Washington Capitals Regression Watch: Can Power Play Save the 2025–26 Season?

Washington Capitals Regression Watch: Can Power Play Save the 2025–26 Season?

On today’s show, which players take a step back and do the Capitals take a step back in the 2526 season? Next on this edition of Locked on Capitals. You’re Locked on Capitals, your daily podcast on the Washington Capitals, part of the Locked On Network. your team every day. Well, hello and welcome into this edition of Locked On Capitals, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. My name is Dan Holy. I’ve covered the Capitals for the past three seasons for Locked On and various other outlets before that. I’m also the host of the weekly show called the Capitals Minute Cast, available wherever you find your podcasts. And as always, I want to thank you for making this your first listen of the day. Today’s episode is brought to you by our friends at Monarch Money. Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code locked on NHL at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. So, in this edition of Locked on Capitals, we talk about which players take a step back next season. Uh, the Capitals, their players put up career numbers. It’s a safe bet to say just based on analytics in history that certain players will take a step back. Which one of those players will take a step back? I’ll talk about that a bit later. I’ll talk about the power play reset that if the Capitals, the players, the team take a step back, if they could take a step forward in special teams, more specifically the power play, that could kind of offset itself. But just to get it going here, we’re going to talk about the hockey bounceback effect. And uh like I said, you took a look at what the Capitals did last season, career numbers, you know, uh the first team to qualify for a playoff spot, the season before that, the last. And uh you know, you could say that it was the acquisitions that were made uh the summer before that that led to uh the great advancement of this team. You know, Pier Luke Dubois, Chicken Thompson, these kind of guys. Um but when you take a look at it big picture, you saw players that put up career numbers. I’m talking Conor Mcichael, pure Luke Dubois, uh Alexe Prous, big numbers. So, that’s the question. Is it sustainable? Let’s dive into that uh in segment number one. And uh when you take a look at, you know, hockey in general, and we’re going to talk about the Capitals here, um that there are players that take a step forward. Uh you take a look at a guy who hasn’t scored in forever and suddenly he’s on on fire, you know, coming going on a heater as they say. um or maybe a goalie who was looked shaky, you know, the last month. Now he’s a brick wall. And as a fan, you’re wondering how did that happen? Um and and sometimes you can’t really draw lines to it. Sometimes it’s confidence, right? I think that you remember a couple seasons ago when I was talking about Mantha that the floodgate opened once he started scoring goals or Ovuchkin a couple seasons ago when he got off to his slow slowest start in the goalc scoring department he started scoring goals and good things happen and I think we’ve all seen it before you’re watching the caps and somebody you didn’t expect suddenly has a big night um or as I talk about a little bit later Alexe Pro a much better season than the previous seasons and then The opposite happens of course as well. Stars who usually light it up but can’t buy a goal. Again, Alex Ovetchkin from a couple seasons ago to start the season. You know, it’s sometimes it’s just being unlucky. I hate to say it because you hate to think that luck factors into it, but you know, pucks bounce off post, roll wide, hit the goalie’s toe, you name it, it looks like bad luck, but over the stretch of an NHL season, things usually balance out. And uh if you listen to this show, I referenced this quite often. Um this is from the HBO’s 247 Penguins Capitals Road to the Winter Classic. They said, quote, “Those who know the sport best will tell you that hockey has a certain rhythm to it. Every shift, every game, and every season is inevitably packed with ups and downs. Teams are never as bad as they appear during their lowest points, and never as good as they seem during their highest ones. The very best teams may not just be talented, but resilient, not just hungry, but focused. Their sport demands it unquote. And uh I think that exemplifies what I’m talking about that when we take a look at the season, you know, there’s highs and lows of the season and then there’s just the organization taking steps forward and back. Um and that’s what I call the bounceback effect. Hockey has the way of evening things out. uh you’ll get stretches where players look like all stars and stretches where they look like maybe they shouldn’t even be playing uh in the NHL. Um and you know why this matters, I guess more specifically for me, is because last year the Capitals did good things. They led the NHL in shooting percentage where it mattered across all strengths everywhere. So you have to kind of start asking yourself, you know, they did some really good things last season. Is it sustainable? Can they duplicate or uh improve on that success from last year? Um it’s going to be tough because are leaning into youth uh this coming season much more than they have in previous seasons. Uh listen, they still have the core there. You know, you have Ovuchkin, Wilson, Carlson, these kind of guys, but you might just see uh players take on a bigger role. think