3 Reasons Why the Cleveland Browns WILL BEAT The Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1

I’ve got three reasons why I’m willing to guarantee that the Browns beat the Bengals in week one. We’ll talk about it coming up on the Locked Ons podcast. [Music] You are Locked on Browns, your daily Cleveland Browns podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. What’s up, Dogpound? Spencer German, your host of the Lockdown Browns podcast. I’m proudly covering your Cleveland Browns each and every single day in the land and on the road. I’ve got three reasons why the Browns will beat the Bengals in week one. I know it sounds bold. We’re talking about a three and 14 Browns team from a year ago, but I think that it’s bound to happen here week one of the season. I’ll explain why. And I do want to thank you for being on every day with the Lockdown Brunts podcast, making us your first listen every single day. Remember, you can find Cleveland Browns content with Locked On Browns every week, Monday through Friday, guaranteed. And today’s episode is brought to you by Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, use code locked on NFL for $20 off your first purchase. And reason number one why I think that the Browns have a chance of beating the Bengals this weekend is is just it revolves around the idea that week one in the NFL is oftent times sort of just a fluke. It’s it’s a weird week. Teams aren’t really sure fully of their identity. They’re trying to sort of iron things out. There’s there’s a lot of unknowns that come in week one of the season. And so, while I I agree that this Browns season isn’t necessarily going to be some major success that ends with, you know, parades and triumph and excite like I I I’m I’m on I’m in that same boat. Like I think they I I’ve I’ve talked about it. My win predict prediction, which we’ll get into later in the year, is somewhere around six games. That’s probably where I think the Browns are going to be at. But week one is such a a fluke. like you just never know and you and and teams I mean and part of this also stems from the fact that the Cincinnati Bengals are notorious since while Joe Burrow’s been there um since Zack Taylor’s been there as the head coach for starting the season like 0 and4 this is like the classic this is this this is the the epitome of like what they do like every single year it’s it’s part of their identity at this point that they just get off to slow starts and And I understand they tried to play Joe Burrow more in the preseason this year to combat that and get him sort of more in rhythm, more comfortable, more ready for the for 2025. But I I this is this is part of who they are at this point that they just get off to these slow starts. It’s not always there for them week one and really through the first several weeks of the season. There are just so many teams this time of year that are still trying to figure out who they are. I mean, I even point within the division and you and this is the team that you play week two this year. Obviously, the Baltimore Ravens similar last year started 0 and2 and then obviously rallied to have the great season they had, win the win the division, make the playoffs, all those different things. Um, but I again I just I I I continue to go back to the idea and this is part of the reason why as we’ve talked about this opening stretch of the season, the six games and how tough it is for the Browns. You play all playoff teams except for the Bengals who I still think, you know, they were a French playoff team last year. They’re a good team. They have one of the best quarterbacks in football. Obviously, I respect the fact that that’s that’s part of the equation here and that they are a really really good team. But when this at at this time of year, there’s so much uncertainty and unknown with these teams. It’s the same way like we saw this weekend in college football. Preseason rankings mean very very little in the grand scheme of things because we don’t know enough about these teams. We don’t know. Like some teams use a transfer portal. Some teams got guys that are starting that are new recruits. Like it you just never know. And I think the same thing sometimes applies in the NFL. Year to year, these things can be so different. Year to year, a defense can be really really good and then it can be not as good. Year to year, a an offensive line can be really really good and then not be as good. And there’s tweaks and there’s changes and there’s things that have been done with these rosters. And and I I just like I’m not sitting here acting like anticipating the Bengals pretty much spent this entire off season draped in drama, draped in the drama of of of retaining their own players. It was paying Jamar Chase. It was paying T. Higgins. It was paying Trey Hendrickson finally last week and getting him to show up in that building and be part of this. And that’s all good. That’s great that they did those things. But if they’re keeping their team