Margin for error seems SLIM for the Chicago Cubs

Margin for error seems SLIM for the Chicago Cubs

Razor thin. That appears to be the margin with this Cubs team. Here we go. You are Locked on Cubs, your daily Chicago Cubs podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. You are Locked On Cubs, part of the Locked On Network. Your team every day. Alongside Sam Olber. I’m Matt Cozy. Sam and I are lifelong fans taking our passion into a discussion with you on all things Cubs. Today’s episode is presented by 5Hour Energy Transfusion. Go to 5hour energy.com today and use promo code locked ongolf to receive 20% off your order only valid for September 30th. Order transfusionflavored fivehour energy shots today. Much of today’s episode will be reflecting on what the 2025 goals really are for this Cubs team. As we revisit the trade deadline last week, there’s definitely been a change of tone and mood around this team just within the last week. And what a week it was with the Cubs for from Jed Hoyer’s extension, Cubs Brewers, Rhino’s death, uh the trade deadline. Definitely a tumultuous week for for the team for for better or worse. And uh we do start with the Cubs taking two out of three from the Orioles, but just barely. Cubs won the series with a one- nothing win Friday, 4-3 loss Saturday and 53 win Sunday. Cubs are 65 and 46 now. Justin Turner hit a walk-off two-run homer to at least finish the week on a high note. On Saturday was the Cubs for a Cure game. My dad and I in attendance. Very emotional uh day for us. And uh Rhino tribute on Friday. And Cubs for a Cure this year raised $1.5 million. Uh outstanding stuff by that organization. And Sam, where do you want to start? Because Matthew Boyd was outstanding again. Cubs blow it late. uh they win a really nice close one at what was the shortest game of the year Friday. But what’s becoming clear for me since the deadline within the last few days and we’ll revisit later in the show with with really Jed Hoyer has known the margin for error with this team is incredibly small and and what what are your feelings right now coming out of this series win? Um, my feelings are that this is kind of the reverse Sunday that we’re we’re used to experiencing, which is kind of a mess usually we we we play a good solid weekend of baseball, lose on Sunday, and it and it impacts the show because we record Sunday where this I think there’s going to be a little bit more positive vibes because Justin Turner just had a a huge swing of the bat. But it was another three and three week. Um, another malaise week uh on the field. Another week of of 500 baseball that was uh emphasized by lack of of major activity at the trade deadline that I think you know we’re going to talk about that I I I I even think that there’s some forget the actual transaction element of it but just the the emotional part of adding a player and and and just you know this team needs a lift right now. This team needs a lift. They they’ve been passed up uh by the Brewers, which you know has has been coming and and felt like this. I mean, it’s been months now. And may maybe Turner’s homer today will do it. You know, something like that. They they need a lift. They need they need a jolt. Um but as far as the weekend goes, my takeaways, I I hate to be redundant. Um, but I’m going to be I I think my my takeaway was Kyle Tucker. Uh, a and his and I know he had a couple hits on Sunday. I’m not talking about average just something is up there. Uh, Matt, something is up uh in terms of, you know, he changes from the blue to the red gear and then Sunday he has a man on second, nobody out to start the game and he, you know, on an air and he just, you know, a sack bunt, maybe he was trying to bunt for a hit. There’s there’s something going on there. And and and to be fair to him, I get it. It’s a lot of pressure, a lot of money at stake, a lot of things going on. But between him, Bush, Seiya, and Pete, we continue to say, well, hey, this team’s got to outscore teams. And you know, uh I saw Lance Brazowski after the deadline talk about, hey, the the the bet that this front office made is that they have the best offense in baseball and they’re just going to run through teams. Well, statistically they do, but those four dudes aren’t producing right now uh in the second half of the year. I mean, PCA was until a tough backto-back Saturday and Sunday. U and I think Kyle Tucker’s the leader of that group. And I just I have a hard time taking this team seriously a as as a division contender, let alone a World Series contender, if he’s going to, you know, be a 23 24 home run guy and slug in the 400s. Well, this week we should dig into the the Kyle Tucker situation because I I watched most of the game back on Saturday when I got home. It’s the best, isn’t it? And well, yes and no based on. But sure, I just like to see like when you see it in in the when you’re there and how it looks on TV is what I mean. I think, you know, we’ll we’ll we’re gonna I meant to I I wanted to call you on Sunday before the game, but I don’t exactly have the best win loss record when I do that. Calling you off the air. Yes, we don’t. But I heard something on Saturday’s broadcast. Boo basically revealed that something is wrong with Tucker. Yep. So, I think I should grab that audio. Yep. And no m What? No matter