What Happens if Giddey Holds Out and Opts NOT To Play to Start the Season?

What Happens if Giddey Holds Out and Opts NOT To Play to Start the Season?

We have entered the month of September, which means we are now less than a month away before the deadline for Josh Giddy to accept his qualifying offer from the Chicago Bulls to reach a new deal on an extension. And actually, that doesn’t just apply to Giddy, but rather all the other remaining restrictive free agents in Kaminga, Grimes, and Camp Thomas. But as the days slowly drag on and we get closer and closer to the start of training camp and that deadline for Josh Giddy, it does mean things are going to start getting more and more interesting as we approach the October 1st deadline to see who blinks first in this standoff between Giddy’s camp and the Chicago Bulls, who by all accounts still remain about $10 million apart on a deal annually. Not $10 million total on new contract, but 10 million per year, which is pretty significant, especially when time now is no longer on your side for each party to remain firm on your position. And while we’ve talked about Josh Giddy and his impending contract quite a bit this off seasonason, discussed the host of scenarios that could play out when it comes to his next contract. One scenario we have not discussed and it’s probably just because it’s so out there in my opinion very unlikely but a scenario that has been gaining traction after Sam Vini of the Athletic mentioned this on one of his recent pod interviews and that’s this notion that Josh Giddy simply put could hold out not sign anything with the Bulls until he gets the deal he wants which would mean sitting out games and not playing until he gets the deal that he wants. How would that actually work? Is there a chance that this scenario could actually play out? Well, let’s talk about it. So, what’s going on everyone? and you’re listening to Bull Central here. Hope you’re all doing well. This episode is brought to you by Prize Picks. 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That’s code Bull Central to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup. Prize picks. It’s good to be right. And let me know what pick you guys end up making as well. Now, before I go into what it would look like if Giddy were to hold out and refuse to sign the qualifying offer or whatever the Bulls offer is by October 1st, and I know most of you already know this, especially if you’ve watched my prior videos, but for those that are new or just kind of getting into the financial side of basketball and are asking, well, what is the qualifying offer? What does that mean for Giddy and why he has until October 1st to accept said offer? So, the qualifying offer is an offer that is made by a team to their restricted free agent. Restricted meaning the player, the free agent, has the ability to go out and get offers from other teams around the league, and their current team, in this case, the Bulls with Josh Giddy, has the ability to match the highest offer to retain the player. This gives teams the upper hand and leverage in keeping the players they drafted or traded for when they were still on their rookie scale deals. The qualifying offer is a one-year deal that is scaled up from their rookie contract. Think of it as a fifth year option added to their four-year rookie contract. The qualifying offer enables the team to maintain the free agents restricted status, and it enables the player to take the one-year deal if they’re not able to get the kind of deal they want as a free agent that summer and become an unrestricted free agent the following summer to try and get a better deal at that point in time. go wherever they want, take advantage of a hopefully increased salary cap, but more importantly, hope they ball out in a contract year, and get paid more than what they would have otherwise gotten by signing an extension the previous year. For Josh Kitty, his one-year qualifying offer sits at $1.1 million, which is still a good amount of money that he could just accept, play on, and hope he gets something much greater than what the Bulls are reportedly offering him at $20 million. And that is possible given the fact that there are going to be more teams that will have cap space in 2026. The Bulls could obviously offer him more money at that point in time as well, depending on how he plays. And so Giddy could just make up those lost earnings from playing on the qualifying offer for this upcoming year. The challenge for Giddy, though, and I’m sure it’s why he’s hesitant on taking this one-year offer, is that nothing is guaranteed in this league. You don’t know if you’re going to have a major injury that severely impacts your value when you become an unrestricted free agent in 2026. you could very well have a poor performing year to the point where teams are no longer interested in making you an offer and you’re now faced with having to take less than what the Bulls were willing to give you as a restricted free agent. And of course, at the end of the day, it’s still a lot of guaranteed money you’re leaving on the table. Like even if the Bulls are only offering Giddy 3 or $60 million, which I believe Giddy is worth more than that, that’s not a good offer for Josh Giddy. But $60 million guaranteed versus just 11.1 is hard to pass up. I don’t care how you slice it because again, nothing is guaranteed to Giddy for the following off season when you don’t know how this season is going to play out. But anyway, that’s what Giddy has to decide by October 1st, taking that one-year qualifying offer or accepting whatever the Bull’s latest offer is at that point in time. Otherwise, the qualifying offer is rescended and Giddy is then without a contract going into training camp and into the season and is not getting paid at all until him and the Bulls work out a deal. Now, that’s where this scenario comes in and that Sam Vini talked about is what Giddy can essentially do is letting that deadline pass and just hold out, doesn’t play until the Bulls give him the offer he wants. Essentially sacrificing salary, sacrificing a paycheck in the short term while the season starts to ensure he gets