like Houston did, but I think they fundamentally are more like the Giants in terms of it’s built on shakier ground that is potentially ripe for regressing. So Jaden Daniels looked special last year. The other part that could regress is the fourth downs. Like how efficient they were on fourth downs, but also just how aggressive Dan Quinn was on fourth down. I I think they won multiple games specifically just like Raheem Morris in in Atlanta specifically because of how aggressive Dan Quinn was on third down and then how efficient they were. And then you go, okay, how do you do that? Well, when you have the skill set of Jaden Daniels, and I think if you’re if you’re trying to think positively here about Washington, the way they played down the stretch, I think they started to put a little bit more on Jaden Daniels plate. They started to tap into his running ability more and more. I described him last year as I think the best scrambling quarterback in the NFL. I think it’s between I mean, Lamar’s always in his own world, like if he wants to scramble well, he can, right? But I think the guys who execute scrambling on a pass play the best are Jaden Daniels and Josh Allen. I think they’re the two best at that particular skill. Lamar Jackson’s the best overall running quarterback, but they started to lean the Washington on on Jaden Daniels running ability in the design run game, QB sweeps and whatever else in crunch time on fourth down. That’s still there. Yeah. Right. So, it doesn’t mean you’re going to, you know, be 80% on fourth down or whatever they were at points last year, but you still have that really difficult to defend skill set of Jaden Daniels. those, you know, the fourth down models and and this gets tricky because this the smaller you slice these sample sizes, the the noisier the data is, but those kind of fourth down models of, you know, what the what the analytic says, they need to start or they need to factor in who the quarterback is for that to to be meaningful because the for the leaguewide fourth down data does not apply the same way to Josh Allen, to Lamar Jackson to Jaylen Herz and to um Jaden Daniels as well as it does to the to some of these other guys. The right models do, but you might want to the tweak would be like, hey, we’re going to hand it we’re going to give it to Allen’s keeping it or Jaden’s keeping it now. Now run that. Well, it’s it’s m it’s just that you know those guy what I’m saying is that those guys so normally if you had a team that was hyperaggressive in fourth downs throughout a season and maybe unusually good at converting them you’d be like well there’s another regression thing for next year that’s definitely going back to the mean but when your quarterback is one of those guys it might not um because you are dealing with the most or as good a scrambler as any quarterback in the NFL. You are dealing with as dynamic a rushing threat period and a guy that changes the math up front. So, you know, that is an area where I think Washington could continue to be excellent and steal win percentage points relative to other teams. Um, if you were looking at the Commanders roster last year, and this showed up in a lot of games that they lost, I think they struggled up front um stopping the run in some in some big games. They struggled from an offensive line perspective. Like you would look at both both trenches and it showed up in the AFC NFC Championship game against the Eagles. both trenches. They were they were okay at best, probably on the weaker side, but again, if if Jaden is that special, that does balance things out a little bit. He handles pressure well. He scramles well. He’s he’s going to run when nobody’s open. He had guys to throw to. Terry McLuren was fantastic. But I think the line looks better with Tonsel locking it down at left tackle. That was a big question last year. Um Sam Cosby at right guard. We just had Brandon Thorne talking him up as one of the better guards in the league. Tyler Bottes, I think, is very dependable center. So, I think the line’s better than the Debo factor as well. Josh Connelly coming in. Josh Connley could take a job. Him and Andrew Wy maybe battling it out at tackle. We’ll see if Connelly could take over. U McLuren looks special. You know, hopefully he gets paid at some point. I think he deserves it at this point. I think if he was um he’s been QB proof through the years now has his best quarterback in Jaden Daniels and his downfield ability is special. Debo was not healthy or the same player last year, but if he just turns back the clock one or two years, even if he is what he was last year, he’s still a good player. Yeah. But if he turns back the clock a couple years ago where he’s this move him around type of weapon, good receiver, but really great offensive weapon, man, this offense could be special. not just a good player, but even if he’s what he was last year and only the slot receiver version of what he was last year, like even if they say you’re not going to do any of the backfield stuff, you’re not going to play running back, you’re just going to be a wide receiver, like he’s still an upgrade for them. So