They Should Have Never Let This Happen

They Should Have Never Let This Happen

I have a question. Who do you think
the best player in the NHL was at generating
scoring chances off the rush last season? This is a chart of the top 250 players
at generating 5 or 5 chances off the rush last year. The further to the right
you are, the more ice time you had. Think of defensemen
who eat a lot of minutes, or guys who went super deep into the playoffs. You know, Evan Bouchard’s, Kale McCart,
maybe even, Mark Shively. But the interesting part of this graph
is that the higher up you go, you’ll see a higher rate of offense
generated through assessing teammates shots or taking your own shots
while on the rush. This is where you start to see top liners
like Sam Bennett and Niko he share, but it’s also where you see superstars
like Connor Bedard and Nikita Kucherov. Once you get to the top right, it’s
the best of the best. The most elite players in the NHL who,
while they can do everything, they’re also extremely efficient
off the rush and they generate a lot of rush chances while playing
the most minutes on their team. Leon Draisaitl,
Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid. Except we’re missing some people. On the left, you’ll see guys who are hyper
efficient, but for one reason or another didn’t get the same minutes
that the 99 overall superstars got. Owen Tippett, for example, is good,
but really all he can do is score off the rush. A true specialist
who excels in limited minutes and not someone you would build
a team around. He wasn’t injured. He just didn’t do everything
well enough to garner more minutes. Microwave score. Jacks, on the other hand, missed 20 games
this season due to injury. He leads the entire
NHL in rush chances generated per 60, but he didn’t even cross 1000 minutes of five
five ice time this season. He’s been on the cusp for a while,
and personally I think he’s got MVP potential next season. But if we adjust this list to only show
players who played as much at five,
five is last year’s first overall pick. You can see how much MacLean Kyle
Abrini, an 18 year old rookie, has changed the narrative of what’s possible
to accomplish in today’s NHL. He’s the best 18 year old to enter
the NHL since Connor McDavid,
and it’s not really even close. Maybe the first teenager,
whose rookie season was so good that he’s been dubbed
generational post draft, a franchise defining center
responsible on both sides of the puck and carries himself on
and off the ice like a true leader. When you factor in how little help celebrate he has,
it becomes all the more obvious. He was the best player in the NHL
this season. Off the rush as an 18 year old. But you know what’s crazy? He’s just the tip of the iceberg for what
San Jose is built. The best young core of talent
that the NHL has seen in a long time, and we’re just seeing the beginning of it before we can truly get what makes this young
core of prospects for San Jose so good. We need to understand
a statistic used in hockey to help us make sense
of all the different leagues that potential rookies can play for before
making the NHL. Introducing NHL equivalents, i.e. NHL equivalency or NHL E for short, is a type of model which tries to adjust
for point totals in different leagues. The purpose is to translate the point
totals of another league to the NHL, equivalent of that. Before it existed, scouts had to guess
how the different leagues talents adjusted season to season,
and then they would have to compare it to other leagues, which are also adjusting
season to season position by position. Age to age. Play style by play. Style. A question that could hypothetically come
up might be with your third round pick. Would you rather a 17 year old
playing against men in the Russian League who put up two points in 18 games
but had limited opportunity up and down the lineup, or a 19 year old
who’s doubled his production in the Quebec League
over the last year when he wasn’t drafted but is small enough that he didn’t qualify
for the World Juniors team. That question wasn’t easy before. Well, it’s still not easy,
but NHL equivalency would help show how impressive that 17 year old
was compared to the 19 year old, who is comparatively shooting
fish in a barrel. Oh, and if you’re curious, player
A was Pablo Butch Navid’s player B was Connor Garland. Both great players, but Butch never had 76
points in 73 games a couple seasons ago, a massive step up from his two points
in the Russian League as a 17 year old. Turns out, even if you’re getting games
played in time on the ice and the Russian League is a 17 year old,
you’re far ahead of the pack. Garland, however, was a little shorter
than was playing in the Quebec League as an overeager. History
tells us that if you’re not drafted, you have a small frame
and you produce a lot of points. Your odds of success aren’t
actually that high. 2% chance of becoming a good NHL player. That’s why he went in the fifth
round in 2015. Despite putting up over 120 points. How these models work
is they give you a percentage chance that a player will turn into a star,
or just a regular NHL, or if you’re getting a lot of games against
tough competition, but fewer points, the model will say you’re probably an NHL player,
but maybe not a star at the NHL level. As of today, if you look at the top
25 prospects in hockey, the very best in the world. When comparing counting stats,
