Will Jaylen Waddle Become The Miami Dolphins #1 WR This Season?

Will Jaylen Waddle Become The Miami Dolphins #1 WR This Season?

On this episode of Finside the NFL, is this the season where Jaylen Wadd becomes C wide receiver one in Miami? We will discuss that in depth. Also, NFL exec takes a shot at Tua as well as other quarterbacks contracts and the drama. Well, it just doesn’t end for the Miami Dolphins. We are going to talk about that in depth. We got a lot to cover. Smash that like button. Subscribe if you are new. Let’s get into this. [Music] [Applause] [Music] Wow. Touchdown. [Applause] Beautiful [Applause] [Music] [Applause] day to be a dolphin dance. Let’s go. [Music] What is good fin nation? What’s good? It’s your boy Reason. We’re back here for another one. Appreciate each and every one of you for coming through for this episode. As you do, please do me the favor, smash that like button. If you’re new, go ahead and subscribe. All right, we have a lot to discuss today. First, let’s start off talking about college football. We got your Hurricanes and the Fighting Irish tonight. as well as at 300 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, we got my boy L. A few things here. All right. Um, Arch Manning. Arch Manning was not really good yesterday at all. All right. Um, at all. And I all these people who had been hyping the Arch Manning up as the next one, etc., etc., man, they got humbled yesterday. They got humble. All those scouts that were overhyping Arch, they got humbled yesterday. And they got humbled pretty hard. Um, you know, I’d been telling all of you, I’d been telling each and every one of you that would listen, don’t listen to these people that are saying March for Arch, he ain’t ready yet, right? All you had to do is go back and watch the Isaiah Bond and the Matthew Golden film and you didn’t even have to watch his starts. You could just watch those and see the underthrows and you see the the the tick slow processing. You could see it all. And yesterday, I don’t know what’s going on, but Texas is lying about something cuz there’s clearly something wrong with Arch and that shoulder. I don’t know what you know and his mechanics were not night were not crisp, were not smooth, clean at all. you know, he’s dropping his arm slot way too much when he didn’t have to. That’s the first thing that really stands out when you watch him yesterday. So, that was a rough go for Arch and and Texas. And I think it’s going to be a rougher season than some people think. Now, you know, I didn’t buy into that hype cuz I’d been watching the kid. All of you that did buy into that hype, I feel bad for you because this another another point of emphasis here. Always trust the film over the name on the the name on that name plate. All right. Always trust the film over the hype. So that that’s what I got to tell you on on Arch. Now, man, I told y’all he wouldn’t come out till 2027. That got confirmed this off season. They came out and they doubled down and said we’re not coming out. He needs all the reps. He needs all the reps he can get for sure. I think Arch has the tools to be great. Will he put them together? That’s going to come out of Sarkc. And what was really what was really interesting to me if you’ve been, you know, obviously I watched a lot of Texas because of you, etc., etc. You know, if you really watch, they were definitely reigning Arch in. They were simplifying that offense for Arch as much as possible, which is kind of crazy because Sarkc had way less motion than he did usually does, way less play action, you know? Uh it’s just you could tell they were vanelling the the crap out of their offense just so Arch could operate it. And remember, it’s not like Arch just got there. You know, Arch was underers last year. Arch been there and that to me that was quite telling about Sarkc was kind of telling you without telling you and all the people that were like oh I remember last year oh Quinn Eurers he’s just getting you know they’re just giving him the number one spot because Stark feels like he owes him. No, no, no, no. Quinn Yurs was was and is much further along than Arch was from a processing standpoint, from an accuracy standpoint, from a mechanical standpoint. Yeah, his footwork needs some work, but you get where I’m going here. You could now yesterday when you saw Arch, all those rumors of, oh, they’re just, you know, giving you his final year. They all that went out the window cuz you saw right away that no Uers could operate that offense at a much much more efficient rate than Arch Manning could. So I think he’ll get better. That was only what his third start. All right. And I mean he’ll get better. That was the toughest defense he’s faced. You know he’ll get better. All right. So I’ll tell you I’ll tell you one thing too. you know, Kate Clubnick, all those people. Remember I told you after the draft, all these people that are hyping him up as a number one pick and I just didn’t know if I saw it. Oh, he didn’t look good yesterday. But let’s talk about some guys that were good cuz there were some good quarterbacks yesterday. And we’re going to talk about one specific here in a little bit that my god, I was on the edge of my seat last night late at night watching this kid. We’re going to talk about him in just one second here. But before we do, there are some other guys I want to talk about. My boy Garrett Nusmeer was pretty good yesterday, especially I thought in the second half when he started to find that rhythm and start to click. Um 28 to 38. He made that beautiful, beautiful bucket shot down the right sideline. Um now he had missed it a few times prior to that, but man, it was a beautiful throw. Um Nusmeer started to settle in, especially in that fourth quarter, but in that second half, I thought he was really good. I think a quarterback who’s going to be available in this class, and we’ve talked about him here. He’s probably my third guy. He might have risen his his his he might have risen his draft stock yesterday. Okay. And that is I’ve talked about him on this channel before. John Matir. John Matir looked phenomenal yesterday against Illinois State with Oklahoma. He was really good. I thought John Matier looked looked o man. and