Ryan Leonard, perhaps Ivan Mir Shashenko, uh Andrew Crystal, these kind of guys that, you know, guys that knocked it out of the park at the college level or perhaps at the AHL level doesn’t always translate to the bigs or under the big lights of uh the NHL. And you know, just as an example, we’ll talk about one of the most dynamic players on the team um putting up big numbers and uh and just how they they were knocking it out of the park. Uh what a blast it was last year to watch. Goals were coming from everywhere. And you know, you talk about Prous, Big Alex Pro, uh popping 30 goals. Tell me if you had that on your bingo card to start the season. I don’t believe it. Um you had Wilson chipping in, Dubois bouncing back, Mcichael putting up numbers, but the thing is it’s really really hard to stay that hot. And I listen, I I drink the Kool-Aid on the Capitals all the time. Uh but when I was taking a look at the numbers, some of them were career numbers, and career numbers don’t indicate a pattern of growth. They show that in a one-off in a one-off season that they were good. In order to judge fairly to quantify what kind of success is to have s sustained success. So, say you take a look at Prous, you take a look at Mcichael, these kind of guys that put up big numbers. Uh, can they continue to keep doing that? Because if you take a look at some past seasons talking about big number 43, uh, Tom Wilson’s shortened 2020 21 season, he was scoring on 17% of his shots, way above his career average. Uh, the following season, he’s back or next year after that, he’s back down to closer to 12%. still good, still valuable, but not quite on the same heater that he was before. Um, and a good example, you know, Wilson putting up big numbers, career numbers as well. Or, you know, if you want to take a look at the big man himself, Alex Ovetkin, a greatest goal scorer ever, he’s even had years where the puck just didn’t go at the same rate. Uh, he had a 9% shooting season all the way back in the 2016 2017 season. 9% for Oie. the next year he’s back up to 13%. Um, so when you take a look at it, it’s not just these young guys. It is established players. In this example, I pointed to Ovetchkin, I pointed to Wilson that uh even some of the best players uh in the league can take a step back. So if aggression if regression can hit anyone uh it can hit literally anyone when it hits a guy like Alex Ovuchkin. But, you know, I think what separates Alex Ovetchkin from uh the rest of a lot of other players is you saw that bounce back. You know, like I referenced a couple seasons ago, the his slowest start ever put up big numbers this last season. A huge part of the Capital success, there is no doubt catching, passing, Wayne Gretzky and doing it while missing a substantial amount of time uh with that leg injury. So, that is the big part here. But, uh, when you take a look at it, uh, this is the part Caps fans don’t love hearing, but it is a reality. Um, is will this team take a step back? Um, now here’s where it gets interesting for a team like the Capitals who are trying to stay in the playoff picture. And, um, you know, that’s the thing. You know, I’m kind of already having them projected to be in the playoffs. You know, a really early take here in August. Uh, but it’s going to be difficult because like I said earlier, they’re sneaking in younger guys into the lineup. Um, and the question is who takes the hit when the percentages cool off that uh they’re going to need to see a whole lot more from the players, the younger players that you know, you take a look at Crystal who knocked it out of the park last season for Spokane and Colona. We’re going to need to see that on the Capitals if he makes that team. Is Mir Schnesenko, is he going to demonstrate sustainability uh when we necessarily haven’t seen that from him in the past? Um, big questions. Ryan Leonard, can he find uh a bit of that same uh offensive groove that he did uh for Boston College on on the big team here? Big questions that they’re going to have to answer. Uh it’s going to be an interesting season to watch. Do the Capitals in fact take a step forward or do they take a step back? Uh after the break about three players that very well might take a step back. I’ll discuss straight ahead. Most people can’t name all their financial accounts or even what they’re worth. 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So don’t let financial opportunity slip through the cracks. Use code lockdown NHL atmonarchmoney.com in your browser for half off your first year. That’s 50% off your first year at monarchmoney.com with the code locked on NHL. All right, welcome back into this edition of Locked on Capitals, part of the locked on podcast network, your team every day. You can find me over on Twitter. It’s dancaps2 and8. You can find the show on Twitter. It’s locked on caps. So, in segment two here, we’re talking about three players that could take a step back and surprise surprise, they are players that put up career numbers last season. And like talked about in the first segment, uh, in order to judge a player, it is what kind of season can they put together? How many seasons can they string together with success? Um, sometimes you’ll see players where they have one really great season and then they disappeared. What happened to those players? Um, so it’ll be interesting. And that are that’s what I’m going to talk about in segment two is three players that I kind of am drilling down on that could take a season or take a step back. Now Conor Mcichael, you