Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions Today | Best MLB Picks For 8/18/25

Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions Today | Best MLB Picks For 8/18/25

All right, welcome in. It’s Monday. It’s time for more Major League Baseball free picks right here on the Wager Talk YouTube channel. And before I get into it, I’m going to talk Guardians Diamondbacks. We did not bring this one up on Total Bases. So, if you’re looking for six other deep dive game breakdowns, uh we we got to six of Monday’s games on the Total Bases show, and you can find that replay right here on the Wager Talk YouTube channel as well. So, let’s get into it. We’re going to talk Guardians Diamondbacks. And you know, this is an interesting series to me because both of these teams are are very similar. Uh both of these teams are somehow on the fringes of a wild card rate race, yet neither is a playoff team this year in my opinion. Um the Guardians are three and a half back in the American League. The Diamondbacks are six and a half back in the National League. Both just lost all three games they played this weekend. Cleveland got swept by the Braves. the Diamondbacks swept by the lowly Rockies. Neither of these two teams are playoff teams, but both of these teams are still in it. So, no question, this is an important game for both. And I think what you have to really ask yourself here, if you’re going to bet this game, and you’re looking at, you know, – 105, – 110 both ways, depending on your book, uh I saw Arizona starting to creep up uh to – 108, – 110 most places. What you have to ask yourself is what can you live with? Can you live with Zack Gallon and Arizona’s bad bullpen but getting their good lineup or would you rather have the Guardians who can’t hit but maybe have a slightly better pitching setup here? And the more I sort of dig into this, the the more I think the answer to that question is the Diamondbacks. And that’ll be my free pick today. Diamondbacks minus 108. So, let’s get into why I would prefer Arizona here over Cleveland. I think to me, like, you know, I go back to the beginning of the season. I thought Arizona was definitely a playoff team this year and the reason they’re not going to be one is pitching. Uh they’ve had too many injuries to the bullpen. The bullpen is terrible. And then guys like Zack Allen just haven’t been what they’ve been most of their career, right? Like the for the majority of Zack Allen’s career, he’s been either an ace or a very reliable starting pitcher. And he simply has not been that this season. Now Gallon’s been better lately. He’s at least been serviceable. I think it’s it’s you know he his last three starts which are all his three starts in the month of August he’s been respectable uh 3.18 erra 1.35 whip over those three starts and at least he’s going out there every fifth day recently and it feels like he’s at least giving his team a chance in in that game and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does the same here. The Guardians 88 W wrc plus for the season is awful. Like th this is what why I want to keep playing against the Guardians. They they rate out like a very bad team, yet they’ve they’ve found ways to win games this year. Their bullpen’s not as good as last year. And then you talk about losing two pitchers to the whole gambling thing. Luis Ortiz and Emanuel Class that were supposed to be play big parts for your team this year and yet somehow they’ve still won as many games as they’ve won. the only teams this season with a worst WRC plus, which is a great statistic if you’re into to the some of the underlying metrics, saber metrics type stuff. WRC plus is a very good measurement of offensive success in my opinion. And the only teams worse in Major League Baseball this year are the White Socks, Pirates, and Rockies. That’s where that 88 WRC plus from the Guardians sort of rates out right with those teams. White Socks are 28th, Pirates 29th, Rocky’s dead last. You have the Guardians down there with those teams from an offensive standpoint. Now, the Diamondbacks on the other hand, they’re fourth in Major League Baseball with a 111 WRC plus. This lineup is still really good. I mean, yeah. I mean, just loaded. Kettle Marte, Corbin Carroll, Tyler Lachler has been a nice addition. Like, even even with the losses of Naylor and Suarez, this is still a really good lineup. So, if you can get a little bit of pitching here and you’re the Diamondbacks, you should be in good position to win this game. Now, on paper, Gavin Williams is is the better of the two starters. But let’s look at what Gavin Williams has done of late. And I got to be honest, like I I don’t love this sort of setup for him. I I don’t love how things are going as of last week. So, Gavin Williams was starting start really starting to throw the ball extremely well. He throw it he threw it so good that he took a no hitter into the ninth inning against the Mets. And when you’re you know I mean some of these pitcher or some of these coaches at this point it used to be an unwritten unspoken thing like you got to give a guy a chance to get a no hitter. That’s not always the case today. Now sometimes they take these guys out early. It’s a combined no hitter. Like you might see someone take a no hitter through sixth inning through six innings and the coach just says, “Yeah, we’re not going to run your pitch count up. That’s it. Williams was starting to get it to the point where it was like, “Okay, let’s let him go out for the seventh. Let’s let him go out for the eighth.” Well, they let him go out for the ninth. He ended up going 8 and 2/3. He he the no hitter got broken up, but he threw 126 pitches. That’s a lot of pitches for him. He’s a guy that’s typically 95 to 100. He’s usually not going past 100. So, what the Guardians thought was the right thing to do, which I disagreed with, and I talked about it last week, was they gave him extra rest. So they gave him two days of extra rest. So So now they maxed him out at 126. And then they said, “You know what? We’re going to give him two extra days of rest prior to the Marlin start. So if you’re if you’re subscribed to my picks and I have a 5% play tonight as well.” Um we’re rolling in Major League Baseball and you can see that on the site. But last week I made a 5% play on the Marlins against Gavin Williams. One of the reasons I did that, well two reasons I did that. one, he had thrown 126 pitches his previous start. And then two, the Guardians gave him extra rest, which I don’t think is always the best thing, especially when you have a guy that has really struggled with his command. Even this year, you know, he has one of the he has one of the highest walk rates of any starter in Major League Baseball. His command isn’t always there. He tried he throws four or five different pitches. I think he commands the fast ball well for the most or I’m sorry he commands some of his breaking stuff well, but sometimes the fast ball he either can’t throw up for a strike or or gets too much of the plate and and so I didn’t like the the long layoff because now you’ve thrown two variables into the mix. 126 pitches in his previous start and now he’s got like these two extra days to prepare which which is not always the best thing for pitchers and clearly we were right to go 5% against him last week. Uh he only lasted three innings against the Marlins. They pulled him after 75 pitches. He was totally ineffective and he he got he got hammered in that Marlin start. Now if I look at like what what does my gut tell me? okay, he’s just going to get back to normal or no, like some of those command issues that he started to display in the Marlins game are going to carry over here. I think it’s the latter because of sort of what he’s done his whole career, especially going back to last year when he was kind of coming back from injury and he was down at AAA, then he was called up and there was uncertainty. He really didn’t pitch well. He had, you know, his his whip was nearly 14 and he had a 4.86 RA. So the fact that he just that’s concerning to me the fact that he went 126 long layoff got hit hard last time and had no command. I don’t know that he’s just going to snap back right into the Gavin Williams we saw for a couple starts earlier that had his good stuff. Whereas I feel like Zack Allen is a veteran enough at this point where it’s like yeah he might give up a little offense but you you kind of can trust him I think to get through five innings against this poor Guardians lineup. And so that’s why I think the Diamondbacks have an edge because even though you’re going to have to deal with the Diamondbacks bullpen and Gallon, like do you trust the Guardians to generate offense when they’ve been one of the worst offenses in the league? I certainly don’t. With that being said, I think guys like Kettle Marte, Corbin Carroll against a guy that’s not locating his stuff and and maybe leave something out over the plate, those guys will hit a guy like Gavin Williams. and the Guardians, they just don’t have the bullpen they did last year when they when they made their playoff run. Even even though Class A was having a bad season, like you still take that arm out of the bullpen, it’s a weak it’s a far weaker bullpen in my opinion. So, Arizona at home, I prefer the lineup. And um again, I don’t think this is one that’s going to make my client card, but if you had to if I had to pick in this game, it would be the Diamondbacks. And Diamondbacks minus 108 will be the free play. 5% play is up for tonight. It’s been a great run. I went 2 and 0 again yesterday. Um last 30 days 48 and 26. Uh 65% that’s 61 plus 61.58 units. Uh I’m up over a 100red units since June 1st. Uh so we’ve really turned around. It wasn’t it wasn’t a great first five months of uh of 2025 for me. Um we are well on our way to to getting all that back and then some. Uh we’re on a really really strong run for the last two and a half months and I hope it continues tonight with another 5% MLB. As I said, I hit my most recent one which was last week when we played against Gavin Williams with the Marlins uh and an underdog plus 115 on that 5enter and we’re going with one that’s that’s priced right around the pick like even money type price range um tonight. So 5% play is up on my page at wager talk wt.bat /at and there is big specials that are still up for another day on both my major league baseball season and all access which gets you all the plays. I also started the NFL preseason 3 and 0 um for for nine units. So great start to the football season as well and uh we’ll we’ll definitely you know have some football again this weekend coming up. So, check out those specials, free play, Diamondbacks, and go grab my 5% play. Total bases 9:00 a.m. Eastern every day here on the Wager Talk YouTube channel. If you are looking for other free picks, we went over six games on total bases today, uh, all in this format. So, check that out and we will see you guys in the morning.