he was showcasing those tools for sure yesterday. So, John Matier, another one to watch for sure. Um, who else was good? I thought Tayen Green was really good. I mean, you know, now let’s be honest here. They lit up a not so good Alabama&M 52 to7. But that’s what you’re supposed to do. You’re supposed to, right? He threw six touchdowns yesterday, right? He rushed for 41 yards. He had a 26-yd run. Threw for 332 yard 322 yards. Sorry. Ton Green did what you’re supposed to do, right? Sam Levit, man. Finn’s rule. How about Jordan Tyson? Huh? The wide receiver. He’s probably the best receiver in this class right now. But Jordan Tyson, I thought Jordan Tyson was phenomenal. the Arizona State wide receiver. I thought Jordan Tyson was so good. So, uh yeah, but um we’re sticking with quarterbacks here. Why you got to get me off uh off topic here, bro? Uh other good ones yesterday I thought were Darren Mensah. Darren Mensah um you know, sophomore with Duke. He was really good again. Was it top-notch? you know, was it was it top-notch um opponent in Elon Phoenix? No, but he was 30 27 of 34 for 389 yards. I thought Darren Mensaw was pretty good yesterday, too. Um a couple other ones, Malik Washington. I Vneil and his Turpps, he was pretty good yesterday. 20 27 of 43, 258 yards, three touchdowns um against FAU, Florida Atlantic. I thought he was pretty good, Malik Washington. And another one that I thought was really good, too. Um and he might be a sleeper in this draft. Now, his team lost, but not because of him. And that is of course Sawyer Robinson. I thought he was phenomenal yesterday. So, um I I thought he was so so good, right? I I thought he was just phenomenal. Sawyer Robinson, he’s a senior out of Baylor. He might be a sleeper for this year. He threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns against Auburn yesterday. I think he’s a sleeper for sure. Um are you talking about Nick Harbor? Nick Harour is a freak when talking about athletics athleticism. Nick Harour’s a freak if that’s what you’re talking about. So, you know, those are some quarterbacks that I thought had really strong showings. Now, I I got to dedicate some time to this guy cuz I am following him from here on out. Holy G Louise, if you didn’t have a chance to catch the Cal and Oregon State game, you missed a show last night. All right, you missed the show. Jiren Kio Sa Patel. Oh my god. If you haven’t watched Sa Patell yet, you need to go and watch the after this show is done. You need to go watch the Cal and Oregon highlights. That is a true freshman out of Hawaii, a lefty just like Tua. And this guy’s dropping floater bombs right in the bucket with flat feet and falling backwards off his back foot. Sango Patelli was one of the most impressive freshman debuts I’ve ever seen. I am telling you if you are a football fan, if you are a fan of the quarterback position and you missed JKS yesterday, Jiren Kawaii, Sak Patell, you need to go watch those Cal highlights. I’m not lying to you right now. This kid is the next big thing in college football and he only going to be at Cal for a year cuz he can get transfer portalled out and the nil money is going to be through the roof for this kid. My god, if you I was on the edge of my seat watching him. He was absolutely phenomenal. He was just distributing dimes like he had opened up a bank. It was unbelievable. I I I I looked at him. I’m like, “Oh my god, here we go. The next generation Hawaii quarterback has arrived and he looks amazing. So impressive. So impressive. Sao Patell, my god. Salute to you, sir. You have got a fan here who’s going to be watching you throughout your every game, throughout your college career, man. I got to see the growth in this kid. Holy gez. So good. So good. Fun stuff. All right. Now, a little Dolphins news here for you. Okay. In case you guys didn’t know, in case it hadn’t come across your desk yet, here I am to tell you what’s going on. There are some new jersey numbers in Miami. Taj Washington is now wearing 84, which was obviously Eric Aama’s old number. Joe Cardona, the long snapper, is took has taken 49, which Ryan Stonehouse had. Patrick McMorris’s 32 number is now gone. It’s Juju Brent’s new number. Kendall Lamb, he’s taken number 70, which of course we remember was Baron Matoss’s number when he was here. Jeff Wilson, he’s taken 34, which was Jordan Colbert’s number, who’s got now on the practice squad. Uh Jamaich Hasty, who they obviously signed as another running back. He’s taking number 37, which was assigned to Isaiah Johnson. Cornell Armstrong is going to take 38. That’s Mike Hilton’s number before he got cut. Our new kicker, Riley Patterson, is gonna wear 47. And Greg Dolic, um, he is taking 85, which was the former number of the recently cut Pharaoh Brown. All right, so we got some New Jersey numbers in Miami right now. Um, would you bet on Oie getting in the end zone week one? Yes, I would. I actually would. It’s a great question. Me and Dougley are going to have our show return this week and you’re going to this week I’m going to be hyping up Olly Gordon. I think he’s going to have a big day. I would, if I were you and you’re a betting man, I would put some money down on that. I’m not even joking. I would put some money down on that. I’m probably going to put some money down on it after we’re done here. I because I just thought of it. I would put some money down on that. Go check out the dive bar. And I agree 110%. Taj and seven just felt right. I don’t know about 84. I agree with that statement. But yeah, Olly Gordon, I’m putting some money down on that. I’m putting some money down on that. I’m telling you right now. All right. now. Yes, we’ll cover him. Yes, DJ Lagway. Man, listen. Everyone knows I don’t claim a team, but if I was going to claim a team, it’s going to be obviously the Florida Gator. I have DJ Leway’s Bowman first prospect auto. I have a numbered auto of DJ Leway. So, I’m invested in DJ Leway. Now, they beat Long Island University 55 nothing. Um I you know what he he’s 15 of 18 for like 120 yards and three touchdowns. Um you know he’s good. He’s a sophomore. I still think he he needs to simmer more. Like if I was DJ Legway, get your nil money and play out till you’re a senior. He