relatively the same, like it hasn’t like Yeah, you can you can change the the year. You can change the count the year and the calendar, but if you keep everything relatively the same, Tiger doesn’t change its stripes, no pun intended, because it’s a it’s the Bengals. Um like they this is just how they start seasons. they they get off to very slow starts like a lot of teams in the NFL. And I honestly think this is the opportunity for the Browns to sort of steal one steal a game against a team that most people think you don’t have a chance against because it’s Joe Burrow because it’s it’s the the the big bad Cincinnati Bengals who not so long ago were in the Super Bowl. But I I think this team has some flaws in it. I understand Joe Burrow helps you erase a lot of those flaws. Um, and we’re going to talk even more about some of the other things that I think the two the other two reasons why um the the the I think the Browns can can win this game on Sunday and will win this game on Sunday. But I I just believe in my heart of hearts that because this time of year is such a crap shoot and you just don’t know that it could take the Bengals may and maybe offensively they have it figured out and this is what’s going to get interesting is like this could end up being a shootout here and and are the Browns equipped to sort of handle that? But I think based on what we’ve seen this off seasonason, and I’ve said it all all all off season, the Browns need a competent offense. They need their defense to get back to to prominence. I think the defensive line is good enough to help that cause. The secondary when healthy, I think, can hold their own. I just you got to make sure you get those go those guys through a season that, you know, the Denzel Wards, the Greg Newsomes, who’s now playing outside, all that. They got to get through the season. Um, but in the grand scheme of things, like I I I think there’s a chance here that the Browns can get off to a a a fine start and that the Bengals do what they always do and they start slow. And if that happens, it’s the perfect storm for Sunday to be a win for the Browns and to steal one and start this year 1 and 0 leading into this other this the rest of the six game stretch against all these other teams, all these all these teams that made the playoffs. Um, and so part of this specific reason is, yes, draped in the idea of like what history tells us. It’s not anything like X’s and O’s wise about these two teams, which I will get into that a little bit more here, but I I do think that there is there’s a lot of truth in the fact that at at to start seasons, sometimes it takes some some getting up to speed, and the Bengals have been the the epitome of that. is since Zack Taylor got there where they just get off to these slow starts and I can respect the fact that they’re trying to do some things to combat that. But you are who you are and I think at the end of the day I feel confident in saying that it’s going to be the case again. Sunday might be sort of a feeling out. Sunday might be some sort of like figuring things out and the Browns will probably be figuring some things out too. But I think that’s the perfect storm for a Browns team that is going to be competitive but maybe not win a ton of games to sneak in, steal one, shut down Joe Burrow like they’ve done in the past, which is something I will get into next and get yourself a chance to steal a win here to start the season and begin this thing 1 and0 with this tough tough stretch in this tough stretch of the season that we know kicks things off for Cleveland. That’s reason number one. I talked about it a little bit, but the Browns ownage of Joe Burrow is another thing that comes into play in week one, and we’ll talk about that coming up next on the Lockdown Browns podcast. NFL season is back and honestly, there’s nothing better than being in the stadium surrounded by fans cheering on your team. But let’s be honest, getting tickets can be a hassle. between KE, login screens, and price jumps uh at checkout. It’s frustrating. That’s why I use Game Time. 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Download the FanDuel app now by visiting fanduel.com to get started. That’s fuel.com to place your first $5 bet. All right, so we move to reason number two why I think the Browns are going to beat the Bengals on Sunday. And this one all centers around we’re we’re getting into the X’s and O’s here. We’re getting into more of like the matchup itself here. This I get it. Reason number one’s a little I I said week ones can be flukes. We reason number one’s a little fluky. It’s a little like well there is something in the air. You know what I mean? And I get that. I get that. It’s like a vibe thing. And and I still believe that that’s that’s that’s a fact in the NFL that teams tend to struggle in week one. They’re finding their identity. It takes some time. And part of that is that the Browns have tended to own Joe Burrow over the years. Now, I know last year was was rough. Last