what happens Monday against the Reds, we should lead with that because I I think it could be bigger than we we even realized. And and the Cubs offense still ranks one of the best in baseball. I get it to your to your point and and citing, you know, what what you heard on other uh from from Lance or whoever is uh is okay if we were, you know, relitigating the first like 60 70 games. Their offense hasn’t run through anybody for for weeks and weeks, right? That was the first 70 games. Uh so that hope by the front office if true is uh is is a is a poor plan. Um now and I have some strong feelings about that whole Tucker might be injured situation, but I’ll save that for a different episode. Yeah, I say we save it. Okay. But but hope hoping is not a plan. Sure. Could they could they get hot at the right time? Sure. But but your thing, Sam, that that again, you were the first one to talk about this. The Cubs just can’t get going. They’re they’re eight and seven out of the break. They win, they lose. They win, they lose. The other teams around them, or at least one team that’s closest to them, doesn’t do that. They are winning in bunches. And when they have a close game like they did in DC on Sunday, then they score like 15 unanswered. And the when was the last time the Cubs did that? It’s been months. I mean, I don’t think I’m exaggerating. Yeah. And and the Orioles entered Sunday winners of seven out of their last 10. But if you’re up three nothing with six outs to go on August 2nd, you have to win. Yeah. I think, you know, I don’t want to go, you know, they took two out of three, you know, and it’s like, well, but but they they lost two out of three against Milwaukee. They won two out of three against the Socks. They lost two out of three to KC. It just feels like they right now are in a holding pattern. And I and I think this is a really good segue to to talk about next is I really think the trade deadline was an opportunity to get them out of their holding pattern to give this team new life to reinvigorate some things as they go to a stretch run. That’s why the deadline is when it is. You have okay, you know, I heard JD talking about it today. At some point it turns into a marathon from a marathon to a sprint. And right now it just feels like this team is still in marathon mode. All right, coming up next, we revisit the deadline. It’s been a few days since since then, and really review, okay, where could this team go? What were the goals maybe in the first place or now? Because the the tone and mood for me has has definitely uh changed right after this. Today’s episode is brought to you by FiveHour All right, we revisit the trade deadline on Thursday. Cubs beat the Orioles two out of three. Shout out to the Everydayers. you could become a locked down cubs every day or by joining us every single episode throughout the week. I think the main question for me Sam in terms of the tone and mood change is number one just a simple question in sports did they do enough? But what I was wondering over the weekend and even being there in person on Saturday, I wonder if the players believe the team did enough and Castro is a great fit for the roster. could play six spots. Kitridge is solid. Rogers is solid. Shoot, we watched both of those guys this weekend. They had great appearances, but for me, it comes back down to the starting pitching. What What how have your feelings progressed on this throughout the weekend? Yeah, I mean I think from a baseball sense, just an on the- field sense, it seems like they’re they’re going to try and take a page out of the Dodgers book from last year, which is and you even saw council do it this weekend outside of boy. Pull starters early, go to the bullpen, and guess what, right? Guess what? It it it didn’t work uh uh on Sunday, right? Because the more guys you pitch, the more opportunity that that somebody might not have it. And Daniel Pency on Sunday didn’t have it. And Caleb Dilbar on Saturday didn’t have it. Now, that was, you know, that wasn’t council’s fault. I’m not saying it wasn’t, but it just seems like what they’ve decided to do is, hey, we weren’t able to get a lot of starters, so we’re just going to we got a ton of relievers we really like, and you know, in a playoff series, we’ll go, you know, if it’s not Boyd, it’s not Imanaga, maybe we go Horton one time through, two times through, and then matchups, matchups, matchups, matchups. Fine. I just don’t understand. This is more an off the- field take. I just don’t understand. It just feels so contradictory to trading for Kyle Tucker. Now granted, Kyle Tucker is in a massive slump, but but let’s we’re not talking about statistically Kyle Tucker, just the idea of one year of a player like that. you go trade for him and then at the deadline that’s when you decide to get timid and and not make a move and you know even get a guy like a Merryill Kelly or or you know who whoever whoever it was and and maybe I’m overvaluing their mid mid system and they either had to go allin with Casey and Bayister which they didn’t want to do for certain guys I don’t know all I’m saying is is with the way the season was going it is going momentum wise Brewers wise, it felt like this team needed a lift. Heck, it felt like this fan base needed a lift. And Sarroa, Castro, Kitridge, and and Rogers, you know, albeit