needs to continue to develop as a passer. But I like the upside of Legway Jer. Yeah, I like Deral, but I’ve got, you know, I like Sellers, um, Nusmeer, and I might even like Mat better than him right now. So, but I like Aller. You know, I see the traits. I get why people fawning over him, you know. I get it. So, you’re not going to hear me push back a ton on Allor. Um, you know, I I I just I don’t know. there’s just it feels like there’s something there that’s missing with him. I don’t know what it is. Um, you know, I do think um in terms of like his mechanics and stuff, there’s some stuff that needs to be cleaned up for sure. I mean, he’s just not a guy that’s also going to create out of structure at all. Um, and yet he’s from the pocket, but I think his like, you know, you look at a guy like Nusmire, I think Nusmire’s feel for the pocket, awareness in the pocket is better than a guy like Aller, you know. Um, another interesting thing too, right, for the Clemson and the LSU game, guys, 16 teams were in attendance at that LSU Clemson game yesterday. Atlanta, Baltimore, Buffalo, Cleveland, Denver, Green Bay, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Minnesota, New England, the Giants, the Jets, the Steelers, the 49ers, the Seattle Seahawks, and your Miami Dolphins were in attendance for yesterday’s LSU and Clemson game. 16 teams were in attendance for that game. And so yeah, uh it’s it’s listen and you look at that second half, you saw why you saw the traits and you saw the flashes of why NUS is a you know top 10 pick in this draft for sure. So um but yeah, your Miami Dolphins were in attendance for the LSU and Clemson game yesterday. So I find that pretty pretty pretty interesting, right? I thought you guys would find that interesting, too. Let’s get into it. But before we do, let’s go ahead and shout out the sponsor of today’s video. 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So, um, let’s get into this. All right. So, the drama doesn’t end for the Miami Dolphins. That’s just the the the world and and the life we’re living in right now. I mean, that’s just the reality of the situation. So, um, if you guys didn’t see, this has happened a couple days ago. I just haven’t had a chance to cover it yet. Miami Dolphins outside linebacker and coach Ryan Crowe is accused of shoving a family member and looking like he was about to perform a takedown. Here we go. And it gets worse. Uh, witnesses told police that the victim’s feet were off the ground and Crow had his arms around the person. The victim refused to give cops a sworn statement. Continuing on here, the incident started over a conversation about past relationships. Police say the alleged victim is a female. Now, Cam Wolf dropped this document and this from the statement and it’s talking about an officer that responded. So, basically he says that he responded um to a battery a domestic and the victim and defendant reside at the listed location as a family. Today’s incident victim and defendant got into verbal argument about past relationships. The argument escalated to a physical altercation when defendant intentionally shoved victim out of anger. Defendant did not have permission or authority to do so. This touch strike was intentional and done against the victim’s will. Victim claimed no injuries from this incident and denied to do a sworn statement. Multiple witnesses observed the incident and notified law enforcement. Witness one stated that the he observed the defendant with his arms around the victim as if he was going to perform a takedown. Witness further stated that the victim’s legs were off the ground and defendant was whispering things into his her ear. Victim looked terrified. Witness two stated he observed the defendant throwing slaps and trying to grapple the victim before he contacted law enforcement. Witness 2 stated once defendant noticed people were watching, he removed himself from the situation and began to head up to his apartment. The Dolphins then released this statement on the situation. We are aware of the serious matter involving Ryan Crowe and are currently gathering more information. Ryan has been placed on administrative leave effective immediately. We have been in communication with the NFL and will reserve further comment at this time. Not good. You know what? This kind of reminds me of another Chris Forester incident. You know when you started to see that Adam Gase was losing his grip on the situation was when the video of Chris Forester going sneeing. Sorry, going sneeing. I’m sorry. I I I put together sneezing and sniffing there. Sorry. Sneeing was caught skiing. All right. The slopes off a table. Let’s put it that way. All right. When Ryan Crowe was, you know, this what this feels like. This is exactly what this feels like. It’s just a different, you know, a different version of it. It It feels like Here we go again. You know, I had flashback to Chris Forester right away. I was like, “Oh,” after everything I had heard when I was down in Miami regarding Mike McDaniel and everything behind the scenes, I was like, “Oh, he’s losing his grip. Here we go. Here we go.” It’s the first thing that popped in my head. I hope I’m wrong, but we’ve seen players want out. We’ve seen players openly admit they basically don’t believe in Mike McDaniel after they leave. looking at you Ramsay and now you got coaches doing this kind of stuff. It’s just you know like there’s no fear of real repercussion. It feels like you know and outside linebackers coach this is kind of unacceptable to be honest with you. If this stuff is all proven to be true, you should fire the guy. But, you know, I mean, a couple years ago, it’s Tyreek Hill out of Marina. Now, it’s a positional coach in front of a bunch of people. It It just comes off like there’s really no fear of any repercussion right now. And either that or you’re hiring a bunch of meattheads. I don’t know what what what what you want to take on that one, but that is that is, you know, there’s multiple witnesses. It’s not even like this is a he said, she said. There’s like multiple witness to this now. You know, with Tyreek Hill, because of what I was hearing privately when the Marina thing went down, I was kind of, you know, rearing