year was last year Burrow got the best of the the the Browns twice. It was the first time since he’s been here that he has swept the Browns. He’s three and five against them uh in his career. Um, we, you know, we always talk every year about Kevin Stfansky owning Joe Burrow and the Bengals and all those different things. And last year he got the sweep for the first time and that was a bad Browns team. We get it. That and and and I understand where if you’re if you’re going to hear me talk about this, you’re going to say, “Well, it’s a bad Browns team. They returned a lot of those guys from last year.” I get it. But I I again, yeartoear things can change. We know that the some of the parts of that defense can be dominant, and that’s part of this, too. that defensive line group is going to be elite this year. We have highlighted that time and time again and and Joe Burrow has been tormented by Miles Garrett for years now. Um so and and and you throw in the fact that now he has a defensive line to sort of support him across the board. Just waves of defenders kind of coming at him from start to finish in a game. I think it’s the perfect recipe to get him uncomfortable, get him off balance early, force him into some mistakes. He’s gonna have to get rid of the ball very quickly. I I talked last week about how the secondary is the weakness of this defense, and I stand by that. It’s 100% true. That is going to be the thing that they have to overcome the most this season on the defensive side of the ball. if they’re going to get back to dominance, the secondary is going to have to stay healthy and there’s going to have to be some guys that step up in certain spots because that nickel spot is already sort of a weak is is is a big question for this team. It’s a it’s a massive question for this team and so um but with that in mind like week one again feeling things out as we talked about in the first segment like you can get Joe Burrow off balance, you can disrupt things. Miles Garrett can continue to torment him the way that he has over the years and cause some problems for Joe Burrow. He’s going to have to get rid of the ball immensely immensely quickly. And we’ll see if he’s up up for the challenge. That’s maybe the way that he’s able to maybe beat this Browns team week one if he can. I get that he has elite weapons around him. That hasn’t mattered in the past. It hasn’t mattered that he’s had Jamar Chase. It hasn’t mattered that he’s had T. Higgins. The Browns have largely gotten the better of Joe Burrow over this stretch of time with the way that their defense has played because they have Miles Garrett and just because they’ve been able to, you know, disrupt a lot of things that they want to do on offense and especially early in the season when they’re still figuring things out. I think it’s twofold. So, I’ll throw a few numbers at you. Burrow has a 64.6 completion percentage against the Browns. It’s the seventh worst uh in his career against any team. like they they they now 64.6 is still a good completion percentage. I’m not saying it’s bad, but it it’s this again, it’s the fact that it’s the seventh worst. Like they they seem to have better success against him and limiting the damage than other teams. No team has sacked him more. Now, obviously these those numbers are always going to be weighted towards the division opponents, but even within the division, the Ravens and Steelers don’t have more sacks on Joe Burrow than the Browns do. 27 of them. A lot of that is Miles Garrett has seemed to always be right place, right time, making plays on Joe Burrow, causing a lot of problems in the back field. And so we’ll see if he can do that again on Sunday. And I mentioned it already, but he’s three and five against the Browns. The two wins that he had came last year when the Browns obviously was the worst iteration of the Browns since Kevin Stfansky’s been here. And and and so much of of that too, I’ve talked about this before. So much of how bad the Browns were last year was baked in this in the fact that their defense was their their defense got ripped for not being as good last year, but it was more about the offense. That offense was his so historically bad they couldn’t stay on the field. And so you’re giving the defense, you’re not giving the defense a lot of time to catch its breath. you’re giving short fields because you’re turning the football over or you’re you’re turning it over on downs or you’re just not really moving you you’re not you’re not you’re not taking any time off the clock like the defense was asked to do so much last year and I think this year it’s going to at least balance back out to the mean a little bit or a little bit closer to the mean in terms of like what average teams are doing and and with with their offense being able to at least score give you some sustainable drives that’s one like like no matter how you feel about Joe Flacco No matter how you feel about the Browns this year and what their offense is going to bring