CROSSOVER: Breakdown of NL Central chase for the Chicago Cubs

CROSSOVER: Breakdown of NL Central chase for the Chicago Cubs

for the National League penant. Most people seem to think it was going to go through LA. It was going to go through New York, Philadelphia, or maybe San Diego. But the National League Central wants to have their voice heard. And today we’re hearing from the voice of the Cubs. You are Locked On MLB Crossover, part of the Locked On podcast network. your team every day. Hello baseball fans and welcome to a locked on MLB locked on Cubs crossover. This is the podcast we talk about all of Major League Baseball or all about the Chicago Cubs all season long. I’m your host Paul Francis Sullivan. Please, I’m begging you to call me Sully. Follow us at locked on MLB pods on Twitter or whatever they call it these days and on Instagram. I’m your pal Sell Baseball podcast on Instagram. Uh best way to get a hold of us is to use the comments right here on the YouTubes of today’s episode is brought to you by Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use code locked on MLB for 20 bucks off your first purchase. But as I said, I am not flying solo today. We’re talking NL Central. So, I’m bringing in the great, the legendary Samber of Locked on Cubs. How are you doing, buddy? I am doing okay. Uh, considering the way things have gone here the last couple of weeks. How are you? Um, I’m I’m all right. I’m I’ve got, as you can tell, I’ve been uh outside. Yeah. And I haven’t as you could tell. Yeah. Yes. Uh, this is when I’m glad I’m half Italian. Uh because I get the uh I get the the Italian side of my family means I can tan. Yep. Uh if I my Irish relatives have all caught on fire, but I can uh I the the sun’s been good for me and uh I am uh we’re in the home stretch really. I mean the the the um you know it’s all it’s all behind us. It is all behind us. Uh in terms of the trade deadline, we’re in the final third of the season. Oh, before we get going here, cannonballing into the nationally central conversation, let’s talk about the trivia question. Uh, the other day was Ken Phelps’s birthday. And if you’re a fan of Seinfeld, you know that Frank Castanza yelled at George Steinbrer about trading uh, Jay Buuner for Ken Phelps. The question was, Stein Brener favorite and Frank Castanza obsession. Ken Phelps won a World Series ring with what team? Lifelong lifetime DH and sometimes first baseman did wind up winning a World Series, but not with the Mariners and not with the Yankees. And from you shaking your head, you don’t know either. But you know who did know? Ray J 517. The Yankees traded Ken Phelps to the Oakland A’s in the 1989 season and they went on to win the World Series. In fact, Ken Phelps appeared in that World Series as a pinch hitter. So, uh, good for Ken Phelps. Uh, bad news for Frank Castanza. Um, hey Sam, I got to just say this has been a a really, really weird year. We all knew that the um that this was going to be an odd year for the National League Central. It was they were difficult. It would be difficult to uh to pick up. Yeah. of you know what was going to happen and uh I actually thought the Reds were going to be very good this year. Um some people thought the Pirates were going to turn the corner. Um the Cubs seem to be the easy pick, but as we’re sitting this recording so peacefully right now, the best team in baseball is the team that sold at uh in the off season that shed payroll and the Milwaukee Brewers as we’re sitting here. quietly here. The Brewers have the best, not the best record in the Central where some people like, well, you know, 88 wins might be able to pull it off. No, they would have homefield advantage right through game seven of the World Series. Um, from a Cubs fans point of view, how the hell did this happen? 45 and 16 in their last 61 games, the Brewers. Um, how did it happen? You know what? Obviously, the extent of of this stretch is surprising, but I got to tell you, Soleie, uh, on our show, it’s always we’re always looking at the Brewers. They are the team that has really dominated the NL Central since 2018. In 2018, the Cubs, the Cubs had a fairly big lead in the division. Um, won 95 games. The Brewers caught him at the very end. They won game 163 at Wrigley. Ever since then, the Brewers have kind of owned the division. I think it’s been I don’t count 2020 uh when the Cubs won, you know, 60 game stretch. Outside of that, I think maybe the Cardinals have won one and it’s been all Brewers. Um how did it happen? They just seem like they have a really really good organizational identity. Uh they’re they’re outstanding at developing pitching. Look no further than Quinn Pster, right? They traded for a guy like Quinn Pester in uh I want to say it was like late April. and this guy really struggled everywhere. Now he’s one of their top three starters. And then they combine that with just really gritty put the ball in play speed guys offensively with an elite bullpen. It’s kind of like new school old school. They have the the new school pitching development