If you are looking for MLB picks, predictions and best bets for today’s Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks matchup, we have you covered! Our MLB handicapping experts discuss the spread and total from a sports betting perspective, sharing their picks and predictions vs the current odds.

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⚾️ Cleveland Guardians vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview 8/18/25

Game Details
Date & Time: Monday, August 18, 2025 — 9:40 PM ET

Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ — home of the #Dbacks

How to Watch
TV Coverage:

Cleveland viewers can tune in via CLEG (Guardians TV)

Arizona fans can watch through ARID (Diamondbacks broadcast)

Streaming Platforms: Available on FuboTV, MLB.TV, and other national streaming services

Team Twitter Hashtags
#Guardians | #Dbacks

Betting Odds & Totals
Moneyline: Diamondbacks –116  Guardians –104

Run Line: Diamondbacks –1.5 (–189) / Guardians +1.5 (+155)

Over/Under (Total Runs): Set at 9 runs, Over –104 / Under –117

Pitching Matchup & Team Outlook
Starting Pitchers:

Cleveland: Gavin Williams — 7–4 record, 3.38 ERA, .215 opponent avg
Arizona: Zac Gallen — seasoned right-hander leading the staff

Playoff Picture:

The Guardians are 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot, looking to gain ground with this series

The Diamondbacks, conversely, are five games under .500, making a postseason push unlikely

Team Highlights & Story Spots
Cleveland Guardians

The club enters the weekend with momentum from a tight AL Central race and a motivated roster aiming to elevate their playoff positioning

Arizona Diamondbacks

The 2025 campaign marks Arizona’s 28th season at Chase Field, led by manager Torey Lovullo

The franchise featured prominently last year, finishing 89–73 and narrowly missing the playoffs after making the World Series in 2024

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