to the table and if you think he’s going to be the starter for 17 games, like while he’s starting, the one thing you can count on is that he is going to be able to sustain drives. He’s going to be able to move the Browns up and down the field effectively to some degree. I’m not saying it’s always going to end in points. I’m not saying it’s always going to be pretty. I’m not saying there’s not going to be the interceptions in there because Joe Flacco throws interceptions. But to be able to to just simply move the football and give your defense time to catch its breath, I mean, that’s going to be night and day from what we saw last year with the offense that that Ken Dorsy put together for Deshun Watson that was a complete and utter disaster. So, I’m anticipating that that’s going to be the case. I think Flacco can have some success obviously with this team and the offense is going to sort of help the defense in that way. And so because of that, I think they’re going to have even more opportunities in week one to feast on on this Bengals offense and try to shut down Joe Burrow as they tend to do. Um I’m sure like they they get they they generate a lot of pressure on Joe Burrow. They’re up there in that stat as well. Like this is a defense that has always seemed to have success against Joe Burrow. I know people are probably going to look and say, “Well, he figured it out last year.” In some ways, I’m not going to say I throw out last year completely, but in some ways, I take last year and I say all-time bad Browns performance for an entirety of a season. I’m not going to re I’m not going to put so much stock in that that I that I think like they can’t get back to dominating him this year. Um, because of it, I I I I feel confident that the Browns are are going to be able to have some success against Burrow the way that they have in the past, that that Miles Garrett can wreak havoc again, and that they’ll make life hard for him on Sunday. And when they do that, they tend to be in games, have a chance to win those games, and frankly beat the Bengals. So, I I just think there’s a history here that tells us that Joe Burrow struggles against this defense and you know, Jim Schwarz is going to throw a lot at him. Um, and and I think, you know, Joe Burrow’s great, so I’m sure he’ll pick some things up along the way, but yes, like I I think they’re ready for that challenge, especially as I’ve said relating back to the first thing as they try to work through some things and figure some things out. Like Burrow was great last year, end of the season, he was on a roll and that was what led to him being like the MVP candidate that people thought he should be because they couldn’t lose. Like they went they they ended the season on like that fivegame win streak, whatever. They weren’t playing a lot of good teams. The best team they played was the Broncos, but he was rolling, right? It it’s going to take some time for him to get there. I don’t envision him just starting the year like that. Even though they tried to sort of get that rolling with him playing in the preseason, I think this Browns defense has a chance to really disrupt some things because Bro tends to get off to slow starts. This offense tends to get off to slow starts. The Bengals in general tend to get off to slow starts. And so it’s the perfect storm for Bro to struggle, Browns defense to dominate, Miles Garrett to dominate, and this team get get off to a good get off on a good foot with a the Browns that is with a win against the Cincinnati Bengals. Um I feel that way about it. I think there’s history that tells us that can happen and that’s how I’m kind of approaching this game. Now, like I said, it’ll be it’ll be interesting if this becomes a shootout because Burrow could like the secondary susceptible especially as one guy goes down and if Burrow is able to pick him apart and get rid of the ball quickly, like I said, that’s going to be the key. Can he get rid of the ball very, very quickly? And if he can, then yeah, there’s going to be some problems for the Browns um in trying to beat this team, especially on the other side where the offense probably I don’t know if they can hold hold serve and like the Browns aren’t built to win shootouts with this receiving core and all that. So, we’ll see if they if that’s what it becomes, but I think that the defense is going to make life very very difficult for Joe Burrow as they’ve done in the past, as those numbers I read off suggest. And so because of that, I’m I’m I’m feeling good about a Browns win here in week one. One final reason why I think the Browns are going to beat the Bengals, and it all centers around the Bengals defense this time. Boy oh boy, is that is that unit bad. We’ll talk about it coming up on the Lockown Bronze podcast. We have an important request here at Locked On. We want to hear from you. We put together a survey to learn more about our listeners and make your favorite podcast even better. This is your chance to tell us what you