size and age across every potential hockey league and sorted these players by their
likelihood of becoming a star in the NHL. Five of these players are currently
members of the San Jose Sharks. 20% of the best prospects in hockey
are going to be in the Bay area for about the next decade, at least. We know MacLean Abrini already
arguably a generational talent who is still considered a prospect because he hasn’t played
100 games in the NHL yet. But he was just one of two rookies
who suited up for the sharks last season. Will Smith No,
not that Will Smith William Charles Patrick Smith finished sixth
in rookie of the year voting last year after starting the season
with zero points in his first eight games. He proceeded to score 45 points in 66
games, a pace good enough to put him up there
with the rest of the loaded 2023 draft class. Arguably
the best group we’ve seen since 2015. What I’ve loved so much about Will
Smith’s game is his shot. He is one of the most efficient wrist
shots in hockey, despite having a slower release
and most young players. He still ranks as an above
average finisher, and that’s due to how often he’s able
to find open ice and square up to the net early
to maximize his power on release. obviously you
want more of it then you want less of it. But it’s kind of a hard concept to define. What is hockey IQ? Well, really, it’s a situational tool,
among many other ways. You could have a high hockey IQ specifically, and knowing
when to offer support on the fore-check. Or you could have high hockey IQ when it comes to finding openings
for shooting opportunities. I think the latter is where you’ll really
see Will Smith’s IQ kind of come in. Will Smith
as one of the hardest average shots in the league,
and it’s partly due to his slower release. Smith is become excellent and not only finding ice for the shots,
but also creating openings for shots. Sometimes that means circling all the way
back out to the point to load up, and sometimes it means battling in
the net, front to top in the greasy ones, always keeping his body square to the puck
and always ready to receive a pass. This allows Smith to shoot from range
more often than most players in the NHL. He’s in the 95th percentile for shots
taken from long range, and his two goals are more than almost
every other forward from range. Will Smith has been a top five player
in his age group for his entire life, and apart from October 2024,
when I’ll give it to you. Will Smith wasn’t that good. He has been a top five player in his age
group for his entire life. As the season went on as well,
you could start to make the argument he was number
four and number three in a redraft. He has been that good. It’s a shame you went number four,
but it was such a good draft class. But he was overshadowed
by Bedard, Fan and Carlson, and then he was overshadowed
by celebrity last season on his own team. But Will Smith’s time to shine
will come very soon. But first I’m going to name three names for you and
let you guess what they have in common. John Tavares Connor McDavid. Michael. Misa. Any guesses? These guys are the only three forwards
who have ever been given exceptional status to join the
HL at 15 years old, who then went on to lead the HL in points
per game in the year they were drafted. Tavares went number one overall to the
Islanders and with very little help. He has had multiple MVP nominations
and he has slain playoff demons from multiple franchises. Connor McDavid went number
one to the Oilers in making the case for being the greatest player of all time. Michael Misa went number
two to the sharks, despite hitting the highest point total in the
HL from a player since Patrick Kane. Why did Misa not go number one
if his offensive production was that good? Was his defensive game
just that bad? Nope. Actually, Elite Prospects
compared him to Maclean’s celebrity and rated him as the best two way
forward in the draft. Dan okay, well,
is he a boomer bus prospect or something? Nope. Nope. Again, you know, elite prospects, Adam,
as having the highest floor of any prospect in the draft. He’s really can’t miss. In terms of he will bring you
a certain level of production. So, I mean, what’s the issue here? Well, the one thing you’ll kind of hear
scouts talk about is that the 134 point scoring superstar forward,
who gained exceptional status into the air as a 15 year old, doesn’t have
the best ability to create one on one. So, for example, at the NHL level,
you might see him as being someone who excels in a good opportunity more than someone who makes
the most of a bad opportunity. That’s a real challenge with a prospect,
because when the tools are there and you see flashes of excellence,
just maybe not done as consistently, it’s kind of a concern,
but it’s also kind of not. Okay. Well, maybe the scouts are looking at the minus ten
plus minus in four playoff games, and he didn’t get invited to Team Canada
at the World Juniors, and he missed the U18
Men’s World Championship. So I mean, there’s reasons
to not pick him right. But he’s playing injured in the playoffs. He recovered from that injury instead of
playing in the World Championships. And I don’t think me
or you think that Team Canada made the right roster decisions
at the World Juniors. So you know when you could feel yourself
looking for a reason to disagree or maybe not disagree,
but looking for a reason to not take the exceptional status
superstar or prospect. I think that’s
what some of the scouts are doing here. Matthew
