Tampa Bay Rays’ Postseason Ambitions SHATTERED by Seattle Mariners

Tampa Bay Rays’ Postseason Ambitions SHATTERED by Seattle Mariners

The Rays need 30 wins in 43 games. The math isn’t on their side. You are Locked on Rays, your daily Tampa Bay Rays podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Welcome into the Locked OnRays podcast. Locked on Rays is part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. and we are Kevin and Ulissiz saying we are lifelong race fans who have been podcasting about these race since 2019. On today’s show, individual growth should be the primary focus for the rest of 2025 and we’ll discuss that later on in the show. In a few minutes, we’ll break down the remaining opponents for the Rays in 2025. But we’ll begin with the sour reality that the Rays are no longer a playoff contender. But first, got to tell you that this episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Football season is just around the corner, folks. So, you got to visit that FanDuel app today and start planning your future bets now. To make the playoffs, the Rays would need to go 30 and 13. That’s an incredible place with literally no margin of error at all. Yeah. 30 and 13 for the next 43 games. Um, we saw what happened in Seattle swept and to put it politely, Seattle is heads, shoulders, torsos above what the Rays are are are playing right now. They’re they’re just they’re tighter. They are more of a welloiled machine. I mean, they’re just they just look like a better baseball team than what the Rays currently look like. Well, yeah, when you’re trying to get into a home run competition against the Mariners, Brandon Laauo can help, Junior Cimero can help, but it’s not enough against the behemoths that are Seattle. And really, Cal Riley, who is making his case for MVP. And uh it continues to make me jealous that the Mariners have a catcher of that ilk and we’re still trying to find our way at the catcher position. Pretty much three decades going on now. But um that rally that that that that rally home run the first game with MVP chance that was that was magical. I mean what’s happening over there it’s magical but if you look at at what the race look let’s explain this in terms so people can look at this in a visual manner there are 57 and 62 they’ve played 119 they have to play 43 games left let’s say by the way that’s a large sample size that shows that you’re not that very good thank you not very good I should say uh you’re mid or slightly less than mid Um, and you’re not you’re not even playing average ball. You’re you’re playing be below that. You’re you’re you’re not winning the battle of mid. So, with 43 games left, let’s say again, let’s be Mr. and and Mr. Positive here. They go on another 25 and N because they they did it. So, they can do it again. They go 25 and N. Okay, cool. I’m on that. That would make the their record 82 and 71 with nine games left. Okay, let’s go a little um uh re realistic here in the in the last nine games they they go five and four. Hey, why not? They go five and four. A little bit over 500. That would get them a record of 87 and 75. Possibly a wildcard uh spot with 87 wins, right? It’s insanity, Kevin. They then that again mean that means 30 and 13 that leaves no margin of error to get there man. No. And uh going back a little bit if we do somehow face I don’t think we face the Mariners again but if we were to face them in the playoffs or next year I’m just putting a little footnote here. Let’s not pitch to Cal Riley. Let’s treat him as if he’s Barry Bonds. We don’t need him hitting a home run in every single game that we face him against. And and yeah, it’s tough if you’re a Rays fan. Um that’s why you get 162 games to prove your medal, prove your worth. And we have a pretty large sample size. It’s one thing if the team is struggling through May and a little bit to June. It’s early, but we’re no longer at the point where we can say it’s early. We’re getting late and we’re procrastinating. So, we better hit the books and pull a bunch of all-nighters to get out of this. And so, the number going 30 and 13, that’s just to get into the playoffs. That’s not that’s not taking into account winning the division, which we know is totally out of the question at this point. And if you go 13 and 13, there’s another team that could be just as hot or close to as hot. So you’re it’s it’s a really tough situation where not only do you have to play crazy, you hope that another team or two doesn’t play crazy along the way. And if we’re looking at what happened at the trade deadline, other teams made significant additions that can help them today for the rest of 2025. And I don’t know if the raise really did enough in that respect. Not saying that they absolutely should have because they were in middle lane waters at that point. But when you see it what the the Mariners did and what some of these other teams did, you know, there there’s a reason why they’re going out and sweeping opponents and getting more hot as you get into August and September, late July versus where the Rays are just floundering right now. And with the playoffs, say 87 wins does get you a playoff spot. Not only is that going to that 30 and 13 very difficult because it’s a crazy crazy run that you would have to go on, but it also speaks to the fact that or doesn’t speak to the fact that like you’re saying you got three or four more teams ahead of you for like I mean you you have to be better than all those teams too. Can you what? So the Texas Rangers can go 30 