down. And then offensively they’re kind of old school. They don’t they don’t do a ton of slugging. Nobody’s OPS is going to stick out to you in that lineup. But when you watch them play it’s not that surprising. They get hits and then and then you know you’re having a year. You’re also just having one of those special years when you get a guy like Andrew Vaughn from the White Socks who was literally in the minor leagues for the White Socks and since he’s been a Brewer, he’s sitting 373 and he’s basically uh uh he’s been one of the best hitters in baseball since the Brewers got him. It’s crazy. And I I said on another show, who would have guessed that the most impactful trade this year would be Sioali for Andrew Vaughn? Sometimes it shows that sometimes you need to put someone in the right situation. But you made a great point because we’ve been hearing a lot of things with the Yankees recent slide that they’re so obsessed with things like launch angles and exit velocity that they forget about things like put the ball in play, catch the ball, run from first to third. And the Brewers seem to have, at least for this stretch in the middle part of the season, have found that ven diagram of how do we embrace analytics but use common sense? How do we find you? Because it’s not it’s not either or. It’s not a, you know, it’s not a black and white cookie. You know, it’s you you can use both. You can use all the information to make intelligent decisions, but you can also come in and say, “Hey, I would rather have someone who can hit the ball in, you know, put the ball in play, hit a flare, get move the run. If a runner’s on second with no outs, make sure to at least get the ball the second baseman to, you know, if you’re on first, go first to third. And there’s no stats for that. And it’s there’s there’s no launch angles for that. But sometimes you’re seeing what happens is a team can make a deal and trade away players like Devin Williams, which they must have known something and gone. Yeah. And all Yeah. They they and and they found themselves in this position. This is what blows me away. We’re going to get to the Cubs in just a second here, but on let’s just take let’s go to, you know, I say the first real um checkpoint of a season is Memorial Day. But if you take a couple weeks before Memorial Day on the 17th of May, the Brewers were um four games under 500. Yep. and maybe thinking we may have to sell this year. This may be a lost year. They have they’ve gone 49 and 19 since they’re 30 games over 500 since and you I mean they kind of this kind of reminds me a little bit what happened with Washington in 2019 where they got off to a losing record the first few months. They hit the a thrusters and everyone kept saying oh but they have a bad history in the postseason. They have a bad history in the postseason and they won what I think are two of the most underrated deciding games that the game five in LA and the game six game sorry the game seven in Houston both with big home runs by Howie Kendrick. Um if I were the Brewers I would be watching that over and over again and skip the wild card game where the Nationals beat the Brewers right and Trent Gisham had overran the ball. But, uh, I I, you know, everyone seems to think it’s going to be Philadelphia or LA or maybe the Mets. And I I there have been so many token NL Central champions. This is not a token champion. No. Um, definitely not. I mean, the only thing I would say about what you just said is, you know, the stuff that they do, there’s not a stat for it. The the the only stat wins. They they they just they know how to win, man. It’s it’s it’s crazy. And you know, it’s it’s you know, with the C from the Cubs perspective, a lot of Cub fans like this is luck, luck, luck. And I’m sure there’s there’s there’s elements to it, but you can’t luck your way to 49 and 19. You know what I mean? Like you just can’t you can’t it’s it’s too big of a sample. It’s too it’s too much winning. And the other thing, you know, when I watch them play that really sticks out is if you make one mistake against them, one little mistake, they they make it they make it the game. They make you they make you you feel it. they make at the game. They’re so fast like you said, first to third, they steal bases and then they don’t make any mistakes. And so, you know, and they take it really seriously and, you know, it’s it’s it’s it’s awful from a Cubs perspective, but you have to you have to tip the cap when a team’s 49 and 19. What else are you supposed to do? Well, I’ll tell you what I’m going to do. I’m going to go to a commercial. We come back, I’m going to tell you who else the Brewers remind me of. And also, what the heck can the Cubs do? Have you ever decided the last minute to go to the ball game with friends and family? That happened to me earlier this year. I saw the Red Sox were playing the Giants. I was back in town. I said, “You know what? I got to go up there, but am I going to be able to get tickets?” And do you know what? That’s where game time comes in. It’s the easiest way to grab lastminute tickets without the stress. With the money you save on tickets, you can splurge on food, drinks, merch. You know what? I got myself a plastic cup and a Giants hat and a giant shirt for my son. 