in a vacuum, four helpful additions, I it didn’t feel like they got the lift that they needed. And you look back at where the Cubs have been, and I I’m I’m a big trends guy in baseball. You know, you look at the last couple months, the Cubs and Brewers, it’s not even close. And now you’re basically just running that back. And I know the Brewers didn’t do a whole lot, but they’re the team you’re chasing. And it just felt like the the Padres’s I felt like the Padres’s, you know, you know, they they they always go all in. But man, it really feels like like if that team, if the Cubs were to play the Padres’s and Phillies in a three-game series, one of those two, do you really feel confident right now at all? Not currently. Yeah. So, um, I was just surprised by it. Uh, I I do think Srooka will help him, but it just felt like this team needed a jolt. They needed a jolt and and now it’s going to have to happen on the field. And and what was the point of the off season, right? We talked about, hey, all right, Tom is going to, you know, we’re going to we’re going to see what happens, but if you’re in a position to succeed, they’re going to go all in. I mean, everybody Cubs are all in, including us. Cubs are all in. All in. All in. And and then once Jed got extended, everything changed. Yeah. I wonder if if the controllable starting pitcher thing was was um a little bit of a fallacy, but but but then I would just take five seconds to attack my own point of well do it do why didn’t you do it in January then? But also why do you need a controllable one? Why couldn’t you just find a way to get a rental? You have a controllable starting pitcher coming off surgery in Justin Steel next year. So, you don’t need a long that you just need one to get through the season. The Cubs have never have not replaced him. Well, that that’s where my my we didn’t mention that on our trade deadline show. At least I don’t think we did. Um because Jed Hoyer hadn’t had availability yet. So, he said the market for controllable pitching was massive. That was an exact quote. Well, then at what point in the week or day or last 30 days, why didn’t you pivot to Kelly, Hower, Morton, or Bieber? Those are kind of the four names I’m focused on, but probably more so Kelly and Bieber. Gallon. Gallon. Did it even get traded? So, those are probably the five names. I I get it. The controllable starting pitcher thing, but but that was I think we got lost in that. At least I feel like some of us did. It really should have been that one of those more prime rentals then, right? And and for them not to adjust and do that was was disappointing because the controllable thing it it was the the Sam the Twins. Here’s the best way I can illustrate it. Or get Suarez then if you none of First of all, none of the controllable guys moved. The the Twins had one of the biggest selloffs in the sports history and they kept Joe Ryan. It’s okay. No controllable starter was moving. So then why not take the steps of doing the Suarez Kelly combo or Suarez Gallon? Why why not you know try to find a match with for just Kelly or or could you package Morton with Kitridge? uh you know what was the market for Gallon like cuz he you know they they for some reason decided to keep him and decided the the maybe the qualifying offer and draft pick compensation would have been higher. That’s that’s the focus for me is okay they did get better last week but in this wide open field that we’ll continue to talk about throughout today and and the many weeks ahead because I believe the National League is wide open. I do too. So, if starting pitching is what brings this team down, then that is on Tom Rickettts, that’s on Jed Hoyer, and that will likely be what takes them out. I don’t care if relievers threw a higher percentage than starters in the last postseason. Doesn’t matter. Starting pitching is the is the the the the large weakness here, albeit the offense is has cooled off. Uh and and and they just they didn’t do it. They didn’t do it. And uh I I have to read this quote from Jed Hoyer, Sam. I have to. This is March 26th exclusively to the athletic. It’s worth it’s worth all of our time. Quote, “The National League is really challenging and when I look at our team, we have to play to our projections or better. That’s always the concern. We have to have guys outperform expectations. There are only a couple of teams out there that I feel like can sort of potentially be a little bit below projections and still make the playoffs. The Dodgers can have some things go wrong. I feel like for us, we don’t have a lot of margin for error. We need guys to improve. We need to stay healthy. We need to play clean baseball. we don’t have the ability to sort of muddle through and just show up and make the postseason close quote. And despite where they are now, Sam, and 51 games left, my one of my big takeaways this just this last five days, they can’t just show up and make the postseason. I don’t care if they have a seven and a half game lead on the first team out in the Reds. They can’t just show up and do it. Well, and that’s a shame if that’s their only goal, by the way, is just to make it and then whatever happens happens because that seems pretty clear. But the thing that sticks out about that quote to me is they’ve outperformed expectations at almost every