and 13, the Mariners, the Yankees, the Guardians. I mean heck you kind of struggled against the Angels and they’re right there. I mean with you. So really are you really that better? Like I I feel like it took me I think uh eight more games than you did, but I I I’m with you. This team is now no longer making the playoffs. It just it it is an incredible place pace to go 30 and 13 uh to go to the playoffs. They’re it’s done. They’re not going there. And it’s it’s a shame because we have seen the talent that 25 and9 run was real and we saw it and we know that it can happen but to think that it’s going to happen twice in a better even even a better version of it at a more critical juncture with four teams ahead of you. I mean what what do we also believe in unicorns as well? What’s going on here? Uh when did you have your come to Jesus moment? Was it after Friday’s 3-2 loss? Was it after Saturday’s 7 to4 loss or after Sunday’s 6-3 loss or it was uh going into that Mariner series? That Friday that Friday night loss was the my first foot in the Yeah. getting close to the nail in the coffin when and the sweeper hits a three-run homer go ahead in the eighth against Griffin Jacks, which it wasn’t even really that bad of a pitch. I mean, bottom of the zone slider, it’s just Cal Riley is Cal Riley, and you really have to treat him differently than anybody else in that lineup. And and look, and and if we want to be a little bit more indepth into what the Rays have ahead of them, uh we’ll detail that breakdown of the Rays path, which is really not race friendly at all. Today’s episode is brought to you by Game Day Hue and that is the hat Kevin and I are both wearing the Rays Game Day Huegh hats and you can get one as well and they’re great because they make clean no logo gear with team inspired colorways for every pro and college fan base. Now, you can see that Kevin and I picked a couple of different models and you can just pick yours uh as well. If you like the blue and yellow, go for that. If you want to go with the blue and white like Kevin did, do that as well. And they also got gloves if you’re into the little game of golf like Kevin is. And right now you can get 15% off with code MLB15 at gamedayhw.com. That’s gamedayh.com. Let your colors talk because colors speak louder than words. That’s gamedayhw.com. Code MLB15. Thank you for making lockdown on race your first listen every day. Locked on race is part of the lockdown podcast network. Your team every day. Kevin the Rays with 43 games left. They’ve got 22 homes uh 22 home games left. 21 away games left. 12 different opponents. You were saying, “Well, they I hope they don’t play the Mariners again.” Guess what? They’re going to be playing the Mariners at the Big Stein at the beginning of September. Um, and when you break down these 12 different opponents, it’s not easy because these 12 uh 28 games out of the next 43 are against teams with a a record better than 500. Uh, that’s 65% of teams left are higher than 500. Now, you might be saying, “Well, the Rays probably play really well against 500 teams, uh, so I don’t have any problems with that.” Well, currently the Rays are have a record of 30 and 37 against teams above 500. So, not good. And they are 27 and 25 against teams that are below 500. So, against bad competition, they’re just a little bit better. Against good competition, they’re bad. Yeah. really the I mean there are a couple series in there where you hope you hope you can make up some ground. Look, upcoming against the Athletics and Giants, it’s really a tossup. I know the Athletics are a little bit worse than the Rays, but it’s not like they’re that much worse. The Giants are better than the Rays and you’re still on that crazy West Coast trip. So, anything can happen there. And then, you know, as we talked about, the Rays come back home and they immediately face the Yankees for luckily a two-game series. Um, and basically in the Yankees spring training home. But the two series that you know, you at this point, if if we’re going by that 30 and 13 marker, you have to sweep. It’s against the Nationals even on the road and the White Socks even on the road. The Nationals are 47 and 70 and the White Socks are 43 and 75. There’s really no excuse for not being able to clean up against them if you do have ideations of of even getting to 500 and beyond 500 and somehow squeezing or sneaking into the playoffs. Um, it seems like is it just me or does sometimes the Rays get shafted with the second half schedule? I feel like in previous years that’s been a theme where you know after the all-star break the schedule gets um noticeably more difficult at times and I mean some of that could just be you know them playing in the AL East but it’s almost like MLB doesn’t want the Rays to make the playoffs. Yeah. Well, I think in in this case, I think they they have a if you want to if we want to put on our conspiracy hats, of course, uh the stadium situation would definitely be one of those. But, you know, with the schedule being released beforehand and this year is kind of a funky one. We know because of the whole rain issue and trying to, you know, stack those home games at the beginning of the of the season. But like we just said, right now 21 games are away, 22 games are home. So given that and after this road trip is going to be even more heavy that you have more games at home. So it’s up it’s up to you. It’s just that the different thing it the difficult thing is that they they’ve dug themselves a hole that is not surmountable. I