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They get the zone, they get the seats, and you get the seat view in the app before you buy. So you know exactly where you’re going to be. So you got to take the guesswork out of buying tickets online with Game Time. Download the Game Time app. Create an account and use the code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, create an account and redeem the code L K D O N M LB for $20 off. Download the Game Time app today. Last minute tickets, lowest prices, they’re guaranteed. When you were describing the Brewers as a team that doesn’t make mistakes, takes that extra base and puts their teams basically on their heels. That reminds me a lot of the Royals in 2014 and 2015. Yes. Which I mean they they obviously had very good players on a team like Mustakis and Hosmer and you know uh Salvi Perez. Great. But they Yeah. The thing was their bullpen their their starting pitching was fine. It was good enough. And if they had the lead by the sixth inning, the game was over because the bullpen in both the year where they lost to San Francisco, the only reason they lost to San Francisco is because Madison Bumgardner channeled Sandy Kofax and decided to win it on his own because they hit everybody not named Madison Bumgardner. Um, and Bochi just let him out that final game till his until his arm fell off. Um but but then when they beat the they beat the Mets in 2015, they just took it. If the Mets made any mistake, they jumped on it and it just made them pay for it. And the Brewers are eerily similar. And that could be the solution if you’re a Kansas City, Milwaukee, two central teams that don’t have like the massive, you know, pocketbooks that New York or Los Angeles or Boston used to. Apparently Boston is now a small market team. Um same here. Same here. Yeah. Yeah. The Cubs. Well, Chicago is a little town. It’s not It’s not a big city. Um like maybe that’s the way you have to build your team. Like we’re just going to make teams make mistakes. And the idea of well, they’re just lucky. They’re just lucky. I’m going to talk about this, but I I listened to I forget his name. I’m going to have to look it up. I heard a Yankee uh podcaster talking about that sometimes when you see someone say like, “Well, we looked at his advanced stats and he’s lucky. He’s winning games he shouldn’t be winning.” That should be a good sign for the pitcher to say, “Hey, this pitcher can win when he doesn’t have his best stuff. That shouldn’t be looked at as a negative. That should be looked at like, oh, so if he’s not throwing 180 mph with a perfect curve, he finds a way to win.” And I think that’s this Milwaukee team up and down and why I don’t just write them off as well but they’ve had bad postseasons in the past and say okay fine but uh that that means exactly pitily poo now. Well and the last year’s postseason I mean they had the series one they gave the ball to Devin Williams and he and he gave up three runs in the ninth inning. I mean that wasn’t like it was like a a choke or an organizational failure. It was one guy. I mean, if you took if you asked any Brewer fan, hey, what do you want? Hey, game three deciding game up two runs. We give the ball to Devin Williams. Now, that’s doesn’t sound like a great propos proposition in 2025, but in 2024 2024, you know, things happen in a three-game series. You know what I mean? Yeah. Yeah. And so, all right. Well, let’s get let’s get to the Cubbies because for a big chunk of this year, the Cubs were in first and it looked Yeah. And it looked like, you know, the the Brewers overtook them relative I mean relatively recently in the standings. I believe it was late June if I’m not if I’m not mistaken. Okay. When the Brewers got to first. Yeah. No, it’s they they took first. It was I want to say like just like a couple of weeks ago. Okay. All right. But Okay. Then you then I’m going to lean on you. I It did I remember it did, you know, surprise me when they overtook him. And I thought, “Oh, well, these two teams are going to be, you know, going neck and neck.” And it just looks like instead like the Brewers like, “No, we’re we have every intention of winning this division this year.” Um, I’m going to I’m going to put some salt on your wound here, Sam, but you’re a big boy. You can handle it. Sure. Um I when we went in I’ve made the analogy um that the day after the trade deadline is kind of like that scene that’s in every Godzilla film when Tokyo is destroyed and they have that moment where they’re going through the rubble and trying to figure out who lived and who died. By the way, I can’t stress this enough. You don’t even have to be a Godzilla film. Watch Godzilla Minus one, which came out a couple years ago. It’s a legitimately good movie if you’re not. It’s really great. Anyway, I’m They better give me a royalty