like, what you don’t, and answer questions about our advertising. Go to lockdownpodcast.com/servey to get started. Everyone who completes the survey will be entered for a chance to win one of 10 $100 Amazon gift cards. Again, that’s lockdownpodcast.com/servey. You can also find the link in the show notes. Thanks for helping us out. This episode is presented by Yahoo Fantasy. The NFL season is right around the corner and you can feel the buzz. Fantasy football season is here. Everyone’s researching, drafting, and building their championship squads. If you haven’t joined a league yet, now is the time. It’s all happening at Yahoo Fantasy. I’m playing Yahoo Fantasy and you should too. Whether you’re a first-time or a veteran creating your millionth league, this season kicks off coming up Thursday, September 4th. So, now is the time to start playing Yahoo Fantasy, which offers so many ways to compete. Want to play or you want more ways to play? 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That’s 50% off your first year at monarchmoney.com with code lockedon NFL. All right, final segment, final thought, final reason why I believe the Browns are going to beat the Bengals on Sunday. And this one centers around something specific to the Bengals. We talked about the Browns defense generally being able to to limit and control um uh Joe Burrow and how Miles Garrett has been a nightmare for him over the years. Well, the same thing applies. I no, actually, I take it back. It’s It’s a different thing for the Bengals, whose defense, in my estimation, is going to be equally as bad, if not worse, than it was a year ago. And that’s the big problem that they’re going to have to overcome. I get that they paid Joe Burrow last season. I get that they paid their two top receivers and they kept this group intact and he’s got some of the best weapons, if not the best weapons in the NFL because of it. That’s all great. That’s great. Great news. Awesome. But I’ll tell you what, man. You can’t win in this league with just offense. And the the Bengals are proof of that last year because they lost a number of games because they couldn’t win shootouts because they couldn’t get anybody off the field. They lost to the Ravens a couple times that way. They lost a couple other games that way. And so this Bengals defense is as it was was bad last year and they’re poised to be bad again. Last year they gave up 25.5 points per game last year. was 25th in the NFL, one of the worst. The Browns were slightly below them. But like I I again I think this defense is poised to at least be better than last year and some of that was because they were on the field so long. This Bengals defense I don’t look around and see many changes that make me think like oh they’re it’s all going to be magically fixed now this year. They gave up 3,800 passing yards. That was 12th most in the NFL. 30 touchdowns through the air which was fourth most in the NFL. they can be had um through the pass game based off of last year’s numbers and frankly and this is from I was reading uh an article in the athletic about the Bengals and their preseason numbers against the run have been less than op like they’ve been suboptimal. They have not been good. Um I’ll read you this blurb here real quick just to kind of give you a sense of of where things are at. The run defense has looked horrendous. This is a get from the Athletic. For the second week in a row in two games, the starting Bengals defense has allowed 13 carries for 141 yards. That’s 10.8 yards per carry, including five red zone carries. Also, they played against the Eagles backups in week one. So, they are just get they were getting gashed in the preseason by backups. And this was the this again, I understand like context, preseason, all those things matter, but we’re talking about the Bengals starting defense. Yes, without Trey Hendrickson, but the Bengals starting defense against backups of other teams like the Eagles, for example, and they were getting absolutely gashed. That’s not good. And I know Trey Hendrickson’s back now. He’s back in the fold. He he’s he’s going to be there this weekend. Um I’m imagining he’s going to play. I mean, he’s he he has stayed in football shape and all that, I would imagine. So, I’m not I may I maybe he’s on some sort of snap restriction. I don’t know that I have the full information on that, but I think he’s probably just going to play straight up and there’s not going to even be a question. That’s my assumption. And so, that’s great. He helps with some things. He helps generate a better pass rush than what the Bengals would have otherwise. But, is he going to be this like run stopper? Probably not. I’m not banking on that. He doesn’t change the outlook of this defense in in a major way. And frankly, he was there last year when they were getting absolutely just scorched by by teams particularly in the passing game. And and I don’t know like yeah they changed out some pieces and parts like last year Von Bell was there