Debo Samuel to me is I mean it’s a good move and it’s all upside. Even if he’s just the lowest version of what he could possibly bring to the table, it’s an upgrade over what they had. And you have all that extra room of, well, what if he goes back to being, you know, the Debo Samuel that was such a dynamic playmaker in San Francisco. Hey guys, real quick, only 40% of our viewers are actually subscribed. So, let’s change that. Hit that subscribe button. And now, let’s get back to the action. Um, run gamewise, Austin Eckler, Brian Robinson. I think they’re fine. There was a lot of talk about bringing in uh more dynamic running backs. still think Chris Rodriguez man Crosky Merritt you got him. Um, so yeah, I think the run game will be fine again because uh what Daniels brings to the table as the QB run threat. I I think that I think the commanders going forward can probably afford to neglect the running back position a little bit, but when and if they do get whether it’s Krosky Merritt or Saquon Type, it’s like, man, okay, I get it. They could create some serious explosives with the run game. But that’s how I would approach it. You know, you talked about Dallas sort of doing things the way the analytics would say just in terms of not investing in the running back position. Like Jakori Kroski Merritt is the type of running back that I would want adding to that type of backfield every year. Like take a guy in the mid to low rounds who actually a lot of people think has, you know, he could be RB1 in any given backfield. I don’t think anybody was saying that about Jaden Blue before the draft. like he was uh a running back of a type, you know, dynamic passcatching type of option, but nobody was like, “This guy’s going to be RB1 in your back field sooner rather than later.” Krosky Merritt could be that guy for Washington. Like, if he ended up being this the the alpha back in that backfield in, you know, week 11, again, it wouldn’t blow my mind. Um defensively, again, so the place where I would sour on Washington is just the personnel on defense. Um I I know Dan Quinn’s been a fantastic defensive coach. coach. I thought they got after the quarterback pretty well as far as sacks go, but I don’t think they were terribly disruptive last year. On paper, it’s not a good defensive front. Dron Payne on at defensive tackle. They paid Javon Kinlaw this off seasonason. I think Kinlaw can get after the QB. Still struggles in the run game. Jon Newton, Johnny as a rookie kind of had his ups and downs, you know, but but each of those guys, Payne’s played better football in his career. I think Newton still has a lot of potential. I think Kinlaw is at least on the upswing as a dependable defensive lineman. So, I think there it’s possible there. I love the way they deployed Frankie Luvu last year. Uh, you know, he’s an edge linebacker hybrid. They blitzed him a ton. He’s a very effective pass rusher. Honestly, might be their best pass rusher uh off the edge right now. Uh Dante Fowler’s out. He had a bunch of sacks last year. Dorren Armstrong, Dietrich Weise coming off the edge with Clean Furl. I do wonder if this is a team that’s in the Zidaria Smith, Javian Clowney, any sort of They just signed Von Miller. He’s ready. Oh, that’s right. They had Vaughn, too. I wonder if they’re also in the market for someone else. They their big thing is though that they like so much of what they need to be good is guys taking a step either, you know, somebody like Johnny Newton taking a big step forward year two or Don Payne like going back to the player that he used to be. I mean, he’s not been the same guy. Is it since he got paid or is was it even before that? Um, but like you know, Don Payne needs to be an impact player for this this defense. Um, the other big question for me, remember how aggressive Adam Peters has been as GM trades for Marshon Latimore in the middle of the season last year. Latimore did not look great. No. Down the stretch. Um, we know what happens with corners. Sometimes they lose a step and that’s it. Things are o it’s over. But that hit pretty quickly for Latimore battling injuries last year. If he’s good, that changes a ton. Um, they tra they draft Trey Amos in the second round. I like him as a rookie. Mike Sandra still did a fantastic job as a rookie playing on the outside as a guy that looks like wasn’t expected to play on the outside, but he has a chance to move back to his more natural nickel spot. He’s that, you know, go hard, hustle dude that everybody wants on their defense, especially playing in the slot. So, I think that trio of corners could be really good. Jonathan Jones as an insurance policy on the outside as well. I think so much is on Latimore though to to go back to where he was a couple years ago. Yeah, it could be. It’s also an area like that the secondary generally is where you’re concerned the most for this this defense, maybe this team. Um like if Vladimore is just kind of done at this point, then you’re relying on Sanil going back outside probably Trey Amos a rookie to come in and play well right away. I think they’d go Jonathan Jones and Trey Amos outside maybe. Um, and then