from that movie. But, um, that’s me at the end of the trade deadline because there’s so many things happening and they like, “Okay, okay, now let’s sift through the rubble and see who got what and what who went where.” And I remember thinking, “Oh, wait. Where did Luis Robert Jr. eventually end up? Oh, he didn’t end up anywhere.” And then one of the other things I said is, “Okay, how many starting pitchers did the Cubs wind up acquiring?” because I assumed they were going to get two and they got one who I believe was who was in a full body cast when they acquired him. Um I mean they traded for Michael Saraka who’s he’s out, right? He’s done and Justin Steel was already done. Mhm. And Jameson Tyion is I don’t know if he’s done but he’s certainly been injured. Couple of weeks he’s coming back. Okay. And I don’t know if Assad is back yet. Is he back or couple of weeks? Couple of weeks. By the way, we’re we’re approaching mid August. A couple of weeks, you know, when people say, “Well, later in the season.” Later in the season, I mean, Kate Horton the other day had a great game. He pitched really well, but but we have to but and and Matthew Boyd is, you know, he’s still a fine pitcher. But here’s where again, modern baseball can I’m I’m going to sound like old man Sully here for a second, but modern baseball could bite the Cubs in the proverbial took us because I just praised Kate Horton and he did pitch a fine game, but he didn’t finish six innings. Yeah, it’s not like he went seven innings. And my biggest fear for a lot of the contenders, and we saw this with Los Angeles, and Los Angeles got really lucky that first of all, the Phillies got eliminated by the Mets, and secondly that the uh the the Yankees have a sub-zero IQ because that’s why they won the World. And they’re they were a terrific team. Not taking away from them, but they I they they were they they had the favorable matchups. Let me just put it that way. Um, but you see teams get their bullpens exhausted by the time we get to October. And when we start praising people for going five and a third innings, oh my god, it’s a workhorse. Um, you’re going to see every relief pitcher look like they just finished climbing Mount Killer Mjaro. And for the Cubs, I’m kind of afraid of that because their starting rotation is going to demand that your your your relief pitchers are going to have to go two or three innings at least a game for sure. I think, you know, going to the trade deadline, I think the first thing that I would that I would talk about even even more so than what they needed, and this is a also a an older school take, but this team needed a lift. They needed a little spark. They needed a jolt. And sometimes a trade deadline, sometimes a move can do that for you because right before the deadline, the Cubs were in Milwaukee, right? The Cubs went the Cubs went into that uh trade deadline. They lost two out of three for Milwaukee. They were a game back. They were one game out um after that after losing two out of three. They were they were tied going into that series. So they lost two out of three. So they were a game out and and you watched that series and you just felt like this this team as is, they need something else. They’re just, you know, it’s it’s a it’s kind of like a chicken in the egg. It’s very hard because the Brewers are playing great and you have to acknowledge that and tip your cap. But the Cubs have also been just a a 500ish a few games over 500ish team now for like a month and a half, which when you’re trying to win a championship or trying to win 95 plus games, that’s a little bit that that’s a little bit long of a rut. Every team’s going to have a stretch, but that’s a little long. And you just you just felt like they needed a lift. So, forget the fact the pitchers for a second. I just wanted them to make a move where you could just give the guys a jolt. That didn’t happen. Then, to your point, yes, they didn’t get the pitching. And and the only the only defense I’ll have for it, and it’s not even a defense, but it’s not going to stick out as much, I think, until they really, you know, have to get to October and play on the road is that the way Wrigley’s playing this year. Uh, the wind blows in every single night. Uh, the Cubs erra, Kade Horton erra in the mid1s at home. Uh Boyd erra in the ones at home. Tyion low three RA at home. So when they play at home, they’re able to just kind of hey here, see how far you could hit it. It’s gonna get, you know, blown back by the wind. That’s fine. Where their where their pitching is going to get exposed is, you know, if they have to play and at some point if you make the playoffs, you have to play on the road no matter what. And with the way the Brewers are are playing, it looks like the wild card is is the destiny here, which means even if you win a series, you know, you know what I’m saying? So Oh, yeah. I get it. I I I hear you. I was shocked that they didn’t do it. Uh the excuse running around the city is well, hey, no major controllable starters got moved, but I don’t understand