know some people right now they’re like the the dog in that fiery room meme of like this is fine. There are race fans that won’t that won’t you know that won’t like this narrative that we’re that we’re saying that they have no shot at the playoffs until they mathematically don’t have a shot at the playoffs. But sometimes we have to be logical and I think like I know fan that might seem an oxymoron to say fans have to be logical because fans is fanatical. It’s it’s it’s rooted in emotion and emotion is not logical. I get that. But I do feel like in this particular case, in this context, you can be a logical fan and and look at the 43 games left and look at the opponents that we have to face and say, “No, the majority of them are above 500. The Rays do not play well against u those types of teams, right? They they they don’t have a shot at the playoffs anymore.” Yeah. And really at this point, if we’re not talking playoffs, there’s, you know, other things that I guess we’ll have to focus on. But I mean, you know, if we’re, you know, trying to look at something, hey, let’s not finish last in the AL East. At least let’s finish ahead of the Orioles if we can. And maybe play spoiler to, you know, one of the other teams in the AL East. And I guess those fans out there that are, you know, pie in the sky and hey, nothing’s wrong here. Okay, you get you get a better draft pick, I guess, if you really fumble the the rest of the season. I mean, hey, notch notch up a couple spots in the 2026 MLB draft. And you can see that player in five years. I don’t want to scare anybody, but this is I guess that this is the type of episode that we’re going to have today. The Rays again, 57 and 62. The Baltimore Orioles, who are last in the AL East, are 53 and 65. Folks, that’s three and a half games. The Rays are closer to the Orioles than they’re closest than they’re closer to the the third uh place in the AL East, which is the Yankees. The Yankees are six and a half games from from the top. We’re 12 games. So, the Rays are feeling the heat more from the Orioles than trying to catch up with the Yankees right now. So again, if if you want to be a logical fan, you have all of these stats and numbers that we’re throwing at you because we’re trying to just be at peace with the fact that 2025 didn’t work out and from the beginning. We we knew that either if everything went right, this team could go and win 90 games. We said that at the beginning of the season or preseason, rather. We said if everything goes right, they can win 90 games. If everything goes wrong, they win 74. Guess what? That’s a 16 game difference. 74 to 90. If you split the difference, that’s 82. This is more kind of the the way that it’s shaping out to be that the truth was in the middle. It wasn’t that everything was going to go wrong. It wasn’t that everything was going to go right. It was you’re going to have a 25 n and run. A 25 and 9 run. And you also had a nine and 25. You had great contributions from Mangum and Chandler Simpson, but you also never had Shane Mlanahan and Hassan Kim was a non-factor. You had good things and you had bad things. And when you look at the breakdown of for the next 43 games, it doesn’t really get easier, man. Yeah. And I’m glad you mentioned Shane Mlanahan because everything I’ve heard is that um setback after setback. So, I would really at this point not expect him to be back in a Rays uniform. All right. Um, and by the way, uh, the Rays face the Orioles on the road instead of at home. And the Orioles are much better when they’re at Camden Yards versus when they’re in another local. So, that’s another bump in the road, if you will, for the Tampa Bay Rays. And uh with the season possibly likely maybe lost uh I guess we have to focus on individual player growth. That has to be the point that we have to discuss. Well, August 26th is officially FanDuel Futures Day. A brand new holiday for football fans who live for bold predictions and pre-season hunches. For just 24 hours, FanDuel is giving you deals on NFL season predictions. So whether you’re calling your MVP, eyeing a longot division winner or ready to crown your Super Bowl champ before week one even kicks off, this is your moment. You can go ahead and crown your champion in August. Uh I might be putting a little better on the Bucks or the Colts. totally uh homerisism there, but you can choose whoever you think will win the Super Bowl legitimately. So, go ahead, visit the FanDuel app today and start planning your futures bets now because futures day is one day and one day only. FanDuel, play your game. Thank you for making the locked on race podcast your first listen every day. We are part of the locked on podcast network. Um, Ulyses with all the down in the doldrums talk about the Rays presently and deservedly so. I mean, just look at their record. Look at their performance. Look at what they did or didn’t do this past weekend against the Mariners. really besides what I mentioned of, you know, not being seller dwellers and maybe playing spoiler and maybe getting a better draft pick if you want to take a couple of games. Um, it’s to me and I think to you as well, it’s really about the individual performances that we can highlight for the remainder of the year and that being a little bit of a springboard going into 2026, namely Junior Camero and his home runs and Chandler Simpson and his stolen bases. And I I think that’s at least one rooting interest that we can follow for the rest of the team or or yeah for the the team if they’re not