back a little bit and not really going in. And then when the video came out, you know, it didn’t, you know, further indict him. It just, you know, we had heard what was going on and I had heard about the exchange, talked to someone that was connected to the marina. This situation is just like, you know, straight of domestic abuse. And the fact that one of the witnesses says she looked terrified while this guy was whispering into her ear, I can only imagine what Ryan Crowe was talking about. And this, let this be a lesson to all you young kids. This is why you don’t discuss body counts. You meet someone, you like the person, like them for who they are and what you have with them. Don’t worry about their past. Don’t get stuck looking in the rear view cuz obviously this guy couldn’t handle it. He decided to turn into the linebacker from uh the program over here. Absolutely ridiculous, you know. So, I I’m just sitting here like right before the season, you know, like a week and a half before the season. This happened on what, like Friday, I think. Like a week and a half before the season starts. This is what we’re doing here. Like, this is the kind of stuff we’re dealing with as a fan base now. We got coaches being accused of being pieces of scum. It’s It’s ridiculous. But the culture has changed, you know. The culture has changed, everybody. Yeah. Now instead of worrying about our players like Tyreek Hill getting into these issues, he got divorced. So now we got to worry about positional coaches getting into these issues. Shout out to you, King DDG. Enjoy the game with your family. I I think it’s just the life of a Dolphins fan, man. Like, good god, someone throw me a line, please. What have I done with my life? I blame my dad. All right. Um, yeah, Franklin dropping the facts about the Forester. You know, you got to love it. See, that’s a scary thing, dude. Um Finn, you know, Finn’s rule kind of nailed it with what he said. Um, imagine, you know, imagine what Crow does indoors. Imagine when there’s not people around. Like it basically said in the report that he let her go and basically, you know, calmed down and and and diffused himself from the situation when he noticed people were looking. What if no one was looking? So, all right. Now, something we’ve been talking about on this channel all off seasonason, all camp, all preseason is Jaylen Wadd. You know, from the early onset of the offseason, it was clearly evident to a tongue of Aaloa and Jaylen Wadd were making a effort to not only continue to develop their chemistry and their bond, but to really highlight. It was obvious they were going to try and highlight and showcase Jaylen Wadd to some degree this year. And I’ve been saying for months and months, I got a feeling that two is going to try and make him, you know, wide receiver one. And um it’s been something we’ve continued to talk about as camp, especially the early days of camp when Waddle was going off, right? So um the Athletic, they came out with an interesting article. All right. and their article was about bold 2025 predictions for the NFL season, right? Like they had the Giants turning turning the Jackson Dart early, whole bunch of stuff. But they had a very interesting part in that article that I want to go over here. And this is behind a payw wall, so I’m bringing it to you guys. Miami Dolphins, this was their bold prediction. Jaylen Wadd becomes wide receiver one in Miami. It kind of feels like people have forgotten about Waddle, doesn’t it? After a breakout sophomore campaign that included 75 receptions, 1356 yards, and eight touchdowns, how did he not make the Pro Bowl that year? Correct. He seemed poised for superstardom and then things sort of just tallied tailed off. Injuries to him and Tuatong below over the past couple years can explain some of the statistical regression. But with both healthy right now and Tyreek Hill nearing the end of his elite run, I think Wadd is due for a big bounceback season with coach Mike McDaniel funneling more of the offense through him. Let’s go bold and say the 26-year-old catches 90 passes for 1400 yards and eight touchdowns as he officially becomes Miami’s new number one target. And I’m buying this. All right, like let’s look at a few things here. All right, so when you look over the last three years since 2022, Waddle has the 14th most receiving yards. The 14th most. Okay. And only three players ahead of him in the top 14 have played less games. He played 46. Justin Jefferson’s played 44. He played 46. Jamar Chase has played 45, right? Mike Evans has also played 46. Jaylen W has 314 yards over that span of the last three years. Okay, he has more receiving yards than Devonte Smith, Stefon Diggs, Drake London, you know, George KD, George Pickkins, Keenan Allen, etc., etc. And he’s only I mean he’s only about 30 yards behind Travis Kelce who’s played two more games, right? He’s only what 40 yards behind DK Metaf who’s played two more games. DJ Moore has about 104 yards more than him, but DJ Moore’s played five more games. Garrett Wilson has about 125 yards more, but he’s played five more games. Terry McLaren has about 175 yards more, but he’s played five more games. Right now, when you also look over the last three years, when you look at the average in terms of per reception, Jaylen Wadd’s top five. Jaylen Wadd averages about 15.2 yards per per reception. Only Brandon Aayuk who’s 15.3, AJ Brown at 15.4, and George Pickkins at 16.3 are higher than him. Where he needs to start really racking it up too though for me is on touchdowns. Now, another interesting thing too here is right, you look over the last three years, he’s only had 304 targets. Okay, that is the least amount in the top 14 over the last three years. The closest to him at 304 targets is McLaren has 369. When you’re talking about Justin Jefferson, he’s got 438 targets. When you’re talking about CD Lamb, right, he’s got 489 targets. Tyreek Kills got 464. Jamar Chase has got 454. Aman Ross St. Browns got 451. Devonte Adams is 496. Mike Evans has more targets than him at 373. Almost 70 more targets and he’s played the same amount of games. They both played 46. Jamar Chase has played one less game and he has 150 more targets than Jaylen