why couldn’t they get Mel Kelly then? Why couldn’t they why couldn’t they get somebody else? I don’t know. And and to be honest with you, I was I was uh uh pounding the table. I wanted another bat. I know they got Willie Castro, but I wanted a bigger bat because this offense uh despite still being at the top of the league in a lot of stats the last month, two months with with Kyle Tucker’s uh big slump, they’ve been very average. So, I was shocked. Um it’s not surprising to me that since the deadline, they’re basically playing 500 ball and that the Brewers are are really distancing themselves because because that’s what they’ve set themselves up to do. You mentioned that you you had an old school take. Uh when we come back, I want to bring up the fact that sometimes old school can mean you’re a lite and stuck to old thinking and sometimes it can be smart. This episode is brought to you by Prize Picks, the daily fantasy platform that lets you turn your football predictions into real rewards. Preseason is already heating up and college football isn’t far behind. It’s the perfect time to lock in your seasonl long more or less picks for the 2025 seasons all before week one kicks off. Whether you got your eye on a bigname quarterback or breakout running backs prize picks makes it easy to get into the game. Now, if you make a couple of your early picks, like, okay, let’s have Josh Allen for more than 27.5 touchdown. That feels like a solid shot. I know all about Josh Allen, and my preseason picks help me get a feel for how the year could go. It’s like a fun warm-up for the full season. Will it be the Seahawks year? Will it be the Las Vegas Raiders here? I got my money on the Houston Oilers. Yeah, I know. They’re called the Texans now. Now, download the Prize Pix app today and use code locked on MLB for $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup. That’s locked on MLB to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup. prize picks run your game. Now, Sam, you mentioned that one of the reasons why they may not have gone for some of the starting pitchers was because they were not controllable into next year. And that’s sort of I I’m sorry. I shake my head at that a little bit because you’re saying, “Oh, we couldn’t get the ideal acquisition, therefore make no acquisition.” You know, it’s okay if you have someone you don’t have control over after this year. But you are going for it this year. You didn’t make the trade for Kyle Tucker because you’re you have this oh big long-term oh it will be great in a couple of years. You have a chance to win now. You have a vulnerable Phillies team. You have a vulnerable Dodger team. You have a vulnerable Met team and you have a Brewer team that’s playing wonderfully, but there’s always a team that’s great in the regular season that stubs their toe in the postseason. Hellound some odd win Baltimore Orioles a few years ago who got swept that you if you’re trying to win and you see there’s a potential lane there. Okay, the ideal situation you get someone that oh they’re all locked up for a couple years or whatever. Fine, but what about the not it’s not either or. All right. Well, this one will help us win now. And you made a great point that sometimes, you know, you acquire a bat to spark the lineup. You know, even if it’s, you know, you’re like, “Okay, where are we going to put this person? Let’s just put someone that gives a new jolt of energy to the lineup and takes away an out.” If you’re looking at your line and we got two or three automatic outs, we’ll make it one or two automatic outs. I mean, look, we’re all quick to trash Brian Cashman, and certainly I did this week, but last year he did make a quality trade when he acquired Jazz Chisum, who didn’t really have a position, but they desperately needed a person in their lineup who wasn’t an automatic out. And the Cubs absolutely could have used a living human being who could pitch five or six innings out of the rotation, even if it wasn’t Madison Bumgardner from 2014, and a decent bat who will take some of the pressure off of some of their hitters. Yeah. And it’s like the the playoff system now giveth and taketh, right? Like we always hear about, well, oh, you know, it’s so random now. You never know. Um but that’s also a good thing. like if this I I remember I think it was like 19 I want to I know I know you’re the you’re the you’re the old I’ll know I’ll know whatever and I know I mean you you know way more about me than I do and I take pride in it but I want to say it was like 1964 the White Socks won 98 games but the Yankees won 99 and and guess what happens the White Sox were eliminated that’s not the case here right you you have this opportunity where even if the Brewers win 103 and you win 97 you and you take care of business and wild card, then you get to go play them, right? So, everybody has an opportunity. It’s not like this, oh, well, you know, what can you do? You know what I mean? You you could still go for it. So, um I hear you. I don’t get it. The the Kyle Tucker thing is what made