as their strong safety. This year they have Jordan Battle. Uh Gino Stone is still there. He’s a great player. Cam Taylor Brit is still there but like Dax Hill was is their nickel corner. Maybe he’s an upgrade from Mike Hilton who obviously had a rough year. Josh Newton was there last year. Now it’s DJ Turn. Like, so they have some new parts and pieces. Do I think it’s enough to make me to give me confidence that they’re all of a sudden going to be this like dominant defensive group to complement their electric offense with Joe Burrow? No. They are they still have a lot of flaws in that side of the ball. And it goes back to what I said. This offseason for them was built around and the the whole plan was built around retaining their own. They had to pay Jamar Chase. They had to pay T. Higgins. They had to pay uh Trey Hendrickson. They got all those deals done. so great. They kept cornerstone players in place, but as a team that’s broke and doesn’t have money, they didn’t exactly go out and like upgrade a lot of other positions on the defense and in and even some other places that make you feel like they’re going to just be this dominant force now on that side of the ball. They were bad against the pass last year. The preseason was not a good sample of what they could be against the run. I think there is a lot of room for the Browns offense to like this is honestly like the perfect game, the perfect matchup from a defensive standpoint for the offense to go against an offense that we have questions about, you know, how talented are they? Can Joe Flacco really replicate 2023 and get back to playing that way? Like this is if if you’re looking for a game or a defense to like get right against or start hot against, it’s the Bengals. Their defense is very very susceptible to to, you know, both the run and the pass. And and I I talked about throughout the preseason like wanting to see just a little bit more from that Browns run game, they could they could absolutely just like shred this Bengals defense in the run game potentially. And then with with what Joe Flaca, what we know he brings to the table, what he can do, he could absolutely pick apart the secondary and the defense. And so I said I don’t think the Browns can win a shootout. They’re gonna have to limit Joe Burrow. But if they can keep it close, like there’s enough there’s enough runway there that if the if the Browns defense can slow down Burrow and the the Browns offense is at least scoring and doing some things, like this defense, it can be can be absolut it’s susceptible. They can absolutely be be had and there’s going to be some opportunities there for this Browns offense to do some things. And it’s a great way to maybe start the season if they’re able to because they can get off to a little bit of a fast start potentially here and set themselves up to have some momentum going into week two. Again, teams are trying to find their identity this time of year, the Browns included. But it’s it’s nice if you can start hot, then you kind of get you set yourself up for success in earlier on. And frankly, with the schedule that the Browns have, it’s a it would be it would be advantageous to start that way and get off to a hot start offensively, especially because you put yourself in position to maybe steal a couple games during this tough stretch and maybe get off to a better start than people are anticipating. But yeah, man, it’s it’s this Bengals defense is going to be bad again this year in my estimation. And I’m anticipating we see that on Sunday and I think it’s why there’s an opportunity for the Browns to steal one here in week one. Another episode down with you dogpound. Getting the week started on a on a high talking about the Browns winning their first game of the season, beating the Bengals on Sunday. If you liked what you heard, make sure you hit that subscribe button and make Lockdown Browns your first listen every day wherever you get your podcast and at the Locked Ons YouTube channel. For your second listen, check out Locked On Fantasy Football with Vinnie Liar and Michelle Maduk and listen and prep for your fantasy draft and become the most informed manager in your league if you haven’t yet had yours. Also, you can also make your second listen locked on Cass, locked on Guardians. Keep it local if you so choose. Thank you for being on every day at the Locked on Podcast Network. Talk to you again real real soon, Cleveland. See you.

Can the Cleveland Browns stun the Cincinnati Bengals? Spencer German predicts a stunning Week 1 upset for the Browns for three key reasons.

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4 comments
  1. No turnovers from the offense.
    And the defense needs to start holding on to the gift interceptions and fumbles. They need to start flipping the turnover number.
    I would feel better about them if they had Judkins early on for the 6 game run. He may not be there against the Ravens, either.

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