going to be winning games is focusing on individual accomplishments and accolades like can Junior Camro get to 40 home runs? Can Chandler Simpson win the stolen base crown? That’s what I got. Yeah, that that I think that’s what the the focus should be because as we’ve laid it down on the first two segments, the the chances of the playoffs are not there anymore. I mean, realistically, mathematically, oh, go nuts with that calculator. Um, but realistically, with type of baseball that they’ve played in 2025, it’s just not going to happen. It’s just it’s very very very unlikely that it happens. So, if you’re a fan and you still want to watch baseball and you can’t root for a team to go to the playoffs without any logical reason that you’ve seen so far, well, what what do you have left to root for? You’re just not going to watch baseball? No, I think you should watch baseball, but with a different type of focus in mind. It’s it’s like for for Chandler Simpson and and the Stolen Crown, uh Stolen Base Crown, I think that’s great. I think we should also look at, okay, are his reads getting better? Are his jumps in the outfield getting better? Does he does he look a little bit less clunky in center field? Um, does does Junior get a little bit better with the glove coming in and in in those choppers? Um, and and seeing how that that defense develops. What about Can he draw some more walks? Can he draw some more walks? like, yes, I want, you know, Cammy to hit 40 bombs, and I want um uh Simpson to win the stolen base crowd, but uh the development of these players should be should be really fun. Can Jake Mangum turn it around? Um because since the the All-Star game, he’s he’s he’s been not the Jake Mangum that he was in the first half. So all these little things that I think as a fan you can watch the game with a different intent in mind with a different focus in mind and u you know can Yandi not uh get hurt can can Brena not get hurt those two I think go hand inand with each other so that you can have them uh in a positive outlook while thinking about 2026 and then also you know some of the prospects or recent call-ups let’s see what Tristan Peters can do right let’s maybe see an opportunity for Everson Pereira. Um, you know, which at this point, again, if you’re not if you’re not really going anywhere this year, this is the perfect time and opportunity in a quasi low pressure environment to get him reps, to get him at bats. We have a pretty sizable sample of what Chris Morurell can and can’t do. I’m ready to see a new face and to see if that person can hack it or at least show some signs that that individual has potential. And not saying he turns into the next Jonathan or Rhonda, but you might have an idea of, yeah, we want to hold on to this guy for a couple years, see if he can metriculate through our organization or, you know, use him as trade bait in the off season or at some other point down the line. So, I would think that, you know, pretty much now is the time uh to see Everson Pereira. I mean, you you rattled off his numbers last week of what he’s doing. TripleA, he’s another case of a guy that really doesn’t have that much more to prove. So, at some point, you got to give him the call and and see if he can figure it out against big league competition. And um you know it might be a little bit of a challenge with some of the opponents in some of the travel, but hey, roll him out there against the Nationals, roll him out there against the Orioles, roll him out there against the White Socks and and see what he can do. And the thing is, I would love to see Everson Peda. But Everson Peda is a corner outfielder. So you have an issue here that the easy switch would be, okay, DFA Morell, he’s got no options. and and and get Ped in there. Now, the thing is, it seems to me the Rays are screaming at Race fandom, at Race Nation, saying, “We need to see Christopher Morurell through. We need to find out.” It seems like that’s what they are yelling at us, just like they yelled at us about Alex Jackson. Just like they yelled at us and didn’t work out too well about Sudsugo, about Pat Burl until it doesn’t work and then they cut that line. I believe that the way that they’ve used Morell, first of all, I don’t think they actually do have a a clear plan on when and when not to utilize him. You saw him the other day again, pinch hitting against a lefty, a really good lefty reliever. Um, and that that the Mariners just just received on on the trade deadline. And why? He’s hitting 180 against lefties. you’re you’re clearly not utilizing him in either a stable manner in in a in a consistent manner and not in the best uh uh position to succeed there. So, they don’t have a clear plan with Morell, but it it the the clear thing that they have with Morell is seeming like they’re not going to give up on him, at least not in 2025. So, Oh, yeah. So, wait. So, if they’re not giving up on him, how does Everson parade uh work? either a September callup, which now means he’s not probably going to get the playing time that we would like to see from a guy during September because the the the roster would expand uh by by two players. But then it’s like, okay, well, if Morell is staying and Pereed needs a corner outfield position, well, maybe you take Mangum. I wouldn’t want to I I want to I want to keep seeing what Mangum has. I want to see if he if he progresses. And you’re definitely not taking Chandler Simpson out, right? because although he plays center field, he can also play the corner as well. But