know, on this show I always talk about it needed to be the season of Conor Mcichael and we saw what he meant for the Capitals last season on that second line left wing and the talk swirling out there is could he be that third line center for the Capitals next season? And I think that he is a legit part of the next wave of the Capitals. Uh he skates well, he plays with good pace, um got good vision, but here’s the thing for me is his career on ice shooting percentage before last season was around 10.4%. That’s pretty average, right? Last year it jumps to 13.1%. Now, that’s not just a little bump, you know, when you take a look at it. It seems pretty insignificant when you look at it. Uh that’s a full percentage swing and makes a huge difference uh in total points. And uh you might be saying, “What are you saying here, Dan? What does that mean?” It means some of those pucks that went in last year might not this year. What are some of the things we know about Conor Mcichael is he likes to hang out in front of the net and score those greasy goals. Uh he is a guy that is prone to being a little bit hot and cold. we saw that he did not have sustained success across the entire season. So, it’ll be interesting to see how he does um next season. And a lot of that, of course, will be determined on where he slots in. Uh I think that you ostensibly could see that same success if he stays on that second line left wing. It’s a bit more murky, you know, if he does move to that third line center because who is going to be surrounded? you know, we could pencil in Leonard and say or Bavilier, something like that. But what if it’s Crystal? What if it’s Miro um that we don’t know or you know, there’s Sunonny Milano? There’s so many things that we don’t know. Um so it gets a bit difficult. I think that uh you know with Conor Mcichael it’s a bit too early but just based on history and the fact that his numbers uh in shooting for example last season uh were down a little bit that uh it could change this next season. And uh the next player I’m going to talk about here as well is Pure Luke Dubois. Uh the player that came to the Capitals uh last season after Darcy Keer got dealt out to the Kings. In return, the Capitals got Pure Loop Dubois. An 8year deal with the Capitals. Well, 8year with the Kings traded over to the Capitals, and it was met with a lot of skepticism, a lot of sneering. What are the Capitals doing? They know he’s a cancer in the locker room. They know he can’t perform. Um, that’s the hard part. And a kind of a touchy one with Capitals fans is I think he took steps forward during the season and a lot like some of the other players uh specifically in the second round of the playoffs against the Canes took a step back and has always been kind of um a polarizing guy in the NHL because people point to um the season before with the Kings and he was just mismatched, misutilized. they point to his stops uh in Winnipeg, in Columbus that uh fans either like his game or they don’t. And it’s hard to hard to to make them change their mind because even at the end of last season, um you know, despite all that he had done, I had heard from some Kings fans that, you know, it it’s not going to last. It’s just not going to last. And the Cavs fans, we you know, we’re still adjusting after that trade with uh you know, with LA. Dubois had a nice bounce back. 66 points careerhigh in assists. But here’s the catch. Uh his on ice shooting percentage was 4.3 higher than his career average. That’s a lot. Um so he did a lot like a lot of other players with the Capitals. Uh put up some big numbers, but you know the hard part like I’ve talked about in this episode um is players that kind of disappeared in the playoffs. 10 games, three assists. That’s it. That uh dynamic second line center for the Capitals U really cooled off in the playoffs when the Capitals needed him the most. Um and you know that might be closer to what he is really at this stage. A solid player but not a 66 point guy uh every year. Um and at 8 million that hurts. You know, some people are still saying, you know, what kind of player is he going to be a couple years down the road? Uh, the one thing that I know for him for sure is that he played well during the regular season and um, you know, I I we can maybe point to the postseason as a one-off. Um, but I think that as long as he is surrounded by great players, I expect him to maintain. But like I talked about with Connor could take a step back. Uh it’s kind of too early to say, but it is an interesting uh player to look at as well. Another player to close this segment out is Alexe Pro and a guy that definitely thrived in my estimation playing um at times with Alex Ovkin. 30 goals, 66 points. I mean, who saw that coming? He never even hit 10 goals in a season before. Um, do you see what I’m getting at with some of these players that last year was the high water mark for a lot of these players? Uh, his shooting percentage, uh, 9.5 higher than his career average. His onai shooting percentage way up and the Ovuchkin fact factor massive. Um, so, you know, I think that some of those things aren’t easily quantifiable, but if you’re skating on Obie’s line while he’s chasing history, um, I think it’s a safe thing to say that you’re getting points. But, you know, like I talked about with the the previous two players, the question is is can he repeat it? Um, you know, can he hit 30 again? But, he’s not going to be back to six either. Um, so it’s interesting. The truth is probably in the middle. maybe 18 to 22 goals, 