Waddle. Travis Kelce has 102 more targets. DK Metaf has about 64 more targets over the last three years. DJ Moore has 90 more targets over the last three years. Garrett Wilson has 165 more targets over the last three years. And again, he’s only what 135 more yards than Jaylen Wadd. when you act like that’s the thing all of these guys were naming Justin Jefferson CD Lamb AJ Brown Jamar Chase Aman Ross St. Brown right Terry Mcccluren Garrett Wilson DK Metaf did they all have a Tyreek Hill that they got to compete for targets and receptions with? No, they didn’t. Nowhere near that. The closest one is what? Jamar Chase and T. Higgins is not in the same stratosphere as Tyreek when Tyreek is fully healthy. I think we can all agree with that. What Jaylen Wadd does need to clean up though, and he’s been working on it this year. We’ve seen in the offseason, the thing I’ve noticed through camp when I was there and just through talking to people, his hands have been a lot better this year, too. Um, you know, the work it’s starting to the work he’s been putting in on trying to better his hands is starting to show off a little bit cuz his drop rate, you know, 9.4 last year and 8.6 the year before and then 10.3 in 2022. Not great. He has a career drop rate of about like 9%. Just to put you that in perspective, you look at a guy like Tyreek Hill, his drop percentage about 6.6%. Now, he led the league in drops in 2023, but his drop percentage was about 7.5%. Now, where Jaylen Wadd has proven to be better than Tyreek Hill, and this is going to I don’t think this might shock people because of how Tyreek is built. I don’t know. But at contested, when you look at their contested catch rate, Jaylen Wadd has been much much much better in terms of contested catch percentage than Tyreek Hill. Right? So last year he was 50%. The year before that he was 42.9. As a rookie he was 70.6 on contested catch rate. All right. Tyreek Hill has never posted a higher contested catch percentage than 59.1, and that was back in 2018. His contested catch percentage last year was 40. The year before that was 30.4. In 2022 was 50. In 2021, it was 28.6. In 2019, it was 20%. Tyreek Hill has just not offered you a lot at the catch point when it’s been contested. Wadd’s worst year was 2022. It was 22.7, but for the rest of his career, 70.6, 42.9, and 50. So, he has a career contested catch rate of 43.9. You look at um Tyreek, it’s 42, but the last couple years, Jaylen Wall has been much better at the contested at contested catches. So, um, and you know, I mean, in 2022, their first year where Jaylen Waddle, that year that was referenced in the Athletic, when Jaylen Waddle was targeted, quarterbacks had 119.2 passer rating when they targeted him that year. Just to put in perspective, in 2022, Tyreek Hill when he was targeted 97.8. Now, in 2023, it was a 120.2 for Tyreek Hill. But going back to that year athletic referenced where we all thought, okay, here we go. The one two punch is ready to go. Right. So Jaylen Waddle, man, I I think the tools are there. The money is obviously there with the expectation and it’s just going to come down to targets. Is he going to get the targets? Because that’s going to be an interesting thing, too. When Tyreek does leave, his target share is going to obviously go up. And how is Jaylen Waddle going to be able to take on that kind of target share, right? So, cuz I mean, you look at Jaylen Wadd and man, the the thing that needs to get up there is obviously the drops, but also he needs to find the end zone more. I think that was what was really encouraging about 2022. He built off 2021 where he had six touchdowns and he had eight and we’re like, “Okay, here we go. Right here we go. We’re going to finally see this kid start to get it together in terms of scoring touchdowns. And it just hasn’t turned into that. We need him to be more productive in the red zone for sure. There’s no no doubt whatsoever in my mind about that. But I I think Jaylen Wadd, it’s been something I’ve been talking about. I think you’re going to see a concentrated effort for sure, you know, and last year, you know, he only had 83 targets last year. The year before that, he only had 104. So, if you look at the last two years, you know, he hasn’t even had 200 targets over the last few years because of injuries, etc. So, we got to get that target share back up. We got to remind people what we got with Jaylen Wadd because the kid’s special. just needs to be utilized better. And I would love love love to see McDaniel run more of the offense through him. I think it’s time for him to take on that kind of a workload for real. All right, 110%. So, um, finally here, an interesting article from the Athletic going over quarterback money. Okay, this is a and there’s a shot at to a tongue belo in there and we got to get there. So, let’s read this. All right, let’s go over. So, again, behind the payw wall at the Athletic, but I got it for you. Why? Explosion of NFL quarterback contracts has drastically altered how teams build rosters. The NFL salary cap is a zero- sum game. It could be man manipulated, of course, but only to a point. If a team spends money on player A, that means player B might be out of luck. Consider the Cincinnati Bengals, who aren’t typically as flexible as other teams when it comes to playing cap gymnastics. When they decided to give player a quarterback Joe Burrow a top of the market deal, they did so knowing sacrifices would have to be made on the rest of the roster. That’s the reality of the NFL we live in right now, right? Um players B and C is safety um Jesse Bates and running back Joe Mixon were no longer feasible parts of Cincinnati’s longterm plans. The reality of the situation, right? Okay. It’s not exactly that simple. It really isn’t. Um, but the idea is that if salary cap is a pie, the bigger the piece handed out to one player, the less there is for everyone else, 110%. Right? Lately, NFL quarterbacks are getting bigger and bigger helpings of that pie is what it is. It’s going up. Their market has exploded over the past few years and has changed the way teams construct their rosters. These deals for the league’s most visible and popular players have accelerated at a faster rate than the NFL