you have a pair of safeties that are not necessarily, you know, dominant either. So that secondary could could be a huge weakness. All right, man. So for Washington, I guess my my overarching breakdown here is if you’re going man for man on their roster, I think they’re 15th or so, 20th maybe. But I think the quarterback is a force multiplier. I think the head coach, I think Dan Quinn deserves a ton of credit. I think he was a good head coach with the Falcons and then he was an excellent defensive coordinator with the Cowboys. He evolved as a defensive coordinator and I think showing that helps me believe the guy’s going to continue to grow as a head coach, too. So, I think you’ve got force multipliers at QB at head coach and then you have an elite receiver, an elite left tackle, a wild card in Debo Samuel. I I I believe the the Commanders, if you were just ranking them top to bottom, the roster is not there yet, but that’s like five pieces that that for a team that just went to the NFC Championship last year, they could make that run again because those five pieces are so strong. And you’ve got Cliff Kingsbury at coordinator stayed there. Kingsbury, I think, deserves a ton of credit for how he rebuilt his offense, how he, you know, created the whole environment there for Jaden Daniels to be really good off the back of his head coaching stint, which, you know, didn’t end well obviously in Arizona. Keeping Kingsbury around, I think, has been huge for them as well. So yeah, look, I’m I’m very interested by this team because I think overall they’re a lot weaker than certainly their playoff run would indicate. Even with the additions and I like them generally, Larry Tonsel, Debo Samuel, like those types of veteran moves I think are smart. Um, it could still easily be primed for, you know, a secondyear let down or regression a bit like Houston from last year. But Jaden Daniels might be the guy that says none of that matters. All right, make a pick, man. Over under nine and a half here for Washington. H it’s so obvious that I want to go under and say they win like nine games, but no, I’ll go over 10. Okay, let me preface this by saying I believe Jaden Daniels is a future MVP, MVP candidate. I’ve talked up the force multipliers that Jaden Daniels, Dan Quinn, Terry McLuren, Larry Munel can be for this team, but I just get I do have the sour taste of being so high on the Texans last year. Um, and the fact that I think there was some overachieving with Washington last year that will be tough to replicate and it’s a I think it’s a tough NFC. So, I’ll say under um because you have to pick one. You have to pick over or under. You do. So, I’ll take under. Um, even though again I wouldn’t be surprised if Daniels continues to take a step forward and they look like one of the best teams in the NFL. It also like as much as I think it was an overachievement last year, it was only by like one game, you know, like if they had if they had lost in the divisional round to Detroit, that would have been about their right level. Yeah. They were probably a toss up against the Bucks. Yeah. Right. Given given where they were, they beat the Bucks. Um, I thought I thought the Commanders played great. They got some turnovers. The Lions didn’t play their best game. Yeah, the Lions, I think, were they were a better football team who did not play better on the day. That would have been the the exact proxy for the Texans if they just lost in the divisional round to a to a clearly better team. Yeah. Um but instead, they pulled the upset and then lost to a clearly better team pretty handily. Like I, you know, I’m not saying they didn’t deserve to win that game. Like they did their part. They played spectacular. It’s just the Lions did not play their usual level of football in that game. and they consequently watching the what I believe is the worst team overall was better on the day. Thanks for watching all the way to the end of our video. Check the mic is live every Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday. So, be sure to hit this subscribe button so you don’t miss a thing. The all knowing algorithm is convinced that you’ll like these videos as well. And frankly, who we’d argue?

Steve Palazzolo and Sam Monson are back in the studio to preview the ENTIRE 2025 Washington Commanders season! 🏈🟠🟤

It’s Year 2 for franchise quarterback Jayden Daniels, and Washington has loaded up to help their young star take the next step. The Commanders traded for All-Pro left tackle Laremy Tunsil to protect his blind side and brought in dynamic playmaker Deebo Samuel to supercharge the offense alongside Terry McLaurin.

On defense, Washington continues to build a fast, aggressive unit, and with a balanced roster, they’re aiming to compete right now in a tough NFC East.

Can Daniels make the leap into the league’s elite young quarterbacks? Will Deebo’s versatility and Tunsil’s protection be the difference in 2025?

Steve and Sam dive into it all — from Daniels’ development to the impact of the new additions and where the Commanders stack up against their division rivals.

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