this so weird and contradictory. You you you make a huge trade. Cam Smith looks like he’s going to be a really good player for a really long time. you make that trade and you know all the vibes all all the rumors around here is that it’s unlikely Kyle Tucker’s coming back because as you mentioned the Cubs are a small market little city team they can’t afford to bring him back right um so you got to go for it and and at the trade deadline they just kind of contradicted everything that they did while acquiring Tucker in a moment too it’ be one thing if they were like six seven up on Milwaukee they they were they they were up all summer and literally the day before the deadline they were a game out and they and they just kind of said, “All right, let’s get Willie Castro and some relievers.” And to your point, you made the the point, it does seem very dodgery of last year where they’re going to have a few guys that they feel like could go five, six plus in sittings. Imminoga, Boyd, Horton, they’re going to be really, really stigy with and then it’s just going to be reliever after reliever after reliever. And at least they got, you know, they got Kitridge and um and Rogers. So, it’s going to be those two guys. But like you said, at some point, you know, one of them’s going to have a bad night. It’s the big it’s my biggest problem with people who do the parade of relievers is because there’s the assumption everyone’s going to get their job done right and if one link of the chain fs up. That’s why you it’s old school but you had a pitcher go six or seven innings and then you got two relievers, one to get you through the eighth, one to get you through the ninth or and again this is my horrible mindset is you relieve the pitcher when they need relief. I know that’s a horrible thing to say, but now you have to lift pitchers, you know, automatically at certain points. Kevin Cash and uh Oh, yeah. He’ll never live that down. Well, the best thing going for the Cubs is that if they play if they if they are a wild card team, they wind up playing either Philadelphia, San Diego, or New York, the Mets. The Mets. Then then the in a best of three series you just have to hope that you you have they stub their toe in one of the games and then you have a game through anything can anything can happen. Uh Sam, before I let you go, uh tell me what you uh uh what would be a success for you short of winning the World Series this year? Yeah, it’s a great question. That’s that that’s the million-dollar question. Um, now if they were to somehow come back and find a way to win this division, I think it’d be a tremendous success because I mean, you’re going up against a team that’s 49 and 19. If you could withstand that and find a way to rally, that’d be no matter what they did in the playoffs, if they found a way to win this division after everything Milwaukee’s done, I think it would be successful. I’m not sure how realistic that is. Uh, Milwaukee comes to Wrigley for five in a couple weeks. That’s correct. A fivegame series. There’s a double header makeup. Wow. Um, so that will pretty much be the, you know, the Cubs are probably going to have to win four of those to really, you know, get themselves back within where they want to be. If they don’t win the division, I I think they I think they’d have to win for this to be a successful season. I think they’d have to win two rounds. They’d have to uh get to the NLCS. Yeah. Get to the NLCS. I I think that would be, you know, I want to say, well, man, if they could just win that three game series and then they go to Milwaukee or or LA or whatever and lose, but I I I don’t think that’d be successful with with the year that they had. I I they need to win 90 plus games as well. Um, which I think they will. I I do think they’re going to start playing better here. Um, but yeah, either win the division or or or get to the championship series would be my answer. All right. Uh, Sam, where can people listen to your show? Yeah. Um, anywhere you get your you get your pods, Apple, Spotify, we all we you know we do really well. We have a good time on YouTube as well if you just search Locked on Cubs on YouTube. Um, you know, all the standard stuff. All right. And our trivia question is Cubs related. Only one pitcher in Cub history has ever won 200 games for the Cubs. And that pitcher is better known for letting up a postseason home run. Who is that player? That is your trivia question. and follow us at lockdown MLB pods on Twitter, whatever they’re calling it these days and on Instagram. I am your pal Sully. I’m at Sully Baseball on Instagram and leave a message right here on the YouTubes talking about the NL Central that old school may be the way to win the new school and talking Cubs with Samber of Locked on Cubs. This has been a locked down MLB locked on Cubs crossover. I’m your host Paul Francis Sullivan. Please call me Sully.

Sam is joined by Paul Sullivan of Locked On MLB for a full breakdown of the NL Central and how the Cubs stack up.

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