salary cap has gone up. And that in turn puts immense pressure on front offices to deliver a winning product despite having more limited resources to build around the quarterbacks. And here’s the most staggering thing. When you analyze the data, there is shockingly little correlation between paying a top of the market quarterback and actually winning games, proving teams are very much still learning how to navigate this evolving landscape. The athletic studied quarterback contracts from 2011 to 2025, starting with the collective bargaining agreement that implemented the rookie wage scale to try to better understand these trends. From there, we analyzed them to as it relates to those contracts to help determine whether the booming quarterback contracts paid off in well what else wins. It’s counterintuitive to the narrative that you need a franchise quarterback to be a Super Bowl contender. A high-ranking team executive who was granted anonym anonymity so he could speak openly about roster building tactics tactics told the Athletic after he evaluated the data. It’s more about the sum of parts. Is that true in all cases? Maybe not. Patrick Mullen’s value to the Kansas City Chiefs is probably immeasurable, but most quarterbacks aren’t mome believe winning requires a baseline of quarterback excellence. I’m of the mindset that if they have the quarterback, you have to pay them. A general manager said you have to keep them happy. That’s fair and logical, but is it antiquated thinking? Should teams be more willing to let their quarterbacks walk if they truly aren’t special? There’s so much that goes into these answers, but it does make you wonder if teams will reconsider their approach or if ownership will ever exercise the patience to allow such a drastic pivot. Before we figure out what comes next for NFL teams, we must first explore what came first. How did we get here? for comparing quarterback contracts over time. That’s not easy. As NFL front offices have become increasingly creative in manipulating the cap. Teams like the Eagles have PhDs in hiding money in future years and to try to maximize windows. Bonuses, void years, and restructures are all tools they can use to play cap gymnastics, and that makes comparison complicated. So, for our purposes, we’re going to zero in on the average annual of a contract when looking into percentage of cap it consumes. Take Dak Prescott. He signed a 4-year 240 million extension in 2024. That’s 60 million a year. So even though his actual cap hit this season is only 50.5 million, for the sake of comparison, we’re going to maintain that 60 million figure to say contract takes up 21 a.5 of% of the 279.2 million of cap in 2025. So league executive surveyed the athletics agreed annual average in the purest way to study contracts for without having to account for cap creativity. So these are the highest paid quarterbacks that they put it out here, right? Dak at 60, Josh and it’s on the annual average at 55, Joe Bur at 55, Lawrence at 55, Jordan Love at 55, two at 53.1, Jared Goff at 53, Brock Perie at 53, Herbert at 52.5, and Lamar Jackson at 52. By doing so, it by doing it this way, we can compare numbers across generations. NFL legends Tom Brady and Payton Manning led the league in 2011 at$18 million annually which was less than a third of what Prescott, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, and Jordan Love are earning in 2025. Brady and Manning each accounted for 14.9% of the 120.3 million cap that season, while Allen, Burrow, Lawrence, and Love are tied for second at 19.7% in 2025. So there you go, a 5% raise for second place. Those percentages are crucial data point and we’ll continue to dive into them. However, if you put the percentages aside for a moment, the growth of quarterback contracts becomes more about a study of inflation. Drew Brees was the first $20 million quarter dollar quarterback in 2012. Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr became the first to hit the $25 million range in 2027, detailing just how deliberate of a rise there was in the previous decade. Aaron Rogers and Matt Ryan hit the $30 million mark in 2018. That’s when the spike started. Look at this. the meteoric rise of modern NFL and NFL quarterback contracts. Look at this. Look at it rise. 2011 18, right? This is highest paid. 20 20 2012 is 20 2013 to 22 2014 22 2015 22. So it stays steady there. And then look at the explosion. Starts with 24.6 26 then 27 then 33.5 then 35 then 45 then 45 then 50.3 then 55 now it’s at 60 I mean this has been you look at it the big leap really started in what 17 to 18 it went up 6.5 million whereas from 16 to 17 it went up about 2.4 4 million and it was staying steady from 2011 to 2015. It had only gone up four 4 million basically over 5 years. Now look at where you are from 2016 to 2021 over 5 years. It went from 24.6 million to 45 million over th this over this six years. Like it’s crazy. If you want to just go over to 5 years again, it went up to 45 million. That That’s nuts. You got a 5year increase of $4 million from 2011 to 2015. Then from 2016 to 2021, you’ve got or even 2020 because that’s when the the 45 hit. From 16 to 20, you’re talking about a almost $21 million increase. That is craziness. Russell Wilson jumped to 35 million in 2019. Mahomes soared to 45 million 2020. Rogers launched the $50 million club in 2022. And there are now 11 quarterbacks in that upper echelon. Prescott is still the only player averaging north of 55. What while it’s real interesting to see the rise of pure salary, it’s percentages that tell the real story. It’s almost hard to believe now. It really is. But just 14 years ago, there were only seven quarterbacks who took up at least 10% of the couch space, including Sam Bradford on his rookie contract prior to the CBA. Five years later, a whopping 23 quarterbacks took up at least 10% of the cap based on their annual average. Those numbers can be traced to a few factors. A salary cap that has risen by at least 10 million for the third consecutive year, teams comfortably under the new CBA, and a rising importance of the passing game with stricter rules in place to protect quarterbacks, which yielded bigger deals through 2018. The sweet spot for the