Schaefer is obviously unbelievable, and I think he was a correct
first overall pick. But Misa is just that good at every level
he’s played in. He’s among the most elite company. He plays a two way game. He has game
breaking speed and skating technique and say you don’t like him
creating as a center. Okay, well, he also plays a wing, probably
on 19 year old Maclean’s celebrity wing. Take your pick. But Michael Misa is rivaling Ivan Damodar
for most exciting forward prospect in hockey,
which means San Jose is drafted a player of this caliber
for the third straight season. Following up on one of the best
team drafts in modern hockey. The 2024 San Jose Sharks
cleaned up at the draft. It wasn’t just celebrating. That is a home run in and of itself,
but their first pick in the second round. Igor Cerna looks like easily
the biggest steal of the draft to finish off
is the all skill power forward that every team wishes
they had in the playoffs. Everything he’s done this season,
in the fall and even up into the AHL, mimics a career path of a top ten pick,
not the second round pick. He has the kind of skill where he’s trying
spin moves on a random board battle, or trying to walk through 3
to 4 players at once. We don’t really know what this guy ceiling
is because his potential has skyrocketed since last season,
but he’s A63, 205 pound power forward winger who has 55 points in 23 games
last season before coming up to the NHL, where he had two points in three games
as a 19 year old in the Russian League. People thought of him as a bit of a two way forward,
which has been unreal for his development. Again, letting the offensive game flourish
against Ontario. Competition has been a joke. He’s got a couple around
the edges issues in his game. Nothing too serious, but maybe he starts
in the air next year and works his way up. He probably won’t compete for the Calder
this year. Okay,
I just rattled off four forwards here. Where are the defenseman? Okay, sure. This is arguably the weakest point
in the prospect pool, but there are
some guys who are pretty cool. Maybe a little small,
maybe took a weird career path. But of every defenseman San Jose has,
Sam Dickinson sticks out as the most likely
to become that number one guy, and how he might even compete
for the Calder this year. Remember how I said
the 2024 draft was unreal for him? Celebrating turn a shot? Well, ten picks after celebrating,
they got Sam Dickinson, the highest drafted defenseman
for the sharks in over 25 years. He led the London Knights in points
this season, despite the fact that one. There are 16 NHL affiliated prospects
on the roster and two, he’s a defenseman. Dickinson’s London Knights were so good
that they beat Gavin McKenna’s Medicine Hat Tigers in the finals and like, they smoked them for one, Dickinson
scoring was unbelievable this season. 29 goals in 55 games
would be a great season as a forward, but 91 points is elite company. It’s why he’s rated as a 100% chance
of making the show from the NHL. Immortal elite prospects
polled actual anonymous NHL scouts before the 2024 draft, and one of these
scouts had salary any first. Dickinson second. Maybe that was a shark scout,
who knows for sure. But the reason Dickinson rated so highly
is because his skating and defensive game are so sound that the offensive production
is just gravy. He’s six three, 210 pounds big body. When he was drafted last season,
the expectation was that he’s a can’t miss guy who’s able to do anything
and everything you need him to. Well, the sharks might just make him their number one quarterback defenseman
because despite his best shot being the occasional slap shot here and there, he can create
offensive opportunities out of nothing. Handles
and speed from a defensively responsible big body defenseman that he has an argument
for being the fastest defenseman in the all this year, Combined with his elite
edge work and consistent, smart offensive reads. He’s looking like he’s going to be
the defenseman of the sharks future. Oh my God, it doesn’t even stop there
with the sharks. There’s about ten other guys who could easily make the NHL
and become solid contributors without even mentioning they have the best
goalie prospect pool in hockey. There have been some rough years
in San Jose, but I don’t think you can run a rebuild
more successfully than my career has, with the sharks offloading major pieces,
bringing in a boatload of prospects, hitting on every top ten pick
while doing homework on late round grabs. When it comes to the sharks. MacLean celebrating is a name
you’ll hear about first and foremost, and rightfully so. He’s one of the best players in hockey
as a teenager, but this core is building around him in a way
that I haven’t seen done in a while. And if there was any team you’re picking to go on cup
runs in the back half of this decade, I don’t know why you’d pick anyone,
but the San Jose Sharks. Thank you so much for watching. Please subscribe if you haven’t
already. I love you so much.

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If you want to learn more about NHLe as a model: Patrick Bacon has an article explaining his model – the model used in this video.
https://topdownhockey.medium.com/nhl-equivalency-and-prospect-projection-models-building-the-prospect-projection-model-part-3-5ed9e1cff67f

Thank you to @nhldraftpros for the Michael Misa clips

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