level besides the steel injury. You’re let let’s say let’s say expectations, let’s just do a quick exercise. Let’s say expectations is a five out of 10. So, if a guy’s having a five out of 10, that meets expectations. Anything below, okay, with Pete, you’re getting a 10, right? Going into the year for what you thought you’re getting, you’re getting a 10. Okay. Michael Bush nine. Maybe it was a 10 recently. Sea 78, Kelly 10, Nico 78, Boyd 10, Palencia 10, Keller 10. I mean, who’s significantly performing? I would I would go as far as to say Tucker now is a right at about a 5’6 going into what his expectations uh uh are. Um Dansby is about a five. This is what Dansby is, right? You know who who’s significantly performing. The only one that you got is the steel injury. That’s the only one that you got. Ray’s been above expectations. What you’ve gotten from Horton has been beyond your wildest dreams. uh you know. Yeah, that’s a 10 for sure. My point is is you’re get what you were worried about. You’re getting and you still didn’t then go and supplement this roster to a point to say, “All right, we like you’re admitting it. We’re getting a year that you didn’t see coming. Nobody saw this coming from Pete at this level. Nobody saw Carson Kelly at this level. And now we’re just gonna kind of, you know, all right. Well, we we like our team next year. we’re going to build a team every year that could compete and well well next year what’s going to happen you know it’ll be a lot like probably 2024 where maybe Pete reverts back to being a 750 OPS guy and ask the Orioles and ex ask ask the 2018 1920 Cubs right you know it’s just it’s it’s never a guarantee and so when you got it you got to take advantage of it and so it does you you know we’re about to talk about the goals it feels like they’re going to what they want to do is run it out there get to October and and hope the balls bounce their way. We do that right after this. It sure seems like the Cubs goal in 2025 is to make the playoffs and whatever happens in the tournament happens and and they check this box of okay, we made it. Uh and don’t get me wrong, they make the playoffs, we’re going to be jacked up. Uh we’re going to we’re going to come out strong in terms of covering a playoff team for the first time since since we’ve uh been been on this show. But it it does seem like that that’s what they’re trying to do. And the reason why that is annoying is because the National League is wide open. Now, if the Dodgers are healthy and and that and by the way, that’s based on the FanDuel odds and other metrics, too. But but why are teams, you know, two through six, you know, between eight and 13 to one or whatever it is? If you you could double check my uh my math, but you know, the Dodgers are the favorite. Sure. And when they’re healthy, well, yes, they are the favorite, no doubt. But you have these six teams right now, Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, or Padres’s, whether it’s performance, whether it’s health, whether it’s age, all of these teams are flawed, which means a flawed team is going to make the World Series. last year was sort of a an anomaly now in baseball, Sam, where the two top teams made it. That that doesn’t happen really anymore. And and I could see fairly comfortably one of those six teams out of the NL uh not only making it, yeah, because of their strengths, but but because of, you know, their their flaws as well, if you get what I’m the picture I’m trying to paint. Um, and that’s something we could expound expound on throughout the year. Um, but man, I just I I don’t feel great about it. Yeah, the Cubs, look, it’s it’s one of those things where you want it all to go well and if it goes well, you’re going to celebrate and there’s a really there’s a chance that it will go well, but their their method and process just feels hopeful. Yeah. It just feels like they’re hoping they’re hoping that this works out. They’re hope I mean, you know, they’re hoping that Matthew Boyd can last this whole season. They’re hoping and and to me and and Craig Council’s even said this, by the way, not a direct quote, but to me, what managers, executives do is you play out the worst outcome in your head so you have a plan. You have a plan for it. And right now, it feels like what this Cubs team is doing is just saying, “All right, we got a good team.” You know, nobody’s saying it’s not a good team. It’s a good baseball team. We got a good team and we’re going to we’re going to make sure that we get to the postseason, which they will, and see what happens. You know, see see, okay, game one, boy, game two, Soda, game three, some combination of Horton, Sroka, and a bunch of bullpen guys, they pitch well, you know, we get the right matchup and, you know, maybe we the, you know, you have a little Diamondbacks Rangers of 2023 to your point or, you know, some 2020. How many times has Jed referenced the 2021 Braves? I mean, it’s been at least three or four times. That was an 80s something win team that went on to win the World Series. Well, it foreshadowed his deadline. And and we could sit here and talk about, you know, I don’t want to get into baseball as a whole, but the third wild card and the randomness of the playoffs, I think, has impacted executives. If we turn back the clock to the Yes, it has. to the 