high-end quarterback was about 13 to 15% of the cap. There were exceptions of course with Rogers topping out at 18.9% in 2018, but the majority of QBs who ranked in the top 10 in average annual a annual value were 13 to 15 range. We started to see big jumps in 2019, however, as multiple quarterbacks eclipsed 17% for the first time with Wilson, Rothosberger, Goff, Rogers, and Wentz all eclipsing that. And again, you see the salary is just the percentage rising. And now we’re at like I mean you go back we’re at 14.95% was the average percentage of cap consumed by the highest value quarterback in 2011. Now the highest takes up about 21.49 but we had peaked at almost 25%. In 2021 it was 24.66%. So it’s got gone up 10% in about 10 years and now it’s dipping down a little bit but we’re still u almost eight you know almost 7% higher. That’s when the game of contractual leaprog began. Wilson crashed in an after cashed in after a contentuous round of negotiations while Goff and Wentz were rewarded rewarded immediately upon extension eligibility. Rossberger also got a raise to keep up with the market. Although similarly aged peers bra peers like Brady, Manning, Breeze, and Philip Rivers remained in the positions middle class. In many ways, the NFL is hardly league based on um Meritci and that began to bleed into quarterback contracts. Mahomes reset the standard in 2020 with his 10-year $450 million pack as the average annual val value jumped to 22.7% of the 198.2 2 million cap that year. Deshun Watson ranked second by historic margin and it’s been the only year when the highest paid quarterback was at least 2% points clear of the second place quarterback and Mahomes had a 3.02% cushion. So, and it’s become the norm. I mean, number of quarterback contracts topping 17% of the cap annually, you know, it was two back in 2011. Now, in 2024 was 13 and this year it’s 11. Mahomes and Watson were the first to eclipse the 19% threshold in 2020. Nine players crossed that mark in 2022 when it was invoked for quarterbacks to join the 40 million club. I mean, it’s just crazy when you look at the money. Um, the sweet spot since 2022 has jumped into the 20 23% neighborhood. That marked a spike of 7 to 8% from 2018 based on the 20 sorry $255.4 million salary cap in 2024. That’s about an extra 19 million in cap resources devoted to the starting quarterback. As you can imagine, the rise has come at the expense of other positions. There probably should have been a lesson learned in 2022. The Packers, Broncos, Cardinals, and Browns employed the four highest paid quarterbacks this season. All four teams finished with losing records and missed the playoffs. The Packers were understandably clinging to the end of the Rogers era, while the Denver Broncos and Cleveland Browns acquired their veterans in trades and conceded all leverage in contractual negotiations. The Cardinals were at an organizational cross roads and banking on Murray to steady the ship. To be fair, 2022 acted more of a cautionary tale than the rule. Among the 20 highest paid quarterbacks that year, only seven made the playoffs with Mahomes winning the Super Bowl. 11 of the 20 finished below 500, but the overall data is actually stunning. Let’s expand the study to the 20 highest paid quarterbacks each season from 2011 to 2024. So that’s 20 QBs per season for 14 seasons. Out of those 280 samples, 118 of those quarterbacks made the playoffs, while 117 finished below 500 and missed the postseason, a basically 50/50 coin toss. If you’re thinking those numbers aren’t weighted down by the bottom of the group, you’d be wrong. Let’s split them into two groups, the high-end contracts and the middle class in the following table. So, um, the high class is ranked in the top 10 in annual average value, and middle class is ranked 11 to 20. So you look at this high end cap 60 made the playoffs midcap 58. Missed the playoffs with a losing record 58 in the high 59 in the mid. Reach conference championship game 18 in the high 17 in the mid. Reach the Super Bowl nine in the high, eight in the mid. Won the Super Bowl, four in the high, five in the mid. Every measure of team success or failure was nearly identical. The conclusion, of course, is that while the quarterback matters, he’s never the sole factor. Let’s go back to Burrow and the Bengals. They reached the Super Bowl in 2021 and the AC championship in 2022 when Burrow was still playing on his rookie contract, but they haven’t qualified for the playoffs since he signed his 5-year $275 million extension 2023. Burrow led the NFL in completions, attempts, yards, and touchdowns last season when he finished fourth in MVP voting. But the Bengals missed the playoffs, losing four games when they scored at least 33 points. He is one of the elite he’s one of been one of the elite quarterbacks of his generation, so it was an easy choice to pay him as such. But with that contract on the books, the pressure ratcheted up for the organization to draft well and develop the rest of the roster. And so far, at least it hasn’t made it work. You’ve seen what it does to their depth. An NFL executive said it puts a premium on their drafts. The Chiefs have set the standard as a modern-day dynasty, but they’re not dealing with a quarterback contract boom in the way. Not anymore, at least. Mahomes’ deal has since become outdated, ranking 15th in annual average salary. He’s behind Watson, who won’t play this season with a twice torn Achilles and tied with Kirk Cousins, who is the Atlanta Falcons backup. But unlike the Bengals, the Chiefs have drafted and developed well, building a strong defensive foundation for much of their recent stretch of dominance. Even still, the Chiefs had made sacrifices, none bigger than trading superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill in the middle of his prime. But they also had to let cornerback Javarius Ward walk in free agency, and they traded Legarius Sneed among other examples. Mahomes is the kind of anomaly because their defense has played really well and they’ve drafted well, another executive said, but they haven’t been able to keep his weapons. There’s a touch of common sense involved here, too. Prescott, Lawrence, and to a tongue below all ranked in the top five in annual average value in 2024. All got hurt, and each team had a losing record, but the margin for error evaporated with their injuries, and those teams flawed rosters were exposed. Just this past season, the Dallas Cowboys and Mike McCarthy split when they couldn’t agree on contract terms. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars fired head coach Doug Peterson and Trent Belkkey. It’s worth noting, too, that no team since 2011 has won a Super Bowl with one of the league’s two highest paid quarterbacks on the roster. In fact, 2011 New York Giants in the 2020 choose were the only teams to win a Super Bowl with a top five paid quarterback. Just 13 teams over 14 years have even reached the conference championship game. So, what’s next? Prescott is the only quarterback north of 20% of his team’s cap this season. So, the numbers are currently down. However, Allen and Perie are the only quarterbacks in the top 15 who have secured new deals in 2025, so it’s likely more circumstantial than reactionary. Still, teams are paying attention to these trends. They’ve seen the Chiefs’ vulnerabilities and the Bengals and Cowboys weaknesses. They’ve wondered if the 49ers will fall into a similar valley. Maybe not in 2025, but in two and three years when Pertie’s numbers balloon. And frankly, teams are skeptical of skeptical of the contracts handed out to quarterbacks like Lawrence, Tongue, and Love. QBs have yet to prove themselves in pivotal moments. quote, “Now we’re paying guys just to pay guys.” So, I would recommend for you to keep reading, if you have a chance, keep reading that article, go over to athletic. But, I mean, you see it right there, the numbers. I mean, now we’re paying guys just to pay guys. You know, they even talk about, you know, Baker Mayfield a little bit bit in and that. And, you know, this is something we’ve talked about since back when me and EM Dolphin fan were on the Tuesday night panel, you know. Um, it it’s it’s the way that the market is ballooning right now. It’s kind of crazy. But when you break down the numbers, it doesn’t matter if you have a top 10 or top 20 paid guy. I mean, look at what we just went over some of those staggering numbers, right? Made playoffs. Top 10 paid quarterbacks or since 20 um since 2014, 60 guys being paid from the 11 to 20th range, 58. you know, missed playoffs with a losing record. Top 10 quarterbacks, 58 since 2014. Um, and 59 in the middle, right? Reach conference championship game, 18 in the top 10, eight in the middle. One Super Bowl, four in the top 10, five in the middle. Now, what is interesting that only two quarterbacks in that span that were being paid top five guys even won the Super Bowl, right? And that being obviously Eli and Patrick Mahomes and you see right now too a tongue of Aaloa he’s what sixth paid highest paid you know Goff and Birdie are what 100,000 less in terms of annual average. Now again what really matters is the actual cap number and the guaranteed money handed out and all that kind of stuff. But, you know, I don’t agree with the whole we’re paying guys just to pay guys. I mean, Tua had come off his first healthy season and he led the league in passing. We were kind of stuck there. You know what I mean? It’d be one thing if he didn’t lead the league in passing cuz if he didn’t lead the league in passing, you would have had a lot more leverage. right now. What is crazy is like when you got guys like Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love being paid 55 plus million, you know, like I don’t think Dax should be making 60. You know, I think Lamar Jackson being 52 and lower than a lot of these guys is that’s going to get corrected soon for sure. But, you know, I look at we’re paying guys just to pay guys is when we start getting into like Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love. You know, like Trevor Lawrence clearly isn’t the dude. Jordan Love won one playoff game and what has he done since? I mean, I, you know, as Dolphin fans, at least we can hang our hat on, okay, to is the best passer hands down we’ve had since Dan Marino. First Pro Bowl quarterback in 30 years for the Dolphins. I mean, you know, led the league in passing. He’s led the league in completion percentage, right? He’s led the league in pass rating. Yeah, he doesn’t have the playoff win, but we can hang our hat on that. Trevor Lawrence, you know, not good. But Jordan Love and Trevor Lawrence have playoff wins. Even if those were team effort playoff wins, you know, it’s kind of we’re falling into the well wins aren’t a quarterback stat, but they’re paying quarterbacks for playoff wins. Like, it is a stat. So, you know, and the other thing, too, is when you’ve had the AFC basically dominated by the Chiefs, it’s been kind of hard to gauge. You know, if it was a much more wide open AFC, we could gauge what these guys value is much much better. But, you know, look at Josh Allen, high second highest paid quarterback. And, you know, he can’t get past Patrick Mahomes. So, Jaylen Herd’s going to get paid though. I’ll tell you that much. So, anyways guys, do me the favor. Smash the like button. Subscribe if you are new. We got a lot coming this week. Tuesday, we’re going to be doing the preseason roundt. Wednesday, me and Doug’s show. It’s looking like we’re going to return on Wednesday. So, be out on the lookout for the debut of the starting lineup. We got a lot coming your way. Smash that like button, subscribe if you are new. I will check you guys out on the next one. Until then, you already know what time it is. fins up all day, every day. Appreciate each and every one of you and I’ll see you on the next one.

On this episode of Phinside The NFL, Reason covers the latest news and rumors revolving around the Miami Dolphins as they prepare to open their season on the road next week against the Indianapolis Colts!

The drama doesn’t end for the Miami Dolphins as a coach finds himself in hot water with some troubling allegations!

Is this the year Waddle takes the reigns as WR1 in Miami?

An NFL executive throws a shot at Tua and other QBs current contracts!

Plus, we’ll discuss the first weekend of College Football and more!

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