45 to 50 points. uh still a valuable player on this team and you know this is just kind of taking you know a law of averages right I I think that when you take a look at a lot of that doesn’t mean that they are a definitive thing it’s just kind of points in a direction I would love nothing more than these players to take steps forward and even become better players it’s just that when I look at three players on this team that put up career numbers last year and maybe weren’t so great before that or in recent past that you can kind of draw into question um you know what kind of players they could be in the following year. Um but the thing of it is the Cap’s team shooting percentage comes down which it probably will then everybody’s number dips. It’s not just Mcichael Dubois and Prous. It could be Wilson Stro or even Carlson seeing secondary assists dry up. And um you know I I would like to think the Capitals take a step forward. Um, but you know, it’s a team and I I had quote comments from people online that this team was built to play well during the regular season, but when it got real, when it got real in the playoffs, you could see the weaknesses exposed. They played pretty well against the Canadians and got dispatched in a hurry against the Hurricanes that um, you know, you’re hoping that these players uh, that put up numbers can sustain that. you’re hoping that the young players that you’re drawing into the fold can help contribute because you know I hate to say you know you take a look at Leonard a very small sample size we can’t have that next season we need him to hit his groove if Crystal the team we need him contributing same thing goes for Mero and all of these guys these kind of bubble players so the Capitals can continue to keep marching forward and uh making a deeper push than just the second round that is my hope uh for this team. Anyway, all right. So, coming up here after the break, we’re talking about steps back, but where could the Capitals take a step forward? The power play comes to mind. I’ll discuss straight ahead. All right, welcome back into this edition of Locked On Capitals, part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. The best way that you can help grow the show is to subscribe to Locked On Capitals on YouTube and comment anything down below. In the final segment of the show today, we’re talking about a power play reset. special teams big picture for the Capitals was one of their strengths and at points some of the weaknesses on this team that you think to yourself of course that your team would have won more games had they been dialed in on the power play example or on the PK and if you are an everyday the show you know I spoke about last season that and what we saw in the preseason games in the early part of last season uh was that the special teams was a bit lacking in the luster department if you Um, and I said it’s important then, but you’re going to see that drawn even more into focus the further we go along in the season and in the postseason. And well, surprise surprise, that was the case that the special teams at points struggled. Uh, in this final segment, I’ll talk about the power play that if the Capitals team as a whole takes a step back in certain metrics, they could also push forward if they can dial in the power play. So, that is what we’re going to talk about in uh the final segment of the show today. And you know, you take a look at the Capitals power play. Uh especially LA, I think what you’re going to say it’s streaky uh to some nights it looked elites, other nights it looks like it looks like they never practiced it. And when you got Ovetchkin and Carlson both aging, this is a big season for that unit. Alex Ovetchkin and John Carlson could very likely be playing their last season. Uh in Ovetchkin’s case in the NHL or in John Carlson’s case uh for the Capitals. Uh if for some reason he doesn’t come to terms with the Caps, of course, I would expect him uh to join another team or to get traded to another team unless he voluntarily uh wants to step back. And you know, it’s the big offseason acquisitions, right? Uh Jacob Chan being locked in, that’s huge. uh he gives them flexibility. He can quarterback one unit, uh let Carlson run the other, or they can rotate depending on, you know, the matchups and what team they’re playing. And uh despite Alex Ovuchkin going into his age 40 season, his 21st season in the league, Ovetchkin is still a weapon on that left circle. Um like I say, going into the next season at 40, that shot scares goalies. And one of the things that that was said is they know it’s coming. They just don’t know how to stop it. And that’s kind of been true uh for the duration of his career. I would say that the goalies now I would say that the team’s big picture now are more prepared for it. So in some cases they’re double covering a player, right? But that also leaves other players exposed um to shoot the puck. You see Ovuchkin kind of used as a decoy, if you will, at certain points that everyone will rush over to the left side where the guy that’s on the right like, “Hey, just shoot it to me.” The net the net is just gaping open. uh that works and you know they’ve tried to to mix things up with Ovetkin to not just have him set up from his office that left circle to make the team’s guess a little bit more to make the goalie’s guess a little bit more and I think that he he likes to return to where he’s comfortable like an old pair of shoes that left circle because that I think is where his mind is calibrated to just