50s and 60s where it’s just hey, whoever’s got the best record in the NL meets whoever’s got the best record in the AL in the World Series, which is the best way to establish the best team. It’s not good for business, but I would argue that that’s best for baseball. Then you would have saw the Cubs be way more aggressive, right? They’re in this contest with the Brewers. You know, they’re they’re they have a legit chance to finish with the best record, but you know, okay, you got to win this series, you got to win this, and you got to look ahead. And it it does seem to me like there’s been this shift among executives of I don’t know how to phrase this. Yes, you want to win the World Series, but not far behind is just being good every year. You don’t want to have down years. And so there’s many many front offices on record, including the Cubs. Yeah. Hey, hey, yeah. Winning the World Series, you said that on Thursday. winning winning the World Series would be absolutely fantastic, but we really feel like there’s a major luck play that that plays into that. So, what we can control is just making sure that we put a product out there every year that has a chance and and there’s truth to that, but it also at the same time is a bit eye rolling and frustrating. Jed Hoyer said Thursday night, we want to be good every year. We don’t want to have the big up and down cycles, right? And I think for the I think I agree with that and I I subscribe to the theory. Hey, maybe in this sport that we’ve chosen that we love, it is more about the journey than than the destination if you wanted to get deep, right? But this year, I thought it was about the destination because of Kyle Tucker and and other moves and and signs that have occurred since that trade and into this season actually being played on the field, right? But what’s so interesting, why why are we lowering the bar to now checking the wild card standings? That wasn’t supposed to happen. What’s so interesting though is if you use the the quote unquote golden age of the Cubs as an example because Theo said it this every year. The best way to win a World Series is be good every year. Put yourself in a position and one of the years it’ll bounce your way. Well, the year it bounced the Cubs way, they also had their best team by far. And it was the it was the year that at the trade deadline they went all in. They filled their biggest hole with the best guy on the market. So, you know, in 2015, they had an awesome year. It was fun. They ran into a hotter, better team, but they weren’t the best team in baseball that year. They didn’t even win the division. In 2017, they sleptw walk basically through half the season, cranked it up at the end, and then just got beat by a significantly better Dodger team. 2018, they got beat by by their own division. And 2020 is a separate case. point is, you know, that that would really hold true to me if the 16 Cubs got beat, but the 17 Cubs was the team that won the World Series. In this example, the the best Cubs team won the championship. And and so I don’t know. Um I get it, though. I get it from Jed’s perspective. And maybe you’re right. Maybe maybe the offseason we explore deeper things about, hey, what what is it’s not football, it’s not basketball, what is a successful baseball team? and and you know how how much do you do you go in there because you know there wasn’t a move out there if the Cubs got Edward Edward Cabrera if the Cubs got McKenzie Gore even if the Cubs got Joe Ryan I don’t think that they are favorites to win the NL you know what I mean it it just would have put them in a in a better spot and as fans I think it’s frustrating that they’re not in a better spot we’ll be with you all week and all season long we’re here every weekday Cubs Reds this week Sarroa Lola Polo Imanaga Little and Horton Abbotts. Two tough lefties. Uh the Reds are the seventh team right now in the National League. Uh seven and a half games though behind the Cubs. Uh Marlins also on the periphery there. I believe they’re the eighth team now. Wow. So hopefully the Cubs can win two out of three against the Reds. Soka the new guy in there on Monday. The Reds also have little after that trade with the Rays for them in their their new guy on Tuesday. So, should be a fun series and uh we’re we’re excited to be with you every single day. Anything else? Can’t believe the Marlins are back to 500. Edward Cabrera through another jab. They are red hot. If you look up their record since I believe mid to late June, they haven’t they haven’t lost uh very much at all. This is Locked On Cubs, part of the Locked On podcast network. your team every day. For your second listen, check out the allnew Lock on MLB Game Night. They do a great job over there every game, every night, all season long. Get local analysis on a national scale. Find MLB Game Night on the Lockdown MLB channel on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast. We’ll be back after Cubs Reds on Monday. He’s Sam Olber. I’m Matt Cozy. This is Locked On Cubs. Go Cubs.

Find out why the margin for error is slim for the Cubs as we breakdown the Cubs/Orioles series, revisit the trade deadline, reflect on a quote from Jed Hoyer in March, discuss what the goals for the 2025 team really are, and much more.

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