the dollars that he wants moving forward. Big David CGO called this the nuclear option of the ongoing Josh Giddy saga. And it really is because it would be unprecedented for Giddy to go this route. something we’ve never seen a restricted free agent do in the NBA where they go this route of being without a contract and not playing while contract negotiations continue. Now, in this scenario, it does give Giddy some leverage, something he hasn’t had all summer because as much as the Bulls want to keep him, given they traded Caruso to get him, the Bulls have held all the cards knowing no team around the league has cap space to sign him and also knowing that Giddy signing the qualifying offer carries with the inherent risk that I just mentioned. But what if the qualifying offer was no longer in the equation? What if Giddy said, “Screw the qualifying offer. I’m letting the deadline pass. I’m not signing anything. I’ll just sit out and see how things play out until the Bulls get serious and come to me with a proper offer that I believe equates to the value that I bring.” Because look, we know the Bulls want to win games. Whether we as fans like that or not, the Bulls desire is to still try and go out there and win games. Giddy knows this. and he knows the Bull’s ability to win as many games without him is going to be much harder to do. Giddy’s sitting out when he doesn’t have a contract means he wouldn’t be getting fined for not playing. So, in this case, Giddy throws it back at the Bulls and says, “Give me a more compelling offer or I’m not playing and we lose more games.” The Bulls don’t want it to get to that state. Let’s be real. It’s bad optics when you have your marquee free agent holding out on a team and turning the tables around and holding you hostage when it was previously the other way around. It’s also not good for the overall relationship between Giddy and the organization to have it come to this. Like I’ve said so many times this offseason, as much as this is a business, you also have to factor in the human element of this and consider how this is going to impact the morale of the players and how it affects their play on the court. Here’s the thing, though. As much as this nuclear scenario is possible, yes, Josh Giddy can hold out, not play, and wait for the deal he wants to come to him. And yes, this would give him some leverage if him and his camp make any kind of indication that that’s their intention if the Bulls don’t come to them with a better offer between now and then. But at the end of the day, there is no way this is going to happen. I would be shocked if the Bulls open up training camp and Giddy hasn’t been signed to a new deal. Like, you have to remember this is a lot of money we’re talking about here. Even just the $1.1 million qualifying offer that Giddy would let pass him by, that’s money most of us won’t even make in our lifetimes. And for Giddy or any NBA player for that matter that is this young in their career, when they’re already starting to make that money, those millions of dollars when they weren’t making anything before that, to have that abruptly stop of your own choosing, it’s not like Giddy is just not good enough to be in the league and can’t make it beyond his rookie contract. No, he’s good enough to actually get a second contract. But to go from making near $1 million a month and just letting that go all in the hopes of getting the contract you want is just not going to happen. The other major risk Giddy runs into all of this is what if the Bulls actually do well without him? What happens if they look good while Giddy is holding out and the Bulls are like, “Hey, we might not even need this guy. Why are we going to pay him what he wants at $30 million a year when we have a decent team right now with tons of cap space going into next season? Let’s just hold off. hold firm on our offer or let him walk if he still doesn’t want it. But on top of that, while I don’t doubt Giddy would still be, you know, working on his game, keeping in shape, and practicing during this hypothetical holdout period, but the longer and longer this drags out where he’s not playing actual NBA basketball, not playing in actual NBA games, not developing, not showcasing what he can do, then that becomes a problem where it impacts his value going into next off season, which again is counterproductive when it comes to his whole reason for doing this is to not play, hold out, lose salary and earnings for a bigger long-term payday. So, yeah, I just I really can’t see Giddy taking such a massive risk of foregoing salary for any period of time, opting not to play, not get paid, loses rhythm of being out there and playing in games and taking this kind of hit at such a young stage in his career, all in the hopes of trying to secure more money when it’s possible. You still might not even get the contract you’re looking for if you go down this route. I just really don’t see it. It would be an interesting leverage play on the part of Josh Giddy and his representation to take it to this level. And yes, I’m sure the Bulls would feel some pressure to try and get a deal done before it gets to this point. But they’re not simply just going to cave when they really don’t have to when the risk is much greater for Giddy to take it this far than it is for the Bulls. I still believe the Bulls will come to an agreement as that October 1st deadline near likely somewhere in the 23 to 25 million per year range on a 3 to 5year deal. The parties will meet somewhere in the middle once push comes to shove. Like I said, I would be shocked if Giddy has not signed a new deal or the qualifying offer by the time October 2nd rolls around. But let me know what you guys think of this whole scenario where Giddy holds out and opts not to play while contract negotiations continue heading into the season. Let me know in the comments. As always guys, be sure to subscribe and I will see you in the next one.

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Discussing the scenario of Josh Giddey holding out and not playing going into the season to get the deal he wants from the Bulls

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