really drive it home u but I think that we did see steps forward in that but at 40 still impressive, still a lethal threat. Um, but the question is, it’s the forwards. Yeah, and I think you know who I’m talking about here. Stro, Wilson, and Dubois, they locked in on PP1. Uh, Mcichael probably runs PP2 down the middle. Proous should see more time as well. I think that he is a big contributor, but Villier’s back. And you got the kids, Leonard, Crystal, Mirish Noshenko, they’re all hungry to prove that they belong, that they can be contributors. Um, but that’s the thing is sustainability with that entire core. Um, and and you know, who’s going to work the best on the power play? Because at points, it was their strengths, but there were points last season that it was a big weakness as well. So, you know, what do you do? Do you give the vets uh the most minutes to play it safe? you know, Peter Lavlet hockey that I only want to play my veterans because they’re a proven commodity where, you know, guys like Conor Mcichael or do you risk mistakes and let the kids learn, you know, put Leonard in there, Miro, Crystal that um, you know, I don’t think that we need to sell them short. I mean, they they are they are where they are based on the reputation and the numbers uh that they put up. But personally, I’d love to see one of the young guys run PP2 and uh get a real look to see what they have in the tank and kind of adjust from there. Maybe make them on PP1 and just let it play out because like I said, at some point we know that OV calls are going to be stepping away. And a player that, you know, I’ve circled. I really, really expect him to make this roster next season is Crystal. Uh he’s got the hands, the vision, and the creativity to make a power play click. Dynamic Circle it. I could pencil him in like I’ve said on that second line, left wing, look be the X factor. If the Capitals as a team took a step back and in shooting percentage, for example, um you know, uh the power play becomes that safety net for the team that um that they could, you know, push things forward. Uh special teams can keep you alive in a playoff race and the best teams that you know survive. You take a look at the Panthers, these kind of that most of them, they have it locked down. Their PP, their PK are dialed in. So, if the Caps can fix the power play, it might offset some of that regression that I talked about in the previous two segments, but I think it’s going to require different approaches, right? We can’t continue to see Alex Ovetkin exclusively uh setting up from that left dot because at some point that’s not going to even be an option. And I, you know, I hate to say that out loud, but I think that the Capitals as an organization have done the right thing by drafting uh good players that are going to put them in a really good position in years to come that I think they need to peel the band-aid off that you’re going to have if you’re if you’re going to have these big young players on the team like the ones I mentioned in this episode, then you’re going to have to give them some responsibility to prove themsel. You can’t just say, “Well, I’m not going to give you that responsibility because I’m concerned you’re going to fail.” Let them have the responsibility until they prove otherwise. I think that on PP1, you stick with a lot of the veterans, slowly integrate some of the younger players into PP2 and see what they have. You might be surprised, and you shouldn’t be really surprised. I think that, you know, us as people, as sports fans, we we’re comfortable with rooting for the sure thing, Ovuchetkin, Carlson, Wilson, these kind of guys. But I think that it’s time, the time is now to root for Crystal, Miro, Leonard, these kind of guys, because like it or not, those are going to be the faces of the future for your favorite hockey team in mine, the Washington Capitals. It is in time to brace the youth. It is in time to uh embrace making some changes. If the Capitals could change their power play from a weakness to a strength, that could be an absolute gamecher in 2526. All right, once again, I want to thank you for joining me on this edition of Locked on Capitals, your only daily podcast covering the Capitals. And I want to thank all of you that listen on the audio side and watch this on YouTube. You are what makes this show successful. When you’re done here, head on over to Locked on NHL as they have you covered 5 days a week, available wherever you find your podcasts and on YouTube. All right, once again, I want to thank you for joining me on this edition of Locked On Capitals, part of the Locked On podcast network. It is your team every day. My name is Dan Holy and I’ll talk to you again next time.

The Washington Capitals enter 2025–26 facing the reality of regression after leading the NHL in shooting percentage last season. While players like McMichael, Dubois, and Protas enjoyed breakout years, history suggests their numbers could dip as shooting luck balances out. The Caps will need to offset those declines by leaning on structure, depth, and consistency in all areas of their game.

One potential counterbalance is the power play. With Ovechkin still a threat, Carlson and Chychrun anchoring the blue line, and young talent like Leonard, Cristall, and Miroshnichenko pushing for minutes, special teams could be the X-factor. If Washington sharpens its man-advantage production, it may absorb regression at even strength and stay competitive in the playoff race.

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