then you’re like, well, definitely not Josh Low. I’m not taking Josh Low. He’s he’s he’s a part of the team. Then the the next guy would be Tristan Peters. But the thing is, you brought Tristan Peters because you need somebody to to man center field, at least defensively speaking. So now you go back to well you have to def DFA either you DFA Christopher Morell you you you you say hey Mangum it’s been nice but we’re going to to demote you to AAA or you bring Everson para up when September call-ups are in and now you have a full house in in in in in the clubhouse and you use them sparingly and you really don’t get to see him often which I think is probably what they’re going to do. they’re going to be waiting uh till September comes and and copa and not really get to see the chance because I don’t think that they want to get rid of Morell. So, as a fan, I think that’s the focus is what can Simpson improve on? What can chemro improve on? Can Yandi and can Brendan Laauo stay healthy? Can does what who is Everson Peda? Like these are the things that I think should be f the primary focus now for race fans while watching baseball. Can Chandler Simpson finish the year with a higher OPS than Chris Morell? Chris Morell supposedly a home run god or has the bat speed that is in the upper percentiles. Chandler Simpson no power, no home runs whatsoever. He can hit a beautiful triple the other way on a line. Um, but as far as uh dingers go, it that to me that just like encapsulates the ongoing struggle and frustration of Chris Morell. When a rookie and Chandler Simpson with no pop has a higher OPS than said individual, that’s a problem. For for uh those that don’t know, uh Christopher Morell has a 653 ops. Chandler Simpson with no power whatsoever has a 667 OPS. So that’s a that’s a really good uh little internal race that race fans can keep track of um throughout the the rest of the season. Yeah, I I think those are the things that you need to Can Hassan Kim finish the season uh healthy? He you can put him on on on that side of the on the ledger with Brennan Lao and and Yandi Diaz for sure. But oh man, I I hadn’t noticed that the difference between the OPS’s and Simpson and Morell had started to get that big. Yeah. Um you see a couple points, you’re like, okay, you know, but now it’s almost 20 points. Hot take. Junior Game and Arrow would hit 40 home runs this year and Chandler Simpson will win the stolen base title. Now, I would think it’d be easier for Taylor Simpson to win the stolen base title than Camroero getting 40 home runs, especially if teams opt to pitch around him. Um, I think the math is there. 43 games. I believe Cam Camo can can get eight home runs. Now, I think the and and right now Chandler is at 32 and Cabayto has 35 and he’s in the lead. I think I think they’re both possible to to to happen now between the both of them. They’re right now at 32 home runs and 32 stolen bases. Who do you think is going to have a bigger number? Will Chandler get more stolen bases or will than than Junior’s home run total or will it be the opposite? I think Simpson will ultimately have more stolen bases than home runs from Camroero. I feel like it’s a lot easier for Chandler Simpson to get two or three stolen bags in a game versus again we’ve seen multi home runs from Junior Camero. But I’m just trying to look at it logically of what’s easier to do with the skill set and Chandler Simpson once he’s on base by this. I think by pitch or single um or force out, he has the green light to go. I think you’re right. And I think it I think we would put the green Skittles on that. However, I will say Chandler has been stuck on that number for a while is heating heating up with the sticks. So yeah, that should be the focus for race fans uh going forward. And it it’s a let down obviously because you always want to you know have hope uh for October but I on August 11th I think it would be the logical thing to say just focus on individual milestones on individual growth if you’re a race fan when watching race baseball anymore. There we go. All right. Uh thank you all for making Luck and Ray your first listen today. For your second listen check out the allnew Lucked on MLB game night. Every game, every night, all season long, local analysis brought to you on a national scale. You can find MLB Game Night on Locked on MLB on YouTube or wherever you listen to those podcasts.

Tampa Bay Rays’ playoff hopes fade as 2025 season winds down. Can they salvage any positives from a disappointing year?
Kevin Weiss and Ulises Sambrano break down the Rays’ slim postseason chances, requiring a near-impossible 30-13 run to close the season. They analyze the brutal remaining schedule, featuring 28 games against winning teams.
With playoffs out of reach, the hosts shift focus to individual milestones and development. Can Junior Caminero reach 40 home runs?
Will Chandler Simpson claim the stolen base crown?
The episode explores potential September call-ups, Chris Morel’s struggles, and intriguing player comparisons, including Simpson’s surprising OPS edge over Morel.
Tune in for an in-depth look at what Rays fans should watch for as the 2025 season concludes.
3:16 Rays no longer playoff contenders
6:10 Breaking down Rays’ remaining schedule
10:33 Pinpointing when playoff hopes ended
14:35 Conspiracy theories about Rays’ schedule
18:57 Focus shifts to individual player growth
24:38 Potential call-ups and roster moves
27:57 Comparing Simpson and Morell’s stats

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